Centene (CNC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $17.90B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 6.00M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.15
• Revenue Growth: 14.92%
• EPS Growth: -286.72%
• Country: US
• Employees: 60,400
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Healthcare Plans
• EPS (TTM): -1.19
• Shares Outstanding: 491,771,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,330,929
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,003,391
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.01
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.10
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.68
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.05
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.10
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.79
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -3.66
• 1Y Price Target: $44.67
• Price Target Upside: 3.11% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $189.74B

• Rating: 51 Neutral
• Price Target: $37.00 ▼(-14.59% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/11/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/11/26

The score is held back primarily by the TTM earnings reversal and negative margins despite solid revenue growth and improved TTM cash flow. Technicals also remain weak with the stock below key moving averages, while valuation is constrained by a negative P/E and no dividend support. Offsetting these, the latest earnings call provided constructive 2026 guidance (EPS > $3 and improved cost/medical ratios), but with clear execution and volatility risks.

Positive Factors

Consistent Revenue Growth

Sustained top-line growth across Medicaid, Medicare and Marketplace provides scale to negotiate provider contracts, spread administrative costs, and fund care-management programs. Durable revenue expansion supports recovery in margins if medical trend is managed and contracts are retained.

Improved Cash Generation

Rebounding operating and free cash flow improves liquidity and funds strategic actions (deleveraging, tech and AI investments, reserves). Reliable cash conversion cushions earnings volatility and supports durable balance-sheet repair even if profitability lags near term.

Medicare/PDP Enrollment & Revenue Growth

Robust Medicare and PDP expansion diversifies revenue away from volatile Marketplace flows, offers steadier enrollment demographics and better predictable pricing mechanics, and moves MA toward breakeven—structurally supporting margin recovery over the next 2–3 years.

Negative Factors

TTM Profitability Reversal

A recent swing to operating losses and a net loss erodes retained earnings and reduces underwriting cushion, forcing reliance on cash and capital actions. Restoring multi-segment profitability requires sustained medical-cost control and successful execution of management initiatives.

Marketplace Membership & Revenue Decline

Large Marketplace membership and revenue losses shrink scale, raise per-member fixed costs, and compress pretax margins. Structural subsidy and policy shifts reduce a core revenue pool, forcing repricing and reliance on other segments to replace lost volume and profitability.

Clinical Cost Drivers & NSA Volatility

Persistent behavioral-health and specialty drug trends drive structural medical-cost inflation; NSA-related accruals add reserve volatility and litigation risk. Together these create recurring HBR pressure, requiring sustained provider programs, rate engagement with states, and policy outcomes to stabilize margins.

Centene Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Centene Corporation operates as a multi-national healthcare enterprise that provides programs and services to under-insured and uninsured individuals in the United States. Its Managed Care segment offers health plan coverage to individuals through government subsidized programs, including Medicaid, the State children's health insurance program, long-term services and support, foster care, and medicare-medicaid plans, which cover dually eligible individuals, as well as aged, blind, or disabled programs. Its health plans include primary and specialty physician care, inpatient and outpatient hospital care, emergency and urgent care, prenatal care, laboratory and X-ray, home-based primary care, transportation assistance, vision care, dental care, telehealth, immunization, specialty pharmacy, therapy, social work, nurse advisory, and care coordination services, as well as prescriptions and limited over-the-counter drugs, medical equipment, and behavioral health and abuse services. This segment also offers various individual, small group, and large group commercial healthcare products to employers and directly to members. The company's Specialty Services segment provides pharmacy benefits management services; nurse advice line and after-hours support services; vision and dental services, as well as staffing services to correctional systems and other government agencies; and services to Military Health System eligible beneficiaries. This segment offers its services and products to state programs, correctional facilities, healthcare organizations, employer groups, and other commercial organizations. The company provides its services through primary and specialty care physicians, hospitals, and ancillary providers. Centene Corporation was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.

How the Company Makes Money

Centene makes money primarily by administering health benefits for members enrolled in government-sponsored programs and other insurance products. Its core revenue stream is premium revenue: Centene receives a fixed payment (often per member per month) from state Medicaid agencies, the federal government, and individuals (including those receiving ACA subsidies) in exchange for providing coverage and managing members’ medical costs through its provider networks. The company’s profitability depends on its ability to keep total medical costs (claims and medical expenses) and administrative costs below the premium revenue it receives while meeting regulatory and contractual requirements. Key revenue streams include: (1) Medicaid managed care—payments under contracts with states to cover eligible beneficiaries; (2) Medicare—revenue from Medicare Advantage plans and Medicare Part D prescription drug plans; (3) ACA Marketplace—premium revenue from individual exchange plans, with significant influence from government premium subsidies and risk adjustment mechanisms; and (4) other healthcare-related service revenues from subsidiaries that provide functions such as pharmacy benefit management and other support services. Additional income can also include investment income on cash and reserves held to pay future claims and operating expenses. Significant factors that contribute to Centene’s earnings include winning and renewing government contracts, membership growth and retention, accurate pricing of premiums relative to expected medical utilization, effective medical cost management (care management, provider contracting, pharmacy cost control), regulatory rate-setting and reimbursement policies, and the performance of risk adjustment and other program mechanisms in the ACA and Medicare markets. If specific partnership details are required (e.g., named counterparties or contract terms), null.

Centene Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue growth has remained steady, and TTM cash flow rebounded to solid operating and free cash flow. However, TTM profitability deteriorated sharply (negative operating profit and net loss), with margins turning negative after several profitable years, which is the primary financial risk despite manageable leverage.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown steadily over time (2020–2024) and is up again in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), but profitability has deteriorated sharply: TTM shows negative operating profit and a sizable net loss after being profitable in 2021–2024. Margins have compressed meaningfully versus prior years, turning net and operating margins negative in TTM, which raises concerns around cost pressure and earnings volatility despite continued top-line expansion.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable for the sector with debt-to-equity generally in the ~0.7–0.9 range, and equity remains substantial relative to assets. However, profitability on equity has swung from positive in 2020–2024 to materially negative in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), implying the balance sheet is currently supporting a loss-making earnings profile, which weakens overall balance-sheet quality despite moderate leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash generation improved markedly in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with solid operating cash flow and strong free cash flow that rebounded from weak/negative free cash flow in 2024. Free cash flow is positive and growing in TTM, but cash-flow reliability is a watch item given the sharp swing from 2023 strength to 2024 weakness, and the fact that TTM cash flow does not fully offset the reported net loss.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	194.78B	163.07B	154.00B	144.55B	125.98B
Gross Profit	23.83B	16.83B	17.32B	16.66B	14.20B
EBITDA	-5.14B	6.20B	5.62B	4.06B	3.81B
Net Income	-6.67B	3.31B	2.70B	1.20B	1.35B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	77.66B	82.44B	84.64B	76.87B	78.38B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	17.89B	16.68B	19.65B	14.39B	14.66B
Total Debt	18.78B	19.43B	18.88B	21.33B	22.66B
Total Liabilities	57.60B	55.94B	58.69B	52.63B	51.35B
Stockholders Equity	19.95B	26.41B	25.84B	24.06B	26.80B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	4.32B	-490.00M	7.25B	5.26B	3.29B
Operating Cash Flow	5.09B	154.00M	8.05B	6.26B	4.21B
Investing Cash Flow	453.00M	-1.05B	-1.28B	-2.92B	-3.30B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.60B	-2.41B	-1.57B	-4.20B	1.36B

Centene Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 43.32
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CNC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 43.32 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 42.45, above the 50-day MA of 43.18, and above the 200-day MA of 38.90, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.44 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.58 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CNC.

Centene Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CI	76 Outperform	$69.16B	12.29	14.53%	2.21%	16.75%	113.48%
ELV	64 Neutral	$62.39B	13.73	13.01%	1.99%	11.96%	-11.11%
OSCR	61 Neutral	$3.96B	-8.51	-39.45%	―	37.38%	-912.18%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
CNC	51 Neutral	$17.90B	-3.03	-27.74%	―	14.92%	-286.72%
MOH	49 Neutral	$7.28B	18.68	10.99%	―	13.71%	-18.02%
HUM	47 Neutral	$20.94B	25.97	6.59%	1.38%	9.87%	-5.58%

Centene Corporate Events

Centene Reaffirms 2026 Outlook and Redeems Debt Notes

Centene said it will present at the Barclays 28th Annual Global Healthcare Conference on March 10, 2026, where it expects to reaffirm its 2026 full-year GAAP diluted EPS guidance of more than $1.98 and adjusted diluted EPS of more than $3.00, highlighting its reliance on non-GAAP metrics to reflect core operating performance. The company also disclosed that on March 10, 2026, it delivered a notice of partial redemption for $1 billion of its 4.25% notes due December 15, 2027, to be redeemed on March 25, 2026, leaving about $1.19 billion outstanding and signaling ongoing balance sheet and capital structure management.

The most recent analyst rating on (CNC) stock is a Hold with a $42.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Centene stock, see the CNC Stock Forecast page.