ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A (2057) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: HK$131.24B
• Dividend Yield: 3.06%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.71M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.86
• Revenue Growth: 12.64%
• EPS Growth: 2.90%
• Country: HK
• Employees: 24,477
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics
• EPS (TTM): 3.39
• Shares Outstanding: 598,368,470
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,353,918
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,711,855
• PEG Ratio: 11.99
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.89
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.64
• P/FCF Ratio: 21.18
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: HK$190.00
• Price Target Upside: 15.08% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: HK$180.00 ▲(9.02% Upside)

ZTO Express is in a strong financial position with consistent revenue growth and profitability. The technical indicators suggest bullish momentum, although the stock may be overbought. The valuation is reasonable with a fair P/E ratio and a solid dividend yield. The main risk is the decline in free cash flow growth, which should be monitored.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates ZTO Express's ability to expand its market presence and capture more business in the e-commerce sector, supporting long-term business sustainability.

Balance Sheet Health

A low debt-to-equity ratio reflects prudent financial management, providing ZTO Express with financial flexibility to invest in growth opportunities and withstand economic downturns.

Profitability Margins

Strong profitability margins suggest efficient operations and cost management, which are critical for sustaining competitive advantage and long-term financial health.

Negative Factors

Free Cash Flow Decline

A decline in free cash flow growth can limit ZTO Express's ability to fund new initiatives or return capital to shareholders, potentially impacting future growth and shareholder value.

Margin Pressure

Declining margins may indicate rising costs or pricing pressures, which could erode profitability if not managed effectively, affecting long-term financial performance.

Cash Flow Conversion Challenges

Challenges in converting income into free cash flow may hinder ZTO Express's ability to reinvest in the business or manage financial obligations, impacting long-term operational flexibility.

ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. The company offers delivery services for e-commerce and traditional merchants, and other express service users. As of December 31, 2021, it operated a fleet of approximately 10,900 trucks. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

How the Company Makes Money

ZTO Express generates revenue primarily through its express delivery services, which include both domestic and international parcel shipping. The company charges customers based on the weight, size, and delivery distance of parcels. Key revenue streams also include freight transportation services and logistics solutions tailored to meet the needs of businesses. ZTO has established significant partnerships with e-commerce platforms and various enterprises, which contribute to a steady flow of shipments and increased volume of deliveries. Additionally, the company benefits from economies of scale due to its extensive network and operational efficiencies, enabling it to maintain competitive pricing while maximizing profitability.

ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Financial Statement Overview

Summary

ZTO Express shows solid financial health with consistent revenue growth and strong profitability margins. The balance sheet is well-managed with low leverage and strong equity. However, the decline in free cash flow growth poses a potential risk that needs to be monitored.

Income Statement

ZTO Express has demonstrated consistent revenue growth with a TTM growth rate of 2.45%. The company maintains strong profitability with a gross profit margin of 27.48% and a net profit margin of 18.81% in the TTM. However, there is a slight decline in margins compared to the previous year, indicating potential pressure on profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is robust with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.29, indicating prudent financial leverage. Return on equity is healthy at 13.99%, reflecting efficient use of equity capital. The equity ratio stands at 67.85%, suggesting a strong equity base relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

Cash flow performance is mixed, with a significant decline in free cash flow growth at -40.72% in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.20, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio has decreased to 0.22, highlighting potential challenges in converting income into free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	46.32B	44.28B	38.42B	35.38B	30.41B	25.21B
Gross Profit	12.73B	13.72B	11.66B	9.04B	6.59B	5.84B
EBITDA	14.53B	15.04B	13.85B	10.41B	8.09B	6.59B
Net Income	8.71B	8.82B	8.75B	6.81B	4.75B	4.31B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	94.62B	92.34B	88.47B	78.52B	62.77B	59.20B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	26.52B	22.31B	19.89B	17.58B	12.72B	17.90B
Total Debt	18.87B	17.35B	15.44B	13.12B	4.44B	2.51B
Total Liabilities	29.76B	29.67B	28.18B	24.05B	13.84B	10.11B
Stockholders Equity	64.20B	62.06B	59.80B	54.03B	48.64B	48.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.32B	5.53B	6.69B	4.07B	-2.11B	-4.26B
Operating Cash Flow	10.45B	11.43B	13.36B	11.48B	7.22B	4.95B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.26B	-5.98B	-12.25B	-16.04B	-8.76B	-3.55B
Financing Cash Flow	-4.40B	-5.00B	-769.84M	7.06B	-2.90B	8.34B

ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 165.10
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:2057, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 165.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 163.13, above the 50-day MA of 153.38, and above the 200-day MA of 147.08, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.48 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HK:2057.

ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
2618	73 Outperform	HK$78.75B	10.80	12.40%	―	11.05%	81.01%
2057	72 Outperform	HK$131.24B	14.33	13.87%	3.06%	12.64%	2.90%
2490	66 Neutral	HK$2.87B	5.34	37.50%	8.25%	56.58%	1963.38%
0598	64 Neutral	HK$45.69B	8.87	9.44%	6.36%	-17.69%	-3.38%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
1519	61 Neutral	HK$94.26B	72.95	5.53%	―	12.14%	―
0636	54 Neutral	HK$12.69B	9.31	8.51%	3.67%	26.36%	-18.67%

ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Corporate Events

ZTO Express Acquires Zhejiang Xinglian in RMB178 Million Deal

ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. has announced a connected transaction involving the acquisition of 100% equity interest in Zhejiang Xinglian by ZTO Aviation, a consolidated affiliated entity of the company. The acquisition, valued at RMB178,000,000, will result in Zhejiang Xinglian becoming a subsidiary of the group, with its financial results consolidated into those of ZTO Express. This transaction, subject to the Hong Kong Listing Rules, does not require independent shareholders’ approval due to its percentage ratio.