Mondi plc (MNDI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £3.63B
• Dividend Yield: 6.76%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.08M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 28.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.08
• Revenue Growth: 3.30%
• EPS Growth: -58.67%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 22,473
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Paper, Lumber & Forest Products
• EPS (TTM): 0.12
• Shares Outstanding: 441,412,540
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,514,387
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,084,797
• PEG Ratio: -1.16
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.97
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.61
• P/FCF Ratio: 21.54
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £936.52
• Price Target Upside: 13.57% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.53
• Revenue Forecast (FY): £7.81B

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: 839.00 p ▲(1.75% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/20/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/20/26

The score is held back primarily by pressured margins, earnings volatility, and uneven free-cash-flow conversion alongside rising leverage. Offsetting factors include improving near-term technical momentum, a high dividend yield, and management’s cash-focused plan with capex discipline, cost actions, and synergy progress.

Positive Factors

Integrated value chain

Mondi's vertically integrated paper-to-packaging model creates durable competitive advantages: control of pulp and paper inputs, in-house converting, and exposure to both commodity and value-added packaging. Integration supports margin capture, supply resilience and customer solutions across cycles.

Resilient cash-generative operations

Delivering roughly EUR 1.0bn underlying EBITDA in a prolonged downturn shows structural operational resilience. Stable EBITDA underpins operating cash generation, funds necessary capex and dividends, and provides a durable buffer to absorb cyclical revenue swings and fund strategic actions.

Cost discipline and M&A synergies

Management's focus on capex discipline, productivity programs and upgraded Schumacher synergies points to lasting structural cost savings. Lowered capex guidance and headcount reductions alongside EUR 32m of planned synergies should sustainably improve margins and cash conversion over a multi-year horizon.

Negative Factors

Margin pressure from weak pricing

Persistent price weakness in uncoated fine paper, pulp and parts of containerboard reflects structural demand softness and cyclicality. Prolonged weak pricing and reduced energy/credit income compress gross and net margins, limiting durable earnings recovery even if volumes stabilize.

Rising leverage and inconsistent FCF

A ~€0.9bn rise in net debt to €2.6bn (≈2.6x) pushes leverage toward the upper comfort band. Combined with thin and inconsistent free cash flow, this reduces financial flexibility for reinvestment or cyclical shocks, increasing the importance of sustaining cash generation and disciplined capex.

Commissioning and restructuring risks

Duino's current loss-making status and the need for further plant closures and workforce reductions indicate execution risk. Underperforming new capacity consumes cash and depresses margins until optimization; closures and restructuring also create one-off costs and operational disruption that can persist.

Mondi plc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mondi plc engages in the manufacture and sale of packaging and paper products in Africa, Western Europe, Emerging Europe, Russia, North America, South America, Asia, and Australia. It operates in Corrugated Packaging, Flexible Packaging, Engineered Materials, and Uncoated Fine Paper segments. The company offers flexible packaging, bags, and pouches; personal care components; release liners; functional films; corrugated solutions; industrial bags; barrier coatings; specialty Kraft and sack Kraft papers; containerboards; and office and professional printing papers. It serves customers in the agriculture, automotive, building and construction, chemicals and dangerous goods, food and beverages, graphic and photographic, home and personal care, medical and pharmaceutical, office and professional printing, paper and packaging converting, pet care, retail and e-commerce, and shipping and transport industries. Mondi plc was founded in 1967 and is based in Weybridge, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

Mondi makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling packaging and paper products to business customers. Its revenue model is largely based on (1) selling paper-based packaging solutions (such as corrugated packaging and flexible packaging products) that are produced by converting paper and other inputs into finished packaging formats, and (2) producing and selling paper grades (including kraft paper and other packaging papers) manufactured from pulp and fiber. Earnings are influenced by sales volumes, product mix (value-added converted packaging versus commodity-like paper grades), pricing (often linked to input-cost dynamics and market supply/demand), and the company’s degree of integration across pulp, paper, and converting operations, which can affect margins and cost competitiveness. Significant customer relationships typically include consumer goods, e-commerce, industrial, and other companies that require packaging for transport, protection, and retail presentation; specific partnerships: null.

Mondi plc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue rebounded strongly, but profitability and earnings quality are weak (low net margin and volatility). Leverage has risen versus 2024 and free-cash-flow conversion is inconsistent, limiting flexibility despite positive operating cash flow.

Income Statement

Revenue rebounded strongly in 2025 (annual revenue growth ~33.6%), but profitability has deteriorated materially versus prior years. Net margin is now low (~2.2% in 2025) and earnings have been volatile (loss in 2023, very strong profit in 2022), while gross margin also fell sharply in 2025 versus 2024—suggesting a tougher pricing/cost environment and less consistent earnings quality.

Balance Sheet

Leverage remains moderate with debt-to-equity at ~0.64 in 2025 (up from ~0.41 in 2024), indicating a higher debt load year-over-year but not extreme for the sector. Equity is substantial relative to total assets, yet returns on equity are currently modest (~3.4% in 2025) and well below the stronger levels seen in 2021–2022, pointing to weaker efficiency in converting the balance sheet into profits.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains positive and fairly solid (about 923M in 2025), but free cash flow is thin and inconsistent: negative in 2024 and modestly positive in 2025. Cash generation is not translating well into discretionary cash, with free cash flow running well below net income in 2025, raising questions around capital intensity/working-capital swings and limiting financial flexibility.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.52B	7.42B	7.33B	8.90B	6.97B
Gross Profit	1.24B	3.08B	2.74B	3.43B	2.76B
EBITDA	982.93M	918.00M	1.21B	1.66B	1.17B
Net Income	162.02M	218.00M	-153.00M	1.45B	543.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.16B	9.34B	9.96B	10.85B	9.26B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	296.36M	278.00M	1.61B	1.07B	473.00M
Total Debt	3.03B	2.02B	2.02B	2.07B	2.23B
Total Liabilities	4.95B	3.99B	3.87B	4.59B	4.37B
Stockholders Equity	4.73B	4.86B	5.66B	5.79B	4.50B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	213.08M	-143.00M	465.00M	891.00M	624.00M
Operating Cash Flow	923.03M	851.00M	1.36B	1.45B	1.15B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.19B	-936.00M	-482.00M	32.00M	-670.00M
Financing Cash Flow	295.57M	-1.23B	-541.00M	-572.00M	-372.00M

Mondi plc Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 824.60
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:MNDI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 824.6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 867.33, below the 50-day MA of 884.94, and below the 200-day MA of 967.27, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -18.77 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:MNDI.

Mondi plc Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SRC	74 Outperform	£1.28B	12.13	6.02%	―	32.27%	―
CRDA	66 Neutral	£3.66B	60.70	6.17%	3.45%	2.36%	-13.99%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
JMAT	60 Neutral	£3.20B	-46.91	-5.87%	3.54%	-4.60%	-126.46%
MNDI	55 Neutral	£3.63B	28.33	3.86%	6.76%	3.30%	-58.67%
VSVS	54 Neutral	£1.02B	18.78	6.26%	5.97%	-4.27%	-28.32%

Mondi plc Corporate Events

Mondi CEO and CFO Acquire Shares Under Employee Incentive Plan

Mondi plc has reported routine dealings in its ordinary shares under its UK-approved Share Incentive Plan, an all-employee scheme that allows staff to buy shares via salary deductions and receive free matching shares. The plan is designed to align employee and shareholder interests by encouraging broader equity participation across the workforce.

On 6 March 2026, Group CEO Andrew King and Group CFO Mike Powell each acquired 36 Mondi shares on the London Stock Exchange through the plan, with half of these awarded for nil consideration as matching shares at a reference price of £8.6068. The disclosed transactions underscore ongoing executive participation in the employee share scheme, but are limited in scale and do not signal any change in Mondi’s strategy or capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MNDI) stock is a Buy with a £10.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mondi plc stock, see the GB:MNDI Stock Forecast page.

Mondi awards performance-linked share options to senior executives

Mondi plc has granted nil‑cost share options to senior executives under its Bonus Share Plan and Long‑Term Incentive Plan, with awards determined using the average share price over three trading days following the latest results announcement. The grants, which form part of annual variable pay, include awards to Group CEO Andrew King, Group CFO Mike Powell and Chief People Officer Marita Erler, and will vest after the publication of Mondi’s 2028 final results, with LTIP vesting subject to total shareholder return, return on capital employed and cumulative EPS targets, and a further two‑year holding period for executive directors, underscoring a strong linkage between management remuneration and multi‑year performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MNDI) stock is a Buy with a £10.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mondi plc stock, see the GB:MNDI Stock Forecast page.

Mondi publishes 2025 integrated and sustainability reports ahead of April AGM

Mondi plc, a FTSE 100-listed packaging and paper group with operations in more than 30 countries, has released its 2025 integrated report and financial statements, confirming that the audited figures show no material changes from the preliminary results issued in February. The documents, together with the 2026 AGM notice and proxy form, have been filed with the UK National Storage Mechanism and are available on the company’s website for shareholder review.

The group has also published its 2025 Sustainable Development report, outlining performance and strategy on circular, climate-focused packaging solutions that underpin its long-term positioning. Mondi’s Annual General Meeting is scheduled for 24 April 2026 in Weybridge, with shareholders able to follow proceedings via a webinar, underscoring the company’s efforts to facilitate investor engagement across its UK and South African shareholder base.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MNDI) stock is a Buy with a £10.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mondi plc stock, see the GB:MNDI Stock Forecast page.

Mondi Sets Final 2025 Dividend and ZAR Payout Terms

Mondi has proposed a final dividend of 4.92 euro cents per ordinary share for the year ended 31 December 2025, payable on 7 May 2026 to shareholders on the UK and South African registers as of 27 March, subject to approval at the 24 April annual general meeting. The group will pay the dividend in euro, with UK shareholders receiving sterling unless they elect otherwise, while South African shareholders will be paid in rand at an exchange rate of EUR 1 to ZAR 18.97948, resulting in a gross payout of 93.37904 rand cents per share and a net 74.70323 rand cents per share for most local investors after withholding tax.

The dividend, which will be funded from income reserves, applies to 441,412,530 ordinary shares in issue, of which 170,522,238 are held on the South African branch register, and will be treated as UK-sourced income for South African tax reporting purposes. The announcement underscores Mondi’s continued cash returns to shareholders across its dual-listing base, reflecting its profitability and balance sheet strength while navigating currency and tax frameworks in its key markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MNDI) stock is a Hold with a £910.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mondi plc stock, see the GB:MNDI Stock Forecast page.

Mondi CEO and CFO acquire shares under all-employee incentive plan

Mondi plc has reported transactions in its ordinary shares under the company’s UK-approved Share Incentive Plan, an all-employee scheme that allows staff to purchase shares via salary deductions and receive free matching shares. The plan aligns employee and executive interests with shareholders by increasing equity participation across the organisation.

On 6 February 2026, Group CEO Andrew King and Group CFO Mike Powell each acquired 34 Mondi plc shares through the Share Incentive Plan, with half of those shares received for nil consideration as matching shares, at a reference market price of £8.84184. The director dealings, conducted on the London Stock Exchange, modestly increase senior management’s direct stake in the company and provide transparency to investors on executive shareholding changes.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MNDI) stock is a Buy with a £12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mondi plc stock, see the GB:MNDI Stock Forecast page.

Mondi CEO and CFO Acquire Shares Under All-Employee Incentive Plan

Mondi plc has reported director dealings in its ordinary shares under its UK-approved Share Incentive Plan, an all-employee scheme that allows staff to buy Mondi shares via monthly salary deductions and receive free matching shares. On 8 January 2026, Group CEO Andrew King and Group CFO Mike Powell each acquired 34 Mondi shares on the London Stock Exchange, with half of these awarded for nil consideration as matching shares, underscoring the alignment of senior management incentives with shareholder interests through increased equity participation.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MNDI) stock is a Hold with a £955.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mondi plc stock, see the GB:MNDI Stock Forecast page.

Mondi Discloses PDMR Share Option Exercise and Off-Market Share Sale

Mondi plc has disclosed that Chief People Officer and PDMR Marita Erler exercised a nil-cost share option under the company’s Long Term Incentive Plan on 18 December 2025, acquiring 14,105 ordinary shares of €0.22 each. Following the option exercise, Erler sold the same 14,105 shares off-market at a price of £8.870779 per share, a standard management share transaction that provides transparency to investors but does not signal any immediate change to Mondi’s underlying operations or strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MNDI) stock is a Hold with a £955.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mondi plc stock, see the GB:MNDI Stock Forecast page.