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China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. (HK:1117)
:1117
Hong Kong Market

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. (1117) AI Stock Analysis

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HK

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd.

(1117)

Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
HK$1.00
▼(-1.96%Downside)
The overall stock score is primarily driven by financial performance challenges, with liquidity and leverage concerns significantly impacting the score. Technical analysis confirms bearish momentum, and valuation is weak due to negative earnings, leading to an overall cautious outlook.
Positive Factors
Herd Growth and Milk Yield
China Modern Dairy is aiming for a 13% volume growth in 2025, driven by an increase in the percentage of milkable cows and higher average milk yield.
Sales Volume and Feed Costs
Cash EBITDA remained stable due to higher sales volume and reduced feed costs.
Negative Factors
Finance Costs
FY25 earnings are reduced by 14% due to higher finance costs from increased bank loans.
Profit Warning
China Modern Dairy issued a profit warning with a significant net loss, driven by higher-than-expected fair value adjustments due to lower raw milk prices and accelerated culling.

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. (1117) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionChina Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. is a leading provider in the dairy industry in China, primarily engaged in the production, processing, and distribution of raw milk. The company operates an extensive network of modern dairy farms equipped with advanced technology to ensure high-quality milk production. It caters to a broad range of customers, including large dairy product manufacturers and retailers, by offering premium raw milk that serves as a foundational ingredient for various dairy products.
How the Company Makes MoneyChina Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. generates revenue predominantly through the sale of raw milk. The company's business model focuses on large-scale dairy farming, where it raises cows and utilizes state-of-the-art milking and processing techniques to produce high-quality milk. This milk is sold to major dairy product manufacturers who use it to produce consumer dairy goods such as milk beverages, yogurt, and cheese. Additionally, the company has integrated vertically by investing in its own processing facilities, enhancing its ability to supply processed dairy products directly to retailers. Strategic partnerships with industry leaders and adherence to strict quality control standards further bolster its market position and revenue potential.

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. exhibits operational efficiency with stable EBIT and EBITDA margins, but faces significant profitability challenges as evidenced by a negative net margin and shrinking revenue. The balance sheet reveals increased leverage and reduced equity, posing financial stability concerns. Cash flow issues amplify liquidity risks, requiring strategic financial management to address these challenges.
Income Statement
62
Positive
The income statement shows fluctuating revenues, with a recent decline from 2023 to 2024, resulting in a negative growth rate of -1.51%. Gross profit margin in 2024 was 26.05%, indicating decent operational efficiency, though net profit margin turned negative at -10.69% due to a significant net loss. EBIT and EBITDA margins were 16.93% and 19.65% respectively, reflecting stable operational performance before interest and taxes but highlighting concerns about net profitability.
Balance Sheet
54
Neutral
The balance sheet indicates a strong asset base with a total of HKD 33.94 billion. However, the debt-to-equity ratio increased to 1.77 in 2024, suggesting increased leverage. Stockholders' equity decreased, leading to a lower equity ratio of 28.08%, down from previous years, which could pose financial risks. The return on equity has drastically fallen due to negative net income.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Cash flows are under stress with zero reported operating and free cash flows in 2024. There is a significant drop from the previous year's operating cash flow of HKD 5.45 billion, indicating potential liquidity issues. Free cash flow growth rate is negative, signaling cash generation challenges.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue13.25B13.46B12.30B7.08B6.02B
Gross Profit3.45B3.13B3.27B2.55B2.46B
EBITDA2.60B1.19B1.40B1.58B2.15B
Net Income-1.42B175.16M562.50M1.02B770.01M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets33.94B31.39B28.82B23.67B15.57B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.06B1.96B2.14B1.89B1.17B
Total Debt16.90B13.52B13.54B9.06B5.86B
Total Liabilities22.82B19.55B17.18B12.56B7.53B
Stockholders Equity9.53B11.20B11.26B10.86B7.90B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-2.02B1.12B-2.48B-125.57M454.39M
Operating Cash Flow2.40B5.45B1.58B1.87B1.94B
Investing Cash Flow-3.97B-3.88B-3.99B-2.87B-765.73M
Financing Cash Flow2.00B-1.63B2.59B1.64B-963.99M

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price1.02
Price Trends
50DMA
1.05
Negative
100DMA
1.06
Negative
200DMA
0.95
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.01
Positive
RSI
42.48
Neutral
STOCH
33.27
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:1117, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.02 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.08, below the 50-day MA of 1.05, and above the 200-day MA of 0.95, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:1117.

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
HK$1.31B4.086.05%13.36%
60
Neutral
HK$17.56B11.080.20%5.34%2.68%-48.29%
56
Neutral
HK$10.16B-5.98%5.49%37.55%
53
Neutral
€2.14B-1.61%0.90%-9.24%-177.19%
44
Neutral
HK$8.05B-13.67%1.27%-3.39%-868.11%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
HK:1117
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd.
1.02
0.33
47.83%
HK:9858
China Youran Dairy Group Limited
2.60
1.43
122.22%
HK:1432
China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd
0.26
0.07
34.21%
HK:1431
YuanShengTai Dairy Farm
0.28
0.18
180.00%

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. Corporate Events

China Modern Dairy to Issue $350 Million Sustainability Bonds
Jul 3, 2025

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. has announced the proposed issuance of $350 million in sustainability bonds due in 2030, with an interest rate of 4.875%. The proceeds from these bonds are intended for refinancing purposes. The bonds will be offered outside the United States and are subject to certain conditions, including listing on the Stock Exchange for professional investors only. This move is part of the company’s strategy to enhance its financial structure while promoting sustainability, although the completion of the bond issuance is not guaranteed.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1117) stock is a Buy with a HK$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. stock, see the HK:1117 Stock Forecast page.

China Modern Dairy Issues Profit Warning Amid Market Challenges
Jun 22, 2025

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. has issued a profit warning, indicating an expected significant net loss for the first half of 2025 due to a decrease in raw milk prices and a loss in the revaluation of dairy cows. Despite these challenges, the company has managed to control operational costs and increase raw milk sales volume. The management remains optimistic about future profitability as market conditions stabilize and demand for dairy products recovers.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1117) stock is a Buy with a HK$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. stock, see the HK:1117 Stock Forecast page.

China Modern Dairy Announces Successful AGM Resolutions
Jun 12, 2025

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. announced that all resolutions were successfully passed at its Annual General Meeting held on June 12, 2025. Key resolutions included the approval of the audited financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2024, the declaration of a final dividend, and the re-election of several directors. The meeting saw full participation from shareholders, with no abstentions, indicating strong support for the company’s strategic direction and governance.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1117) stock is a Buy with a HK$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. stock, see the HK:1117 Stock Forecast page.

China Modern Dairy Announces Final Dividend for 2024
Jun 12, 2025

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. has announced a final cash dividend of RMB 0.0122 per share for the financial year ending December 31, 2024. This dividend will be paid in Hong Kong dollars at an exchange rate of RMB 1 to HKD 1.0931, with a payment date set for June 27, 2025. This announcement reflects the company’s financial performance and commitment to returning value to its shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1117) stock is a Buy with a HK$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. stock, see the HK:1117 Stock Forecast page.

China Modern Dairy Announces 2025 Annual General Meeting
May 19, 2025

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. has announced its upcoming annual general meeting scheduled for June 12, 2025, in Hong Kong. The meeting will address several key agenda items, including the consideration of audited financial statements for 2024, approval of a final dividend, re-election of directors, and the appointment of KPMG as auditors. Additionally, a general mandate will be discussed to allow the directors to issue additional shares, which could impact the company’s market operations and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1117) stock is a Buy with a HK$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. stock, see the HK:1117 Stock Forecast page.

China Modern Dairy Proposes Auditor Change to KPMG
May 14, 2025

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. has announced a proposed change of auditors, with Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu set to retire after more than a decade of service. The company plans to appoint KPMG as the new auditors, pending shareholder approval at the upcoming annual general meeting. This change is part of the company’s commitment to good corporate governance practices, and there are no disagreements or outstanding matters between the company and Deloitte.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1117) stock is a Buy with a HK$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. stock, see the HK:1117 Stock Forecast page.

China Modern Dairy Releases Q1 2025 Financials for Modern Farming
Apr 29, 2025

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. announced the unaudited consolidated financial information for its non-wholly owned subsidiary, Modern Farming (Group) Co., Ltd., for the first quarter of 2025. The release follows the issuance of RMB300 million in medium-term notes by Modern Farming. The financial data, prepared according to PRC Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, is available on the Shanghai Clearing House and China Money Network websites. The company advises caution to shareholders and potential investors, as the information is limited to Modern Farming and may not reflect the full operational status of the entire company.

China Modern Dairy’s Subsidiary Issues RMB300 Million Medium-Term Notes
Apr 28, 2025

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. announced that its subsidiary, Modern Farming (Group) Co., Ltd., has received approval to issue RMB300 million in domestic medium-term notes in China. The proceeds from these notes, which have been rated AA+, will be used for rural revitalization and daily operations, including purchasing feeds from local farmers and repaying bank borrowings.

China Modern Dairy Grants Shares to Boost Management Retention
Apr 8, 2025

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. has announced the grant of 65,317,000 Awarded Shares under its 2018 Share Award Scheme to 165 members of its middle and senior management. This initiative aims to motivate and retain key personnel, contributing to the company’s sustainable growth and business performance in 2025. The awarded shares represent approximately 0.83% of the company’s issued share capital and will vest over two years, subject to specific conditions.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 27, 2025