Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £384.97M
• Dividend Yield: 8.46%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.14M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.74
• Revenue Growth: 38.03%
• EPS Growth: 94.56%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 411
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): -0.02
• Shares Outstanding: 217,005,280
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 803,058
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,140,851
• PEG Ratio: -0.37
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.81
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.76
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.32
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £257.00
• Price Target Upside: 44.22% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: 188.00p ▲(5.50% Upside)

Gulf Keystone Petroleum's overall score reflects strong financial stability and positive corporate developments, tempered by valuation concerns and operational challenges. The company's ability to sustain cash flow growth and navigate geopolitical risks will be crucial for future performance.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The company's strong revenue growth indicates effective market positioning and operational execution, enhancing its ability to invest in future projects and sustain long-term growth.

Cash Flow Stability

Improved cash flow stability enhances financial flexibility, allowing the company to manage investments and dividends effectively, supporting sustainable growth.

Production and Operational Efficiency

Increased production efficiency demonstrates operational strength and capacity to meet market demand, contributing to revenue growth and competitive positioning.

Negative Factors

Profitability Challenges

Low profitability margins suggest inefficiencies in cost management or pricing strategy, potentially impacting long-term financial health and shareholder returns.

Geopolitical Risks

Geopolitical instability in the region poses significant operational risks, potentially disrupting production and affecting revenue consistency.

Export Uncertainty

Uncertainty in export logistics can hinder revenue streams and market access, impacting the company's ability to capitalize on production increases.

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited engages in the exploration, evaluation, and production of oil and gas properties in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and the United Kingdom. The company operates Shaikan field that covers an area of 280 square kilometers, which is located north-west of Erbil. It also provides management, support, geological, geophysical, and engineering services. The company was incorporated in 2001 and is based in Hamilton, Bermuda.

How the Company Makes Money

Gulf Keystone Petroleum generates revenue primarily through the exploration, extraction, and sale of crude oil. The company benefits from its production activities at the Shaikan oil field, where it sells oil to various buyers, including local refineries and international markets. GKP's revenue model is largely based on the volume of oil produced and sold, as well as the prevailing market prices for crude oil. Additionally, the company has entered into strategic partnerships and agreements which can include profit-sharing arrangements and joint ventures, enhancing its operational efficiency and revenue potential. Factors that contribute to its earnings include oil price fluctuations, production levels, and the stability of the operational environment in Kurdistan.

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Gulf Keystone Petroleum shows strong revenue growth and cash flow stability, with a solid equity base and low debt levels. However, profitability remains a challenge, and historical volatility suggests potential risks.

Income Statement

Gulf Keystone Petroleum displayed a significant revenue growth of 22.4% from 2023 to 2024, alongside improvements in EBIT and EBITDA margins. However, the net profit margin remains low at 4.7%, indicating challenges in converting revenue to profit. Historical volatility in revenue and profitability is a concern, although recent trends suggest recovery.

Balance Sheet

The company has a strong equity base with an equity ratio of 76.7% in 2024, indicating financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is minimal, reflecting low leverage. The return on equity at 1.4% is modest, highlighting room for improvement in generating returns for shareholders.

Cash Flow

Cash flow from operations increased significantly, with a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 13.1 in 2024. The free cash flow growth rate improved remarkably compared to previous years, indicating better cash management. However, historical fluctuations in free cash flow warrant caution.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	163.17M	151.21M	123.51M	460.11M	301.39M	108.45M
Gross Profit	29.62M	20.53M	8.18M	299.50M	189.67M	-13.06M
EBITDA	89.85M	88.27M	32.43M	355.17M	230.21M	48.93M
Net Income	-498.00K	7.16M	-11.50M	266.09M	164.60M	-47.34M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	630.17M	667.68M	697.15M	744.36M	764.26M	658.51M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	99.04M	102.35M	81.71M	119.46M	169.87M	147.83M
Total Debt	1.51M	1.51M	398.00K	710.00K	100.33M	104.77M
Total Liabilities	149.70M	155.35M	149.91M	171.43M	242.55M	204.49M
Stockholders Equity	480.48M	512.33M	547.24M	572.92M	521.70M	454.02M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	64.03M	65.94M	-14.06M	266.94M	122.85M	-21.58M
Operating Cash Flow	89.04M	93.54M	51.32M	374.30M	178.53M	36.78M
Investing Cash Flow	-25.11M	-27.60M	-63.94M	-107.36M	-55.68M	-58.36M
Financing Cash Flow	-68.48M	-45.47M	-25.32M	-317.25M	-100.69M	-21.48M

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 178.20
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:GKP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 178.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 175.73, below the 50-day MA of 182.17, and above the 200-day MA of 168.10, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:GKP.

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
GKP	63 Neutral	£384.97M	-1,108.75	-0.09%	8.46%	38.03%	94.56%
GENL	56 Neutral	$168.23M	-4.00	-11.54%	―	-0.20%	-25.68%
TLW	53 Neutral	£103.40M	-0.65	―	―	-32.47%	-1490.91%
CNE	52 Neutral	£135.11M	-8.48	-6.29%	―	-32.66%	72.67%
PANR	47 Neutral	£289.59M	-22.55	―	―	-100.00%	-84.62%

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Corporate Events

Gulf Keystone Completes First Kurdistan Crude Lifting for Export

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. announced the successful completion of its first lifting of Kurdistan crude for pipeline exports, alongside other International Oil Companies, at the Ceyhan oil terminal in Türkiye. The company expects to receive payment for its share within 30 days, with a second lifting planned for the end of November 2025. This development marks a significant step in the company’s operations, potentially enhancing its market positioning and providing financial benefits to stakeholders.

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Maintains Stable Share Allocation in Latest Block Listing Return

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd announced its six-monthly block listing return, reporting no changes in the balance of unallotted securities under its Deferred Bonus Plan/Long Term Incentive Plan. The balance remains at 251,847 common shares of $1 each, indicating stability in the company’s share allocation strategy.

Gulf Keystone Resumes Shaikan Field Exports

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. announced the restart of crude exports from the Shaikan Field via the Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline, with expectations to reach full capacity soon. This development is significant for the company’s operations as it aligns with their 2025 production guidance and enhances their market positioning in the region.

Gulf Keystone Resumes Kurdistan Crude Exports via Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline

Gulf Keystone Petroleum announced the restart of crude exports from Kurdistan via the Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline, following agreements with the Kurdistan Regional Government and the Federal Government of Iraq. This move is expected to enhance the company’s cash flow by returning to international sales prices and facilitate long-term investment in Kurdistan’s oil and gas reserves. The agreements comply with Iraq’s 2023-2025 Budget Law and ensure compensation for production costs during an interim period, with a reconciliation to full Production Sharing Contract entitlement anticipated thereafter.

Gulf Keystone Announces Interim Dividend and Exchange Rate Details

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. has announced an interim dividend of $25 million, equivalent to 11.52 US cents per Common Share, to be paid on 30 September 2025. Shareholders receiving dividends in GBP will receive 8.443 pence per Common Share, based on the exchange rate of $1:£0.7329 as of 17 September 2025.

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Eyes Dual Listing in Oslo

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd is considering a potential dual listing of its shares on Euronext Growth Oslo to enhance share liquidity, attract new investors, and improve access to capital markets. The Oslo Stock Exchange is seen as a strategic choice due to its strong support for the oil and gas sector and Gulf Keystone’s existing reputation among Oslo investors. The company is preparing for this move, which includes engaging with market participants and potentially facilitating a secondary offering to boost trading liquidity. The decision remains subject to market conditions and strategic priorities.