Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. Class A (GRDN)
NYSE:GRDN
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Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. Class A
(NYSE:GRDN)
Select Model
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$41.00
▲(2.42% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:03/31/26
The score is driven primarily by strengthening fundamentals (notably improved balance sheet and strong cash generation) and supportive technical uptrend. These positives are tempered by premium valuation (P/E ~38) and the key fundamental risk of earnings volatility, while the latest earnings call adds confidence via raised 2026 EBITDA guidance despite acknowledged policy and margin headwinds.
Positive Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
Leverage fell markedly by 2025, leaving the company with a conservative capital structure and a larger equity base. Lower debt reduces interest burden and liquidity strain, increasing resilience to industry shocks and providing durable optionality for disciplined M&A or investment over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Policy/IRA Headwind
The IRA introduces sustained pricing and reimbursement pressure; management specifically flagged a sizable, multi‑year branded drug negotiation impact. This structural policy risk can compress revenue and margin visibility, forcing ongoing cost or strategy responses over multiple fiscal years.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
Leverage fell markedly by 2025, leaving the company with a conservative capital structure and a larger equity base. Lower debt reduces interest burden and liquidity strain, increasing resilience to industry shocks and providing durable optionality for disciplined M&A or investment over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. Class A (GRDN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.58B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)348.83K
Price to Earnings (P/E)38.1
Beta (1Y)0.68
Revenue Growth18.68%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees3,400
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Distribution
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.37
Shares Outstanding37,273,743
10 Day Avg. Volume450,542
30 Day Avg. Volume348,833
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.26
Price to Book (P/B)9.12
Price to Sales (P/S)1.30
P/FCF Ratio23.26
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.98
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.74
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.92
Enterprise Value/Ebitda24.48
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$39.33Price Target Upside-1.75% Downside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)1.24
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.41B
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc., a pharmacy service company, provides a suite of technology-enabled services designed to help residents of long-term health care facilities (LTCFs) in the United States. Its individualized clinical, drug dispensing...
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple strong operating and financial achievements—solid organic and reported revenue growth, meaningful adjusted EBITDA expansion, improved gross margins, strong cash generation, measurable clinical impact, and raised 2026 EBITDA guidance. Management acknowledged material industry headwinds from the IRA, one-time favorable Q4 variability, margin drag from early-stage acquisitions and greenfields, and ongoing operational complexity from new Medicare processes. Overall, the company appears to be executing well, generating cash, and positioning to offset near-term policy impacts, while remaining cautious and disciplined on M&A amid industry disruption.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Full-year 2025 reported revenue grew 18% (including acquisitions) with organic revenue growth of 13%; fourth-quarter revenue rose 17% year-over-year to $397.6M (12% organic in Q4).
Negative Updates
IRA-Related Pricing and Operational Headwinds
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) introduced pricing/reimbursement pressure and operational complexity (Medicare Transaction Facilitator); management noted a material policy shift and expects additional branded drug negotiation impacts in 2027 (~$65M revenue headwind).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue Growth
Full-year 2025 reported revenue grew 18% (including acquisitions) with organic revenue growth of 13%; fourth-quarter revenue rose 17% year-over-year to $397.6M (12% organic in Q4).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $120–$124 million (building on a $115 million adjusted EBITDA in 2025 and an exit-2025 run rate of about $110 million) while maintaining revenue guidance of $1.40–$1.42 billion, implying an adjusted EBITDA margin near ~8.6% at the midpoint; they said quarterly revenue/EBITDA cadence should resemble 2025 with vaccine seasonality weighted to Q4. For 2026 they expect D&A of roughly $21 million, stock‑based compensation to step up to about $3 million per quarter, an effective tax rate near 26%, and they do not include future acquisitions in the outlook; they also excluded the one‑time favorable Q4 variability from the base and said they expect to offset the IRA’s 2026 EBITDA impact. Looking further out, management flagged an estimated ~$65 million revenue headwind from additional branded drug negotiations in 2027.Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.45B | 1.23B | 1.05B | 908.91M | 792.07M |
| Gross Profit | 282.04M | 244.37M | 208.31M | 185.87M | 161.26M |
| EBITDA | 111.25M | -43.43M | 58.81M | 68.15M | 46.49M |
| Net Income | 49.22M | -87.29M | 23.90M | 35.42M | 16.31M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 412.66M | 320.81M | 271.17M | 256.11M | 235.85M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 65.62M | 4.66M | 752.00K | 607.00K | 15.01M |
| Total Debt | 44.72M | 37.33M | 69.15M | 62.98M | 55.04M |
| Total Liabilities | 194.73M | 170.83M | 211.31M | 180.18M | 182.53M |
| Stockholders Equity | 205.76M | 142.67M | 28.21M | 42.73M | 23.93M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 80.71M | 41.59M | 56.26M | 31.75M | 49.22M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 100.29M | 57.96M | 70.82M | 48.52M | 58.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -32.26M | -30.41M | -13.44M | -17.90M | -13.15M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -7.07M | -23.64M | -57.23M | -45.03M | -36.79M |
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. Class A Technical Analysis
Positive
40.03
Price Trends
34.06
Positive
31.99
Positive
28.24
Positive
Market Momentum
1.53
Negative
69.96
Neutral
87.75
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GRDN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 40.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.97, above the 50-day MA of 34.06, and above the 200-day MA of 28.24, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.53 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.75 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GRDN.
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. Class A Risk Analysis
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. Class A disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. Class A reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $2.58B | 38.14 | 25.85% | ― | 18.68% | ― | |
68 Neutral | $106.71B | 21.30 | -245.27% | 0.37% | 17.23% | 66.17% | |
65 Neutral | $50.62B | 25.74 | -58.93% | 0.98% | 4.37% | 28.48% | |
65 Neutral | $8.66B | 23.11 | 11.92% | ― | 3.51% | 29.65% | |
64 Neutral | $63.21B | 29.30 | 101.43% | 0.66% | 9.31% | 5.92% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
GRDN
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. Class A
40.03
18.54
86.27%
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MCK
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Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. Class A Corporate Events
Delistings and Listing ChangesPrivate Placements and FinancingStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Guardian Pharmacy Services Ends Controlled Company Status on NYSE
Positive
Mar 23, 2026
On March 18, 2026, Guardian Pharmacy Services entered into stock purchase agreements with certain Class A shareholders, enabling the company to repurchase up to 1,833,344 shares in private transactions at prices tied to future underwritten offerin...
M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Guardian Pharmacy Reaffirms 2025 Outlook, Issues 2026 Guidance
Positive
Jan 13, 2026
Guardian Pharmacy Services, a major U.S. long-term care pharmacy operator, reaffirmed its 2025 revenue guidance of $1.43 billion to $1.45 billion and adjusted EBITDA guidance of $104 million to $106 million, while issuing an initial 2026 outlook t...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.