Ferrexpo (FXPO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £267.71M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.20M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.16
• Revenue Growth: 39.52%
• EPS Growth: 43.71%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 7,078
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: Steel
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 598,137,150
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,801,310
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,199,389
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £67.50
• Price Target Upside: 48.35% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 45 Neutral
• Price Target: 0.50p ▼(-98.90% Downside)

Ferrexpo is facing multiple challenges, with significant financial pressure due to declining revenues and profitability. Technical indicators point to a bearish outlook, and valuation metrics are unfavorable with a negative P/E ratio. Corporate events add further risk, though executive share purchases provide a slight positive note. Overall, caution is advised for potential investors.

Ferrexpo Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ferrexpo plc, together with its subsidiaries, mines for, develops, processes, produces, markets, exports, and sells iron ore pellets to the metallurgical industry. It operates two mines and a processing plant near Kremenchug in Ukraine; a port in Odessa; a fleet of vessels operating on the Rhine and Danube waterways; and an ocean-going vessel, which provides top-off services. The company also offers finance, management, procurement, transportation, marketing, shipping, barging, and port services. It has operation in Europe, North East Asia, China, South East Asia, Turkey, the Middle East, North Africa, and internationally. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Baar, Switzerland. Ferrexpo Plc is a subsidiary of Fevamotinico S.a.r.l.

How the Company Makes Money

Ferrexpo generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of iron ore pellets. The company's key revenue stream comes from exporting these pellets to steel manufacturers around the world, with a significant portion of sales directed towards European and Asian markets. Ferrexpo's earnings are influenced by global iron ore prices, production volumes, and operational efficiencies. The company benefits from long-term contracts with major steel producers, which help stabilize revenue. Additionally, Ferrexpo invests in cost-effective mining technologies and infrastructure to enhance productivity and reduce operational costs, contributing to its financial performance.

Ferrexpo Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ferrexpo's financial performance is under significant pressure. The company faces declining revenue and profitability, with a gross profit margin dropping from 71.4% in 2021 to 36.0% in 2024 and a net profit margin turning negative. Despite a strong equity ratio and low leverage, persistent net losses and negative free cash flow are concerning, highlighting operational inefficiencies and rising costs.

Income Statement

The income statement reveals a concerning trend with declining revenue and profitability over recent years. The gross profit margin has decreased from 71.4% in 2021 to 36.0% in 2024, reflecting increased cost pressures. Additionally, the net profit margin has turned negative, from 34.6% in 2021 to -5.4% in 2024, highlighting operational challenges. Revenue growth has been negative in recent years, with a significant drop of 62.9% from 2021 to 2023. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also deteriorated, indicating decreased operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a relatively stable equity position with an equity ratio of 77.8% in 2024, suggesting a low reliance on debt. However, there is a notable decline in stockholders' equity from previous years, reflecting accumulated losses. The debt-to-equity ratio remains low at 0.006, indicating conservative leverage. However, return on equity has turned negative due to consistent net losses, posing a risk to shareholder value.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates declining free cash flow, which turned negative in 2024. While operating cash flow remains positive, the free cash flow to net income ratio is concerning due to negative net income. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is skewed due to persistent losses, and despite positive operating cash flows, capital expenditures exceed generated cash flows, impacting liquidity.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	866.32M	933.26M	651.79M	1.25B	2.52B	1.70B
Gross Profit	297.63M	335.82M	289.30M	666.04M	1.79B	1.09B
EBITDA	102.98M	42.48M	-8.01M	438.55M	1.19B	861.46M
Net Income	-56.31M	-50.05M	-84.78M	220.00M	870.99M	635.29M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.32B	1.19B	1.35B	1.35B	2.09B	1.95B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	115.13M	105.92M	115.24M	112.94M	167.29M	270.01M
Total Debt	3.62M	5.08M	6.95M	6.55M	50.35M	266.48M
Total Liabilities	238.89M	263.29M	233.69M	104.46M	260.35M	463.49M
Stockholders Equity	1.08B	923.59M	1.11B	1.25B	1.83B	1.49B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-21.62M	-9.79M	-78.00K	140.25M	732.96M	481.44M
Operating Cash Flow	76.59M	91.90M	101.17M	301.26M	1.09B	687.22M
Investing Cash Flow	-93.59M	-97.53M	-96.55M	-159.30M	-355.29M	-205.47M
Financing Cash Flow	-5.60M	-5.66M	-5.87M	-203.09M	-840.18M	-343.43M

Ferrexpo Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 45.50
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:FXPO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 45.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 46.87, below the 50-day MA of 48.10, and below the 200-day MA of 71.51, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.83 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:FXPO.

Ferrexpo Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ATYM	77 Outperform	$633.42M	12.52	11.38%	1.35%	17.22%	97.69%
GFM	71 Outperform	£346.30M	39.92	4.18%	―	-9.69%	-26.86%
KMR	62 Neutral	£287.85M	5.67	5.55%	7.46%	-12.22%	-49.48%
FXPO	45 Neutral	£267.71M	―	-4.70%	―	39.52%	43.71%
Sector *	44 Neutral	AU$1.46B	-5.91	-41.10%	4.24%	-3.35%	-41.14%
EVR	―	£1.18B	―		―	―	―
ZIOC	―	$70.92M	―	-2.65%	―	―	―

Ferrexpo Corporate Events

Ferrexpo Faces Production Challenges Amid VAT Refund Suspension

Ferrexpo reported a significant decrease in production for the second quarter of 2025 due to the suspension of VAT refunds by Ukrainian tax authorities, which affected financial liquidity and forced operational downscaling. Despite these challenges, Ferrexpo adapted by shifting its production mix to meet strong demand from China for high-grade low-alumina iron ore concentrates, which constituted a significant portion of its production mix. The company has implemented cost-cutting measures, including reduced working hours and suspension of non-essential expenditures, to maintain financial viability amid lower iron ore prices and increased raw material costs.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FXPO) stock is a Hold with a £1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ferrexpo stock, see the GB:FXPO Stock Forecast page.

Ferrexpo Awards Share Interests to Key Executives

Ferrexpo PLC has announced that several of its directors and senior managers have been granted conditional interests in ordinary shares under the company’s Long Term Incentive Plan. This move, approved by the Remuneration Committee, reflects the company’s commitment to aligning management incentives with shareholder interests, potentially impacting the company’s operational focus and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FXPO) stock is a Hold with a £1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ferrexpo stock, see the GB:FXPO Stock Forecast page.

Ferrexpo Executives Acquire Shares Under LTIP

Ferrexpo plc announced that several of its directors and senior managers, including Nikolay Kladiev, Yaroslavna Blonska, Viktor Lotous, and Greg Nortje, have acquired beneficial interests in ordinary shares as part of the company’s Long-Term Incentive Plan (LTIP). The transactions were conducted on the London Stock Exchange, with shares priced at GBP 0.4774 each. This move highlights the company’s commitment to aligning management interests with shareholder value, potentially strengthening its market position and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FXPO) stock is a Hold with a £1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ferrexpo stock, see the GB:FXPO Stock Forecast page.

Ferrexpo AGM Results: Key Resolutions and Shareholder Opposition

Ferrexpo’s Annual General Meeting (AGM) on May 22, 2025, resulted in the approval of most resolutions, including the re-appointment of MHA Audit Services LLP as auditors. However, significant shareholder opposition was noted against the authority to allot shares and disapply pre-emption rights, leading to these resolutions not passing. Additionally, the re-election of Vitalii Lisovenko as an Independent Non-executive Director did not receive sufficient votes from independent shareholders, prompting a potential second vote. The Board plans to engage with shareholders to understand the opposition and will provide an update within six months.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FXPO) stock is a Hold with a £1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ferrexpo stock, see the GB:FXPO Stock Forecast page.

Ferrexpo Reports $50.7 Million in Payments to Ukrainian Government for 2024

Ferrexpo PLC reported its payments to governments for the year ending December 31, 2024, in compliance with the Reports on Payments to Governments Regulations 2014. The company made significant payments totaling $50.7 million to the Ukrainian government, with contributions to state, regional, and local budgets. These payments reflect Ferrexpo’s ongoing operations in Ukraine, highlighting its role as a major player in the global iron ore market and its commitment to regulatory compliance. The announcement underscores Ferrexpo’s continued impact on the Ukrainian economy and its strategic importance in the steel industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FXPO) stock is a Hold with a £1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ferrexpo stock, see the GB:FXPO Stock Forecast page.

Ferrexpo Faces Potential Bankruptcy Proceedings for Ukrainian Subsidiary

Ferrexpo plc has announced that its Ukrainian subsidiary, Ferrexpo Poltava Mining (FPM), is facing potential bankruptcy proceedings initiated by Maxi Capital due to a contested sureties claim. The Commercial Court of Poltava region has accepted the application for consideration, with a preparatory hearing scheduled for 27 May 2025. The claim involves a significant financial dispute over guarantees related to Bank Finance & Credit, which is undergoing liquidation. Ferrexpo is actively defending its position in the Supreme Court, which has currently suspended enforcement of the claim. The outcome of these proceedings could significantly impact Ferrexpo’s operations and financial standing in Ukraine.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FXPO) stock is a Hold with a £1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ferrexpo stock, see the GB:FXPO Stock Forecast page.