Pan African Resources PLC (GB:PAF)
LSE:PAF
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Pan African Resources
(LSE:PAF)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
158.00 p
▲(6.90% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/19/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial profitability and growth, reinforced by a bullish technical uptrend. The latest earnings call adds confidence via upbeat production guidance, strong recent results, and rapid debt reduction, while valuation is less supportive (P/E ~26) and financial risk remains centered on weaker free cash flow and cost pressures.
Positive Factors
Strong revenue growth & margins
Material top-line expansion and above-average margins indicate durable operating leverage and efficient cost control. High EBITDA and net margins provide lasting capacity to fund growth, absorb cost shocks, and support dividends and reinvestment even if commodity cycles moderate.
Negative Factors
Weak free cash flow conversion
Severely impaired free cash flow conversion constrains the company's capacity to self‑fund expansion and dividends without relying on proceeds or further debt actions. Persistent FCF weakness raises long‑term refinancing and liquidity risks despite strong accounting profits.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong revenue growth & margins
Material top-line expansion and above-average margins indicate durable operating leverage and efficient cost control. High EBITDA and net margins provide lasting capacity to fund growth, absorb cost shocks, and support dividends and reinvestment even if commodity cycles moderate.
Read all positive factors
Pan African Resources (PAF) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£3.00B
Dividend Yield1.35%
Average Volume (3M)8.82M
Price to Earnings (P/E)5.5
Beta (1Y)1.43
Revenue Growth40.46%
EPS Growth66.57%
CountryUK
Employees2,700
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.05
Shares Outstanding2,027,313,500
10 Day Avg. Volume8,238,263
30 Day Avg. Volume8,822,637
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.11
Price to Sales (P/S)0.11
P/FCF Ratio-16.12
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£162.50Price Target Upside9.95% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.24
Revenue Forecast (FY)£1.18B
Pan African Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Pan African Resources PLC engages in the mining, extraction, production, and the sale of gold in South Africa. Its flagship projects include the Barberton gold project that consists of three underground mines, including Fairview, Sheba, and New Co...
How the Company Makes Money
PAF makes money primarily by producing and selling gold. Revenue is generated when the company extracts and/or processes gold-bearing material from its operations (including mining and surface-processing/tailings-type operations) and then sells th...
Pan African Resources Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive performance and outlook: material production growth (>50% H1), record revenue and earnings, exceptional cash‑flow generation (cash flows +588%), rapid de‑gearing and initiation of interim dividends. The business benefits from successful commissioning of MTR and Tennant, a clear multi‑asset growth pipeline (Soweto, Tennant scale‑up, Poplar, Warrego) and attractive margins on low‑cost assets like Elikhulu. Key challenges include a higher H1 all‑in sustaining cost (USD 1,874/oz) driven by currency moves, share‑based payments, royalties and third‑party processing; temporary lower grades at MTR and cost pressure from electricity and share‑based expenses; security risks from illegal mining and residual financing items to finalise. Overall, positives (record profitability, cash generation, project delivery and a strong organic growth pipeline) materially outweigh the operational and cost headwinds called out.Positive Updates
Significant Production Increase
Gold production increased by more than 50% in the half-year; full‑year guidance set at 275,000+ ounces with production weighted to H2 and FY27 expected to grow almost 40%, driven by MTR and Tennant ramp-ups.
Negative Updates
Higher‑than‑expected All‑in Sustaining Costs (H1)
H1 AISC was USD 1,874/oz, above prior guidance. Management attributes the overshoot to rand‑dollar exchange movements, increased share‑based payment expenses, higher royalties and processing of third‑party material.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Significant Production Increase
Gold production increased by more than 50% in the half-year; full‑year guidance set at 275,000+ ounces with production weighted to H2 and FY27 expected to grow almost 40%, driven by MTR and Tennant ramp-ups.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Pan African guided full‑year production of at least 275,000 oz (H2 weighted) and sees next‑year production moving closer to 300,000 oz, with near‑term growth of almost 40% driven by MTR and Tennant; MTR is expected to deliver 55–60k oz pa, Tennant 46–50k oz in FY26 (H1 ~16k oz) and to scale to ~100k oz pa within 3 years, Evander is guided at 50–54k oz for FY27 (life‑of‑mine upside to ~70k oz) and Poplar is being developed to target ~100k oz pa, while Soweto pre‑feasibility indicates 30–35k oz pa for an initial ~$160m capex (reserve >500k oz, >100Mt tailings). Cost guidance: H1 AISC was $1,874/oz and full‑year AISC is targeted at $1,820–1,870/oz (ZAR17/USD), with ~90% of the portfolio at ≈$1,700/oz; the group is unhedged and expects to be net‑debt free by month‑end after reducing net debt from $229m to $46m, and reported revenue up 157% to $487m, adjusted EBITDA +323%, earnings +207% to $148m, headline earnings +541% to $149m (HEPS $0.0734), and operating cash flow before dividends/tax/royalties/finance up 588% to $260m, enabling a record FY25 dividend of $0.37/share (USD44m) and an interim dividend of ZAR0.12/share.Pan African Resources Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 843.11M | 540.03M | 373.80M | 321.61M | 376.37M | 368.91M |
| Gross Profit | 437.41M | 225.85M | 131.37M | 102.42M | 121.40M | 124.57M |
| EBITDA | 453.33M | 251.91M | 143.01M | 115.17M | 105.22M | 144.90M |
| Net Income | 245.67M | 141.60M | 79.38M | 61.14M | 75.14M | 74.69M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.16B | 1.00B | 686.07M | 500.94M | 457.09M | 483.09M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 92.63M | 49.53M | 26.33M | 34.77M | 26.99M | 35.13M |
| Total Debt | 139.01M | 193.63M | 130.73M | 56.84M | 38.96M | 58.69M |
| Total Liabilities | 469.89M | 457.84M | 321.97M | 206.34M | 162.48M | 199.46M |
| Stockholders Equity | 689.93M | 548.83M | 365.22M | 295.12M | 294.78M | 283.63M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 260.61M | -3.76M | -75.44M | -12.70M | 27.32M | 37.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 390.71M | 154.86M | 90.80M | 100.12M | 110.01M | 82.24M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -132.79M | -149.85M | -169.38M | -112.73M | -81.39M | -44.15M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -194.81M | 17.46M | 68.98M | 24.87M | -32.36M | -44.47M |
Pan African Resources Technical Analysis
Positive
147.80
Price Trends
148.45
Negative
129.55
Positive
99.13
Positive
Market Momentum
-3.05
Negative
52.80
Neutral
93.54
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:PAF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 147.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 142.26, below the 50-day MA of 148.45, and above the 200-day MA of 99.13, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.54 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:PAF.
Pan African Resources Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | £336.20M | 2.17 | 40.73% | ― | 61.98% | 164.33% | |
76 Outperform | £3.00B | 5.55 | 39.66% | 1.35% | 40.46% | 66.57% | |
73 Outperform | £4.46B | 5.21 | 41.93% | ― | ― | ― | |
73 Outperform | £225.69M | 4.30 | 34.96% | ― | 44.89% | 120.82% | |
71 Outperform | £3.17B | 17.24 | 29.48% | 0.31% | 35.83% | 397.32% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
47 Neutral | £257.27M | 13.71 | -12.56% | ― | 129.53% | 70.68% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
GB:PAF
Pan African Resources
147.80
109.03
281.18%
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Pan African Resources Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsShareholder Meetings
Pan African Resources Shareholders Back Capital Reduction and 2024 Final Dividend
Positive
Mar 26, 2026
Pan African Resources’ shareholders have overwhelmingly approved all special resolutions at a general meeting, including the appropriation of profits for the 2024 final dividend, a share capital reduction through cancellation of the share pr...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Pan African Resources Executive Increases Stake with Modest Share Purchase
Positive
Mar 23, 2026
Pan African Resources has disclosed that its Executive for Technical Services and New Business, Hendrik Pretorius, has purchased 5,700 ordinary shares in the company on the London Stock Exchange. The on-market acquisition, completed on 20 March 20...
Other
Pan African CEO monetises portion of stake via collar and loan deal
Neutral
Mar 17, 2026
Pan African Resources has disclosed a set of share-related transactions by chief executive Cobus Loots, conducted via associated entity LTS Ventures on 12 March 2026. The dealings include the on-market sale of 100,000 ordinary shares, the executio...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.