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Mondi PLC (GB:MNDI)
LSE:MNDI

Mondi plc (MNDI) AI Stock Analysis

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GB

Mondi plc

(LSE:MNDI)

Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
1,233.00p
▲(2.71%Upside)
Mondi plc receives an overall score of 63, reflecting a mixed financial performance with pressures on profitability and cash flow. While the technical outlook suggests potential volatility, recent corporate events positively impact the score by highlighting strategic growth initiatives and a focus on shareholder value. The valuation appears high, but the attractive dividend yield provides some balance.
Positive Factors
Acquisition
Mondi's acquisition of Schumacher is expected to strengthen Mondi's corrugated footprint in Europe and be highly value accretive over time.
Earnings
Mondi expects sequentially higher Q4 EBITDA from a combination of seasonally stronger demand and considerably less costly maintenance activity.
Growth Prospects
Mondi's €1.2bn growth capex program is nearing completion, expected to add €200m to annual EBITDA by 2026, evenly spread between 2025 and 2026.
Negative Factors
Debt Levels
Near term weaker earnings and higher indebtedness cause analysts to lower the price target to 1,815p from 1,933p.
Financial Performance
Mondi hit an unexpected speed bump in Q3, delivering underlying EBITDA significantly lower than expectations due to high maintenance activity and forestry fair value losses.
Stock Price
Mondi's stock price dropped 7.5% on weak sequential performance in Q3 and directionally cautious comments on the current trading environment.

Mondi plc (MNDI) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Mondi plc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMondi plc engages in the manufacture and sale of packaging and paper products in Africa, Western Europe, Emerging Europe, Russia, North America, South America, Asia, and Australia. It operates in Corrugated Packaging, Flexible Packaging, Engineered Materials, and Uncoated Fine Paper segments. The company offers flexible packaging, bags, and pouches; personal care components; release liners; functional films; corrugated solutions; industrial bags; barrier coatings; specialty Kraft and sack Kraft papers; containerboards; and office and professional printing papers. It serves customers in the agriculture, automotive, building and construction, chemicals and dangerous goods, food and beverages, graphic and photographic, home and personal care, medical and pharmaceutical, office and professional printing, paper and packaging converting, pet care, retail and e-commerce, and shipping and transport industries. Mondi plc was founded in 1967 and is based in Weybridge, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyMondi plc generates revenue through the sale of its diverse range of packaging and paper products. Its primary revenue streams include corrugated packaging, flexible packaging, engineered materials, and uncoated fine paper. The company leverages its integrated value chain, from managing forests and producing pulp and paper to developing and manufacturing innovative packaging solutions. Mondi's financial performance is bolstered by strategic partnerships with major global brands and its commitment to sustainability, which enhances its market appeal and customer loyalty. Additionally, Mondi invests in continuous innovation to improve product functionality and environmental impact, further driving its competitive edge and profitability.

Mondi plc Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Mondi plc presents a mixed financial picture. The income statement has a strong gross profit margin but declining net profit and EBIT margins. The balance sheet is stable yet shows declining stockholders' equity and a fluctuating return on equity. Cash flow concerns arise from negative free cash flow and reduced operating cash flow, suggesting potential liquidity pressures.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Mondi plc's income statement shows mixed performance. The gross profit margin has been relatively strong, but there is a concerning trend of declining net profit margins and EBIT margins over recent years. Revenue growth has been inconsistent with recent declines, which could indicate challenges in maintaining market position or pricing power.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet of Mondi plc is relatively stable with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio. However, the decline in stockholders' equity over the last year and a reduction in the equity ratio raise concerns about long-term financial health. The return on equity has also seen significant fluctuations, indicating potential volatility in shareholder returns.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Mondi plc's cash flow statement highlights some challenges. Free cash flow has turned negative in the most recent period, and there has been a significant decrease in operating cash flow compared to previous years. These trends suggest potential liquidity pressures and a need for careful cash management to support future operations and investments.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
7.19B7.42B7.33B8.90B6.97B6.66B
Gross Profit
2.85B3.08B2.74B3.43B2.76B2.98B
EBIT
497.00M456.00M763.00M1.26B786.00M891.00M
EBITDA
890.00M918.00M1.21B2.11B1.16B1.30B
Net Income Common Stockholders
392.00M218.00M-153.00M1.45B543.00M582.00M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.61B278.00M1.61B1.07B473.00M383.00M
Total Assets
9.96B9.34B9.96B10.85B9.26B8.37B
Total Debt
2.02B2.02B2.02B2.07B2.23B2.18B
Net Debt
427.00M1.74B427.00M1.00B1.75B1.80B
Total Liabilities
3.87B3.99B3.87B4.59B4.37B3.98B
Stockholders Equity
5.66B4.86B5.66B5.79B4.50B4.00B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
72.00M-143.00M465.00M891.00M624.00M645.00M
Operating Cash Flow
1.04B851.00M1.36B1.45B1.15B1.32B
Investing Cash Flow
-527.00M-936.00M-482.00M32.00M-670.00M-675.00M
Financing Cash Flow
-1.25B-1.23B-541.00M-572.00M-372.00M-268.00M

Mondi plc Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price1200.50
Price Trends
50DMA
1146.38
Positive
100DMA
1167.42
Positive
200DMA
1219.18
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
22.06
Negative
RSI
53.64
Neutral
STOCH
55.50
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:MNDI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1200.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1170.20, above the 50-day MA of 1146.38, and below the 200-day MA of 1219.18, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 22.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GB:MNDI.

Mondi plc Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (50)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
70
Outperform
£861.47M10.517.20%6.66%-5.68%-23.91%
GBVCT
70
Outperform
£680.15M22.906.65%7.62%4.75%-3.29%
68
Neutral
£2.89B8.1615.96%4.45%-15.51%200.70%
66
Neutral
£4.26B26.886.84%3.60%-3.92%-7.30%
63
Neutral
£5.21B28.464.17%5.04%-1.55%-65.03%
54
Neutral
£587.69M
50
Neutral
$2.00B-1.13-21.16%3.71%2.15%-30.95%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:MNDI
Mondi plc
1,200.50
-322.74
-21.19%
GB:CRDA
Croda International
3,076.00
-1,340.50
-30.35%
GB:JMAT
Johnson Matthey
1,704.00
-5.31
-0.31%
GB:VSVS
Vesuvius
359.00
-96.88
-21.25%
GB:VCT
Victrex
798.00
-422.89
-34.64%
GB:BA29
Morgan Advanced Materials
66.00
1.45
2.25%

Mondi plc Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Mondi plc Announces Change in Shareholder Voting Rights
Neutral
May 13, 2025

Mondi plc has announced a change in its shareholder structure, with Coronation Fund Managers adjusting its voting rights in the company. The adjustment sees Coronation Fund Managers holding 6.993902% of the voting rights, down from a previous 7.021019%. This change in shareholding could impact Mondi’s strategic decisions and influence within the market, as it reflects a slight shift in investor confidence or strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MNDI) stock is a Hold with a £17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mondi plc stock, see the GB:MNDI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Mondi plc Directors Participate in Share Incentive Plan
Positive
May 9, 2025

Mondi plc announced transactions related to its Share Incentive Plan (SIP), allowing UK employees to purchase ordinary shares through salary deductions and receive free matching shares. This initiative, involving directors Andrew King and Mike Powell, reflects Mondi’s commitment to employee investment and aligns with its strategy to enhance stakeholder engagement and company performance.

Shareholder Meetings
Mondi plc AGM Results: All Resolutions Passed Amid Shareholder Engagement
Neutral
May 8, 2025

Mondi plc held its Annual General Meeting where all resolutions were passed, with approximately 81% of shares voted. Notably, Resolution 19 regarding the disapplication of pre-emption rights saw over 20% opposition, prompting the Board to engage with shareholders for further dialogue. The resolutions align with UK market practices, and the company plans to update stakeholders within six months. This AGM outcome reflects Mondi’s adherence to corporate governance and its responsiveness to shareholder concerns, potentially impacting its operational flexibility and shareholder relations.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Mondi plc Sees Strong Q1 2025 Performance Amid Expansion and Strategic Acquisitions
Positive
May 8, 2025

Mondi plc reported a strong first quarter in 2025, with higher sales volumes and effective cost control offsetting lower average selling prices compared to the previous quarter. The company’s underlying EBITDA rose to €290 million, aided by a forestry fair value gain. Key developments include the successful start-up of new production facilities in the Czech Republic and Italy, and the completion of the acquisition of Schumacher Packaging’s Western Europe assets, which is expected to enhance Mondi’s product offerings and supply chain efficiency. Despite global trade tensions, Mondi remains focused on expanding its capacity and integrating new assets to maintain its competitive edge in the sustainable packaging market.

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Mondi Announces 2024 Final Dividend Exchange Rates
Positive
Apr 24, 2025

Mondi plc has announced the exchange rates for its 2024 final dividend payments, set to be distributed on 16 May 2025. UK shareholders will receive the dividend in sterling at a rate of EUR 1 to GBP 0.85558, while South African shareholders will receive it in rand at a rate of EUR 1 to ZAR 19.31475. This announcement confirms the company’s commitment to providing consistent returns to its shareholders, reflecting its strong financial performance and strategic focus on sustainability.

Other
Mondi plc Directors Participate in Share Incentive Plan
Neutral
Apr 8, 2025

Mondi plc announced transactions related to its Share Incentive Plan (SIP) involving directors of the company. The SIP allows UK employees to purchase ordinary shares through salary deductions and receive free matching shares. Recent transactions involved the acquisition of shares by Group CEO Andrew King and Group CFO Mike Powell, reflecting the company’s commitment to employee shareholding and aligning management interests with those of shareholders.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Mondi Expands Western European Presence with Key Acquisition
Positive
Apr 1, 2025

Mondi plc has completed the acquisition of the Western Europe Packaging Assets of Schumacher Packaging, significantly expanding its footprint in Western Europe. This acquisition enhances Mondi’s corrugated packaging business by adding over 1 billion square meters of capacity and integrating state-of-the-art facilities in Germany. The move is expected to bolster Mondi’s eCommerce and FMCG offerings, presenting opportunities to introduce sustainable packaging solutions to a broader customer base.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Mondi plc Announces Change in Major Shareholder Voting Rights
Neutral
Mar 25, 2025

Mondi plc has announced a change in its major shareholders, with Coronation Fund Managers increasing their voting rights to 7.021019% as of March 20, 2025. This adjustment in shareholder composition could influence Mondi’s strategic decisions and impact its market positioning, reflecting potential shifts in stakeholder influence.

Business Operations and Strategy
Mondi plc Directors Participate in Share Incentive Plan
Positive
Mar 10, 2025

Mondi plc announced transactions related to its Share Incentive Plan (SIP) on March 7, 2025, involving directors Andrew King and Mike Powell. The SIP allows UK employees to purchase ordinary shares through salary deductions and receive free matching shares. The transactions, conducted on the London Stock Exchange, involved acquiring shares at a market price of £12.8729, with half of the shares acquired for nil consideration. This initiative reflects Mondi’s commitment to employee engagement and aligns with its strategic goals of enhancing stakeholder value.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Mondi plc Releases 2024 Integrated and Sustainable Development Reports
Neutral
Mar 4, 2025

Mondi plc has published its 2024 Integrated Report, Sustainable Development Report, and Notice of Annual General Meeting, confirming no material changes from its preliminary financial results. The reports highlight Mondi’s commitment to sustainability and provide insights into its performance and strategic direction. The upcoming Annual General Meeting is scheduled for May 8, 2025, with provisions for shareholder participation via webinar, reflecting Mondi’s focus on transparency and stakeholder engagement.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.