Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited (1788) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: HK$26.54B
• Dividend Yield: 2.75%
• Average Volume (3M): 81.45M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 36.4
• Beta (1Y): 2.66
• Revenue Growth: 32.03%
• EPS Growth: 154.14%
• Country: HK
• Employees: 623
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Capital Markets
• EPS (TTM): 0.06
• Shares Outstanding: 9,529,944,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 52,053,114
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 81,447,206
• PEG Ratio: 0.42
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.72
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.94
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.16
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.23
• Revenue Forecast (FY): HK$29.88B

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: HK$3.00 ▲(13.21% Upside)

The score is primarily weighed down by weak cash-flow quality and thin profitability despite improved operating efficiency, alongside mixed-to-weak technicals (negative MACD and trading below longer-term averages). Valuation is also a headwind due to a high P/E, with only modest support from the dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Operational Efficiency

A rising EBIT margin to 12.9% indicates meaningful improvement in cost control and core operating profitability. Over 2–6 months this strengthens resilience to revenue swings, supports reinvestment or underwriting capacity in capital markets, and reflects durable execution by management.

Diversified Revenue Streams

Multiple business lines (brokerage, wealth, investment banking, asset management, proprietary trading) reduce single-segment dependence. This structural mix supports steadier fee and commission income across market cycles and enables cross‑selling, improving revenue stability over the medium term.

Moderate Leverage

A 0.50 debt-to-equity ratio signals moderate leverage and a stable equity base, giving the firm financial flexibility to fund growth or absorb shocks without excessive solvency strain. Over months, this supports strategic activity while limiting bankruptcy risk versus highly levered peers.

Negative Factors

Weak Cash Generation

Persistent negative free cash flow is a structural concern: it restricts the firm's ability to self-fund operations, capital expenditure, dividends or buybacks, and increases reliance on external financing. Over the medium term this can constrain strategic investments and raise liquidity risk.

Thin Net Profitability

A 1.6% net margin leaves a thin earnings buffer after costs and taxes. This limits retained earnings accumulation and makes the firm vulnerable to interest or market shocks. Even with better EBIT, low net conversion constrains balance sheet build‑up and long‑term capital formation.

High Total Liabilities

Elevated absolute liabilities raise liability servicing and liquidity pressures, particularly if markets tighten or rates rise. Even with moderate D/E, large liabilities can limit strategic flexibility, increase refinancing needs, and magnify counterparty and funding risks over the medium term.

Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides brokerage, corporate finance, asset management, loans and financing, financial products, and market making and investment services in Hong Kong and internationally. The company's Wealth Management segment provides a range financial services and solutions to individual investors and small to medium-sized businesses and family office, including brokerage, loans and financing, and other wealth management services. Its Institutional Investor Services segment offers market making, investments, structured product solutions, lending, and other services to corporations, governments, and financial institutions. The company's Corporate Finance segment provides advisory services; and placing and underwriting services of debt and equity securities. Its Investment Management segment offers asset management and fund management services to institutions and individuals; and invests in funds, debts, and equity securities. The company's Other segment provides information channel services. It also provides securities, futures, and leveraged foreign exchange dealing and broking services; money lending and trading services; and consultancy and financial services. The company was founded in 1995 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Guotai Junan Financial Holdings Limited.

How the Company Makes Money

Guotai Junan International generates revenue through multiple channels. The primary revenue streams include commissions and fees earned from brokerage services, which involve facilitating the buying and selling of securities for clients. Additionally, the company earns income from wealth management services, where it charges fees for managing client assets and providing financial advisory services. Investment banking activities, including underwriting and advisory services for mergers and acquisitions, also contribute significantly to its revenue. Furthermore, the company engages in proprietary trading, generating profits from trading its own capital in financial markets. Strategic partnerships with other financial institutions and access to extensive networks enhance its offerings and client base, thereby contributing to its earnings potential.

Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited shows strong operational efficiency gains but struggles with profitability and cash flow management. The balance sheet indicates stability, but high liabilities and negative cash flow trends pose risks to future financial flexibility.

Income Statement

The company has shown a mixed performance with declining revenue over the years, but an improvement in EBIT margin from 5.2% in 2023 to 12.9% in 2024 indicates better operational efficiency. However, the net profit margin remains low at 1.6% in 2024, reflecting challenges in achieving profitability.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a stable equity position and a reasonable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.50 in 2024. However, the high total liabilities pose a potential risk. The equity ratio improved slightly over the year, indicating a stable asset financing structure.

Cash Flow

The cash flow performance is concerning with consistent negative free cash flow, indicating cash management challenges. The lack of operating cash flow and capital expenditure data in 2024 makes it difficult to assess the company's cash utilization effectively.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.71B	2.17B	3.22B	2.32B	3.97B	4.88B
Gross Profit	2.71B	3.47B	2.33B	2.11B	3.21B	3.76B
EBITDA	3.39B	2.89B	1.77B	615.02M	2.14B	2.71B
Net Income	702.93M	347.78M	201.26M	80.38M	1.09B	1.56B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	121.79B	130.17B	107.54B	94.46B	106.29B	121.72B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	39.80B	80.91B	59.27B	40.02B	28.13B	59.55B
Total Debt	7.63B	89.43B	69.73B	58.53B	60.12B	75.06B
Total Liabilities	106.24B	115.15B	92.57B	79.52B	90.85B	106.48B
Stockholders Equity	15.43B	14.91B	14.84B	14.81B	15.31B	15.12B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-346.70M	1.74B	-4.94B	-1.92B	38.97M	23.06M
Operating Cash Flow	-315.90M	1.78B	-4.91B	1.66B	5.88B	59.20M
Investing Cash Flow	19.03B	-50.75M	-32.67M	-39.30M	-43.06M	-36.15M
Financing Cash Flow	-14.76B	-2.23B	4.58B	801.87M	-5.98B	13.41B

Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 2.65
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:1788, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.65 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.60, below the 50-day MA of 2.87, and below the 200-day MA of 3.22, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:1788.

Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
1476	64 Neutral	HK$4.95B	11.98	4.33%	―	58.09%	―
1375	55 Neutral	HK$19.72B	20.02	3.28%	1.25%	-36.99%	181.79%
1428	54 Neutral	HK$14.77B	23.37	43.44%	4.01%	11.40%	11.52%
1788	53 Neutral	HK$26.54B	36.36	4.78%	2.75%	32.03%	154.14%
0218	53 Neutral	HK$2.29B	-35.31	-2.44%	―	-45.13%	60.10%
0993	39 Underperform	HK$1.22B	-1.16	―	―	-78.40%	-196.19%

Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited Corporate Events

Guotai Junan International Tightens Nomination Committee Rules to Strengthen Board Governance

Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited has updated the terms of reference for its Nomination Committee, a board-level body responsible for overseeing the composition and appointment of directors, most recently amending them on 29 December 2025. The revised framework emphasizes a balanced and diverse board, requiring a majority of independent non-executive directors on the committee, at least one member of a different gender, and formal, transparent procedures for director selection, independence assessment, succession planning and performance evaluation, reinforcing the company’s corporate governance practices and alignment with Hong Kong Listing Rules and market expectations on board diversity and independence.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1788) stock is a Hold with a HK$2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited stock, see the HK:1788 Stock Forecast page.

Guotai Junan Secures HK$1.95 Billion Credit Facility with Contingency Clauses

Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited has entered into committed facility agreements with several banks in Hong Kong, securing revolving credit facilities totaling up to HK$1.95 billion. These agreements stipulate that a change in the controlling shareholder, Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd., could trigger an event of default, allowing lenders to demand immediate repayment. This financial arrangement underscores the company’s reliance on its controlling shareholder’s stability and highlights potential risks for stakeholders should any changes occur in the ownership structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1788) stock is a Hold with a HK$3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited stock, see the HK:1788 Stock Forecast page.