Greatland Resources (GGP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £4.04B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.72M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 5.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.22
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: UK
• Employees: 32
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 672,906,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,346,472
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,722,582
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.74
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.84
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.77
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £681.42
• Price Target Upside: 13.40% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: 670.00 p ▲(11.50% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/23/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/23/26

The score is driven primarily by the sharp improvement in FY2025 financial performance (high margins, strong cash conversion, and low leverage). Technicals remain supportive due to a strong uptrend, but overbought signals raise near-term risk. The very high P/E meaningfully drags the overall score on valuation.

Positive Factors

High FY2025 Profitability

FY2025 gross (~52%), operating (~43%) and net (~35%) margins indicate the company can operate at strong margins at scale. Durable high margins improve resilience to cost fluctuations, support reinvestment and creditor confidence, and suggest a viable operating model if execution and commodity markets remain supportive.

Cash Generation Quality

Operating cash flow at ~1.9x net income shows strong cash conversion and earnings quality. Reliable cash generation enhances the company's ability to fund development, service obligations and exploration internally, reducing reliance on dilutive equity or expensive debt over a multi-quarter horizon.

Low Leverage / Flexibility

Very low debt-to-equity (~0.02) and a stronger equity base provide material financial flexibility. This lowers refinancing risk, supports capital allocation to Havieron and exploration, and improves the company’s ability to withstand commodity cycles without immediate recourse to external financing.

Negative Factors

Limited Operating Track Record

The FY2025 profitability is an abrupt reversal following years of pre-revenue and losses, so there is limited historical evidence the company can sustain these results through cycles. The short operating track record increases execution risk and uncertainty about long-term margin durability.

Volatile Cash Flows

Historic negative OCF/FCF and large swings in FCF growth imply cash generation is sensitive to investment timing and operations. Such volatility can force external financing or project delays when investment needs or commodity prices change, constraining long-term strategic plans.

Project Concentration Risk

Heavy reliance on a single major asset (Havieron) concentrates execution, regulatory and commodity risk. Outcomes depend on that project's development, partner terms and operational delivery, limiting diversification and amplifying downside if project or regional issues arise.

Greatland Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Greatland Gold plc engages in the exploration and development of natural resources in the United Kingdom and Australia. It explores for gold, copper, cobalt, and nickel deposits. The company holds 100% interest in the Ernest Giles project, Panorama project, and Bromus project located in Western Australia. It also has 100% interest in the Firetower project and Warrentinna project situated in Tasmania. The company has an option to acquire 100% interest in the Pascalle tenement and Taunton tenement, as well as two tenement applications located in Paterson province of Western Australia. Greatland Gold plc was incorporated in 2005 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

Greatland Resources makes money through its economic interests in mining projects, primarily via its ownership stake in the Havieron gold-copper project, where value is realized from the sale of produced commodities (gold and copper) once mined and processed. Revenue generation is therefore tied to (i) production volumes attributable to its ownership interest, (ii) realized commodity prices for gold and copper, and (iii) operating and capital costs associated with developing and running the mine and related infrastructure. The company’s earnings can also be influenced by project-level agreements and partner-operated development/operations at Havieron; however, specific commercial terms, counterparties, and the exact mechanisms of cash flows (e.g., offtake arrangements, pricing formulas, or management/processing fees) are null if not publicly specified in the provided context. Outside of production-linked cash flows, the company may also create value through exploration success and project advancement (which can support asset revaluations, farm-outs, joint ventures, or asset sales), but whether and how much it earns from such transactions in a given period is null without specific disclosed deals.

Greatland Resources Financial Statement Overview

Summary

FY2025 marks a major inflection with meaningful revenue scale, strong profitability (gross ~52%, operating ~43%, net ~35%), and conservative leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.02). Cash generation is solid with operating cash flow exceeding net income (~1.9x), but the profile is still new after multiple pre-revenue/negative cash-flow years, adding durability and volatility risk.

Income Statement

FY2025 shows a step-change to meaningful scale and profitability, with strong gross profitability (~52%) and healthy operating and net profitability (~43% and ~35%, respectively). This is a sharp reversal from multiple prior years with no revenue and consistent losses, so the trajectory is highly positive but still carries execution and sustainability risk given the abrupt transition and limited history of operating at this revenue base.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is very conservative in FY2025 (debt is low versus equity; debt-to-equity ~0.02), and equity has expanded materially, supporting financial flexibility. Returns on equity are strong (~25%) in FY2025, but the company previously operated with much higher leverage and negative returns, highlighting that the balance-sheet strength is recent and should be monitored through a full cycle.

Cash Flow

FY2025 cash generation is strong with solid operating cash flow and positive free cash flow, and cash generation exceeds net income (operating cash flow is ~1.9x net income), suggesting good earnings quality. The main concern is volatility: prior years had negative operating and free cash flow, and FY2025 shows a steep decline in free cash flow growth versus the prior period, implying cash flows may be sensitive to investment cadence and operating variability.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	929.00M	459.06M	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	480.56M	237.83M	-187.00K	-315.00K	-347.69K	-240.83K
EBITDA	488.90M	217.36M	-13.85M	-18.96M	-11.00M	-5.26M
Net Income	311.45M	161.72M	-14.87M	-21.12M	-11.37M	-5.52M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.33B	1.01B	89.96M	105.04M	55.27M	24.00M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	470.14M	275.55M	4.81M	31.15M	18.80M	6.21M
Total Debt	19.24M	15.14M	41.80M	41.91M	43.38M	12.54M
Total Liabilities	485.69M	371.74M	49.01M	52.56M	49.55M	19.84M
Stockholders Equity	843.05M	642.59M	40.95M	52.48M	5.73M	4.15M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	434.07M	201.06M	-24.59M	-25.99M	-26.52M	-16.27M
Operating Cash Flow	616.53M	288.24M	-12.20M	-11.47M	-5.97M	-2.71M
Investing Cash Flow	-218.60M	-221.76M	-12.99M	-26.85M	-28.96M	-13.55M
Financing Cash Flow	-11.33M	198.81M	-918.00K	61.55M	38.39M	16.50M

Greatland Resources Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 600.90
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:GGP, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 600.9 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 672.59, below the 50-day MA of 651.46, and above the 200-day MA of 424.30, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -5.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.44 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GB:GGP.

Greatland Resources Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ALTN	78 Outperform	£312.96M	2.17	40.73%	―	61.98%	164.33%
PAF	76 Outperform	£2.92B	5.55	31.72%	1.35%	40.46%	66.57%
GGP	73 Outperform	£4.04B	5.21	41.93%	―	―	―
SRB	73 Outperform	£242.35M	4.30	34.96%	―	44.89%	120.82%
HOC	71 Outperform	£3.31B	17.24	23.50%	0.31%	35.83%	397.32%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
AAZ	47 Neutral	£274.42M	13.71	-11.68%	―	129.53%	70.68%

Greatland Resources Corporate Events

Greatland Resources posts strong half-year profit as Telfer cash flow powers Havieron growth

Greatland Resources reported strong half-year results to 31 December 2025, driven by robust performance at its Telfer mine and high commodity prices. The company delivered net revenue of A$977.3m, EBITDA of A$560.3m and NPAT of A$342.9m, generated operating cash flow of A$658.5m, and ended the period debt free with A$948.3m in cash, while maintaining disciplined cost control and improved safety metrics.

Operationally, Greatland produced 167,163 ounces of gold at an all-in sustaining cost of A$2,176/oz and advanced growth initiatives across Telfer and Havieron. Completion of the Havieron feasibility study confirmed a long-life, low-cost gold-copper development with a base case post-tax NPV of A$2.9bn, underpinned by planned pre-production capex of A$1,065m to be funded from cash, cash flow and a new A$500m debt facility, reinforcing the company’s growth profile and integrated Telfer-Havieron strategy.

The period saw A$177.0m invested in growth, including mine development, tailings expansion and extensive drilling aimed at extending mine life and upgrading resources at Telfer. With environmental approvals for Havieron progressing and additional funding capacity through a Tier 1 lending syndicate and hedging focused on downside price protection, Greatland is positioning itself to scale production and strengthen its standing as a significant gold-copper producer in Western Australia.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GGP) stock is a Hold with a £13.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greatland Resources stock, see the GB:GGP Stock Forecast page.

Greatland Resources Names Acting COO as Tyrrell Steps Down

Greatland Resources has announced a senior management change, with Chief Operating Officer Simon Tyrrell resigning and stepping down from his role, though he will remain available to support the transition until 30 June 2026. The company has launched a formal search for a permanent successor, signalling its intent to maintain operational continuity and stable leadership through the transition.

The board has appointed long-serving Group Mining Engineer Otto Richter as Acting COO, leveraging his 25-plus years of experience in open pit and underground gold mining and his deep involvement in Greatland’s operational and mine planning decisions. His interim appointment is expected to provide continuity in the management of the Telfer and Havieron assets while the company reassesses its leadership structure and supports ongoing project execution.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GGP) stock is a Hold with a £13.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greatland Resources stock, see the GB:GGP Stock Forecast page.