Ferrexpo (FXPO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £321.84M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.71M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.00
• Revenue Growth: -5.85%
• EPS Growth: -413.36%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 7,078
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Steel
• EPS (TTM): -0.26
• Shares Outstanding: 598,137,150
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,368,046
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,714,492
• PEG Ratio: 0.40
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.86
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.85
• P/FCF Ratio: -81.03
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £50.00
• Price Target Upside: -29.68% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: 69.00p ▼(-2.95% Downside)

Ferrexpo's overall stock score is primarily influenced by its challenging financial performance, with declining revenues and profitability being major concerns. Technical analysis provides a more positive outlook with strong momentum indicators. Valuation remains a concern due to negative earnings. Corporate events highlight operational challenges but also demonstrate the company's resilience and commitment to responsible business practices.

Positive Factors

Strong Equity Ratio

A high equity ratio indicates low reliance on debt, providing financial stability and flexibility to navigate economic fluctuations.

Operational Efficiency

Operational efficiencies and cost controls help maintain profitability, even in fluctuating market conditions, supporting long-term viability.

Stable Income Stream

Long-term contracts ensure consistent revenue, reducing volatility and supporting sustained business operations over time.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue

Declining revenue indicates challenges in market demand or competitive positioning, potentially impacting long-term growth prospects.

Negative Free Cash Flow

Negative free cash flow limits the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities and manage debt, affecting financial health.

Decreased Profit Margins

Decreased profit margins reflect increased cost pressures and operational inefficiencies, challenging the company's profitability.

Ferrexpo Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ferrexpo plc is a British-based iron ore company, primarily engaged in the production and export of iron ore pellets, which are essential raw materials for steel manufacturing. Operating mainly in Ukraine, Ferrexpo focuses on the extraction of iron ore from its mines and the subsequent processing to create high-quality iron ore pellets. The company plays a significant role in the global iron ore market, supplying its products to steel producers in various countries. Ferrexpo's commitment to sustainability and efficiency also underscores its operations in the mining and metallurgical sectors.

How the Company Makes Money

Ferrexpo generates revenue primarily through the sale of iron ore pellets to steel manufacturers worldwide. Its revenue model is largely based on the volume of pellets produced and sold, alongside market prices for iron ore. The company has established long-term contracts with several key customers, which provide a stable income stream, while spot market sales can contribute additional revenue, especially during periods of high demand. Ferrexpo also benefits from operational efficiencies and cost controls, allowing it to maintain profitability even in fluctuating market conditions. Additionally, factors such as geopolitical stability in Ukraine, international iron ore prices, and the company's mining and production capabilities significantly influence its earnings.

Ferrexpo Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ferrexpo's financial health is under pressure, primarily due to declining revenues and profitability. Despite a strong equity ratio and low leverage, persistent net losses and negative free cash flow are concerning. The company needs to address operational inefficiencies and cost management to return to profitability and improve overall financial stability. Investors should be cautious of ongoing financial challenges and potential risks in the steel industry.

Income Statement

The income statement reveals a concerning trend with declining revenue and profitability over recent years. The gross profit margin has decreased from 71.4% in 2021 to 36.0% in 2024, reflecting increased cost pressures. Additionally, the net profit margin has turned negative, from 34.6% in 2021 to -5.4% in 2024, highlighting operational challenges. Revenue growth has been negative in recent years, with a significant drop of 62.9% from 2021 to 2023. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also deteriorated, indicating decreased operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a relatively stable equity position with an equity ratio of 77.8% in 2024, suggesting a low reliance on debt. However, there is a notable decline in stockholders' equity from previous years, reflecting accumulated losses. The debt-to-equity ratio remains low at 0.006, indicating conservative leverage. However, return on equity has turned negative due to consistent net losses, posing a risk to shareholder value.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates declining free cash flow, which turned negative in 2024. While operating cash flow remains positive, the free cash flow to net income ratio is concerning due to negative net income. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is skewed due to persistent losses, and despite positive operating cash flows, capital expenditures exceed generated cash flows, impacting liquidity.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	644.97M	933.26M	651.79M	1.25B	2.52B	1.70B
Gross Profit	289.54M	335.82M	289.30M	666.04M	1.79B	1.09B
EBITDA	-209.50M	42.48M	-8.01M	438.55M	1.19B	861.46M
Net Income	-248.76M	-50.05M	-84.78M	220.00M	870.99M	635.29M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	982.69M	1.19B	1.35B	1.35B	2.09B	1.95B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	52.26M	105.92M	115.24M	112.94M	167.29M	270.01M
Total Debt	2.72M	5.08M	6.95M	6.55M	50.35M	266.48M
Total Liabilities	242.94M	263.29M	233.69M	104.46M	260.35M	463.49M
Stockholders Equity	739.68M	923.59M	1.11B	1.25B	1.83B	1.49B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-62.29M	-9.79M	-78.00K	140.25M	732.96M	481.44M
Operating Cash Flow	12.47M	91.90M	101.17M	301.26M	1.09B	687.22M
Investing Cash Flow	-71.16M	-97.53M	-96.55M	-159.30M	-355.29M	-205.47M
Financing Cash Flow	-5.27M	-5.66M	-5.87M	-203.09M	-840.18M	-343.43M

Ferrexpo Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 71.10
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:FXPO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 71.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 65.72, above the 50-day MA of 58.80, and above the 200-day MA of 56.29, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 60.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:FXPO.

Ferrexpo Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ATYM	78 Outperform	£950.12M	15.11	15.06%	0.80%	23.97%	216.41%
GFM	68 Neutral	£325.08M	49.73	3.23%	―	-32.18%	-58.29%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
FXPO	57 Neutral	£321.84M	-1.38	-33.39%	―	-5.85%	-413.36%
KMR	56 Neutral	£225.51M	―	-4.64%	6.75%	6.65%	-159.09%

Ferrexpo Corporate Events

Ferrexpo Faces Production Disruption Due to Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure Attacks

Ferrexpo plc announced that recent attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure have disrupted power supply to its operations, affecting production and exports. Despite the challenges, the company has prepared by maintaining stocks of intermediary and finished products to minimize disruption. Efforts are ongoing to restore power and resume full production capacity.

Ferrexpo Publishes Tenth Annual Responsible Business Report Amid Ongoing Conflict

Ferrexpo has released its tenth annual Responsible Business Report for 2024, marking its first report aligned with Global Reporting Initiative standards. Despite the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Ferrexpo continues to prioritize health and safety, community engagement, and environmental responsibility. The report highlights achievements such as increased female representation in management, a decrease in emissions, and recognition for humanitarian efforts. The company’s commitment to ESG standards and its role in supporting Ukraine’s social and economic fabric remain steadfast, underscoring its resilience and dedication to responsible business practices.

Ferrexpo Navigates Challenges to Boost Q3 Production Amid VAT Suspension

Ferrexpo reported a 3% increase in production for the third quarter of 2025, achieving 1.51 million tonnes despite challenges, including the suspension of VAT refunds by Ukrainian tax authorities and intensified aerial attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure. The company has implemented cost-cutting measures and reduced production to one pellet line due to financial constraints, while still meeting strong demand from Chinese customers for high-grade low-alumina concentrates. The ongoing VAT refund suspension remains a critical issue, with withheld amounts totaling $47 million, impacting financial liquidity and necessitating operational adjustments.

Ferrexpo Re-elects Independent Director Amidst Strategic Focus

Ferrexpo PLC announced the successful re-election of Vitalii Lisovenko as an Independent Non-executive Director during its General Meeting. The resolution was passed with 87.04% of votes in favor, reflecting shareholder support for the company’s governance. This decision is significant for Ferrexpo’s strategic direction and stability, particularly given its role in the global steel industry and the challenges posed by geopolitical tensions in Ukraine.