Fractyl Health, Inc. (GUTS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $287.79M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.78M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.29
• Revenue Growth: -96.91%
• EPS Growth: 63.11%
• Country: US
• Employees: 107
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.71
• Shares Outstanding: 137,044,430
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,526,420
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,776,972
• PEG Ratio: 0.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.16
• Price to Sales (P/S): 964.47
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.33
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.30
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 29.11K
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -304.27
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.72
• 1Y Price Target: $7.25
• Price Target Upside: 245.24% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.00 ▼(-4.76% Downside)

The score is held back primarily by very weak financial performance (large losses, heavy cash burn, and slightly negative equity). Offsetting this, earnings-call updates point to meaningful clinical progress and funded near-term runway with multiple catalysts, while technicals are neutral-to-modestly supportive and valuation remains pressured due to ongoing losses and no dividend.

Positive Factors

Clinical efficacy of Revita

Randomized sham-controlled results showing incremental weight loss after GLP-1 discontinuation indicate Revita addresses a clear, durable unmet need: post-GLP-1 weight maintenance. Positive pivotal evidence strengthens regulatory submission prospects and supports long-term clinical differentiation and commercial adoption.

Near-term funded runway

Sufficient near-term liquidity into early 2027 reduces immediate financing urgency, enabling the company to complete pivotal REMAIN and REVEAL readouts and potentially pursue a PMA. This funding window materially lowers short-term execution risk while the company pursues registrational milestones and commercialization planning.

Strengthened finance leadership

Bringing an experienced CFO with a track record of financings and scaling medtech/biotech operations should improve capital planning, investor communications, and commercialization readiness. Institutional finance leadership can materially reduce execution risk during pivotal-readout and pre-launch phases.

Negative Factors

Heavy cash burn and negative free cash flow

Sustained high cash burn and negative FCF force repeated external financing, increasing dilution risk and constraining long-term operational flexibility. Without material commercial revenue or sizable non-dilutive funding, cash consumption threatens the company’s ability to execute multi-phase registrational and launch plans beyond the current runway.

Negative stockholders' equity

Negative equity reflects accumulated losses eroding the capital base and can impair access to debt, strategic partnerships, and favorable supplier terms. It signals weakened solvency and may raise counterparty and investor concerns during commercialization and regulatory interactions, reducing strategic optionality.

Minimal and declining revenue base

A collapsing revenue base combined with very large net losses means the business lacks sustainable internal cash generation. Commercial launch delays, reimbursement hurdles, or slower adoption would leave the company highly exposed, increasing the probability of further financing needs and execution risk over the medium term.

Fractyl Health, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Fractyl Health, Inc., a metabolic therapeutics company, develops therapies for the treatment of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and obesity. The company develops Revita DMR System (Revita), an outpatient procedural therapy designed to durably modify duodenal dysfunction, a pathologic consequence of a high fat and high sugar diet, which can initiate T2D and obesity in humans. It also develops Rejuva, a novel virus delivered pancreatic gene therapy platform that is designed to enable long-term remission of T2D and obesity by durably altering metabolic hormone function in the pancreatic islet cells of patients. Fractyl Health, Inc. was formerly known as Fractyl Laboratories Inc. and changed its name to Fractyl Health, Inc. on June 09, 2021. The company was incorporated in 2010 and is based in Lexington, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Fractyl Health generates revenue primarily through the commercialization of its Revita procedure and related technologies. Key revenue streams include the sale of medical devices used in the procedure, as well as potential licensing agreements and collaborations with healthcare facilities and providers. Additionally, the company may receive funding from strategic partnerships with pharmaceutical companies and research institutions that are interested in metabolic health innovations. As the market for metabolic disease treatments continues to grow, Fractyl Health aims to expand its reach and establish a broader presence in the healthcare ecosystem, which will contribute to its earnings over time.

Fractyl Health, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Underlying financial health is very weak: revenue is minimal and fell sharply (TTM ~-82%), losses remain very large (TTM net loss ~$122.2M), and cash burn is heavy (TTM operating cash flow ~-$86.0M; FCF ~-$86.8M). Balance-sheet risk is elevated with stockholders’ equity slightly negative (~-$3.2M), limiting flexibility despite debt being lower than prior years.

Income Statement

The income statement is very weak. Revenue is minimal and declined sharply in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (about -82% vs. the prior period), while losses remain extremely large (TTM net loss of ~$122.2M). Profitability is deeply negative across the board, with gross profit turning negative in TTM, indicating costs materially outweigh the very small revenue base. The only relative positive is that the company reported some revenue in recent years (vs. zero earlier), but it has not translated into improving earnings power.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows meaningful leverage risk and weakened capitalization. Total debt is ~$62.2M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), while stockholders’ equity flipped to slightly negative (about -$3.2M), which is a key red flag and limits financial flexibility. Assets are ~$114.3M, but negative equity suggests accumulated losses have largely eroded the capital base. A modest positive is that debt is far lower than the unusually high levels shown in 2021–2023, but the current negative equity position keeps balance-sheet quality pressured.

Cash Flow

Cash flow is also weak, characterized by heavy cash burn. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is about -$86.0M and free cash flow is about -$86.8M, implying the business is consuming significant cash and likely relies on external funding. Free cash flow is roughly in line with reported losses (free cash flow to net income ~1.01), suggesting accounting losses broadly reflect cash outflows. While free cash flow improved versus the prior period (positive growth), the absolute burn rate remains the central concern.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.00K	93.00K	120.00K	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	-287.00K	43.00K	43.00K	-452.00K	0.00	-770.00K
EBITDA	-120.58M	-92.85M	-50.55M	-48.93M	-36.25M	-28.19M
Net Income	-122.20M	-68.69M	-77.09M	-46.45M	-38.73M	-30.48M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	114.27M	108.08M	76.21M	60.96M	102.55M	34.76M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	77.66M	67.46M	33.52M	49.27M	95.47M	29.11M
Total Debt	62.18M	62.50M	373.72M	306.81M	304.34M	15.29M
Total Liabilities	117.45M	79.65M	401.27M	313.27M	311.87M	19.81M
Stockholders Equity	-3.18M	28.42M	-325.06M	-252.32M	-209.32M	14.95M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-86.81M	-67.29M	-43.18M	-46.30M	-33.51M	-31.07M
Operating Cash Flow	-86.03M	-65.52M	-42.82M	-46.24M	-33.46M	-31.07M
Investing Cash Flow	-787.00K	-1.76M	-359.00K	-56.00K	-51.00K	-2.00K
Financing Cash Flow	79.81M	101.23M	27.44M	4.35M	99.88M	54.39M

Fractyl Health, Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 2.10
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GUTS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.21, above the 50-day MA of 1.75, and above the 200-day MA of 1.51, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GUTS.

Fractyl Health, Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GUTS	53 Neutral	$287.79M	-0.92	-518.40%	―	-96.91%	63.11%
SLS	52 Neutral	$549.83M	-13.45	-84.33%	―	―	59.04%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
IPHA	49 Neutral	$166.14M	-2.91	-271.32%	―	-75.77%	-31.24%
TARA	48 Neutral	$293.78M	―	-49.42%	―	―	48.84%
CHRS	47 Neutral	$184.93M	-0.96	―	―	-72.54%	-19972.15%

Fractyl Health, Inc. Corporate Events

Fractyl Health Appoints New Chief Financial Officer

On December 30, 2025, Fractyl Health’s board appointed Lara Smith Weber as Chief Financial Officer, effective January 12, 2026, succeeding Lisa Davidson, who resigned as CFO effective December 31, 2025, after a decade with the company; Fractyl emphasized that her departure was amicable and not due to any disagreement with management. Smith Weber, a veteran finance executive with experience at Inari, ONWARD Medical and MorphoSys in guiding growth-stage medtech and biotech firms into commercial operations, will become Fractyl’s principal financial and accounting officer and receive a compensation package including salary, bonus eligibility, a sizable four-year vesting stock option grant, and change-in-control severance protections, while Davidson will receive a year of salary, bonus, extended COBRA coverage, accelerated vesting of time-based equity, and a three‑month consulting engagement to support a smooth transition as the company prepares for its next phase of commercial-scale growth in metabolic therapeutics.

The most recent analyst rating on (GUTS) stock is a Buy with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fractyl Health, Inc. stock, see the GUTS Stock Forecast page.

Fractyl Health Announces Catalyst-Rich Clinical and Funding Outlook

On January 5, 2026, Fractyl Health outlined a catalyst-heavy 2026 plan centered on progressing Revita through pivotal validation in post-GLP-1 weight maintenance and advancing its Rejuva gene therapy platform toward first-in-human testing in inadequately controlled type 2 diabetes. The company reported preliminary, unaudited cash and cash equivalents of about $81.5 million as of December 31, 2025, rising to approximately $85.6 million after warrant exercises on January 2, 2026, and said this should fund operations into early 2027, supporting a dense slate of clinical and regulatory milestones. For Revita, key 2026 events are expected to include six-month randomized REMAIN-1 Midpoint data in late January, completion of randomization for the REMAIN-1 pivotal cohort in early 2026, one-year REVEAL-1 and REMAIN-1 Midpoint readouts in the second and third quarters, and topline six-month pivotal data with a potential PMA submission in the second half of 2026. In parallel, Fractyl plans to seek regulatory feedback on its RJVA-001 gene therapy Clinical Trial Applications in the second quarter and to begin first-in-human dosing with preliminary data in the second half of 2026, steps that could strengthen its position in the emerging market for durable obesity and diabetes treatments, though all financial figures remain preliminary and subject to audit.

The most recent analyst rating on (GUTS) stock is a Hold with a $2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fractyl Health, Inc. stock, see the GUTS Stock Forecast page.

Fractyl Health Calls Tranche A Warrants

On December 15, 2025, Fractyl Health announced the call of its Tranche A Common Stock Purchase Warrants, initially issued during its August 2025 public offering. The company achieved the necessary clinical and trading milestones, allowing warrant holders to exercise their options at $1.05 per share until December 30, 2025. If all warrants are exercised, Fractyl could gain approximately $17.9 million in gross proceeds, which would bolster its financial position as it progresses with its clinical programs.

The most recent analyst rating on (GUTS) stock is a Hold with a $2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fractyl Health, Inc. stock, see the GUTS Stock Forecast page.

Fractyl Health Announces Positive REVEAL-1 Study Results

On December 2, 2025, Fractyl Health announced positive results from its REVEAL-1 Cohort study, showing that participants maintained stable weight and glycemic control six months after discontinuing GLP-1 therapy and undergoing a single Revita procedure. The study highlights Revita’s potential as a first-in-class therapy for post-GLP-1 weight maintenance, with no serious adverse events reported. The company is advancing towards multiple clinical readouts in 2026, indicating significant progress in its REMAIN weight maintenance program.

The most recent analyst rating on (GUTS) stock is a Hold with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fractyl Health, Inc. stock, see the GUTS Stock Forecast page.