JD Logistics, Inc. (HK:2618)
:2618
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JD Logistics, Inc.
(2618)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
HK$17.00
▲(21.52% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/29/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial execution (turnaround to steady profits and consistently positive free cash flow) and supportive technical uptrend signals. Valuation is relatively favorable on P/E, while the earnings call adds cautious optimism on growth and margin improvement but flags key risks around cost pressure, thin margins, and JD Group concentration.
Positive Factors
Consistent cash generation and FCF
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow provides durable financial flexibility: funds capex for automation, support ISC expansion and overseas rollout, reduce leverage if needed, and finance strategic investments without relying on external financing, improving long-term resilience.
Negative Factors
Persistently thin overall profitability
Low operating and net margins constrain the company's ability to absorb cost shocks and fund growth from internal profits. Even with top‑line scale, thin margins limit return on invested capital and require sustained efficiency gains or pricing power to materially improve long‑term profitability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Consistent cash generation and FCF
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow provides durable financial flexibility: funds capex for automation, support ISC expansion and overseas rollout, reduce leverage if needed, and finance strategic investments without relying on external financing, improving long-term resilience.
Read all positive factors
JD Logistics, Inc. (2618) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$100.69B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)15.75M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.9
Beta (1Y)1.20
Revenue Growth18.89%
EPS Growth6.97%
CountryHK
Employees498,709
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.39
Shares Outstanding6,672,482,000
10 Day Avg. Volume12,999,198
30 Day Avg. Volume15,745,832
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio3.31
Price to Book (P/B)1.18
Price to Sales (P/S)0.30
P/FCF Ratio5.79
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
HK$17.76Price Target Upside26.92% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)1.38
Revenue Forecast (FY)HK$262.68B
JD Logistics, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
JD Logistics Inc., an investment holding company, provides supply chain solutions and logistics services in the People's Republic of China. The company offers warehousing and distribution, express and freight delivery; bulky item, cold chain, and ...
How the Company Makes Money
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JD Logistics, Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operational story: strong top-line growth, robust ISC segment performance, meaningful overseas expansion and clear progress on technology and automation deployments, backed by positive cash generation. However, profitability remains modest and under pressure from rapidly rising employee and operating costs, some slower growth pockets in express/freight, and dependence on JD Group volume. On balance the highlights (revenue growth, ISC strength, tech/overseas investments and cash flow) outweigh the lowlights (margin compression, cost increases and concentration risks), but margin and cost control will be critical going forward.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth (Quarter & Full Year)
Q4 revenue of RMB 63.5 billion, +21.9% year-over-year; Full-year 2025 revenue RMB 217.1 billion, +18.8% year-over-year — double-digit growth in both the quarter and full year.
Negative Updates
Modest Overall Margins Despite Growth
Non-IFRS profit margins remain low at 3.7% (Q4) and 3.6% (FY). IFRS profit margin was 3.1% in Q4 and 3.2% for FY 2025. Gross profit margin in Q4 was 9.3%, indicating limited current margin leverage despite revenue increases.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth (Quarter & Full Year)
Q4 revenue of RMB 63.5 billion, +21.9% year-over-year; Full-year 2025 revenue RMB 217.1 billion, +18.8% year-over-year — double-digit growth in both the quarter and full year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that 2026 should see continued strong growth momentum and improving profitability driven by further ISC expansion, overseas scale-up (Europe expected to grow “very fast”), and higher investment in automation and AI; they pointed to 2025 baselines of RMB 217.1 billion full‑year revenue (+18.8% YoY) and Q4 revenue RMB 63.5 billion (+21.9%), non‑IFRS profit of RMB 7.7 billion for the year (3.6% margin) and RMB 2.35 billion in Q4 (3.7% margin), non‑IFRS EBITDA in Q4 RMB 5.8 billion (9.1% margin), free cash flow excl. leases in Q4 RMB 3.3 billion and operating cash flow excl. leases RMB 5.3 billion, CapEx in Q4 RMB 1.9 billion, gross profit margin in Q4 9.3%, ISC revenue of RMB 116.2 billion in 2025 (+33% YoY) with external ISC revenue cited at RMB 35.9 billion and ~91,161 external ISC customers (+13% YoY), Q4 ISC revenue RMB 36.0 billion (+44.5%) including RMB 26.7 billion from JD Group (+68.1%) and RMB 9.3 billion from external ISC customers (external customer count in Q4 reported as 68,000, +9.7% YoY), express and freight revenue RMB 100.9 billion (+5.7%), footprint of >1,600 warehouses and >34 million sqm GFA domestically plus ~200 overseas warehouses (~2 million sqm GFA), Smart Wolf deployed in ~20 cities (>20 warehouses), thousands of unmanned vehicles across >20 provinces, JD Airlines fleet of 12 planes, and an operational workforce that rose from ~480,000 to ~660,000 — with management saying these investments (R&D spend up in Q4 RMB 1.2 billion, +28.9%) and efficiency gains from AI/automation will drive margin recovery and a balance of growth and profit stability in 2026.JD Logistics, Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 195.02B | 211.53B | 182.84B | 166.62B | 137.40B | 104.69B |
| Gross Profit | 19.08B | 19.26B | 18.70B | 12.68B | 10.10B | 5.78B |
| EBITDA | 10.80B | 17.73B | 11.07B | 14.97B | 10.08B | -7.12B |
| Net Income | 6.51B | 6.47B | 6.20B | 616.19M | -1.40B | -15.84B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 118.91B | 124.65B | 117.87B | 112.90B | 106.70B | 76.80B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 31.17B | 28.32B | 43.14B | 33.07B | 35.43B | 28.91B |
| Total Debt | 23.68B | 22.46B | 23.17B | 27.25B | 23.88B | 15.28B |
| Total Liabilities | 59.82B | 64.84B | 54.90B | 57.53B | 53.49B | 36.41B |
| Stockholders Equity | 53.83B | 54.70B | 55.32B | 48.16B | 46.58B | 37.94B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 11.12B | 15.17B | 10.87B | 8.31B | 1.97B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 18.77B | 20.79B | 16.35B | 13.31B | 6.21B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -11.49B | -840.45M | -15.10B | -13.11B | -11.12B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -14.77B | -11.49B | -5.55B | 1.48B | 16.60B |
JD Logistics, Inc. Technical Analysis
Positive
13.99
Price Trends
12.79
Positive
12.30
Positive
12.74
Positive
Market Momentum
0.76
Negative
76.26
Negative
93.40
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:2618, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.37, above the 50-day MA of 12.79, and above the 200-day MA of 12.74, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.76 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 76.26 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.40 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HK:2618.
JD Logistics, Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | HK$100.69B | 9.94 | 7.51% | ― | 18.89% | 6.97% | |
74 Outperform | HK$153.10B | 11.17 | 14.02% | 3.05% | 11.02% | 4.17% | |
65 Neutral | HK$45.83B | 5.91 | 9.97% | 6.39% | -8.36% | 3.10% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | HK$12.18B | 4.20 | 8.00% | 3.55% | -3.33% | -8.42% | |
62 Neutral | HK$2.71B | 17.02 | 9.22% | 8.25% | -3.77% | -65.34% | |
61 Neutral | HK$90.85B | 25.39 | 5.53% | ― | 18.42% | 97.52% |
* Industrials Sector Average
HK:2618
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JD Logistics, Inc. Corporate Events
JD Logistics Sets May 12 Board Meeting to Approve First-Quarter Results
Apr 28, 2026
JD Logistics, Inc. has scheduled a board meeting for May 12, 2026 to review and approve the unaudited quarterly results for the group for the three months ended March 31, 2026. The timing underscores the company’s regular financial reporting...
JD Logistics Flags Sharp 2025 Profit Reversal at Deppon Unit
Apr 24, 2026
JD Logistics has disclosed key 2025 financial figures for its subsidiary Deppon Logistics, which is listed on China’s National Equities Exchange and Quotations delisting segment. The update provides shareholders with a detailed snapshot of D...
JD Logistics Grants New Employee Share Awards with Robust Clawback Terms
Apr 1, 2026
JD Logistics has granted 4,250,355 new share awards under its Post-IPO Share Award Scheme to employees of the group, excluding directors and senior management, representing about 0.06% of its issued share capital as of the grant date. The awards, ...
JD Logistics Moves Deppon Off Shanghai Bourse to Tighten Grip on Freight Operations
Mar 25, 2026
JD Logistics has confirmed that its logistics affiliate Deppon will be delisted from the Shanghai Stock Exchange on March 31, 2026, after the bourse approved the proposed withdrawal of Deppon shares. The move follows a series of corporate announce...
JD Logistics Grows Revenue on Supply Chain Expansion but Faces Margin Pressure in 2025
Mar 5, 2026
JD Logistics reported 2025 revenue of RMB217.1 billion, up 18.8% year-on-year, with gross profit rising 5.7%, while profit for the year declined 2.8% and margins compressed, reflecting higher costs amid expansion. The company expanded its nationwi...
JD Logistics Nears Full Control of Deppon as Cash Option Lifts Stake to 99.7%
Feb 25, 2026
JD Logistics, Inc. has completed a proposed cash option to acquire additional shares in Deppon, resulting in the group holding approximately 99.7% of Deppon’s total share capital. The transaction follows an application period during which 18...
JD Logistics Sets March Board Meeting and Earnings Call for 2025 Results
Feb 20, 2026
JD Logistics, Inc. has scheduled a board meeting for March 5, 2026 to approve the annual results of the group for the financial year ended December 31, 2025. Management will host a conference call the same day at 6:00 p.m. Beijing/Hong Kong time t...
JD Logistics Warns of 2025 Loss at Subsidiary Deppon Amid Cost Pressures and Strategic Investment
Jan 30, 2026
JD Logistics has alerted investors that its subsidiary Deppon Logistics expects to swing from profit to a significant loss in 2025, forecasting an unaudited net loss attributable to shareholders of between RMB439 million and RMB539 million, compar...
JD Logistics Moves to Delist Deppon from Shanghai with RMB3.8 Billion Cash Offer
Jan 29, 2026
JD Logistics has announced that shareholders of its affiliate Deppon have approved a special resolution to voluntarily withdraw Deppon’s shares from trading on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and the company will now seek regulatory approval fr...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.