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Gcm Grosvenor Inc. (GCMG)
:GCMG
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GCM Grosvenor
(NASDAQ:GCMG)
60Neutral
Positive Factors
Fundraising and investment demand
Fundraising was at its highest level in more than two years and the pipeline remains strong despite increasingly challenging market conditions.
Management confidence and earnings growth
Management reiterated its confidence in being able to double fee-related earnings from 2023 to 2028.
Valuation and investment opportunity
GCM represents a good opportunity to buy into a company with strong secular tailwinds before growth improves.
Negative Factors
Economic uncertainty and risks
Greater economic uncertainty and recession risks have weakened the outlook for deployments and realizations.
GCM Grosvenor (GCMG) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.45B
Dividend Yield3.52%
Average Volume (3M)447.92K
Price to Earnings (P/E)92.9
Beta (1Y)0.64
Revenue Growth17.33%
EPS Growth1.83%
CountryUS
Employees549
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength87
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.18
Shares Outstanding49,994,434
10 Day Avg. Volume434,414
30 Day Avg. Volume447,920
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.51
Price to Book (P/B)-20.44
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio16.34
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.15
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.48
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.10
Enterprise Value/Ebitda21.88
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.10Price Target Upside11.73% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
GCM Grosvenor Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGCM Grosvenor (GCMG) is a global alternative asset management firm that specializes in a wide range of investment strategies. Founded in 1971, the company is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, and operates across various sectors including private equity, infrastructure, real estate, and credit. GCM Grosvenor provides customized investment solutions to a diverse client base, including public and private pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, financial institutions, foundations, and endowments.
How the Company Makes MoneyGCM Grosvenor makes money primarily through management and performance fees associated with managing client assets. The company charges management fees based on a percentage of assets under management (AUM) and earns performance fees when specific investment benchmarks are met or exceeded. GCM Grosvenor's revenue streams are bolstered by its diverse product offerings across various asset classes, including private equity, real estate, infrastructure, and credit strategies. Additionally, strategic partnerships and long-term relationships with institutional clients contribute to the company's revenue by ensuring a steady flow of assets to manage and opportunities for co-investments and tailored investment solutions.
GCM Grosvenor Financial Statement Overview
Summary
GCM Grosvenor has demonstrated strong revenue growth and robust cash flow generation, yet faces challenges with operational efficiency and financial stability due to negative equity.Income Statement
GCM Grosvenor has shown a strong recovery in Total Revenue, with a 15.5% growth from 2023 to 2024. The Gross Profit Margin improved to 34.6% in 2024, indicating better control over costs. However, the Net Profit Margin remains modest at 3.6%. Despite positive EBIT and EBITDA in 2024, the margins are still relatively low, highlighting ongoing challenges in operational efficiency.62
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company shows no debt in 2024, which is positive, but the Stockholders' Equity remains negative, indicating financial instability. The Equity Ratio is also negative due to the negative equity, suggesting a high reliance on liabilities. These factors present a risk to the company's financial health despite improvements in asset growth.45
Neutral
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow has increased significantly, and Free Cash Flow is strong, indicating robust cash generation capabilities. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is favorable, suggesting efficient cash usage relative to net income. These factors demonstrate strong liquidity, despite past fluctuations.78
Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 514.01M | 445.00M | 446.53M | 531.59M | 429.98M |
| Gross Profit | ||||
| 177.78M | 88.95M | 169.22M | 197.75M | 41.52M |
| EBIT | ||||
| 73.48M | -11.85M | 80.31M | 109.40M | -40.86M |
| EBITDA | ||||
| 77.64M | -9.15M | 84.17M | 113.42M | -45.43M |
| Net Income Common Stockholders | ||||
| 18.70M | 12.77M | 79.48M | 142.07M | -67.63M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 89.45M | 44.35M | 85.16M | 96.19M | 198.15M |
| Total Assets | ||||
| 612.73M | 504.94M | 488.93M | 581.62M | 631.89M |
| Total Debt | ||||
| 485.92M | 426.21M | 403.15M | 390.52M | 335.15M |
| Net Debt | ||||
| 396.46M | 381.85M | 317.98M | 294.33M | 137.01M |
| Total Liabilities | ||||
| 703.07M | 616.17M | 582.94M | 637.42M | 556.17M |
| Stockholders Equity | ||||
| -27.62M | -27.63M | -19.82M | -25.71M | -20.02M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 132.04M | 88.30M | 215.73M | 178.23M | 66.86M |
| Operating Cash Flow | ||||
| 148.77M | 92.06M | 216.51M | 178.80M | 68.17M |
| Investing Cash Flow | ||||
| -31.83M | -18.84M | -10.07M | -28.11M | -5.53M |
| Financing Cash Flow | ||||
| -70.38M | -113.66M | -215.07M | -251.27M | 54.76M |
GCM Grosvenor Technical Analysis
Positive
12.62
Price Trends
12.81
Negative
12.95
Negative
12.07
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.07
Negative
49.97
Neutral
59.40
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GCMG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.62 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.49, below the 50-day MA of 12.81, and above the 200-day MA of 12.07, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.40 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GCMG.
GCM Grosvenor Risk Analysis
GCM Grosvenor disclosed 82 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. GCM Grosvenor reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
GCM Grosvenor Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $3.38B | 12.05 | 24.98% | 2.90% | 2.32% | 1.08% | |
76 Outperform | $3.45B | 12.03 | 69.81% | 7.30% | 7.18% | 10.17% | |
71 Outperform | $3.85B | 12.87 | 8.88% | 11.48% | 16.10% | -24.30% | |
70 Outperform | $3.07B | 13.13 | 11.30% | 9.15% | -7.29% | -38.60% | |
64 Neutral | $12.73B | 9.82 | 7.91% | 17015.08% | 12.18% | -5.69% | |
60 Neutral | $2.45B | 92.86 | -12.68% | 3.52% | 17.33% | 1.83% | |
60 Neutral | $2.68B | 72.24 | -22.41% | 4.94% | -1.09% | -120.06% |
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
GCMG
GCM Grosvenor
12.62
3.44
37.47%
FHI
Federated Hermes
42.94
11.12
34.95%
GBDC
Golub Capital Bdc
14.78
-0.34
-2.25%
HTGC
Hercules Capital
17.82
0.08
0.45%
APAM
Artisan Partners
42.71
1.24
2.99%
BRDG
Bridge Investment Group
10.06
3.24
47.51%
GCM Grosvenor Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: -0.08%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
GCM Grosvenor reported strong financial performance and record fundraising achievements, alongside the launch of strategic initiatives aimed at expanding market reach. However, market conditions and policy uncertainties pose challenges to incentive fee realizations and deployment levels, balancing the positive momentum.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Fundraising Achievement
GCM Grosvenor raised $2.9 billion in the first quarter, marking the highest quarterly fundraising level in over two years and the second-highest since going public. Approximately $1.3 billion was raised for the Infrastructure Advantage Fund II, nearly 50% larger than its predecessor.
Strong Financial Performance
First quarter fee-related revenue grew 12% year-over-year, fee-related earnings grew 22%, adjusted EBITDA grew 26%, and adjusted net income grew 30% year-over-year.
Growth in Absolute Return Strategies
Raised $1.6 billion for Absolute Return Strategies since the start of 2024, with a strong pipeline ahead. The multi-strategy composite generated a 10.6% annualized gross return over the last two years, outperforming industry benchmarks.
Strategic Initiatives
Announced a joint venture called Grove Lane targeting the RIA distribution in the U.S. and a strategic partnership in Japan, which aims to raise at least $1.5 billion by 2030.
Increased AUM and Fee-Paying AUM
Assets under management grew to $82 billion, and fee-paying AUM grew to $66 billion. Contracted not yet fee-paying AUM grew 16% year-over-year to $8.2 billion.
Negative Updates
Muted Incentive Fee Realizations
Market conditions are expected to result in muted incentive fee realizations in the near term, with the firm's gross unrealized carried interest standing at $865 million.
Uncertainty in Deployment and Transaction Levels
Trade and tax policy uncertainty is likely to keep deployment and transaction levels depressed, impacting incentive fee levels for the industry and GCM Grosvenor.
Limited Catch-Up Fees Anticipated
With the final close of IAF II, limited additional catch-up fees are anticipated between now and year-end due to the mix of offerings in the market.
Company Guidance
In the first quarter of 2025, GCM Grosvenor reported strong financial performance, surpassing profitability expectations with significant fundraising achievements. The company raised $2.9 billion, marking its highest quarterly fundraising in over two years, with half of this amount allocated to infrastructure, including a substantial final close of nearly $500 million for the Infrastructure Advantage Fund II. Private equity also contributed significantly, raising over $720 million. Financially, the firm saw a 20% year-over-year increase in private markets management fees, a 12% rise in fee-related revenue, and a 22% growth in fee-related earnings. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 26%, while adjusted net income grew by 30% year-over-year. The company also announced strategic initiatives, including a joint venture, Grove Lane, targeting individual investors, and a partnership in Japan, aiming to raise $1.5 billion by 2030. Despite market volatility, GCM Grosvenor remains optimistic about its ability to surpass last year's fundraising total of $7.1 billion and expects mid-single-digit growth in private markets fee-related revenue for the full year.GCM Grosvenor Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
GCM Grosvenor Appoints David A. Helfand to Board
Positive
Feb 10, 2025
On February 6, 2025, GCM Grosvenor’s Board of Directors appointed David A. Helfand to its Board, effective February 20, 2025, filling the vacancy left by Blythe Masters. Helfand, with extensive experience in real estate investment, will serve as chairperson of the audit committee and participate in the non-employee director compensation program. In its financial report for 2024, GCM Grosvenor highlighted a significant fundraising increase of 41% and growth in various earnings metrics, reflecting strong operational performance. The Board approved a dividend of $0.11 per share and increased its share repurchase authorization by $50 million. These financial moves underscore the firm’s positive outlook and commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.