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CMOC Group (HK:3993)
:3993

CMOC Group (3993) AI Stock Analysis

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HK:3993

CMOC Group

(3993)

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Outperform 70 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
HK$24.50
▲(9.77% Upside)
The score is driven primarily by improved financial performance (stronger margins/returns and a de-risking balance sheet), tempered by cash-flow conversion volatility and cyclical sensitivity. Technicals are constructive but currently overextended, and valuation/dividend are not especially attractive.
Positive Factors
Improved profitability and margins
Sustained margin expansion and stronger scale indicate the company has improved cost control and pricing power in its commodity portfolio. Higher margins boost cash generation potential, support reinvestment and debt reduction, and increase resilience across commodity cycles over months to years.
De-risked balance sheet
Lower leverage and rising equity reduce refinancing and solvency risks, improving financial flexibility. A stronger balance sheet allows the firm to fund operations, withstand cyclical downturns, and pursue strategic investments without immediate reliance on volatile capital markets.
Diversified operations and vertical integration
Exposure to multiple metals and value-chain activities (mining, processing, trading) smooths revenue sources and captures more margin per tonne. Vertical integration and by-product sales improve unit economics and reduce dependence on any single commodity, supporting steadier fundamentals over time.
Negative Factors
Commodity cyclicality
Dependence on commodity markets exposes earnings and cash flow to sustained price swings and demand shifts. Even with recent improvements, multi-month downturns in metal prices or industrial demand can materially compress margins and returns, limiting predictability of core earnings.
Cash conversion volatility
Negative TTM free-cash-flow growth and weaker cash conversion imply timing or working-capital pressures that can recur. Persistent volatility in converting profits to cash reduces the firm's ability to fund capex, pay down debt, or sustain distributions during extended commodity weakness.
Residual exposure from prior high leverage
Although leverage has declined, a history of higher indebtedness means covenant, refinancing or liquidity pressures could reappear if margins fall. This structural constraint limits downside protection and could force asset sales or curtailed investment in prolonged market stress.

CMOC Group (3993) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)

CMOC Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCMOC Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the mining, beneficiation, smelting, refining, and trading of copper, cobalt, molybdenum, tungsten, niobium, phosphates, and other base and rare metals. The company provides molybdenum oxide, ferromolybdenum, molybdenum and tungsten concentrates, copper concentrate, cobalt hydroxide, ferroniobium, phosphate fertilizer, gold and silver, and other related products. It is also involved in the refining and sale of mineral products; purchase and sale of molybdenum and tungsten products; import and export of goods and technology; and hotel management, consulting, enterprise operating and management, asset management, logistics, and transportation businesses. It has operations in China, Australia, Brazil and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Switzerland, and internationally. China Molybdenum Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 2006 and is based in Luoyang, the People's Republic of China.
How the Company Makes MoneyChina Molybdenum generates revenue primarily from the mining and sale of molybdenum, tungsten, and copper. The company benefits from a diversified portfolio of mining operations, which allows it to capture value across different stages of the supply chain, from extraction to processing. Key revenue streams include the sale of molybdenum and tungsten concentrates, as well as refined metal products. The company also engages in trading activities, generating additional income through the sale of by-products. Strategic partnerships with other mining and metallurgical companies, along with investments in technological advancements, enhance its operational efficiency and profitability. Market demand for its products, influenced by industrial applications, construction, and electronics sectors, plays a significant role in shaping its earnings.

CMOC Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 22, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance with record profits and robust cash flow. The company demonstrated strategic advancements with acquisitions and improvements in operational efficiency, and maintained strong ESG practices. However, there were challenges in the trading business and cobalt sales due to external factors. Overall, the positive aspects outweigh the lowlights, indicating a strong performance outlook.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Net Attributable Profit
Net attributable profit hit a record high of CNY8.7 billion in the first half of 2025, representing a 60% year-over-year increase.
Strong EBITDA Growth
EBITDA increased to CNY19.8 billion, marking a 23.8% year-over-year growth, driven by higher commodity prices and improved sales volumes.
Significant Improvement in Gross Profit Margin
The gross profit margin of the mining segment reached 52%, a year-over-year improvement of nearly 6 percentage points.
Successful Acquisition and New Project in Ecuador
The company completed the acquisition of the Ecuadorian gold mine, marking its first gold-focused mine, with production targeted for 2029.
Robust Cash Flow and Reduced Gearing Ratio
Operating cash flow was CNY12 billion, a year-over-year increase of 11.4%, while the gearing ratio decreased to 50.15%.
Improved ESG Performance and Recognition
CMOC maintained an AA MSCI ESG rating and was listed on the Fortune China 2025 ESG Impact List.
Molybdenum and Tungsten Business Growth
The gross margin for molybdenum products increased by 4.5 percentage points to 38.3%, and tungsten sales saw a 7% year-over-year improvement.
Negative Updates
Decline in Trading Business Revenue
The trading business showed a year-over-year revenue decline of 11.44% due to restructuring of low-profit product lines.
Cobalt Sales Decline
Cobalt sales decreased by 9.3% year-over-year, primarily due to an export ban affecting trade.
Company Guidance
During the first half of 2025, CMOC Group Limited focused on organizational upgrades, cost reduction, and efficiency improvements, resulting in a strong financial performance despite a slight year-over-year (YoY) decline in operating revenue to CNY94.8 billion. The mining segment's operating income increased by 25.64%, while the trading business saw a YoY decline due to a restructuring of low-profitability product lines. EBITDA rose by 23.8% to CNY19.8 billion, and net attributable profit reached CNY8.7 billion, marking a 60% YoY increase. Operating cash flow was robust at CNY12 billion, with a gearing ratio reduction to 50.15% and a return on net assets improvement to 11.7%. The copper and cobalt segment contributed 84% of the gross profit in the mining segment, with copper production increasing by 12.7% to 354,000 metric tons and cobalt production rising by 13.1% to 61,000 metric tons. The company's molybdenum, tungsten, and phosphorus operations showed improvements in production, sales, and gross profit margins. CMOC Group also completed the acquisition of the Ecuadorian gold mine for CAD581 million and maintained its commitment to ESG excellence, with a continued AA MSCI rating and initiatives such as community development projects in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The company aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, with plans for significant investments in energy efficiency and clean energy projects.

CMOC Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong income statement performance with meaningfully improved profitability and margins in TTM, supported by better balance-sheet positioning versus 2021–2023. Offsets include moderate cyclicality risk typical of commodity-linked materials, and some near-term volatility in cash conversion with negative TTM free-cash-flow growth.
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Profitability and scale have improved meaningfully versus prior years. Revenue is up strongly in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) and margins expanded versus 2024 (annual) and 2023 (annual), with higher gross profit and a stronger net margin. The main offset is that revenue growth has been uneven over the cycle (including a slight decline in 2022), which is typical for a commodity-linked industrial materials business and can pressure earnings if pricing turns.
Balance Sheet
76
Positive
Leverage is moderate and trending better: debt relative to equity is meaningfully lower in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) than in 2021–2023, alongside rising equity and assets. Returns on shareholder capital are strong in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), indicating improved capital efficiency. The key risk is that the business has operated with higher leverage in the recent past, so the balance sheet is improved but still somewhat exposed if profitability weakens in a down-cycle.
Cash Flow
71
Positive
Cash generation is solid with healthy free cash flow, and free cash flow remains a high share of earnings in both 2024 (annual) and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). However, operating cash flow covers a lower portion of reported earnings in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) versus 2024 (annual), and free cash flow growth turned negative in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). This points to some near-term volatility in cash conversion despite overall positive cash production.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue203.74B213.03B186.27B172.99B173.86B112.98B
Gross Profit39.94B35.25B17.83B16.06B16.32B8.45B
EBITDA36.74B31.39B20.17B17.10B17.11B9.01B
Net Income19.54B13.53B8.25B6.07B5.11B2.33B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets184.19B170.24B172.97B165.02B137.45B122.44B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments40.26B36.94B39.00B36.88B31.44B24.38B
Total Debt30.50B29.64B50.86B48.66B46.86B47.03B
Total Liabilities90.46B84.29B101.01B102.98B89.19B75.11B
Stockholders Equity77.69B71.02B59.54B51.70B39.85B38.89B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow26.05B27.49B2.62B4.94B1.91B870.66M
Operating Cash Flow31.15B32.39B15.54B15.45B6.19B8.49B
Investing Cash Flow4.57B-1.16B-10.66B-7.37B-4.89B-9.40B
Financing Cash Flow-32.98B-30.57B-8.61B-2.10B7.89B422.30M

CMOC Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price22.32
Price Trends
50DMA
19.52
Positive
100DMA
17.27
Positive
200DMA
12.60
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.04
Negative
RSI
56.11
Neutral
STOCH
70.77
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:3993, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.32 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.05, above the 50-day MA of 19.52, and above the 200-day MA of 12.60, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HK:3993.

CMOC Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
HK$39.21B13.9124.57%1.89%60.77%100.45%
70
Outperform
HK$565.27B22.5627.23%1.45%-2.42%38.68%
70
Outperform
HK$55.10B54.4436.46%1.32%31.24%58.16%
67
Neutral
HK$4.01B10.814.82%6.84%160.79%-28.92%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
52
Neutral
HK$98.73B-37.03-4.63%2.80%-39.59%69.00%
44
Neutral
HK$2.25B-3.90-14.35%-31.35%-71.37%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
HK:3993
CMOC Group
22.32
16.85
307.89%
HK:1205
CITIC Resources Holdings
0.51
0.19
57.89%
HK:1091
South Manganese Investment Limited
0.46
0.14
44.44%
HK:9696
Tianqi Lithium Corp. Class H
49.42
27.07
121.12%
HK:2245
Lygend Resources & Technology Co., Ltd. Class H
25.20
19.15
316.53%
HK:3939
Wanguo International Mining Group Ltd.
12.45
9.10
271.64%

CMOC Group Corporate Events

CMOC Forecasts Over 50% Surge in 2025 Net Profit on Higher Metal Prices and Volumes
Jan 15, 2026

CMOC Group Limited has issued a positive profit alert for 2025, projecting net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB20.0 billion to RMB20.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 48% to 54%. Net profit after deducting non-recurring items is expected to reach RMB20.4 billion to RMB21.2 billion, up roughly 56% to 62% from 2024, driven by higher sales volumes and prices of its major products alongside effective cost control, signaling a strong improvement in operating performance and earnings power ahead of the company’s full 2025 annual results.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3993) stock is a Hold with a HK$24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Molybdenum Co stock, see the HK:3993 Stock Forecast page.

China Molybdenum Co Invests in High-Growth Sectors through Boyu Capital Fund
Dec 8, 2025

China Molybdenum Co, through its wholly-owned subsidiary Xizang Shmok, has invested RMB500 million in a limited partnership fund managed by Boyu Capital. This fund aims to achieve favorable capital returns by focusing on high-growth sectors such as technology, healthcare, and consumer products. The investment will be accounted for as financial assets at fair value through profit or loss, reflecting the company’s strategic move to leverage idle cash for potential growth opportunities in these sectors.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3993) stock is a Buy with a HK$21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Molybdenum Co stock, see the HK:3993 Stock Forecast page.

CMOC Group Limited Announces Board Composition and Committee Roles
Dec 8, 2025

CMOC Group Limited has announced the composition of its board of directors, detailing the roles and functions of each member. The board consists of executive, non-executive, and independent non-executive directors, with specific members assigned to four committees: Audit and Risk, Nomination and Governance, Remuneration, and Strategic and Sustainability. This announcement underscores the company’s commitment to structured governance and strategic oversight, potentially impacting its operational efficiency and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3993) stock is a Buy with a HK$21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Molybdenum Co stock, see the HK:3993 Stock Forecast page.

CMOC Group Limited Announces Key Board and Governance Changes at 2025 EGM
Dec 8, 2025

CMOC Group Limited, a joint stock company incorporated in the People’s Republic of China, held its 2025 second extraordinary general meeting (EGM) on December 8, 2025. During the meeting, shareholders approved several key resolutions, including the appointment of an executive director and a non-executive director, the cancellation of the supervisory committee, and adjustments to board committees. These changes are expected to streamline the company’s governance structure and enhance decision-making processes, potentially impacting the company’s operational efficiency and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3993) stock is a Buy with a HK$21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Molybdenum Co stock, see the HK:3993 Stock Forecast page.

CMOC Group Limited Invests in High-Growth Private Equity Fund
Dec 2, 2025

CMOC Group Limited has announced its investment in a private equity fund named Boyu Xinzhi Xinchan (Ningbo) Equity Investment Limited Partnership. The fund, managed by Boyu Tianshu, focuses on high-growth sectors such as technology, healthcare, and consumer products. CMOC’s subsidiary, Xizang Shmok, will contribute RMB500 million as a limited partner. This investment is considered a connected transaction due to the involvement of CATL, a connected person to CMOC, and it complies with the reporting requirements under Chapter 14A of the Listing Rules. The fund aims to raise RMB8-10 billion and will operate as a closed-ended fund with an initial term of 12 years.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3993) stock is a Buy with a HK$20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Molybdenum Co stock, see the HK:3993 Stock Forecast page.

CMOC Group Enhances Governance with New Committee Rules
Nov 18, 2025

CMOC Group Limited has released the Detailed Working Rules of its Nomination and Governance Committee, which were approved at a recent board meeting. This announcement outlines the committee’s structure, duties, and procedures, emphasizing the company’s commitment to robust governance practices. The release is expected to enhance transparency and operational efficiency, potentially strengthening CMOC’s industry position and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3993) stock is a Buy with a HK$20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Molybdenum Co stock, see the HK:3993 Stock Forecast page.

CMOC Enhances Governance with New Audit and Risk Committee Rules
Nov 18, 2025

China Molybdenum Co., Ltd (CMOC) has announced the detailed working rules for its Audit and Risk Committee, which were passed at the fifth meeting of the seventh session of the Board on November 17, 2025. The release outlines the committee’s composition, duties, powers, meeting procedures, and resolution processes, indicating a structured approach to governance and risk management. This announcement signifies CMOC’s commitment to enhancing its corporate governance framework, potentially impacting its operational transparency and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3993) stock is a Buy with a HK$20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Molybdenum Co stock, see the HK:3993 Stock Forecast page.

China Molybdenum Co Updates Remuneration Committee Rules
Nov 18, 2025

China Molybdenum Co has announced the adoption of new operation rules for its Remuneration Committee, as approved at the recent board meeting. This update is likely to enhance governance and operational efficiency, potentially impacting the company’s strategic positioning and stakeholder relations positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3993) stock is a Buy with a HK$20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Molybdenum Co stock, see the HK:3993 Stock Forecast page.

CMOC Group Announces Leadership Change and Governance Reforms
Nov 17, 2025

CMOC Group Limited has announced the nomination of Mr. Ma Fei as a candidate for the position of non-executive director, pending shareholder approval at the 2025 extraordinary general meeting. Mr. Ma brings extensive experience in consulting and human resources, having held senior roles at various companies. Additionally, the company plans to cancel its supervisory committee and amend its articles of association to enhance its internal control systems. These changes are aimed at streamlining governance and aligning with updated legal guidelines, potentially impacting the company’s operational efficiency and stakeholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3993) stock is a Buy with a HK$20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Molybdenum Co stock, see the HK:3993 Stock Forecast page.

China Molybdenum Co Announces 2025 EGM to Reshape Governance
Nov 17, 2025

China Molybdenum Co, a prominent player in the mining industry, has announced the convening of its 2025 second extraordinary general meeting (EGM) to be held in Shanghai, China. The meeting aims to address key resolutions, including the election of new directors to the board and the proposed cancellation of the supervisory committee, which could significantly impact the company’s governance structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3993) stock is a Buy with a HK$20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Molybdenum Co stock, see the HK:3993 Stock Forecast page.

CMOC Group Limited Announces Changes in Company Secretary and Authorized Representative Roles
Nov 6, 2025

CMOC Group Limited, a joint stock company incorporated in China, has announced changes in its company secretary and authorized representative roles. Mr. Xu Hui has been confirmed as qualified to act as the sole company secretary following a waiver period, leading to the resignation of Ms. Ng Sau Mei from her joint secretary and authorized representative positions. The board expressed appreciation for Ms. Ng’s contributions, and Mr. Xu will assume her responsibilities, ensuring continuity in the company’s governance structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3993) stock is a Buy with a HK$20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Molybdenum Co stock, see the HK:3993 Stock Forecast page.

China Molybdenum Co Announces Board Composition and Committee Roles
Oct 24, 2025

China Molybdenum Co, a joint stock company incorporated in the People’s Republic of China, has announced the composition of its board of directors and their roles within various committees. The board comprises executive, non-executive, and independent non-executive directors, with specific members assigned to the Audit and Risk, Nomination and Governance, Remuneration, and Strategic and Sustainability Committees. This announcement provides clarity on the governance structure of the company, which is crucial for stakeholders to understand the decision-making framework and oversight within the organization.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3993) stock is a Buy with a HK$17.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Molybdenum Co stock, see the HK:3993 Stock Forecast page.

Leadership Changes at CMOC Group Limited: New Executive Director Proposed
Oct 24, 2025

CMOC Group Limited has announced the resignation of its Executive Director and President, Mr. Sun Ruiwen, and Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, Mr. Kenny Ives, citing personal work reasons and family commitments, respectively. The company assures that these changes will not affect its daily operations or board functionality. Additionally, Mr. Peng Xuhui has been proposed as a new Executive Director, bringing extensive experience in corporate management and strategic planning, which is expected to bolster the company’s leadership and operational strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3993) stock is a Buy with a HK$17.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Molybdenum Co stock, see the HK:3993 Stock Forecast page.

CMOC Group Limited Reports Strong Profit Growth in Q3 2025 Despite Revenue Dip
Oct 24, 2025

CMOC Group Limited has announced its unaudited financial results for the third quarter ending September 30, 2025. The company reported a slight decrease in operating revenue by 2.36% compared to the same period last year, while total profit and net profit attributable to shareholders saw substantial increases of 64.37% and 96.40%, respectively. The financial report highlights a robust growth in profitability despite a decline in revenue, indicating improved operational efficiency and cost management. This performance may strengthen CMOC’s position in the mining industry and provide positive implications for its stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3993) stock is a Buy with a HK$17.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Molybdenum Co stock, see the HK:3993 Stock Forecast page.

CMOC Group Limited Announces Online Briefing Session for 2025 Q3 Results
Oct 22, 2025

CMOC Group Limited has announced an online briefing session for its 2025 third quarterly results, scheduled for October 28, 2025. The session aims to facilitate interaction with investors, allowing them to appraise the company’s performance and operations. Independent non-executive directors and management will participate, providing an opportunity for stakeholders to engage and have their questions addressed.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3993) stock is a Buy with a HK$17.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Molybdenum Co stock, see the HK:3993 Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 14, 2026