HCA Healthcare (HCA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $120.15B
• Dividend Yield: 0.61%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.10M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.34
• Revenue Growth: 6.82%
• EPS Growth: 15.82%
• Country: US
• Employees: 226,000
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Care Facilities
• EPS (TTM): 8.01
• Shares Outstanding: 223,622,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,099,275
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,097,264
• PEG Ratio: 0.56
• Price to Book (P/B): -17.87
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.42
• P/FCF Ratio: 14.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.40
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.23
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.36
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.78
• 1Y Price Target: $550.73
• Price Target Upside: 2.50% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 16
• EPS Forecast (FY): 30.27
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $78.60B

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: $612.00 ▲(13.91% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 01/28/26
• Date: Action: Upgraded 01/28/26

The score is driven by strong operating performance and cash generation plus a clearly positive price trend. The biggest offset is elevated balance-sheet risk (high debt and negative equity), and guidance includes meaningful policy/reimbursement headwinds that increase execution risk despite management’s mitigation plans and enhanced shareholder returns.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

Sustained OCF (~$12.6B TTM) and FCF (~$7.7B TTM) provide durable internal liquidity to fund capex, service debt, and return capital. Over a 2–6 month horizon this cash engine supports resiliency versus shocks, underpins buybacks/dividends and enables strategic investments.

Extensive network & outpatient expansion

A broad, growing outpatient footprint (~2,700 units) and higher capex signal structural shift to lower‑cost care delivery and greater access. This diversification reduces reliance on inpatient volumes, supports fee-for-service continuity and should sustain revenue mix and margin resilience over months of execution.

Consistent volume growth and healthy margins

Repeated quarter-to-quarter volume gains and record patient encounters demonstrate stable demand and utilization. Combined with roughly ~20% EBITDA margins noted elsewhere in filings, this creates predictable earnings leverage, supporting cash flow and operational planning across the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

High leverage and negative equity

Elevated debt (~$50.2B) and negative equity materially limit financial flexibility. Even with strong cash flow, the capital structure increases sensitivity to interest rate moves, refinancing risk and operational shocks, reducing capacity for opportunistic investment or cushioning policy-driven revenue swings.

Exchange subsidy/reimbursement headwind

A $600–900M EBITDA hit from subsidy expiration and modeled 15–20% exchange volume loss represent structural reimbursement risk. Reduced payer coverage and shifting patient mix raise uncompensated care and weaken near‑term revenue visibility, requiring multi‑quarter mitigation to fully offset.

Rising labor and physician cost pressures

High single‑digit physician cost growth and elevated contract labor (≈4.2% of SWB) exert ongoing margin pressure. Labor is a persistent structural expense in healthcare; without sustained productivity gains or pricing leverage, rising labor costs can erode margins and cash conversion across multiple quarters.

HCA Healthcare Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

HCA Healthcare, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides health care services company in the United States. The company operates general and acute care hospitals that offers medical and surgical services, including inpatient care, intensive care, cardiac care, diagnostic, and emergency services; and outpatient services, such as outpatient surgery, laboratory, radiology, respiratory therapy, cardiology, and physical therapy. It also operates outpatient health care facilities consisting of freestanding ambulatory surgery centers, freestanding emergency care facilities, urgent care facilities, walk-in clinics, diagnostic and imaging centers, rehabilitation and physical therapy centers, radiation and oncology therapy centers, physician practices, and various other facilities. In addition, the company operates psychiatric hospitals, which provide therapeutic programs comprising child, adolescent and adult psychiatric care, adolescent and adult alcohol, drug abuse treatment, and counseling services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 182 hospitals, including 175 general and acute care hospitals, five psychiatric hospitals, and two rehabilitation hospitals; 125 freestanding surgery centers; and 21 freestanding endoscopy centers in 20 states and England. The company was formerly known as HCA Holdings, Inc. HCA Healthcare, Inc. was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee.

How the Company Makes Money

HCA Healthcare generates revenue primarily through patient services provided at its hospitals and outpatient facilities. The key revenue streams include inpatient admissions, outpatient services, surgical procedures, emergency room visits, and diagnostic imaging. The company is largely funded by third-party payers such as Medicare, Medicaid, and private insurance companies, which reimburse HCA for the medical services rendered. Additionally, HCA benefits from partnerships with various healthcare organizations and has implemented strategies to optimize operational efficiency, reduce costs, and enhance patient care, contributing to its overall earnings. The company also invests in technology and data analytics to improve service delivery and patient outcomes, further supporting its revenue generation efforts.

HCA Healthcare Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating performance is strong (TTM revenue $75.6B, solid profitability with ~20.6% EBITDA margin and meaningful free cash flow of ~$7.7B), but the balance sheet is a major constraint with high debt (~$50.2B) and negative equity (~-$6.0B), which materially reduces financial flexibility despite strong cash generation.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue rose to $75.6B with very strong year-over-year growth (about +165%), and profitability is solid with roughly 20.6% EBITDA margin and ~9.0% net margin. Margins have generally held up well across the period, supporting consistent earnings power. Offsetting this, net margin is below the 2021 peak (~11.8%), and the 2022–2023 gross profit margin data appears unusually volatile versus other years, which adds some uncertainty to trend interpretation.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is the key constraint: total debt is high at ~$50.2B in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) against total assets of ~$60.7B. Stockholders’ equity is negative (about -$6.0B TTM), which makes equity-based leverage and returns unfavorable and reflects a thin/negative equity cushion. While assets have grown over time, the capital structure leaves less flexibility and increases sensitivity to operating or funding shocks.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is strong in absolute terms: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is ~$12.6B and free cash flow is ~$7.7B. Free cash flow covers a meaningful portion of earnings (about 63% of net income), supporting ongoing debt service and shareholder returns. The main weakness is that free cash flow declined about 5% in TTM and cash conversion versus accounting earnings is not consistently high, suggesting working-capital and/or capital spending demands can pressure near-term free cash flow.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	75.60B	70.60B	64.97B	60.23B	58.75B
Gross Profit	31.37B	28.68B	25.58B	23.18B	22.49B
EBITDA	15.60B	13.90B	12.72B	13.29B	14.25B
Net Income	6.78B	5.76B	5.24B	5.64B	6.96B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	60.72B	59.51B	56.21B	52.44B	50.74B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.04B	2.02B	935.00M	908.00M	1.45B
Total Debt	50.20B	45.24B	41.86B	40.20B	36.73B
Total Liabilities	63.49B	58.96B	55.15B	52.51B	49.25B
Stockholders Equity	-6.03B	-2.50B	-1.77B	-2.77B	-933.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	7.69B	5.64B	4.69B	4.13B	5.38B
Operating Cash Flow	12.64B	10.51B	9.43B	8.52B	8.96B
Investing Cash Flow	-4.99B	-4.93B	-5.32B	-3.39B	-2.64B
Financing Cash Flow	-8.55B	-4.58B	-4.09B	-5.66B	-6.66B

HCA Healthcare Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 537.28
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HCA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 537.28 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 535.14, above the 50-day MA of 503.36, and above the 200-day MA of 437.73, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 9.79 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.28 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HCA.

HCA Healthcare Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HCA	75 Outperform	$120.15B	14.34	-140.78%	0.61%	6.82%	15.82%
EHC	70 Outperform	$10.00B	18.84	24.48%	0.65%	11.13%	27.53%
THC	69 Neutral	$20.40B	12.83	34.82%	―	-0.56%	-53.50%
UHS	66 Neutral	$11.37B	9.31	21.03%	0.35%	10.21%	39.58%
DVA	63 Neutral	$10.34B	10.44	-160.63%	―	5.14%	4.37%
FMS	60 Neutral	$13.18B	12.07	7.13%	3.29%	4.09%	13.17%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%

HCA Healthcare Corporate Events

HCA Healthcare Adopts 2026 Executive Performance Incentive Program

On February 24, 2026, HCA Healthcare’s board compensation committee approved a 2026 Executive Officer Performance Excellence Program that ties senior leaders’ cash incentive awards primarily to EBITDA performance, with 80% of payouts linked to profit targets and 20% tied to quality metrics in areas such as infections, sepsis, complications, mortality, and patient experience. The plan sets target bonus opportunities ranging from 100% to 175% of base salary for named executives, uses threshold-to-maximum payout scales up to 200%, conditions quality payouts on achieving at least 90% of EBITDA targets, and includes broad committee discretion, adjustment, and clawback provisions, while separately, director Robert J. Dennis notified the company on February 20, 2026, that he will retire from the board at the April 23, 2026 annual shareholders’ meeting.

The most recent analyst rating on (HCA) stock is a Buy with a $585.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on HCA Healthcare stock, see the HCA Stock Forecast page.

HCA Healthcare Posts Strong Q4 Results, Boosts Capital Returns

On January 27, 2026, HCA Healthcare reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, with quarterly revenues up 6.7% to $19.5 billion, net income up 30.6% to $1.9 billion and adjusted EBITDA up 10.8% to $4.1 billion, supported by higher same-facility admissions and improved revenue per equivalent admission. For 2025 as a whole, revenues rose to $75.6 billion and net income climbed to $6.8 billion, while the company continued heavy capital investment, absorbed earlier hurricane-related impacts, and managed a sizable debt load alongside robust liquidity. The company’s board authorized a new $10 billion share repurchase program and declared a quarterly dividend of $0.78 per share, underscoring an aggressive capital return strategy after buying back $2.6 billion of stock in the fourth quarter, moves that could bolster shareholder value and signal confidence in ongoing cash generation.

The most recent analyst rating on (HCA) stock is a Buy with a $500.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on HCA Healthcare stock, see the HCA Stock Forecast page.