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Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GB:GKP)
LSE:GKP
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Gulf Keystone Petroleum
(LSE:GKP)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
199.00p
▲(12.81% Upside)
Gulf Keystone Petroleum's overall score reflects strong financial stability and positive technical indicators, tempered by high valuation concerns and geopolitical risks. The company's ability to manage operational disruptions and improve profitability will be key to future performance.
Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£368.04M
Dividend Yield8.92%
Average Volume (3M)545.90K
Price to Earnings (P/E)70.7
Beta (1Y)1.58
Revenue Growth38.03%
EPS Growth94.56%
CountryUK
Employees411
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)<0.01
Shares Outstanding217,005,280
10 Day Avg. Volume755,250
30 Day Avg. Volume545,897
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)0.00
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£210.00Price Target Upside19.05% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company with a focus on the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. The company is primarily engaged in the exploration, development, and production of oil from its flagship Shaikan field, which is one of the largest oil discoveries in the region. GKP operates in the upstream sector of the oil and gas industry, aiming to enhance its production capabilities and increase reserves through strategic investments and operational efficiencies.
How the Company Makes MoneyGulf Keystone Petroleum generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil produced from its Shaikan oil field. The company's revenue model is driven by the production and export of oil, with sales typically made under long-term contracts or spot market agreements. Key revenue streams include the sale of oil to local refineries and international markets, with pricing influenced by global oil prices and production levels. Additionally, GKP benefits from significant partnerships with local and international oil companies, which help enhance operational capabilities and provide access to additional markets. The company's ability to manage production costs effectively and optimize its operations also contributes to its profitability.
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 28, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 01, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a mix of positive and challenging aspects. There were notable improvements in production, revenue, and dividend payouts, alongside strategic investments in infrastructure. However, these were countered by operational disruptions due to geopolitical tensions and security issues, as well as uncertainty surrounding export operations.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Increased Production and Revenue
Gross average production increased by 12% in the first half of 2025 to 44,100 barrels of oil per day compared to the first half of 2024. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 13% to $41 million, driven by increased production and higher average realized prices.
Dividend Announcement
Declared an additional $25 million interim dividend to be paid on September 30, bringing total dividends paid and declared in 2025 to $50 million.
Safety and Operational Milestones
Extended track record of zero lost time incidents to over 950 days and resumed production following temporary shut-in due to security concerns.
Water Handling Facility Investment
Sanctioned the installation of water handling facilities at Production Facility 2, expected to unlock 4,000 to 8,000 barrels of oil per day of incremental production by 2027.
Negative Updates
Security and Operational Disruptions
Production was temporarily shut down in mid-July due to drone attacks on neighboring oil fields, affecting gross average production guidance.
Impact of Geopolitical Events
Sales were reduced in June due to trucking shortages around the Eid Al-Adha holiday and conflict between Israel and Iran.
Uncertain Export Restart
Continued uncertainty regarding the restart of exports through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, with ongoing negotiations needed for solution.
Company Guidance
During the call, detailed guidance for the fiscal year 2025 was provided, including a tightened gross average production target of between 40,000 to 42,000 barrels of oil per day, reflecting disruptions from June to August. The company emphasized capital and cost discipline, projecting net CapEx for 2025 to be between $30 million and $35 million, slightly increased from previous guidance due to the water handling project. Operating expenses (OpEx) and general and administrative (G&A) expenses are expected to remain between $50 million and $55 million and under $10 million, respectively. The company declared a $25 million interim dividend to be paid on September 30, bringing total dividends for the year to $50 million. Additionally, the first half of 2025 saw a 13% increase in adjusted EBITDA to $41 million, driven by a 12% rise in gross average production and an average realized price of $27.80 per barrel. The company's strategic focus includes maintaining a robust cash balance, with cash and liquidity improving to $106 million as of the end of June. Discussions with government stakeholders for the restart of Kurdistan exports were also highlighted as a key area of focus.Gulf Keystone Petroleum Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Gulf Keystone Petroleum shows a positive trajectory in revenue growth and cash flow stability, with strong equity and low debt levels enhancing financial resilience. However, profitability remains a challenge, and historical volatility suggests potential risks.Income Statement
Gulf Keystone Petroleum displayed a significant revenue growth of 22.4% from 2023 to 2024, alongside improvements in EBIT and EBITDA margins. However, the net profit margin remains low at 4.7%, indicating challenges in converting revenue to profit. Historical volatility in revenue and profitability is a concern, although recent trends suggest recovery.62
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company has a strong equity base with an equity ratio of 76.7% in 2024, indicating financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is minimal, reflecting low leverage. The return on equity at 1.4% is modest, highlighting room for improvement in generating returns for shareholders.75
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow from operations increased significantly, with a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 13.1 in 2024. The free cash flow growth rate improved remarkably compared to previous years, indicating better cash management. However, historical fluctuations in free cash flow warrant caution.80
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 151.21M | 123.51M | 460.11M | 301.39M | 108.45M |
| Gross Profit | 20.53M | 8.18M | 299.50M | 196.73M | -19.83M |
| EBITDA | 88.27M | 32.43M | 355.17M | 230.21M | 48.93M |
| Net Income | 7.16M | -11.50M | 266.09M | 164.60M | -47.34M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 667.68M | 697.15M | 744.36M | 764.26M | 658.51M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 102.35M | 81.71M | 119.46M | 169.87M | 147.83M |
| Total Debt | 1.51M | 398.00K | 710.00K | 100.33M | 104.77M |
| Total Liabilities | 155.35M | 149.91M | 171.43M | 242.55M | 204.49M |
| Stockholders Equity | 512.33M | 547.24M | 572.92M | 521.70M | 454.02M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 65.94M | -14.06M | 266.94M | 122.85M | -21.58M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 93.54M | 51.32M | 374.30M | 178.53M | 36.78M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -27.60M | -63.94M | -107.36M | -55.68M | -58.36M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -45.47M | -25.32M | -317.25M | -100.69M | -21.48M |
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Technical Analysis
Positive
176.40
Price Trends
166.20
Positive
158.64
Positive
156.16
Positive
Market Momentum
2.31
Positive
55.84
Neutral
18.55
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:GKP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 176.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 175.48, above the 50-day MA of 166.20, and above the 200-day MA of 156.16, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.55 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:GKP.
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | £368.04M | 70.67 | -0.09% | 8.92% | 38.03% | 94.56% | |
60 Neutral | 170.71M | -4.06 | -21.52% | ― | -0.20% | -25.68% | |
54 Neutral | 152.62M | -0.97 | -20.02% | ― | -32.47% | -1490.91% | |
51 Neutral | 149.50M | -14.63 | 3.03% | ― | -28.38% | 90.60% | |
47 Neutral | 318.99M | -26.82 | 0.00% | ― | -100.00% | 0.00% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
GB:GKP
Gulf Keystone Petroleum
176.40
75.93
75.57%
GEGYF
Genel Energy
0.90
-0.12
-11.76%
GB:CNE
Capricorn Energy PLC
223.00
6.00
2.76%
GB:PANR
Pantheon Resources
25.15
8.37
49.88%
GB:RKH
Rockhopper Exploration
76.00
62.00
442.86%
GB:TLW
Tullow Oil
10.60
-12.88
-54.86%
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Gulf Keystone to Announce Half-Year Results and Resumes Shaikan Operations
Neutral
Aug 13, 2025
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. announced that it will release its half-year results for 2025 on 28 August, with a presentation for analysts and investors scheduled on the same day. The company has resumed production operations at the Shaikan Field after a security assessment and is in discussions with the Kurdistan Regional Government to restart pipeline exports, pending written agreements.
The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GKP) stock is a Buy with a £1.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gulf Keystone Petroleum stock, see the GB:GKP Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and Strategy
Gulf Keystone Temporarily Halts Shaikan Field Operations Amid Nearby Explosions
Negative
Jul 16, 2025
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. has temporarily shut down production at its Shaikan Field following reports of explosions at nearby oil fields. The company has taken precautionary measures to protect its staff and assets, which remain unaffected, and is closely monitoring the situation for further developments.
The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GKP) stock is a Buy with a £1.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gulf Keystone Petroleum stock, see the GB:GKP Stock Forecast page.
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Secures Shareholder Approval at 2025 AGM
Positive
Jun 20, 2025
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. announced that all resolutions proposed at its 2025 Annual General Meeting were approved by shareholders. This includes the reappointment of directors and the approval of the company’s remuneration policy, signaling strong shareholder support and stability in its governance structure.
The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GKP) stock is a Hold with a £1.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gulf Keystone Petroleum stock, see the GB:GKP Stock Forecast page.
Shareholder Meetings
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Announces Virtual 2025 AGM Details
Neutral
May 15, 2025
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. has announced the details of its 2025 Annual General Meeting (AGM), which will be held via webcast on June 20, 2025. The company has published the Notice of Meeting and related documents, encouraging shareholders to vote in advance and appoint the Chairman as their proxy. This virtual AGM format allows all shareholders to participate and engage with the company’s strategic direction and governance.
The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GKP) stock is a Buy with a £190.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gulf Keystone Petroleum stock, see the GB:GKP Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.