GCM Grosvenor (GCMG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.96B
• Dividend Yield: 3.91%
• Average Volume (3M): 754.70K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.64
• Revenue Growth: 18.33%
• EPS Growth: 109.57%
• Country: US
• Employees: 549
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.31
• Shares Outstanding: 60,810,960
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 795,083
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 754,702
• PEG Ratio: 0.12
• Price to Book (P/B): 21.81
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.07
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.36
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.04
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.66
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.44
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.25
• 1Y Price Target: $17.50
• Price Target Upside: 80.60% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.88
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $587.37M

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $10.50 ▲(8.36% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/20/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/20/26

The score is driven primarily by improving profitability and strong cash generation, but is held back by high leverage and a thin equity cushion. Earnings-call commentary was a meaningful positive (record fundraising, AUM growth, margin expansion, and shareholder returns/deleveraging), while technicals are only moderately supportive and valuation appears somewhat rich despite the solid dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Record fundraising and AUM growth

Sustained record fundraising and double-digit AUM growth expand fee-bearing scale and diversify fee sources. Growing contracted, not-yet-fee-paying AUM provides a durable pipeline that supports future management fees, improving revenue visibility and competitive positioning over the medium term.

Strong cash generation and conversion

Consistent operating cash flow and improved free cash flow enhance the firm's ability to fund buybacks, prepay debt, and invest in product distribution without relying on equity raises. Reliable cash conversion underpins capital allocation flexibility and resilience through market cycles.

Margin expansion and growing carried interest NAV

Higher fee-related margins and a rising carried interest NAV indicate improved operating leverage and future upside from incentive fees. Durable margin gains expand free cash flow potential per dollar of AUM, while accumulated unrealized carry provides medium-term performance fee optionality.

Negative Factors

High leverage and thin equity cushion

Elevated debt and a recently restored but small equity base reduce financial flexibility and increase vulnerability to AUM or fee pressure. Limited capital cushion constrains the firm's ability to weather prolonged downturns or pursue opportunistic investments without adding leverage or diluting shareholders.

Uneven revenue and earnings history

A history of uneven revenue and episodic earnings volatility complicates forecasting and raises execution risk. Reliance on episodic streams (performance fees, fund realizations) means base fee revenue may not fully offset down cycles, pressuring margins and investor confidence over several quarters.

Timing risk from performance fees and catch-up effects

Dependence on performance fee timing and catch-up mechanics injects material volatility into earnings recognition. When realizations lag, near-term FRE and distributable cash can be constrained despite rising unrealized carry, making medium-term profit and cash forecasts sensitive to exit and market timing.

GCM Grosvenor Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

GCM Grosvenor Inc. is global alternative asset management solutions provider. The firm primarily provides its services to pooled investment vehicles. It also provides its services to investment companies, high net worth individuals, pension and profit sharing plans and state or municipal government entities. The firm invests in equity and alternative investment markets of the United States and internationally. The firm invests in multi-strategy, credit-focused, equity-focused, macro-focused, commodity-focused, and other specialty portfolios. It focuses in hedge fund asset classes, private equity, real estate, and/or infrastructure, credit and absolute return strategies. It also focuses in primary fund investments, secondary fund investments, and co-investments with a focus on buyout, distressed debt, mezzanine, venture capital/growth equity investments. The firm seeks to do seed investments in small, emerging, and diverse private equity firms. The firm seeks to make regionally-focused investments in middle-market buyout. It prefers to invest in aerospace and defense, advanced electronics, information technology, biosciences, and advanced materials. It focuses on Ohio and the Midwest region. The firm employs fundamental and quantitative analysis. GCM Grosvenor Inc. was founded in 1971 and is based in Chicago, Illinois with additional offices in North America, Asia, Australia and Europe.

How the Company Makes Money

GCM Grosvenor primarily makes money by earning fees for managing alternative investment solutions for clients, with revenues tied to assets under management and, where applicable, investment performance. Its key revenue streams generally include: (1) management fees earned for overseeing client capital in its investment programs (commonly structured as a percentage of fee-earning AUM and recognized over time as services are provided); (2) incentive/performance fees or carried interest on certain products where compensation is linked to achieving specified investment returns (recognized when the related performance hurdles/measurement periods are met under the applicable arrangements); and (3) other client and service-related revenues, which can include advisory/consulting-style fees, administrative or servicing fees tied to operating investment vehicles, and similar income depending on product structure. The firm’s earnings are influenced by the level of fee-earning AUM (net client flows and market/investment performance), the mix of products (fee rates and whether performance-based compensation applies), and the timing/volatility of performance-fee realization.

GCM Grosvenor Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability rebounded meaningfully in 2025 and cash generation is consistently strong (good cash conversion and higher 2025 operating/FCF). The major offset is balance-sheet risk: high leverage and only recently positive equity leave a thin capital cushion and below-average financial flexibility.

Income Statement

Profitability improved meaningfully in 2025, with much stronger operating and net margins versus 2024 and a return to solid operating earnings after a weaker 2023. Revenue also grew in 2024 and 2025, supporting the earnings rebound. Offsetting this, the multi-year revenue path is uneven (including a sharp decline in 2022) and earnings quality has been volatile historically, with losses/very weak operating performance in 2020 and 2023.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is the key concern: debt is high relative to equity, and equity was negative for several years before turning slightly positive in 2025, which signals a thinner capital cushion than peers. Total debt has risen over time, while equity remains small versus the balance sheet size, leaving the company more exposed to downturns or fee pressure. A positive inflection in 2025 helps, but overall balance-sheet strength remains below average.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative strength, with strong operating cash flow and free cash flow in each year shown, including a step-up in 2025. Cash flow has generally tracked (and often exceeded) reported earnings, indicating good cash conversion. The main weakness is volatility in free cash flow growth (notably a decline in 2023 and 2025 after growth in 2024), suggesting variability in underlying cash drivers.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	550.08M	523.47M	451.99M	452.52M	577.56M
Gross Profit	545.65M	235.40M	95.94M	175.21M	243.73M
EBITDA	174.66M	77.64M	4.93M	116.26M	177.17M
Net Income	45.37M	18.70M	12.77M	19.82M	21.48M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	813.76M	612.73M	504.94M	488.93M	581.62M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	242.12M	89.45M	44.35M	85.16M	96.19M
Total Debt	480.23M	485.92M	426.21M	403.15M	390.52M
Total Liabilities	686.33M	703.07M	616.17M	582.94M	637.42M
Stockholders Equity	26.99M	-27.62M	-27.63M	-19.82M	-25.71M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	175.04M	132.04M	88.30M	215.73M	178.23M
Operating Cash Flow	183.54M	148.77M	92.06M	216.51M	178.80M
Investing Cash Flow	-120.50M	-31.83M	-18.84M	-10.07M	-28.11M
Financing Cash Flow	89.13M	-70.38M	-113.66M	-215.07M	-251.27M

GCM Grosvenor Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 9.69
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GCMG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.69 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.06, below the 50-day MA of 11.15, and below the 200-day MA of 11.51, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.34 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 3.76 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GCMG.

GCM Grosvenor Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PAX	69 Neutral	$1.79B	29.32	14.71%	3.78%	22.09%	58.98%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
GSBD	66 Neutral	$1.02B	8.99	8.03%	17.34%	-16.58%	65.24%
CNS	65 Neutral	$3.20B	21.00	28.53%	3.92%	12.73%	19.01%
APAM	65 Neutral	$2.90B	9.21	73.54%	8.72%	5.46%	2.10%
GCMG	62 Neutral	$1.96B	12.97	-863.72%	3.91%	18.33%	109.57%
HTGC	62 Neutral	$2.60B	10.01	15.88%	10.00%	-15.32%	-12.29%