Serabi Gold (SRB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £260.53M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 505.79K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 4.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.03
• Revenue Growth: 44.89%
• EPS Growth: 120.82%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 859
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): 0.16
• Shares Outstanding: 75,734,550
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 549,131
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 505,785
• PEG Ratio: 0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.98
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.08
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.58
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.23
• Revenue Forecast (FY): £222.40M

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: 323.00p ▲(2.22% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/04/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/04/26

The score is driven by strong financial performance (high margins, improving earnings power, and very low leverage) and supportive valuation (low P/E). These positives are moderated by weaker technicals, with the stock trading below key short-term moving averages and muted momentum indicators.

Positive Factors

High Profitability

Sustained high gross and net margins signal durable operating leverage in Serabi's mining operations. Margins near 50% gross and ~35% net provide a structural cushion against cost inflation and price variance, improving cash available for reinvestment and supporting strong ROE over the medium term.

Very Low Leverage

A conservatively positioned balance sheet with minimal debt gives Serabi lasting financial flexibility. Low leverage reduces refinancing and distress risk during commodity cycles, enabling the company to fund sustaining capex or opportunistic growth without heavy reliance on external capital.

Positive Operating Cash Generation

Consistent positive operating cash flow demonstrates the business can convert mining profits into cash, supporting maintenance capital and potential shareholder returns. Coverage of net income by OCF reduces liquidity strain and underpins medium-term self-funding capacity for operations and modest growth.

Negative Factors

Inconsistent Free Cash Flow

Low FCF conversion and past negative free cash flows indicate reinvestment, capex, or working-capital needs can erode cash available for dividends or expansion. This structural inconsistency reduces predictability of capital returns and makes long-term planning and funding of new projects more challenging.

Earnings Volatility

Historical swings from loss to profit highlight material operating volatility inherent in Serabi's business. Such volatility impairs consistent reinvestment and weakens the reliability of future earnings streams, complicating capital allocation and increasing the risk profile for multi-quarter planning.

Commodity Price Exposure

Revenue and margins are structurally tied to gold prices and realized production, leaving company performance largely at the mercy of commodity cycles. This persistent external sensitivity creates ongoing top-line and margin risk independent of operational execution, limiting control over long-term growth.

Serabi Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Serabi Gold plc engages in the evaluation, exploration, and development of gold projects in Brazil. The company also explores for copper deposits. Its primary property is the Palito mining complex covering an area of approximately 48,846 hectares located in the Tapajos region of northern Brazil. The company was formerly known as Serabi Mining Limited and changed its name to Serabi Gold plc in October 2011. Serabi Gold plc was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

Serabi Gold generates revenue primarily through the sale of gold produced from its mining operations. The company employs a business model centered around mining, processing, and selling gold, which involves significant investments in exploration, extraction, and refining. Key revenue streams include direct sales of gold bullion and possibly revenue from by-products generated during the mining process. Additionally, strategic partnerships with local suppliers and service providers help optimize operational efficiency and reduce costs. The company's earnings are also influenced by global gold prices, production volumes, and the successful execution of its mining projects.

Serabi Gold Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability rebound with TTM revenue up 12.6% and high margins (48.4% gross, 34.9% net), supported by a very conservative balance sheet (debt-to-equity 0.04). The main offset is cash flow consistency: free cash flow is positive but uneven and recently softened, with only ~39% of net income converting to FCF and historical negative FCF in prior years.

Income Statement

Profitability and momentum are strong in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months): revenue grew 12.6% with high gross margin (48.4%) and net margin (34.9%). Earnings power has improved sharply versus 2022 (loss-making) and 2023 (lower margins), showing a clear turnaround and operating leverage. The main weakness is cyclicality/volatility in the multi-year trend (e.g., 2022 decline and loss), which is common in gold producers and can reappear if costs rise or realized prices soften.

Balance Sheet

Balance sheet is conservatively positioned with very low leverage in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months): debt-to-equity is 0.04 and equity is sizable (154.3M) relative to total debt (6.4M). Returns on equity are strong (35.0% TTM), reflecting improved profitability and efficient capital use. A watch item is that returns and performance have been volatile across years (negative ROE in 2022), implying results can swing with the operating environment despite the low debt load.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive and supportive in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) with operating cash flow of 46.1M and free cash flow of 17.8M. Operating cash flow covers net income well (about 2.05x), indicating solid cash conversion at the operating level. The main weakness is that free cash flow has recently declined (TTM free cash flow growth -1.77) and free cash flow is only ~39% of net income, suggesting higher reinvestment needs and/or working-capital or capex pressure; historically, free cash flow has also been negative in some years (2021–2022).

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	128.77M	94.54M	63.71M	58.71M	63.14M	55.83M
Gross Profit	62.30M	39.55M	14.05M	7.87M	19.33M	16.54M
EBITDA	61.82M	37.22M	15.15M	9.21M	19.48M	15.23M
Net Income	44.90M	27.82M	6.58M	-983.05K	9.95M	7.03M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	182.64M	124.90M	115.25M	100.24M	90.68M	76.24M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	38.77M	22.18M	11.55M	7.20M	12.22M	6.60M
Total Debt	6.44M	5.95M	6.55M	6.95M	735.01K	9.08M
Total Liabilities	28.33M	20.72M	22.45M	18.71M	10.79M	18.49M
Stockholders Equity	154.31M	104.18M	92.79M	81.52M	79.89M	57.75M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	17.84M	11.93M	4.72M	-9.31M	-3.30M	4.67M
Operating Cash Flow	46.09M	30.88M	12.09M	1.96M	14.80M	14.56M
Investing Cash Flow	-27.06M	-18.39M	-6.74M	-10.96M	-23.21M	-15.76M
Financing Cash Flow	-624.96K	-885.34K	-1.27M	3.89M	14.24M	-5.38M

Serabi Gold Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 316.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:SRB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 316 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 317.95, below the 50-day MA of 323.04, and above the 200-day MA of 245.81, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 7.91 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.34 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:SRB.

Serabi Gold Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ALTN	78 Outperform	£431.86M	2.17	50.11%	―	61.98%	164.33%
SRB	73 Outperform	£260.53M	4.30	35.69%	―	44.89%	120.82%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
AAU	54 Neutral	£51.79M	57.47	5.54%	―	―	―
KEFI	50 Neutral	£188.14M	-2.70	-9.19%	―	―	―
AAZ	47 Neutral	£297.29M	13.71	-11.68%	―	129.53%	70.68%

Serabi Gold Corporate Events

Serabi Gold Says Operations Unaffected by Incidents at Brazilian Mines

Serabi Gold has confirmed that last week’s incidents at its Palito Complex and Coringa mine in northern Brazil did not disrupt mining or milling activities, which continue to run in line with budget. The company reports full compliance with relevant regulatory protocols, ongoing support for affected families and employees, and an advanced internal review of health and safety procedures, signalling an effort to reinforce workplace safety and maintain operational and stakeholder confidence despite the recent events.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:SRB) stock is a Buy with a £419.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Serabi Gold stock, see the GB:SRB Stock Forecast page.

Serabi Gold Confirms Worker Fatality at Palito Mine, Operations Largely Unaffected

Serabi Gold has reported a fatal accident involving an underground traffic incident at its Palito Complex in Brazil on 30 January 2026, resulting in the death of one employee and no other injuries. The company has notified Brazilian authorities, who are conducting an investigation, and production in the affected area is expected to resume within days while overall mining operations remain otherwise unaffected. Management has expressed condolences to the family and colleagues of the deceased, highlighted that this is the second employee fatality in a short period despite a strong recent safety record, and pledged an immediate review of the effectiveness and safety of all operations, underscoring the heightened focus on workforce safety and potential scrutiny of its health and safety practices.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:SRB) stock is a Buy with a £405.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Serabi Gold stock, see the GB:SRB Stock Forecast page.

Serabi Gold Confirms Fatal Accident at Coringa Mine, Operations Largely Unaffected

Serabi Gold has reported a fatal accident at its Coringa underground mine in northern Brazil, where one employee died following an incident at a production face on 25 January 2026; no other workers were injured. The company has notified Brazilian authorities, is cooperating with ongoing investigations and has temporarily halted production only in the affected area, with mining elsewhere continuing as normal and output from the incident zone expected to resume within days, underscoring both the operational and reputational importance of safety management for the company and its stakeholders. Serabi’s management has expressed condolences to the deceased worker’s family, is providing support and counselling to staff, and has emphasized that its immediate priority is the safety and wellbeing of employees, a key concern for regulators, investors and communities around the Coringa development.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:SRB) stock is a Buy with a £424.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Serabi Gold stock, see the GB:SRB Stock Forecast page.

Serabi Gold Delivers Record 2025 Output and Boosts Guidance on Coringa Ramp-Up

Serabi Gold reported record annual gold production of 44,169 ounces for 2025, an 18% year-on-year increase that met guidance, driven largely by the ramp-up of the Coringa Mine and the successful use of an ore sorter to treat previously stockpiled lower-grade ore. Fourth-quarter output rose 15% to 11,534 ounces, horizontal development advanced 45% to 4,535 metres, and net cash climbed to $42.1 million amid higher gold prices, leaving the balance sheet stronger despite loan refinancing. Management highlighted progress on its multi-phase growth strategy, including mechanised mining at Coringa, development of additional ore zones, and a 30,000-metre brownfield drilling campaign that has already extended mineralised trends at both Coringa and the Palito Complex. For 2026, Serabi is guiding consolidated production of 53,000 to 57,000 ounces and plans a further 30,000 metres of brownfield exploration, positioning the company for potential resource expansion and continued production and cash flow growth, while supporting its recently launched shareholder return policy.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:SRB) stock is a Buy with a £350.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Serabi Gold stock, see the GB:SRB Stock Forecast page.

Serabi Gold Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results with Increased Production and Profit

Serabi Gold has reported strong financial and operational results for the first nine months of 2025, with a 19% increase in gold production compared to the same period in 2024, totaling 32,634 ounces. The company’s EBITDA nearly doubled to $48.2 million, driven by higher gold prices and increased production. The company closed the quarter with a cash balance of $38.8 million, and a net cash inflow from operations of $34.3 million, demonstrating robust cash generation. The average gold price received was $3,244 per ounce, and the All-In Sustaining Cost was $1,816 per ounce. Serabi Gold’s continued focus on operational excellence and exploration aims to increase resources to the 1.5-2.0Moz range, positioning the company for further growth into 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:SRB) stock is a Buy with a £305.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Serabi Gold stock, see the GB:SRB Stock Forecast page.