Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) AI Stock Analysis

Compare

121 Followers

GB:GKP Dividends

Top Page

Gulf Keystone Petroleum

(LSE:GKP)

63Neutral

Gulf Keystone Petroleum's stock reflects a mix of strengths and challenges. Financial resilience is evident through revenue growth and strong cash flow, but profitability issues and historical volatility pose risks. Technically, the stock is under pressure with bearish indicators. Despite a high P/E ratio, the significant dividend yield offers some investment appeal. The positive earnings call adds optimism, although operational challenges persist.

Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

£332.45M

Dividend Yield8.13%

Average Volume (3M)721.03K

Price to Earnings (P/E)60.4

Beta (1Y)1.57

Revenue Growth18.76%

EPS GrowthN/A

CountryUK

Employees411

SectorEnergy

Sector Strength49

IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.02

Shares Outstanding217,005,280

10 Day Avg. Volume566,370

30 Day Avg. Volume721,027

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)0.00

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.76

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit30.86

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

£225.00

Price Target Upside45.35% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering1

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company focused primarily on the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. The company's core operations involve the development and management of its primary asset, the Shaikan oil field, which is one of the largest onshore fields in the region. GKP's activities are centered around the exploration, appraisal, development, and production of crude oil, striving to maximize the value of its assets through efficient and sustainable practices.

How the Company Makes MoneyGulf Keystone Petroleum makes money primarily through the exploration, extraction, and sale of crude oil from its flagship Shaikan oil field. The company's revenue model is based on the production and sale of oil, which is marketed and sold to international buyers. Key revenue streams include the sale of crude oil under long-term contracts and spot sales, depending on market conditions. Significant factors contributing to its earnings include the production volume, global oil prices, and the efficiency of its operations in extracting and delivering oil to market. GKP's financial performance is also influenced by its partnerships with local and international stakeholders, including the Kurdistan Regional Government, which impact the company's operational and fiscal environment.

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income Statement

Balance Sheet

Cash Flow

Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020	Dec 2019
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
123.51M	460.11M	301.39M	108.45M	206.74M
	Gross Profit
8.18M	299.50M	189.67M	-13.06M	68.56M
	EBIT
-13.04M	273.54M	174.60M	-28.83M	49.03M
	EBITDA
32.43M	355.17M	230.21M	48.93M	128.24M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-11.50M	266.09M	164.60M	-47.34M	43.53M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
81.71M	119.46M	169.87M	147.83M	190.76M
	Total Assets
697.15M	744.36M	764.26M	658.51M	733.89M
	Total Debt
398.00K	710.00K	100.33M	104.77M	101.45M
	Net Debt
-81.31M	-118.75M	-69.53M	-43.06M	-89.32M
	Total Liabilities
149.91M	171.43M	242.55M	204.49M	213.97M
	Stockholders Equity
547.24M	572.92M	521.70M	454.02M	519.92M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-14.06M	266.94M	122.85M	-21.58M	-13.60M
	Operating Cash Flow
51.32M	374.30M	178.53M	36.78M	83.72M
	Investing Cash Flow
-63.94M	-107.36M	-55.68M	-58.36M	-108.38M
	Financing Cash Flow
-25.32M	-317.25M	-100.69M	-21.48M	-79.95M

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price154.80

Price Trends

50DMA

169.93

Negative

100DMA

162.81

Negative

200DMA

141.02

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

-4.65

Negative

RSI

43.54

Neutral

STOCH

32.41

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:GKP, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 154.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 153.54, below the 50-day MA of 169.93, and above the 200-day MA of 141.02, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -4.65 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.41 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GB:GKP.

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (56)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ENQ	65 Neutral	£236.35M	3.33	18.48%	―	-21.23%	―
GKP	63 Neutral	£332.45M	60.39	1.32%	8.13%	18.76%	―
TLW	61 Neutral	£195.76M	4.31		―	-11.70%	―
Sector *	56 Neutral	$6.99B	3.67	-4.87%	5.88%	0.18%	-49.70%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

GB:GKP

Gulf Keystone Petroleum

154.80

50.69

48.69%

GB:TLW

Tullow Oil

13.54

-23.78

-63.72%

GB:ENQ

Enquest

11.96

-3.49

-22.59%

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 20, 2025

(Q4-2024)

% Change Since: -18.55%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 28, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call reflects a positive operational and financial performance for 2024, with significant improvements in production and financial metrics. Shareholder returns were resumed, and cost control measures were effective. However, challenges remain regarding the restart of pipeline exports and achieving higher realized prices. The company's outlook for 2025 is optimistic, with continued production guidance and cost management.

Q4-2024 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Operational Performance

In 2024, Gulf Keystone returned to consistently strong production levels with volumes almost doubling, supported by a full year of local sales. They achieved this with zero lost time incidents and have been operating almost 800 days without a lost time injury.

Financial Improvements

Adjusted EBITDA increased by 52% to $76 million in 2024, driven by an 86% increase in gross average production. Free cash flow generation was strengthened, resulting in a $65 million inflow, compared to a $13 million outflow in the previous year.

Shareholder Returns

Shareholder distributions resumed with $45 million distributed in 2024, including a $25 million interim dividend in April 2025. The total shareholder return was 24% for 2024.

Low Operating Costs

Gross OpEx per barrel decreased by 21% to $4.4 per barrel, maintaining Gulf Keystone's position as a leading low-cost operator among peers.

Positive Outlook for 2025

For 2025, the company reiterates guidance for average production of 40,000 to 45,000 barrels of oil per day, with stable local sales demand and ongoing cost control.

Negative Updates

Challenges in Export Restart

Discussions with the Kurdistan Regional Government and the Federal Government of Iraq regarding the restart of pipeline exports remain inconclusive, and the company is still seeking agreements on payment surety, receivables repayment, and contract terms.

Reduced Realized Prices

Realized prices averaged around $27 per barrel in 2024, reflecting the transition to discounted local sales and the absence of international pricing.

Operational Disruptions

Production was temporarily disrupted by a lack of trucks during regional holidays and politically motivated road closures related to regional elections in Kurdistan.

Company Guidance

In the 2024 call, Gulf Keystone reported a robust operational and financial performance, with gross average production reaching 40,689 barrels of oil per day and a peak of 48,500 barrels in September. The company successfully generated $65 million in free cash flow, driven by a 52% increase in adjusted EBITDA to $76 million and a 69% reduction in net capital expenditure to $18 million. Shareholder distributions resumed with a total of $45 million, including a $25 million interim dividend. The company maintained a cash balance of $115 million as of the call date. Looking forward to 2025, Gulf Keystone reiterated its production guidance of 40,000 to 45,000 barrels per day, contingent upon stable local market demand, and outlined plans for $25 million to $30 million in net CapEx focused on maintenance and production optimization. The company also engaged in ongoing discussions with the Kurdistan and Iraqi governments about restarting pipeline exports, which could significantly enhance cash flow and shareholder value.

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Announces 2025 LTIP Awards

Neutral

Apr 4, 2025

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. has announced the granting of awards under its 2024 Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP) to employees and key management personnel. The awards, based on the company’s stock price as of March 31, 2025, are designed to vest over three years, contingent upon meeting specific performance conditions related to total shareholder return. This initiative aims to align the interests of the management and employees with those of the shareholders, potentially impacting the company’s operational focus and stakeholder engagement.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance

Gulf Keystone Petroleum’s 2024 Government Payments Report Highlights Transparency and Community Support

Positive

Apr 2, 2025

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. has released its report on payments to governments for the year 2024, detailing the financial transactions made to the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) under the Shaikan Production Sharing Contract. The report highlights that the company made significant in-kind payments, including production entitlements and royalties, amounting to a total of $175,080,000. These payments reflect the company’s ongoing commitment to transparency and compliance with UK regulations. Additionally, Gulf Keystone has contributed to local community support initiatives, enhancing its operational impact and stakeholder relations in the region.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Issues Deferred Bonus Plan Awards

Neutral

Apr 1, 2025

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. announced the issuance of awards under its Deferred Bonus Plan (DBP) for executive directors, with 30% of their annual bonus being paid in the form of nil cost options. These options will vest after three years, provided the executives remain employed with the company. The CEO, Jon Harris, received 67,810 awards, and the CFO, Gabriel Papineau-Legris, received 21,801 awards. This move aligns with the company’s strategy to retain top management and ensure long-term commitment.

Dividends

Gulf Keystone Announces $25 Million Interim Dividend with Currency Options

Positive

Mar 24, 2025

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. has announced a $25 million interim dividend, scheduled to be paid on 23 April 2025. Shareholders can elect their preferred currency for the dividend payment by 7 April 2025, with the default being GBP. This announcement underscores Gulf Keystone’s financial stability and commitment to returning value to its shareholders.

DividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Gulf Keystone Reports Strong 2024 Results and Declares $25 Million Dividend

Positive

Mar 20, 2025

Gulf Keystone Petroleum announced strong operational and financial results for 2024, with a significant increase in production and financial performance. The company declared a $25 million interim dividend and reiterated its 2025 guidance, highlighting continued strong local market demand and disciplined expenditure. Despite challenges such as the suspension of pipeline exports, Gulf Keystone maintained robust cash flow and shareholder distributions, while actively engaging with government stakeholders to resume oil exports.

Financial Disclosures

Gulf Keystone Petroleum to Announce 2024 Full-Year Results

Neutral

Feb 27, 2025

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. has announced that it will release its full-year results for 2024 on March 20, 2025. The company will host presentations for analysts and investors via live audio webcast, with recordings available on its website. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s performance and future prospects.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.