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Harworth Group PLC (GB:HWG)
LSE:HWG

Harworth (HWG) AI Stock Analysis

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GB:HWG

Harworth

(LSE:HWG)

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Neutral 47 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Neutral 47 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Neutral 47 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Neutral 47 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
155.00 p
▼(-4.32% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/19/26
The score is held back primarily by weak and inconsistent cash flow alongside volatile operating performance, despite a relatively solid balance sheet. Technicals are bearish with the stock trading below major moving averages, and valuation looks demanding (high P/E with a low yield), adding further downside risk.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet strength
Manageable leverage and sizable equity give Harworth capacity to fund remediation and development without immediate equity raises. A relatively solid balance sheet provides a multi-quarter buffer against timing swings in disposals, preserving optionality to progress sites or pursue JVs.
Strategic landbank and diversified monetisation
Harworth’s model—acquire, remediate, obtain planning and monetise via plot sales, development returns, rental income and JVs—creates multiple durable revenue routes. A regional landbank in the Midlands/North supports multi-year conversion of strategic sites and reduces single-channel dependence.
Historic margin strength and recurring rental income
Strong historical margins on successful promotions show the company can extract significant uplift from land conversions, while an income-producing property portfolio supplies recurring rent. That combination cushions earnings during lumpy development cycles and supports longer-term profit recovery.
Negative Factors
Weak and inconsistent cash generation
Operating and free cash flow turned sharply negative in 2025, reversing prior positive years. Persistent cash outflows reduce flexibility to fund remediation and enabling works, increasing reliance on balance-sheet capacity, debt or asset disposals and raising execution risk across the pipeline.
Volatile revenue and operating performance
Development timing drives lumpiness, but the 2025 ~30% revenue fall and an operating loss show material volatility. Such swings reduce predictability of core earnings, hinder consistent reinvestment in sites, and complicate medium-term planning for capital allocation and dividend sustainability.
Rising leverage and weakening returns on equity
Leverage has increased meaningfully while ROE plunged, indicating weaker capital efficiency. Higher indebtedness combined with falling returns raises financing risk and could constrain the company’s ability to invest in remediation or deliver planned schemes until profitability and cash generation recover.

Harworth (HWG) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Harworth Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionHarworth Group plc (HWG) is a property and regeneration company based in the UK, focused on transforming former industrial and brownfield sites into sustainable and productive developments. The company operates primarily in the real estate sector, specializing in residential, commercial, and industrial properties. Harworth's core services include land regeneration, property development, and asset management, with a commitment to creating long-term value through sustainable practices and community engagement.
How the Company Makes MoneyHarworth primarily makes money by creating value in land and property through regeneration and development, then realising that value via sales, development profits, and rental income. Key revenue streams include: (1) Land sales and development disposals: Harworth buys or controls land (often brownfield), invests in remediation and infrastructure, secures planning permissions, and then sells serviced parcels to housebuilders, developers, or end users. The uplift between acquisition/remediation cost and the sale price drives profit. (2) Development and promotion returns: On certain sites Harworth may act as master developer or site promoter, funding enabling works and planning to increase land value and then monetising through phased plot disposals or development outcomes. (3) Rental income from investment property: The group holds a portfolio of income-producing assets (e.g., industrial/warehouse or other commercial properties) generating recurring rent; it can also capture additional value through asset management and leasing, and potentially through disposals when values are attractive. (4) Joint ventures/partnership structures: Where used, partnerships with housebuilders, commercial developers, local authorities, or other stakeholders can provide risk-sharing, access to capital, or accelerated delivery; Harworth’s earnings then come from its share of profits, fees, land sales, or distributions under the relevant agreements. (5) Other contributing factors: Realisations and profitability are influenced by planning outcomes, timing of site remediation and infrastructure delivery, market conditions for residential and industrial/logistics land, and the company’s ability to progress its land pipeline from strategic land to implementable development sites.

Harworth Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Balance sheet strength (76) is a positive, but operating results are volatile (income statement 58) and cash generation deteriorated sharply (cash flow 34) with deeply negative operating/free cash flow in 2025, reducing earnings quality and financial flexibility.
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Revenue has been volatile and declined sharply in 2025 (-30.4% YoY), following a strong 2024 and a low 2023 base—typical of development-driven timing. Profitability also swung materially: 2025 reported a loss at the operating level (negative operating profit) while still posting positive net income, indicating earnings are not consistently supported by core operations. Margins were very strong in 2021–2024 but compressed significantly in 2025, reducing overall earnings quality and predictability.
Balance Sheet
76
Positive
Leverage appears manageable for the sector, with debt-to-equity staying around ~0.24–0.25 in 2024–2025 (up from ~0.07–0.10 in 2021–2023) and equity remaining sizable versus total assets. Returns on equity weakened meaningfully in 2025 (down to ~1.4% from ~8.3% in 2024), signaling reduced profitability on the capital base. Overall, the balance sheet looks solid, but the rising leverage trend and softer returns are worth monitoring.
Cash Flow
34
Negative
Cash generation weakened materially in 2025, with operating cash flow turning sharply negative and free cash flow also deeply negative, a notable deterioration from positive operating cash flow in prior years. Free cash flow has been inconsistent (negative in 2024, positive in 2021–2023), highlighting timing and working-capital swings typical in development businesses. The 2025 cash outflow reduces financial flexibility and increases reliance on balance sheet capacity if sustained.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue130.72M181.59M72.43M166.69M109.88M
Gross Profit12.31M31.08M12.35M85.31M48.47M
EBITDA33.18M77.73M54.31M61.30M30.75M
Net Income9.47M57.24M37.96M27.84M93.99M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.04B1.05B824.44M781.32M766.51M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments27.14M117.38M27.18M11.58M12.04M
Total Debt174.22M165.59M64.13M60.23M37.88M
Total Liabilities343.26M360.84M186.72M178.66M188.53M
Stockholders Equity698.98M691.66M637.72M602.66M577.98M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-61.14M-13.07M2.46M37.28M50.01M
Operating Cash Flow-51.09M34.54M2.85M37.39M50.04M
Investing Cash Flow-41.27M-37.59M15.42M-53.61M1.89M
Financing Cash Flow2.12M93.26M-2.68M15.77M-52.61M

Harworth Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price162.00
Price Trends
50DMA
166.07
Negative
100DMA
164.83
Negative
200DMA
169.96
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.54
Positive
RSI
35.84
Neutral
STOCH
42.59
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:HWG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 162 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 169.28, below the 50-day MA of 166.07, and below the 200-day MA of 169.96, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.54 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.59 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:HWG.

Harworth Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
£4.54B7.707.22%6.67%43.70%40.28%
75
Outperform
£3.75B3.987.75%5.85%-20.83%
71
Outperform
£10.14B17.683.51%4.25%-4.77%
68
Neutral
£336.29M8.245.35%5.88%-6.52%-20.26%
65
Neutral
$2.17B12.193.79%4.94%3.15%1.96%
63
Neutral
£237.52M12.506.25%3.01%22.07%130.06%
47
Neutral
£509.93M57.127.50%1.01%88.68%4.27%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:HWG
Harworth
157.00
-11.92
-7.06%
GB:BOOT
Henry Boot
177.00
-21.69
-10.92%
GB:BLND
British Land Company plc
374.60
32.64
9.55%
GB:LMP
LondonMetric Property
194.40
26.49
15.78%
GB:MTVW
Mountview Estates
8,625.00
141.69
1.67%
GB:SGRO
Segro plc (REIT)
749.40
83.80
12.59%

Harworth Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Harworth Increases Share Capital Following Restricted Share Plan Awards
Neutral
Mar 18, 2026

Harworth Group plc has issued 633,090 new ordinary shares of 10 pence each to satisfy awards released under its Restricted Share Plan, with the shares admitted to trading on 17 March 2026. Following this issuance, the company’s total shares in issue stand at 326,525,334, a figure that will be used by investors to assess and report changes in their holdings under UK disclosure rules.

The move modestly increases Harworth’s share capital and reflects the ongoing use of equity-based incentives within its long-term business model in the regeneration and strategic land sector. The updated share count may prompt some shareholders to reassess their notifiable interest thresholds, but does not signal any change in the company’s operational strategy or market focus.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:HWG) stock is a Hold with a £178.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harworth stock, see the GB:HWG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Harworth leans into industrial and data-led growth as 2025 returns outpace UK property market
Positive
Mar 17, 2026

Harworth Group reported full-year 2025 results showing modest growth in net asset measures and portfolio value, while continuing to pivot its portfolio towards industrial and logistics assets, which now represent 70% of portfolio value. The group delivered a total property return of 8.4%, outperforming the broader UK property benchmark, but saw a sharp fall in operating profit and value losses in residential developments amid market weakness.

Management highlighted strong performance in its I&L investment portfolio, where vacancy dropped to 1% and Grade A assets increased to 76% by value, supported by robust lettings, disposals and like-for-like rental growth. Harworth accelerated residential plot and freehold sales, recycling capital and significantly reducing its consented residential land bank to improve capital efficiency.

The company is pushing into power-enabled and data centre-related opportunities, with 0.8GW of power connections conditionally secured or in the network pipeline and sites positioned near hyperscale data centre projects, which could unlock higher-value transactions. Enabling works on land capable of delivering 4m sq ft of I&L space, together with a 35m sq ft I&L land bank of which three-quarters is consented or in planning, underpin a substantial development pipeline.

Harworth has also strengthened its financial capacity by refinancing and enlarging its revolving credit facility to £275m with improved margins, ending the year with liquidity of £127.1m and a relatively low loan-to-value ratio of 15.6%. This balance sheet position, coupled with strong occupier and investor interest in 1.6m sq ft of potential I&L deals, leaves the group well placed to exploit secular trends in data, reindustrialisation and clean growth while targeting attractive medium-term returns for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:HWG) stock is a Hold with a £178.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harworth stock, see the GB:HWG Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Harworth Issues New Shares Under Employee Incentive Plan, Lifts Total Count to 325.9 Million
Neutral
Mar 11, 2026

Harworth Group plc has issued 14,556 new ordinary shares of 10 pence each under its 2019 Share Incentive Plan, providing matching shares to eligible employees and reinforcing its employee ownership incentives. The new shares, admitted to trading on 10 March 2026, bring the company’s total number of ordinary shares in issue to 325,892,244, a figure shareholders will use to assess disclosure obligations under UK transparency rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:HWG) stock is a Hold with a £178.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harworth stock, see the GB:HWG Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Harworth Executives Receive Shares Under 2019 Incentive Plan
Positive
Mar 11, 2026

Harworth Group has disclosed that senior executives, including chief executive Lynda Shillaw and chief financial officer Katerina Patmore, have acquired partnership shares and received matching shares under the company’s 2019 Share Incentive Plan. The transactions, executed on 10 March on the London Stock Exchange and off-market for the matching element, reflect management’s ongoing participation in the all-employee scheme.

Under the plan, participating employees buy partnership shares out of gross salary, with additional matching shares awarded for free, which can become exempt from income tax and National Insurance if held for at least five years. The latest awards, involving modest individual volumes at or around £1.675 per share for purchases and nil-cost matching shares, further align the interests of Harworth’s leadership team and wider workforce with shareholders through increased equity ownership.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:HWG) stock is a Hold with a £178.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harworth stock, see the GB:HWG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing Changes
Harworth Seeks LSE Admission for New Shares to Satisfy Option Plans
Neutral
Mar 2, 2026

Harworth Group has applied to the London Stock Exchange for the admission to trading of 633,090 new ordinary shares, each with a nominal value of 10 pence, on the main market. These shares will be issued over time to satisfy exercises of options granted under the company’s Restricted Share Plan, a key component of its employee and management incentive structure.

The new shares will rank pari passu with Harworth’s existing ordinary shares, meaning they will carry the same rights as current stockholders’ holdings once admitted. Admission is expected at 8 a.m. on 4 March 2026, implying a modest potential dilution for existing shareholders but reinforcing the company’s commitment to aligning incentives with long-term shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:HWG) stock is a Hold with a £178.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harworth stock, see the GB:HWG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Harworth Adds Barclays as Joint Corporate Broker to Bolster Market Support
Positive
Feb 25, 2026

Harworth Group plc has appointed Barclays Bank plc as a joint corporate broker alongside Peel Hunt LLP, effective immediately. The move strengthens Harworth’s capital markets support and is likely aimed at enhancing its investor engagement and market positioning as it continues to develop its extensive strategic land and regeneration portfolio in the UK.

By bolstering its advisory and broking bench with a major bank, Harworth may improve access to equity investors and deepen liquidity in its shares. This appointment underscores the company’s focus on maintaining strong relationships with the financial community as it pursues long-term value creation in the industrial, logistics and residential land markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:HWG) stock is a Hold with a £178.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harworth stock, see the GB:HWG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Harworth boosts management alignment with fresh awards under 2019 share plan
Positive
Feb 17, 2026

Harworth Group has granted senior executives additional equity under its 2019 Share Incentive Plan, with the chief executive, chief financial officer and other PDMRs acquiring partnership shares on the London Stock Exchange and receiving matching shares for nil consideration. The awards, which become more tax-efficient if held for at least five years, further align management’s remuneration with shareholder returns and reinforce the company’s use of share-based incentives to retain and motivate key leadership.

The latest SIP transactions underscore Harworth’s continued reliance on equity participation to deepen management’s stake in the business at a time when long-term regeneration projects require stable strategic oversight. By increasing senior leaders’ direct ownership, the move is likely to be viewed positively by investors focused on governance and alignment, though the actual share volumes involved are relatively modest and have limited immediate impact on the company’s capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:HWG) stock is a Hold with a £178.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harworth stock, see the GB:HWG Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Harworth Issues New Shares Under Employee Incentive Plan, Updates Voting Rights Total
Neutral
Feb 17, 2026

Harworth Group plc has issued 2,760 new ordinary shares of 10 pence each under its 2019 Share Incentive Plan, providing “Matching Shares” to eligible employees through its existing block listing facility. The new shares, which were admitted to trading on 16 February 2026, bring the company’s total number of ordinary shares in issue to 325,877,688, a new baseline figure for shareholders’ regulatory disclosure calculations under UK transparency rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:HWG) stock is a Hold with a £178.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harworth stock, see the GB:HWG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Harworth leans into industrial and logistics growth as housing headwinds delay £1bn value goal
Neutral
Jan 22, 2026

Harworth Group reported a strong 2025 trading performance in its industrial and logistics (I&L) operations, with continued outperformance across its land and property portfolio, positive value uplifts on development-ready sites, and a growing pipeline of consented Grade A space that is attracting solid occupier and investor interest. New lettings, higher headline rents, and improved portfolio quality and occupancy underline the success of its strategic pivot toward I&L, even as residential land sales have been pressured by ongoing weakness in the UK housing market, leading to plot disposals at discounts to book value and tempering group-level value gains and EPRA NDV growth. The company has recycled £343m of capital since 2020 by accelerating residential plot sales and cutting consented residential volumes by two-thirds, redeploying funds into higher-returning I&L opportunities and building its largest ever pipeline of development-ready I&L land targeting structurally undersupplied sectors including advanced manufacturing, defence, energy and data centres. While Harworth still aims to reach £1bn in EPRA NDV, macroeconomic headwinds and investor uncertainty mean that milestone is now expected between the end of 2028 and 2029 rather than by December 2027, though management points to rising post-Budget deal activity, a robust land bank and strong interest in key strategic sites such as Northern Gateway, Wingates and Gateway 45 as reasons for confidence in delivering attractive long-term shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:HWG) stock is a Hold with a £178.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harworth stock, see the GB:HWG Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Harworth Executives Receive Shares Under 2019 Incentive Plan
Neutral
Jan 19, 2026

Harworth Group has disclosed that under its 2019 Share Incentive Plan, senior executives including the chief executive, chief financial officer and other PDMRs acquired partnership shares and were granted matching shares in the company on 15 January 2026. The transactions, executed at £1.684 per share for the partnership shares and at nil cost for the matching shares, are intended to incentivise and retain key management by increasing their equity participation, reinforcing alignment between leadership and shareholders as the awards vest over a five-year holding period.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:HWG) stock is a Hold with a £178.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harworth stock, see the GB:HWG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Harworth Issues New Shares to Fulfil Employee Incentive Awards
Neutral
Jan 19, 2026

Harworth Group plc has issued 1,636 new ordinary shares of 10 pence each under its block listing facility to satisfy awards of matching shares granted to eligible employees under the Harworth 2019 Share Incentive Plan. The new shares, which were admitted to trading on 15 January 2026, bring the company’s total number of ordinary shares in issue to 325,874,928, a figure that will be used by investors to calculate disclosure thresholds under UK financial transparency rules, though the small size of the issuance means minimal dilution for existing shareholders while supporting employee share ownership.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:HWG) stock is a Hold with a £178.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harworth stock, see the GB:HWG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Harworth Posts £110m FY2025 Sales as Portfolio Shifts Further to Grade A Industrial Assets
Positive
Jan 19, 2026

Harworth Group reported headline sales of £110.2m for FY2025, driven by 25 transactions spanning £58.2m of industrial & logistics and £52.0m of residential plot sales, despite a challenging macroeconomic environment and a delayed UK Budget that pushed many deals into late in the year. The group sold five core industrial and logistics investment assets totalling 0.8m sq ft for £47.7m at a blended net initial yield of 7.6%, achieving prices ahead of mid-2025 book values and lifting the proportion of its investment portfolio classified as Grade A to 75% by value, while disposing of 1,837 residential plots broadly in line with historical volumes though at a discount to book value, reflecting current market conditions; management reiterated a disciplined capital recycling strategy, targeting leverage below 20% and an 85% portfolio weighting to industrial and logistics, and signalled ongoing reinvestment into higher-quality development opportunities as a key driver of future growth and portfolio upgrade.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:HWG) stock is a Hold with a £178.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harworth stock, see the GB:HWG Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Mar 19, 2026