Heron Therapeutics (HRTX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $154.09M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.77M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.05
• Revenue Growth: 12.60%
• EPS Growth: 58.23%
• Country: US
• Employees: 122
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.02
• Shares Outstanding: 188,537,140
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,900,953
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,774,836
• PEG Ratio: -0.31
• Price to Book (P/B): 15.12
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.40
• P/FCF Ratio: -7.77
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.56
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.56
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.12
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -19.94
• 1Y Price Target: $4.50
• Price Target Upside: 435.71% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.02
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $171.73M

• Rating: 48 Neutral
• Price Target: $0.83 ▼(-0.95% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/27/26

The score is held back primarily by balance-sheet leverage and ongoing negative operating/free cash flow, despite meaningful profitability improvement. Technicals are also bearish (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting these, the latest earnings call was supportive with EBITDA-positive guidance and clear Acute Care momentum, but risks (Oncology decline, pricing pressure, multi-year PFS timeline, litigation) keep the overall score below average.

Positive Factors

High gross margins & improved profitability

Sustained ~73% gross margins and a materially improved adjusted EBITDA indicate durable unit economics and better cost control. High product gross margins provide structural resilience to pricing pressure, support reinvestment in sales, and improve the path to sustained positive cash generation as revenues scale.

Acute care commercial momentum

Robust ZYNRELEF and APONVIE adoption, plus permanent J-codes and guideline inclusion, reduce reimbursement and workflow barriers. These structural commercial wins and dedicated hospital sales efforts increase durable addressable market penetration and raise the odds of sustained revenue growth in acute care.

Completed 2025 financing improved capital flexibility

Closing a financing that removed a prior overhang materially reduces near-term refinancing risk and provides runway for targeted commercial investments. This strengthens the company's ability to fund growth initiatives and execute commercialization plans without immediate dilutive or distressed capital raises.

Negative Factors

High leverage and negative cash flow

Very elevated leverage and persistently negative operating and free cash flow materially constrain financial flexibility. High debt relative to a thin equity base increases refinancing and covenant risk, likely necessitating continued external capital or strict cost containment if revenue growth slows.

Oncology franchise headwinds (SUSTOL wind-down)

A planned product wind-down that reduces a large, established revenue stream weakens the baseline sales profile and increases reliance on nascent acute care growth. Losing a substantial oncology contribution is a structural headwind that lengthens the timeline to self-sustaining cash flow absent offsetting uptake elsewhere.

CINVANTI pricing pressure and litigation uncertainty

Competitive dynamics and expected clinic-side price erosion threaten a core oncology supportive-care product's volume-to-revenue conversion. Concurrent pending litigation adds legal and market-access uncertainty, creating a durable risk to revenue stability and potential incremental costs or market-share loss.

Heron Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Heron Therapeutics, Inc., a biotechnology company, engages in developing treatments to address unmet patient needs. The company's product candidates utilize its proprietary Biochronomer, a drug delivery technology, which delivers therapeutic levels of a range of short-acting pharmacological agents over a period from days to weeks with a single administration. It offers SUSTOL (granisetron), an extended-release injection for the prevention of acute and delayed nausea and vomiting associated with moderately emetogenic chemotherapy, or anthracycline and cyclophosphamide combination chemotherapy regimens; and CINVANTI, an intravenous formulation of aprepitant, a substance P/neurokinin-1 receptor antagonist for the prevention of acute and delayed nausea and vomiting associated with highly emetogenic cancer chemotherapy, as well as nausea and vomiting associated with moderately emetogenic cancer chemotherapy. The company is also developing ZYNRELEF, a dual-acting local anesthetic that delivers a fixed-dose combination of the local anesthetic bupivacaine and a low dose of the nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug meloxicam; HTX-019, an investigational agent for the prevention of postoperative nausea and vomiting; and HTX-034 for postoperative pain management, as well as is in Phase Ib/II clinical study in patients undergoing bunionectomy. The company was formerly known as A.P. Pharma, Inc. and changed its name to Heron Therapeutics, Inc. in January 2014. Heron Therapeutics, Inc. was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Heron Therapeutics primarily makes money by selling its prescription pharmaceutical products in the United States. Revenue is generated when hospitals, outpatient surgical centers, oncology clinics, wholesalers, and other healthcare channel partners purchase Heron’s branded drugs (e.g., ZYNRELEF, APONVIE, and CINVANTI); demand is driven by procedure volume (surgical cases and chemotherapy administrations), provider adoption, formulary placement, and reimbursement dynamics. The company’s reported product revenue is typically recognized net of deductions such as wholesaler/distributor fees, product returns, rebates, chargebacks, and other price concessions that are common in U.S. pharma contracting. In addition to direct product sales, Heron may earn collaboration, licensing, or other partnership-related income if such arrangements are in place; null.

Heron Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating performance is improving materially (gross margin ~72–73%, losses narrowed sharply and EBIT near breakeven), but fundamentals are still constrained by weak balance-sheet and cash-flow quality (high leverage vs. small equity base and negative TTM operating/free cash flow). Revenue also declined ~12.4% TTM, adding near-term top-line risk.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is $154.9M, down 12.4% versus the prior year, but the company has materially improved profitability versus earlier years. Gross margin remains strong (~72% TTM), and losses have narrowed sharply (TTM net loss of ~$20.2M vs. ~$110.6M in 2023 and ~$182.0M in 2022), with EBIT close to breakeven TTM. Key weakness is that the company is still unprofitable and top-line momentum turned negative after growth in 2022–2024.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is high relative to the equity base. TTM total debt is ~$140.6M while stockholders’ equity is only ~$14.3M, implying very elevated leverage (debt-to-equity ~9.4x). Equity has also been volatile (negative in 2023–2024, positive in 2025), which adds balance-sheet risk. A positive is that total debt declined versus 2023–2024 (~$178–$180M range), but overall capitalization remains thin for the level of debt.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains a clear pressure point. TTM operating cash flow is negative (~-$27.6M) and free cash flow is also negative (~-$27.9M), with TTM free cash flow deterioration versus the prior year. While cash burn has improved significantly from 2021–2023 levels, the business is not yet self-funding, increasing reliance on external capital or continued operational improvement.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	154.90M	144.28M	127.04M	107.67M	86.35M
Gross Profit	113.56M	105.64M	61.94M	52.80M	40.33M
EBITDA	-17.88M	-5.06M	-103.79M	-176.66M	-215.25M
Net Income	-20.20M	-13.58M	-110.56M	-182.02M	-220.68M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	255.88M	233.15M	222.51M	250.95M	305.71M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	46.63M	59.28M	80.41M	84.85M	157.58M
Total Debt	140.64M	177.76M	179.63M	157.48M	159.50M
Total Liabilities	241.54M	266.80M	256.48M	237.38M	228.14M
Stockholders Equity	14.33M	-33.65M	-33.97M	13.57M	77.57M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-27.91M	-24.23M	-60.33M	-148.74M	-206.38M
Operating Cash Flow	-27.59M	-22.53M	-58.79M	-146.91M	-203.35M
Investing Cash Flow	16.01M	18.71M	18.00M	-3.32M	32.73M
Financing Cash Flow	14.43M	940.00K	54.11M	75.06M	156.03M

Heron Therapeutics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 0.84
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HRTX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.84 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.05, below the 50-day MA of 1.22, and below the 200-day MA of 1.43, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 26.03 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.32 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HRTX.

Heron Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OCGN	55 Neutral	$734.49M	-5.95	-2626.38%	―	14.26%	-23.34%
KOD	54 Neutral	$1.38B	-3.52	-246.19%	―	―	-12.93%
NMRA	52 Neutral	$429.42M	-1.30	-113.81%	―	―	20.71%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
SGMT	50 Neutral	$149.74M	-3.75	-40.85%	―	―	-38.23%
BNTC	49 Neutral	$395.07M	-13.08	-38.92%	―	―	80.95%
HRTX	48 Neutral	$154.09M	-10.73	304.91%	―	12.60%	58.23%

Heron Therapeutics Corporate Events

Heron Therapeutics Reports Strong Preliminary Q4 2025 Revenue

On January 9, 2026, Heron Therapeutics reported preliminary, unaudited net revenue of approximately $40.5 million for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025, and about $154.9 million for full-year 2025, underscoring continued momentum across its acute care and oncology supportive care portfolio. Within Q4, CINVANTI remained the largest revenue contributor at roughly $22.9 million, while ZYNRELEF generated about $12.5 million and delivered the strongest quarter-over-quarter growth in the portfolio, rising around 35% versus the third quarter, with APONVIE and SUSTOL contributing approximately $3.8 million and $1.3 million, respectively; the solid top-line performance and particularly strong uptake of ZYNRELEF highlight progress in Heron’s acute care franchise and suggest strengthening commercial execution heading into the company’s final audited results.

The most recent analyst rating on (HRTX) stock is a Buy with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Heron Therapeutics stock, see the HRTX Stock Forecast page.