Kitwave Group PLC (KITW) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £247.86M
• Dividend Yield: 5.2%
• Average Volume (3M): 203.07K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.88
• Revenue Growth: 19.01%
• EPS Growth: -15.21%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 2,100
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Food Distribution
• EPS (TTM): 0.15
• Shares Outstanding: 83,736,540
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 168,001
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 203,068
• PEG Ratio: -0.64
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.35
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.22
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.32
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £420.00
• Price Target Upside: 92.66% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: 324.00p ▲(48.62% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong revenue growth and reliable free cash flow) alongside bullish price trends. The main offsets are moderate leverage and recent margin compression, plus overbought technical readings that add near-term risk; valuation is reasonable with a supportive dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Multi-year revenue growth and improving profitability

Sustained multi-year revenue growth and a meaningful profitability improvement since 2020 indicate structural demand and execution of the distribution model. This trend underpins longer-term earnings resilience, supports reinvestment in distribution capacity, and reduces execution risk vs early losses.

Consistent and growing free cash flow generation

Reliable, improving free cash flow—material relative to net income—creates durable financial flexibility: funds capex, dividend support, and gradual debt reduction. Strong FCF conversion also signals earnings quality and makes the business more resilient to cyclical pressures over the medium term.

Broad multi-temperature distribution network and customer reach

Operating across ambient, chilled and frozen channels and serving convenience, foodservice and specialist wholesale provides structural diversification. Multi-temperature logistics and frequent delivery schedules build route density and customer stickiness, underpinning durable revenue streams.

Negative Factors

Recent net margin compression

Thin and declining net margins materially increase sensitivity to input cost or pricing pressures typical in food distribution. A structural downward margin trend reduces internal buffers for investment, makes returns more cyclical, and heightens the need for scale or cost improvements to sustain profitability.

Moderate leverage close to equity levels

Debt roughly in line with equity limits balance-sheet optionality: it constrains the company's ability to fund rapid capex, pursue acquisitions, or absorb shocks without refinancing. If volumes or margins weaken, deleveraging will require sustained cash generation or asset sales, slowing strategic moves.

Operating cash flow small relative to debt

Low operating cash flow coverage versus debt means debt reduction depends heavily on consistent high free cash flow. This creates refinancing or liquidity risk if cash generation dips, and it limits the pace at which leverage can be meaningfully reduced while still funding normal distribution capex and working capital needs.

Kitwave Group PLC Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Kitwave Group PLC (KITW) is a leading UK-based wholesaler, primarily engaged in the distribution of a wide range of products across various sectors including food and drink, confectionery, tobacco, and grocery items. The company operates through multiple divisions, providing services to convenience stores, retailers, and foodservice businesses. Kitwave's core offerings include a diverse portfolio of branded and private label products, catering to the evolving demands of its customers in the retail and hospitality sectors.

How the Company Makes Money

Kitwave Group PLC generates revenue primarily through the wholesale distribution of its product range to retailers and foodservice operators. The company employs a multi-channel approach, leveraging both direct sales and an extensive network of independent distributors to reach its customer base. Key revenue streams include sales of food and beverage products, non-food items, and seasonal goods. Additionally, the company benefits from strategic partnerships with major manufacturers and brands, allowing it to enhance its product offerings and maintain competitive pricing. The scale of its operations and the breadth of its distribution network also contribute to economies of scale, improving profit margins.

Kitwave Group PLC Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Solid fundamentals for a low-margin distributor: strong multi-year revenue growth, improved profitability versus 2020–2021, and consistently positive/free cash flow (up to ~£33.4m in 2025). Offsetting this are moderate leverage (~0.89–0.97 debt-to-equity) and recent net margin compression (~2.1% in 2025 vs. ~2.5% in 2024 and ~3.1% in 2023), which increases sensitivity to pricing/cost pressure.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded strongly over the past several years, with solid growth in the latest annual period (2025: ~8% vs. 2024). Profitability has improved meaningfully versus 2020–2021 (when results were near break-even), and operating profitability remains positive with stable mid-single-digit EBITDA margins. The key weakness is margin compression recently: net margin fell to ~2.1% in 2025 from ~2.5% in 2024 and ~3.1% in 2023, indicating a tougher pricing/cost environment typical of food distribution.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows moderate leverage, with debt roughly in line with equity in 2024–2025 (debt-to-equity ~0.89–0.97), which is manageable but leaves less flexibility if trading weakens. Equity has strengthened substantially versus 2020 (when equity was slightly negative), and returns on equity are healthy in 2024–2025 (~13% and ~12.6%). A watch item is the step-up in absolute debt since 2023 alongside a much larger asset base, suggesting growth has come with added financing needs.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength: free cash flow was positive across all reported years and improved in 2025 (~£33.4m), with double-digit growth. Free cash flow also broadly tracks earnings well (free cash flow is ~77%–90% of net income in 2022–2025), supporting earnings quality. The main weakness is that operating cash flow is relatively small versus debt (coverage ~0.22–0.28 in 2024–2025), implying debt paydown capacity may take time without sustained cash build.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	802.68M	663.65M	602.22M	503.09M	380.69M
Gross Profit	183.21M	147.82M	132.13M	102.63M	68.58M
EBITDA	50.50M	41.40M	39.33M	28.37M	19.77M
Net Income	16.63M	16.72M	18.96M	14.34M	1.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	360.24M	359.29M	209.59M	179.66M	148.82M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	952.00K	4.14M	673.00K	5.51M	4.97M
Total Debt	117.91M	121.39M	59.07M	49.10M	39.26M
Total Liabilities	228.25M	234.74M	125.14M	107.77M	87.23M
Stockholders Equity	131.98M	124.55M	84.44M	71.89M	61.58M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	33.35M	24.13M	26.38M	23.92M	4.96M
Operating Cash Flow	37.33M	31.40M	30.30M	26.52M	7.92M
Investing Cash Flow	-9.86M	-77.09M	-23.04M	-19.21M	-2.71M
Financing Cash Flow	-30.66M	49.15M	-12.10M	-6.77M	-577.00K

Kitwave Group PLC Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 218.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:KITW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 218 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 251.45, below the 50-day MA of 228.14, and below the 200-day MA of 247.83, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 22.56 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 78.39 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.15 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:KITW.

Kitwave Group PLC Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
KITW	72 Outperform	£247.86M	14.70	15.19%	5.20%	19.01%	-15.21%
MCB	70 Outperform	£277.90M	8.24	42.11%	2.12%	-0.89%	1.30%
BNZL	69 Neutral	£6.60B	14.02	17.98%	3.56%	1.92%	0.50%
NICL	67 Neutral	£371.10M	21.19	18.67%	3.39%	3.04%	-6.67%
BME	66 Neutral	£1.77B	7.11	34.27%	17.38%	1.74%	-23.72%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
PZC	54 Neutral	£306.23M	-54.57	-2.51%	4.82%	-2.67%	89.86%

Kitwave Group PLC Corporate Events

Kitwave Delivers Record Revenues and Profit as Foodservice Integration Advances

Kitwave reported record unaudited revenue of £802.7 million for the year to 31 October 2025, up 20.9% year-on-year, with gross margin improving to 22.8% and adjusted operating profit rising 11.7% to £38.0 million, driven largely by growth and mix shift in its higher-margin Foodservice division. Strong cash generation, improved cash conversion to 104% and a reduction in leverage to 2.3x including leases underline a strengthened balance sheet, even as reported earnings per share dipped due to a larger share base and the Group absorbed short‑term restructuring and integration costs tied to consolidating foodservice depots and ramping up a new South West distribution centre; management says these investments, alongside the completed integration of recent foodservice acquisitions into Creed Foodservice and solid performance in the Retail & Wholesale division, position the company to extract operational synergies and support future growth amid a challenging macro environment, while a proposed acquisition by OEP Capital Advisors L.P. offers an attractive exit for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:KITW) stock is a Buy with a £420.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kitwave Group PLC stock, see the GB:KITW Stock Forecast page.

Kitwave Agrees £251m Takeover by OEP-Backed BidCo at 38.8% Premium

Kitwave Group has agreed to a recommended all-cash takeover by Kite UK Bidco, a vehicle indirectly owned by funds managed or advised by private equity firm OEP Capital Advisers, valuing the wholesaler at about £251 million. Shareholders are being offered 295p per share, representing premiums of roughly 33.5% to the latest closing price and 38.8% to the three‑month average, with Kitwave’s board unanimously backing the deal and giving irrevocable undertakings over a portion of their holdings, while BidCo has so far secured support and indications covering about 21.6% of the register. OEP plans to use its sector experience and buy‑and‑build expertise to accelerate Kitwave’s growth, strengthen its position in the fragmented wholesale distribution market, boost its foodservice presence and digital capabilities, and leverage the flexibility of private ownership, with the transaction to be implemented via a court‑sanctioned scheme of arrangement expected to complete in the first quarter of 2026, subject to shareholder and court approvals.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:KITW) stock is a Buy with a £420.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kitwave Group PLC stock, see the GB:KITW Stock Forecast page.

Kitwave Group PLC Reports Steady Trading and Announces CFO Transition

Kitwave Group PLC has announced a trading update for the 12-month period ending October 2025, reporting that trading has met expectations despite a challenging consumer spending environment. The company has invested in a new South West depot and successfully integrated Creed into its operations, resulting in the closure of two depots. Additionally, Kitwave has changed its financial year-end to December, with plans to publish a detailed trading update in January 2026. The company also announced a board change, with CFO David Brind retiring and Mark Earl set to succeed him. The transition is expected to be smooth, with Earl’s extensive experience within the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:KITW) stock is a Hold with a £223.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kitwave Group PLC stock, see the GB:KITW Stock Forecast page.