GeoPark (GPRK) AI Stock Analysis

197 Followers

Top Page

GeoPark

(NYSE:GPRK)

65Neutral

GeoPark's overall score reflects a balance between strong cash flow, attractive valuation, and strategic growth against challenges in revenue decline and high leverage. The company shows resilience in strategic acquisitions and sustainability, but technical indicators suggest caution in the short term.

GeoPark (GPRK) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$337.62M

Dividend Yield10.07%

Average Volume (3M)849.76K

Price to Earnings (P/E)3.6

Beta (1Y)0.75

Revenue Growth-12.66%

EPS Growth-7.08%

CountryUS

Employees470

SectorEnergy

Sector Strength52

IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.82

Shares Outstanding51,309,776

10 Day Avg. Volume880,513

30 Day Avg. Volume849,759

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)2.15

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)1.00

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$14.50

Price Target Upside120.36% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering1

GeoPark Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGeoPark Limited engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas reserves in Chile, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, and Ecuador. As of December 31, 2021, the company had working and/or economic interests in 42 hydrocarbons blocks. It had net proved reserves of 87.8 million barrels of oil equivalent. GeoPark Limited has a strategic partnership with ONGC Videsh to jointly acquire, invest in, and create value from upstream oil and gas projects across Latin America. The company was formerly known as GeoPark Holdings Limited and changed its name to GeoPark Limited in July 2013. GeoPark Limited was founded in 2002 and is based in Bogotá, Colombia.

How the Company Makes MoneyGeoPark generates revenue primarily through the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas. The company monetizes its hydrocarbon reserves by selling crude oil, natural gas, and other related products to a variety of customers, including national oil companies, refineries, and other energy firms. GeoPark's key revenue streams come from the sale of these commodities, which are often influenced by global oil and gas prices. Additionally, the company may enter into joint ventures or strategic partnerships to enhance its operational capabilities and expand its market reach. Factors such as production volume, commodity prices, operational efficiency, and cost management significantly contribute to GeoPark's earnings.

GeoPark Financial Statement Overview

Summary

GeoPark exhibits operational efficiencies and strong cash flow generation. However, challenges in revenue decline and high leverage are significant concerns. The financial stability is compromised by high debt levels and a low equity base, which pose risks during downturns.

Income Statement

Positive

GeoPark's income statement reveals mixed performance. The Gross Profit Margin for the most recent year is approximately 75.2%, indicating strong cost management relative to revenue. However, there is a notable decrease in total revenue from $756.6 million in 2023 to $660.8 million in 2024, reflecting a revenue decline of about 12.7%. Net Profit Margin stands at 14.6%, suggesting moderate profitability given the industry's volatile environment. EBIT and EBITDA Margins are solid at 41.4% and 63.4% respectively, showing efficiency in operations despite revenue challenges.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet indicates some financial stability concerns. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio is elevated at 2.53, highlighting significant leverage and potential risk if earnings do not improve. Return on Equity is relatively high at 47.4%, but this is driven by a low equity base, which implies financial risk. The Equity Ratio is 16.9%, indicating a reliance on debt financing with limited equity cushioning, which could pose challenges during downturns.

Cash Flow

Positive

GeoPark's cash flow statement shows healthy cash generation. Operating Cash Flow of $471 million is robust, with an Operating Cash Flow to Net Income ratio of 4.89, suggesting strong cash earnings quality. Free Cash Flow has increased substantially by 174.5%, improving liquidity. However, the Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 2.9, indicating efficient cash conversion, which is a positive sign for financial flexibility.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
660.80M	756.63M	1.05B	688.54M	393.69M
	Gross Profit
496.80M	403.37M	593.10M	386.78M	150.55M
	EBIT
273.50M	270.91M	429.10M	298.93M	61.03M
	EBITDA
419.00M	381.26M	548.67M	281.48M	-2.43M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
96.40M	111.07M	224.44M	61.13M	-232.95M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
276.80M	133.04M	128.80M	101.47M	201.94M
	Total Assets
1.20B	1.02B	974.00M	895.74M	960.27M
	Total Debt
514.30M	533.28M	497.60M	694.84M	806.93M
	Net Debt
237.50M	400.24M	368.80M	594.23M	605.03M
	Total Liabilities
996.80M	840.53M	858.40M	957.69M	1.07B
	Stockholders Equity
203.30M	176.02M	115.60M	-61.95M	-109.19M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
279.70M	101.90M	298.69M	87.52M	93.40M
	Operating Cash Flow
471.00M	300.94M	467.50M	216.78M	168.70M
	Investing Cash Flow
-226.90M	-198.59M	-153.70M	-126.56M	-347.63M
	Financing Cash Flow
-99.20M	-98.72M	-286.55M	-190.44M	271.14M

GeoPark Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price6.58

Price Trends

50DMA

8.06

Negative

100DMA

8.86

Negative

200DMA

8.69

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.10

Negative

RSI

49.24

Neutral

STOCH

56.71

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GPRK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.58 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.52, below the 50-day MA of 8.06, and below the 200-day MA of 8.69, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GPRK.

GeoPark Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (57)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EC	77 Outperform	$18.32B	5.02	18.70%	17.55%	-1.24%	-16.75%
YPF	76 Outperform	$14.23B	4.93	22.65%	―	7.35%	―
MUR	74 Outperform	$3.31B	8.60	7.77%	6.24%	-12.48%	-36.47%
SM	71 Outperform	$2.50B	3.27	19.62%	3.73%	13.33%	-2.72%
GPRK	65 Neutral	$337.62M	3.58	50.82%	10.07%	-12.66%	-7.08%
PBR	65 Neutral	$75.87B	11.60	10.52%	23.04%	-10.81%	-70.65%
Sector *	57 Neutral	$7.68B	4.29	-3.52%	6.80%	-0.14%	-64.60%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

GPRK

GeoPark

6.04

-3.16

-34.35%

Ecopetrol SA

8.23

-2.57

-23.80%

MUR

Murphy Oil

19.97

-26.05

-56.61%

PBR

Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras

11.30

-2.02

-15.17%

SM Energy

21.24

-29.59

-58.21%

YPF

YPF Sociedad Anonima

27.58

5.97

27.63%

GeoPark Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Mar 5, 2025 | % Change Since: -12.38% | Next Earnings Date: May 14, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call reflected a mix of achievements and challenges for GeoPark in 2024. The company achieved significant milestones with a record shareholder return, strategic acquisitions, and sustainability recognitions. However, these were tempered by production declines, delayed acquisition closures, and decreased financial performance. The sentiment is balanced, reflecting both positive strategic advancements and operational challenges.

Highlights

Record Shareholder Cash Return

GeoPark delivered the highest annual shareholder cash return in the company's history with almost $74 million through dividends and buyback, representing a record annual shareholder cash return of around 14% yield.

Strategic Acquisition in Vaca Muerta

GeoPark made a significant acquisition in Vaca Muerta, which extended reserves life and increased production by 19% in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to the third quarter.

Sustainability Achievements

GeoPark was included in the S&P Sustainability Yearbook for the first time and maintained its AA rating in the MSC Index, highlighting its position as a global sustainability leader.

Financial Stability and Flexibility

GeoPark ended the year with $276.8 million in cash and maintained a net leverage of 0.9 times, well below its long-term target, with no material debt commitments due until 2030.

Exploration Success

A transformational discovery in the Confluencia block in Vaca Muerta, with two out of three wells ranking in the top eight producing wells in the entire basin over the last 90 days.

Strong Reserve Growth

Pro forma 2P reserves increased by 41% year-on-year to nearly over 160 million barrels, driven by the addition of 74.6 million barrels from the Vaca Muerta assets.

Lowlights

Production Decline

Total oil and gas production for 2024 averaged almost 34,000 barrels a day, 7% less than 2023, due to temporary production disruptions and a natural decline in main fields in Colombia.

Delayed Acquisition Closure

The closing of the acquisition in Argentina is taking longer than expected, impacting the ability to report consolidated production and financial figures for 2024.

Lower Financial Performance

Full-year 2024 adjusted EBITDA decreased by 8% compared to 2023, and net income was 13% lower than 2023 due to lower production, lower revenues, and a higher effective tax rate.

Company Guidance

During the GeoPark Limited conference call, CEO Andres Ocampo reported notable achievements for fiscal year 2024, including a game-changing acquisition in Vaca Muerta, which extended reserves life and increased production significantly. The company's total oil and gas production averaged nearly 34,000 barrels per day, a 7% decrease from 2023 due to temporary disruptions and natural declines in Colombia. However, Vaca Muerta assets alone delivered over 15,000 barrels per day in Q4, a 19% increase from Q3. The acquisition added 74.6 million barrels to their 2P reserves, resulting in a 41% year-on-year increase and extending the reserve life index to 13 years. GeoPark's full-year adjusted EBITDA reached $416 million, an 8% drop from 2023, attributed to lower production and one-off financial expenses. The company maintained a strong capital efficiency ratio of 2.2 times adjusted EBITDA, with net income at $96.4 million. GeoPark ended the year with $276.8 million in cash and a net leverage of 0.9 times, well below their long-term target. They achieved a record shareholder cash return of $74 million, reflecting a 14% yield, and declared a quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share. Looking ahead to 2025, GeoPark plans to enhance recovery and productivity in Colombia and continue development in Vaca Muerta, aiming for a gross plateau production of 40,000 barrels per day.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.