Metals Exploration (MTL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £452.84M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 5.20M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): -0.77
• Revenue Growth: 26.71%
• EPS Growth: -119.70%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 786
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): <0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 2,959,712,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,323,093
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,201,041
• PEG Ratio: -0.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.70
• P/FCF Ratio: 1.68
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: 16.50p ▲(16.20% Upside)

The score is primarily supported by strong financial performance (revenue growth, improved margins, and robust cash flow). Technicals add support via a clear uptrend, but overbought momentum readings increase near-term risk. Valuation detracts due to a negative P/E and no dividend yield data.

Positive Factors

Sustained Revenue Growth

Consistent multi-year revenue expansion and a 26.7% growth metric signal scalable production and stronger market penetration. This durable top-line momentum supports continued cash generation and funds reinvestment into exploration and development over the next several quarters.

Improving Profit Margins

Substantially higher gross margins indicate improving operational efficiency and cost controls across operations. Sustained margin expansion enhances resilience to metal price cycles and underpins longer-term free cash flow and internal funding capacity for project development.

Strong Cash Generation

Robust operating and free cash flow conversion demonstrates the business can fund capex, exploration and debt servicing from operations. Persistent cash generation reduces reliance on external financing and supports project advancement and shareholder optionality over time.

Negative Factors

Meaningful Remaining Liabilities

Although equity has recovered, elevated liabilities relative to assets leave the company exposed if revenue growth decelerates. Substantial obligations can constrain investment flexibility and increase refinancing risk during commodity-driven downturns over the medium term.

Volatile Profitability / EPS Decline

Deeply negative EPS growth and reported net income volatility indicate earnings instability. Persistent swings in profitability impair planning, make sustained dividend or buyback policies difficult, and weaken the company's ability to self-fund large development projects.

Commodity Price Exposure

Dependence on gold and silver prices creates structural revenue and margin sensitivity to global commodity cycles. Long-term project economics and cash flows can shift materially with metal prices, increasing operational planning risk and capital allocation uncertainty.

Metals Exploration Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Metals Exploration plc identifies, acquires, explores for, and develop mining properties in the Western Pacific Rim region. The company primarily explores for precious and base metals. It owns 100% interest in the Runruno gold-molybdenum project located north of the Philippines. Metals Exploration plc was incorporated in 2004 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

Metals Exploration generates revenue primarily through the sale of precious metals, particularly gold and silver, extracted from its mining operations. The company employs a revenue model based on the production and sale of these metals at market prices, which can fluctuate based on global commodity markets. Key revenue streams include the direct sale of mined gold and silver, as well as potential off-take agreements with larger mining companies or commodity traders. Additionally, MTL may benefit from partnerships with local and international firms that provide technology, expertise, and capital investment, further enhancing its operational efficiency and profitability. The company's earnings are also influenced by factors such as mining costs, exploration success, and regulatory developments in the regions where it operates.

Metals Exploration Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue growth and improved margins support a solid operating profile, and cash generation is notably strong. The main offset is balance-sheet risk: while equity has improved from prior negative levels and leverage metrics have gotten better, liabilities remain meaningful and profitability has shown some volatility.

Income Statement

Metals Exploration has shown strong revenue growth over the past few years, increasing from $94.3 million in 2019 to $191.1 million in 2024. The company has successfully improved its gross profit margin, demonstrating efficient cost management, with the margin rising from approximately 19.6% in 2019 to 32.7% in 2024. The net profit margin has also been enhanced, though volatility in net income from 2023 to 2024 suggests some fluctuations in profitability. Overall, profitability metrics such as EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, indicating solid operational performance.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows improved equity over time, with stockholders' equity increasing significantly from a negative position in 2019. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved, reflecting reduced financial risk, although total liabilities remain substantial relative to assets. The equity ratio has risen, indicating a stronger equity position against total assets, which is a positive sign of financial stability. However, the high leverage in previous years suggests potential risk if revenue growth slows.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals strong operational cash flow, with consistent growth in free cash flow, showcasing the company's ability to generate cash. The operating cash flow to net income ratio has been healthy, highlighting effective cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating good cash conversion from operations. The company has effectively managed capital expenditures, contributing to the positive cash flow situation.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	169.25M	191.15M	166.68M	124.41M	129.84M	122.10M
Gross Profit	72.29M	62.52M	37.26M	32.74M	37.87M	38.84M
EBITDA	51.83M	90.25M	181.78M	44.60M	45.71M	43.45M
Net Income	-12.75M	25.59M	119.25M	8.75M	11.29M	9.41M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	272.94M	174.29M	181.48M	120.61M	129.65M	144.24M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	45.92M	4.05M	340.00K	861.07K	4.74M	8.93M
Total Debt	0.00	6.89M	23.90M	81.98M	102.69M	127.41M
Total Liabilities	37.75M	40.74M	47.55M	102.84M	120.12M	145.35M
Stockholders Equity	234.80M	133.15M	133.93M	17.76M	9.52M	-1.11M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	62.92M	79.42M	64.31M	29.96M	34.59M	15.32M
Operating Cash Flow	80.73M	85.47M	74.56M	38.19M	46.52M	28.13M
Investing Cash Flow	-39.72M	-8.90M	-10.25M	-8.23M	-11.87M	-12.56M
Financing Cash Flow	-9.69M	-45.69M	-64.80M	-33.82M	-39.67M	-12.00M

Metals Exploration Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 14.20
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:MTL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 14.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.78, below the 50-day MA of 14.33, and above the 200-day MA of 12.37, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.55 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.21 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GB:MTL.

Metals Exploration Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ALTN	78 Outperform	£418.19M	11.56	50.11%	―	61.98%	164.33%
SRB	73 Outperform	£248.03M	5.87	35.69%	―	44.89%	120.82%
MTL	70 Outperform	£452.84M	-14.29	-7.90%	―	26.71%	-119.70%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
AAZ	56 Neutral	£345.31M	-50.34	-11.68%	―	129.53%	70.68%
AAU	54 Neutral	£46.43M	15.83	5.54%	―	―	―
KEFI	50 Neutral	£156.82M	-46.33	-9.19%	―	―	―

Metals Exploration Corporate Events

Metals Exploration Delivers Record 2025 Cash Flow as Runruno Winds Down and La India Advances

Metals Exploration reported a record financial performance for 2025, with gold revenue rising to US$208.4 million and pre-tax free cash flow reaching US$115.3 million, supported by higher realised gold prices and solid output from the Runruno mine despite temporary disruptions from a typhoon and earlier processing issues. Runruno produced 65,287 ounces of gold for the year, at the lower end of revised guidance and with higher all-in sustaining costs, and is expected to deliver 50,000–60,000 ounces in 2026 as it approaches the end of its life, while the debt-free company accelerates development of the La India project in Nicaragua, now 33% complete and ahead of schedule, positioning it to replace Runruno’s cash flows and underpin future growth even as exploration at Dupax in the Philippines has failed so far to identify a near-term production opportunity.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MTL) stock is a Hold with a £20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metals Exploration stock, see the GB:MTL Stock Forecast page.

Metals Exploration Raises Equity Through Option Exercises and Updates Voting Rights

Metals Exploration PLC has received notices for the exercise of options over 18,815,760 new ordinary shares, at an average price of £0.0103, raising approximately £193,627 in fresh equity. The new shares are expected to be admitted to trading on AIM around 23 January 2026, taking the company’s issued share capital to 3,259,097,368 ordinary shares, of which 299,385,458 are held in treasury, leaving 2,959,711,910 voting shares in circulation. The updated share count and voting rights figure will be used by investors to assess disclosure thresholds and any required notifications under UK transparency rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MTL) stock is a Hold with a £16.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metals Exploration stock, see the GB:MTL Stock Forecast page.

Metals Exploration Confirms Post-Offer Intentions, Delays Manikbel Drilling Timeline

Metals Exploration plc has confirmed to the UK Takeover Panel that it has complied with its stated post‑offer intentions following its recommended acquisition of Condor Gold plc, completed via a scheme of arrangement on 15 January 2025, as required under the City Code on Takeovers and Mergers. The company noted one deviation from its original plans at the Manikbel prospect in the Abra tenement, where a planned 6,000-metre drilling campaign and initial mineral resource estimate have been delayed to allow for an indigenous peoples’ consultation process, pushing the start of drilling to the first half of 2026 and the targeted resource estimate to the fourth quarter of 2026, potentially extending the timeline for realizing value from this exploration asset.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MTL) stock is a Hold with a £16.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metals Exploration stock, see the GB:MTL Stock Forecast page.

Metals Exploration Confirms Warrant Exercises and Updated Voting Rights

Metals Exploration plc has received notices for the exercise of warrants over 39,470 new ordinary shares at an exercise price of £0.0605 per share, raising £2,388 in additional capital. The new shares are expected to be admitted to trading on AIM around 6 January 2026, after which the company will have 3,240,281,608 ordinary shares in issue, with 299,385,458 held in treasury and 2,940,896,150 total voting rights, a figure shareholders will use to assess disclosure obligations under UK transparency rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MTL) stock is a Hold with a £14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metals Exploration stock, see the GB:MTL Stock Forecast page.

Metals Exploration Advances La India Gold Project Ahead of Schedule

Metals Exploration has announced significant progress in the development and construction of its La India gold project in Nicaragua, which is ahead of schedule with 24% completion. The project benefits from improved community relations and a strengthened local management team, with key infrastructure and processing plant upgrades underway. The plant’s capacity has been increased to 1.8 million tonnes per annum, and the project is fully funded by cash flow from the Runruno gold mine. The company expects to deliver first gold by Q4 2026, with ongoing exploration expanding resource potential.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MTL) stock is a Hold with a £14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metals Exploration stock, see the GB:MTL Stock Forecast page.

Metals Exploration Announces La India Project Expansion Potential

Metals Exploration PLC has announced an extension to its La India gold project in Nicaragua, revealing potential for significant expansion of the Phase 1 North pit. Recent channel sampling has identified new high-grade mineralisation, offering low-cost, high-impact opportunities for growth. The company plans a high-priority drill programme to validate these findings and explore further expansion possibilities, which could enhance the project’s economics and increase recoverable ounces.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MTL) stock is a Hold with a £11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metals Exploration stock, see the GB:MTL Stock Forecast page.

Metals Exploration PLC Releases Updated Investor Presentation

Metals Exploration PLC has announced the availability of its updated investor presentation online, which could provide stakeholders with valuable insights into the company’s current operations and strategic direction. This update may impact the company’s market positioning by offering transparency and potentially attracting investor interest.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MTL) stock is a Hold with a £11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metals Exploration stock, see the GB:MTL Stock Forecast page.

Metals Exploration Resumes Operations at Runruno Site

Metals Exploration PLC announced the resumption of gold processing operations at its Runruno site after a five-day halt due to a power outage caused by Super-typhoon Uwan. The restoration of mains power earlier than anticipated marks a positive development for the company, allowing it to continue its operations and potentially minimizing the impact of the disruption on its production targets.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MTL) stock is a Hold with a £13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metals Exploration stock, see the GB:MTL Stock Forecast page.

Metals Exploration Revises Production Guidance Following Typhoon Disruption

Metals Exploration PLC announced that operations at its Runruno mine in the Philippines were disrupted by Super-typhoon Uwan, which caused damage to infrastructure and temporarily halted processing activities. Despite the challenges, the company reported no injuries and minimal material damage, with mining operations resuming shortly after the typhoon. However, the disruption, along with previous issues, led to a downward revision of the company’s annual gold production guidance from 70,000-75,000 ounces to 65,000-70,000 ounces. The company is focused on maximizing value from its operations and supporting the local community while continuing its development work in Nicaragua.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MTL) stock is a Hold with a £13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metals Exploration stock, see the GB:MTL Stock Forecast page.

Metals Exploration PLC Secures Top Industry Awards for Sustainability and Safety

Metals Exploration PLC has been recognized with several prestigious awards by the Philippine Government, including the Presidential Mineral Industry Environmental Award in the Surface Mining Operation Category for the fourth consecutive year. These accolades highlight the company’s commitment to environmental protection, health and safety, and community development. Additionally, the company was the 1st Runner up in the ASEAN Mineral Awards for Mineral Processing, further cementing its reputation for sustainable development and excellence in the mining sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MTL) stock is a Hold with a £13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metals Exploration stock, see the GB:MTL Stock Forecast page.