AIA Group (1299) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: HK$887.32B
• Dividend Yield: 2.16%
• Average Volume (3M): 26.82M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.22
• Revenue Growth: 5.65%
• EPS Growth: 30.47%
• Country: HK
• Employees: 23,000
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Life
• EPS (TTM): 1.86
• Shares Outstanding: 10,506,617,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 22,623,178
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 26,821,457
• PEG Ratio: 0.13
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.98
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.94
• P/FCF Ratio: 26.49
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: HK$95.22
• Price Target Upside: 12.22% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: HK$91.00 ▲(7.25% Upside)

AIA Group's strong earnings call performance and robust financial metrics are the primary drivers of the stock's score. While technical indicators suggest caution due to overbought conditions, the company's strategic growth in key markets and solid valuation metrics support a positive outlook.

Positive Factors

Strong Market Position in Asia

AIA's strategic focus on expanding in China and other Asian markets positions it well for long-term growth, leveraging its competitive advantages in distribution and product offerings.

Operational Efficiency

Record operational metrics indicate strong management and efficient use of resources, enhancing profitability and shareholder value over time.

Cash Generation Ability

Strong cash generation supports financial flexibility and the ability to invest in growth opportunities, ensuring long-term financial health.

Negative Factors

Revenue Growth Challenges

A decline in revenue growth can hinder AIA's ability to scale and compete, potentially impacting its market share and profitability in the long run.

Cash Flow Generation Issues

Challenges in cash flow generation could limit AIA's ability to fund new initiatives and maintain operational stability, affecting long-term growth prospects.

Regulatory Challenges

Regulatory changes in key markets like Malaysia can disrupt business operations and growth, necessitating strategic adjustments to maintain market position.

AIA Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AIA Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides life insurance based financial services. The company offers life insurance, accident, and health insurance and savings plans; and employee benefits, credit life, and pension services to corporate clients. It also distributes investment and other financial services products. The company sells its products through a network of agents and partners in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, Thailand, Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia, Australia, Cambodia, Indonesia, Myanmar, New Zealand, the Philippines, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Vietnam, and India. AIA Group Limited was founded in 1919 and is based in Central, Hong Kong.

How the Company Makes Money

AIA Group generates revenue primarily through the sale of insurance products, which includes premiums collected from life and health insurance policies. The company earns money by charging policyholders for coverage, which is a significant portion of its revenue stream. In addition to premiums, AIA makes money through investment income generated from the assets it manages on behalf of policyholders. The company invests in a diversified portfolio of assets, including stocks, bonds, and real estate, which contributes to its overall profitability. AIA also benefits from fee income from asset management services and has established significant partnerships with various financial institutions, enhancing its distribution channels and expanding its market reach. Furthermore, the group's focus on digital transformation and innovation allows it to improve operational efficiency and customer engagement, driving growth in its earnings.

AIA Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

AIA Group demonstrates strong profitability with impressive profit margins and manageable leverage. However, challenges in revenue growth and cash flow generation may impact future financial flexibility. Continued focus on operational efficiency and cash flow management will be crucial to maintain financial health.

Income Statement

AIA Group displayed strong profitability with a consistent gross profit margin of 100% due to revenue equaling gross profit. The net profit margin improved significantly to 33.6% in 2024 from 18.3% in 2023, indicating enhanced profitability. However, the revenue growth rate was negative at -1.12% in 2024, suggesting a slight revenue decline. The EBIT and EBITDA margins were robust at 38.5% and 43.8%, respectively, in 2024, showing effective cost management and operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a stable balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.34 in 2024, reflecting manageable leverage. Return on equity improved to 16.9% in 2024, indicating better profitability from shareholders' equity. The equity ratio was 13.3%, showing a stable equity position relative to total assets. Overall, the balance sheet exhibits financial stability with moderate leverage levels.

Cash Flow

The cash flow from operations decreased significantly in 2024, impacting the operating cash flow to net income ratio, which dropped to 0.48. Free cash flow growth was negative, with a decline from 2023 to 2024. The free cash flow to net income ratio was 0.44, indicating a lower conversion of net income to free cash flow. These factors suggest potential challenges in cash flow generation despite profitability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	25.49B	20.36B	20.03B	-24.96B	46.90B	50.85B
Gross Profit	25.49B	28.02B	19.76B	-18.87B	46.36B	50.85B
EBITDA	8.08B	8.92B	5.46B	4.84B	9.22B	11.37B
Net Income	6.06B	6.84B	3.76B	3.33B	7.43B	5.78B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	328.43B	305.45B	286.32B	270.47B	339.87B	326.12B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	0.00	106.39B	100.14B	8.02B	166.08B	4.40B
Total Debt	14.38B	13.67B	12.16B	11.60B	10.06B	7.87B
Total Liabilities	287.56B	264.64B	244.72B	225.32B	278.94B	262.45B
Stockholders Equity	40.51B	40.49B	41.11B	44.67B	60.47B	63.20B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	6.63B	3.03B	10.59B	9.48B	3.27B	2.10B
Operating Cash Flow	6.63B	3.26B	10.92B	9.87B	3.91B	2.36B
Investing Cash Flow	-849.00M	-945.00M	-2.14B	-817.00M	-2.78B	-1.22B
Financing Cash Flow	-5.29B	-5.69B	-6.07B	-4.79B	-1.66B	392.00M

AIA Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 84.85
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:1299, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 84.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 83.10, above the 50-day MA of 81.22, and above the 200-day MA of 70.99, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.31 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.36 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HK:1299.

AIA Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
1336	83 Outperform	HK$256.41B	5.91	34.37%	5.24%	49.90%	203.77%
2628	83 Outperform	HK$1.40T	7.80	28.10%	3.42%	17.69%	126.41%
2601	79 Outperform	HK$454.49B	6.60	18.41%	3.28%	15.08%	23.13%
2318	78 Outperform	HK$1.31T	8.16	14.53%	4.25%	10.20%	19.74%
1299	72 Outperform	HK$887.32B	19.39	15.16%	2.16%	5.65%	30.47%
0966	71 Outperform	HK$75.47B	9.24	10.74%	1.81%	23.64%	36.32%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

AIA Group Corporate Events

AIA Group Achieves Record 25% Growth in Q3 2025 Value of New Business

AIA Group Limited reported a record 25% increase in the value of new business (VONB) for the third quarter of 2025, reaching US$1,476 million. This growth was driven by double-digit increases in key markets such as Hong Kong, Mainland China, ASEAN, and India, with a notable 19% growth in agency VONB and an 18% rise in recruitment. The company’s strategic execution and strong distribution channels are expected to continue driving long-term sustainable value and higher earnings.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1299) stock is a Buy with a HK$79.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AIA Group stock, see the HK:1299 Stock Forecast page.