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China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. (HK:1117)
:1117
Hong Kong Market

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. (1117) AI Stock Analysis

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HK:1117

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd.

(1117)

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Neutral 55 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
HK$1.50
▼(-7.41% Downside)
The overall stock score of 55 reflects significant financial challenges, including negative profitability and liquidity issues, despite some positive technical indicators. The valuation is also concerning due to a negative P/E ratio, suggesting caution for potential investors.
Positive Factors
Stable operational margins
Sustained EBIT and EBITDA margins near 17–20% indicate the core farming and processing operations generate healthy operating profitability. This operational efficiency supports resilience to input cost swings and is a durable foundation for restoring net profitability if financing and cash issues are managed.
Large asset base and scale
A substantial asset base reflects large-scale farm operations and investment capacity in breeding, herd expansion, and processing. Scale provides cost advantages, higher fixed-cost absorption, and strategic optionality to invest in productivity improvements that sustain competitive position over the medium term.
Diversified dairy product mix
A product portfolio spanning liquid milk, yogurt and cheese aligns with structural dietary shifts toward higher-protein and processed dairy in China. Diversification across product lines and channels reduces single-product risk and supports steadier revenue streams as consumer demand evolves.
Negative Factors
Negative net profitability
A negative net margin shows the company fails to convert operating strength into bottom-line profits, eroding retained earnings and ROE. Persisting losses can force asset sales, restructuring, or external capital raises, weakening long-term financial health and shareholder value.
Severe cash flow stress
Absent operating and free cash flow undermines the firm's ability to fund working capital, herd maintenance, and capex from internal resources. Prolonged cash deficits increase reliance on borrowing, elevate refinancing risk, and can constrain necessary investments to sustain production and quality over time.
Rising leverage and weaker equity
Higher leverage and reduced equity cushion limit financial flexibility and raise interest burden volatility. In a capital-intensive farming business this amplifies vulnerability to commodity, disease, or demand shocks, increases refinancing and covenant risks, and can constrain long-term growth investments.

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. (1117) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionChina Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd., an investment holding company, produces and sells milk in Mainland China. It produces and sells raw milk to customers for processing into dairy products; and liquid milk products. The company is also involved in breeding dairy cows; selling feeds; and producing fodder. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 33 farms. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Maanshan, the People's Republic of China. China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. is a subsidiary of China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited.
How the Company Makes MoneyChina Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. generates revenue primarily through the sale of its dairy products, including liquid milk, yogurt, and cheese, to both retail consumers and food service providers. The company benefits from economies of scale due to its large dairy farms, which allow for cost-effective milk production. Additionally, it may engage in partnerships with supermarkets and distributors to enhance its market reach. The company's revenue model is supported by the increasing demand for dairy products in China, driven by consumer trends toward healthier diets and higher protein intake. Strategic investments in technology and farm management also contribute to optimizing production efficiency and reducing costs, further bolstering its earnings potential.

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. shows operational efficiency with stable EBIT and EBITDA margins but faces significant profitability challenges due to a negative net margin and shrinking revenue. The balance sheet reveals increased leverage and reduced equity, posing financial stability concerns. Cash flow issues amplify liquidity risks, requiring strategic financial management.
Income Statement
62
Positive
The income statement shows fluctuating revenues, with a recent decline from 2023 to 2024, resulting in a negative growth rate of -1.51%. Gross profit margin in 2024 was 26.05%, indicating decent operational efficiency, though net profit margin turned negative at -10.69% due to a significant net loss. EBIT and EBITDA margins were 16.93% and 19.65% respectively, reflecting stable operational performance before interest and taxes but highlighting concerns about net profitability.
Balance Sheet
54
Neutral
The balance sheet indicates a strong asset base with a total of HKD 33.94 billion. However, the debt-to-equity ratio increased to 1.77 in 2024, suggesting increased leverage. Stockholders' equity decreased, leading to a lower equity ratio of 28.08%, down from previous years, which could pose financial risks. The return on equity has drastically fallen due to negative net income.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Cash flows are under stress with zero reported operating and free cash flows in 2024. There is a significant drop from the previous year's operating cash flow of HKD 5.45 billion, indicating potential liquidity issues. Free cash flow growth rate is negative, signaling cash generation challenges.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue12.91B13.25B13.46B12.30B7.08B6.02B
Gross Profit3.38B3.45B3.13B3.27B2.55B2.46B
EBITDA2.57B2.60B1.19B1.40B1.58B2.15B
Net Income-2.10B-1.42B175.16M562.50M1.02B770.01M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets33.39B33.94B31.39B28.82B23.67B15.57B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.90B3.06B1.96B2.14B1.89B1.17B
Total Debt19.28B16.90B13.52B13.54B9.06B5.86B
Total Liabilities23.33B22.82B19.55B17.18B12.56B7.53B
Stockholders Equity8.53B9.53B11.20B11.26B10.86B7.90B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-1.94B-2.02B1.12B-2.48B-125.57M454.39M
Operating Cash Flow2.50B2.40B5.45B1.58B1.87B1.94B
Investing Cash Flow-4.13B-3.97B-3.88B-3.99B-2.87B-765.73M
Financing Cash Flow1.51B2.00B-1.63B2.59B1.64B-963.99M

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price1.62
Price Trends
50DMA
1.46
Positive
100DMA
1.35
Positive
200DMA
1.24
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.03
Positive
RSI
51.29
Neutral
STOCH
68.65
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:1117, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1.62 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.58, above the 50-day MA of 1.46, and above the 200-day MA of 1.24, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.65 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for HK:1117.

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
72
Outperform
HK$1.43B4.625.66%13.78%432.26%
62
Neutral
$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%
55
Neutral
HK$12.23B-5.37-21.76%0.86%-2.69%-695.87%
54
Neutral
HK$18.65B-24.41-5.81%3.07%-64.23%
53
Neutral
HK$3.31B98.750.82%0.69%-7.11%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
HK:1117
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd.
1.55
0.69
80.23%
HK:1431
YuanShengTai Dairy Farm
0.31
0.15
90.62%
HK:1432
China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd
0.40
0.22
121.91%
HK:9858
China Youran Dairy Group Limited
4.45
2.62
143.17%

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. Corporate Events

China Modern Dairy Updates Market on Conditions for Possible Takeover of China Shengmu
Jan 19, 2026

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. has provided a monthly update on its proposed mandatory conditional cash offer for all issued shares of China Shengmu Organic Milk Limited not already owned or agreed to be acquired by CMD and Start Great Holdings Limited. The company confirmed that since the initial announcement of the potential offer, it has been working to satisfy the conditions precedent under its share purchase agreements, and independent shareholders of CMD have now approved the relevant transactions at an extraordinary general meeting on 16 January 2026. However, apart from two remaining conditions under the share purchase agreements, no other conditions precedent have yet been satisfied or waived, and completion of the share purchase agreements remains outstanding. CMD and CSM stated that further announcements will be made as required, while warning shareholders and potential investors that completion of the share purchase agreements may or may not occur and, consequently, the possible mandatory cash offer for CSM shares may or may not proceed.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1117) stock is a Hold with a HK$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. stock, see the HK:1117 Stock Forecast page.

China Modern Dairy Shareholders Approve Resolution Backing China Shengmu Offer
Jan 16, 2026

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. has announced that shareholders approved, by poll at an extraordinary general meeting held on 16 January 2026, a key resolution related to its previously flagged plan for a mandatory conditional cash offer for all issued shares of China Shengmu Organic Milk Limited not already owned or agreed to be acquired by the group and its partner. Due to listing-rule requirements, major shareholder Mengniu and its associates, as well as the trustee of the company’s share award scheme, abstained from voting, leaving 3.35 billion shares, or about 42.38% of issued share capital, eligible to vote; the successful passage of the resolution clears an important procedural hurdle for the proposed acquisition and offer structure, paving the way for Modern Dairy to advance its consolidation strategy in China’s dairy and organic milk market, with implications for its ownership structure and competitive positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1117) stock is a Hold with a HK$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. stock, see the HK:1117 Stock Forecast page.

China Modern Dairy Calls Online EGM to Approve Acquisition and Mandatory Cash Offer
Dec 24, 2025

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. has called an extraordinary general meeting for 16 January 2026, to be held exclusively via an online platform, where shareholders will vote on approving and ratifying a series of share purchase agreements and an associated acquisition. The meeting will also seek shareholder approval for a mandatory conditional cash offer, to be made by CLSA Limited on behalf of China Modern Dairy, to acquire all remaining shares of CSM not already owned or agreed to be acquired by the company and Start Great Holdings Limited, and will authorize the board to take all necessary actions, including adjustments to terms, to implement the acquisition and offer, signaling a potentially significant expansion of the group’s ownership and strategic control.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1117) stock is a Hold with a HK$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. stock, see the HK:1117 Stock Forecast page.

China Modern Dairy Updates Market on Conditional Takeover Offer for China Shengmu
Dec 19, 2025

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. and China Shengmu Organic Milk Limited have issued a joint update on the proposed mandatory conditional cash offer by CLSA Limited, on behalf of China Modern Dairy, to acquire all issued shares of China Shengmu not already owned by China Modern Dairy and its affiliate Start Great Holdings. The transaction remains contingent on completion of share purchase agreements and satisfaction or waiver of various conditions precedent, none of which have been fulfilled as of 19 December 2025. China Modern Dairy is preparing a shareholder circular, expected to be dispatched by 31 December 2025, and has begun the necessary regulatory filings, but cautions that the share purchase completion, and therefore the offer itself, may or may not proceed. Both companies advise shareholders and potential investors to exercise caution when dealing in their shares while further announcements on the offer’s progress are pending.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1117) stock is a Hold with a HK$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. stock, see the HK:1117 Stock Forecast page.

China Modern Dairy Delays Circular Dispatch for Major Transaction
Dec 15, 2025

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. announced a delay in the dispatch of its circular related to a major and connected transaction involving the acquisition of shares in China Shengmu Organic Milk Limited. The delay is due to the additional time required to prepare necessary information, with the circular now expected to be dispatched by December 31, 2025. This announcement highlights the conditional nature of the offer, which depends on the completion of share purchase agreements, urging shareholders and investors to exercise caution.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1117) stock is a Hold with a HK$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. stock, see the HK:1117 Stock Forecast page.

China Modern Dairy Extends Offer Document Dispatch Timeline for Shengmu Acquisition
Nov 20, 2025

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. has announced an extension for the dispatch of the offer document related to a possible mandatory conditional cash offer to acquire all issued shares of China Shengmu Organic Milk Limited. This extension is due to the need for additional time to satisfy conditions under the Share Purchase Agreements and to finalize information for the offer document. The extension aims to ensure all necessary conditions are met and is expected to impact the timeline for the acquisition process.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1117) stock is a Hold with a HK$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. stock, see the HK:1117 Stock Forecast page.

China Modern Dairy Reports Subsidiary’s Financial Performance
Oct 31, 2025

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. announced the unaudited consolidated financial information of its non-wholly owned subsidiary, Modern Farming (Group) Co., Ltd., for the nine months ending September 30, 2025. The financial data, prepared according to PRC Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, highlights the company’s ongoing financial activities, including the issuance of domestic short-term debentures and medium-term notes. Stakeholders are advised to exercise caution as the information is limited to Modern Farming and may not fully represent the overall operational status of China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1117) stock is a Hold with a HK$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. stock, see the HK:1117 Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 30, 2025