China Youran Dairy Group Limited (HK:9858)
:9858
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China Youran Dairy Group Limited
(9858)
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Rating:41Neutral
Price Target:
HK$3.50
▼(-30.00% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/28/26
The score is driven primarily by weakened financial performance (sharp margin compression, multi-year net losses, and high leverage) alongside bearish technical conditions (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). Valuation provides little support given the negative P/E and lack of dividend data.
Positive Factors
Upstream scale & core role
As a large-scale upstream dairy producer focused on breeding, herd management and raw-milk supply, the company occupies a structurally important position in the dairy value chain. Scale and specialization support stable volume-based revenue, operational learning curves and supplier/customer stickiness over time.
Negative Factors
Severe margin compression
A collapse to ~5% gross margin and consecutive multi-year net losses signal structural profitability issues: weaker pricing or rising input costs and impaired operating leverage. This erodes equity and returns, reduces internal capital generation and raises the bar for any sustained recovery in profitability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Upstream scale & core role
As a large-scale upstream dairy producer focused on breeding, herd management and raw-milk supply, the company occupies a structurally important position in the dairy value chain. Scale and specialization support stable volume-based revenue, operational learning curves and supplier/customer stickiness over time.
Read all positive factors
China Youran Dairy Group Limited (9858) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$16.47B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)24.03M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.03
Revenue Growth2.80%
EPS Growth38.43%
CountryHK
Employees12,930
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryAgricultural Farm Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.04
Shares Outstanding4,191,978,000
10 Day Avg. Volume18,391,632
30 Day Avg. Volume24,032,701
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.08
Price to Book (P/B)1.62
Price to Sales (P/S)0.88
P/FCF Ratio-99.26
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
HK$5.74Price Target Upside14.80% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.34
Revenue Forecast (FY)HK$22.00B
China Youran Dairy Group Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
China Youran Dairy Group Limited, an investment holding company, operates as an integrated provider of products and services in the upstream dairy industry in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Raw Milk Business and Compr...
How the Company Makes Money
The company primarily makes money by selling raw milk produced from its dairy cow herds to downstream dairy processors and other customers. Revenue is therefore driven by (i) the volume of raw milk produced and delivered (which depends on herd siz...
China Youran Dairy Group Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 20.12B | 20.10B | 18.69B | 18.05B | 15.35B |
| Gross Profit | 1.10B | 5.78B | 4.47B | 4.22B | 4.69B |
| EBITDA | 351.16M | 4.81B | 3.42B | 2.01B | 3.21B |
| Net Income | -421.20M | -690.89M | -1.05B | 414.77M | 1.56B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 42.39B | 43.66B | 46.20B | 43.45B | 31.96B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.83B | 882.37M | 3.94B | 2.86B | 1.02B |
| Total Debt | 26.02B | 26.49B | 28.08B | 23.32B | 13.18B |
| Total Liabilities | 30.54B | 31.50B | 33.10B | 28.70B | 17.08B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.98B | 11.30B | 11.83B | 13.06B | 13.18B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -178.95M | -651.89M | -3.66B | -6.13B | -5.53B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.06B | 5.84B | 4.39B | 2.55B | 2.27B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.97B | -5.60B | -4.34B | -10.78B | -8.70B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -829.04M | -3.11B | 2.99B | 8.05B | 5.42B |
China Youran Dairy Group Limited Technical Analysis
Negative
5.00
Price Trends
4.51
Negative
4.47
Negative
3.95
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.05
Negative
47.72
Neutral
59.85
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:9858, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.13, above the 50-day MA of 4.51, and above the 200-day MA of 3.95, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:9858.
China Youran Dairy Group Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | HK$1.50B | 1.96 | 10.09% | ― | 7.17% | 87.17% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
53 Neutral | HK$2.64B | -7.07 | 0.82% | 0.69% | -3.59% | -459.09% | |
48 Neutral | HK$10.67B | 17.54 | 15.66% | 1.33% | 3.10% | -65.31% | |
43 Neutral | HK$10.58B | -10.36 | -13.37% | 0.86% | -4.92% | 20.35% | |
41 Neutral | HK$16.47B | -42.17 | -3.91% | ― | 2.80% | 38.43% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
HK:9858
China Youran Dairy Group Limited
3.93
1.56
65.82%
HK:1431
YuanShengTai Dairy Farm
0.32
0.09
39.13%
HK:1432
China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd
0.32
0.14
80.00%
HK:1117
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd.
1.34
0.32
31.37%
HK:2419
Dekon Food And Agriculture Group Class H
67.70
24.65
57.26%
China Youran Dairy Group Limited Corporate Events
China Youran Dairy Sets 2026 AGM to Approve Accounts, Board Mandates and Share Issuance Authority
Apr 24, 2026
China Youran Dairy Group Limited has called its annual general meeting for May 22, 2026 in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, where shareholders will review and adopt the audited consolidated financial statements and directors’ and auditors’ repo...
China Youran Dairy Renews Key Supply and Financial Deals With Controlling Shareholder Yili
Apr 13, 2026
China Youran Dairy Group Limited has renewed a series of framework agreements with its controlling shareholder Yili Group, covering the purchase of dairy products, the sale of raw milk and the provision of financial services from January 1, 2027 t...
China Youran Dairy Further Delays Circular on Share Subscription and Whitewash Waiver
Apr 2, 2026
China Youran Dairy Group Limited has announced a further delay in sending out its circular related to a connected transaction involving a subscription of new shares under a specific mandate and an associated whitewash waiver application. The deadl...
China Youran Dairy Narrows Annual Loss as Core Profitability and Milk Yields Improve
Mar 27, 2026
China Youran Dairy Group Limited reported a modest 2.8% increase in revenue to RMB20.65 billion for the year ended December 31, 2025, with gross profit rising 6.4% to RMB6.15 billion, reflecting improved operational efficiency and stronger margins...
China Youran Dairy Signs Connected Deal to Source Dairy Cows from Yili Subsidiary
Mar 27, 2026
China Youran Dairy Group Limited has signed a Dairy Cows Procurement Framework Agreement with YouYuan Farm, under which the group will purchase dairy cows from April 1, 2026 to March 31, 2027. The deal is designed to secure a stable supply of live...
China Youran Dairy Sets March Board Meeting to Review 2025 Results
Mar 10, 2026
China Youran Dairy Group Limited has scheduled a board meeting for March 27, 2026 to review and approve the annual results for the year ended December 31, 2025 for the company and its subsidiaries. The board will also consider the potential declar...
China Youran Dairy Further Delays Circular on Share Subscription and Whitewash Waiver
Mar 6, 2026
China Youran Dairy Group Limited has announced a further delay in sending out a shareholder circular related to a connected transaction involving a subscription of new shares under a specific mandate and an associated whitewash waiver. The deadlin...
China Youran Dairy Delays Circular on Share Subscription and Whitewash Waiver
Feb 6, 2026
China Youran Dairy Group Limited has announced a delay in sending to shareholders a circular related to a connected transaction involving a subscription of new shares under a specific mandate and an associated application for a whitewash waiver. T...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.