Nexters (GDEV) AI Stock Analysis

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Nexters

(NASDAQ:GDEV)

56Neutral

Nexters faces substantial challenges with declining revenue and negative equity, which weigh heavily on its financial performance. While the company shows strong cash flow management and appears undervalued based on the P/E ratio, technical indicators are bearish, suggesting downward pressures. Mixed earnings call results highlight both strategic progress and ongoing financial difficulties, resulting in a moderate overall stock score.

Nexters (GDEV) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$175.86M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)16.73K

Price to Earnings (P/E)4.4

Beta (1Y)1.52

Revenue Growth-5.57%

EPS GrowthN/A

CountryUS

Employees726

SectorCommunication Services

Sector Strength73

IndustryElectronic Gaming & Multimedia

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)2.14

Shares Outstanding18,130,090

10 Day Avg. Volume13,086

30 Day Avg. Volume16,734

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)0.59

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)N/A

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$70.00

Price Target Upside643.89% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering2

Nexters Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGDEV Inc. operates as a gaming and entertainment company in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. It develops desktop, mobile, web, and social games. The company was formerly known as Nexters Inc. and changed its name to GDEV Inc. in June 2023. GDEV Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Limassol, Cyprus.

How the Company Makes MoneyNexters generates revenue primarily through the freemium model, where games are free to download and play but offer in-app purchases to enhance the gaming experience. This includes purchasing virtual goods, currencies, and other in-game items that provide benefits or customization options for players. Additionally, the company monetizes through advertising within its games, offering ad placements that generate income while keeping the games accessible to a wide user base. Strategic partnerships with major app stores and advertising networks also play a crucial role in maximizing revenue streams.

Nexters Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Nexters shows a mixed financial performance. Strong gross profit margins and healthy cash flow generation are offset by a negative revenue growth rate and high financial risk due to negative equity. Operational efficiency is evident, but significant leverage and negative equity require careful management.

Income Statement

Positive

Nexters shows a mixed performance. The gross profit margin remains strong, suggesting effective cost management. However, the net profit margin improved significantly, indicating better profitability compared to previous years. The revenue growth rate is negative, showing a decline in total revenue compared to the prior period, which could be a concern for sustained growth. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are decent, showing operational efficiency, but there's room for improvement given the industry standards.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The company's balance sheet reveals high leverage with a negative stockholders' equity, which poses a risk. The debt-to-equity ratio isn't meaningful due to negative equity, indicating high financial risk. The return on equity is not calculable under negative equity conditions, but operational improvements are noted. The company's asset management appears stable, but the negative equity suggests potential financial instability.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash flows are relatively healthy, with a positive operating cash flow and free cash flow, indicating good cash generation abilities. However, the free cash flow growth rate is negative, reflecting a reduction compared to the previous year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio shows efficient conversion of income to cash. The company needs to focus on sustaining its cash flow generation to mitigate balance sheet risks.

TTM	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020	Dec 2019
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
443.23M	464.55M	479.69M	434.09M	260.89M	93.81M
	Gross Profit
292.75M	303.86M	306.03M	297.92M	168.34M	49.32M
	EBIT
54.36M	38.36M	108.34M	127.62M	-1.67M	-35.76M
	EBITDA
62.27M	56.68M	19.14M	4.72M	-1.11M	-35.47M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
48.48M	46.12M	7.30M	-117.44M	-751.00K	-35.53M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
18.48M	156.03M	137.14M	142.80M	84.56M	18.48M
	Total Assets
0.00	320.55M	322.04M	312.98M	211.55M	80.47M
	Total Debt
0.00	2.44M	1.19M	1.93M	1.16M	4.03M
	Net Debt
18.48M	-69.36M	-85.59M	-140.87M	-83.40M	-13.54M
	Total Liabilities
48.57M	420.37M	470.82M	474.03M	313.46M	129.03M
	Stockholders Equity
-48.57M	-99.81M	-148.78M	-161.09M	-101.91M	-48.57M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
29.26M	17.20M	115.02M	104.08M	120.48M	14.85M
	Operating Cash Flow
29.75M	17.95M	116.08M	105.52M	120.62M	14.95M
	Investing Cash Flow
-5.62M	-32.46M	-171.78M	-2.72M	361.00K	-345.00K
	Financing Cash Flow
-44.99M	-1.95M	-1.90M	-42.98M	-56.05M	-156.00K

Nexters Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price9.41

Price Trends

50DMA

13.64

Negative

100DMA

15.54

Negative

200DMA

19.49

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.83

Positive

RSI

28.59

Positive

STOCH

11.82

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GDEV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.41 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.90, below the 50-day MA of 13.64, and below the 200-day MA of 19.49, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.83 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 28.59 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.82 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GDEV.

Nexters Risk Analysis

Nexters disclosed 69 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nexters reported the most risks in the “Tech & Innovation” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Nexters Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (58)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	58 Neutral	$25.04B	3.23	-10.53%	4.39%	2.30%	-43.13%
MYPS	58 Neutral	$168.17M	―	-10.76%	―	-6.90%	-57.81%
GDEV	56 Neutral	$175.86M	4.39		―	-5.57%	―
WIMI	56 Neutral	$62.87M	―	-45.22%	―	14.77%	-23.52%
SKLZ	52 Neutral	$66.00M	―	-25.25%	―	-37.90%	80.16%
BODI	51 Neutral	$34.94M	―	-129.17%	―	-20.55%	57.03%
ZH	46 Neutral	$323.63M	―	-3.92%	―	-9.07%	59.67%

* Communication Services Sector Average

Performance Comparison

GDEV

Nexters

9.41

-9.21

-49.46%

WIMI

WiMi Hologram Cloud

0.31

-0.52

-62.65%

SKLZ

Skillz

3.83

-2.64

-40.80%

MYPS

PLAYSTUDIOS

1.28

-1.47

-53.45%

BODI

Beachbody Company

5.06

-5.74

-53.15%

Zhihu

3.34

-0.95

-22.14%

Nexters Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Mar 31, 2025 | % Change Since: -18.88% | Next Earnings Date: Jul 31, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mixed outlook. While there were significant achievements in terms of revenue growth, cash flow, leadership, and successful product launches, these were offset by year-over-year declines in revenue, bookings, net profit, and adjusted EBITDA. The company is focusing on long-term product improvements and geographical expansion, but current financial indicators show areas of concern.

Highlights

Revenue Growth Exceeds Expectations

Revenue for Q3 2024 amounted to $111 million, reflecting a 5% growth quarter-over-quarter, and surpassed analysts' consensus on revenue and adjusted EBITDA.

Cash Flow Increase

Cash flows generated from operating activities increased to $12 million compared to $8 million in Q3 2023, demonstrating effective cash management.

Geographical Expansion Success

Bookings in Europe grew year-over-year, increasing the region’s share of total bookings from 26% to 30%. Notably strong performances were seen in Germany, France, the UK, and Poland.

Leadership Enhancement

Appointment of Olga Loskutova as Chief Operating Officer to guide studios towards achieving strategic goals and fostering sustainable growth.

Successful Launch on Steam

The launch of Pixel Gun on Steam was a huge success, stabilizing with an average of 2,500 to 3,000 concurrent users, and the number is growing month over month.

Lowlights

Year-over-Year Revenue Decline

Revenue for Q3 2024 declined by 9% year-over-year, primarily due to the decline in bookings.

Bookings Decline

Bookings declined by 8% year-over-year to $93 million, affected by reduced in-game events and monetization.

Net Profit Decrease

Net profit in Q3 2024 amounted to $15 million, a decline from $24 million in the same period last year, primarily due to lower revenue and higher marketing spend.

Adjusted EBITDA Decrease

Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $16 million, down $13 million year-over-year.

Company Guidance

During the GDEV Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call, the company reported a 5% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth, reaching $111 million, despite a 9% decline year-over-year. Bookings declined by 8% year-over-year to $93 million, attributed to strategic product improvements aimed at enhancing player experience and retention. Platform commissions decreased by 13% year-over-year, while marketing investments rose by $9 million to $52 million, aligning with efforts to increase marketing efficiency. The net profit for Q3 2024 was $15 million, down from $24 million the previous year, primarily due to increased marketing spend. Adjusted EBITDA stood at $16 million, reflecting a $13 million decrease year-over-year, although operating cash flows improved to $12 million from $8 million in Q3 2023. The company highlighted strategic geographic expansion, particularly in Europe, where bookings increased the region's share from 26% to 30%. Additionally, GDEV executed a one-for-ten reverse stock split and an at-the-market offering to enhance stock liquidity and market appeal. Overall, GDEV remains focused on sustainable growth through product evolution and marketing investments.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.