AIA Group (1299) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $720.23B
• Dividend Yield: 3.85%
• Average Volume (3M): 41.17M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.23
• Revenue Growth: 7.04%
• EPS Growth: 88.41%
• Country: HK
• Employees: 23,000
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 75
• Industry: Insurance - Life
• EPS (TTM): 2.51
• Shares Outstanding: 10,629,993,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 69,639,869
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 41,169,891
• PEG Ratio: 0.29
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.13
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 25.84
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.12
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.09
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.00
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.58
• 1Y Price Target: $97.33
• Price Target Upside: 43.87% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: HK$75.00 ▲(10.86%Upside)

The overall stock score of 78 reflects AIA Group's strong financial performance and positive earnings call, which highlight record growth and strategic expansions. Technical analysis supports a bullish trend. However, challenges in cash flow and revenue growth, along with fair valuation, slightly moderate the score.

Positive Factors

Leadership

Mark Tucker's appointment as AIA's new chairman is seen as positive due to his strong track record and knowledge of the company's operations.

Market Position

AIA is considered the frontrunner of the AI race among regional peers, as it is ahead in areas including cloud adoption, digital submission and straight-through processing, AI-enabled processing, digital lead generation and conversion, and has demonstrated efficiency improvements with high customer satisfaction.

Shareholder Returns

The recently announced US$1.6bn share buyback programme is expected to provide near-term share price support.

Negative Factors

China Market Performance

AIA China's value of new business (VONB) declined 7% year-over-year due to economic assumption changes.

Economic Growth

Slower-than-expected Chinese and Asian economic growth, decline in the VNB margin due to rising price competition, and capital market volatility diluting investment yield and capital resources.

Economic Risks

Key downside risks include capital control risks and a worse-than-expected impact from a global minimum tax on the value of new business.

AIA Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AIA Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides life insurance based financial services. The company offers life insurance, accident, and health insurance and savings plans; and employee benefits, credit life, and pension services to corporate clients. It also distributes investment and other financial services products. The company sells its products through a network of agents and partners in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, Thailand, Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia, Australia, Cambodia, Indonesia, Myanmar, New Zealand, the Philippines, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Vietnam, and India. AIA Group Limited was founded in 1919 and is based in Central, Hong Kong.

How the Company Makes Money

AIA Group makes money primarily through the sale of insurance products and services, which include life insurance, health insurance, and accident insurance. Premiums collected from policyholders form the core revenue stream. The company also generates income through its savings and investment products, which provide clients with financial planning and wealth management solutions. AIA's profitability is further enhanced by its investment income, derived from managing the assets under its control, including premiums collected and reserves. This income is generated through interest, dividends, and capital gains from securities and other financial investments. Strategic partnerships and distribution agreements with banks and other financial institutions also play a significant role in expanding AIA's market reach and boosting its sales channels, further contributing to its revenue base.

AIA Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

AIA Group demonstrates strong profitability with high margins and stable financial stability reflected in a manageable debt-to-equity ratio. However, challenges exist in revenue growth and cash flow generation, which could affect future financial flexibility.

Income Statement

AIA Group displayed strong profitability with a consistent gross profit margin of 100% due to revenue equaling gross profit. The net profit margin improved significantly to 33.6% in 2024 from 18.3% in 2023, indicating enhanced profitability. However, the revenue growth rate was negative at -1.12% in 2024, suggesting a slight revenue decline. The EBIT and EBITDA margins were robust at 38.5% and 43.8%, respectively, in 2024, showing effective cost management and operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a stable balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.34 in 2024, reflecting manageable leverage. Return on equity improved to 16.9% in 2024, indicating better profitability from shareholders' equity. The equity ratio was 13.3%, showing a stable equity position relative to total assets. Overall, the balance sheet exhibits financial stability with moderate leverage levels.

Cash Flow

The cash flow from operations decreased significantly in 2024, impacting the operating cash flow to net income ratio, which dropped to 0.48. Free cash flow growth was negative, with a decline from 2023 to 2024. The free cash flow to net income ratio was 0.44, indicating a lower conversion of net income to free cash flow. These factors suggest potential challenges in cash flow generation despite profitability.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	20.36B	20.59B	17.76B	46.36B	50.85B
Gross Profit	20.36B	19.76B	17.76B	46.36B	50.85B
EBITDA	8.92B	5.46B	8.44B	11.07B	11.37B
Net Income	6.84B	3.76B	3.33B	7.43B	5.78B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	305.45B	286.32B	270.47B	339.87B	326.12B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	106.39B	100.14B	8.02B	3.91B	4.40B
Total Debt	13.67B	12.16B	11.21B	9.64B	7.87B
Total Liabilities	264.64B	244.72B	11.21B	9.64B	7.87B
Stockholders Equity	40.49B	41.11B	44.67B	60.47B	63.20B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	3.03B	10.59B	9.48B	3.27B	2.10B
Operating Cash Flow	3.26B	10.92B	9.87B	3.91B	2.36B
Investing Cash Flow	-945.00M	-2.14B	-817.00M	-2.78B	-1.22B
Financing Cash Flow	-5.69B	-6.07B	-4.79B	-1.66B	392.00M

AIA Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 67.65
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:1299, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 67.65 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 69.38, above the 50-day MA of 66.89, and above the 200-day MA of 59.61, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.47 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.82 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for HK:1299.

AIA Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
1299	78 Outperform	$720.23B	14.03	16.75%	3.85%	7.04%	88.41%
Sector *	58 Neutral	HK$91.09B	5.21	-3.21%	5.20%	7.36%	-55.21%
PIAIF	―	$135.02B	6.90		6.80%	―	―
CHPXF	―	$46.08B	5.80	16.47%	4.13%	―	―
CILJF	―	$132.96B	4.18	22.83%	2.63%	―	―
CINSF	―	$7.11B	5.66	9.88%	2.97%	―	―
1336	75 Outperform	HK$183.32B	4.70	26.08%	5.05%	-43.77%	―

AIA Group Corporate Events

AIA Group Announces Forfeiture of Unclaimed 2018 Dividends

AIA Group Limited has announced the forfeiture of unclaimed final and special dividends for the year 2018, as per Article 142 of its Articles of Association. Shareholders have until July 31, 2025, to claim their dividends, after which unclaimed amounts will revert to the company. This move underscores the company’s adherence to its governance policies and may impact shareholders who have not yet claimed their dividends.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1299) stock is a Buy with a HK$88.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AIA Group stock, see the HK:1299 Stock Forecast page.

AIA Group Announces Leadership Transition with Sir Mark Tucker as New Chairman

AIA Group Limited has announced the retirement of its Independent Non-executive Chairman, Edmund Sze-Wing Tse, effective 30 September 2025. He will be succeeded by Sir Mark Tucker, who previously served as AIA’s Group CEO and President. Sir Mark brings over 40 years of experience in the financial services industry and will assume his new role on 1 October 2025. This leadership transition is expected to strengthen AIA’s position in the insurance industry, leveraging Sir Mark’s international experience and previous contributions to the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1299) stock is a Buy with a HK$100.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AIA Group stock, see the HK:1299 Stock Forecast page.

AIA Group Proposes KPMG as New Auditor for 2026

AIA Group Limited has announced a proposed change in its external auditor, recommending KPMG to take over from PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) for the year ending December 31, 2026, pending shareholder approval. This decision follows a comprehensive tender process, underscoring AIA’s commitment to strong corporate governance and transparency in financial reporting. PwC will continue to audit AIA’s financial statements until the end of 2025, and the company has expressed gratitude for PwC’s services over the years.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1299) stock is a Buy with a HK$88.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AIA Group stock, see the HK:1299 Stock Forecast page.

AIA Group Announces AGM Results and Director Retirement

AIA Group Limited held its annual general meeting on May 23, 2025, where all proposed resolutions were passed, including the approval of financial statements, declaration of a final dividend, re-election of directors, and reappointment of auditors. Additionally, Ms. Sun Jie retired as an Independent Non-executive Director to focus on other commitments, with the Board expressing gratitude for her contributions.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1299) stock is a Buy with a HK$96.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AIA Group stock, see the HK:1299 Stock Forecast page.

AIA Group Announces Board and Committee Roles

AIA Group Limited has announced the composition of its Board of Directors and the roles within its four key committees: Audit, Nomination, Remuneration, and Risk. This announcement underscores the company’s commitment to strong governance and strategic oversight, which are crucial for maintaining its competitive position in the insurance industry and ensuring stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1299) stock is a Buy with a HK$88.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AIA Group stock, see the HK:1299 Stock Forecast page.

AIA Group Reports Strong Growth in First Quarter 2025

AIA Group Limited reported a 13% increase in the value of new business (VONB) to US$1,497 million for the first quarter of 2025, driven by a diversified and resilient business model. The company’s Premier Agency contributed significantly to this growth, accounting for over 75% of the total VONB. With a strong shareholder capital ratio and a focus on long-term customer relationships, AIA is well-positioned to capture growth opportunities in Asia’s life and health insurance market.