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Greentree Hospitality Group Ltd (GHG)
NYSE:GHG

Greentree Hospitality Group (GHG) AI Stock Analysis

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Greentree Hospitality Group

(NYSE:GHG)

66Neutral
GreenTree Hospitality Group's overall score reflects strong financial stability and an attractive valuation, but is weighed down by declining revenues and a challenging outlook as highlighted in the earnings call. Technical indicators show mild upward momentum, yet caution is warranted due to overbought signals. The negative sentiment from the earnings call further tempers the stock's prospects.

Greentree Hospitality Group (GHG) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Greentree Hospitality Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd., through its subsidiaries, develops leased-and-operated, and franchised-and-managed hotels under the GreenTree brand in the People's Republic of China. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 66 leased-and-operated hotels with 7,064 rooms; and had franchised-and-managed hotels network consisting of 4,593 hotels with 330,089 rooms covering 367 cities in China, and an additional 1,225 hotels with 91,887 rooms that were contracted for or under development. The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China. GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. is a subsidiary of GreenTree Inns Hotel Management Group, Inc.
How the Company Makes MoneyGreentree Hospitality Group makes money primarily through the operation and management of its hotel properties. The company generates revenue from room bookings, which includes overnight stays, extended stays, and group bookings. Additionally, GHG earns income from ancillary services such as food and beverage sales, conference and event hosting, and loyalty programs. The company also benefits from franchise fees and management contracts, where it leverages its brand and operational expertise to manage properties owned by third parties. Strategic partnerships with online travel agencies and other distribution channels further enhance its revenue streams by increasing its market reach and occupancy rates.

Greentree Hospitality Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Greentree Hospitality Group demonstrates solid profitability and operational efficiency, though revenue has declined. The balance sheet is stable with moderate leverage and good equity levels. Cash flow metrics show robust cash generation capabilities, although free cash flow has decreased. Overall, the company is financially stable but needs to address revenue growth challenges.
Income Statement
65
Positive
The gross profit margin stands at 41.65% and the net profit margin at 11.01% for TTM, showcasing decent profitability. However, there is a significant decline in revenue from the previous year, with a revenue growth rate of -13.29%. EBIT and EBITDA margins are 21.97% and 30.72% respectively, indicating good operational efficiency amidst falling revenue.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The debt-to-equity ratio is 1.12, indicating moderate leverage. The equity ratio is 30.52%, showing a healthy level of equity financing. ROE is 9.99%, suggesting reasonable returns on equity. Overall, the balance sheet reflects stability with manageable debt levels.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.84, indicating strong cash generation relative to income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.55, reflecting solid free cash flow generation. However, the free cash flow has decreased by 34.10% compared to the previous year, highlighting a potential area of concern.
Breakdown
Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020Dec 2019
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.63B945.14M1.21B930.01M1.09B
Gross Profit
679.82M351.12M554.77M537.49M752.97M
EBIT
335.65M-437.75M241.72M319.25M504.55M
EBITDA
511.30M-350.84M330.12M385.12M548.37M
Net Income Common Stockholders
269.32M-407.64M211.60M261.34M442.72M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.23B873.49M1.01B1.16B964.13M
Total Assets
5.07B5.10B4.73B4.09B3.82B
Total Debt
1.83B2.06B708.00M150.00M60.00M
Net Debt
1.07B1.39B409.57M-461.36M-259.85M
Total Liabilities
3.59B3.61B2.60B1.85B1.86B
Stockholders Equity
1.44B1.45B1.95B2.10B1.80B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
366.55M212.59M-200.29M184.49M413.73M
Operating Cash Flow
455.05M281.71M360.98M297.30M513.94M
Investing Cash Flow
-93.71M438.96M-928.39M-115.60M-1.22B
Financing Cash Flow
-303.73M-341.90M255.63M117.53M-212.23M

Greentree Hospitality Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price2.05
Price Trends
50DMA
2.48
Negative
100DMA
2.53
Negative
200DMA
2.60
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.11
Negative
RSI
32.95
Neutral
STOCH
11.29
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GHG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.05 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.20, below the 50-day MA of 2.48, and below the 200-day MA of 2.60, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 32.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.29 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GHG.

Greentree Hospitality Group Risk Analysis

Greentree Hospitality Group disclosed 76 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Greentree Hospitality Group reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Greentree Hospitality Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$3.27B18.5450.89%1.75%53.63%70.07%
GHGHG
66
Neutral
$210.20M13.217.89%4.03%
60
Neutral
$6.86B11.743.14%4.15%2.37%-21.95%
44
Neutral
$1.13B49.70%6.28%-45.76%
39
Underperform
$26.30M78.49%15.74%33.63%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GHG
Greentree Hospitality Group
2.05
-1.07
-34.29%
INTG
The Intergroup
12.48
-8.15
-39.51%
SOND
Sonder Holdings
2.28
-1.72
-43.00%
ATAT
Atour Lifestyle Holdings
24.18
6.72
38.49%
SHCO
Soho House & Co
5.94
0.73
14.01%

Greentree Hospitality Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 13, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: -17.34%|
Next Earnings Date:Jun 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment. While there are significant strategic expansions and improvements in cash flow and membership growth, these are overshadowed by declines in revenue and profitability in both the Hotel and Restaurant segments. The strategic shift in the Restaurant business and focus on mid to upscale hotels are positive, but the revenue and RevPAR declines present challenges.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Expansion Plans for 2025
GreenTree plans to open 480 new hotels in 2025, marking a 20% increase from 2024. This expansion is part of their strategic focus on the mid to upscale segments and rejuvenating their existing portfolio.
Increase in Membership Programs
Individual memberships grew to 102 million from 91 million, and corporate memberships increased to 2.17 million from 2.05 million over the year.
Positive Cash Flow from Operations
Despite revenue declines, cash from operations increased year-over-year from negative RMB 13.5 million to RMB 74.2 million.
Profitability Improvement in Restaurant Business
Net income excluding impairments increased by 44.3% to RMB 18.9 million in the fourth quarter, indicating improved profitability due to strategic execution.
Strategic Shift in Restaurant Business
Franchised and Managed stores now account for almost 90% of all stores, up from 78% a year ago, with a focus on Street stores which now account for 50% of all stores, up from 40% last year.
Negative Updates
Decline in RevPAR and Revenue
Hotel RevPAR decreased by 9.6% and total revenue fell by 18.2% to RMB 304 million due to the closure of 12 hotels and lower performance metrics.
Decreased Hotel Segment Revenue
Hotel revenues decreased by 17.1% to RMB 240.2 million, impacted by the closure of 12 L&O hotels and a decrease in RevPAR.
Restaurant Revenue Decline
Restaurant revenues were RMB 65.1 million, a 25.8% year-over-year decrease, primarily due to the closure of L&O stores and a 16.8% decrease in ADS.
Increased Operating Costs in Restaurant Business
Total costs and expenses in the Restaurant business increased by 98.7% year-over-year due to the impairment of goodwill and trademarks.
Company Guidance
During the GreenTree Hospitality Group Limited Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2024 Financial Results Conference Call, the company provided guidance for the upcoming fiscal year 2025. They plan to open approximately 480 new hotels, reflecting a 20% increase from 405 in 2024, while closing about 200 hotels, resulting in a net addition of 280 hotels. For the Restaurant business, GreenTree aims to open 60 new restaurants, focusing on Franchised and Managed Street stores. The company expects total revenues of their Organic Hotel business for 2025 to be flat compared to 2024, with RevPAR anticipated to remain stable after a 5% decline in the first quarter. Additionally, the company highlighted strategic efforts to rejuvenate and upgrade their hotel portfolio by summer 2026 and continue the phased closure of leased and managed hotels in lower-tier cities.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.