China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. (HK:1117)
:1117
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China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd.
(1117)
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Rating:43Neutral
Price Target:
HK$1.00
▼(-28.06% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/27/26
The score is primarily pressured by deteriorating financial performance (margin collapse, ongoing losses, higher leverage, and negative free cash flow). Technicals also weigh on the score with a broadly bearish trend despite oversold readings. Valuation provides only a modest offset due to a negative P/E and a low dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Scale of operations
Large-scale dairy farming is a durable business model: substantial herd and farm scale support stable raw‑milk supply contracts, lower per‑unit costs, and higher barriers to entry versus small farms. Scale helps sustain revenue volume and long-term customer relationships even through cyclical periods.
Negative Factors
Margin collapse & recurring losses
A sharp, sustained decline in gross margin and recurring operating losses materially weakens reinvestment capacity and return generation. Structural cost pressures or persistent price weakness would make it hard to restore profitability without operational redesign, higher selling prices, or lower input costs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Scale of operations
Large-scale dairy farming is a durable business model: substantial herd and farm scale support stable raw‑milk supply contracts, lower per‑unit costs, and higher barriers to entry versus small farms. Scale helps sustain revenue volume and long-term customer relationships even through cyclical periods.
Read all positive factors
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. (1117) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$10.34B
Dividend Yield0.86%
Average Volume (3M)15.73M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.70
Revenue Growth-4.92%
EPS Growth20.30%
CountryHK
Employees9,007
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryAgricultural Farm Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.03
Shares Outstanding7,915,662,000
10 Day Avg. Volume12,622,842
30 Day Avg. Volume15,732,775
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.47
Price to Book (P/B)1.37
Price to Sales (P/S)0.93
P/FCF Ratio-6.93
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
HK$1.85Price Target Upside33.27% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)0.06
Revenue Forecast (FY)HK$13.63B
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd., an investment holding company, produces and sells milk in Mainland China. It produces and sells raw milk to customers for processing into dairy products; and liquid milk products. The company is also involved in b...
How the Company Makes Money
The company primarily makes money by producing and selling raw milk generated from its dairy farms. Revenue is driven by (1) the volume of raw milk produced (linked to herd size, milk yield per cow, and farm productivity) and (2) realized selling ...
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
35
Negative
Cash Flow
40
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 12.25B | 13.25B | 13.46B | 12.30B | 7.08B |
| Gross Profit | 483.28M | 3.45B | 3.13B | 3.27B | 2.55B |
| EBITDA | -187.38M | 2.60B | 1.19B | 1.40B | 1.58B |
| Net Income | -1.10B | -1.42B | 175.16M | 562.50M | 1.02B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 36.59B | 33.94B | 31.39B | 28.82B | 23.67B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.59B | 3.06B | 1.96B | 2.14B | 1.89B |
| Total Debt | 21.59B | 16.90B | 13.52B | 13.54B | 9.06B |
| Total Liabilities | 26.77B | 22.82B | 19.55B | 17.18B | 12.56B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.30B | 9.53B | 11.20B | 11.26B | 10.86B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.64B | -2.02B | 1.12B | -2.48B | -125.57M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.04B | 2.40B | 5.45B | 1.58B | 1.87B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.89B | -3.97B | -3.88B | -3.99B | -2.87B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 4.42B | 2.00B | -1.63B | 2.59B | 1.64B |
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. Technical Analysis
Negative
1.39
Price Trends
1.47
Negative
1.46
Negative
1.34
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.01
Positive
44.82
Neutral
23.75
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:1117, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.39 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.42, below the 50-day MA of 1.47, and above the 200-day MA of 1.34, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.75 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:1117.
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | HK$1.50B | 1.96 | 10.09% | ― | 7.17% | 87.17% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
45 Neutral | HK$2.68B | -7.07 | 0.82% | 0.69% | -3.59% | -459.09% | |
43 Neutral | HK$10.34B | -10.36 | -13.37% | 0.86% | -4.92% | 20.30% | |
41 Neutral | HK$16.18B | -42.17 | -3.91% | ― | 2.80% | 38.43% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
HK:1117
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd.
1.31
0.29
28.43%
HK:1431
YuanShengTai Dairy Farm
0.32
0.09
39.13%
HK:1432
China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd
0.32
0.14
79.78%
HK:9858
China Youran Dairy Group Limited
3.86
1.49
62.87%
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. Corporate Events
China Modern Dairy Calls 2026 AGM, Seeks Share Issuance Mandate
Apr 23, 2026
China Modern Dairy Holdings has called its annual general meeting for 5 June 2026 in Hong Kong, where shareholders will review the audited consolidated financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2025 and consider the re-election of five d...
China Modern Dairy Updates Market on Conditional Offer for China Shengmu
Apr 20, 2026
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. and China Shengmu Organic Milk Limited issued a joint update on the proposed mandatory conditional cash offer for all Shengmu shares not already owned by China Modern Dairy and its affiliate Start Great. The offer ...
China Modern Dairy Grants 59.9 Million Restricted Shares to Management
Mar 27, 2026
China Modern Dairy Holdings has granted 59,913,000 shares, about 0.76% of its issued share capital, to 173 middle and senior managers under its 2018 restricted share award scheme to motivate and retain key talent. The grant includes 7,656,000 shar...
China Modern Dairy Posts Strong 2025 Cash Flow as Digital, ESG Strategy Strengthens Industry Position
Mar 24, 2026
China Modern Dairy reported final results for 2025 highlighting steady business growth driven by digital transformation and full value-chain integration around its core raw milk production. The company emphasized excellent product quality, noting ...
China Modern Dairy Announces Board and Committee Reshuffle Effective 2026
Mar 24, 2026
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. announced boardroom changes effective March 25, 2026, as long-serving non-executive director Zhang Ping steps down upon reaching retirement age. He will also leave the company’s audit and remuneration committ...
China Modern Dairy Reshapes Board Roles and Committee Line-Up
Mar 24, 2026
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. has updated its board composition effective March 25, 2026, confirming Sun Yugang as chief executive officer and Zhu Xiaohui as chief financial officer among its executive directors, alongside a mix of non-executiv...
China Modern Dairy Subsidiary Issues RMB500 Million Perpetual Notes for Green Projects
Mar 24, 2026
China Modern Dairy’s non-wholly owned subsidiary Modern Farming has received approval in mainland China to issue RMB500 million of domestic perpetual medium-term notes with a 2.50% annual coupon and an initial term of two years, extendable p...
China Modern Dairy Updates Market on Conditional Offer for China Shengmu
Mar 20, 2026
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. and China Shengmu Organic Milk Limited have issued a joint update on a possible mandatory conditional cash offer by China Modern Dairy to acquire all issued shares of China Shengmu not already owned or agreed to be...
China Modern Dairy Sets March Board Meeting to Approve 2025 Results and Mull Final Dividend
Mar 5, 2026
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. has scheduled a board meeting for 24 March 2026 to approve the group’s audited final results for the financial year ended 31 December 2025 and to authorize their release to the market. The board will also con...
China Modern Dairy Updates Market on Conditional Offer for Shengmu Organic Milk
Feb 20, 2026
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. and China Shengmu Organic Milk Limited issued a joint update on the proposed mandatory conditional cash offer for all Shengmu shares not already owned or agreed to be acquired by China Modern Dairy and Start Great....
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.