Greentree Hospitality Group Ltd (GHG)
NYSE:GHG
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Greentree Hospitality Group
(NYSE:GHG)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$1.50
▼(-9.64% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/01/26
The score is driven by mixed financial performance (profitability recovery but weakening revenue, margin compression, and a sharp 2025 free-cash-flow drop with still-elevated leverage). Technicals are notably weak with the stock below all key moving averages and negative MACD, while valuation is a clear positive with a low P/E and high dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Profitability Recovery
Sustained return to positive EBIT and net income across 2023–2025 indicates the core hospitality operations are capable of covering operating costs and generating accounting profits. This improves ability to fund reinvestment, maintain service levels, and support debt servicing over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Revenue Decline
Two consecutive years of revenue decline erode the base for percentage-based franchise and management fees and limit operating leverage. Persistent top-line weakness can compress margins, slow network monetization and hinder long-term growth even if profitability temporarily recovers.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Profitability Recovery
Sustained return to positive EBIT and net income across 2023–2025 indicates the core hospitality operations are capable of covering operating costs and generating accounting profits. This improves ability to fund reinvestment, maintain service levels, and support debt servicing over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Greentree Hospitality Group (GHG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$125.89M
Dividend Yield2.85%
Average Volume (3M)59.82K
Price to Earnings (P/E)51.5
Beta (1Y)0.89
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees2,339
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryTravel Lodging
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.50
Shares Outstanding66,780,610
10 Day Avg. Volume50,718
30 Day Avg. Volume59,818
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.65
Price to Book (P/B)0.76
Price to Sales (P/S)7.83
P/FCF Ratio59.54
Enterprise Value/Market Cap5.34
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.73
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.91
Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.69
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)4.29
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.71B
Greentree Hospitality Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd., through its subsidiaries, develops leased-and-operated, and franchised-and-managed hotels under the GreenTree brand in the People's Republic of China. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 66 leased-and-operated ho...
How the Company Makes Money
GHG makes money primarily by expanding and monetizing a hotel network through a mix of owned/leased-and-operated hotels and franchised/managed hotels. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) room and ancillary revenue from hotels that GHG direc...
Greentree Hospitality Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 13, 2025
(Q4-2024)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment. While there are significant strategic expansions and improvements in cash flow and membership growth, these are overshadowed by declines in revenue and profitability in both the Hotel and Restaurant segments. The strategic shift in the Restaurant business and focus on mid to upscale hotels are positive, but the revenue and RevPAR declines present challenges.Positive Updates
Expansion Plans for 2025
GreenTree plans to open 480 new hotels in 2025, marking a 20% increase from 2024. This expansion is part of their strategic focus on the mid to upscale segments and rejuvenating their existing portfolio.
Negative Updates
Decline in RevPAR and Revenue
Hotel RevPAR decreased by 9.6% and total revenue fell by 18.2% to RMB 304 million due to the closure of 12 hotels and lower performance metrics.
Read all updates
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive
Negative
Expansion Plans for 2025
GreenTree plans to open 480 new hotels in 2025, marking a 20% increase from 2024. This expansion is part of their strategic focus on the mid to upscale segments and rejuvenating their existing portfolio.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the GreenTree Hospitality Group Limited Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2024 Financial Results Conference Call, the company provided guidance for the upcoming fiscal year 2025. They plan to open approximately 480 new hotels, reflecting a 20% increase from 405 in 2024, while closing about 200 hotels, resulting in a net addition of 280 hotels. For the Restaurant business, GreenTree aims to open 60 new restaurants, focusing on Franchised and Managed Street stores. The company expects total revenues of their Organic Hotel business for 2025 to be flat compared to 2024, with RevPAR anticipated to remain stable after a 5% decline in the first quarter. Additionally, the company highlighted strategic efforts to rejuvenate and upgrade their hotel portfolio by summer 2026 and continue the phased closure of leased and managed hotels in lower-tier cities.Greentree Hospitality Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
54
Neutral
Cash Flow
49
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 152.66M | 1.34B | 1.63B | 945.14M | 1.97B |
| Gross Profit | 53.27M | 520.85M | 679.82M | 351.12M | 554.77M |
| EBITDA | 28.35M | 319.26M | 511.30M | -350.84M | 330.12M |
| Net Income | 23.20M | 110.00M | 269.32M | -425.15M | 88.71M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.79B | 4.95B | 5.07B | 5.68B | 4.67B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.66B | 1.49B | 1.21B | 926.64M | 1.01B |
| Total Debt | 1.47B | 1.71B | 1.83B | 2.25B | 708.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.18B | 3.45B | 3.59B | 4.03B | 2.62B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.58B | 1.46B | 1.44B | 1.61B | 1.86B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 20.07M | 293.76M | 366.55M | 212.59M | -200.29M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 274.11M | 373.38M | 455.05M | 281.71M | 360.98M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -61.07M | 345.39M | -93.71M | 438.96M | -928.39M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -42.24M | 10.53M | -303.73M | -341.90M | 240.33M |
Greentree Hospitality Group Technical Analysis
Neutral
1.66
Price Trends
1.32
Negative
1.51
Negative
1.80
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.01
Negative
50.24
Neutral
59.95
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GHG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.24, above the 50-day MA of 1.32, and below the 200-day MA of 1.80, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GHG.
Greentree Hospitality Group Risk Analysis
Greentree Hospitality Group disclosed 76 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Greentree Hospitality Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Greentree Hospitality Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $5.22B | 20.08 | 46.59% | 1.76% | 35.38% | 26.91% | |
65 Neutral | $15.43B | 20.45 | 42.78% | 3.60% | 6.11% | 73.30% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
59 Neutral | $6.07B | 25.10 | 37.33% | 2.13% | 1.41% | -40.51% | |
58 Neutral | $125.89M | 51.51 | 11.48% | 2.85% | ― | ― | |
58 Neutral | $4.61B | 58.81 | 614.45% | 1.32% | 1.18% | 12.87% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
GHG
Greentree Hospitality Group
1.24
-0.80
-39.22%
HTHT
H World Group
50.92
15.50
43.75%
CHH
Choice Hotels
100.70
-24.87
-19.81%
WH
Wyndham Hotels & Resorts
80.84
-1.55
-1.88%
ATAT
Atour Lifestyle Holdings
37.97
13.40
54.54%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.