China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. (1117) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: HK$9.47B
• Dividend Yield: 1.1%
• Average Volume (3M): 15.73M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.71
• Revenue Growth: -2.69%
• EPS Growth: -695.87%
• Country: HK
• Employees: 9,007
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Agricultural Farm Products
• EPS (TTM): -0.13
• Shares Outstanding: 7,915,662,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 12,622,842
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 15,732,775
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.71
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.51
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.35
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: HK$1.56
• Price Target Upside: 28.93% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

• Rating: 46 Neutral
• Price Target: HK$1.00 ▼(-17.36% Downside)

The overall stock score is primarily influenced by financial performance challenges, including negative profitability and liquidity risks. Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, while valuation metrics highlight poor investor sentiment due to negative earnings. The absence of earnings call data and corporate events further limits positive outlook.

Positive Factors

Strategic Partnership

The strategic partnership with China Mengniu Dairy ensures a consistent demand for raw milk, supporting revenue stability and reducing market volatility.

Operational Efficiency

Stable EBIT and EBITDA margins indicate efficient operations, which can help the company maintain profitability even in challenging market conditions.

Sustainability Focus

Focus on modern farming and sustainability improves production efficiency and quality, strengthening the company's competitive position in the dairy industry.

Negative Factors

Rising Debt Levels

Increased leverage can strain financial flexibility, posing risks to long-term stability and potentially impacting the company's ability to invest in growth.

Negative Cash Flow

Negative cash flow indicates liquidity issues, which can hinder the company's ability to fund operations and growth initiatives, impacting long-term viability.

Declining Revenue

Declining revenue suggests challenges in market demand or competition, which could affect the company's ability to sustain growth and profitability over time.

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd., an investment holding company, produces and sells milk in Mainland China. It produces and sells raw milk to customers for processing into dairy products; and liquid milk products. The company is also involved in breeding dairy cows; selling feeds; and producing fodder. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 33 farms. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Maanshan, the People's Republic of China. China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. is a subsidiary of China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited.

How the Company Makes Money

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. generates revenue primarily through the sale of raw milk, which it produces on its large-scale dairy farms. The company supplies its high-quality raw milk to major dairy product manufacturers, including its strategic partner China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited. This partnership is significant as it provides a stable demand for its milk products. Additionally, the company's revenue model is supported by its commitment to modern farming techniques, which enhance production efficiency and milk yield, further driving profitability. The focus on sustainability and quality assurance also plays a role in maintaining its competitive position and ensuring consistent revenue streams.

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. shows operational efficiency with stable EBIT and EBITDA margins. However, it faces significant profitability challenges with a negative net margin and shrinking revenue. The balance sheet reveals increased leverage and reduced equity, posing financial stability concerns. Cash flow issues amplify liquidity risks, requiring strategic financial management.

Income Statement

The income statement shows fluctuating revenues, with a recent decline from 2023 to 2024, resulting in a negative growth rate of -1.51%. Gross profit margin in 2024 was 26.05%, indicating decent operational efficiency, though net profit margin turned negative at -10.69% due to a significant net loss. EBIT and EBITDA margins were 16.93% and 19.65% respectively, reflecting stable operational performance before interest and taxes but highlighting concerns about net profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates a strong asset base with a total of HKD 33.94 billion. However, the debt-to-equity ratio increased to 1.77 in 2024, suggesting increased leverage. Stockholders' equity decreased, leading to a lower equity ratio of 28.08%, down from previous years, which could pose financial risks. The return on equity has drastically fallen due to negative net income.

Cash Flow

Cash flows are under stress with zero reported operating and free cash flows in 2024. There is a significant drop from the previous year's operating cash flow of HKD 5.45 billion, indicating potential liquidity issues. Free cash flow growth rate is negative, signaling cash generation challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	12.91B	13.25B	13.46B	12.30B	7.08B	6.02B
Gross Profit	3.38B	3.45B	3.13B	3.27B	2.55B	2.46B
EBITDA	2.57B	2.60B	1.19B	1.40B	1.58B	2.15B
Net Income	-2.10B	-1.42B	175.16M	562.50M	1.02B	770.01M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	33.39B	33.94B	31.39B	28.82B	23.67B	15.57B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.90B	3.06B	1.96B	2.14B	1.89B	1.17B
Total Debt	19.28B	16.90B	13.52B	13.54B	9.06B	5.86B
Total Liabilities	23.33B	22.82B	19.55B	17.18B	12.56B	7.53B
Stockholders Equity	8.53B	9.53B	11.20B	11.26B	10.86B	7.90B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-1.94B	-2.02B	1.12B	-2.48B	-125.57M	454.39M
Operating Cash Flow	2.50B	2.40B	5.45B	1.58B	1.87B	1.94B
Investing Cash Flow	-4.13B	-3.97B	-3.88B	-3.99B	-2.87B	-765.73M
Financing Cash Flow	1.51B	2.00B	-1.63B	2.59B	1.64B	-963.99M

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1.21
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:1117, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.21 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.22, below the 50-day MA of 1.27, and above the 200-day MA of 1.11, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HK:1117.

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
1431	61 Neutral	HK$1.24B	4.02	5.66%	―	13.78%	432.26%
9858	51 Neutral	HK$11.91B	―	-5.81%	―	3.07%	-64.23%
1432	50 Neutral	HK$2.68B	80.00	0.82%	0.72%	-7.11%	―
1117	46 Neutral	HK$9.47B	―	-21.76%	1.10%	-2.69%	-695.87%

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. Corporate Events

China Modern Dairy Announces Board Restructuring

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. has announced changes to its board of directors, effective October 1, 2025. The board now comprises executive, non-executive, and independent non-executive directors, with Mr. SUN Yugang as CEO and Mr. CHEN Yiyi as Chairman. The board has also established five committees to oversee various aspects of the company’s operations, including audit, nomination, remuneration, strategy and development, and sustainability. These changes are expected to enhance the company’s governance and strategic direction, potentially impacting its market position and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1117) stock is a Hold with a HK$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. stock, see the HK:1117 Stock Forecast page.

China Modern Dairy Announces Board and Committee Changes

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. has announced significant changes to its board of directors and committees, effective October 1, 2025. Mr. Wen Yongping will join as a non-executive director and chairman of the Sustainability Committee, while Mr. Li Shengli and Mr. Lee Kong Wai, Conway, will become members of the Nomination Committee. These changes are expected to enhance the company’s governance and strategic direction, particularly in sustainability, as Mr. Wen brings extensive experience from his tenure at China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1117) stock is a Hold with a HK$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. stock, see the HK:1117 Stock Forecast page.

China Modern Dairy Announces Leadership Changes

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. announced significant changes in its board of directors, effective September 1, 2025. Mr. Zhao Jiejun will resign from his roles due to personal health reasons, and Mr. Chen Yiyi will take over as the new chairman of the Board and other committees. These leadership changes are expected to influence the company’s strategic direction and governance.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1117) stock is a Hold with a HK$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. stock, see the HK:1117 Stock Forecast page.

China Modern Dairy Announces New Board Composition and Governance Structure

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. has announced the composition of its board of directors, effective from September 1, 2025. The board includes executive, non-executive, and independent non-executive directors, with Mr. SUN Yugang serving as CEO and Mr. CHEN Yiyi as Chairman. The board has also established five committees, each with designated chairpersons and members, to oversee various aspects of the company’s operations, reflecting a structured governance approach to enhance strategic development and sustainability.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1117) stock is a Hold with a HK$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. stock, see the HK:1117 Stock Forecast page.

China Modern Dairy Updates Nomination Committee Terms

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. has revised the terms of reference for its Nomination Committee, which was originally established in 2012. The updated terms, approved by the Board, aim to ensure a diverse and independent committee structure, enhancing governance and decision-making processes within the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1117) stock is a Hold with a HK$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. stock, see the HK:1117 Stock Forecast page.

China Modern Dairy Reports Strong Growth and Sustainability Achievements in H1 2025

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. reported strong interim results for the first half of 2025, with significant achievements in product quality, operating cash flow, and raw milk business growth. The company recorded a 23.3% increase in net cash from operating activities, reflecting enhanced core competitiveness. The total raw milk yield reached a record high of 1.661 million tons, a 14.6% year-on-year increase. The company also received an upgraded ESG rating from MSCI Inc. and was included in the S&P Global Sustainability Yearbook, underscoring its commitment to sustainable development.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1117) stock is a Hold with a HK$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. stock, see the HK:1117 Stock Forecast page.

China Modern Dairy Announces Upcoming Board Meeting for Financial Review

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. has announced a board meeting scheduled for August 26, 2025, to approve the unaudited consolidated financial statements for the first half of the year and consider an interim dividend. This meeting is significant as it will provide insights into the company’s financial health and potential shareholder returns, impacting its market positioning and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1117) stock is a Buy with a HK$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. stock, see the HK:1117 Stock Forecast page.