Gemini Space Station, Inc. Class A (GEMI)
NASDAQ:GEMI
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Gemini Space Station, Inc. Class A
(NASDAQ:GEMI)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$4.00
▼(-16.84% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/26/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (large losses and ongoing cash burn) and bearish technical signals (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Partially offsetting these risks, the latest earnings call outlined credible cost-reduction steps and showed traction in higher-margin services and the credit card business, though execution and market-dependence remain key uncertainties.
Positive Factors
Services revenue expansion and diversification
Growing services revenue shifts mix away from highly cyclical trading fees toward higher‑margin, recurring streams. Sustained expansion to one‑third of revenue supports margin durability, reduces volatility in top line, and creates a foundation for predictable adjusted EBITDA improvement if scale continues.
Negative Factors
Persistent negative operating cash flow
Chronic operating cash burn forces reliance on external financing or balance‑sheet actions to fund operations and growth. Until normalized operating cash flow turns sustainably positive, the firm remains vulnerable to tighter credit conditions, raising execution risk for its multi‑product transition.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Services revenue expansion and diversification
Growing services revenue shifts mix away from highly cyclical trading fees toward higher‑margin, recurring streams. Sustained expansion to one‑third of revenue supports margin durability, reduces volatility in top line, and creates a foundation for predictable adjusted EBITDA improvement if scale continues.
Read all positive factors
Gemini Space Station, Inc. Class A (GEMI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$563.93M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.00M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.24
Revenue Growth-22.13%
EPS Growth-267.08%
CountryUS
Employees700
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Capital Markets
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-9.63
Shares Outstanding44,858,610
10 Day Avg. Volume2,196,851
30 Day Avg. Volume2,002,602
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.15
Price to Sales (P/S)7.95
P/FCF Ratio-5.15
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.54
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.93
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-31.87
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-2.43
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.97Price Target Upside44.95% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)-3.2
Revenue Forecast (FY)$239.26M
Gemini Space Station, Inc. Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Gemini Space Station, Inc. develops a crypto platform to buy, sell, and store crypto assets. The company's platform offers crypto assets, including bitcoin and ether; and services, such as derivatives exchange, staking services, an over-the-counte...
Gemini Space Station, Inc. Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Balanced. The quarter and year showed clear signs of strategic progress: revenue growth (+24% YoY), rapid credit card adoption and product diversification into services and prediction markets, plus decisive cost and balance sheet actions (headcount reduction, loan repayment). However, these positives are tempered by large GAAP losses (net loss $582.8M), a sharp rise in operating expenses (~70% YoY), continued crypto-market volatility that weakened trading volumes, restructuring costs and near-term uncertainty. Management has articulated a credible plan to reduce costs and shift toward higher-margin recurring services, but execution risk and macro dependence remain.Positive Updates
Public Listing and Strategic Repositioning
Completed IPO and became a public company on September 12, 2025; management is repositioning Gemini from a crypto-only company to a markets-focused 'super app' (predictions, credit card, future equities) driven by product diversification and AI-enabled efficiencies.
Negative Updates
Material GAAP Losses and Adjusted EBITDA Deficit
Full year 2025 GAAP net loss was $582.8 million; full year adjusted EBITDA loss was $258 million (inclusive of $33.4 million net realized/unrealized losses). Significant non-cash charges included $178.5 million fair value losses on related-party instruments and ~$85 million of IPO-related stock-based compensation.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Public Listing and Strategic Repositioning
Completed IPO and became a public company on September 12, 2025; management is repositioning Gemini from a crypto-only company to a markets-focused 'super app' (predictions, credit card, future equities) driven by product diversification and AI-enabled efficiencies.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management did not give a total FY2026 OpEx target but provided granular guidance and milestones: compensation (excluding stock-based comp and restructuring) is expected to fall 15–20% vs. 2025, stock‑based compensation is guided to $100–$115M, technology and G&A to $155–$190M, and marketing (excluding rewards/promos) to 10–15% of revenue; they expect the $11M pretax restructuring charge largely in Q1 2026 (cash), ~30% headcount reduction (from ~650 at Q4 to ~445 as of Mar 1) with full run‑rate savings reflected by Q3, and meaningful declines in normalized operating cash losses. Key balance‑sheet and program metrics underpinning the plan include $252M cash, $117M Galaxy loan repayment in Q4, card receivables of $219.8M with a $154.4M warehouse outstanding against $188M pledged receivables (supporting $250M capacity), Q1 card payment volume >$330M with >150,000 open card accounts, early traction in Predictions (~15,000 users, ~12,000 contracts), and Feb trading volumes of ~$5.3B and ~606k monthly transacting users — all of which management expects to drive improved adjusted EBITDA in 2026 as the business shifts toward higher‑margin services.Gemini Space Station, Inc. Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
33
Negative
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||
| Total Revenue | 146.17M | 142.16M | 98.14M |
| Gross Profit | 146.17M | 11.68M | -42.62M |
| EBITDA | -518.47M | -132.49M | -257.97M |
| Net Income | -582.81M | -158.55M | -319.68M |
Balance Sheet | |||
| Total Assets | 1.81B | 1.59B | 1.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 807.12M | 42.85M | 391.47M |
| Total Debt | 654.03M | 1.19B | 733.83M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.27B | 1.85B | 1.32B |
| Stockholders Equity | 540.87M | -260.99M | -109.94M |
Cash Flow | |||
| Free Cash Flow | -225.86M | -114.94M | -214.23M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -218.19M | -108.96M | -207.29M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -47.93M | 83.61M | 33.22M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 521.37M | 225.38M | -521.44M |
Gemini Space Station, Inc. Class A Risk Analysis
Gemini Space Station, Inc. Class A disclosed 103 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Gemini Space Station, Inc. Class A reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Gemini Space Station, Inc. Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $3.76B | 2.96 | 25.95% | 1.47% | ― | ― | |
70 Outperform | $3.09B | 11.08 | 17.30% | ― | 10.08% | 7.80% | |
69 Neutral | $1.19B | 9.34 | 21.89% | ― | 56.68% | 159.90% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $1.44B | 51.77 | 7.83% | ― | -1.91% | -64.28% | |
56 Neutral | $1.79B | 214.94 | -13.25% | 1.62% | -30.35% | ― | |
45 Neutral | $563.93M | -2.06 | -1875.94% | ― | -22.13% | -267.08% |
* Financial Sector Average
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Gemini Space Station, Inc. Class A Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Gemini Space Station Announces Major Executive Leadership Reshuffle
Neutral
Feb 17, 2026
On February 17, 2026, Gemini Space Station, Inc. Class A announced the departure of Chief Operating Officer Marshall Beard, Chief Financial Officer Dan Chen, and Chief Legal Officer Tyler Meade, all effective that day, with Beard also resigning fr...
Business Operations and Strategy
Gemini Space Station Restructures, Refocuses on U.S. Prediction Markets
Negative
Feb 5, 2026
On February 5, 2026, Gemini’s co-founders Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss outlined a strategic overhaul in which the company is shrinking its global footprint and workforce while reorienting its business around artificial intelligence and predi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.