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Harbour Energy (GB:HBR)
LSE:HBR
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Harbour Energy (HBR) AI Stock Analysis

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GB:HBR

Harbour Energy

(LSE:HBR)

Rating:70Neutral
Price Target:
244.00p
▲(7.39% Upside)
Harbour Energy's strong operational performance and positive earnings call guidance are the most significant factors driving the score. The technical analysis supports a bullish trend, though valuation concerns due to a negative P/E ratio and overbought signals temper the outlook. The company's robust dividend yield and strategic initiatives further support the stock's attractiveness.
Positive Factors
Production Increase
The acquisition of Wintershall DEA is expected to significantly increase production to potentially 450-475k boepd.
Shareholder Returns
Harbour continues to look cheap alongside an attractive shareholder returns policy, including both dividends and share buybacks.
Negative Factors
Market Confidence
The share price movement on the results announcement indicates that the market does not believe the free cash flow generation potential.
Tax Impact
The impact of windfall tax on the UK assets is now abundantly clear- the UK now has the lowest post-tax return on investment across the entire business.
Valuation
The risked NPV10 valuation for Harbour has been cut by approximately 28%, leading to a lower target price.

Harbour Energy (HBR) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Harbour Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionHarbour Energy plc, an independent oil and gas company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil and gas reserves. It holds 124 license interests and 48 producing fields in various properties located in the United Kingdom, Norwegian Continental Shelves, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Mexico. The company is based in Edinburgh, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyHarbour Energy generates revenue primarily through the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of these hydrocarbon products to refineries and other industrial customers. Harbour Energy's earnings are influenced by factors such as global oil and gas prices, production volumes, and operational efficiency. Additionally, the company may engage in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to enhance its exploration and production capabilities, further contributing to its revenue. Harbour Energy's focus on cost management and optimization of production processes also plays a crucial role in maintaining its profitability.

Harbour Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 11.26%|
Next Earnings Date:Mar 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Harbour Energy demonstrated strong operational and financial performance, significantly boosting production and cash flow, with substantial shareholder returns planned. However, challenges such as increased safety incidents and workforce reductions persist, particularly in the UK market.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Production Surge
Production in the first half reached 488,000 barrels per day, almost three times the previous year, significantly enhanced by the Wintershall Dea transaction.
Strong Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns
Improved full year cash flow outlook to $1 billion and announced a new $100 million share buyback, bringing expected total shareholder distributions for 2025 to $550 million.
Operational Efficiency
Unit operating costs reduced by more than 30% to $12.40 per barrel, reflecting the addition of the Wintershall Dea portfolio and strong production volumes.
Debt Reduction
Strengthened financial position by reducing net debt by $0.9 billion to $3.8 billion, achieving a leverage of 0.5x.
Environmental Progress
Achieved a step change improvement in greenhouse gas intensity, now down by more than 1/3 to 12 kilograms per barrel, below peer average.
Negative Updates
Increased Incident Rates
Occupational safety incident rate increased since the Wintershall Dea transaction, reflecting performance variability in new countries.
Aberdeen Workforce Reduction
Reduction in Aberdeen workforce to align with lower levels of UK investment due to challenging fiscal and regulatory environment.
FX and Tax Headwinds
U.S. dollar depreciation impacted financials, and adjustments were made for a $300 million charge related to the extension of the Energy Profit Levy in the U.K.
Company Guidance
In the call, Harbour Energy provided an optimistic guidance for 2025, highlighting their robust performance in the first half of the year. The company produced an average of 488,000 barrels per day, nearly triple the previous year, leading to a $1 billion cash flow outlook for the year and announcing a $100 million share buyback. Production guidance was revised upwards to 460,000 to 475,000 barrels per day, and unit operating costs were reduced by over 30% to $12.40 per barrel. Harbour Energy also decreased their full year OpEx guidance to $13.50 per barrel, citing strong cost control and the divestment of their high-cost Vietnam operations. The company invested $1.1 billion in capital projects in the first half, maintaining their CapEx guidance of $2.4 billion to $2.5 billion for the year, with a focus on converting reserves into production. Additionally, they successfully reduced their net debt to $3.8 billion, with leverage at 0.5x. Harbour Energy's strategic acquisitions, particularly the Wintershall Dea transaction, were credited for enhancing production scale, cash flow resilience, and longevity.

Harbour Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Harbour Energy demonstrates strong revenue growth and operational efficiency, with a significant increase in revenue from $3.7 billion to $6.2 billion. Despite a net loss affecting profitability, the company maintains robust EBIT and EBITDA margins. The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio typical for the industry, but with improvements in equity. Cash flows remain healthy, supporting operational activities.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Harbour Energy has shown a strong revenue trajectory with significant growth from $3.7 billion to $6.2 billion in the latest year. Gross profit margin increased, indicating improved efficiency. However, the company's net profit margin is negative due to a net loss, highlighting profitability challenges. Despite these issues, the company maintains robust EBIT and EBITDA margins, reflecting strong operational performance.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating leverage concerns, but this is typical in capital-intensive industries like oil and gas. The company's equity ratio has improved, suggesting a stronger financial position. Return on equity is affected by the net loss, but previous years show better performance.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Operating cash flow remains strong, demonstrating the company's ability to generate cash from operations. Free cash flow is positive, although its growth rate has slowed. The free cash flow to net income ratio is less informative due to the net loss, but operating cash flow supports stability.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue6.16B3.71B5.43B3.48B2.41B
Gross Profit2.54B1.34B2.54B1.16B566.40M
EBITDA3.31B2.32B4.21B1.91B546.10M
Net Income-93.00M45.00M8.00M101.10M-778.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets30.32B9.90B12.57B14.50B9.48B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments830.00M280.00M524.00M702.00M445.40M
Total Debt6.02B1.28B2.06B3.54B2.32B
Total Liabilities24.07B8.36B11.54B14.03B8.42B
Stockholders Equity6.25B1.55B1.02B473.50M1.07B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow293.00M1.34B2.52B1.00B775.30M
Operating Cash Flow1.61B2.14B3.13B1.61B1.37B
Investing Cash Flow-2.28B-693.00M-628.60M-571.00M-603.20M
Financing Cash Flow1.23B-1.67B-2.67B-787.20M-899.40M

Harbour Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price227.20
Price Trends
50DMA
200.34
Positive
100DMA
185.96
Positive
200DMA
209.12
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
3.83
Negative
RSI
74.01
Negative
STOCH
69.19
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:HBR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 227.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 201.80, above the 50-day MA of 200.34, and above the 200-day MA of 209.12, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.83 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.01 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:HBR.

Harbour Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
£1.73B11.6917.50%5.68%-9.80%-1.98%
78
Outperform
£1.53B14.127.92%3.91%118.04%65.66%
70
Neutral
£3.82B21.62-11.32%7.81%29.33%
67
Neutral
£2.89B15.84-5.65%15.19%1.04%-156.59%
67
Neutral
£657.93M8.79-4.31%11.52%-32.89%-239.58%
66
Neutral
$15.06B9.287.36%5.56%3.96%-72.38%
63
Neutral
£848.05M-16.60%7.65%-11.09%-110.76%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:HBR
Harbour Energy
227.20
-37.67
-14.22%
GB:DEC
Diversified Energy Company
1,095.00
110.05
11.17%
GB:SEPL
SEPLAT Petroleum Development
269.50
94.53
54.03%
GB:SQZ
Serica Energy
165.00
52.57
46.76%
GB:ENOG
Energean
937.50
89.04
10.49%
GB:ITH
Ithaca Energy PLC
170.60
69.18
68.21%

Harbour Energy Corporate Events

Stock Buyback
Harbour Energy Launches $100 Million Share Buyback Program
Positive
Aug 7, 2025

Harbour Energy announced a $100 million share buyback program to reduce its share capital, with all repurchased shares to be canceled. The program, executed by Merrill Lynch International, will run from August 8, 2025, to March 31, 2026, and is expected to impact the company’s financial structure and shareholder value positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:HBR) stock is a Buy with a £3.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harbour Energy stock, see the GB:HBR Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsStock BuybackBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Harbour Energy Announces Strong H1 2025 Results and $100 Million Share Buyback
Positive
Aug 7, 2025

Harbour Energy reported strong operational results for the first half of 2025, driven by the successful integration of the Wintershall Dea acquisition, which enhanced the company’s scale and resilience. The company announced a $100 million share buyback program, reflecting improved free cash flow and a strengthened financial position. Harbour Energy achieved a significant increase in production, reduced operating costs, and improved greenhouse gas intensity. The company also made strategic decisions, including divesting its Vietnam business and reducing its UK workforce, to align with market conditions and fiscal environments. These actions are expected to support further debt reduction and shareholder returns, positioning Harbour Energy for continued growth and stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:HBR) stock is a Buy with a £3.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harbour Energy stock, see the GB:HBR Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Harbour Energy Announces Leadership Change with Resignation of Senior Director
Neutral
Jul 7, 2025

Harbour Energy announced the resignation of Simon Henry, the Senior Independent Director and Non-Executive Director, effective immediately as he pursues other opportunities. Alan Ferguson will serve as the interim Senior Independent Director. Simon’s tenure coincided with significant growth for Harbour, notably the acquisition of Wintershall Dea assets in 2024. The company expressed gratitude for Simon’s contributions and confidence in Alan’s interim leadership.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:HBR) stock is a Buy with a £3.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harbour Energy stock, see the GB:HBR Stock Forecast page.

Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Harbour Energy Discloses $1.7 Billion in Government Payments for 2024
Neutral
Jun 10, 2025

Harbour Energy PLC has released its report on payments made to governments for the year ended December 31, 2024, in compliance with regulatory requirements. The company reported a total of $1,685 million in payments, with significant contributions from income taxes and royalties across multiple countries. This disclosure highlights Harbour Energy’s financial interactions with governments, reflecting its global operational footprint and compliance with international transparency standards.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:HBR) stock is a Buy with a £3.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harbour Energy stock, see the GB:HBR Stock Forecast page.

DividendsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Harbour Energy Corrects Transaction Notification for CFO Share Acquisition
Neutral
May 29, 2025

Harbour Energy announced a correction to a previous notification regarding a transaction by a Person Discharging Managerial Responsibility (PDMR). The Chief Financial Officer, Alexander Krane, acquired 9,644.03 Ordinary Shares through a Dividend Reinvestment Plan, with the transaction taking place on the London Stock Exchange. This transaction reflects the company’s adherence to UK Market Abuse Regulations and highlights the ongoing engagement of its management in the company’s financial activities.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:HBR) stock is a Buy with a £400.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harbour Energy stock, see the GB:HBR Stock Forecast page.

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Harbour Energy CFO Acquires Shares Through DRIP
Neutral
May 29, 2025

Harbour Energy announced that Alexander Krane, the Chief Financial Officer, acquired 9,644.03 ordinary shares through a Dividend Reinvestment Plan. This transaction, conducted on the London Stock Exchange, reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to aligning management interests with shareholder value, potentially impacting investor confidence and market perception.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:HBR) stock is a Buy with a £400.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harbour Energy stock, see the GB:HBR Stock Forecast page.

Other
Harbour Energy Director Increases Stake with Share Purchase
Positive
May 13, 2025

Harbour Energy announced that Belgacem Chariag, an Independent Non-Executive Director, has acquired 20,000 ordinary shares of the company at a price of 178.255 pence each. This transaction signifies a personal investment by a key company figure, potentially indicating confidence in the company’s future performance and stability, which may positively influence stakeholder perceptions.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:HBR) stock is a Buy with a £400.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harbour Energy stock, see the GB:HBR Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Harbour Energy Announces Executive Share Awards Under 2025 LTIP
Neutral
May 12, 2025

Harbour Energy has announced the granting of share awards under its 2025 Long Term Incentive Plan to its Executive Directors, Linda Z. Cook and Alexander Krane. These awards, which include Performance Share Awards and Restricted Share Awards, are contingent on meeting specific performance criteria over a three-year period. Additionally, a one-off award was granted to Alexander Krane in recognition of his contributions since the company’s formation. These awards are part of Harbour’s strategy to align executive incentives with company performance and shareholder interests, potentially impacting the company’s operational focus and stakeholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:HBR) stock is a Buy with a £400.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harbour Energy stock, see the GB:HBR Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Harbour Energy PLC Approves AGM Resolutions Amidst Shareholder Engagement Plans
Neutral
May 8, 2025

Harbour Energy PLC held its Annual General Meeting on May 8, 2025, where all proposed resolutions were approved by shareholders. Notably, Louise Hough was appointed to the Nomination Committee following Andy Hopwood’s departure. While most resolutions received strong support, the Directors’ Remuneration Policy received slightly less than 80% approval, prompting the company to plan further shareholder engagement to address concerns. The company will provide updates on shareholder feedback and actions taken in response within six months, in accordance with the UK Corporate Governance Code.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Harbour Energy Reports Strong Q1 2025 Performance and Strategic Financial Moves
Positive
May 8, 2025

Harbour Energy reported a strong first quarter in 2025, with production averaging 500 kboepd due to the integration of Wintershall Dea assets and improved operational efficiency. The company generated significant free cash flow of approximately $0.7 billion, supported by improved European gas prices and reduced unit costs. Harbour Energy’s diverse portfolio and prudent risk management have allowed it to navigate market volatility effectively. The company has issued $1.9 billion in bonds to strengthen its financial position and reduce net debt by $0.5 billion. Despite challenging domestic fiscal and regulatory environments, Harbour Energy remains well-positioned to meet its capital allocation priorities, with potential for additional shareholder returns.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 08, 2025