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Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GB:GKP)
LSE:GKP
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Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) AI Stock Analysis

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GB:GKP

Gulf Keystone Petroleum

(LSE:GKP)

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Neutral 62 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
186.00p
▲(6.77% Upside)
Gulf Keystone Petroleum's overall stock score reflects a mix of strengths and challenges. The company's financial stability and cash flow improvements are positive, but profitability issues and technical bearish signals weigh on the score. The earnings call provided some optimism with production and revenue growth, yet geopolitical risks and export uncertainties remain significant concerns.

Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGulf Keystone Petroleum Limited engages in the exploration, evaluation, and production of oil and gas properties in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and the United Kingdom. The company operates Shaikan field that covers an area of 280 square kilometers, which is located north-west of Erbil. It also provides management, support, geological, geophysical, and engineering services. The company was incorporated in 2001 and is based in Hamilton, Bermuda.
How the Company Makes MoneyGulf Keystone Petroleum generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil produced from its Shaikan oil field. The company's revenue model is driven by the production and export of oil, with sales typically made under long-term contracts or spot market agreements. Key revenue streams include the sale of oil to local refineries and international markets, with pricing influenced by global oil prices and production levels. Additionally, GKP benefits from significant partnerships with local and international oil companies, which help enhance operational capabilities and provide access to additional markets. The company's ability to manage production costs effectively and optimize its operations also contributes to its profitability.

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 28, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 01, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a mix of positive and challenging aspects. There were notable improvements in production, revenue, and dividend payouts, alongside strategic investments in infrastructure. However, these were countered by operational disruptions due to geopolitical tensions and security issues, as well as uncertainty surrounding export operations.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Increased Production and Revenue
Gross average production increased by 12% in the first half of 2025 to 44,100 barrels of oil per day compared to the first half of 2024. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 13% to $41 million, driven by increased production and higher average realized prices.
Dividend Announcement
Declared an additional $25 million interim dividend to be paid on September 30, bringing total dividends paid and declared in 2025 to $50 million.
Safety and Operational Milestones
Extended track record of zero lost time incidents to over 950 days and resumed production following temporary shut-in due to security concerns.
Water Handling Facility Investment
Sanctioned the installation of water handling facilities at Production Facility 2, expected to unlock 4,000 to 8,000 barrels of oil per day of incremental production by 2027.
Negative Updates
Security and Operational Disruptions
Production was temporarily shut down in mid-July due to drone attacks on neighboring oil fields, affecting gross average production guidance.
Impact of Geopolitical Events
Sales were reduced in June due to trucking shortages around the Eid Al-Adha holiday and conflict between Israel and Iran.
Uncertain Export Restart
Continued uncertainty regarding the restart of exports through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, with ongoing negotiations needed for solution.
Company Guidance
During the call, detailed guidance for the fiscal year 2025 was provided, including a tightened gross average production target of between 40,000 to 42,000 barrels of oil per day, reflecting disruptions from June to August. The company emphasized capital and cost discipline, projecting net CapEx for 2025 to be between $30 million and $35 million, slightly increased from previous guidance due to the water handling project. Operating expenses (OpEx) and general and administrative (G&A) expenses are expected to remain between $50 million and $55 million and under $10 million, respectively. The company declared a $25 million interim dividend to be paid on September 30, bringing total dividends for the year to $50 million. Additionally, the first half of 2025 saw a 13% increase in adjusted EBITDA to $41 million, driven by a 12% rise in gross average production and an average realized price of $27.80 per barrel. The company's strategic focus includes maintaining a robust cash balance, with cash and liquidity improving to $106 million as of the end of June. Discussions with government stakeholders for the restart of Kurdistan exports were also highlighted as a key area of focus.

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Gulf Keystone Petroleum shows strong revenue growth and cash flow stability, with a solid equity base and low debt levels. However, profitability remains a challenge due to a low net profit margin and historical volatility in revenue and profitability.
Income Statement
62
Positive
Gulf Keystone Petroleum displayed a significant revenue growth of 22.4% from 2023 to 2024, alongside improvements in EBIT and EBITDA margins. However, the net profit margin remains low at 4.7%, indicating challenges in converting revenue to profit. Historical volatility in revenue and profitability is a concern, although recent trends suggest recovery.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The company has a strong equity base with an equity ratio of 76.7% in 2024, indicating financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is minimal, reflecting low leverage. The return on equity at 1.4% is modest, highlighting room for improvement in generating returns for shareholders.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Cash flow from operations increased significantly, with a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 13.1 in 2024. The free cash flow growth rate improved remarkably compared to previous years, indicating better cash management. However, historical fluctuations in free cash flow warrant caution.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue163.17M151.21M123.51M460.11M301.39M108.45M
Gross Profit29.62M20.53M8.18M299.50M189.67M-13.06M
EBITDA89.85M88.27M32.43M355.17M230.21M48.93M
Net Income-498.00K7.16M-11.50M266.09M164.60M-47.34M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets630.17M667.68M697.15M744.36M764.26M658.51M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments99.04M102.35M81.71M119.46M169.87M147.83M
Total Debt1.51M1.51M398.00K710.00K100.33M104.77M
Total Liabilities149.70M155.35M149.91M171.43M242.55M204.49M
Stockholders Equity480.48M512.33M547.24M572.92M521.70M454.02M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow64.03M65.94M-14.06M266.94M122.85M-21.58M
Operating Cash Flow89.04M93.54M51.32M374.30M178.53M36.78M
Investing Cash Flow-25.11M-27.60M-63.94M-107.36M-55.68M-58.36M
Financing Cash Flow-68.48M-45.47M-25.32M-317.25M-100.69M-21.48M

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price174.20
Price Trends
50DMA
186.93
Negative
100DMA
172.73
Positive
200DMA
165.61
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-4.68
Positive
RSI
35.41
Neutral
STOCH
13.88
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:GKP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 174.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 188.85, below the 50-day MA of 186.93, and above the 200-day MA of 165.61, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -4.68 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.88 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:GKP.

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
£378.02M-1,088.75-0.09%8.65%38.03%94.56%
£141.46M-8.59-6.29%-32.66%72.67%
$177.59M-4.22-11.54%-0.20%-25.68%
£373.86M-29.11-100.00%-84.62%
£146.50M-0.93-32.47%-1490.91%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:GKP
Gulf Keystone Petroleum
174.20
56.64
48.18%
GB:GENL
Genel Energy
64.80
-14.10
-17.87%
GB:CNE
Capricorn Energy PLC
202.50
-8.50
-4.03%
GB:PANR
Pantheon Resources
27.95
6.85
32.46%
GB:RKH
Rockhopper Exploration
77.00
64.05
494.59%
GB:TLW
Tullow Oil
10.00
-13.74
-57.88%

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Gulf Keystone Resumes Shaikan Field Exports
Positive
Sep 29, 2025

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. announced the restart of crude exports from the Shaikan Field via the Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline, with expectations to reach full capacity soon. This development is significant for the company’s operations as it aligns with their 2025 production guidance and enhances their market positioning in the region.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GKP) stock is a Buy with a £199.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gulf Keystone Petroleum stock, see the GB:GKP Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Gulf Keystone Resumes Kurdistan Crude Exports via Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline
Positive
Sep 26, 2025

Gulf Keystone Petroleum announced the restart of crude exports from Kurdistan via the Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline, following agreements with the Kurdistan Regional Government and the Federal Government of Iraq. This move is expected to enhance the company’s cash flow by returning to international sales prices and facilitate long-term investment in Kurdistan’s oil and gas reserves. The agreements comply with Iraq’s 2023-2025 Budget Law and ensure compensation for production costs during an interim period, with a reconciliation to full Production Sharing Contract entitlement anticipated thereafter.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GKP) stock is a Buy with a £199.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gulf Keystone Petroleum stock, see the GB:GKP Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
Gulf Keystone Announces Interim Dividend and Exchange Rate Details
Neutral
Sep 18, 2025

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. has announced an interim dividend of $25 million, equivalent to 11.52 US cents per Common Share, to be paid on 30 September 2025. Shareholders receiving dividends in GBP will receive 8.443 pence per Common Share, based on the exchange rate of $1:£0.7329 as of 17 September 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GKP) stock is a Buy with a £199.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gulf Keystone Petroleum stock, see the GB:GKP Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing Changes
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Eyes Dual Listing in Oslo
Neutral
Sep 9, 2025

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd is considering a potential dual listing of its shares on Euronext Growth Oslo to enhance share liquidity, attract new investors, and improve access to capital markets. The Oslo Stock Exchange is seen as a strategic choice due to its strong support for the oil and gas sector and Gulf Keystone’s existing reputation among Oslo investors. The company is preparing for this move, which includes engaging with market participants and potentially facilitating a secondary offering to boost trading liquidity. The decision remains subject to market conditions and strategic priorities.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GKP) stock is a Buy with a £199.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gulf Keystone Petroleum stock, see the GB:GKP Stock Forecast page.

Gulf Keystone’s Earnings Call: Balancing Growth and Challenges
Sep 1, 2025

The recent earnings call for Gulf Keystone Petroleum presented a balanced view of the company’s current standing, highlighting both positive developments and ongoing challenges. On the positive side, the company reported significant improvements in production, revenue, and dividend payouts, alongside strategic investments in infrastructure. However, these advancements were tempered by operational disruptions due to geopolitical tensions and security issues, as well as uncertainty surrounding export operations.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Gulf Keystone to Announce Half-Year Results and Resumes Shaikan Operations
Neutral
Aug 13, 2025

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. announced that it will release its half-year results for 2025 on 28 August, with a presentation for analysts and investors scheduled on the same day. The company has resumed production operations at the Shaikan Field after a security assessment and is in discussions with the Kurdistan Regional Government to restart pipeline exports, pending written agreements.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GKP) stock is a Buy with a £1.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gulf Keystone Petroleum stock, see the GB:GKP Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 23, 2025