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Serica Energy PLC (GB:SQZ)
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Serica Energy (SQZ) AI Stock Analysis

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GB:SQZ

Serica Energy

(LSE:SQZ)

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Neutral 66 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
234.00p
▲(7.83% Upside)
Serica Energy's overall score reflects a stable financial position with strong technical momentum. The company's challenges in revenue consistency and profit margins are offset by a strong balance sheet and positive future outlook. The high dividend yield adds valuation support, but the negative P/E ratio and operational challenges present risks.
Positive Factors
Strong Financial Liquidity
Strong liquidity provides financial flexibility, enabling Serica to invest in growth opportunities and weather market volatility, supporting long-term stability.
Operational Efficiency
Efficient operations reduce costs and enhance profitability, allowing Serica to reinvest savings into further exploration and development, bolstering competitive advantage.
Production Optimization
Improved production rates enhance revenue potential and asset utilization, strengthening Serica's market position and supporting sustainable growth.
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth Challenges
Inconsistent revenue growth can hinder long-term planning and investment, potentially affecting Serica's ability to maintain competitive operations and shareholder returns.
Regulatory and Tax Environment Concerns
Regulatory uncertainties can delay projects and increase costs, impacting Serica's strategic planning and ability to capitalize on new opportunities.
Operational Challenges
Persistent operational challenges can reduce production efficiency and increase maintenance costs, affecting Serica's profitability and operational reliability.

Serica Energy (SQZ) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Serica Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSerica Energy plc, an upstream oil and gas company, engages in the identification, acquisition, exploration, and exploitation of oil and gas reserves. The company holds 100% interest in the Keith oil fields; 98% interest in the Bruce gas fields; and 50% interest in the Rhum gas fields located in the Northern North Sea, as well as 18% non-operating interest in the Erskine field located in Central North Sea. It also operates the Columbus development, and Skerryvore and Ruvaal prospects located in Central North Sea; and North and South Eigg exploration prospects located in the Northern North Sea. Serica Energy plc was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Aberdeen, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneySerica Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil and natural gas produced from its operated and non-operated assets in the North Sea. The company benefits from a diversified revenue model that includes the sale of hydrocarbons at market prices, which can fluctuate based on global oil and gas markets. Key revenue streams include production from its flagship assets, such as the Bruce, Keith, and Rhum fields, along with potential revenues from new discoveries. Additionally, Serica may enter into joint ventures and partnerships to share the costs and risks associated with exploration and development, further enhancing its financial stability and growth potential.

Serica Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call highlighted significant operational achievements and future strategic plans, including successful cost management and production optimization at BKR. However, challenges with regulatory uncertainties and operational inefficiencies at Triton and Bruce were noted. Despite these challenges, the company's financial position remains strong, with a positive outlook for 2026.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Production Optimization Success at BKR
Production optimization efforts at BKR have pushed production from the hub net to Serica to nearly 22,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in July, showing improvement in daily production run rate.
Successful Triton Drilling Program
The Triton drilling program was completed 25 days ahead of schedule and $31 million under budget, showcasing effective cost management and operational efficiency.
Strong Financial Liquidity and Dividend Declaration
Despite challenges, Serica maintained strong liquidity of $433 million and declared a sustainable interim dividend of 6p, indicating confidence in future cash generation.
Positive Production Outlook for 2026
The company anticipates a strong free cash flow in 2026, with potential new projects in the pipeline that promise to enhance production capacity and shareholder value.
Negative Updates
Triton FPSO Downtime Impact
Unscheduled downtime at Triton significantly impacted production, with the FPSO being offline from January to June 2025, leading to a 40% reduction in production in H1 2025 compared to H1 2024.
Regulatory and Tax Environment Concerns
Ongoing regulatory and tax uncertainties, including potential unfavorable political decisions, continue to pose challenges to future projects like Kyle and overall company strategy.
Operational Challenges and Maintenance Backlogs
Operational issues at Bruce and Triton facilities remain, with a focus needed on improving uptime and addressing maintenance backlogs to optimize production efficiency.
Company Guidance
During the recent call, Serica Energy plc provided guidance on various operational and financial metrics. The company experienced a challenging first half of 2025, marked by unscheduled downtime at Triton, which impacted production. Despite these setbacks, Serica remains optimistic about a stronger second half of the year and anticipates being highly cash generative by 2026. The company reported a production rate at the BKR hub of nearly 22,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in July. Efforts are underway to increase daily production run rates above 50,000 barrels per day. Serica is also focusing on value-accretive M&A opportunities and the potential development of new fields like Kyle. Financially, Serica announced a pre-tax profit despite reduced revenues, with net debt decreasing from $83 million to $57 million. The company maintained strong liquidity of $433 million at the period's end. Looking ahead, Serica plans to invest approximately $0.25 billion before tax this year, with a focus on the Belinda production project. The interim dividend announced remains consistent with the 2024 final dividend, signaling confidence in the company's cash generation potential.

Serica Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Serica Energy has a stable financial base with a strong balance sheet and low leverage. However, challenges in profit margins and inconsistent revenue growth impact overall profitability and cash flow. Improvements in revenue stability and efficiency in converting revenues into profits are needed.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Serica Energy shows a mixed performance in the income statement. The gross profit margin is healthy, but there is a noticeable decline in net profit and EBIT margins compared to previous years. Revenue growth is inconsistent, with a notable decrease from 2022 to 2023. The company needs to stabilize its revenue and profit margins for improved financial health.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
The balance sheet is strong with a satisfactory equity ratio and zero debt in recent years, indicating low financial risk. However, the return on equity has decreased from previous levels, which could signal inefficiencies in generating profits from equity. Overall, the company maintains a stable financial position with minimal leverage.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash flow performance is moderate, with some inconsistencies in free cash flow growth. The operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests efficient cash generation from operations, yet the free cash flow to net income ratio has been fluctuating. The company should focus on enhancing its free cash flow to support future investments.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue657.44M727.18M632.64M998.52M514.14M125.64M
Gross Profit290.19M223.20M306.57M730.40M386.82M-2.92M
EBITDA389.90M380.03M538.44M684.98M172.68M51.55M
Net Income-7.19M92.43M102.98M215.17M79.29M7.78M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.26B1.46B1.58B862.38M686.67M447.46M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments362.20M118.58M263.12M414.43M80.08M89.33M
Total Debt173.14M224.32M213.03M213.00K0.00516.00K
Total Liabilities602.79M668.29M582.80M453.66M414.14M247.62M
Stockholders Equity658.08M796.46M655.26M408.72M272.53M199.85M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-3.20M21.39M23.67M569.11M105.44M17.43M
Operating Cash Flow150.53M281.56M98.01M688.45M157.60M44.07M
Investing Cash Flow-141.73M-253.91M-108.77M-229.19M-134.35M-47.94M
Financing Cash Flow-167.16M-213.28M-154.37M-56.08M-9.25M-7.99M

Serica Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price217.00
Price Trends
50DMA
177.76
Positive
100DMA
168.77
Positive
200DMA
146.80
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
9.58
Negative
RSI
67.54
Neutral
STOCH
86.95
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:SQZ, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 217 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 191.12, above the 50-day MA of 177.76, and above the 200-day MA of 146.80, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 9.58 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.95 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:SQZ.

Serica Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
£852.87M-33.28-4.31%7.37%-32.89%-239.58%
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
£393.21M-1,132.50-0.09%8.32%38.03%94.56%
£222.77M-2.64-26.37%3.71%-18.05%-634.88%
£733.10M-4.67-22.53%8.64%56.20%-185.69%
£381.22M-29.69-100.00%-84.62%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:SQZ
Serica Energy
217.00
95.09
78.00%
GB:DEC
Diversified Energy Company
960.00
93.99
10.85%
GB:ENQ
Enquest
12.14
0.49
4.21%
GB:PANR
Pantheon Resources
27.95
4.95
21.52%
GB:RKH
Rockhopper Exploration
82.20
68.75
511.15%
GB:GKP
Gulf Keystone Petroleum
181.20
63.09
53.42%

Serica Energy Corporate Events

Delistings and Listing ChangesM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Serica Energy Delays Move to Main Market Amid M&A Activity
Neutral
Oct 22, 2025

Serica Energy has announced a delay in its planned move from the AIM to the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange, initially expected to be completed in the fourth quarter of 2025. The delay is attributed to recent mergers and acquisitions, which necessitate additional regulatory disclosures, including a Competent Person’s Report on acquired reserves and resources. The company now anticipates completing the move after publishing its audited FY 2025 accounts and consolidated year-end information, reflecting its commitment to advancing its market position despite the temporary setback.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:SQZ) stock is a Buy with a £240.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Serica Energy stock, see the GB:SQZ Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Serica Energy Resumes and Ramps Up Production at Triton FPSO
Positive
Oct 21, 2025

Serica Energy announced the resumption of production at the Triton FPSO following a temporary suspension due to an issue with the flare system. Production has now ramped up to over 25,000 boepd net to Serica, aligning with the company’s operational expectations. This development is significant for Serica’s production capabilities and may positively impact its market positioning and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:SQZ) stock is a Buy with a £240.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Serica Energy stock, see the GB:SQZ Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Serica Energy to Acquire BP’s North Sea Assets, Boosting Gas Production
Positive
Oct 13, 2025

Serica Energy has announced an agreement to acquire BP’s stake in the P111 and P2544 licences in the UK Central North Sea, which includes a significant interest in the Culzean gas condensate field. This acquisition, if completed, is expected to significantly enhance Serica’s production and cash flows, positioning it as a major player in the UK North Sea gas market. The transaction involves an upfront cash consideration of $232 million and potential contingent payments, with funding sourced from interim cashflows and existing financial resources. The acquisition is subject to a pre-emption period, allowing current partners the option to acquire BP’s stake on the same terms.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:SQZ) stock is a Buy with a £240.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Serica Energy stock, see the GB:SQZ Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Serica Energy Faces Production Challenges at Triton FPSO
Negative
Oct 8, 2025

Serica Energy has announced a temporary suspension of production at the Triton FPSO due to an issue with the flare system, which is expected to result in production levels falling below the previously guided range of 29,000 to 32,000 boepd. The company is engaging with the operator to address the issue and improve performance, aiming to align production levels with the subsurface potential. This situation highlights operational challenges for Serica, impacting its production forecasts and potentially affecting stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:SQZ) stock is a Buy with a £240.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Serica Energy stock, see the GB:SQZ Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Serica Energy Expands North Sea Portfolio with Strategic Acquisition
Positive
Sep 30, 2025

Serica Energy has announced the acquisition of Prax Upstream Limited, which includes a 100% interest in the Lancaster field and various stakes in other North Sea assets. This acquisition, valued at $25.6 million, is expected to diversify Serica’s portfolio, increase reserves, and enhance cash flow. The deal positions Serica as a significant operator in the West of Shetland basin, with new opportunities for production and growth. The acquisition is anticipated to be completed by the end of 2025, with further financial benefits expected in 2026, including substantial free cash flow and low decommissioning liabilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:SQZ) stock is a Hold with a £160.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Serica Energy stock, see the GB:SQZ Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Serica Energy Adjusts 2025 Production Guidance Amid Maintenance
Negative
Sep 10, 2025

Serica Energy announced a temporary reduction in production at the Triton FPSO due to maintenance and subsea intervention work. The production guidance for 2025 has been adjusted from 33,000-35,000 boepd to 29,000-32,000 boepd. The maintenance includes addressing a vibration issue in the compression trains, with normal operations expected to resume by the end of September. Additionally, subsea work on the Bittern field scheduled for November will temporarily halt production from the Evelyn and Gannet fields, reducing output by over 20,000 boepd. These developments are crucial for stakeholders as they impact Serica’s production targets and operational efficiency.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:SQZ) stock is a Hold with a £184.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Serica Energy stock, see the GB:SQZ Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Serica Energy Resumes Oil Lifting at Triton FPSO
Positive
Aug 22, 2025

Serica Energy has announced the first lifting of oil from the Triton FPSO following the resumption of production. Production is ramping up as planned, with several wells being brought online, and Triton Hub production averaging 20,000 boepd net to Serica. The company maintains its production guidance for the year at 33,000 to 35,000 boepd, despite the annual maintenance period at the Bruce Hub.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:SQZ) stock is a Buy with a £2.15 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Serica Energy stock, see the GB:SQZ Stock Forecast page.

Serica Energy Navigates Challenges with Strategic Resilience
Aug 8, 2025

Serica Energy’s recent earnings call painted a picture of a company navigating operational challenges with resilience and strategic foresight. Despite facing significant hurdles, particularly with the Triton FPSO, the company demonstrated strong financial management and cost-saving measures, which provide a positive outlook for future cash generation. However, political uncertainties remain a potential risk factor.

Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Serica Energy Reports Resilient H1 2025 Performance and Future Growth Plans
Positive
Aug 5, 2025

Serica Energy reported a resilient financial performance for the first half of 2025, despite challenges such as the downtime at the Triton FPSO. The company is optimistic about increasing production levels to around 50,000 boepd with new wells coming onstream and optimization work at the Bruce Hub. The company is also advancing future production opportunities, including the Belinda field, and plans to replicate the success of its recent drilling campaign. Serica’s robust cash position supports its strategy of funding organic growth and maintaining dividends, while also exploring M&A opportunities in the UK North Sea.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:SQZ) stock is a Buy with a £185.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Serica Energy stock, see the GB:SQZ Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 02, 2025