Northern Bear (NTBR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £13.48M
• Dividend Yield: 2.02%
• Average Volume (3M): 31.90K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 1.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.36
• Revenue Growth: 29.61%
• EPS Growth: 174.25%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 411
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Construction
• EPS (TTM): 0.21
• Shares Outstanding: 13,750,276
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 41,033
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 31,898
• PEG Ratio: 0.05
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.40
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.11
• P/FCF Ratio: 1.61
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.21
• Revenue Forecast (FY): £89.00M

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: 124.00 p ▼(-8.15% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/11/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/11/26

Score is driven primarily by strong financial health (low leverage, improving profitability, and better cash generation) and an extremely low P/E valuation. Offsetting these positives, technical indicators show a clear short- to medium-term downtrend with oversold momentum.

Positive Factors

Balance sheet strength

A very low debt-to-equity ratio and a strong equity ratio provide durable financial flexibility for bidding, working-capital swings and downturns. This capital structure reduces refinancing risk and supports investment, dividends or acquisitive growth over the next several quarters.

Improved cash generation

A large, sustained rise in free cash flow and solid cash conversion metrics strengthen internal funding for capex, contract bonds and selective M&A. Improved cash generation increases resilience to project timing and funds recurring operations without relying on external financing.

Contract-based recurring revenue model

A business model built on contracts, recurring maintenance and cross-selling across specialist subsidiaries creates a steadier revenue base and higher customer lifetime value. This structural revenue mix supports predictability and margin preservation over multiple reporting periods.

Negative Factors

Thin net profit margin

A single-digit, sub-3% net margin leaves limited buffer against rising material or labour costs and competitive tendering. Small margin headroom makes long-term profitability sensitive to contract pricing, cost inflation and execution inefficiencies across projects.

Industry volatility

Operating in the construction and building-services sector exposes the group to cyclical public and private spending, project delays and tender volatility. These structural industry swings can pressure revenue visibility and margins across multiple quarters.

Past FCF fluctuations / execution risk

Although recent FCF growth is strong, historical variability points to execution and working-capital risk on projects. Inconsistent cash flows can constrain reinvestment, increase reliance on short-term funding for contract cycles, and amplify stress in slower demand periods.

Northern Bear Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Northern Bear PLC, together with its subsidiaries, provides building and support services to local authorities, housing associations, NHS trusts, universities, construction companies, and national house builders in Northern England. It operates through three segments: Roofing Activities, Materials Handling Activities, and Construction Activities. The company sells, supplies, hires, maintains, and services forklift trucks and warehouse equipment. It also provides roofing contractor services, such as roof slating, tiling, leadwork, felting and general roof repairs, specialist leadwork, and refurbishment and maintenance services for domestic, commercial, and public sector properties. In addition, the company is involved in the supply and fixing of passive fire protection systems, fire stopping systems, and acoustic insulations; heritage restoration; and the provision of building contractor services, such as planned responsive and reactive maintenance, extensions, restoration, and new build and refurbishment works. Further, it offers health and safety consultancy services; HD video and photography of buildings; commercial interior design and fitting services; electrical repair, installation, maintenance, and testing services; fire alarms, emergency lighting, and door access systems; and unmanned aerial imagery services, as well as sound insulation services. Northern Bear PLC was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Newcastle upon Tyne, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

Northern Bear makes money by generating revenue through its operating subsidiaries that deliver specialist building and property services. The core revenue model is contract-based: subsidiaries are paid for labour, materials, and project delivery on jobs such as roofing works, electrical installations and maintenance, fire and security systems work, and other building-services activities. Key revenue streams typically include (1) project/installation income from one-off works (e.g., refurbishment, replacement, fit-out, and installation projects) and (2) recurring maintenance and compliance-related income from ongoing service contracts and repeat call-outs (e.g., inspection, testing, repair, and planned preventative maintenance). Revenue is earned directly from customers—often commercial clients and public-sector bodies—through tenders/frameworks, negotiated contracts, and repeat business. Additional value can be created at the group level by coordinating cross-selling between subsidiaries (providing multiple services to the same customer or site) and by acquiring and integrating new specialist contractors to expand service coverage and geographic reach. Specific details on material partnerships, customer concentration, or exact revenue split by subsidiary/service are not available: null.

Northern Bear Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong fundamentals overall: revenue growth of 12.6% with improving gross (24.6%) and net (2.95%) margins. Balance sheet is a key strength with low debt-to-equity (0.14) and a solid equity ratio (52.4%). Cash flow improved sharply (free cash flow growth 203%), though prior free cash flow fluctuations suggest execution consistency remains important.

Income Statement

Northern Bear has shown a strong revenue growth rate of 12.6% in the latest year, with improving gross and net profit margins. The gross profit margin increased to 24.6%, and the net profit margin improved to 2.95%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins also show positive trends, indicating enhanced operational efficiency. However, the construction industry can be volatile, and maintaining these margins will be crucial.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet is robust, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.14, indicating prudent financial leverage. The return on equity stands at 10.33%, reflecting effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio of 52.4% suggests a strong capital structure, providing stability and reducing financial risk.

Cash Flow

Northern Bear's cash flow performance has significantly improved, with a free cash flow growth rate of 203% and a free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.74. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.43 indicates a healthy conversion of income into cash. However, past fluctuations in free cash flow highlight the need for consistent cash management.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021	Mar 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	89.91M	78.11M	68.68M	69.72M	61.10M	49.18M
Gross Profit	22.49M	19.22M	15.87M	13.93M	12.44M	8.44M
EBITDA	7.43M	4.98M	3.85M	3.33M	335.00K	-469.00K
Net Income	4.16M	2.31M	1.62M	1.59M	-1.33M	-1.79M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	47.19M	42.56M	39.35M	40.11M	39.03M	36.54M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.83M	3.97M	978.00K	3.15M	3.23M	2.11M
Total Debt	2.06M	3.23M	5.18M	2.24M	3.25M	1.60M
Total Liabilities	22.35M	20.25M	19.09M	17.55M	18.06M	14.25M
Stockholders Equity	24.84M	22.31M	20.26M	22.57M	20.98M	22.29M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	5.87M	5.50M	-1.32M	1.12M	248.00K	2.18M
Operating Cash Flow	7.92M	7.43M	683.00K	2.59M	2.00M	3.38M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.51M	-1.41M	-1.18M	-946.00K	-1.21M	-830.00K
Financing Cash Flow	-4.02M	-3.03M	-1.67M	-1.72M	333.00K	-4.09M

Northern Bear Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 135.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:NTBR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 135 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 112.03, above the 50-day MA of 125.67, and above the 200-day MA of 109.52, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -7.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 27.35 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:NTBR.

Northern Bear Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NTBR	74 Outperform	£13.48M	1.09	17.65%	2.02%	29.61%	174.25%
HSM	74 Outperform	£8.49M	3.92	8.12%	3.84%	-0.57%	32.71%
ECEL	70 Neutral	£109.88M	13.87	7.28%	3.97%	5.51%	-33.75%
ALU	66 Neutral	£88.72M	7.45	18.04%	4.63%	12.60%	6.64%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
TON	58 Neutral	£9.56M	36.16	-11.61%	―	-27.62%	-228.90%

Northern Bear Corporate Events

Northern Bear Discloses New Significant Shareholding by David Jay

Northern Bear plc, the AIM-quoted specialist building and support services group based in Northern England, has disclosed a change in its shareholder base. The company announced that investor David Jay now holds 365,500 ordinary shares, representing approximately 2.66% of Northern Bear’s issued share capital (excluding treasury shares), signalling a notable individual stake in the group’s equity structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:NTBR) stock is a Buy with a £178.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Bear stock, see the GB:NTBR Stock Forecast page.