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ITM Power PLC (GB:ITM)
LSE:ITM

ITM Power (ITM) AI Stock Analysis

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GB:ITM

ITM Power

(LSE:ITM)

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Neutral 44 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
60.00p
▼(-5.21% Downside)
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (persistent losses and negative operating/free cash flow) and a bearish technical trend with the price below major moving averages. These are partially offset by earnings-call evidence of operational progress (record H1 revenue, improving backlog quality, reiterated growth guidance) and a low-leverage balance sheet, but near-term profitability and cash timing risks remain significant.
Positive Factors
Contracted order backlog growth & quality
A £152m fully contracted backlog, with profitable contracts rising to 71%, provides multi-period revenue visibility and a higher-margin mix. This strengthens medium-term revenue predictability and supports scaling operations and margin recovery as more profitable work converts to revenue.
Manufacturing automation and throughput gains
Validated high-capacity automation and assembly improvements materially increase throughput and lower unit manufacturing cost. Over 2 GW annual stack capacity and halved test times should sustainably improve gross margins, delivery speed, and ability to meet large customer orders.
Low leverage and sizable cash runway
Very low leverage combined with a near‑term cash runway in the high‑£100m range reduces refinancing risk and enables continued capex, automation and R&D investments. This balance sheet strength provides strategic flexibility while scaling production and pursuing technology roadmaps.
Negative Factors
Persistent negative profitability
Sustained negative gross, EBITDA and net margins indicate the business has not yet reached operating leverage. Ongoing losses erode equity and require continued cash support, meaning long-term profitability depends on successful cost reductions, pricing power and scaling volume.
Legacy unprofitable contracts
Nearly a third of contracted work is legacy, loss-making business that will be recognized over ~18 months. This structural drag will suppress reported margins and delay the realization of operating leverage, complicating the earnings recovery despite improving new-contract quality.
Cash flow timing and FID dependence
Milestone-driven receipts and slower customer final investment decisions create 'bumpy' cash flows and execution uncertainty. This timing risk can defer revenue recognition, necessitate higher liquidity buffers, and constrain investments despite a healthy headline cash balance.

ITM Power (ITM) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

ITM Power Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionITM Power Plc designs, manufactures, and sells hydrogen energy systems for energy storage, transportation, and industrial sectors in the United Kingdom, Germany, rest of Europe, and the United States. It offers HGas for power-to-gas, clean fuel, and industrial hydrogen applications. The company is also involved in the development and manufacture of prototype products; and sale of electrolysis equipment and hydrogen storage solutions. ITM Power Plc was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Sheffield, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyITM Power generates revenue primarily through the sale of its electrolyzers and hydrogen production systems to various industries, including utilities, transportation, and industrial sectors. The company has established significant partnerships with key players in the energy market, which help to drive sales and expand its customer base. Additionally, ITM Power engages in joint ventures and collaborations that facilitate the deployment of its technology on a larger scale, contributing to its earnings. The company may also benefit from government grants and incentives aimed at promoting renewable energy solutions, further enhancing its revenue streams.

ITM Power Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed clear operational and commercial progress: record H1 revenue, improved gross loss, strengthening backlog quality, successful product launches (ALPHA 50) and major project deliveries (Lingen), plus significant manufacturing automation and a promising CHRONOS technology roadmap. At the same time, the company remains loss-making, with material legacy unprofitable contracts, timing uncertainty around customer FIDs and H2 cash outflows. Management emphasized disciplined cash and conservative guidance. Overall the positives — strong demand, execution on large projects, manufacturing scale-up, and improving backlog quality — outweigh the negatives, but profitability and certain timing risks remain.
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Half-Year Revenue
Revenue of GBP 18.0m for H1 FY26 — the highest 6-month revenue in ITM's history, driven by equipment sales of GBP 15.5m and GBP 2.5m from engineering/spares/services.
Improved Gross Loss and EBITDA Trend
Gross loss reduced to GBP 6.5m from GBP 10.2m in prior-year H1 (improvement of GBP 3.7m, ~36%), and management expects an EBITDA loss improvement of ~GBP 4m year-on-year with FY26 EBITDA loss guidance of GBP 27m–29m.
Strong Cash Position and Disciplined Cash Management
Cash of GBP 197.8m at period end, a reduction of GBP 9.2m over 12 months (≈4.4% decline). Guidance for year-end cash GBP 170m–175m, with management emphasizing contractual milestone alignment of receipts and payments.
Contracted Order Backlog Growth and Quality
Contracted order backlog of GBP 152m (fully contracted, no starting conditions) with improvement in quality: profitable contract share rose to 71% from 60% in April 2025 (+11 percentage points).
Product Launches and Market Traction (ALPHA 50 & NEPTUNE V)
ALPHA 50 launched Oct 2025 (50 MW full-scope plant priced at EUR 50m) and has strong early interest; NEPTUNE V remains high demand product, with RWE reserving 150 MW capacity following successful Lingen deliveries.
Major Project Execution — Lingen and Octopus
Delivered Lingen 1 (100 MW) on time — produced/shipped 50 TRIDENT skids and 150 stacks; Lingen 2 construction progressing (40% stacks installed). Won Octopus 12.5 MW North Fleet contract and selected for 2 German grid balancing projects totaling 710 MW (post-period).
Manufacturing Automations and Throughput Improvements
NEPTUNE V assembly line now in full operation; new autostacker robot validated and installed for stack assembly with capacity >2 GW of stacks per year; electrolysis end-of-line testing time halved.
Technology Roadmap — CHRONOS Targets Significant Cost and Performance Gains
Next-gen CHRONOS stack targeting ~40% cost reduction vs TRIDENT, 10% efficiency improvement, >50% reduction in part count/footprint/weight, single stack rated 2 MW base (up to 2.5 MW), and up to 90% component recyclability — development progressing and validated to plan (no firm launch date).
Revenue Recognition Evolution Increasing Visibility
Shift to percentage-of-completion for nonstandard NEPTUNE, POSEIDON and ALPHA projects implemented (orderbook currently ~85% completed-contracts / 15% POC) — enabling more progressive revenue recognition and greater predictability as product mix evolves.
Operational and Commercial Momentum
Multiple equipment and engineering contract awards (including Westnetz, Spanish cement customer), repeat blue-chip customers (RWE, Uniper), and increasing share of industrial customers in sales pipeline.
Negative Updates
Ongoing Loss-Making Position
Company remains loss-making with gross loss of GBP 6.5m in H1 and FY26 EBITDA loss guidance of GBP 27m–29m; no guidance provided for achieving sustained EBITDA positivity beyond the current fiscal year.
Legacy Unprofitable Contracts Remain Material
29% of the backlog relates to legacy projects that are fully provided for and do not contribute to margin; management expects these to be recognized over the next ~18 months, continuing to weigh on near-term profitability.
Cash Outflow Timing and H2 Pressure
Although ending cash remains strong, management expects higher cash outflows in H2 (guidance to year-end cash GBP 170m–175m); cash flows are described as 'bumpy' due to milestone timing, with no assumed new contract signings in cash guidance.
Dependence on Customer FIDs and Timing Uncertainty
Several projects require customer final investment decisions (e.g., MorGen Energy POSEIDON contract awaiting FID). Management noted some FIDs are slower than desired, creating timing uncertainty for order conversion and revenue recognition.
Book-to-Bill Decline Versus Prior Year-End
Book-to-bill ratio based on current orderbook and FY guidance is ~4x, down from ~5.5x at prior year-end, indicating a relative reduction in near-term cover versus last year-end levels.
Working Capital Swings and Receivables Increase
Trade and other receivables rose (~35%) and trade payables rose (~19%) since April; management attributes this to normal EPC milestone timing but it increases near-term working capital volatility.
Product/Program Timing and Uncertainties
CHRONOS launch date deliberately unguided to avoid disrupting TRIDENT demand; while prudent, this leaves timing uncertainty on realizing the targeted 40% cost reductions and other CHRONOS benefits.
Residual Operational Risks Around Automation
Autostacker is a major automation leap and while redundancy via prior manual process is retained, reliance on a single high-capacity automated asset introduces operational risk until fully proven in high-volume production.
Company Guidance
For the year ending 30 April 2026 management reiterated revenue guidance of GBP 35–40m (implying ~400% growth vs two years and ~600% vs three years), EBITDA loss guidance of GBP 27–29m (≈GBP 4m improvement year‑on‑year) and year‑end cash of GBP 170–175m; this follows a record H1 to 31 Oct 2025 with revenue GBP 18.0m (equipment GBP 15.5m; engineering/spares/maintenance GBP 2.5m), gross loss improved to GBP 6.5m (from GBP 10.2m prior H1), cash GBP 197.8m (down GBP 9.2m over 12 months), capex GBP 6.9m and a contracted backlog of GBP 152m (71% profitable, up from 60% in Apr‑25) with the order book split ~85% completed‑contracts / ~15% percentage‑of‑completion (H1 included GBP 13.9m point‑in‑time legacy revenue and GBP 1.6m POC revenue); management expects increased H2 cash outflows driven by milestone timing, assumes no new contract signings in the cash guidance, and notes continued migration to overtime revenue recognition for POSEIDON/ALPHA/non‑standard NEPTUNEs.

ITM Power Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Revenue grew (+12.44%), and leverage is low (debt-to-equity 0.05), but profitability is weak with negative gross/EBIT/EBITDA/net margins and ROE. Cash flow is also pressured with negative operating and free cash flow, indicating ongoing funding and execution strain despite a stable capital structure.
Income Statement
35
Negative
ITM Power has shown some revenue growth, with a 12.44% increase in the latest year. However, the company is struggling with profitability, as indicated by negative gross, net, EBIT, and EBITDA margins. The consistent negative margins highlight ongoing operational challenges and cost management issues.
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
The company maintains a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.05, indicating conservative leverage. However, the return on equity is negative, reflecting poor profitability and efficiency in using shareholders' equity. The equity ratio is not provided, but the overall balance sheet shows a stable capital structure with low financial risk.
Cash Flow
30
Negative
ITM Power's cash flow situation is concerning, with negative operating and free cash flows. The free cash flow growth rate is negative, and the operating cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, indicating cash flow challenges. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting some ability to cover net losses with free cash flow.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue26.04M16.51M5.23M5.63M4.28M
Gross Profit-23.69M-16.66M-83.01M-34.32M-14.74M
EBITDA-37.00M-31.68M-96.05M-42.93M-24.85M
Net Income-45.52M-27.22M-101.20M-46.69M-27.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets341.96M381.78M402.32M458.17M229.07M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments207.04M230.35M283.33M366.18M176.08M
Total Debt12.33M12.70M7.81M7.15M6.49M
Total Liabilities117.71M113.06M106.81M63.21M31.62M
Stockholders Equity224.25M268.72M295.51M394.95M197.45M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-32.94M-65.08M-83.11M-49.01M-32.01M
Operating Cash Flow-20.02M-50.58M-67.99M-37.85M-20.06M
Investing Cash Flow-2.65M-795.00K-10.90M-15.38M-12.49M
Financing Cash Flow-667.00K-891.00K-95.00K243.13M168.72M

ITM Power Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price63.30
Price Trends
50DMA
66.73
Negative
100DMA
71.89
Negative
200DMA
67.34
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.50
Positive
RSI
42.81
Neutral
STOCH
15.41
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:ITM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 63.3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 65.64, below the 50-day MA of 66.73, and below the 200-day MA of 67.34, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.50 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.41 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:ITM.

ITM Power Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
£6.80B29.5123.79%1.29%-0.32%-3.96%
75
Outperform
£8.31B27.1417.68%1.26%-1.97%40.55%
73
Outperform
£1.88B47.5435.23%1.01%24.42%103.25%
67
Neutral
£632.65M23.138.04%4.87%-7.30%-59.71%
66
Neutral
£2.91B30.0216.97%2.04%1.93%-15.07%
63
Neutral
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
44
Neutral
£384.62M-12.69-18.47%57.73%-67.12%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:ITM
ITM Power
63.30
28.18
80.24%
GB:GDWN
Goodwin
25,800.00
19,117.51
286.08%
GB:IMI
IMI plc
2,826.00
896.20
46.44%
GB:MGAM
Morgan Advanced Materials
229.50
-21.34
-8.51%
GB:ROR
Rotork plc
358.40
26.19
7.88%
GB:WEIR
Weir Group plc (The)
3,246.00
932.41
40.30%

ITM Power Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
ITM Power Narrows Losses, Expands Backlog and Product Line as Green Hydrogen Pipeline Grows
Positive
Jan 29, 2026

ITM Power reported another period of operational and financial progress for the six months to 31 October 2025, with revenue rising to £18m from £15.5m, a reduced adjusted EBITDA loss of £11.9m, and a still-strong cash balance of £197.8m. The company’s contracted backlog has grown sharply to £152m and is now predominantly made up of profitable contracts, reflecting improved project economics as legacy work is phased out. Commercial momentum was underpinned by multiple new equipment and engineering contracts, major capacity reservations from utilities such as RWE, and selection for large-scale projects in Europe and Asia-Pacific, while the post-period launch of the ALPHA 50 50MW full-scope plant and continued demand for the NEPTUNE V platform are deepening its pipeline. ITM is also pushing into recurring, asset-backed revenue through Hydropulse, a new build-own-operate business focused on decentralised green hydrogen production for industrial customers and positioned to tap government funding schemes in the UK and Germany. Operationally, the group is automating manufacturing with a new autostacker line, progressing its next-generation CHRONOS stack platform, and transitioning parts of its portfolio to percentage-of-completion revenue recognition, steps that together aim to enhance margins, improve revenue visibility, and strengthen its competitive position as green hydrogen investment and policy support continue to expand globally.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ITM) stock is a Hold with a £64.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ITM Power stock, see the GB:ITM Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
ITM Power Sets Date for Interim Results and Investor Presentation
Neutral
Jan 20, 2026

ITM Power has announced that it will publish its interim results for the six months to 31 October 2025 on 29 January 2026 and will host a same-day presentation for analysts and investors led by its CEO, CFO and CTO. The event, accessible via the Investor Meet Company platform and open to both existing and potential shareholders, underscores ITM’s efforts to maintain transparent communication with the market at a time when investor attention to performance and strategy in the green hydrogen sector remains high.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ITM) stock is a Hold with a £60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ITM Power stock, see the GB:ITM Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
ITM Power Sets Date for Interim Results and Investor Presentation
Positive
Jan 20, 2026

ITM Power has announced it will publish interim results for the six months ended 31 October 2025 on 29 January 2026, accompanied by a live presentation for analysts and investors led by CEO Dennis Schulz, CFO Amy Grey and CTO Simon Bourne. The company is using the Investor Meet Company platform to broaden engagement with existing and prospective shareholders, underscoring its effort to increase transparency and investor outreach at a time when its green hydrogen technology sits at the centre of the energy transition and institutional interest in the sector remains high.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ITM) stock is a Hold with a £60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ITM Power stock, see the GB:ITM Stock Forecast page.

Other
ITM Power Executives Increase Holdings Through Buy-As-You-Earn Scheme
Positive
Jan 19, 2026

ITM Power has disclosed routine share dealings by its chief executive Dennis Schulz and chief technology officer Simon Bourne under the company’s Buy as You Earn Share Incentive Plan for January 2026. Each executive purchased 227 partnership shares, which were matched one-for-one by ITM Power with a further 227 shares, giving each a total of 454 ordinary shares acquired at £0.65989 per share on 15 January via the London Stock Exchange’s AIM market, underscoring ongoing alignment of senior management’s interests with shareholders through regular participation in the company’s employee share scheme.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ITM) stock is a Hold with a £60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ITM Power stock, see the GB:ITM Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
ITM Power Names Jürgen Nowicki as New Non-Executive Chair
Positive
Jan 16, 2026

ITM Power has confirmed that Jürgen Nowicki has formally taken over as non-executive chair of the board as of 15 January 2026, succeeding Sir Roger Bone, who has retired after leading the company through its evolution from a development-stage venture to a commercial market leader in electrolysers. The board and management emphasised that Nowicki’s sector experience is expected to support continued operational discipline, effective governance and execution of ITM Power’s growth strategy, underlining the company’s focus on consolidating its market position in green hydrogen technologies during a critical phase of industry expansion.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ITM) stock is a Hold with a £68.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ITM Power stock, see the GB:ITM Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
ITM Power Secures Green Hydrogen Contract to Support Kimberly-Clark’s Renewable Energy Goals
Positive
Dec 18, 2025

ITM Power has signed a 12.5MW contract with Octopus Energy Generation to deploy its NEPTUNE V green hydrogen systems at Kimberly-Clark’s Northfleet manufacturing plant for decarbonizing paper production. Green hydrogen will support an innovative dual-fuel boiler system, aiding Kimberly-Clark’s ambition for 100% renewable energy and showcasing the vital role of hydrogen in reducing emissions for energy-intensive industries. The facility is expected to begin operations by the end of 2027, marking a significant development for green hydrogen adoption in industrial processes.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ITM) stock is a Hold with a £68.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ITM Power stock, see the GB:ITM Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
ITM Power Strengthens Employee Engagement Initiative via BAYE Incentive Shares
Positive
Dec 17, 2025

ITM Power has announced the issuance of incentive shares to its executives as part of the Buy as You Earn program (BAYE). Through this initiative, employees can purchase shares monthly, matched on a one-to-one basis by the company. This announcement highlights the company’s commitment to employee engagement and retention while also reinforcing management alignment with shareholder interests, which could positively influence stakeholder confidence and industry positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ITM) stock is a Hold with a £68.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ITM Power stock, see the GB:ITM Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
ITM Power Secures Strategic Engineering Contracts in Australia and Canada
Positive
Dec 12, 2025

ITM Power has secured two significant engineering contracts, one for a Basic Design Engineering Package in Australia and another for a Front-End Engineering Design project in Canada, with a combined capacity of 70 MW. These contracts will utilize ITM’s NEPTUNE V containerised green hydrogen production plants, marking a strategic expansion into the Australian and Canadian markets and reinforcing ITM’s position in the green hydrogen industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ITM) stock is a Hold with a £68.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ITM Power stock, see the GB:ITM Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
ITM Power Reports Record H1 Revenue Amid Strong Hydrogen Market Growth
Positive
Dec 4, 2025

ITM Power has reported a record revenue of £18.0 million for the first half of 2025, despite an adjusted EBITDA loss of £11.9 million, and maintains a robust cash position of £197 million. The company is experiencing strong demand for its NEPTUNE V and ALPHA 50 hydrogen plants, and has made significant progress on major projects like the 100 MW PEM plant for RWE in Lingen. With a solid sales pipeline and continued advancements in product development, ITM Power is positioned as a reliable partner in the evolving hydrogen market, particularly in Europe where infrastructure investments are accelerating.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ITM) stock is a Hold with a £68.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ITM Power stock, see the GB:ITM Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
ITM Power Partners with Stablegrid for Major Hydrogen Projects in Germany
Positive
Nov 21, 2025

ITM Power has been selected by Stablegrid Group as the technology partner for two significant energy infrastructure projects in Germany, totaling 710 MW of electrolyser capacity. These projects aim to enhance grid stability and reduce redispatch costs by using hydrogen storage to balance electricity supply and consumption. The first project, ‘Netzbrücke 410’, involves a 30 MW green hydrogen plant, while the second project will see the installation of 680 MW of electrolyser capacity. This collaboration underscores ITM Power’s prominent role in the energy transition within Europe’s largest economy.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ITM) stock is a Hold with a £68.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ITM Power stock, see the GB:ITM Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
ITM Power Executive Directors Participate in Share Incentive Plan
Positive
Nov 17, 2025

ITM Power has announced the participation of its Executive Directors in the company’s Buy as You Earn (BAYE) Share Incentive Plan. Under this scheme, employees can purchase up to £150 of ordinary shares monthly, with the company matching these purchases on a one-for-one basis. This initiative reflects ITM Power’s commitment to aligning the interests of its management with those of its shareholders, potentially enhancing stakeholder confidence and reinforcing its market position in the renewable energy sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ITM) stock is a Hold with a £82.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ITM Power stock, see the GB:ITM Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 02, 2026