Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. Class A (GRDN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.08B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 348.83K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 51.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.63
• Revenue Growth: 18.68%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,400
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Distribution
• EPS (TTM): 0.25
• Shares Outstanding: 36,253,742
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 450,542
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 348,833
• PEG Ratio: 0.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 8.81
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.02
• P/FCF Ratio: 30.20
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.02
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.53
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.73
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 25.80
• 1Y Price Target: $35.50
• Price Target Upside: 7.45% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $30.00 ▼(-9.20% Downside)

GRDN scores well on improving fundamentals (steady revenue growth, strong cash flow, modest leverage) and supportive technical uptrend. The main constraint is valuation (high P/E) alongside ongoing risk from earnings/margin volatility and regulatory pressure despite upbeat guidance.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Guardian's strong revenue growth, fueled by organic expansion and acquisitions, indicates robust market demand and effective business strategies.

Strategic Acquisitions

Strategic acquisitions in new regions enhance Guardian's market position and growth potential, supporting long-term revenue and market share expansion.

Cash Generation

Strong cash generation provides financial flexibility, enabling Guardian to invest in growth opportunities and manage potential financial challenges.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

Significant leverage without equity raises concerns about financial stability and limits the company's ability to absorb economic shocks.

Operational Inefficiencies

Inefficiencies impacting profitability suggest potential challenges in cost management and operational execution, affecting long-term margins.

Regulatory Challenges

Regulatory uncertainties can disrupt operations and increase compliance costs, posing risks to Guardian's strategic execution and profitability.

Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc., a pharmacy service company, provides a suite of technology-enabled services designed to help residents of long-term health care facilities (LTCFs) in the United States. Its individualized clinical, drug dispensing, and administration capabilities are used to serve the needs of residents in lower acuity LTCFs, such as assisted living facilities and behavioral health facilities and group homes. The company's Guardian Compass includes dashboards created using data from its data warehouse to help its local pharmacies plan, track, and optimize their business operations; and GuardianShield Programs for LTCFs. The company was founded in 2003 and is based in Atlanta, Georgia.

How the Company Makes Money

Guardian Pharmacy Services generates revenue through multiple key streams. The primary source of income comes from the dispensing of prescription medications and over-the-counter products to long-term care facilities, where they have established contracts to serve as the preferred pharmacy provider. Additionally, the company earns fees from medication management services, which include consulting and compliance support for healthcare providers. Significant partnerships with healthcare organizations and payers enhance revenue stability, while the growing demand for specialized pharmacy services in the aging population drives further growth in earnings. By leveraging technology and optimizing pharmacy operations, Guardian Pharmacy also aims to reduce costs and increase efficiency, contributing positively to its revenue model.

Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. Class A Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue has grown steadily with stable gross margin (~20%), and cash generation is a clear strength with positive free cash flow even during the 2024 loss. Balance sheet leverage is modest and improving, but earnings have been volatile (sharp 2024 downturn followed by TTM recovery), keeping the score below top-tier.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded steadily from 2020–2024, and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is higher again, supported by stable gross margin near ~20% over the full period. Profitability, however, has been volatile: 2024 swung to a meaningful loss (negative operating profit and net margin), followed by a clear rebound to positive earnings in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) with mid-single-digit operating profit and ~3% net margin. Overall, the top-line trajectory is constructive, but the 2024 disruption and still-modest net margins keep the score below top-tier.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears manageable and improving, with total debt down versus 2023 and debt-to-equity declining from 2024 to TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (roughly ~0.26x to ~0.19x). Equity has increased materially (2023 to 2024 to TTM), supporting a stronger capital base. Return on equity is strong in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) after being deeply negative in 2024, highlighting the same earnings volatility seen on the income statement. Net: balance sheet looks reasonably healthy with modest leverage, but profitability swings are a key risk.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength: operating cash flow and free cash flow are solid in both 2024 and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with a sharp TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) free-cash-flow rebound versus 2024. Free cash flow remains positive across all periods provided and generally tracks earnings quality well, with free cash flow running at roughly 65%–85% of net income in profitable years (and still positive even when 2024 net income was negative). The main weakness is some year-to-year variability in growth, but overall cash conversion and consistency are favorable.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.39B	1.23B	1.05B	908.91M	792.07M	735.96M
Gross Profit	274.32M	244.37M	208.31M	185.87M	161.26M	147.00M
EBITDA	82.19M	-43.43M	58.81M	68.15M	46.49M	49.07M
Net Income	40.24M	-87.29M	23.90M	35.42M	16.31M	19.94M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	390.04M	320.81M	271.17M	256.11M	235.85M	217.87M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	36.49M	4.66M	752.00K	607.00K	15.01M	6.45M
Total Debt	34.08M	37.33M	69.15M	62.98M	55.04M	58.84M
Total Liabilities	194.54M	170.83M	211.31M	180.18M	182.53M	150.80M
Stockholders Equity	183.76M	142.67M	28.21M	42.73M	23.93M	38.48M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	68.17M	41.59M	56.26M	31.75M	49.22M	44.27M
Operating Cash Flow	87.99M	57.96M	70.82M	48.52M	58.50M	52.61M
Investing Cash Flow	-34.14M	-30.41M	-13.44M	-17.90M	-13.15M	-12.18M
Financing Cash Flow	-54.59M	-23.64M	-57.23M	-45.03M	-36.79M	-34.26M

Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. Class A Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 33.04
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GRDN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 33.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.11, above the 50-day MA of 31.05, and above the 200-day MA of 26.20, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.79 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GRDN.

Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. Class A Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MCK	74 Outperform	$115.99B	27.24	―	0.37%	17.23%	66.17%
CAH	73 Outperform	$52.94B	32.38	―	0.98%	4.37%	28.48%
HSIC	73 Outperform	$9.19B	24.27	11.39%	―	3.51%	29.65%
GRDN	70 Outperform	$2.08B	51.91	25.85%	―	18.68%	―
COR	66 Neutral	$70.08B	43.33	152.25%	0.66%	9.31%	5.92%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%

Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. Class A Corporate Events

Guardian Pharmacy Reaffirms 2025 Outlook, Issues 2026 Guidance

Guardian Pharmacy Services, a major U.S. long-term care pharmacy operator, reaffirmed its 2025 revenue guidance of $1.43 billion to $1.45 billion and adjusted EBITDA guidance of $104 million to $106 million, while issuing an initial 2026 outlook that anticipates revenue of $1.40 billion to $1.42 billion after the impact of Inflation Reduction Act drug-pricing reforms and wholesale acquisition cost reductions. Despite the expected top-line pressure from these mandatory pricing changes, the company projects 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $115 million to $118 million—about 11% year-on-year growth and implying an adjusted EBITDA margin above 8%—and highlighted that its strengthened operating model should allow it to maintain its low double-digit adjusted EBITDA growth trajectory without altering its approach to resident care or facility support; Guardian also disclosed it had completed the year-end acquisition of a single pharmacy in Montana, extending its geographic footprint into a new territory in line with its expansion strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (GRDN) stock is a Hold with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. Class A stock, see the GRDN Stock Forecast page.