Mondi PLC (GB:MNDI)
LSE:MNDI
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Mondi plc
(LSE:MNDI)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
841.00 p
▼(-3.75% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/20/26
The score is held back primarily by pressured margins, earnings volatility, and uneven free-cash-flow conversion alongside rising leverage. Offsetting factors include improving near-term technical momentum, a high dividend yield, and management’s cash-focused plan with capex discipline, cost actions, and synergy progress.
Positive Factors
Vertical integration across pulp, paper and converting
Mondi’s integrated model (pulp → paper → converted packaging) supports cost control, raw‑material access and internal supply reliability. Over 2–6 months this integration helps stabilize input cost pass‑through, enables higher‑margin converted sales and strengthens customer lock‑in versus pure‑play paper producers.
Negative Factors
Rising net debt and elevated leverage
A jump to ~2.6x net leverage reduces financial flexibility and raises interest‑cost sensitivity if markets deteriorate. While liquidity and no near‑term maturities ease short‑term pressure, higher leverage constrains strategic options (M&A, capex upsizing or faster dividend reinstatement) until deleveraging is sustained.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Vertical integration across pulp, paper and converting
Mondi’s integrated model (pulp → paper → converted packaging) supports cost control, raw‑material access and internal supply reliability. Over 2–6 months this integration helps stabilize input cost pass‑through, enables higher‑margin converted sales and strengthens customer lock‑in versus pure‑play paper producers.
Read all positive factors
Mondi plc (MNDI) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£3.85B
Dividend Yield6.76%
Average Volume (3M)2.08M
Price to Earnings (P/E)28.3
Beta (1Y)1.00
Revenue Growth3.30%
EPS Growth-58.67%
CountryUK
Employees22,473
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryPaper, Lumber & Forest Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.12
Shares Outstanding441,412,540
10 Day Avg. Volume3,514,387
30 Day Avg. Volume2,084,797
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.16
Price to Book (P/B)0.97
Price to Sales (P/S)0.61
P/FCF Ratio21.54
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£948.10Price Target Upside8.50% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.51
Revenue Forecast (FY)£7.80B
Mondi plc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Mondi plc engages in the manufacture and sale of packaging and paper products in Africa, Western Europe, Emerging Europe, Russia, North America, South America, Asia, and Australia. It operates in Corrugated Packaging, Flexible Packaging, Engineere...
How the Company Makes Money
Mondi makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling packaging and paper products to business customers. Its revenue model is largely based on (1) selling paper-based packaging solutions (such as corrugated packaging and flexible packaging pro...
Mondi plc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call communicates a mixed but controlled picture: management emphasised a resilient operating performance (EUR 1.0bn underlying EBITDA), strong cash generation (EUR 1.072bn), disciplined CapEx and successful integration of Schumacher with upgraded synergies, supported by productivity gains and liquidity headroom. Offsetting these positives are persistent cyclical market weakness, significant margin pressure (notably in uncoated fine paper, pulp and recycled containerboard), a material rise in net debt to EUR 2.6 billion (2.6x leverage), and short‑term losses/optimization needs at newly commissioned assets (e.g., Duino). Management’s actions on cost, CapEx discipline and plant/footprint optimization signal a proactive response, but industry overcapacity and pricing dynamics remain meaningful near‑term risks.Positive Updates
Resilient Underlying EBITDA
Underlying EBITDA of approximately EUR 1.0 billion for FY2025, only marginally down from EUR 1,049 million in the prior year (≈4.7% decline), described by management as a resilient outcome in a prolonged cyclical downturn.
Negative Updates
Margin Pressure and Price Weakness
Significant margin squeeze driven by substantially lower selling prices for uncoated fine paper and pulp during the year; containerboard and kraft prices moved up in H1 then weakened in H2, with renewed price pressure affecting margins across segments.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Resilient Underlying EBITDA
Underlying EBITDA of approximately EUR 1.0 billion for FY2025, only marginally down from EUR 1,049 million in the prior year (≈4.7% decline), described by management as a resilient outcome in a prolonged cyclical downturn.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The management guided to a cautious, cash-focused 2026 while flagging key 2025 metrics: underlying EBITDA ~EUR 1.0bn (vs EUR 1,049m prior year), cash generated from operations EUR 1.072bn, PP&E spend EUR 673m (below prior EUR 750–850m guide), dividends paid EUR 352m and net cash after interest/tax/other of EUR 767m; year‑end net debt rose from EUR 1.7bn to EUR 2.6bn (2.6x leverage) with available liquidity ~EUR 1.3bn, no covenants and no debt maturities until 2028. For 2026 they expect cash capex ~EUR 550m (base ~EUR 500m, ~EUR 50m still to flow for growth projects), maintenance/downtime guidance ~EUR 100m (EUR 20m H1 / EUR 80m H2), input costs broadly flat in early 2026 versus 2025, cost actions (≈1,000 headcount reductions in past 12 months plus ~200 more from three plant closures and ~13% fewer group services roles) to offset labor inflation, and Schumacher acquisition synergies of EUR 32m over three years (up from EUR 22m); the Board recommends an ordinary dividend of EUR 0.2825/share, returning to a 2–3x dividend cover policy.Mondi plc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
61
Positive
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 7.52B | 7.42B | 7.33B | 8.90B | 6.97B |
| Gross Profit | 1.24B | 3.08B | 2.74B | 3.43B | 2.76B |
| EBITDA | 982.93M | 918.00M | 1.21B | 1.66B | 1.17B |
| Net Income | 162.02M | 218.00M | -153.00M | 1.45B | 543.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 10.16B | 9.34B | 9.96B | 10.85B | 9.26B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 296.36M | 278.00M | 1.61B | 1.07B | 473.00M |
| Total Debt | 3.03B | 2.02B | 2.02B | 2.07B | 2.23B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.95B | 3.99B | 3.87B | 4.59B | 4.37B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.73B | 4.86B | 5.66B | 5.79B | 4.50B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 213.08M | -143.00M | 465.00M | 891.00M | 624.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 923.03M | 851.00M | 1.36B | 1.45B | 1.15B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.19B | -936.00M | -482.00M | 32.00M | -670.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 295.57M | -1.23B | -541.00M | -572.00M | -372.00M |
Mondi plc Technical Analysis
Negative
873.80
Price Trends
865.11
Negative
868.51
Negative
938.78
Negative
Market Momentum
-4.66
Negative
48.55
Neutral
68.22
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:MNDI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 873.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 831.22, above the 50-day MA of 865.11, and below the 200-day MA of 938.78, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -4.66 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.22 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:MNDI.
Mondi plc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | £4.19B | 60.70 | 6.17% | 3.45% | 2.36% | -13.99% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
60 Neutral | £3.36B | -46.91 | -5.87% | 3.54% | -4.60% | -126.46% | |
60 Neutral | £1.40B | 17.54 | 10.11% | ― | 32.27% | ― | |
55 Neutral | £3.85B | 28.33 | 1.69% | 6.76% | 3.30% | -58.67% | |
54 Neutral | £1.06B | 18.78 | 4.75% | 5.97% | -4.27% | -28.32% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
GB:MNDI
Mondi plc
873.80
-121.11
-12.17%
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Mondi plc Corporate Events
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Mondi discloses executive share option exercise and sale to cover tax
Neutral
Mar 24, 2026
Mondi plc, a global packaging and paper group with significant operations in flexible packaging, provides paper-based and flexible packaging solutions to industrial and consumer sectors worldwide. The group is dual-listed in London and Johannesbur...
Other
Mondi CEO and CFO Acquire Shares Under Employee Incentive Plan
Neutral
Mar 9, 2026
Mondi plc has reported routine dealings in its ordinary shares under its UK-approved Share Incentive Plan, an all-employee scheme that allows staff to buy shares via salary deductions and receive free matching shares. The plan is designed to align...
Executive/Board Changes
Mondi awards performance-linked share options to senior executives
Neutral
Mar 6, 2026
Mondi plc has granted nil‑cost share options to senior executives under its Bonus Share Plan and Long‑Term Incentive Plan, with awards determined using the average share price over three trading days following the latest results announ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Mondi publishes 2025 integrated and sustainability reports ahead of April AGM
Neutral
Mar 5, 2026
Mondi plc, a FTSE 100-listed packaging and paper group with operations in more than 30 countries, has released its 2025 integrated report and financial statements, confirming that the audited figures show no material changes from the preliminary r...
DividendsShareholder Meetings
Mondi Sets Final 2025 Dividend and ZAR Payout Terms
Positive
Feb 19, 2026
Mondi has proposed a final dividend of 4.92 euro cents per ordinary share for the year ended 31 December 2025, payable on 7 May 2026 to shareholders on the UK and South African registers as of 27 March, subject to approval at the 24 April annual g...
Other
Mondi CEO and CFO acquire shares under all-employee incentive plan
Neutral
Feb 9, 2026
Mondi plc has reported transactions in its ordinary shares under the company’s UK-approved Share Incentive Plan, an all-employee scheme that allows staff to purchase shares via salary deductions and receive free matching shares. The plan ali...
Other
Mondi CEO and CFO Acquire Shares Under All-Employee Incentive Plan
Positive
Jan 9, 2026
Mondi plc has reported director dealings in its ordinary shares under its UK-approved Share Incentive Plan, an all-employee scheme that allows staff to buy Mondi shares via monthly salary deductions and receive free matching shares. On 8 January 2...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.