China Youran Dairy Group Limited (9858) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: HK$19.53B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 24.03M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.98
• Revenue Growth: 3.07%
• EPS Growth: -64.23%
• Country: HK
• Employees: 12,930
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Agricultural Farm Products
• EPS (TTM): -0.09
• Shares Outstanding: 4,191,978,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 18,391,632
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 24,032,701
• PEG Ratio: 0.24
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.53
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.30
• P/FCF Ratio: -9.14
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: HK$6.71
• Price Target Upside: 34.10% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: HK$5.00 ▲(0.00% Upside)

The score is primarily held back by financial fundamentals—continued net losses, negative ROE, high leverage, and negative free cash flow—despite strong revenue growth and positive operating cash flow. Technically, signals are mixed with weaker near-term momentum but a still-supportive longer-term trend. Valuation is pressured by loss-making results and the absence of a dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Diversified product portfolio

A diversified offering across liquid milk, yogurt and cheese plus retail and online channels reduces revenue concentration risk. This breadth supports steady demand, helps retain customers across segments, and gives resilience to shifts in consumer preferences over months.

Sustained revenue growth

Consistent top-line growth indicates expanding market penetration and product acceptance in China’s growing dairy market. Durable revenue expansion supports capacity utilization and scale benefits, enabling reinvestment in quality and distribution over the medium term.

Positive operating cash flow

Operating cash generation shows the underlying business converts sales into cash, supporting working capital and ongoing operations without relying solely on external funding. This operational cash strength underpins medium-term sustainability despite other cash pressures.

Negative Factors

Ongoing net losses and negative ROE

Persistent net losses and a negative return on equity erode shareholder capital and limit retained earnings for reinvestment. Over months this constrains internal funding for growth and increases reliance on external financing, hindering long-term profitability recovery.

High leverage / debt burden

Elevated debt relative to equity raises interest and refinancing risk, reducing financial flexibility. In a sector with input-cost volatility, high leverage increases vulnerability to margin pressure and limits ability to fund expansion or weather demand fluctuations over the medium term.

Negative free cash flow from capex

Negative free cash flow driven by heavy capex consumes operational cash and can necessitate external funding. This dynamic strains liquidity and may delay breakeven on investments, constraining strategic flexibility and increasing financing costs over several quarters.

China Youran Dairy Group Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

China Youran Dairy Group Limited, an investment holding company, operates as an integrated provider of products and services in the upstream dairy industry in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Raw Milk Business and Comprehensive Ruminant Farming Solutions segments. It offers raw milk to dairy manufacturers. It also provides nutritious concentrated feed and forage grass for dairy farms; frozen bovine semen, sex-sorted frozen bovine semen, embryos, breeding solutions, etc.; and ruminant farming products, such as veterinary drugs, animal husbandry equipment, and other items for dairy farms through its online retail platform, Jumuc.com, and offline pick-up stores. The company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Hohhot, the People's Republic of China.

How the Company Makes Money

China Youran Dairy Group Limited generates revenue primarily through the sale of its dairy products, which include liquid milk, yogurt, and cheese. The company benefits from a diversified product portfolio that appeals to different consumer segments, thereby enhancing its market reach. Key revenue streams include direct sales to retailers and distributors, as well as online sales channels that have gained traction in recent years. Additionally, strategic partnerships with local and international suppliers enable the company to optimize its supply chain and reduce costs. Factors contributing to its earnings include growing consumer demand for dairy products in China, a focus on premium and organic product lines, and continuous investment in marketing and brand development to strengthen its market presence.

China Youran Dairy Group Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue growth and positive operating cash flow are positives, but ongoing net losses, negative ROE, high leverage (high debt-to-equity), and negative free cash flow driven by heavy capex materially weaken overall financial quality.

Income Statement

The company demonstrates a strong revenue growth trajectory, with a notable increase from previous years. However, despite the growth in revenue, the company is experiencing losses in net income, indicating profitability issues. The gross profit margin has improved, reflecting efficiency in cost management, but negative net profit margins highlight challenges in overall profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a high level of debt compared to equity, as evidenced by a high debt-to-equity ratio. This indicates potential leverage risks. The equity ratio is moderate, suggesting a balanced asset structure. Return on equity is negative, signaling inefficiencies in generating income for shareholders.

Cash Flow

The cash flow analysis reveals a positive operating cash flow, indicating good cash generation from core operations. However, free cash flow remains negative, affected by high capital expenditures. The free cash flow to net income ratio is concerning, primarily due to net losses, impacting cash sustainability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	20.33B	20.10B	18.69B	18.05B	15.35B	11.78B
Gross Profit	6.02B	5.78B	4.47B	4.22B	4.69B	3.60B
EBITDA	5.09B	4.81B	3.42B	2.01B	3.21B	2.24B
Net Income	-656.59M	-690.89M	-1.05B	414.77M	1.56B	1.34B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	42.28B	43.66B	46.20B	43.45B	31.96B	22.20B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.17B	882.37M	3.94B	2.86B	1.02B	2.62B
Total Debt	26.82B	26.49B	28.08B	23.32B	13.18B	10.21B
Total Liabilities	30.34B	31.50B	33.10B	28.70B	17.08B	13.14B
Stockholders Equity	11.02B	11.30B	11.83B	13.06B	13.18B	7.82B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-404.95M	-651.89M	-3.66B	-6.13B	-5.53B	-2.06B
Operating Cash Flow	5.36B	5.84B	4.39B	2.55B	2.27B	1.71B
Investing Cash Flow	-4.42B	-5.60B	-4.34B	-10.78B	-8.70B	-4.75B
Financing Cash Flow	-935.49M	-3.11B	2.99B	8.05B	5.42B	5.09B

China Youran Dairy Group Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 5.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:9858, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.63, above the 50-day MA of 4.49, and above the 200-day MA of 3.47, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.59 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HK:9858.

China Youran Dairy Group Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
1431	72 Outperform	HK$1.41B	4.55	5.66%	―	13.78%	432.26%
2419	71 Outperform	HK$11.00B	6.92	47.64%	1.33%	―	―
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
1117	55 Neutral	HK$12.63B	-5.57	-21.76%	0.86%	-2.69%	-695.87%
9858	54 Neutral	HK$19.53B	-26.60	-5.81%	―	3.07%	-64.23%
1432	53 Neutral	HK$3.14B	93.75	0.82%	0.69%	-7.11%	―

China Youran Dairy Group Limited Corporate Events

China Youran Dairy Raises HK$1.16 Billion via Share Placing and Top-Up Subscription

China Youran Dairy Group Limited has completed a placing and top-up subscription transaction involving 299,250,000 existing shares placed to at least six independent investors at HK$3.92 per share, followed by the issuance of an equal number of new shares to the selling shareholder at the same price. The structure leaves the selling shareholder’s stake and investment cost in the company unchanged while providing the company with approximately HK$1,158.59 million in net proceeds, strengthening its capital base without creating any new substantial shareholder and potentially enhancing its financial flexibility for future corporate needs.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9858) stock is a Hold with a HK$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Youran Dairy Group Limited stock, see the HK:9858 Stock Forecast page.

China Youran Dairy to Raise HK$2.35 Billion via Share Placing and Top-Up Subscription

China Youran Dairy Group Limited has entered into a Placing and Subscription Agreement and a Specific Mandate Subscription Agreement on 16 January 2026 to raise aggregate gross proceeds of approximately HK$2.35 billion through a combination of placing existing shares and issuing new shares. Under the general mandate, a seller will place existing shares amounting to about 7.69% of the current issued share capital to at least six independent professional and institutional investors at HK$3.92 per share, and will then subscribe for an equivalent number of new “top-up” shares at the same price, which will represent roughly 7.14% of the enlarged share capital following completion. These transactions, alongside the connected subscription under a specific mandate and a whitewash waiver application, are designed to strengthen the company’s capital base without requiring shareholder approval for the top-up issuance, potentially enhancing financial flexibility while modestly diluting existing holdings.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9858) stock is a Hold with a HK$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Youran Dairy Group Limited stock, see the HK:9858 Stock Forecast page.