Icf International (ICFI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.21B
• Dividend Yield: 0.65%
• Average Volume (3M): 160.18K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.52
• Revenue Growth: -3.81%
• EPS Growth: -7.05%
• Country: US
• Employees: 9,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Consulting Services
• EPS (TTM): 1.47
• Shares Outstanding: 18,273,280
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 169,607
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 160,182
• PEG Ratio: -1.11
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.52
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.83
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.48
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.96
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.63
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.90
• 1Y Price Target: $105.25
• Price Target Upside: 58.58% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 7.04
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.91B

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $70.00 ▲(5.47% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/06/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/06/26

The score is anchored by steady underlying financial quality (positive cash generation and improving leverage) and constructive 2026 guidance driven by strong non-federal demand. These positives are tempered by weak current technicals (broad downtrend with negative MACD) and the 2025 operating deterioration/federal revenue headwinds that add near-term uncertainty.

Positive Factors

Diversified revenue mix — non‑federal growth

A sustained shift toward non‑federal clients and double‑digit commercial energy growth reduces reliance on volatile federal procurement cycles. This structural mix change supports steadier demand, higher margin work, and repeatable commercial pipelines, improving revenue durability across a 2–6 month horizon and beyond.

Backlog and pipeline provide revenue visibility

A $3.4B backlog (≈50% funded), book‑to‑bill >1 and an $8.6B pipeline give multi‑period revenue visibility and support booked near‑term growth. These durable commercial metrics underpin steadier utilization planning and cash conversion, helping dampen quarter‑to‑quarter volatility from procurement timing.

Consistent cash generation and deleveraging

Positive operating and free cash flow combined with declining adjusted leverage signal improving balance sheet resilience. Reliable cash generation funds working capital, discretionary investment, buybacks and dividends, enhancing financial flexibility and lowering refinancing risk over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Material federal revenue decline

Sharp federal revenue contractions create durable top‑line risk because federal work historically comprised a large portion of revenue and is prone to contract cancellations and procurement delays. Recovery is guided only by Q4 2026, leaving prolonged volatility and uncertainty in funded pipeline and utilization.

Profitability and EBITDA volatility

Reported negative gross profit in 2025 and inconsistent adjusted EBITDA dollar commentary indicate underlying execution and margin control issues. Persistent margin weakness can compress free cash flow and limit reinvestment capacity, making earnings less predictable through contract mix and cost pressures.

Meaningful absolute debt and rising interest expense

Although leverage metrics are improving, substantial absolute debt and higher interest expense (partly from buybacks and acquisitions) reduce financial flexibility. With earnings volatility from federal headwinds, debt service requirements could constrain capital allocation and increase sensitivity to slower cash flow.

Icf International Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ICF International, Inc. provides management, marketing, technology, and policy consulting and implementation services to government and commercial clients in the United States and internationally. It researches critical policy, industry, stakeholder issues, trends, and behaviors; measures and evaluates results and their impact; and provides strategic planning and advisory services to its clients on how to navigate societal, market, business, communication, and technology challenges. The company also identifies, defines, and implements policies, plans, programs, and business tools through a range of standard and customized methodologies for its clients; conducts survey research; collects and analyzes various data to understand critical issues and options for its clients; and provides actionable business intelligence, as well as information and data management solutions that allow integrated and purpose-driven data usage. In addition, it provides solutions to optimize the customer and citizen experience; modernizes IT systems; and cyber security solutions that support the range of cyber security missions and protect IT infrastructures in the face of relentless threats, as well as designs, develops, and implements technology systems and business tools that are principal to its clients' mission or business performance. Further, the company informs and engages its clients' constituents, customers, and employees through public relations, branding and marketing, multichannel and strategic communications, and reputation issues management. It serves energy, environment, and infrastructure; health, education, and social programs; safety and security; and consumer and financial markets. The company was formerly known as ICF Consulting Group Holdings, LLC and changed its name to ICF International, Inc. in 2006. ICF International, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Fairfax, Virginia.

How the Company Makes Money

ICF primarily makes money by delivering contracted professional services and technology solutions, with revenue recognized as work is performed under client contracts. A significant portion of its revenue is generated from U.S. federal government agencies and other public-sector entities through competitively awarded contracts and task orders to provide consulting, research and evaluation, program management, and implementation services (for example, administering or supporting large-scale public programs in areas such as energy efficiency, environmental and climate initiatives, public health, and disaster recovery). ICF also earns revenue from commercial and international clients by providing advisory services and technology/digital delivery (including systems design, development, modernization, data/analytics, and related managed or ongoing support where contracted). Key revenue streams therefore include (1) labor-based professional services billed under time-and-materials or labor-hour arrangements, (2) fixed-price or deliverable-based project work, and (3) technology/digital engagements that may include build and ongoing operations/support components when included in the contract scope. The company’s earnings are influenced by its ability to win and renew government contract vehicles and task orders, maintain backlog, staff projects effectively, and manage utilization and project execution; material changes in government spending priorities, procurement timing, and recompete outcomes can also affect revenue. Specific named partnerships or partner revenue contributions: null.

Icf International Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials reflect a stable services business with manageable/improving leverage and consistently positive operating and free cash flow. Offsetting this, 2025 showed clear operational deterioration (revenue decline and notable profitability pressure), and cash flow momentum softened, which raises near-term execution risk.

Income Statement

Revenue growth has been uneven: solid growth in 2022–2023, modest growth in 2024, and a decline in 2025. Profitability is generally steady with net margins in the ~3.6%–5.5% range, but 2025 shows notable pressure with a reported negative gross profit and weaker EBITDA margin versus prior years, despite remaining profitable at the net income line. Overall, the income statement reflects a stable but not high-growth profile, with a clear profitability concern in the most recent year.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears manageable and improving, with debt-to-equity trending down from higher levels in 2021–2022 to ~0.56 in 2025, alongside rising equity. Returns on equity are steady (roughly mid-to-high single digits to low double digits), indicating consistent profitability relative to the capital base. The main weakness is that debt remains meaningful in absolute terms, which can limit flexibility if earnings volatility increases.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow and free cash flow are consistently positive across all periods, and free cash flow generally tracks net income well (free cash flow running at ~0.82–0.90 of net income). However, cash generation has softened recently, with free cash flow down in 2025 and an operating cash flow-to-net income relationship that is not especially strong, suggesting working-capital swings or timing effects. Overall cash flow quality is good, but momentum is weaker in the latest year.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.87B	2.02B	1.96B	1.78B	1.55B
Gross Profit	637.87M	737.77M	698.22M	645.54M	573.48M
EBITDA	178.56M	221.12M	196.97M	157.18M	142.04M
Net Income	91.59M	110.17M	82.61M	64.24M	71.13M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.05B	2.07B	2.01B	2.09B	1.85B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.30M	4.96M	9.45M	11.26M	8.25M
Total Debt	571.34M	602.27M	642.67M	776.39M	648.31M
Total Liabilities	1.02B	1.08B	1.09B	1.24B	1.05B
Stockholders Equity	1.03B	982.46M	917.59M	853.21M	803.47M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	120.21M	150.11M	130.05M	137.73M	90.27M
Operating Cash Flow	141.87M	171.54M	152.38M	162.21M	110.20M
Investing Cash Flow	-21.51M	-74.81M	-3.67M	-258.84M	-194.48M
Financing Cash Flow	-84.31M	-86.90M	-152.59M	90.37M	23.23M

Icf International Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 66.37
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ICFI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 66.37 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 74.54, below the 50-day MA of 83.70, and below the 200-day MA of 86.93, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -4.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 26.50 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.70 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ICFI.

Icf International Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HURN	71 Outperform	$2.15B	28.72	21.03%	―	12.50%	29.40%
FCN	68 Neutral	$5.18B	19.86	13.30%	―	-0.95%	-10.54%
CRAI	67 Neutral	$1.06B	24.31	26.10%	0.97%	8.69%	34.58%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
ICFI	60 Neutral	$1.21B	17.06	9.11%	0.65%	-3.81%	-7.05%
RGP	48 Neutral	$126.97M	-3.17	-59.80%	6.74%	-10.83%	-1669.11%
FORR	46 Neutral	$115.44M	-1.29	-80.76%	―	-8.73%	-1168.15%

Icf International Corporate Events

ICF International Showcases Sustainability Leadership at Investor Summit

ICF International announced on March 5, 2026, that President Anne Choate and Senior Vice President of Energy, Environment and Infrastructure Strategy David Pickles would participate in a virtual fireside chat at the Canaccord Genuity Second Annual Virtual Sustainability Summit. The event, scheduled for 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time on Thursday, March 12, 2026, was to be accessible via live webcast, with a replay available for 90 days following the conference.

The company’s presence at the sustainability-focused investor forum underscores its efforts to highlight its expertise in energy, environment and infrastructure to the financial community. By featuring senior leadership at a high-profile ESG-oriented summit, ICF aimed to reinforce its positioning as a key player in sustainability advisory and technology solutions, potentially deepening engagement with investors and stakeholders focused on climate and infrastructure trends.

The most recent analyst rating on (ICFI) stock is a Buy with a $102.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Icf International stock, see the ICFI Stock Forecast page.

ICF International Declares Quarterly Dividend Amid Strategic Shift

ICF reported that in the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, commercial, state and local, and international government revenues grew strongly, with commercial energy revenues up 23% in Q4 and 24% for the year, helping these markets reach 57% of annual revenues. This shift toward higher-margin commercial energy work, alongside effective cost management and a revenue mix dominated by fixed price and time-and-materials contracts, allowed the company to largely preserve margins despite a 7.3% full-year revenue decline.

Fourth-quarter 2025 revenue fell to $443.7 million and full-year revenue to $1.87 billion, as U.S. federal government revenue dropped 35.1% in Q4, reflecting contract funding curtailments, fewer RFPs and a 43-day government shutdown. Net income decreased to $17.3 million in Q4 and $91.6 million for the year, yet adjusted EBITDA margin held at 10.4% for the quarter and 11.1% for the year, supported by an expanding commercial energy portfolio, a $3.4 billion backlog, a 1.19 book-to-bill ratio and continued investment in AI-enabled and other growth services.

On February 26, 2026, ICF’s board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.14 per share, payable April 14, 2026, to shareholders of record on March 27, 2026. The board noted that future dividends will remain subject to its discretion and will depend on earnings, financial conditions, capital needs and other factors, underscoring a balanced approach to capital returns following a year in which the company also repurchased about 564,000 shares.

The most recent analyst rating on (ICFI) stock is a Buy with a $102.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Icf International stock, see the ICFI Stock Forecast page.