China Youran Dairy Group Limited (9858) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: HK$19.27B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 24.03M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.01
• Revenue Growth: 3.07%
• EPS Growth: -64.23%
• Country: HK
• Employees: 12,930
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Agricultural Farm Products
• EPS (TTM): -0.09
• Shares Outstanding: 3,892,727,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 18,391,632
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 24,032,701
• PEG Ratio: 0.24
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.53
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.30
• P/FCF Ratio: -9.14
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: HK$6.69
• Price Target Upside: 33.80% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 59 Neutral
• Price Target: HK$5.00 ▲(0.00% Upside)

The overall stock score is primarily influenced by strong technical analysis indicators, suggesting bullish momentum. However, this is offset by weak financial performance due to profitability challenges and high leverage. The valuation is also poor, with a negative P/E ratio and no dividend yield, reflecting the company's ongoing financial struggles.

Positive Factors

Diversified premium product portfolio

A broad product mix across liquid milk, yogurt and cheese plus emphasis on premium/organic lines and supply-chain efficiency supports durable demand diversification. This reduces revenue concentration risk and helps sustain margins as consumer preferences shift toward higher-value dairy products.

Consistent revenue growth trajectory

Ongoing top-line growth reflects sustained consumer demand and market penetration. Persistent revenue expansion gives the company scale advantages, supports investment in brand and distribution, and provides a platform to pursue margin improvement over multiple quarters.

Positive operating cash generation

Healthy operating cash flow indicates core business generates liquidity, supporting working capital and ongoing operations. Over the medium term this aids reinvestment and resilience versus cyclical weakness, even if financing is needed for larger capex.

Negative Factors

High leverage and debt reliance

A high debt load increases interest and refinancing risk, reducing financial flexibility. Over 2–6 months this can constrain investments, amplify downturn impacts, and limit the company’s ability to fund growth internally or respond to supply‑chain disruptions without external financing.

Sustained net losses and negative ROE

Persistent net losses and negative ROE indicate the company is not yet generating shareholder returns from capital employed. This undermines equity strength, hampers retained earnings growth, and may force reliance on external capital that dilutes long-term value creation.

Negative free cash flow driven by high capex

Ongoing negative free cash flow from elevated capex means the business must access external funding to cover investments and operations. Structurally, this increases leverage or equity needs, limiting the company’s ability to self-fund growth or deleverage in the medium term.

China Youran Dairy Group Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

China Youran Dairy Group Limited, an investment holding company, operates as an integrated provider of products and services in the upstream dairy industry in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Raw Milk Business and Comprehensive Ruminant Farming Solutions segments. It offers raw milk to dairy manufacturers. It also provides nutritious concentrated feed and forage grass for dairy farms; frozen bovine semen, sex-sorted frozen bovine semen, embryos, breeding solutions, etc.; and ruminant farming products, such as veterinary drugs, animal husbandry equipment, and other items for dairy farms through its online retail platform, Jumuc.com, and offline pick-up stores. The company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Hohhot, the People's Republic of China.

How the Company Makes Money

China Youran Dairy Group Limited generates revenue primarily through the sale of its dairy products, which include liquid milk, yogurt, and cheese. The company benefits from a diversified product portfolio that appeals to different consumer segments, thereby enhancing its market reach. Key revenue streams include direct sales to retailers and distributors, as well as online sales channels that have gained traction in recent years. Additionally, strategic partnerships with local and international suppliers enable the company to optimize its supply chain and reduce costs. Factors contributing to its earnings include growing consumer demand for dairy products in China, a focus on premium and organic product lines, and continuous investment in marketing and brand development to strengthen its market presence.

China Youran Dairy Group Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

China Youran Dairy Group Limited shows robust revenue growth, but profitability remains a concern with continued net losses. The reliance on debt financing is high, which could pose financial risks if not managed carefully. While operating cash flows are strong, negative free cash flow highlights challenges in managing capital expenditures. Overall, the company needs to focus on improving profitability and managing its leverage to strengthen its financial position.

Income Statement

The company demonstrates a strong revenue growth trajectory, with a notable increase from previous years. However, despite the growth in revenue, the company is experiencing losses in net income, indicating profitability issues. The gross profit margin has improved, reflecting efficiency in cost management, but negative net profit margins highlight challenges in overall profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a high level of debt compared to equity, as evidenced by a high debt-to-equity ratio. This indicates potential leverage risks. The equity ratio is moderate, suggesting a balanced asset structure. Return on equity is negative, signaling inefficiencies in generating income for shareholders.

Cash Flow

The cash flow analysis reveals a positive operating cash flow, indicating good cash generation from core operations. However, free cash flow remains negative, affected by high capital expenditures. The free cash flow to net income ratio is concerning, primarily due to net losses, impacting cash sustainability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	20.33B	20.10B	18.69B	18.05B	15.35B	11.78B
Gross Profit	6.02B	5.78B	4.47B	4.22B	4.69B	3.60B
EBITDA	5.09B	4.81B	3.42B	2.01B	3.21B	2.24B
Net Income	-656.59M	-690.89M	-1.05B	414.77M	1.56B	1.34B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	42.28B	43.66B	46.20B	43.45B	31.96B	22.20B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.17B	882.37M	3.94B	2.86B	1.02B	2.62B
Total Debt	26.82B	26.49B	28.08B	23.32B	13.18B	10.21B
Total Liabilities	30.34B	31.50B	33.10B	28.70B	17.08B	13.14B
Stockholders Equity	11.02B	11.30B	11.83B	13.06B	13.18B	7.82B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-404.95M	-651.89M	-3.66B	-6.13B	-5.53B	-2.06B
Operating Cash Flow	5.36B	5.84B	4.39B	2.55B	2.27B	1.71B
Investing Cash Flow	-4.42B	-5.60B	-4.34B	-10.78B	-8.70B	-4.75B
Financing Cash Flow	-935.49M	-3.11B	2.99B	8.05B	5.42B	5.09B

China Youran Dairy Group Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 5.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:9858, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.84, above the 50-day MA of 4.20, and above the 200-day MA of 3.32, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HK:9858.

China Youran Dairy Group Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
1431	72 Outperform	HK$1.36B	4.55	5.66%	―	13.78%	432.26%
2419	71 Outperform	HK$10.98B	6.95	47.64%	1.33%	―	―
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
9858	59 Neutral	HK$19.27B	-27.26	-5.81%	―	3.07%	-64.23%
1117	55 Neutral	HK$12.79B	-5.68	-21.76%	0.86%	-2.69%	-695.87%
1432	53 Neutral	HK$2.89B	85.00	0.82%	0.69%	-7.11%	―