Greentree Hospitality Group (GHG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $176.65M
• Dividend Yield: 2.85%
• Average Volume (3M): 59.82K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.85
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,339
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Travel Lodging
• EPS (TTM): 0.29
• Shares Outstanding: 66,780,610
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 50,718
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 59,818
• PEG Ratio: -0.29
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.30
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.41
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.46
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 9.30
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.76
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.04
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.52
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.00 ▲(20.48% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by weakening operating momentum (sharp TTM revenue decline, compressed EBIT) and deteriorating free cash flow quality, alongside a bearish technical setup (below major moving averages and negative MACD). A moderate P/E and ~3.1% dividend yield partially offset these risks.

Positive Factors

Large scale and pipeline

A substantial network and a 1,248-hotel development pipeline provide durable scale advantages: recurring franchise/management fee potential, stronger distribution, bargaining power with OTAs and suppliers, and a clear growth runway to rebuild revenue over the next 2–6 months.

Profitability recovery

Return to positive margins and EBITDA after prior losses indicates operational resilience and cost structure improvements. Sustained mid-teens net margins support internal funding for operations and modest reinvestment, making earnings less fragile as demand normalizes.

Positive cash generation

Ongoing positive operating and free cash flow, even if weakened, underpins the company's ability to service debt, fund the development pipeline and pay dividends. This cash-generation base provides a durable buffer versus purely accounting profits.

Negative Factors

Sharp revenue decline

A sustained ~25% revenue decline materially reduces operating leverage and threatens margin sustainability. If demand or ADRs remain weak, the company may struggle to cover fixed costs, delaying payback on its pipeline and pressuring medium‑term profitability.

Elevated leverage

Debt near parity with equity constrains financial flexibility and increases refinancing and interest-rate vulnerability. With weaker revenue and cash conversion, leverage magnifies downside risk and limits the firm's ability to fund expansion from internal resources.

Weakened free cash flow quality

A ~70% drop in FCF and low cash conversion mean reported profits are less reliable for funding growth or debt service. Persistent working-capital drag or heavy reinvestment undermines self-funding of the pipeline and raises dependence on external financing.

Greentree Hospitality Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd., through its subsidiaries, develops leased-and-operated, and franchised-and-managed hotels under the GreenTree brand in the People's Republic of China. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 66 leased-and-operated hotels with 7,064 rooms; and had franchised-and-managed hotels network consisting of 4,593 hotels with 330,089 rooms covering 367 cities in China, and an additional 1,225 hotels with 91,887 rooms that were contracted for or under development. The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China. GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. is a subsidiary of GreenTree Inns Hotel Management Group, Inc.

How the Company Makes Money

Greentree Hospitality Group generates revenue primarily through its hotel operations, which include room bookings, food and beverage services, and additional guest services. The company's revenue model is based on a combination of franchise and management fees from its network of hotels, as well as direct income from owned properties. Key revenue streams include occupancy rates, average daily rates (ADR), and ancillary services such as event hosting and catering. GHG has established significant partnerships with travel agencies, online booking platforms, and corporate clients, which contribute to its earnings by driving bookings and enhancing brand visibility in the competitive hospitality market.

Greentree Hospitality Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Greentree Hospitality Group faces challenges in revenue growth and cash flow generation, with increased leverage posing potential risks. However, the company demonstrates operational efficiency through positive EBIT and EBITDA margins and improved return on equity.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a mixed performance. The company has experienced a decline in revenue growth, with a negative growth rate of -2.9% in the TTM period. Gross profit margin and net profit margin have decreased over time, indicating pressure on profitability. However, the company has managed to maintain positive EBIT and EBITDA margins, suggesting operational efficiency. The decline in revenue and margins is a concern, but the ability to generate positive EBIT and EBITDA is a positive sign.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a moderate level of financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio has increased over time, reaching 1.07 in the TTM period, indicating higher leverage. Return on equity has improved to 12.06%, showing better utilization of equity. However, the equity ratio remains relatively low, suggesting a higher reliance on debt financing. The increase in leverage poses a risk, but the improvement in ROE is a positive aspect.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges in free cash flow growth, with a decline of -12.0% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is relatively low at 0.27, indicating limited cash conversion efficiency. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.67, showing some ability to generate cash from operations. The decline in free cash flow growth and low cash conversion ratios are concerns, but the company still maintains positive cash flow generation.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	932.02M	1.34B	1.63B	945.14M	1.97B	930.01M
Gross Profit	325.96M	520.85M	679.82M	351.12M	554.77M	537.49M
EBITDA	121.61M	319.26M	511.30M	-350.84M	330.12M	385.12M
Net Income	133.87M	110.00M	269.32M	-425.15M	88.71M	261.34M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.18B	4.95B	5.07B	5.10B	4.73B	4.09B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.64B	1.49B	1.21B	873.49M	1.01B	1.16B
Total Debt	1.70B	1.71B	1.83B	2.25B	708.00M	150.00M
Total Liabilities	3.45B	3.45B	3.59B	3.61B	2.60B	1.85B
Stockholders Equity	1.70B	1.46B	1.44B	1.61B	1.95B	2.10B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	63.74M	293.76M	366.55M	212.59M	-200.29M	184.49M
Operating Cash Flow	323.56M	373.38M	455.05M	281.71M	360.98M	297.30M
Investing Cash Flow	-115.57M	345.39M	-93.71M	438.96M	-928.39M	-115.60M
Financing Cash Flow	-70.64M	10.53M	-303.73M	-341.90M	240.33M	117.53M

Greentree Hospitality Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 1.66
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GHG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1.66 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.74, below the 50-day MA of 1.84, and below the 200-day MA of 2.03, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GHG.

Greentree Hospitality Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ATAT	75 Outperform	$5.80B	27.16	45.85%	1.76%	36.17%	25.41%
HTHT	74 Outperform	$15.25B	28.61	32.28%	3.60%	5.70%	9.53%
WH	67 Neutral	$6.06B	18.68	57.98%	2.13%	3.38%	38.04%
CHH	63 Neutral	$4.88B	13.27	1418.13%	1.32%	2.76%	56.02%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
GHG	53 Neutral	$176.65M	11.23	―	2.85%	―	―
SHCO	42 Neutral	$1.59B	-20.28	―	―	8.09%	43.02%

Greentree Hospitality Group Corporate Events

GreenTree Hospitality Posts Lower Q3 2025 Revenue as Hotel and Restaurant Metrics Weaken

On December 23, 2025, GreenTree Hospitality Group reported unaudited results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, showing a 15.0% year-on-year decline in total revenue to RMB303.6 million, as softer hotel and restaurant metrics weighed on performance despite a large operating footprint of 4,533 hotels and 185 restaurants. Income from operations fell to RMB70.1 million and net income slipped to RMB60.3 million versus a year earlier, while Adjusted EBITDA declined 6.1%, reflecting lower average daily room rates, occupancy and RevPAR in hotels and sharply weaker average checks and sales per store in restaurants, partially offset by a 3.8% increase in operating cash flow and a sizable development pipeline of 1,248 contracted or in-development hotels that underpins future network growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (GHG) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greentree Hospitality Group stock, see the GHG Stock Forecast page.