ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A (2057) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: HK$110.61B
• Dividend Yield: 3.86%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.95M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.88
• Revenue Growth: 12.94%
• EPS Growth: 9.55%
• Country: HK
• Employees: 24,477
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 86
• Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics
• EPS (TTM): 2.65
• Shares Outstanding: 598,368,470
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,097,195
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,946,354
• PEG Ratio: 0.52
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.80
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 37.19
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: HK$175.50
• Price Target Upside: 24.91% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 81 Outperform
• Price Target: HK$162.00 ▲(15.30%Upside)

ZTO Express's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and attractive valuation, which suggests potential for growth and income. The financial metrics indicate robust profitability and cash flow management, while the low P/E ratio and solid dividend yield add to its investment appeal. Technical analysis shows mixed signals, with some caution advised due to overbought conditions. However, the absence of recent earnings call and corporate events data limits additional insights.

Positive Factors

Competitive Advantages

The stock is positively influenced by strong long-term competitive advantages and a healthier partner.

Operational Growth

Resilient performance driven by continuous efforts in advancing profitable growth boosts investor confidence.

Negative Factors

Market Competition

Fiercer market competition and lower-than-expected growth in parcel volume could negatively impact stock performance.

ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A (2057) is a leading express delivery and logistics company based in China, focused on providing reliable and efficient parcel delivery services. The company operates within the logistics and transportation sector, offering a comprehensive range of services including express delivery, freight forwarding, and supply chain solutions. ZTO Express is recognized for its extensive network across China and its commitment to leveraging technology to enhance service quality and operational efficiency.

How the Company Makes Money

ZTO Express makes money primarily through its express delivery services, which account for the majority of its revenue. The company charges fees for the transportation and delivery of parcels, with pricing determined by factors such as package weight, delivery distance, and service level. Additionally, ZTO Express generates revenue from value-added services, including warehousing, logistics solutions, and cross-border e-commerce logistics. The company benefits from strategic partnerships with e-commerce platforms and retailers, which drive a significant volume of parcel shipments. By continuously expanding its service offerings and optimizing its logistics network, ZTO Express is able to maintain competitive pricing and capture market share in China's rapidly growing logistics industry.

ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Financial Statement Overview

Summary

ZTO Express exhibits a robust financial profile with strong growth in revenue and profitability. The income statement shows solid growth, the balance sheet reflects conservative leverage and effective equity utilization, and cash flow generation is improving. However, maintaining consistent cash flow growth is crucial for long-term stability.

Income Statement

ZTO Express demonstrates strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth, increasing from 25.2 billion in 2020 to 44.3 billion in 2024. The gross profit margin improved from 23.1% in 2020 to 31.0% in 2024, and the net profit margin remained stable around 19.9% in 2024. EBIT and EBITDA margins also show a positive upward trend. Overall, the company exhibits solid growth and profitability in its income statement metrics.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.28 in 2024, indicating conservative leverage. The company's equity ratio improved to 67.2% in 2024, showing healthy financial stability. Return on equity is robust at 14.2% in 2024, demonstrating effective use of equity to generate profits. While total debt has increased, the company's solid equity base mitigates potential risks.

Cash Flow

ZTO Express has shown a positive trend in free cash flow, growing from -4.3 billion in 2020 to 11.4 billion in 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio shows improvement, reflecting enhanced cash flow management. Overall, the cash flow statement indicates a strengthening liquidity position but highlights the need to maintain consistent free cash flow growth.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	44.28B	38.42B	35.38B	30.41B	25.21B
Gross Profit	13.72B	11.66B	9.04B	6.59B	5.84B
EBITDA	15.04B	13.85B	11.15B	5.87B	5.20B
Net Income	8.82B	8.75B	6.81B	4.75B	4.31B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	92.34B	88.47B	78.52B	62.77B	59.20B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	22.31B	19.89B	17.45B	12.57B	17.90B
Total Debt	17.35B	15.44B	13.12B	4.44B	2.51B
Total Liabilities	29.67B	28.18B	24.05B	13.84B	10.11B
Stockholders Equity	62.06B	59.80B	54.03B	48.64B	48.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	5.53B	6.69B	4.07B	-2.11B	-4.26B
Operating Cash Flow	11.43B	13.36B	11.48B	7.22B	4.95B
Investing Cash Flow	-5.98B	-12.25B	-16.04B	-8.76B	-3.55B
Financing Cash Flow	-5.00B	-769.84M	7.06B	-2.90B	8.34B

ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 140.50
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:2057, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 140.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 138.37, below the 50-day MA of 140.94, and below the 200-day MA of 154.37, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.05 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:2057.

ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
2057	81 Outperform	HK$110.61B	11.48	15.67%	3.86%	12.94%	9.55%
0598	77 Outperform	$38.07B	7.33	9.59%	7.66%	0.33%	-8.73%
2618	77 Outperform	HK$86.29B	12.49	12.01%	―	7.77%	1079.57%
2490	67 Neutral	HK$5.22B	12.15	30.13%	4.83%	53.93%	218.84%
1519	61 Neutral	HK$69.02B	86.79	3.61%	―	15.55%	―
0636	58 Neutral	HK$13.50B	8.74	8.04%	4.21%	22.92%	27.65%
Sector *	58 Neutral	HK$10.50B	4.22	-2.96%	7.40%	3.76%	-51.26%

ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Corporate Events

ZTO Express Approves AGM Resolutions, Reaffirms Leadership

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. announced the results of its Annual General Meeting held on June 17, 2025, where all proposed resolutions were passed. The resolutions included the approval of the company’s audited financial statements and the re-election of key directors, which underscores the company’s stable governance and strategic continuity.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2057) stock is a Buy with a HK$234.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A stock, see the HK:2057 Stock Forecast page.

ZTO Express Announces 2025 Q1 Financial Results Amid Industry Challenges

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. announced its unaudited financial results for the first quarter of 2025, prepared in accordance with U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. The announcement highlights potential risks associated with the company’s operations, including its reliance on third-party e-commerce platforms and intense competition, which could impact its market share and operational results.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2057) stock is a Buy with a HK$234.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A stock, see the HK:2057 Stock Forecast page.

ZTO Express to Announce Q1 2025 Financial Results

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. has announced a board meeting scheduled for May 20, 2025, to approve and release its unaudited financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2025. The results will be published on May 21, 2025, before the trading hours of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The company will also host an earnings conference call on May 20, 2025, U.S. Eastern Time, to discuss the financial results, which could provide insights into its operational performance and market positioning.

ZTO Express Announces Annual General Meeting with Key Resolutions

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. has announced its upcoming annual general meeting (AGM) scheduled for June 17, 2025, in Hong Kong. The meeting will address several key resolutions, including the re-election of directors, the appointment of auditors, and the authorization for the board to manage remuneration and issue additional Class A ordinary shares. These decisions are crucial for the company’s governance and strategic direction, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

ZTO Express Announces Board Changes with New Appointment

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. announced a change in its board of directors, with Mr. Xudong Chen resigning and Ms. Di Xu being appointed as a non-executive director, effective April 25, 2025. Ms. Xu brings extensive experience from her roles at Alibaba Group and other companies, which may enhance ZTO’s strategic positioning and stakeholder confidence.

ZTO Express Files Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2024

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. has announced the filing of its annual report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024, with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. This filing is a significant regulatory requirement that provides stakeholders with detailed insights into the company’s financial performance and operations, potentially impacting investor confidence and market perception.

ZTO Express Sets Record Date for Shareholder Meeting

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. announced the record date for determining the eligibility of shareholders to vote and attend its upcoming annual general meeting. The record date is set for May 9, 2025, and shareholders must ensure their documents are lodged with the Hong Kong branch registrar by this date. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it outlines the procedural requirements for participating in the company’s governance, emphasizing the importance of timely documentation for voting rights.