ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A (HK:2057)
:2057
Top Page
ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A
(2057)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:79Outperform
Price Target:
HK$186.00
▼(-2.11% Downside)
Action:UpgradedDate:11/28/25
ZTO Express earns a strong overall score of 79, driven primarily by robust financial performance with high profitability and a stable balance sheet, despite cash flow concerns. Bullish technical indicators further support the score, with the stock trading above key moving averages, while a reasonable P/E ratio and solid dividend yield bolster the valuation perspective. Investors should monitor free cash flow declines and potential overbought signals as key risks.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates ZTO Express's ability to expand its market presence and capture more business in the e-commerce sector, supporting long-term business sustainability.
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Decline
A decline in free cash flow growth can limit ZTO Express's ability to fund new initiatives or return capital to shareholders, potentially impacting future growth and shareholder value.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates ZTO Express's ability to expand its market presence and capture more business in the e-commerce sector, supporting long-term business sustainability.
Read all positive factors
ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A (2057) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$143.01B
Dividend Yield3.05%
Average Volume (3M)1.71M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.2
Beta (1Y)0.78
Revenue Growth12.64%
EPS Growth2.90%
CountryHK
Employees24,477
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.77
Shares Outstanding563,800,700
10 Day Avg. Volume1,353,918
30 Day Avg. Volume1,711,855
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio11.99
Price to Book (P/B)1.89
Price to Sales (P/S)2.64
P/FCF Ratio21.18
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
HK$223.36Price Target Upside17.56% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)15.07
Revenue Forecast (FY)HK$62.73B
ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. The company offers delivery services for e-commerce and traditional merchants, and other express service users. As of D...
How the Company Makes Money
ZTO Express generates revenue primarily through its express delivery services, which include both domestic and international parcel shipping. The company charges customers based on the weight, size, and delivery distance of parcels. Key revenue st...
ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced notable operational and strategic positives — robust parcel volume growth, significant retail mix expansion, meaningful cash-flow strength, productivity gains from AI and tech, and an enhanced shareholder-return program — against margin and profit compression driven by rising costs (especially KA costs) and industry-wide transition risks. Management provided constructive 2026 guidance (10%–13% parcel growth) and concrete network-support measures (RMB 200 million incentive fund) while emphasizing quality-focused execution.Positive Updates
Strong Volume Growth and Market Share Expansion
Q4 parcel volume reached 10.56 billion, up 9.2% YoY; full-year parcel volume was 38.5 billion, up 13.3% YoY. Market share expanded by 0.8 percentage points as ZTO maintained industry-leading service quality while the industry hit ~200 billion parcels (+13.6% industry growth in 2025).
Negative Updates
Decline in Gross Profit and Margins
Gross profit declined 2.1% YoY to RMB 3.7 billion in Q4 and declined 10.5% YoY to RMB 12.3 billion for the year. Gross profit margin fell 3.7 percentage points in Q4 to 25.4% and fell 6.0 percentage points for the full year to 25.0%.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Volume Growth and Market Share Expansion
Q4 parcel volume reached 10.56 billion, up 9.2% YoY; full-year parcel volume was 38.5 billion, up 13.3% YoY. Market share expanded by 0.8 percentage points as ZTO maintained industry-leading service quality while the industry hit ~200 billion parcels (+13.6% industry growth in 2025).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For 2026 the company guided parcel volume growth of 10%–13% year‑over‑year, implying annual volume of about 42.37–43.52 billion parcels (vs. Postal Bureau’s ~8% industry estimate) and reiterated its goal to grow faster than the industry average; on capital allocation the Board approved a semi‑annual cash dividend of USD 0.39 per ADS (under the established 40% payout ratio), authorized a new 24‑month $1.5 billion share‑buyback program through March 2028, and launched an enhanced shareholder‑return target of aggregate annual returns of no less than 50% of prior‑year adjusted net income (2025 adjusted net income was RMB 9.5 billion, implying ~RMB 4.75 billion if based on 2025 results); the company also issued $1.5 billion five‑year convertible bonds (net ≈ $1.4 billion) to fund buybacks, has completed ≈$600 million of repurchases to date and plans to repurchase the remaining ≈$800 million over the next year.ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
65
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 46.32B | 44.28B | 38.42B | 35.38B | 30.41B | 25.21B |
| Gross Profit | 12.73B | 13.72B | 11.66B | 9.04B | 6.59B | 5.84B |
| EBITDA | 14.53B | 15.04B | 13.85B | 10.41B | 8.09B | 6.59B |
| Net Income | 8.71B | 8.82B | 8.75B | 6.81B | 4.75B | 4.31B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 94.62B | 92.34B | 88.47B | 78.52B | 62.77B | 59.20B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 26.52B | 22.31B | 19.89B | 17.58B | 12.72B | 17.90B |
| Total Debt | 18.87B | 17.35B | 15.44B | 13.12B | 4.44B | 2.51B |
| Total Liabilities | 29.76B | 29.67B | 28.18B | 24.05B | 13.84B | 10.11B |
| Stockholders Equity | 64.20B | 62.06B | 59.80B | 54.03B | 48.64B | 48.98B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.32B | 5.53B | 6.69B | 4.07B | -2.11B | -4.26B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 10.45B | 11.43B | 13.36B | 11.48B | 7.22B | 4.95B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.26B | -5.98B | -12.25B | -16.04B | -8.76B | -3.55B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.40B | -5.00B | -769.84M | 7.06B | -2.90B | 8.34B |
ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Technical Analysis
Positive
190.00
Price Trends
182.19
Positive
170.44
Positive
157.02
Positive
Market Momentum
2.14
Positive
54.84
Neutral
29.51
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:2057, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 190 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 186.25, above the 50-day MA of 182.19, and above the 200-day MA of 157.02, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.51 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HK:2057.
ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Risk Analysis
ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A disclosed 95 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | HK$143.01B | 11.17 | 14.02% | 3.05% | 12.64% | 2.90% | |
73 Outperform | HK$94.22B | 9.94 | 7.51% | ― | 11.05% | 81.01% | |
64 Neutral | HK$48.04B | 11.39 | 9.46% | 6.39% | -17.69% | -3.38% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | HK$12.00B | 5.27 | 8.00% | 3.55% | 26.36% | -18.67% | |
62 Neutral | HK$2.38B | 17.02 | 9.22% | 8.25% | 56.58% | 1963.38% | |
61 Neutral | HK$91.56B | 24.42 | 5.53% | ― | 12.14% | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
HK:2057
ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A
190.00
58.75
44.76%
HK:0636
KLN Logistics Group Limited
6.64
1.08
19.51%
HK:0598
Sinotrans
4.98
1.94
63.76%
HK:2618
JD Logistics, Inc.
14.12
3.26
30.02%
HK:2490
LC Logistics, Inc
4.16
-5.06
-54.89%
HK:1519
J&T Global Express Limited
10.29
5.47
113.49%
ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Corporate Events
ZTO Express Announces Resignation of Independent Non-Executive Director Daniel Kao
Dec 31, 2025
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc., a Cayman Islands–incorporated, dual-listed company with a weighted voting rights share structure and American depositary shares trading on the NYSE, maintains a board composed of executive, non-executive and indepe...
ZTO Express Updates Board and Committee Composition
Dec 31, 2025
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc., a major express delivery and logistics operator incorporated in the Cayman Islands and listed in Hong Kong, has disclosed the current composition of its board of directors, which includes executive, non-executive, and in...
ZTO Express Renews Connected Transactions to Secure Key Logistics Supplies
Dec 29, 2025
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. has renewed a series of continuing connected transactions by entering into new framework agreements on December 29, 2025, effective from January 1, 2026 to December 31, 2028, with counterparties regarded as connected pers...
ZTO Express Acquires Zhejiang Xinglian in RMB178 Million Deal
Nov 28, 2025
ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. has announced a connected transaction involving the acquisition of 100% equity interest in Zhejiang Xinglian by ZTO Aviation, a consolidated affiliated entity of the company. The acquisition, valued at RMB178,000,000, wi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.