tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Ferrexpo (GB:FXPO)
LSE:FXPO

Ferrexpo (FXPO) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
142 Followers

Top Page

GB

Ferrexpo

(LSE:FXPO)

Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
48.00p
▼(-2.93%Downside)
The overall stock score reflects significant financial and operational challenges. The main concerns include declining revenue and profitability, unfavorable technical indicators, and a negative valuation profile. Corporate events amplify risks, particularly geopolitical and legal challenges in Ukraine. Despite management's confidence shown through share acquisitions, the overwhelming negative factors suggest caution.

Ferrexpo (FXPO) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Ferrexpo Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFerrexpo plc, together with its subsidiaries, mines for, develops, processes, produces, markets, exports, and sells iron ore pellets to the metallurgical industry. It operates two mines and a processing plant near Kremenchug in Ukraine; a port in Odessa; a fleet of vessels operating on the Rhine and Danube waterways; and an ocean-going vessel, which provides top-off services. The company also offers finance, management, procurement, transportation, marketing, shipping, barging, and port services. It has operation in Europe, North East Asia, China, South East Asia, Turkey, the Middle East, North Africa, and internationally. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Baar, Switzerland. Ferrexpo Plc is a subsidiary of Fevamotinico S.a.r.l.
How the Company Makes MoneyFerrexpo makes money by mining, processing, and selling iron ore pellets. The company's primary revenue stream comes from the sale of these pellets to steel manufacturers, who use them as a critical raw material in steel production. Ferrexpo's operations involve extracting iron ore, processing it into high-grade pellets, and then distributing these products to customers via a well-established logistics network. Additionally, the company benefits from long-term supply contracts with various steel producers, which helps stabilize earnings and provides predictable revenue. Ferrexpo's strategic location in Ukraine allows it to efficiently supply European and Asian markets, further enhancing its revenue potential.

Ferrexpo Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Ferrexpo's financial performance is under significant pressure. The company faces declining revenue and profitability, with a gross profit margin dropping from 71.4% in 2021 to 36.0% in 2024 and a net profit margin turning negative. Despite a strong equity ratio and low leverage, persistent net losses and negative free cash flow are concerning, highlighting operational inefficiencies and rising costs.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
The income statement reveals a concerning trend with declining revenue and profitability over recent years. The gross profit margin has decreased from 71.4% in 2021 to 36.0% in 2024, reflecting increased cost pressures. Additionally, the net profit margin has turned negative, from 34.6% in 2021 to -5.4% in 2024, highlighting operational challenges. Revenue growth has been negative in recent years, with a significant drop of 62.9% from 2021 to 2023. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also deteriorated, indicating decreased operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a relatively stable equity position with an equity ratio of 77.8% in 2024, suggesting a low reliance on debt. However, there is a notable decline in stockholders' equity from previous years, reflecting accumulated losses. The debt-to-equity ratio remains low at 0.006, indicating conservative leverage. However, return on equity has turned negative due to consistent net losses, posing a risk to shareholder value.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Cash flow analysis indicates declining free cash flow, which turned negative in 2024. While operating cash flow remains positive, the free cash flow to net income ratio is concerning due to negative net income. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is skewed due to persistent losses, and despite positive operating cash flows, capital expenditures exceed generated cash flows, impacting liquidity.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
866.32M933.26M651.79M1.25B2.52B1.70B
Gross Profit
297.63M335.82M289.30M666.04M1.79B1.09B
EBIT
76.11M17.61M71.13M405.12M1.08B748.67M
EBITDA
102.98M42.48M-8.01M438.55M1.19B861.46M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-56.31M-50.05M-84.78M220.00M870.99M635.29M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
115.13M105.92M115.24M112.94M167.29M270.01M
Total Assets
1.32B1.19B1.35B1.35B2.09B1.95B
Total Debt
3.62M5.08M6.95M6.55M50.35M266.48M
Net Debt
-111.51M-100.83M-108.29M-106.40M-116.94M-3.53M
Total Liabilities
238.89M263.29M233.69M104.46M260.35M463.49M
Stockholders Equity
1.08B923.59M1.11B1.25B1.83B1.49B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-21.62M-9.79M-78.00K140.25M732.96M481.44M
Operating Cash Flow
76.59M91.90M101.17M301.26M1.09B687.22M
Investing Cash Flow
-93.59M-97.53M-96.55M-159.30M-355.29M-205.47M
Financing Cash Flow
-5.60M-5.66M-5.87M-203.09M-840.18M-343.43M

Ferrexpo Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price49.45
Price Trends
50DMA
56.53
Negative
100DMA
71.03
Negative
200DMA
70.88
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-3.64
Positive
RSI
37.52
Neutral
STOCH
24.23
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:FXPO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 49.45 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 56.97, below the 50-day MA of 56.53, and below the 200-day MA of 70.88, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.64 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:FXPO.

Ferrexpo Risk Analysis

Ferrexpo disclosed 14 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ferrexpo reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Ferrexpo Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
£612.30M12.1011.38%8.44%17.22%97.69%
51
Neutral
$2.04B-1.15-21.24%3.95%2.91%-30.44%
45
Neutral
£286.24M-4.70%39.52%43.71%
GBEVR
£1.18B
GBGFM
£302.69M34.874.18%
£73.25M-4.08%
GBKMR
76
Outperform
£347.99M6.855.55%4.81%-12.22%-49.48%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:FXPO
Ferrexpo
49.45
5.10
11.50%
GB:ATYM
Atalaya Mining
452.50
50.48
12.56%
GB:EVR
EVRAZ plc
81.00
0.00
0.00%
GB:GFM
Griffin Mining
163.00
9.00
5.84%
GB:ZIOC
Zanaga Iron Ore
8.76
1.25
16.64%
GB:KMR
Kenmare Resources
391.00
78.84
25.26%

Ferrexpo Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Ferrexpo Awards Share Interests to Key Executives
Neutral
Jun 10, 2025

Ferrexpo PLC has announced that several of its directors and senior managers have been granted conditional interests in ordinary shares under the company’s Long Term Incentive Plan. This move, approved by the Remuneration Committee, reflects the company’s commitment to aligning management incentives with shareholder interests, potentially impacting the company’s operational focus and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FXPO) stock is a Hold with a £1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ferrexpo stock, see the GB:FXPO Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Ferrexpo Executives Acquire Shares Under LTIP
Positive
Jun 9, 2025

Ferrexpo plc announced that several of its directors and senior managers, including Nikolay Kladiev, Yaroslavna Blonska, Viktor Lotous, and Greg Nortje, have acquired beneficial interests in ordinary shares as part of the company’s Long-Term Incentive Plan (LTIP). The transactions were conducted on the London Stock Exchange, with shares priced at GBP 0.4774 each. This move highlights the company’s commitment to aligning management interests with shareholder value, potentially strengthening its market position and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FXPO) stock is a Hold with a £1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ferrexpo stock, see the GB:FXPO Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Ferrexpo AGM Results: Key Resolutions and Shareholder Opposition
Negative
May 22, 2025

Ferrexpo’s Annual General Meeting (AGM) on May 22, 2025, resulted in the approval of most resolutions, including the re-appointment of MHA Audit Services LLP as auditors. However, significant shareholder opposition was noted against the authority to allot shares and disapply pre-emption rights, leading to these resolutions not passing. Additionally, the re-election of Vitalii Lisovenko as an Independent Non-executive Director did not receive sufficient votes from independent shareholders, prompting a potential second vote. The Board plans to engage with shareholders to understand the opposition and will provide an update within six months.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FXPO) stock is a Hold with a £1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ferrexpo stock, see the GB:FXPO Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ferrexpo Reports $50.7 Million in Payments to Ukrainian Government for 2024
Neutral
May 16, 2025

Ferrexpo PLC reported its payments to governments for the year ending December 31, 2024, in compliance with the Reports on Payments to Governments Regulations 2014. The company made significant payments totaling $50.7 million to the Ukrainian government, with contributions to state, regional, and local budgets. These payments reflect Ferrexpo’s ongoing operations in Ukraine, highlighting its role as a major player in the global iron ore market and its commitment to regulatory compliance. The announcement underscores Ferrexpo’s continued impact on the Ukrainian economy and its strategic importance in the steel industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FXPO) stock is a Hold with a £1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ferrexpo stock, see the GB:FXPO Stock Forecast page.

Legal Proceedings
Ferrexpo Faces Potential Bankruptcy Proceedings for Ukrainian Subsidiary
Negative
May 15, 2025

Ferrexpo plc has announced that its Ukrainian subsidiary, Ferrexpo Poltava Mining (FPM), is facing potential bankruptcy proceedings initiated by Maxi Capital due to a contested sureties claim. The Commercial Court of Poltava region has accepted the application for consideration, with a preparatory hearing scheduled for 27 May 2025. The claim involves a significant financial dispute over guarantees related to Bank Finance & Credit, which is undergoing liquidation. Ferrexpo is actively defending its position in the Supreme Court, which has currently suspended enforcement of the claim. The outcome of these proceedings could significantly impact Ferrexpo’s operations and financial standing in Ukraine.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FXPO) stock is a Hold with a £1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ferrexpo stock, see the GB:FXPO Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder MeetingsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ferrexpo Announces Auditor Transition Ahead of AGM
Neutral
Apr 30, 2025

Ferrexpo plc announced a change in its auditor engagement, transitioning to MHA Audit Services LLP. This necessitates an amendment to Resolution 3 for the upcoming Annual General Meeting on 22 May 2025, where shareholders will vote on the re-appointment of the new auditors. This procedural change reflects compliance with legal and corporate governance standards, ensuring transparency and continuity in Ferrexpo’s auditing processes.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ferrexpo Faces VAT Refund Suspension Impacting Operations
Negative
Apr 17, 2025

Ferrexpo has announced that the Ukrainian tax authorities have suspended VAT refunds for its subsidiaries, Ferrexpo Poltava Mining and Ferrexpo Yeristovo Mining, for February 2025, amounting to approximately US$ 11.1 million. This suspension, linked to personal sanctions on Kostiantyn Zhevago, is impacting the company’s liquidity, forcing production cuts to 25% capacity and necessitating significant cost-cutting measures. Ferrexpo is actively engaging with authorities to resolve the issue, which is placing financial pressure on its operations.

Shareholder MeetingsFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ferrexpo Publishes 2025 AGM Notice and 2024 Annual Report
Neutral
Apr 10, 2025

Ferrexpo plc has announced the publication of its 2025 Annual General Meeting notice and the 2024 Annual Report and Accounts. These documents are accessible on the company’s website and have been uploaded to the National Storage Mechanism. This announcement is part of Ferrexpo’s ongoing transparency and compliance with UK Listing Rules, reflecting its commitment to maintaining robust corporate governance and providing stakeholders with detailed insights into its operations and financial performance.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Ferrexpo Reports Record Production Amid Operational Challenges
Negative
Apr 7, 2025

Ferrexpo reported a record production of 2.1 million tonnes in the first quarter of 2025, despite operating under challenging conditions due to the suspension of VAT refunds by Ukrainian authorities. This situation has forced the company to reduce operations to one pellet line and implement cost-cutting measures, impacting the local economy and its workforce. The company is actively engaging with the Ukrainian government to restore VAT refunds to sustain higher operating levels and maintain its workforce.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ferrexpo Faces Financial Strain Amid VAT Refund Suspension in Ukraine
Negative
Mar 21, 2025

Ferrexpo announced that its Ukrainian subsidiaries have had their VAT refunds for January 2025 suspended by Ukrainian tax authorities due to personal sanctions on Kostiantyn Zhevago. This suspension, affecting refunds worth approximately US$ 12.5 million, is expected to strain the company’s liquidity, forcing reductions in production and sales amidst low iron ore prices and high costs. This situation will likely lead to decreased procurement and lower contributions to Ukraine’s economy, prompting Ferrexpo to urge Ukrainian authorities to reinstate the refunds.

Legal ProceedingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Ferrexpo Challenges Ukraine Over Investment Treaty Breaches
Negative
Mar 19, 2025

Ferrexpo PLC has issued a formal notification to Ukraine under international investment agreements, citing breaches of the UK-Ukraine and Swiss-Ukraine Bilateral Investment Treaties. This action follows a series of adverse decisions by Ukrainian state bodies, including asset freezes and management detentions, which Ferrexpo claims are without merit and contrary to Ukrainian law. The company seeks to resolve these issues through negotiations with the Ukrainian government, aiming to lift the unlawful actions and protect its investments.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Ferrexpo’s 2024: Resilience Amidst Conflict and Market Challenges
Neutral
Mar 19, 2025

Ferrexpo PLC reported a challenging yet resilient year for 2024, marked by a 66% increase in production despite operating amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The company achieved a 43% rise in revenue, although it faced a net loss of $50 million due to a significant non-cash impairment charge. The firm managed to diversify its market reach and resume shipping through Ukrainian Black Sea ports, while also investing in production capacity and sustainability initiatives. However, increased costs for electricity and consumables, alongside a weaker iron ore market outlook, impacted profitability. Ferrexpo continues to monitor the geopolitical situation closely, hoping for a resolution to the conflict.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.