China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. (1117) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: HK$9.79B
• Dividend Yield: 0.96%
• Average Volume (3M): 26.19M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.69
• Revenue Growth: -3.39%
• EPS Growth: -868.11%
• Country: HK
• Employees: 9,007
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 55
• Industry: Agricultural Farm Products
• EPS (TTM): -0.16
• Shares Outstanding: 7,915,662,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 37,175,783
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 26,186,633
• PEG Ratio: 0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.90
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -6.84
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: HK$1.45
• Price Target Upside: 15.08% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

• Rating: 59 Neutral
• Price Target: HK$1.50 ▲(19.05%Upside)

The overall stock score is influenced significantly by financial performance, with profitability and liquidity challenges posing major risks. Technical analysis highlights a strong bullish trend, though caution is advised due to overbought signals. Valuation concerns arise from a negative P/E ratio, reflecting recent financial struggles.

Positive Factors

Business Strategy

China Modern Dairy is aiming for a 13% volume growth in 2025, driven by an increase in the percentage of milkable cows and higher average milk yield.

Cost Efficiency

The company expects a continued expansion in margins supported by lower feed costs and efficiency gains.

Market Outlook

Market balance is improving as supply declines and demand for raw milk rises, potentially leading to price recovery.

Negative Factors

Financial Costs

FY25 earnings are reduced by 14% due to higher finance costs from increased bank loans.

Financial Performance

China Modern Dairy issued a profit warning with a significant net loss, driven by higher-than-expected fair value adjustments due to lower raw milk prices and accelerated culling.

Risk Factors

Key risks include reliance on China Mengniu, outbreak of diseases, food safety issues, and raw milk price and raw material cost fluctuations.

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. is a leading dairy farming company in China, primarily engaged in the production and sale of raw milk. The company operates large-scale dairy farms and is focused on providing high-quality milk products. With a strong emphasis on modern agricultural practices and sustainability, China Modern Dairy Holdings plays a crucial role in the dairy supply chain in China.

How the Company Makes Money

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. generates revenue primarily through the sale of raw milk, which it produces on its large-scale dairy farms. The company supplies its high-quality raw milk to major dairy product manufacturers, including its strategic partner China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited. This partnership is significant as it provides a stable demand for its milk products. Additionally, the company's revenue model is supported by its commitment to modern farming techniques, which enhance production efficiency and milk yield, further driving profitability. The focus on sustainability and quality assurance also plays a role in maintaining its competitive position and ensuring consistent revenue streams.

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. shows operational efficiency with stable EBIT and EBITDA margins but faces significant profitability challenges due to a negative net margin and shrinking revenue. Increased leverage and reduced equity on the balance sheet pose financial stability concerns. Cash flow issues amplify liquidity risks.

Income Statement

The income statement shows fluctuating revenues, with a recent decline from 2023 to 2024, resulting in a negative growth rate of -1.51%. Gross profit margin in 2024 was 26.05%, indicating decent operational efficiency, though net profit margin turned negative at -10.69% due to a significant net loss. EBIT and EBITDA margins were 16.93% and 19.65% respectively, reflecting stable operational performance before interest and taxes but highlighting concerns about net profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates a strong asset base with a total of HKD 33.94 billion. However, the debt-to-equity ratio increased to 1.77 in 2024, suggesting increased leverage. Stockholders' equity decreased, leading to a lower equity ratio of 28.08%, down from previous years, which could pose financial risks. The return on equity has drastically fallen due to negative net income.

Cash Flow

Cash flows are under stress with zero reported operating and free cash flows in 2024. There is a significant drop from the previous year's operating cash flow of HKD 5.45 billion, indicating potential liquidity issues. Free cash flow growth rate is negative, signaling cash generation challenges.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	13.25B	13.46B	12.30B	7.08B	6.02B
Gross Profit	3.45B	3.13B	3.27B	2.55B	2.46B
EBITDA	2.60B	1.19B	1.40B	1.58B	2.15B
Net Income	-1.42B	175.16M	562.50M	1.02B	770.01M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	33.94B	31.39B	28.82B	23.67B	15.57B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.06B	1.96B	2.14B	1.89B	1.17B
Total Debt	16.90B	13.52B	13.54B	9.06B	5.86B
Total Liabilities	22.82B	19.55B	17.18B	12.56B	7.53B
Stockholders Equity	9.53B	11.20B	11.26B	10.86B	7.90B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-2.02B	1.12B	-2.48B	-125.57M	454.39M
Operating Cash Flow	2.40B	5.45B	1.58B	1.87B	1.94B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.97B	-3.88B	-3.99B	-2.87B	-765.73M
Financing Cash Flow	2.00B	-1.63B	2.59B	1.64B	-963.99M

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1.26
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:1117, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.15, above the 50-day MA of 1.10, and above the 200-day MA of 0.99, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.15 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HK:1117.

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
1431	72 Outperform	HK$1.55B	4.81	6.05%	―	13.36%	―
9858	63 Neutral	HK$14.17B	―	-5.98%	―	5.49%	37.55%
Sector *	60 Neutral	HK$20.78B	12.31	0.81%	4.16%	2.72%	-47.45%
1117	59 Neutral	HK$9.79B	―	-13.67%	0.96%	-3.39%	-868.11%
1432	56 Neutral	€2.60B	―	-1.61%	0.75%	-9.24%	-177.19%

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. Corporate Events

China Modern Dairy to Issue $350 Million Sustainability Bonds

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. has announced the proposed issuance of $350 million in sustainability bonds due in 2030, with an interest rate of 4.875%. The proceeds from these bonds are intended for refinancing purposes. The bonds will be offered outside the United States and are subject to certain conditions, including listing on the Stock Exchange for professional investors only. This move is part of the company’s strategy to enhance its financial structure while promoting sustainability, although the completion of the bond issuance is not guaranteed.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1117) stock is a Buy with a HK$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. stock, see the HK:1117 Stock Forecast page.

China Modern Dairy Issues Profit Warning Amid Market Challenges

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. has issued a profit warning, indicating an expected significant net loss for the first half of 2025 due to a decrease in raw milk prices and a loss in the revaluation of dairy cows. Despite these challenges, the company has managed to control operational costs and increase raw milk sales volume. The management remains optimistic about future profitability as market conditions stabilize and demand for dairy products recovers.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1117) stock is a Buy with a HK$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. stock, see the HK:1117 Stock Forecast page.

China Modern Dairy Announces Successful AGM Resolutions

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. announced that all resolutions were successfully passed at its Annual General Meeting held on June 12, 2025. Key resolutions included the approval of the audited financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2024, the declaration of a final dividend, and the re-election of several directors. The meeting saw full participation from shareholders, with no abstentions, indicating strong support for the company’s strategic direction and governance.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1117) stock is a Buy with a HK$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. stock, see the HK:1117 Stock Forecast page.

China Modern Dairy Announces Final Dividend for 2024

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. has announced a final cash dividend of RMB 0.0122 per share for the financial year ending December 31, 2024. This dividend will be paid in Hong Kong dollars at an exchange rate of RMB 1 to HKD 1.0931, with a payment date set for June 27, 2025. This announcement reflects the company’s financial performance and commitment to returning value to its shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1117) stock is a Buy with a HK$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. stock, see the HK:1117 Stock Forecast page.

China Modern Dairy Announces 2025 Annual General Meeting

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. has announced its upcoming annual general meeting scheduled for June 12, 2025, in Hong Kong. The meeting will address several key agenda items, including the consideration of audited financial statements for 2024, approval of a final dividend, re-election of directors, and the appointment of KPMG as auditors. Additionally, a general mandate will be discussed to allow the directors to issue additional shares, which could impact the company’s market operations and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1117) stock is a Buy with a HK$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. stock, see the HK:1117 Stock Forecast page.

China Modern Dairy Proposes Auditor Change to KPMG

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. has announced a proposed change of auditors, with Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu set to retire after more than a decade of service. The company plans to appoint KPMG as the new auditors, pending shareholder approval at the upcoming annual general meeting. This change is part of the company’s commitment to good corporate governance practices, and there are no disagreements or outstanding matters between the company and Deloitte.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1117) stock is a Buy with a HK$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. stock, see the HK:1117 Stock Forecast page.

China Modern Dairy Releases Q1 2025 Financials for Modern Farming

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. announced the unaudited consolidated financial information for its non-wholly owned subsidiary, Modern Farming (Group) Co., Ltd., for the first quarter of 2025. The release follows the issuance of RMB300 million in medium-term notes by Modern Farming. The financial data, prepared according to PRC Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, is available on the Shanghai Clearing House and China Money Network websites. The company advises caution to shareholders and potential investors, as the information is limited to Modern Farming and may not reflect the full operational status of the entire company.