AIA Group (1299) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $769.30B
• Dividend Yield: 2.42%
• Average Volume (3M): 26.52M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.24
• Revenue Growth: 5.65%
• EPS Growth: 30.47%
• Country: HK
• Employees: 23,000
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Insurance - Life
• EPS (TTM): 2.58
• Shares Outstanding: 10,504,434,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 26,206,894
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 26,517,183
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.18
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 40.25
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 44.43
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 101.40
• 1Y Price Target: $97.56
• Price Target Upside: 34.76% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: HK$84.00 ▲(16.02% Upside)

AIA Group's strong earnings call performance and positive technical indicators are the primary drivers of its stock score. While financial performance is solid, challenges in cash flow and revenue growth slightly temper the outlook. The valuation is reasonable, supporting a positive investment case.

Positive Factors

Growth Strategy

The unique AIA China growth strategy is a key highlight, targeting a 40% VONB CAGR for new geographies, which is seen as an appealing catalyst.

Management Changes

Mark Tucker’s appointment as AIA’s new chairman is seen as positive due to his strong track record and knowledge of the company's operations.

Product Innovation

The newly-launched innovative long-term savings product in Hong Kong has gained strong traction, with expectations for continued sales momentum.

Negative Factors

Earnings Forecast

Revise down FY25/26F earnings by 14%/5% to reflect the fair value changes of participating portfolio.

Economic Assumptions

AIA China reported a 7% year-over-year decline in value of new business in the first quarter, mainly due to changes in economic assumptions amid declining China bond yields.

Regulatory Risks

Key downside risks include capital control risks and a worse-than-expected impact from a global minimum tax on the value of new business.

AIA Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AIA Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides life insurance based financial services. The company offers life insurance, accident, and health insurance and savings plans; and employee benefits, credit life, and pension services to corporate clients. It also distributes investment and other financial services products. The company sells its products through a network of agents and partners in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, Thailand, Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia, Australia, Cambodia, Indonesia, Myanmar, New Zealand, the Philippines, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Vietnam, and India. AIA Group Limited was founded in 1919 and is based in Central, Hong Kong.

How the Company Makes Money

AIA Group generates revenue primarily through the sale of insurance products, including life, health, and accident insurance policies. The company earns premiums from policyholders, which represent a significant portion of its income. In addition to these premiums, AIA Group also generates revenue through investment income, earned from managing the funds collected from policyholders. The company invests these funds in a diversified portfolio consisting of equities, bonds, and other financial instruments. AIA Group's strategic partnerships and digital initiatives enhance its distribution capabilities, allowing it to reach a wider customer base and create additional revenue streams. These partnerships often involve banks and other financial institutions, enabling cross-selling opportunities and expanding market penetration.

AIA Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

AIA Group shows strong profitability with high profit margins and stable leverage. However, challenges in revenue growth and cash flow generation could impact future financial flexibility.

Income Statement

AIA Group displayed strong profitability with a consistent gross profit margin of 100% due to revenue equaling gross profit. The net profit margin improved significantly to 33.6% in 2024 from 18.3% in 2023, indicating enhanced profitability. However, the revenue growth rate was negative at -1.12% in 2024, suggesting a slight revenue decline. The EBIT and EBITDA margins were robust at 38.5% and 43.8%, respectively, in 2024, showing effective cost management and operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a stable balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.34 in 2024, reflecting manageable leverage. Return on equity improved to 16.9% in 2024, indicating better profitability from shareholders' equity. The equity ratio was 13.3%, showing a stable equity position relative to total assets. Overall, the balance sheet exhibits financial stability with moderate leverage levels.

Cash Flow

The cash flow from operations decreased significantly in 2024, impacting the operating cash flow to net income ratio, which dropped to 0.48. Free cash flow growth was negative, with a decline from 2023 to 2024. The free cash flow to net income ratio was 0.44, indicating a lower conversion of net income to free cash flow. These factors suggest potential challenges in cash flow generation despite profitability.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	20.36B	19.76B	17.76B	46.36B	50.85B
Gross Profit	20.36B	27.25B	17.76B	46.36B	50.85B
EBITDA	8.92B	5.46B	4.84B	9.22B	11.37B
Net Income	6.84B	3.76B	3.33B	7.43B	5.78B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	305.45B	286.32B	270.47B	339.87B	326.12B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	106.39B	100.14B	8.02B	3.91B	4.40B
Total Debt	13.67B	12.16B	11.60B	10.06B	7.87B
Total Liabilities	264.64B	244.72B	225.32B	278.94B	262.45B
Stockholders Equity	40.49B	41.11B	44.67B	60.47B	63.20B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	3.03B	10.59B	9.48B	3.27B	2.10B
Operating Cash Flow	3.26B	10.92B	9.87B	3.91B	2.36B
Investing Cash Flow	-945.00M	-2.14B	-817.00M	-2.78B	-1.22B
Financing Cash Flow	-5.69B	-6.07B	-4.79B	-1.66B	392.00M

AIA Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 72.40
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:1299, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 72.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 73.87, above the 50-day MA of 71.53, and above the 200-day MA of 61.12, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.61 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.60 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for HK:1299.

AIA Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
1299	76 Outperform	$769.30B	17.08	15.16%	2.42%	5.65%	30.47%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$17.82B	11.90	10.30%	3.72%	9.69%	0.80%
PIAIF	―	$145.39B	7.70		4.82%	―	―
CHPXF	―	$52.20B	7.74	16.47%	2.93%	―	―
CILJF	―	$147.88B	5.54	22.83%	2.93%	―	―
CINSF	―	$8.75B	5.66	9.88%	2.97%	―	―
1336	75 Outperform	HK$200.84B	5.50	26.08%	5.64%	20.69%	186.78%

AIA Group Corporate Events

AIA Group to Review Interim Results and Dividend

AIA Group Limited has announced that a committee appointed by its board of directors will meet on August 21, 2025, to consider and approve the company’s interim results for the first half of the year ending June 30, 2025. The meeting will also discuss the potential payment of an interim dividend, reflecting the company’s ongoing financial performance and commitment to shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1299) stock is a Buy with a HK$88.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AIA Group stock, see the HK:1299 Stock Forecast page.

AIA Group Announces Forfeiture of Unclaimed 2018 Dividends

AIA Group Limited has announced the forfeiture of unclaimed final and special dividends for the year 2018, as per Article 142 of its Articles of Association. Shareholders have until July 31, 2025, to claim their dividends, after which unclaimed amounts will revert to the company. This move underscores the company’s adherence to its governance policies and may impact shareholders who have not yet claimed their dividends.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1299) stock is a Buy with a HK$88.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AIA Group stock, see the HK:1299 Stock Forecast page.

AIA Group Announces Leadership Transition with Sir Mark Tucker as New Chairman

AIA Group Limited has announced the retirement of its Independent Non-executive Chairman, Edmund Sze-Wing Tse, effective 30 September 2025. He will be succeeded by Sir Mark Tucker, who previously served as AIA’s Group CEO and President. Sir Mark brings over 40 years of experience in the financial services industry and will assume his new role on 1 October 2025. This leadership transition is expected to strengthen AIA’s position in the insurance industry, leveraging Sir Mark’s international experience and previous contributions to the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1299) stock is a Buy with a HK$100.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AIA Group stock, see the HK:1299 Stock Forecast page.

AIA Group Proposes KPMG as New Auditor for 2026

AIA Group Limited has announced a proposed change in its external auditor, recommending KPMG to take over from PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) for the year ending December 31, 2026, pending shareholder approval. This decision follows a comprehensive tender process, underscoring AIA’s commitment to strong corporate governance and transparency in financial reporting. PwC will continue to audit AIA’s financial statements until the end of 2025, and the company has expressed gratitude for PwC’s services over the years.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1299) stock is a Buy with a HK$88.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AIA Group stock, see the HK:1299 Stock Forecast page.

AIA Group Announces AGM Results and Director Retirement

AIA Group Limited held its annual general meeting on May 23, 2025, where all proposed resolutions were passed, including the approval of financial statements, declaration of a final dividend, re-election of directors, and reappointment of auditors. Additionally, Ms. Sun Jie retired as an Independent Non-executive Director to focus on other commitments, with the Board expressing gratitude for her contributions.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1299) stock is a Buy with a HK$96.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AIA Group stock, see the HK:1299 Stock Forecast page.

AIA Group Announces Board and Committee Roles

AIA Group Limited has announced the composition of its Board of Directors and the roles within its four key committees: Audit, Nomination, Remuneration, and Risk. This announcement underscores the company’s commitment to strong governance and strategic oversight, which are crucial for maintaining its competitive position in the insurance industry and ensuring stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1299) stock is a Buy with a HK$88.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AIA Group stock, see the HK:1299 Stock Forecast page.