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Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GB:GKP)
LSE:GKP
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Gulf Keystone Petroleum
(LSE:GKP)
Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
2.00p
▼(-98.79%Downside)
Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£384.10M
Dividend Yield8.02%
Average Volume (3M)761.42K
Price to Earnings (P/E)64.9
Beta (1Y)1.56
Revenue Growth18.76%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUK
Employees411
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength57
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.02
Shares Outstanding217,005,280
10 Day Avg. Volume1,062,902
30 Day Avg. Volume761,421
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.32
Price to Book (P/B)1.22
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-46.84
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.43
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.82
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit26.67
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.53
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£189.50Price Target Upside14.57% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGulf Keystone Petroleum Limited engages in the exploration, evaluation, and production of oil and gas properties in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and the United Kingdom. The company operates Shaikan field that covers an area of 280 square kilometers, which is located north-west of Erbil. It also provides management, support, geological, geophysical, and engineering services. The company was incorporated in 2001 and is based in Hamilton, Bermuda.
How the Company Makes MoneyGulf Keystone Petroleum makes money primarily through the extraction and sale of crude oil from its Shaikan field in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. The company's revenue model is based on producing and selling oil under production sharing contracts (PSCs) with the Kurdistan Regional Government, which dictate how profits are split. The key revenue streams include the sale of produced oil to international markets and local refineries, with prices generally linked to global oil benchmarks. Additionally, GKP benefits from strategic partnerships with governmental and industry stakeholders that help facilitate operations in a challenging geopolitical environment. The company's earnings are significantly influenced by oil prices, production levels, and operational efficiency.
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 20, 2025
(Q4-2024)
| % Change Since: -12.97%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 28, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a positive operational and financial performance for 2024, with significant improvements in production and financial metrics. Shareholder returns were resumed, and cost control measures were effective. However, challenges remain regarding the restart of pipeline exports and achieving higher realized prices. The company's outlook for 2025 is optimistic, with continued production guidance and cost management.Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Operational Performance
In 2024, Gulf Keystone returned to consistently strong production levels with volumes almost doubling, supported by a full year of local sales. They achieved this with zero lost time incidents and have been operating almost 800 days without a lost time injury.
Financial Improvements
Adjusted EBITDA increased by 52% to $76 million in 2024, driven by an 86% increase in gross average production. Free cash flow generation was strengthened, resulting in a $65 million inflow, compared to a $13 million outflow in the previous year.
Shareholder Returns
Shareholder distributions resumed with $45 million distributed in 2024, including a $25 million interim dividend in April 2025. The total shareholder return was 24% for 2024.
Low Operating Costs
Gross OpEx per barrel decreased by 21% to $4.4 per barrel, maintaining Gulf Keystone's position as a leading low-cost operator among peers.
Positive Outlook for 2025
For 2025, the company reiterates guidance for average production of 40,000 to 45,000 barrels of oil per day, with stable local sales demand and ongoing cost control.
Negative Updates
Challenges in Export Restart
Discussions with the Kurdistan Regional Government and the Federal Government of Iraq regarding the restart of pipeline exports remain inconclusive, and the company is still seeking agreements on payment surety, receivables repayment, and contract terms.
Reduced Realized Prices
Realized prices averaged around $27 per barrel in 2024, reflecting the transition to discounted local sales and the absence of international pricing.
Operational Disruptions
Production was temporarily disrupted by a lack of trucks during regional holidays and politically motivated road closures related to regional elections in Kurdistan.
Company Guidance
In the 2024 call, Gulf Keystone reported a robust operational and financial performance, with gross average production reaching 40,689 barrels of oil per day and a peak of 48,500 barrels in September. The company successfully generated $65 million in free cash flow, driven by a 52% increase in adjusted EBITDA to $76 million and a 69% reduction in net capital expenditure to $18 million. Shareholder distributions resumed with a total of $45 million, including a $25 million interim dividend. The company maintained a cash balance of $115 million as of the call date. Looking forward to 2025, Gulf Keystone reiterated its production guidance of 40,000 to 45,000 barrels per day, contingent upon stable local market demand, and outlined plans for $25 million to $30 million in net CapEx focused on maintenance and production optimization. The company also engaged in ongoing discussions with the Kurdistan and Iraqi governments about restarting pipeline exports, which could significantly enhance cash flow and shareholder value.Gulf Keystone Petroleum Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Gulf Keystone Petroleum shows strong revenue growth and cash flow stability with low debt levels. However, profitability remains a challenge due to a low net profit margin and historical volatility in financial performance.Income Statement
Gulf Keystone Petroleum displayed a significant revenue growth of 22.4% from 2023 to 2024, alongside improvements in EBIT and EBITDA margins. However, the net profit margin remains low at 4.7%, indicating challenges in converting revenue to profit. Historical volatility in revenue and profitability is a concern, although recent trends suggest recovery.62
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company has a strong equity base with an equity ratio of 76.7% in 2024, indicating financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is minimal, reflecting low leverage. The return on equity at 1.4% is modest, highlighting room for improvement in generating returns for shareholders.75
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow from operations increased significantly, with a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 13.1 in 2024. The free cash flow growth rate improved remarkably compared to previous years, indicating better cash management. However, historical fluctuations in free cash flow warrant caution.80
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 151.21M | 123.51M | 460.11M | 301.39M | 108.45M |
| Gross Profit | 20.53M | 8.18M | 299.50M | 196.73M | -19.83M |
| EBITDA | 88.27M | 32.43M | 355.17M | 230.21M | 48.93M |
| Net Income | 7.16M | -11.50M | 266.09M | 164.60M | -47.34M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 667.68M | 697.15M | 744.36M | 764.26M | 658.51M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 102.35M | 81.71M | 119.46M | 169.87M | 147.83M |
| Total Debt | 1.51M | 398.00K | 710.00K | 100.33M | 104.77M |
| Total Liabilities | 155.35M | 149.91M | 171.43M | 242.55M | 204.49M |
| Stockholders Equity | 512.33M | 547.24M | 572.92M | 521.70M | 454.02M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 65.94M | -14.06M | 266.94M | 122.85M | -21.58M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 93.54M | 51.32M | 374.30M | 178.53M | 36.78M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -27.60M | -63.94M | -107.36M | -55.68M | -58.36M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -45.47M | -25.32M | -317.25M | -100.69M | -21.48M |
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Technical Analysis
Neutral
165.40
Price Trends
159.36
Positive
166.45
Negative
151.65
Positive
Market Momentum
4.79
Negative
49.72
Neutral
56.21
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:GKP, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 165.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 165.27, above the 50-day MA of 159.36, and above the 200-day MA of 151.65, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.79 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.21 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GB:GKP.
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | £233.36M | 5.16 | ― | -11.70% | ― | ||
68 Neutral | $15.33B | 10.06 | 6.34% | 5.18% | 4.06% | -67.04% | |
66 Neutral | £384.10M | 64.86 | 1.32% | 8.02% | 18.76% | ― | |
| $239.69M | ― | -15.72% | ― | ― | ― | ||
56 Neutral | £157.18M | 17.20 | -3.25% | ― | -28.38% | 90.60% | |
47 Neutral | £247.46M | ― | -4.37% | ― | -100.00% | ― | |
| £383.26M | 32.54 | 6.97% | ― | ― | ― |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
GB:GKP
Gulf Keystone Petroleum
165.80
38.36
30.10%
GEGYF
Genel Energy
0.85
-0.35
-29.17%
GB:CNE
Capricorn Energy PLC
230.00
43.00
22.99%
GB:PANR
Pantheon Resources
22.65
1.75
8.37%
GB:RKH
Rockhopper Exploration
61.80
46.80
312.00%
GB:TLW
Tullow Oil
15.94
-15.98
-50.06%
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Secures Shareholder Approval at 2025 AGM
Positive
Jun 20, 2025
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. announced that all resolutions proposed at its 2025 Annual General Meeting were approved by shareholders. This includes the reappointment of directors and the approval of the company’s remuneration policy, signaling strong shareholder support and stability in its governance structure.
The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GKP) stock is a Hold with a £1.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gulf Keystone Petroleum stock, see the GB:GKP Stock Forecast page.
Shareholder Meetings
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Announces Virtual 2025 AGM Details
Neutral
May 15, 2025
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. has announced the details of its 2025 Annual General Meeting (AGM), which will be held via webcast on June 20, 2025. The company has published the Notice of Meeting and related documents, encouraging shareholders to vote in advance and appoint the Chairman as their proxy. This virtual AGM format allows all shareholders to participate and engage with the company’s strategic direction and governance.
The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GKP) stock is a Buy with a £190.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gulf Keystone Petroleum stock, see the GB:GKP Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.