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AIA Group (HK:1299)
:1299

AIA Group (1299) AI Stock Analysis

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HK

AIA Group

(OTC:1299)

Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
HK$75.00
▲(4.75%Upside)
The overall stock score of 78 reflects AIA Group's strong financial performance and positive earnings call, which highlight record growth and strategic expansions. Technical analysis supports a bullish trend. However, challenges in cash flow and revenue growth, along with fair valuation, slightly moderate the score.
Positive Factors
Business Expansion
AIA China received approval to prepare for new branches in four provinces and cities, ahead of the original one-year one-branch target.
Leadership
Mark Tucker’s appointment as AIA’s new chairman is seen as positive due to his strong track record and knowledge of the company's operations.
Shareholder Return
The recently announced US$1.6bn share buyback programme is expected to provide near-term share price support.
Negative Factors
Competitive Pressure
Partnership VONB was affected by falling China bancassurance and HK IFA VONB amid intensified competition.
Economic Growth
Slower-than-expected Chinese and Asian economic growth, decline in the VNB margin due to rising price competition, and capital market volatility diluting investment yield and capital resources.
Economic Risks
Key downside risks include capital control risks and a worse-than-expected impact from a global minimum tax on the value of new business.

AIA Group (1299) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)

AIA Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAIA Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides life insurance based financial services. The company offers life insurance, accident, and health insurance and savings plans; and employee benefits, credit life, and pension services to corporate clients. It also distributes investment and other financial services products. The company sells its products through a network of agents and partners in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, Thailand, Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia, Australia, Cambodia, Indonesia, Myanmar, New Zealand, the Philippines, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Vietnam, and India. AIA Group Limited was founded in 1919 and is based in Central, Hong Kong.
How the Company Makes MoneyAIA Group makes money primarily through the sale of insurance products and services, which include life insurance, health insurance, and accident insurance. Premiums collected from policyholders form the core revenue stream. The company also generates income through its savings and investment products, which provide clients with financial planning and wealth management solutions. AIA's profitability is further enhanced by its investment income, derived from managing the assets under its control, including premiums collected and reserves. This income is generated through interest, dividends, and capital gains from securities and other financial investments. Strategic partnerships and distribution agreements with banks and other financial institutions also play a significant role in expanding AIA's market reach and boosting its sales channels, further contributing to its revenue base.

AIA Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 14, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: 16.35%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 21, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong financial performance with record growth in key metrics and successful expansion efforts. However, challenges such as interest rate and currency impacts, along with regulatory changes in Korea, pose some concerns. The company's robust technology advancements and strategic positioning in growth markets like China and Hong Kong are significant positives.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Value of New Business
Value of new business (VONB) was up by 18% to a record high of $4.7 billion, indicating strong growth momentum.
Increased Operating Profit After Tax
Operating profit after tax reached a record high, up by 12% per share, showcasing strong earnings growth.
Strong Performance in Key Markets
AIA Hong Kong and AIA China delivered VONB growth of 23% and 20% respectively, highlighting strong market performance.
Successful Geographical Expansion
Approval for four new branches in China adds another 100 million to the addressable market, doubling the target customer base to over 340 million.
AI and Technology Advancements
Significant investments in technology and AI, with over 50 use cases of Generative AI deployed, enhancing customer service and operational efficiency.
Negative Updates
Interest Rate and Currency Challenges
Investment return variances were impacted by lower Chinese and Thai interest rates and currency translation into a stronger US dollar.
Regulatory Challenges in Korea
Changes to regulatory capital requirements in South Korea impacted financial performance.
Margin Pressures in China
Revised economic assumptions and a shift to participating products in China led to some margin pressure despite overall growth.
Company Guidance
In AIA's 2024 annual results call, the company reported strong financial performance with significant growth across key metrics. The value of new business (VONB) increased by 18% to $4.7 billion, while EV equity grew to $71.6 billion, a 9% rise per share after distributing $6.5 billion to shareholders. Operating profit after tax (OPAT) hit a record high with a 12% increase per share, and underlying free surplus generation (UFSG) rose by 10% per share. The Board recommended a 10% increase in the final dividend per share and announced a $1.6 billion share buyback. AIA's premier agency was a major growth driver, contributing 74% to VONB, with recruitment up 18% and agency VONB growth of 16%. The bancassurance channel also showed robust performance, with a 28% increase in VONB to $1.3 billion. AIA's operations in Hong Kong contributed a record $1.8 billion in VONB, up 23%, while AIA China achieved a 20% VONB growth to over $1.2 billion. The company's expansion in Mainland China continued, with approvals for four new branches, adding 100 million to its addressable market. Overall, AIA's financial results reflect the successful execution of its growth strategy, focusing on profitable new business and cash flow generation, while leveraging advanced technology and analytics to enhance efficiency and customer engagement.

AIA Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
AIA Group demonstrates strong profitability with high margins and stable financial stability reflected in a manageable debt-to-equity ratio. However, challenges exist in revenue growth and cash flow generation, which could affect future financial flexibility.
Income Statement
75
Positive
AIA Group displayed strong profitability with a consistent gross profit margin of 100% due to revenue equaling gross profit. The net profit margin improved significantly to 33.6% in 2024 from 18.3% in 2023, indicating enhanced profitability. However, the revenue growth rate was negative at -1.12% in 2024, suggesting a slight revenue decline. The EBIT and EBITDA margins were robust at 38.5% and 43.8%, respectively, in 2024, showing effective cost management and operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
The company maintains a stable balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.34 in 2024, reflecting manageable leverage. Return on equity improved to 16.9% in 2024, indicating better profitability from shareholders' equity. The equity ratio was 13.3%, showing a stable equity position relative to total assets. Overall, the balance sheet exhibits financial stability with moderate leverage levels.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
The cash flow from operations decreased significantly in 2024, impacting the operating cash flow to net income ratio, which dropped to 0.48. Free cash flow growth was negative, with a decline from 2023 to 2024. The free cash flow to net income ratio was 0.44, indicating a lower conversion of net income to free cash flow. These factors suggest potential challenges in cash flow generation despite profitability.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue20.36B20.59B17.76B46.36B50.85B
Gross Profit20.36B19.76B17.76B46.36B50.85B
EBITDA8.92B5.46B8.44B11.07B11.37B
Net Income6.84B3.76B3.33B7.43B5.78B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets305.45B286.32B270.47B339.87B326.12B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments106.39B100.14B8.02B3.91B4.40B
Total Debt13.67B12.16B11.21B9.64B7.87B
Total Liabilities264.64B244.72B11.21B9.64B7.87B
Stockholders Equity40.49B41.11B44.67B60.47B63.20B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow3.03B10.59B9.48B3.27B2.10B
Operating Cash Flow3.26B10.92B9.87B3.91B2.36B
Investing Cash Flow-945.00M-2.14B-817.00M-2.78B-1.22B
Financing Cash Flow-5.69B-6.07B-4.79B-1.66B392.00M

AIA Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price71.60
Price Trends
50DMA
63.34
Positive
100DMA
59.94
Positive
200DMA
58.66
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.97
Negative
RSI
68.16
Neutral
STOCH
88.27
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:1299, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 71.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 68.67, above the 50-day MA of 63.34, and above the 200-day MA of 58.66, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.97 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.27 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HK:1299.

AIA Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (67)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
HK$758.87B14.8516.75%3.69%7.04%88.41%
67
Neutral
$16.66B11.449.71%3.92%11.61%-10.70%
$132.77B6.59
6.91%
$44.85B5.5516.47%4.16%
$137.53B4.3922.83%2.37%
$7.03B5.669.88%0.33%
75
Outperform
HK$178.90B4.8026.08%2.07%-43.77%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
HK:1299
AIA Group
71.60
20.62
40.45%
PIAIF
Ping An Insurance Company of China
6.40
2.14
50.23%
CHPXF
China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co
3.42
1.08
46.15%
CILJF
China Life Insurance Co
2.48
1.07
75.89%
CINSF
China Taiping Insurance Holdings Co
1.50
0.51
51.52%
HK:1336
New China Life Insurance Co., Ltd. Class H
43.75
29.38
204.45%

AIA Group Corporate Events

AIA Group Announces Leadership Transition with Sir Mark Tucker as New Chairman
Jun 6, 2025

AIA Group Limited has announced the retirement of its Independent Non-executive Chairman, Edmund Sze-Wing Tse, effective 30 September 2025. He will be succeeded by Sir Mark Tucker, who previously served as AIA’s Group CEO and President. Sir Mark brings over 40 years of experience in the financial services industry and will assume his new role on 1 October 2025. This leadership transition is expected to strengthen AIA’s position in the insurance industry, leveraging Sir Mark’s international experience and previous contributions to the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1299) stock is a Buy with a HK$100.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AIA Group stock, see the HK:1299 Stock Forecast page.

AIA Group Proposes KPMG as New Auditor for 2026
May 28, 2025

AIA Group Limited has announced a proposed change in its external auditor, recommending KPMG to take over from PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) for the year ending December 31, 2026, pending shareholder approval. This decision follows a comprehensive tender process, underscoring AIA’s commitment to strong corporate governance and transparency in financial reporting. PwC will continue to audit AIA’s financial statements until the end of 2025, and the company has expressed gratitude for PwC’s services over the years.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1299) stock is a Buy with a HK$88.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AIA Group stock, see the HK:1299 Stock Forecast page.

AIA Group Announces AGM Results and Director Retirement
May 23, 2025

AIA Group Limited held its annual general meeting on May 23, 2025, where all proposed resolutions were passed, including the approval of financial statements, declaration of a final dividend, re-election of directors, and reappointment of auditors. Additionally, Ms. Sun Jie retired as an Independent Non-executive Director to focus on other commitments, with the Board expressing gratitude for her contributions.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1299) stock is a Buy with a HK$96.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AIA Group stock, see the HK:1299 Stock Forecast page.

AIA Group Announces Board and Committee Roles
May 23, 2025

AIA Group Limited has announced the composition of its Board of Directors and the roles within its four key committees: Audit, Nomination, Remuneration, and Risk. This announcement underscores the company’s commitment to strong governance and strategic oversight, which are crucial for maintaining its competitive position in the insurance industry and ensuring stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1299) stock is a Buy with a HK$88.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AIA Group stock, see the HK:1299 Stock Forecast page.

AIA Group Reports Strong Growth in First Quarter 2025
Apr 29, 2025

AIA Group Limited reported a 13% increase in the value of new business (VONB) to US$1,497 million for the first quarter of 2025, driven by a diversified and resilient business model. The company’s Premier Agency contributed significantly to this growth, accounting for over 75% of the total VONB. With a strong shareholder capital ratio and a focus on long-term customer relationships, AIA is well-positioned to capture growth opportunities in Asia’s life and health insurance market.

AIA Group Launches $1.6 Billion Share Buy-Back Programme
Apr 11, 2025

AIA Group Limited has announced a US$1.6 billion share buy-back programme as part of its enhanced capital management policy. The programme will be executed by an independent broker under pre-determined parameters, allowing buy-backs during restricted periods with a waiver from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. This move is expected to strengthen AIA’s market position and provide value to its shareholders.

AIA Group Announces 2025 AGM Agenda and Key Resolutions
Apr 8, 2025

AIA Group Limited has announced its upcoming annual general meeting (AGM) scheduled for May 23, 2025, in Hong Kong. Key agenda items include receiving the company’s audited financial statements for 2024, declaring a final dividend, re-electing independent non-executive directors, and re-appointing PricewaterhouseCoopers as the auditor. Additionally, the meeting will consider granting the board general mandates to issue shares, which could impact the company’s capital structure and shareholder value.

AIA Group Announces 2025 Restricted Stock Subscription Units Grant
Apr 2, 2025

AIA Group Limited has announced the grant of restricted stock subscription units (RSSUs) under its agency share purchase plan (ASPP) for the 2025 plan year. This initiative, involving 5,524 participants, aims to foster long-term engagement and a sense of belonging among agents by allowing them to own shares in the company. With an estimated 1,812,056 RSSUs to be granted, the plan aligns with AIA’s strategy to strengthen its market position and enhance stakeholder relationships by encouraging equity ownership among its agency leaders and agents.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 05, 2025