Northern Bear (NTBR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £15.68M
• Dividend Yield: 2.02%
• Average Volume (3M): 31.90K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 1.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.16
• Revenue Growth: 29.61%
• EPS Growth: 174.25%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 411
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Construction
• EPS (TTM): 0.21
• Shares Outstanding: 13,750,276
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 41,033
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 31,898
• PEG Ratio: 0.05
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.40
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.11
• P/FCF Ratio: 1.61
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.21
• Revenue Forecast (FY): £89.00M

• Rating: 84 Outperform
• Price Target: 136.00p ▲(0.74% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 12/07/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 12/07/25

Northern Bear's stock is rated highly due to its strong financial performance, bullish technical indicators, and attractive valuation. The company's strategic investments and debt repayment further enhance its growth prospects. The absence of earnings call data does not detract from the positive outlook.

Positive Factors

Low leverage / strong capital structure

A low debt-to-equity ratio and a >50% equity ratio provide durable financial flexibility, reducing refinancing and solvency risk during industry cyclicality. This capital structure supports investment, targeted acquisitions and working-capital needs without straining cashflows over the next several quarters.

Improved cash generation

Steep free-cash-flow growth and healthy conversion ratios materially increase the group's ability to fund operations, reduce leverage and pursue incremental capex or bolt-on deals. Sustained cash generation improves resilience to project timing swings and supports shareholder returns over the medium term.

Revenue growth and margin improvement

Consistent revenue growth alongside rising gross and operating margins points to improving operational efficiency and potential pricing power. If maintained, these trends support higher cash flows and scalability of the specialist services model across the group's operating subsidiaries.

Negative Factors

Thin net profitability

A sub-3% net margin leaves limited buffer against cost inflation, contract disputes or warranty/claims in construction services. Sustaining earnings requires continued margin discipline and volume growth; otherwise small adverse cost or pricing shocks could materially depress net profits.

Free cash flow volatility risk

Although FCF jumped recently, historical variability suggests cash generation can swing with project timing and working-capital movements. Such volatility risks disrupting dividend capacity, debt reduction plans or funding for acquisitions absent conservative cash reserves or smoothing mechanisms.

Project-based and tender exposure

Dependence on one-off installations and public-sector/framework tenders creates revenue cyclicality and pricing pressure. Competitive bidding and public budget cycles reduce predictability of backlog and margins, making medium-term revenue and utilization more sensitive to external demand swings.

Northern Bear Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Northern Bear PLC, together with its subsidiaries, provides building and support services to local authorities, housing associations, NHS trusts, universities, construction companies, and national house builders in Northern England. It operates through three segments: Roofing Activities, Materials Handling Activities, and Construction Activities. The company sells, supplies, hires, maintains, and services forklift trucks and warehouse equipment. It also provides roofing contractor services, such as roof slating, tiling, leadwork, felting and general roof repairs, specialist leadwork, and refurbishment and maintenance services for domestic, commercial, and public sector properties. In addition, the company is involved in the supply and fixing of passive fire protection systems, fire stopping systems, and acoustic insulations; heritage restoration; and the provision of building contractor services, such as planned responsive and reactive maintenance, extensions, restoration, and new build and refurbishment works. Further, it offers health and safety consultancy services; HD video and photography of buildings; commercial interior design and fitting services; electrical repair, installation, maintenance, and testing services; fire alarms, emergency lighting, and door access systems; and unmanned aerial imagery services, as well as sound insulation services. Northern Bear PLC was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Newcastle upon Tyne, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

Northern Bear generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by selling building materials to contractors, builders, and DIY enthusiasts. The company capitalizes on the growing construction market by providing essential products needed for building and renovation projects. Additionally, Northern Bear earns income through its property development segment, which involves purchasing, developing, and selling residential and commercial properties. Key revenue streams include direct sales of construction materials, project contracts for construction and renovation services, and income from property sales. The company may also benefit from partnerships with suppliers and construction firms, enhancing its market reach and operational efficiency.

Northern Bear Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Northern Bear exhibits strong financial health with impressive revenue growth and profitability improvements. The balance sheet is solid, with low leverage and high equity, while cash flow management shows positive trends. Continued focus on maintaining margins and cash flow stability will be key to sustaining this performance in the construction industry.

Income Statement

Northern Bear has shown a strong revenue growth rate of 12.6% in the latest year, with improving gross and net profit margins. The gross profit margin increased to 24.6%, and the net profit margin improved to 2.95%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins also show positive trends, indicating enhanced operational efficiency. However, the construction industry can be volatile, and maintaining these margins will be crucial.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet is robust, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.14, indicating prudent financial leverage. The return on equity stands at 10.33%, reflecting effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio of 52.4% suggests a strong capital structure, providing stability and reducing financial risk.

Cash Flow

Northern Bear's cash flow performance has significantly improved, with a free cash flow growth rate of 203% and a free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.74. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.43 indicates a healthy conversion of income into cash. However, past fluctuations in free cash flow highlight the need for consistent cash management.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021	Mar 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	89.91M	78.11M	68.68M	69.72M	61.10M	49.18M
Gross Profit	22.49M	19.22M	15.87M	13.93M	12.44M	8.44M
EBITDA	7.43M	4.98M	3.85M	3.33M	335.00K	-469.00K
Net Income	4.16M	2.31M	1.62M	1.59M	-1.33M	-1.79M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	47.19M	42.56M	39.35M	40.11M	39.03M	36.54M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.83M	3.97M	978.00K	3.15M	3.23M	2.11M
Total Debt	2.06M	3.23M	5.18M	2.24M	3.25M	1.60M
Total Liabilities	22.35M	20.25M	19.09M	17.55M	18.06M	14.25M
Stockholders Equity	24.84M	22.31M	20.26M	22.57M	20.98M	22.29M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	5.87M	5.50M	-1.32M	1.12M	248.00K	2.18M
Operating Cash Flow	7.92M	7.43M	683.00K	2.59M	2.00M	3.38M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.51M	-1.41M	-1.18M	-946.00K	-1.21M	-830.00K
Financing Cash Flow	-4.02M	-3.03M	-1.67M	-1.72M	333.00K	-4.09M

Northern Bear Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 135.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:NTBR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 135 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 125.00, above the 50-day MA of 130.95, and above the 200-day MA of 107.57, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -5.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:NTBR.

Northern Bear Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NTBR	84 Outperform	£15.68M	1.09	18.10%	2.02%	29.61%	174.25%
HSM	74 Outperform	£8.49M	3.92	8.12%	3.84%	-0.57%	32.71%
ECEL	70 Neutral	£124.42M	13.87	7.23%	3.97%	5.51%	-33.75%
ALU	66 Neutral	£91.22M	7.45	25.06%	4.63%	12.60%	6.64%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
TON	58 Neutral	£10.12M	36.16	-11.61%	―	-27.62%	-228.90%

Northern Bear Corporate Events

Northern Bear Discloses New Significant Shareholding by David Jay

Northern Bear plc, the AIM-quoted specialist building and support services group based in Northern England, has disclosed a change in its shareholder base. The company announced that investor David Jay now holds 365,500 ordinary shares, representing approximately 2.66% of Northern Bear’s issued share capital (excluding treasury shares), signalling a notable individual stake in the group’s equity structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:NTBR) stock is a Buy with a £178.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Bear stock, see the GB:NTBR Stock Forecast page.