Pan African Resources (PAF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £2.38B
• Dividend Yield: 1.35%
• Average Volume (3M): 8.82M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 21.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.94
• Revenue Growth: 40.46%
• EPS Growth: 66.57%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 2,700
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): 0.04
• Shares Outstanding: 2,027,313,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 8,238,263
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 8,822,637
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.11
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.11
• P/FCF Ratio: -16.12
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £125.00
• Price Target Upside: 5.22% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: 146.00p ▲(22.90% Upside)

Pan African Resources demonstrates strong financial performance and technical momentum, supported by strategic corporate developments. The main risks include cash flow challenges and operational safety issues. The stock is fairly valued, with positive future growth prospects.

Positive Factors

High margins and strong revenue growth

Sustained high gross and net margins alongside 46% revenue growth indicate durable operational efficiency and pricing power. This supports ongoing cash generation capacity, funds for reinvestment and dividends, and resilience to commodity price volatility over the medium term.

Long-life, low-cost surface and tailings assets

Shifting to long-life, low-cost surface remining and a nearly 20-year MTR life materially lowers unit costs and capital intensity. Longer life-of-mine profiles improve production visibility, reduce restart risk and support steady free cash flow generation across multiple years.

Meaningful net-debt reduction and degearing plan

Rapid debt paydown strengthens the balance sheet, cuts interest expense and increases financial flexibility. A credible path to being net-debt free by 2026 enhances capacity for capital allocation, growth investment and sustainable dividend policy over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Sharp decline in free cash flow

A near-100% drop in free cash flow signals weaker conversion of profits into spendable cash, tightening funding for sustaining capex, debt reduction and dividends. Unless cash generation normalizes, liquidity strain could constrain long-term investment and strategic optionality.

Serious safety incidents at underground operations

Fatal accidents create sustained operational, regulatory and reputational risk. Expect increased compliance costs, possible production stoppages and stricter oversight that can raise unit costs and slow execution, materially affecting medium-term operational reliability.

Hedging losses raising unit costs

Material hedging-related opportunity costs erode margins and introduce earnings volatility despite strong operating performance. Persistent hedging losses or mismatched hedging policy can reduce long-term cash flow predictability and impair returns on capital employed.

Pan African Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Pan African Resources PLC engages in the mining, extraction, production, and the sale of gold in South Africa. Its flagship projects include the Barberton gold project that consists of three underground mines, including Fairview, Sheba, and New Consort located in the Barberton Greenstone Belt; and Elikhulu tailings retreatment plant in Southern Africa. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is based in Johannesburg, South Africa.

How the Company Makes Money

Pan African Resources generates revenue primarily through the sale of gold produced from its mining operations. The company operates several mines and processing facilities, where it extracts gold ore, processes it, and sells the refined gold. Key revenue streams include the direct sale of gold bullion to international markets and agreements with gold refineries. Additionally, PAF may benefit from fluctuating gold prices, which can significantly impact earnings. The company also engages in various cost-saving initiatives and operational efficiencies to enhance profit margins. Partnerships with local communities and stakeholders help secure operational licenses and support, contributing to the company's stability and growth in the competitive mining sector.

Pan African Resources Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Pan African Resources shows strong revenue growth and profitability, with a robust balance sheet. However, the significant decline in free cash flow is a concern, indicating the need for better cash management.

Income Statement

Pan African Resources has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 46.21% increase in the latest annual report. The company maintains robust profitability with a gross profit margin of 41.82% and a net profit margin of 26.22%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also healthy at 40.28% and 46.65%, respectively, indicating efficient operations and cost management. Overall, the income statement reflects a positive growth trajectory and strong profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.35, suggesting a balanced approach to leveraging. The return on equity is impressive at 25.80%, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 54.64%, reflecting a solid equity base relative to total assets. While the company is well-capitalized, the increase in total debt over recent years should be monitored.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals challenges with free cash flow, which has seen a significant decline, resulting in a negative free cash flow growth rate of -96.72%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.88, indicating that operating cash flow is slightly below net income. The negative free cash flow to net income ratio highlights potential issues in cash generation relative to profits. Improving free cash flow generation will be crucial for future financial stability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	543.05M	540.03M	373.80M	321.61M	376.37M	368.91M
Gross Profit	225.07M	225.85M	131.37M	102.42M	121.40M	124.57M
EBITDA	246.20M	251.91M	143.01M	115.17M	105.22M	144.90M
Net Income	165.17M	141.60M	79.38M	61.14M	75.14M	74.69M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.00B	1.00B	686.07M	500.94M	457.09M	483.09M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	49.53M	49.53M	26.33M	34.77M	26.99M	35.13M
Total Debt	193.63M	193.63M	130.73M	56.84M	38.96M	58.69M
Total Liabilities	457.84M	457.84M	321.97M	206.34M	162.48M	199.46M
Stockholders Equity	548.83M	548.83M	365.22M	295.12M	294.78M	283.63M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-13.69M	-3.76M	-75.44M	-12.70M	27.32M	37.80M
Operating Cash Flow	191.78M	154.86M	90.80M	100.12M	110.01M	82.24M
Investing Cash Flow	-192.35M	-149.85M	-169.38M	-112.73M	-81.39M	-44.15M
Financing Cash Flow	19.48M	17.46M	68.98M	24.87M	-32.36M	-44.47M

Pan African Resources Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 118.80
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:PAF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 118.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 116.60, above the 50-day MA of 102.26, and above the 200-day MA of 69.38, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 5.43 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:PAF.

Pan African Resources Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SRB	86 Outperform	£245.38M	7.15	35.69%	―	44.89%	120.82%
ALTN	78 Outperform	£366.26M	11.21	50.11%	―	61.98%	164.33%
PAF	77 Outperform	£2.38B	21.48	31.72%	1.35%	40.46%	66.57%
GGP	74 Outperform	£3.76B	786.94	―	―	―	―
HOC	74 Outperform	£2.52B	23.09	24.43%	0.31%	35.83%	397.32%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
AAZ	56 Neutral	£317.87M	-45.64	-11.68%	―	129.53%	70.68%

Pan African Resources Corporate Events

Pan African Resources Expands Market Presence with Dual Listing

Pan African Resources has announced the application for the admission of one ordinary share to be listed and traded on both the London Stock Exchange and the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. This move, following a clerical omission, is expected to enhance the company’s market presence and trading flexibility, potentially impacting its operations and stakeholder interests positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:PAF) stock is a Buy with a £121.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pan African Resources stock, see the GB:PAF Stock Forecast page.