Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GB:GKP)
LSE:GKP
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Gulf Keystone Petroleum
(LSE:GKP)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
192.00 p
â–²(4.01% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/18/26
The score is supported primarily by balance-sheet strength and low leverage, which buffer cyclical volatility. It is held back by weak technical momentum (price below key short-term averages with negative MACD) and a relatively high P/E, with cash-flow variability (notably the 2025 free-cash-flow decline) adding risk.
Positive Factors
Very low leverage and strong balance sheet
Extremely low debt and a large equity base provide durable financial flexibility. This solvency buffer helps Gulf Keystone absorb commodity shocks, fund necessary capex for Shaikan development, and maintain operations during price troughs without forcing distress financing or asset sales.
Negative Factors
Earnings and profitability volatility
Profitability swings driven by commodity prices create inherent uncertainty in long-term earnings power. Such volatility complicates capital planning, reduces predictability for reinvestment and distributions, and raises the risk profile for lenders and equity investors over multi-quarter cycles.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Very low leverage and strong balance sheet
Extremely low debt and a large equity base provide durable financial flexibility. This solvency buffer helps Gulf Keystone absorb commodity shocks, fund necessary capex for Shaikan development, and maintain operations during price troughs without forcing distress financing or asset sales.
Read all positive factors
Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£415.94M
Dividend Yield8.66%
Average Volume (3M)1.14M
Price to Earnings (P/E)33.4
Beta (1Y)0.97
Revenue Growth5.77%
EPS Growth100.39%
CountryUK
Employees411
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.02
Shares Outstanding217,543,370
10 Day Avg. Volume803,058
30 Day Avg. Volume1,140,851
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.25
Price to Book (P/B)1.08
Price to Sales (P/S)3.07
P/FCF Ratio17.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£280.00Price Target Upside51.68% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.44
Revenue Forecast (FY)£225.43M
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited engages in the exploration, evaluation, and production of oil and gas properties in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and the United Kingdom. The company operates Shaikan field that covers an area of 280 square kilometer...
How the Company Makes Money
GKP primarily makes money by producing crude oil from the Shaikan field and selling that crude into export markets. Revenue is generated from the sale of produced barrels (typically priced using an oil benchmark and adjusted for realized different...
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 28, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a mix of positive and challenging aspects. There were notable improvements in production, revenue, and dividend payouts, alongside strategic investments in infrastructure. However, these were countered by operational disruptions due to geopolitical tensions and security issues, as well as uncertainty surrounding export operations.Positive Updates
Increased Production and Revenue
Gross average production increased by 12% in the first half of 2025 to 44,100 barrels of oil per day compared to the first half of 2024. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 13% to $41 million, driven by increased production and higher average realized prices.
Negative Updates
Security and Operational Disruptions
Production was temporarily shut down in mid-July due to drone attacks on neighboring oil fields, affecting gross average production guidance.
Read all updates
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Increased Production and Revenue
Gross average production increased by 12% in the first half of 2025 to 44,100 barrels of oil per day compared to the first half of 2024. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 13% to $41 million, driven by increased production and higher average realized prices.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the call, detailed guidance for the fiscal year 2025 was provided, including a tightened gross average production target of between 40,000 to 42,000 barrels of oil per day, reflecting disruptions from June to August. The company emphasized capital and cost discipline, projecting net CapEx for 2025 to be between $30 million and $35 million, slightly increased from previous guidance due to the water handling project. Operating expenses (OpEx) and general and administrative (G&A) expenses are expected to remain between $50 million and $55 million and under $10 million, respectively. The company declared a $25 million interim dividend to be paid on September 30, bringing total dividends for the year to $50 million. Additionally, the first half of 2025 saw a 13% increase in adjusted EBITDA to $41 million, driven by a 12% rise in gross average production and an average realized price of $27.80 per barrel. The company's strategic focus includes maintaining a robust cash balance, with cash and liquidity improving to $106 million as of the end of June. Discussions with government stakeholders for the restart of Kurdistan exports were also highlighted as a key area of focus.Gulf Keystone Petroleum Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 168.27M | 151.21M | 123.51M | 460.11M | 301.39M |
| Gross Profit | 20.30M | 20.53M | 8.18M | 299.50M | 189.67M |
| EBITDA | 96.35M | 88.27M | 32.43M | 355.17M | 230.21M |
| Net Income | 15.45M | 7.16M | -11.50M | 266.09M | 164.60M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 646.34M | 667.68M | 697.15M | 744.36M | 764.26M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 78.26M | 102.35M | 81.71M | 119.46M | 169.87M |
| Total Debt | 1.35M | 1.51M | 398.00K | 710.00K | 100.33M |
| Total Liabilities | 167.14M | 155.35M | 149.91M | 171.43M | 242.55M |
| Stockholders Equity | 479.20M | 512.33M | 547.24M | 572.92M | 521.70M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 30.41M | 65.94M | -14.06M | 266.94M | 122.85M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 64.42M | 93.54M | 51.32M | 374.30M | 178.53M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -34.27M | -27.60M | -63.94M | -107.36M | -55.68M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -55.44M | -45.47M | -25.32M | -317.25M | -100.69M |
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Technical Analysis
Negative
184.60
Price Trends
196.90
Negative
184.65
Negative
178.88
Positive
Market Momentum
-2.45
Positive
37.20
Neutral
12.66
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:GKP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 184.6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 200.80, below the 50-day MA of 196.90, and above the 200-day MA of 178.88, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.45 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.66 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:GKP.
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | £207.48M | 1.81 | 5.30% | ― | -11.74% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
58 Neutral | £415.94M | 33.45 | 3.18% | 8.66% | 5.77% | 100.39% | |
56 Neutral | £170.81M | -1.99 | 57.02% | ― | -32.47% | -1490.91% | |
56 Neutral | £365.89M | 166.34 | 0.54% | 4.36% | -13.35% | -104.39% | |
53 Neutral | £713.29M | -2.65 | -19.93% | ― | ― | ― | |
50 Neutral | £141.52M | -24.27 | -11.54% | ― | -10.76% | 88.89% |
* Energy Sector Average
GB:GKP
Gulf Keystone Petroleum
192.80
49.07
34.14%
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52.80
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-3.83%
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GB:TLW
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0.62%
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Gulf Keystone grants new long-term incentive awards tied to shareholder returns
Positive
Apr 8, 2026
Gulf Keystone Petroleum has granted new awards under its 2024 Long Term Incentive Plan, issuing nil-cost share options dated 1 April 2026 to senior executives and eligible staff, including employees in Kurdistan. The awards, based on a reference s...
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing Changes
Gulf Keystone Enables Cross-Border Transfers Between London and Oslo Listings
Positive
Apr 2, 2026
Gulf Keystone Petroleum has activated cross border share transfers between its listings on the London Stock Exchange and Euronext Growth Oslo, allowing shareholders to move holdings between the two markets via their CREST or Norwegian VPS custodia...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Gulf Keystone details $250m in 2025 payments to Kurdistan authorities
Neutral
Apr 2, 2026
Gulf Keystone Petroleum has published its 2025 report on payments to governments, detailing transfers made under UK transparency rules for extractive industries. All reported payments relate to its Shaikan operations in the Kurdistan Region of Ira...
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Gulf Keystone Files 2025 Annual and Sustainability Reports in Line with Disclosure Rules
Positive
Apr 2, 2026
Gulf Keystone Petroleum has published its Annual Report and Accounts for the year ended 31 December 2025, which is now available on the company’s website alongside its 2025 Sustainability Report and key sustainability metrics. The report has...
Executive/Board Changes
Gulf Keystone Executives Exercise Share Awards and Receive New Deferred Bonuses
Neutral
Apr 1, 2026
Gulf Keystone Petroleum has reported a series of share transactions by senior executives linked to the vesting and exercise of awards under its 2014 Long Term Incentive Plan and Deferred Bonus Plan. Chief executive Jon Harris and chief financial o...
Other
Gulf Keystone Executives Adjust Holdings in Modest Share Transactions
Neutral
Mar 24, 2026
Gulf Keystone Petroleum reported share transactions by senior management and a closely associated person on the London Stock Exchange. Chief HR Officer Clare Kinahan sold 50,000 shares on 23 March 2026, reducing her holding to 7,595 shares.Chief L...
Financial Disclosures
Gulf Keystone Sets Date for 2025 Full-Year Results and Investor Webcast
Neutral
Mar 17, 2026
Gulf Keystone Petroleum has scheduled the release of its full-year 2025 results for 19 March 2026, with management set to host a live audio webcast presentation for analysts and investors later that morning. The company is encouraging active engag...
Business Operations and Strategy
Gulf Keystone Halts Shaikan Production Amid Regional Security Tensions
Negative
Mar 2, 2026
Gulf Keystone Petroleum has temporarily shut in production at the Shaikan Field in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and implemented measures to protect staff amid a deteriorating regional security environment. While the company reports that its physic...
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing Changes
Gulf Keystone Publishes Document for Euronext Growth Oslo Listing
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
Gulf Keystone Petroleum has published an information document in connection with the planned admission of its shares to trading on Euronext Growth Oslo. The document, prepared solely for this listing purpose, has been made available via the Oslo B...
Delistings and Listing ChangesPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Gulf Keystone Registers New Share Capital and Secures Oslo Listing Approval
Positive
Feb 16, 2026
Gulf Keystone Petroleum has completed a retail offering of 538,087 new shares, raising gross proceeds equivalent to EUR 1 million, with the capital increase now registered and the new shares ranking pari passu with its existing equity. Following t...
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesPrivate Placements and Financing
Gulf Keystone completes oversubscribed retail offer ahead of Oslo dual listing
Positive
Feb 13, 2026
Gulf Keystone Petroleum has completed a NOK 11.3 million retail share offering, issuing 538,087 new shares, including underwriting commission, at a 10% discount to recent London trading levels to meet requirements for a dual listing. The oversubsc...
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesPrivate Placements and Financing
Gulf Keystone to Pursue Dual Listing in Oslo with Underwritten Nordic Retail Offer
Positive
Feb 4, 2026
Gulf Keystone Petroleum plans to complete a dual listing of its shares on Euronext Growth Oslo, alongside its existing London Stock Exchange quotation, as part of a strategy to boost liquidity, broaden its investor base and improve access to capit...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Gulf Keystone Targets Pivotal 2026 After Strong Year and Return to Kurdistan Exports
Positive
Jan 22, 2026
Gulf Keystone Petroleum reported a robust 2025 performance, with gross average production rising 2% to 41,560 barrels of oil per day, near the top of guidance, despite trucking and security disruptions in mid-year. The company successfully shifted...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.