ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A (2057) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: HK$112.97B
• Dividend Yield: 3.79%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.48M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.86
• Revenue Growth: 13.97%
• EPS Growth: 2.03%
• Country: HK
• Employees: 24,477
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 79
• Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics
• EPS (TTM): 2.58
• Shares Outstanding: 598,368,470
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,826,743
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,480,762
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: HK$180.40
• Price Target Upside: 28.31% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: HK$165.00 ▲(17.35% Upside)

ZTO Express's overall stock score is driven primarily by its strong financial performance, which highlights robust growth and financial stability. The valuation is attractive, with a reasonable P/E ratio and a solid dividend yield. However, technical analysis suggests caution due to mixed signals, including a low RSI and Stochastic indicator. The absence of earnings call data and corporate events means these factors did not influence the score.

Positive Factors

Market Leadership

ZTO Express has maintained the largest market share for 10 consecutive years, benefiting from its extensive network and 'shared success' philosophy.

Shareholder Returns

Robust fundamentals are supporting generous shareholder returns, including an increase in dividend payout and a share repurchase program.

Strategic Growth

ZTO strategically optimised its volume mix, achieving over 50% y/y growth in its retail parcel volume.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

2QFY25 results missed expectations, attributable to margin contraction amid fierce market competition.

Market Share

The rising portion of low-value parcels has weighed on its market share, leading to a decrease from 21.0% in 2023 to 18.9% in 1Q25.

ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. The company offers delivery services for e-commerce and traditional merchants, and other express service users. As of December 31, 2021, it operated a fleet of approximately 10,900 trucks. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

How the Company Makes Money

ZTO Express makes money through multiple revenue streams, primarily driven by its core express delivery services, which cater to the booming e-commerce industry in China. The company charges customers for parcel delivery services based on package weight, distance, and delivery speed. Additional revenue comes from value-added services, including warehousing, freight forwarding, and cross-border logistics solutions. ZTO Express also benefits from strategic partnerships with major e-commerce platforms, which provide a steady stream of parcel volume. Furthermore, the company's expansive network and operational efficiency help in managing costs, thereby enhancing profitability.

ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Financial Statement Overview

Summary

ZTO Express exhibits a robust financial profile with strong growth in revenue and profitability. The income statement shows solid growth, the balance sheet reflects conservative leverage and effective equity utilization, and cash flow generation is improving. However, maintaining consistent cash flow growth is crucial for long-term stability.

Income Statement

ZTO Express demonstrates strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth, increasing from 25.2 billion in 2020 to 44.3 billion in 2024. The gross profit margin improved from 23.1% in 2020 to 31.0% in 2024, and the net profit margin remained stable around 19.9% in 2024. EBIT and EBITDA margins also show a positive upward trend. Overall, the company exhibits solid growth and profitability in its income statement metrics.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.28 in 2024, indicating conservative leverage. The company's equity ratio improved to 67.2% in 2024, showing healthy financial stability. Return on equity is robust at 14.2% in 2024, demonstrating effective use of equity to generate profits. While total debt has increased, the company's solid equity base mitigates potential risks.

Cash Flow

ZTO Express has shown a positive trend in free cash flow, growing from -4.3 billion in 2020 to 11.4 billion in 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio shows improvement, reflecting enhanced cash flow management. Overall, the cash flow statement indicates a strengthening liquidity position but highlights the need to maintain consistent free cash flow growth.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	44.28B	38.42B	35.38B	30.41B	25.21B
Gross Profit	13.72B	11.66B	9.04B	6.59B	5.84B
EBITDA	15.04B	13.85B	11.15B	5.87B	5.20B
Net Income	8.82B	8.75B	6.81B	4.75B	4.31B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	92.34B	88.47B	78.52B	62.77B	59.20B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	22.31B	19.89B	17.45B	12.57B	17.90B
Total Debt	17.35B	15.44B	13.12B	4.44B	2.51B
Total Liabilities	29.67B	28.18B	24.05B	13.84B	10.11B
Stockholders Equity	62.06B	59.80B	54.03B	48.64B	48.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	5.53B	6.69B	4.07B	-2.11B	-4.26B
Operating Cash Flow	11.43B	13.36B	11.48B	7.22B	4.95B
Investing Cash Flow	-5.98B	-12.25B	-16.04B	-8.76B	-3.55B
Financing Cash Flow	-5.00B	-769.84M	7.06B	-2.90B	8.34B

ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 140.60
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:2057, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 140.6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 154.63, below the 50-day MA of 149.71, and below the 200-day MA of 148.27, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.73 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:2057.

ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
2057	73 Outperform	HK$112.97B	12.99	13.91%	3.79%	13.97%	2.03%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$10.85B	16.20	8.89%	1.97%	2.67%	-15.04%
KRRYF	―	$2.20B	9.86	8.51%	2.96%	―	―
SNOTF	―	$5.34B	7.94	9.96%	6.96%	―	―
2618	66 Neutral	HK$91.97B	12.23	12.40%	―	11.05%	81.01%
2490	64 Neutral	HK$4.48B	9.35	37.50%	4.67%	56.58%	1734.43%
1519	63 Neutral	HK$97.65B	121.33	5.53%	―	12.14%	―

ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Corporate Events

ZTO Express Announces Upcoming Financial Results and Conference Call

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. has announced a board meeting scheduled for August 19, 2025, to approve and publish its unaudited financial results for the second quarter and the first half of 2025. The company will release these results on August 20, 2025, before the trading hours of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and will host an earnings conference call to discuss the financial performance, which could impact investor perceptions and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2057) stock is a Buy with a HK$234.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A stock, see the HK:2057 Stock Forecast page.

ZTO Express Announces Tender Offer for Convertible Notes

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. has announced a tender offer statement filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission concerning its 1.50% Convertible Senior Notes due 2027. This move allows noteholders the right to sell their notes back to the company, which could impact the company’s financial obligations and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2057) stock is a Buy with a HK$234.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A stock, see the HK:2057 Stock Forecast page.

ZTO Express Approves AGM Resolutions, Reaffirms Leadership

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. announced the results of its Annual General Meeting held on June 17, 2025, where all proposed resolutions were passed. The resolutions included the approval of the company’s audited financial statements and the re-election of key directors, which underscores the company’s stable governance and strategic continuity.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2057) stock is a Buy with a HK$234.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A stock, see the HK:2057 Stock Forecast page.

ZTO Express Announces 2025 Q1 Financial Results Amid Industry Challenges

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. announced its unaudited financial results for the first quarter of 2025, prepared in accordance with U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. The announcement highlights potential risks associated with the company’s operations, including its reliance on third-party e-commerce platforms and intense competition, which could impact its market share and operational results.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2057) stock is a Buy with a HK$234.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A stock, see the HK:2057 Stock Forecast page.