tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Serica Energy PLC (GB:SQZ)
LSE:SQZ
Advertisement

Serica Energy (SQZ) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
228 Followers

Top Page

GB:SQZ

Serica Energy

(LSE:SQZ)

Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
181.00p
▲(9.70% Upside)
Serica Energy's overall score reflects a stable financial position and positive technical indicators, tempered by valuation concerns and operational challenges. The company's strong financial management and strategic initiatives provide a positive outlook, but political uncertainties and inconsistent revenue growth remain risks.
Positive Factors
Production Guidance
The risk of missing production guidance is now seen as low, assuming the extended maintenance shutdown runs to plan.
Valuation
The risked NAV has been increased from 200p to 221p per share, reflecting positive adjustments.
Negative Factors
Operational Performance
Triton's uptime has deteriorated every year since 2021, affecting overall performance.
Production Downgrades
Another update on the Triton FPSO, another downgrade to production for 2025.

Serica Energy (SQZ) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Serica Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSerica Energy (SQZ) is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company headquartered in the United Kingdom. The company operates primarily in the North Sea, focusing on the development and production of hydrocarbons. Serica Energy is committed to maximizing the value of its assets through efficient operations and strategic investments, with a portfolio that includes interests in several producing fields and exploration prospects.
How the Company Makes MoneySerica Energy makes money through the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas resources. The company's primary revenue streams come from the sale of oil and gas extracted from its operated fields in the North Sea. Serica Energy holds interests in various production licenses, contributing to its revenue through the sale of hydrocarbons to the market. The company's earnings are influenced by factors such as the global prices of oil and gas, production volumes, and operational efficiencies. In addition, strategic partnerships and joint ventures with other energy companies can enhance its operational capabilities and revenue potential.

Serica Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 4.96%|
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a company facing operational challenges, particularly with the Triton FPSO, but also demonstrates resilience through strong financial management and cost-saving measures. While production was impacted, strategic initiatives and successful cost management provide a positive outlook for future cash generation, although political uncertainties pose potential risks.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Successful Cost Savings on Triton Drilling
The Triton drilling program was completed 25 days ahead of schedule and $31 million under budget, indicating strong operational efficiency and cost management.
Increased Production at BKR
Production at the BKR hub increased to nearly 22,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in July, showing progress in production optimization efforts.
Strong Cash Position and Liquidity
Serica maintained a strong liquidity position of $433 million and reduced net debt from $83 million to $57 million, showcasing financial resilience.
Positive Outlook for Cash Generation
The company expects strong free cash flow in 2026, driven by resumed production at Triton and successful cost management strategies.
Negative Updates
Significant Production Outage at Triton
The unscheduled downtime at Triton significantly affected production, reducing it by over 40% compared to H1 2024, leading to a substantial decline in revenues.
Challenges with FPSO Restart
The resumption of production at Triton FPSO faced delays and teething problems, impacting ramp-up speed and overall production targets.
Political Uncertainty Impacting Operations
Comments from political figures about windfall taxes create uncertainty, potentially affecting future investments and operations, particularly regarding the Kyle development.
Company Guidance
During the call, Serica Energy plc provided guidance on various performance metrics and future expectations. The company reported a decrease in production by over 40% in H1 2025 compared to H1 2024, largely due to unscheduled downtime at Triton. Despite this, revenues were slightly less impacted, dropping to $305 million due to stronger Q1 gas prices. Net debt decreased from $83 million to $57 million by the end of June, attributed in part to a $71 million tax rebate. In July, production from the BKR hub improved to nearly 22,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. The company expects a substantial increase in production and revenue in the second half of 2025 with the Triton FPSO back online. The interim dividend was declared at a level consistent with the 2024 final dividend. Serica's portfolio is set for significant cash generation, with an estimated $300 million in deferred revenue potential due to Triton's issues. Capital expenditures for 2025 are projected at around $0.25 billion, with a focus on the Belinda project and the successful Triton drilling campaign, which came in $31 million under budget. The company continues to evaluate M&A opportunities in the North Sea and beyond, while also planning for future drilling at Bruce and new developments like Kyle.

Serica Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Serica Energy has a strong balance sheet with zero debt and a healthy equity ratio, indicating low financial risk. However, inconsistent revenue growth and declining profit margins weaken its income statement. The cash flow also shows inconsistency, highlighting a need for enhanced free cash flow to support investments.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Serica Energy shows a mixed performance in the income statement. The gross profit margin is healthy, but there is a noticeable decline in net profit and EBIT margins compared to previous years. Revenue growth is inconsistent, with a notable decrease from 2022 to 2023. The company needs to stabilize its revenue and profit margins for improved financial health.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
The balance sheet is strong with a satisfactory equity ratio and zero debt in recent years, indicating low financial risk. However, the return on equity has decreased from previous levels, which could signal inefficiencies in generating profits from equity. Overall, the company maintains a stable financial position with minimal leverage.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash flow performance is moderate, with some inconsistencies in free cash flow growth. The operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests efficient cash generation from operations, yet the free cash flow to net income ratio has been fluctuating. The company should focus on enhancing its free cash flow to support future investments.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue657.44M727.18M632.64M998.52M514.14M125.64M
Gross Profit290.19M223.20M306.57M730.40M386.82M-2.92M
EBITDA389.90M380.03M432.17M695.66M172.68M51.55M
Net Income-7.19M92.43M102.98M218.52M79.29M7.78M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.26B1.46B1.58B862.38M686.67M447.46M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments286.50M117.46M245.19M414.43M80.08M89.33M
Total Debt173.14M224.32M213.03M0.000.00516.00K
Total Liabilities602.79M668.29M741.92M453.66M414.14M247.62M
Stockholders Equity658.08M796.46M655.26M408.72M272.53M199.85M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-3.20M21.39M23.67M569.11M105.44M17.43M
Operating Cash Flow150.53M281.56M98.01M688.45M157.60M44.07M
Investing Cash Flow-141.73M-253.91M-108.77M-229.19M-134.35M-47.94M
Financing Cash Flow-167.16M-213.28M-154.37M-56.08M-9.25M-7.99M

Serica Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price165.00
Price Trends
50DMA
161.67
Positive
100DMA
143.52
Positive
200DMA
135.78
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.27
Positive
RSI
50.68
Neutral
STOCH
36.87
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:SQZ, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 165 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 166.40, above the 50-day MA of 161.67, and above the 200-day MA of 135.78, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:SQZ.

Serica Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
70
Outperform
£237.45M3.3418.48%3.48%-21.23%
67
Neutral
£648.49M8.79-4.31%11.52%-32.89%-239.58%
66
Neutral
$15.04B9.287.36%5.56%3.96%-72.38%
64
Neutral
£365.44M66.041.32%7.17%18.76%
63
Neutral
£848.05M-16.60%7.65%-11.09%-110.76%
47
Neutral
£305.36M-4.37%-100.00%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:SQZ
Serica Energy
165.00
52.57
46.76%
GB:PANR
Pantheon Resources
24.65
6.75
37.71%
GB:ENQ
Enquest
12.94
0.26
2.05%
GB:DEC
Diversified Energy Company
1,095.00
110.05
11.17%
GB:GKP
Gulf Keystone Petroleum
168.40
53.94
47.13%

Serica Energy Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsDividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Serica Energy Reports Resilient H1 2025 Performance and Future Growth Plans
Positive
Aug 5, 2025

Serica Energy reported a resilient financial performance for the first half of 2025, despite challenges such as the downtime at the Triton FPSO. The company is optimistic about increasing production levels to around 50,000 boepd with new wells coming onstream and optimization work at the Bruce Hub. The company is also advancing future production opportunities, including the Belinda field, and plans to replicate the success of its recent drilling campaign. Serica’s robust cash position supports its strategy of funding organic growth and maintaining dividends, while also exploring M&A opportunities in the UK North Sea.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:SQZ) stock is a Buy with a £185.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Serica Energy stock, see the GB:SQZ Stock Forecast page.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Serica Energy Faces Delays in Triton FPSO Production Ramp-Up
Neutral
Jul 30, 2025

Serica Energy has announced a slower-than-expected ramp-up to steady-state production at the Triton FPSO, following its restart in July. The delay is attributed to issues with the gas lift system and additional minor repairs, but production is expected to stabilize in August. The company anticipates production from the Bittern, Evelyn, and Gannet fields, with new wells in the Guillemot North West and Evelyn fields expected to increase output. Despite the delay, Serica maintains robust production from other assets and expects to achieve a potential output of over 55,000 boepd once all Triton fields are operational. The company’s 2025 production guidance has been slightly adjusted to 33,000-35,000 boepd.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:SQZ) stock is a Buy with a £185.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Serica Energy stock, see the GB:SQZ Stock Forecast page.

Other
Serica Energy CFO Increases Stake with Share Purchase
Positive
Jul 3, 2025

Serica Energy plc announced that its Chief Financial Officer, Martin Copeland, has purchased 45,000 ordinary shares at a price of GBP£1.614 per share, increasing his total shareholding to 107,500 shares. This transaction reflects confidence in the company’s future prospects and may positively influence investor sentiment, reinforcing the company’s market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:SQZ) stock is a Buy with a £185.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Serica Energy stock, see the GB:SQZ Stock Forecast page.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Serica Energy Resumes Production at Triton FPSO Post-Maintenance
Positive
Jun 30, 2025

Serica Energy has announced the resumption of production operations at the Triton FPSO following the completion of repairs and scheduled maintenance. The company expects production to ramp up and stabilize in July, with potential increases from two new wells. The maintenance included significant repairs and upgrades, which are anticipated to enhance the operational performance of the Triton FPSO, with no further planned outages for 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:SQZ) stock is a Buy with a £185.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Serica Energy stock, see the GB:SQZ Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Serica Energy Transfers Treasury Shares to Employee Benefit Trust
Neutral
Jun 6, 2025

Serica Energy plc announced the transfer of 541,985 Ordinary Shares from Treasury to its Employee Benefit Trust to satisfy Legacy LTIP and SIP Awards. This transaction results in the company no longer holding any Ordinary Shares in Treasury, with a total of 393,568,408 Ordinary Shares now in issue, which defines the voting rights for shareholders and others with notification obligations under the Financial Conduct Authority’s rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:SQZ) stock is a Buy with a £232.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Serica Energy stock, see the GB:SQZ Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Serica Energy Announces Long Term Incentive Plan Awards
Positive
May 28, 2025

Serica Energy plc announced the granting of nil-cost options over 1,703,189 ordinary shares under its 2017 Long Term Incentive Plan. These awards, aimed at incentivizing the executive team and senior management, are contingent on performance criteria related to total shareholder return and emissions reduction targets. This move is designed to align management’s interests with those of shareholders and enhance the company’s operational and environmental performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:SQZ) stock is a Buy with a £185.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Serica Energy stock, see the GB:SQZ Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Serica Energy Announces Successful AGM Results and Board Changes
Positive
May 22, 2025

Serica Energy PLC announced that all resolutions proposed at its Annual General Meeting were passed by shareholders. The voting results indicate strong support for the company’s management and strategic direction, with most resolutions receiving over 98% approval. Additionally, Jérôme Schmitt retired from the Board, marking a change in the company’s leadership structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:SQZ) stock is a Buy with a £185.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Serica Energy stock, see the GB:SQZ Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Serica Energy Boosts Production and Strategic Flexibility with Key Developments
Positive
May 22, 2025

Serica Energy has announced a positive trading and operations update, highlighting the successful maintenance and drilling activities at the Triton Hub, which are expected to significantly boost production and cash generation in the latter half of the year. The company also completed the acquisition of Parkmead (E&P) Limited, enhancing its tax position and strategic flexibility, while maintaining a disciplined approach to M&A and shareholder returns amidst a challenging regulatory environment.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:SQZ) stock is a Buy with a £185.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Serica Energy stock, see the GB:SQZ Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Serica Energy Announces Operational Success and Strategic Acquisition
Positive
May 22, 2025

Serica Energy has announced significant operational updates, including the completion of maintenance work at Triton, which is expected to resume production by the end of June. The company has also reported impressive drilling results from new wells, which are expected to boost production and cash generation. Additionally, Serica has completed the acquisition of Parkmead (E&P) Limited, enhancing its strategic flexibility and tax position. The company remains focused on converting resources to reserves and is preparing for a potential move to the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:SQZ) stock is a Buy with a £185.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Serica Energy stock, see the GB:SQZ Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 07, 2025