ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A (HK:2057)
:2057
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ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A
(2057)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
HK$205.00
▲(5.29% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:04/21/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial quality (profitability and low leverage) and attractive valuation (low P/E plus dividend). Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend, while earnings-call takeaways are mixed: upbeat growth guidance and enhanced shareholder returns are tempered by ongoing margin compression and rising costs.
Positive Factors
Profitability
ZTO has sustained industry-leading profitability with ~25% gross and ~18% net margins in 2025, reflecting durable unit economics from scale, pricing on higher‑value retail parcels, and operational efficiency. Strong margins support free cash flow and reinvestment capacity over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Margin Compression
Material margin erosion in 2025 signals structural cost pressure rather than a one‑off: declines across gross and operating margins indicate that rising input costs and competitive pricing are eroding unit economics, challenging the company’s ability to convert scale into sustained profit growth absent corrective measures.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Profitability
ZTO has sustained industry-leading profitability with ~25% gross and ~18% net margins in 2025, reflecting durable unit economics from scale, pricing on higher‑value retail parcels, and operational efficiency. Strong margins support free cash flow and reinvestment capacity over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A (2057) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$131.04B
Dividend Yield3.05%
Average Volume (3M)1.71M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.2
Beta (1Y)0.75
Revenue Growth16.03%
EPS Growth1.30%
CountryHK
Employees24,477
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)10.88
Shares Outstanding563,800,700
10 Day Avg. Volume1,353,918
30 Day Avg. Volume1,711,855
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio10.28
Price to Book (P/B)1.75
Price to Sales (P/S)2.43
P/FCF Ratio17.67
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
HK$230.55Price Target Upside18.41% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)15.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)HK$63.48B
ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. The company offers delivery services for e-commerce and traditional merchants, and other express service users. As of D...
How the Company Makes Money
ZTO Express primarily makes money by charging for express parcel delivery and related logistics services. Its core revenue stream comes from providing end-to-end parcel services (pickup, line-haul transport, sorting, and last-mile delivery), with ...
ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced notable operational and strategic positives — robust parcel volume growth, significant retail mix expansion, meaningful cash-flow strength, productivity gains from AI and tech, and an enhanced shareholder-return program — against margin and profit compression driven by rising costs (especially KA costs) and industry-wide transition risks. Management provided constructive 2026 guidance (10%–13% parcel growth) and concrete network-support measures (RMB 200 million incentive fund) while emphasizing quality-focused execution.Positive Updates
Strong Volume Growth and Market Share Expansion
Q4 parcel volume reached 10.56 billion, up 9.2% YoY; full-year parcel volume was 38.5 billion, up 13.3% YoY. Market share expanded by 0.8 percentage points as ZTO maintained industry-leading service quality while the industry hit ~200 billion parcels (+13.6% industry growth in 2025).
Negative Updates
Decline in Gross Profit and Margins
Gross profit declined 2.1% YoY to RMB 3.7 billion in Q4 and declined 10.5% YoY to RMB 12.3 billion for the year. Gross profit margin fell 3.7 percentage points in Q4 to 25.4% and fell 6.0 percentage points for the full year to 25.0%.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Volume Growth and Market Share Expansion
Q4 parcel volume reached 10.56 billion, up 9.2% YoY; full-year parcel volume was 38.5 billion, up 13.3% YoY. Market share expanded by 0.8 percentage points as ZTO maintained industry-leading service quality while the industry hit ~200 billion parcels (+13.6% industry growth in 2025).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For 2026 the company guided parcel volume growth of 10%–13% year‑over‑year, implying annual volume of about 42.37–43.52 billion parcels (vs. Postal Bureau’s ~8% industry estimate) and reiterated its goal to grow faster than the industry average; on capital allocation the Board approved a semi‑annual cash dividend of USD 0.39 per ADS (under the established 40% payout ratio), authorized a new 24‑month $1.5 billion share‑buyback program through March 2028, and launched an enhanced shareholder‑return target of aggregate annual returns of no less than 50% of prior‑year adjusted net income (2025 adjusted net income was RMB 9.5 billion, implying ~RMB 4.75 billion if based on 2025 results); the company also issued $1.5 billion five‑year convertible bonds (net ≈ $1.4 billion) to fund buybacks, has completed ≈$600 million of repurchases to date and plans to repurchase the remaining ≈$800 million over the next year.ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 46.32B | 47.83B | 44.28B | 38.42B | 35.38B | 30.41B |
| Gross Profit | 12.73B | 11.95B | 13.72B | 11.66B | 9.04B | 6.59B |
| EBITDA | 14.53B | 12.68B | 15.04B | 13.85B | 10.41B | 8.09B |
| Net Income | 8.71B | 8.85B | 8.82B | 8.75B | 6.81B | 4.75B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 94.62B | 91.06B | 92.34B | 88.47B | 78.52B | 62.77B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 26.52B | 25.67B | 22.31B | 19.89B | 17.58B | 12.72B |
| Total Debt | 18.87B | 11.48B | 17.35B | 15.44B | 13.12B | 4.44B |
| Total Liabilities | 29.76B | 23.90B | 29.67B | 28.18B | 24.05B | 13.84B |
| Stockholders Equity | 64.20B | 66.41B | 62.06B | 59.80B | 54.03B | 48.64B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.32B | 6.58B | 5.53B | 6.69B | 4.07B | -2.11B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 10.45B | 11.66B | 11.43B | 13.36B | 11.48B | 7.22B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.26B | -4.69B | -5.98B | -12.25B | -16.04B | -8.76B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.40B | -10.30B | -5.00B | -769.84M | 7.06B | -2.90B |
ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Technical Analysis
Negative
194.70
Price Trends
191.51
Negative
182.65
Negative
165.40
Positive
Market Momentum
-2.41
Positive
31.97
Neutral
6.32
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:2057, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 194.7 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 196.04, above the 50-day MA of 191.51, and above the 200-day MA of 165.40, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.41 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.32 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:2057.
ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Risk Analysis
ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A disclosed 95 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
We are a "controlled company" within the meaning of the NYSE Listed Company Manual and, as a result, may rely on exemptions from certain corporate governance requirements that provide protection to shareholders of other companies. Q4, 2023
2.
Conversion of our convertible senior notes may dilute the ownership interest of the existing shareholders. Q4, 2023
3.
Provisions of our convertible senior notes could discourage an acquisition of us by a third-party. Q4, 2023
ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | HK$47.30B | 11.05 | 9.96% | 6.39% | -8.51% | 9.94% | |
75 Outperform | HK$91.35B | ― | 7.60% | ― | 18.89% | 6.97% | |
74 Outperform | HK$131.04B | 11.17 | 14.02% | 3.05% | 16.03% | 1.30% | |
65 Neutral | HK$11.51B | 4.20 | 8.00% | 3.55% | -3.33% | -8.42% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
58 Neutral | HK$78.48B | 25.39 | 6.50% | ― | 18.42% | 97.52% | |
54 Neutral | HK$2.86B | 21.77 | 9.22% | 8.25% | -3.77% | -65.34% |
* Industrials Sector Average
HK:2057
ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A
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ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Corporate Events
ZTO Express Sets May 20 Release for First-Quarter 2026 Results
Apr 24, 2026
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. has scheduled a board meeting for May 19, 2026, in Beijing to approve and authorize the publication of its unaudited financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The company plans to release these first-q...
ZTO Express Files 2025 Form 20-F With U.S. SEC
Apr 17, 2026
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. announced that it has filed its annual report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The filing underscores the company’s ongoing compliance with ...
ZTO Express Calls 2026 AGM, Seeks Broad Share Issuance Mandate
Apr 17, 2026
ZTO Express has called an annual general meeting for June 16, 2026 in Hong Kong, where shareholders will review the company’s audited financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2025 and receive reports from its directors and audito...
ZTO Express Publishes Unaudited 2025 Results and Warns on Industry Risks
Mar 17, 2026
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. has released its unaudited financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, prepared under U.S. GAAP and published in line with U.S. and Hong Kong regulatory requirements. The company has ca...
ZTO Express Grows Revenue in 2025 but Faces Rising Cost Pressures
Mar 17, 2026
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc., a major player in China’s express delivery and logistics sector, operates through Class A and Class B ordinary shares under a weighted voting rights structure, with its American depositary shares traded on the New ...
ZTO Express Declares Semi-Annual Dividend of USD 0.39 Per Share
Mar 17, 2026
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc., a major player in the express delivery and logistics industry serving e-commerce and other cargo customers, operates through an international corporate structure incorporated in the Cayman Islands and listed in Hong Kong...
ZTO Express Outlines Board and Committee Structure
Mar 17, 2026
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. has disclosed the composition of its board of directors, which includes three executive directors, two non-executive directors, and three independent non-executive directors overseeing the company. The announcement unders...
ZTO Express Sets March 2026 Board Meeting to Approve 2025 Results and Consider Dividend
Feb 27, 2026
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. has scheduled a board meeting for March 17, 2026, in Beijing to review and approve its unaudited financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, as well as to consider a potential dividend....
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.