ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A (2057) AI Stock Analysis

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ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A

(2057)

Select Model

Outperform 75 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:75Outperform

Price Target:

HK$164.00

▲(12.41% Upside)

ZTO Express's overall stock score is driven primarily by its strong financial performance, characterized by robust revenue and profit growth, financial stability, and strong cash flow generation. The valuation metrics are favorable, with a reasonable P/E ratio and attractive dividend yield. However, the technical analysis presents mixed signals, suggesting caution in the short term. The absence of earnings call and corporate events data limits further insights.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Strong revenue growth indicates expanding market presence and effective business strategies, supporting long-term sustainability.

Cash Flow Generation

Robust cash flow growth enhances liquidity and provides flexibility for investments and strategic initiatives, bolstering financial health.

Balance Sheet Strength

A strong balance sheet with low leverage ensures financial stability and resilience, allowing for sustained growth and risk management.

Negative Factors

Earnings Call Absence

Lack of earnings call data limits transparency and investor insight into management's strategic direction and operational performance.

Technical Analysis Weakness

Technical weakness may indicate potential challenges in market perception, affecting investor confidence and stock performance.

Mixed Technical Indicators

Negative technical indicators could reflect underlying market concerns, potentially impacting stock attractiveness and investor sentiment.

ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A (2057) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)

Market Cap

HK$117.77B

Dividend Yield3.64%

Average Volume (3M)2.48M

Price to Earnings (P/E)13.1

Beta (1Y)0.87

Revenue Growth13.97%

EPS Growth2.03%

CountryHK

Employees24,477

SectorIndustrials

Sector Strength72

IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)2.58

Shares Outstanding598,368,470

10 Day Avg. Volume2,021,017

30 Day Avg. Volume2,476,471

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

HK$178.50

Price Target Upside22.34% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering4

ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. The company offers delivery services for e-commerce and traditional merchants, and other express service users. As of December 31, 2021, it operated a fleet of approximately 10,900 trucks. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

How the Company Makes MoneyZTO Express makes money through multiple revenue streams, primarily driven by its core express delivery services, which cater to the booming e-commerce industry in China. The company charges customers for parcel delivery services based on package weight, distance, and delivery speed. Additional revenue comes from value-added services, including warehousing, freight forwarding, and cross-border logistics solutions. ZTO Express also benefits from strategic partnerships with major e-commerce platforms, which provide a steady stream of parcel volume. Furthermore, the company's expansive network and operational efficiency help in managing costs, thereby enhancing profitability.

ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 19, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Nov 25, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mixed outlook. While there were significant achievements in parcel volume growth, cost efficiency, and adjusted net income, these were tempered by challenges such as intensified price competition and a notable decrease in gross profit margins.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Parcel Volume Growth

ZTO delivered a total parcel volume of 8.5 billion in Q1 2025, up 19.1% year-over-year.

Growth in Retail and Reverse Logistics

Retail parcel volume increased 46% year-over-year in Q1, with reverse logistics volumes surging over 150%.

Cost Efficiency Improvements

Unit transportation and sorting costs decreased by CNY 0.09 year-over-year, demonstrating improvements in operational efficiency.

Adjusted Net Income Increase

Adjusted net income reached CNY 2.3 billion, marking a 1.6% year-over-year increase.

Revenue Growth

Total revenue increased by 9.4% to CNY 10.9 billion for Q1 2025.

Negative Updates

Intensified Price Competition

ASP for core express delivery business decreased by 7.8% due to intensified competition and an increased proportion of lower-value parcels.

Gross Profit Decline

Gross profit decreased by 10.4%, and gross profit margin rate decreased by 5.4 points to 24.7%.

Increased Volume Incentives

Volume incentives increased to CNY 0.16, significantly higher than the previous year's CNY 0.04, indicating competitive pressure to maintain volume.

Company Guidance

During the first quarter of 2025, ZTO Express provided comprehensive guidance focusing on their strategic initiatives and financial outlook. The company reported a 19.1% year-over-year increase in parcel volume to 8.5 billion and achieved an adjusted net income of CNY 2.3 billion, marking a 1.6% increase. Despite the express delivery industry's 21.6% growth in parcel volume, ZTO faced intensified price competition and a growing proportion of lower-value parcels. To address these challenges, ZTO emphasized enhancing service quality, increasing retail parcel penetration, and optimizing cost structures. The ASP for core express services saw a positive shift of CNY 0.12 due to an improved product mix, while unit transportation and sorting costs decreased by CNY 0.09 year-over-year. The company reiterated its full-year parcel volume guidance of 40.8 billion to 42.2 billion, representing a 20% to 24% increase. The guidance also highlighted ongoing investments in technology, including AI applications in sorting and route planning, to drive operational efficiencies and maintain market competitiveness.

ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Financial Statement Overview

Summary

ZTO Express exhibits strong financial performance across income, balance sheet, and cash flow metrics. The company has achieved significant revenue and profit growth, supported by robust margins. Its balance sheet reflects financial stability with low leverage and high equity. Additionally, cash flow generation is strong, enhancing liquidity. Overall, ZTO Express is well-positioned within the Integrated Freight & Logistics industry, demonstrating financial strength and growth potential.

Income Statement

Very Positive

ZTO Express has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a Revenue Growth Rate of 16.8% from 2023 to 2024 and further growth in TTM. The company's Gross Profit Margin is robust at 29.6% for TTM, showing efficient cost management. The Net Profit Margin of 20.8% is impressive, reflecting solid profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 26.4% and 27.8%, respectively, indicating operational efficiency. Overall, the income statement reflects strong growth and profitability.

Balance Sheet

Very Positive

ZTO Express maintains a strong balance sheet characterized by a low Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.27, indicating prudent financial leverage. The Equity Ratio of 66.8% reflects a solid equity position relative to total assets, suggesting financial stability. The company also demonstrates a high Return on Equity of 15.1%, underscoring efficient use of shareholder funds to generate profits. Overall, the balance sheet is marked by low leverage and strong equity, indicating financial health.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

ZTO Express's cash flow performance is robust, with a Free Cash Flow Growth Rate of 64.9% from 2023 to 2024. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 1.25 suggests strong cash generation relative to earnings. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 0.97 indicates efficient conversion of profits into cash flow. Overall, the company exhibits strong cash flow generation and management, supporting its liquidity position.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	45.21B	44.28B	38.42B	35.38B	30.41B	25.21B
Gross Profit	13.40B	13.72B	11.66B	9.04B	6.59B	5.84B
EBITDA	13.16B	15.04B	13.85B	11.15B	5.87B	5.20B
Net Income	9.38B	8.82B	8.75B	6.81B	4.75B	4.31B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	93.15B	92.34B	88.47B	78.52B	62.77B	59.20B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	23.02B	22.31B	19.89B	17.45B	12.57B	17.90B
Total Debt	17.08B	17.35B	15.44B	13.12B	4.44B	2.51B
Total Liabilities	30.28B	29.67B	28.18B	24.05B	13.84B	10.11B
Stockholders Equity	62.21B	62.06B	59.80B	54.03B	48.64B	48.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	9.11B	5.53B	6.69B	4.07B	-2.11B	-4.26B
Operating Cash Flow	11.76B	11.43B	13.36B	11.48B	7.22B	4.95B
Investing Cash Flow	-6.76B	-5.98B	-12.25B	-16.04B	-8.76B	-3.55B
Financing Cash Flow	-5.39B	-5.00B	-769.84M	7.06B	-2.90B	8.34B

ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price145.90

Price Trends

50DMA

151.46

Negative

100DMA

145.93

Negative

200DMA

147.31

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.77

Negative

RSI

45.36

Neutral

STOCH

53.97

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:2057, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 145.9 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 146.18, below the 50-day MA of 151.46, and below the 200-day MA of 147.31, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.77 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:2057.

ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Risk Analysis

ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A disclosed 95 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
0598	78 Outperform	47.71B	8.66	9.90%	6.16%	-9.71%	-1.78%
2057	75 Outperform	HK$117.77B	13.14	13.91%	3.64%	13.97%	2.03%
2490	71 Outperform	4.76B	8.84	26.32%	4.66%	56.58%	1963.38%
2618	70 Outperform	92.84B	12.64	11.20%	―	11.05%	81.01%
0636	58 Neutral	14.13B	10.37	0.00%	3.41%	26.36%	-18.67%
1519	55 Neutral	81.07B	65.16	3.56%	―	12.14%	0.00%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

HK:2057

ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A

145.90

-23.90

-14.08%

KRRYF

KLN Logistics Group Limited

1.08

0.24

28.57%

SNOTF

Sinotrans

0.66

0.25

60.98%

HK:2618

JD Logistics, Inc.

13.87

3.67

35.98%

HK:2490

LC Logistics, Inc

8.22

-6.03

-42.32%

HK:1519

J&T Global Express Limited

9.51

3.74

64.82%

ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Corporate Events

ZTO Express Amends Tender Offer for Convertible Notes

Aug 31, 2025

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. announced an amendment to its tender offer statement concerning the 1.50% Convertible Senior Notes due 2027, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. This move highlights the company’s ongoing financial strategies and obligations to its noteholders, potentially impacting its financial positioning and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2057) stock is a Buy with a HK$181.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A stock, see the HK:2057 Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 19, 2025