AIA Group Limited (HK:1299)
:1299
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AIA Group
(1299)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
HK$88.00
â–²(7.84% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:04/19/26
The score is primarily supported by solid (but volatile) financial performance, while weaker technical signals (trading below key moving averages with soft momentum) are a notable headwind; valuation is moderate with a supportive dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Pan-Asian Diversified Franchise & Distribution
AIA's pan-Asian footprint and multi-channel distribution (large tied agency force plus bancassurance and partners) provide durable scale and diversification across markets. This reduces single-market concentration, supports consistent new business sources and long-term persistency-driven earnings.
Negative Factors
Rising Leverage Trend
An upward trend in total debt increases financial risk and reduces flexibility, especially for an insurer reliant on investment returns and capital adequacy. Higher leverage can magnify earnings swings and constrain strategic options if underwriting or market conditions deteriorate.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Pan-Asian Diversified Franchise & Distribution
AIA's pan-Asian footprint and multi-channel distribution (large tied agency force plus bancassurance and partners) provide durable scale and diversification across markets. This reduces single-market concentration, supports consistent new business sources and long-term persistency-driven earnings.
Read all positive factors
AIA Group (1299) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$915.68B
Dividend Yield2.16%
Average Volume (3M)26.82M
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.3
Beta (1Y)1.12
Revenue Growth9.97%
EPS Growth-4.43%
CountryHK
Employees23,000
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Life
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.59
Shares Outstanding10,453,007,000
10 Day Avg. Volume22,623,178
30 Day Avg. Volume26,821,457
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-3.58
Price to Book (P/B)2.50
Price to Sales (P/S)3.32
P/FCF Ratio21.06
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
HK$103.49Price Target Upside26.83% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)0.72
Revenue Forecast (FY)HK$24.19B
AIA Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AIA Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides life insurance based financial services. The company offers life insurance, accident, and health insurance and savings plans; and employee benefits, credit life, and pension services to c...
How the Company Makes Money
AIA makes money primarily by underwriting and servicing long-term life and health insurance and related savings/investment products. Its core revenue and earnings drivers include: (1) Premium income: Customers pay regular or single premiums for po...
AIA Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 21, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong overall performance for AIA with significant growth in key markets such as Hong Kong, ASEAN, and India, along with record financial metrics. While there are some challenges, such as regulatory impacts in Malaysia and tax regime effects, the highlights significantly outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Record Growth in Value of New Business
Value of new business (VONB) increased by 14% to $2.8 billion, setting a record high for the company.
Negative Updates
Regulatory Challenges in Malaysia
Malaysia's VONB was impacted by an industry-wide review on health insurance, affecting agency channel growth.
Read all updates
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Growth in Value of New Business
Value of new business (VONB) increased by 14% to $2.8 billion, setting a record high for the company.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During AIA's 2025 Interim Results presentation, key financial metrics showed robust growth. The value of new business (VONB) rose by 14% to $2.8 billion, while underlying free surplus generation per share increased by 10%, and operating profit after tax per share grew by 12%. Operating return on embedded value (ROEV) improved by 290 basis points to 17.8%, and operating return on equity (ROE) reached a record 16.2%. The company returned $3.7 billion to shareholders, and the Board declared a 10% increase in the interim dividend per share. In Hong Kong, VONB was a record $1.1 billion, up 24%, driven by a diversified customer base and strong agency performance, with agency VONB up 35%. AIA China's VONB reached $743 million, with a 15% growth in the second quarter. AIA plans a compound annual VONB growth of 40% over the next five years in new Chinese regions. In ASEAN, VONB grew by 20% to over $1 billion, with strong agency and partnership performances. Meanwhile, Tata AIA Life in India delivered a 38% increase in VONB. AIA's strategic outlook focuses on leveraging its competitive advantages in distribution and product offerings to drive sustainable growth and shareholder value in Asia.AIA Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 32.58B | 20.36B | 20.03B | -24.96B | 46.90B |
| Gross Profit | 32.58B | 28.02B | 19.76B | -18.87B | 46.36B |
| EBITDA | 8.15B | 8.92B | 5.46B | 4.84B | 9.22B |
| Net Income | 6.24B | 6.84B | 3.76B | 3.33B | 7.43B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 345.38B | 305.45B | 286.32B | 270.47B | 339.87B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.61B | 106.39B | 100.14B | 8.02B | 166.08B |
| Total Debt | 20.58B | 13.67B | 12.16B | 11.60B | 10.06B |
| Total Liabilities | 301.78B | 264.64B | 244.72B | 225.32B | 278.94B |
| Stockholders Equity | 43.24B | 40.49B | 41.11B | 44.67B | 60.47B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.14B | 3.03B | 10.59B | 9.48B | 3.27B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.33B | 3.26B | 10.92B | 9.87B | 3.91B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -941.39M | -945.00M | -2.14B | -817.00M | -2.78B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.08B | -5.69B | -6.07B | -4.79B | -1.66B |
AIA Group Technical Analysis
Negative
81.60
Price Trends
85.27
Negative
83.54
Negative
78.35
Positive
Market Momentum
<0.01
Positive
41.68
Neutral
2.96
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:1299, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 81.6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 85.55, below the 50-day MA of 85.27, and above the 200-day MA of 78.35, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 2.96 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:1299.
AIA Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | HK$1.07T | 7.84 | 31.07% | 3.42% | 36.40% | 44.74% | |
77 Outperform | HK$198.61B | 4.89 | 35.23% | 5.24% | 39.01% | 38.60% | |
70 Outperform | HK$78.21B | 0.83 | 29.19% | 1.81% | 11.51% | 250.65% | |
69 Neutral | HK$364.19B | 6.78 | 18.16% | 3.28% | 10.54% | 27.66% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | HK$915.68B | 7.26 | 15.16% | 2.16% | 9.97% | -4.43% | |
64 Neutral | HK$1.14T | 9.14 | 13.93% | 4.25% | >-0.01% | 6.63% |
* Financial Sector Average
HK:1299
AIA Group
87.60
23.76
37.21%
HK:2318
Ping An Insurance Company of China
62.45
17.58
39.18%
HK:2601
China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co
33.20
10.26
44.70%
HK:2628
China Life Insurance Co
29.88
14.89
99.32%
HK:0966
China Taiping Insurance Holdings Co
21.76
10.17
87.67%
HK:1336
New China Life Insurance Co., Ltd. Class H
50.00
20.56
69.82%
AIA Group Corporate Events
AIA Sets 2026 AGM, Proposes Final Dividend and Board Mandates
Apr 15, 2026
AIA Group has called its 2026 annual general meeting for 22 May in Hong Kong, setting out a standard slate of corporate actions for shareholder approval. The agenda includes receiving the 2025 audited financial statements, approving a final divide...
AIA Expands Agent Share Plan With 1.5 Million New Restricted Stock Units
Apr 2, 2026
AIA Group Limited has expanded its agency share purchase plan to further align its agents’ interests with long-term shareholder value, underscoring the strategic role of its agency network in driving growth. The plan allows selected agency l...
AIA Group Tightens Audit Governance With Updated Committee Mandate
Mar 31, 2026
AIA Group Limited has updated and approved new Terms of Reference for its Audit Committee, effective 18 March 2026, setting out definitions, governance roles, and responsibilities within the group’s oversight framework. The document clarifie...
AIA Tightens Nomination Committee Rules to Bolster Governance and Diversity
Mar 31, 2026
AIA Group Limited has updated the terms of reference for its Nomination Committee, refining its composition requirements to mandate at least three board members, a majority of whom must be independent non-executive directors, and specifying that a...
AIA Tightens Governance With Updated Remuneration and Leadership Committee Mandate
Mar 31, 2026
AIA Group Limited has updated and approved new terms of reference for its Remuneration and Leadership Committee, effective 18 March 2026. The document clarifies key governance definitions, including the roles of executive directors, the Group Chie...
AIA Updates Board Risk Committee Mandate to Strengthen Group Risk Oversight
Mar 31, 2026
AIA Group Limited has formalised updated terms of reference for its Board Risk Committee, effective 18 March 2026, defining the committee’s role within the group’s governance structure. The document clarifies key definitions, including...
AIA Sets Up Technology, Operations and Data Board Committee
Mar 31, 2026
AIA Group Limited has established a Technology, Operations and Data Committee as a new specialised board committee to enhance oversight of its technology, operational processes, and data governance across the group. The committee, created by board...
AIA Group Sets Out Board and Committee Line-Up to Underscore Governance Focus
Mar 31, 2026
AIA Group Limited has announced the current composition of its board of directors, led by independent non-executive chairman Sir Mark Edward Tucker and executive director Lee Yuan Siong, the group chief executive and president. The board remains h...
AIA launches US$1.743 billion automatic share buy-back with HKEX waiver
Mar 27, 2026
AIA Group has launched a new US$1.743 billion automatic share buy-back programme, mandated to an independent international broker, which will repurchase the company’s shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange over a period of up to four months....
AIA Grants 2.17 Million Share Options to Align Management with Long-Term Shareholder Value
Mar 26, 2026
AIA Group has granted 2,174,430 share options under its 2020 share option scheme to selected employees, directors, and officers, with each option carrying a subscription price of HK$87, matching the share’s closing price on the grant date. T...
AIA Posts Record 2025 Results, Lifts Dividend and Launches US$1.7bn Buy-back
Mar 18, 2026
AIA Group reported record results for 2025, with value of new business rising 15 per cent to US$5.52 billion and operating profit after tax up 12 per cent per share. Operating return on embedded value reached 15.8 per cent, operating return on equ...
AIA Group Declares Final Dividend of HKD 1.4408 Per Share for 2025
Mar 18, 2026
AIA Group Limited has declared a final ordinary dividend of HKD 1.4408 per share for the financial year ended 31 December 2025, reinforcing its commitment to returning capital to shareholders. The dividend, subject to shareholder approval on 22 Ma...
AIA Overhauls Board Committees and Sets Up Technology Oversight Panel
Mar 18, 2026
AIA Group is reshaping its board governance structure to better align with evolving strategic priorities in Asia’s insurance and financial services sector. The group has renamed its remuneration committee as the Remuneration and Leadership C...
AIA Sets March 2026 Board Committee Meeting on 2025 Results and Dividend
Feb 24, 2026
AIA Group Limited has scheduled a meeting of a board-appointed committee for 19 March 2026 to review and approve the company’s annual results for the year ended 31 December 2025. The committee will also consider whether to recommend a final ...
AIA Group Adds Two Independent Non-Executive Directors to Strengthen Board Governance
Feb 4, 2026
AIA Group Limited has appointed Ms. Shulamite N K Khoo and Mr. Ku Man as Independent Non-executive Directors with effect from 5 February 2026, strengthening the board with seasoned leaders in human resources, financial services and digital banking...
AIA Group Sets Out Board and Committee Line-Up, Emphasising Governance Focus
Feb 4, 2026
AIA Group Limited has announced the current composition of its board of directors, led by independent non-executive chairman Sir Mark Edward Tucker and executive director Lee Yuan Siong, who serves as group chief executive and president, alongside...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.