Ferrexpo (FXPO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £409.51M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.71M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.93
• Revenue Growth: -5.85%
• EPS Growth: -413.36%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 7,078
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Steel
• EPS (TTM): -0.26
• Shares Outstanding: 598,137,150
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,368,046
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,714,492
• PEG Ratio: 0.40
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.86
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.85
• P/FCF Ratio: -81.03
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £61.00
• Price Target Upside: -12.98% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: 76.00p ▲(8.42% Upside)

Ferrexpo's overall stock score is primarily influenced by its challenging financial performance, with declining revenues and profitability being major concerns. Technical analysis provides a more positive outlook with strong momentum indicators. Valuation remains a concern due to negative earnings. Corporate events highlight operational challenges but also demonstrate the company's resilience and commitment to responsible business practices.

Positive Factors

Conservative Capital Structure

A very high equity ratio and negligible leverage provide durable financial flexibility, lowering refinancing and interest risks. This conservative capital structure supports survival through commodity cycles and gives capacity to fund operations or opportunistic investment without immediate debt pressure.

Positive Operating Cash Generation

Sustained positive operating cash flow shows core mining and pellet sales still generate cash, underpinning working capital and operational continuity. Over 2-6 months this supports funding of immediate operational needs and provides a base to restore free cash flow with cost or volume improvements.

Stable, Essential Business Model

Supplying essential iron ore pellets to steelmakers with long-term contracts creates predictable demand and revenue baselines. The pellet-focused product mix and established customer relationships support mid-term volume stability and a structural market position in global steel supply chains.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue and Margin Erosion

Sharp margin deterioration and falling revenues indicate structural cost pressures and reduced pricing power. Persistently lower margins weaken the firm's ability to absorb commodity volatility, requiring sustained efficiency gains or higher prices to restore profitability over the medium term.

Negative Free Cash Flow and Net Losses

Converting operating cash into negative free cash flow alongside net losses signals insufficient cash to cover capex and investments. This undermines reinvestment in mines and processing, risks liquidity pressure, and could force dependence on external funding despite low leverage.

Operational & Geopolitical Risk Exposure

Concentrated operations in Ukraine expose production to infrastructure attacks, regulatory disruptions and payment delays. These structural risks can intermittently curtail output, raise operating costs, and complicate long-term planning and customer commitments across multiple quarters.

Ferrexpo Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ferrexpo plc, together with its subsidiaries, mines for, develops, processes, produces, markets, exports, and sells iron ore pellets to the metallurgical industry. It operates two mines and a processing plant near Kremenchug in Ukraine; a port in Odessa; a fleet of vessels operating on the Rhine and Danube waterways; and an ocean-going vessel, which provides top-off services. The company also offers finance, management, procurement, transportation, marketing, shipping, barging, and port services. It has operation in Europe, North East Asia, China, South East Asia, Turkey, the Middle East, North Africa, and internationally. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Baar, Switzerland. Ferrexpo Plc is a subsidiary of Fevamotinico S.a.r.l.

How the Company Makes Money

Ferrexpo generates revenue primarily through the sale of iron ore pellets to steel manufacturers worldwide. Its revenue model is largely based on the volume of pellets produced and sold, alongside market prices for iron ore. The company has established long-term contracts with several key customers, which provide a stable income stream, while spot market sales can contribute additional revenue, especially during periods of high demand. Ferrexpo also benefits from operational efficiencies and cost controls, allowing it to maintain profitability even in fluctuating market conditions. Additionally, factors such as geopolitical stability in Ukraine, international iron ore prices, and the company's mining and production capabilities significantly influence its earnings.

Ferrexpo Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ferrexpo's financial health is under pressure, primarily due to declining revenues and profitability. Despite a strong equity ratio and low leverage, persistent net losses and negative free cash flow are concerning. The company needs to address operational inefficiencies and cost management to return to profitability and improve overall financial stability. Investors should be cautious of ongoing financial challenges and potential risks in the steel industry.

Income Statement

The income statement reveals a concerning trend with declining revenue and profitability over recent years. The gross profit margin has decreased from 71.4% in 2021 to 36.0% in 2024, reflecting increased cost pressures. Additionally, the net profit margin has turned negative, from 34.6% in 2021 to -5.4% in 2024, highlighting operational challenges. Revenue growth has been negative in recent years, with a significant drop of 62.9% from 2021 to 2023. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also deteriorated, indicating decreased operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a relatively stable equity position with an equity ratio of 77.8% in 2024, suggesting a low reliance on debt. However, there is a notable decline in stockholders' equity from previous years, reflecting accumulated losses. The debt-to-equity ratio remains low at 0.006, indicating conservative leverage. However, return on equity has turned negative due to consistent net losses, posing a risk to shareholder value.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates declining free cash flow, which turned negative in 2024. While operating cash flow remains positive, the free cash flow to net income ratio is concerning due to negative net income. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is skewed due to persistent losses, and despite positive operating cash flows, capital expenditures exceed generated cash flows, impacting liquidity.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	644.97M	933.26M	651.79M	1.25B	2.52B	1.70B
Gross Profit	289.54M	335.82M	289.30M	666.04M	1.79B	1.09B
EBITDA	-209.50M	42.48M	-8.01M	438.55M	1.19B	861.46M
Net Income	-248.76M	-50.05M	-84.78M	220.00M	870.99M	635.29M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	982.69M	1.19B	1.35B	1.35B	2.09B	1.95B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	52.26M	105.92M	115.24M	112.94M	167.29M	270.01M
Total Debt	2.72M	5.08M	6.95M	6.55M	50.35M	266.48M
Total Liabilities	242.94M	263.29M	233.69M	104.46M	260.35M	463.49M
Stockholders Equity	739.68M	923.59M	1.11B	1.25B	1.83B	1.49B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-62.29M	-9.79M	-78.00K	140.25M	732.96M	481.44M
Operating Cash Flow	12.47M	91.90M	101.17M	301.26M	1.09B	687.22M
Investing Cash Flow	-71.16M	-97.53M	-96.55M	-159.30M	-355.29M	-205.47M
Financing Cash Flow	-5.27M	-5.66M	-5.87M	-203.09M	-840.18M	-343.43M

Ferrexpo Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 70.10
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:FXPO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 70.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 73.08, above the 50-day MA of 66.47, and above the 200-day MA of 56.58, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.63 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.40 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GB:FXPO.

Ferrexpo Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MTL	69 Neutral	£455.84M	-14.76	-7.90%	―	26.71%	-119.70%
GFM	68 Neutral	£483.86M	74.05	3.23%	―	-32.18%	-58.29%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
FXPO	57 Neutral	£409.51M	-1.76	-33.39%	―	-5.85%	-413.36%
ZIOC	51 Neutral	£64.43M	-14.07	-5.50%	―	―	―
IRON	45 Neutral	£6.89M	―	―	―	―	―

Ferrexpo Corporate Events

Ferrexpo Holds Output Above 6m Tonnes in 2025 Despite Escalating War Disruptions

Ferrexpo reported that fourth-quarter 2025 iron ore production fell below plan to 1.1 million tonnes due to intensified missile and drone attacks on Ukraine’s energy, transport and port infrastructure, though full-year output remained robust at 6.1 million tonnes—above 2023 levels but 9% lower than 2024. The company significantly shifted its product mix in 2025, lifting premium 67% iron ore concentrate to a record 2.9 million tonnes, or 48% of production versus 10% a year earlier, while tightly managing working capital, cutting non-essential capex and CSR, and maintaining a net cash position of about $47 million with no debt, even as VAT refunds remained suspended and export routes were disrupted, forcing a costly pivot back to rail and constraining its ability to serve non-European markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FXPO) stock is a Hold with a £0.69 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ferrexpo stock, see the GB:FXPO Stock Forecast page.

Ferrexpo Battles War and Tax Headwinds as It Pivots to Premium Iron Ore

Ferrexpo’s interim executive chair, Lucio Genovese, used a year-end letter to contrast the company’s 30% share price decline with an 80% surge in the broader Global Mining Index, attributing the underperformance to the ongoing war in Ukraine, recent attacks on energy infrastructure that have triggered nationwide power restrictions, and liquidity pressures from Ukrainian tax authorities withholding VAT refunds. Despite these headwinds, Ferrexpo has broadened its premium-grade iron ore product mix, increased exports of concentrate to a wider customer base in Asia, and shifted more than half of its output to premium-grade concentrates, while implementing cost-cutting measures including reduced working hours, furloughs and cuts to social and humanitarian spending to preserve viability and safeguard assets as it continues operating under martial law and pursues recovery of the withheld VAT.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FXPO) stock is a Hold with a £69.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ferrexpo stock, see the GB:FXPO Stock Forecast page.

Ferrexpo Faces Production Disruption Due to Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure Attacks

Ferrexpo plc announced that recent attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure have disrupted power supply to its operations, affecting production and exports. Despite the challenges, the company has prepared by maintaining stocks of intermediary and finished products to minimize disruption. Efforts are ongoing to restore power and resume full production capacity.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FXPO) stock is a Hold with a £53.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ferrexpo stock, see the GB:FXPO Stock Forecast page.

Ferrexpo Publishes Tenth Annual Responsible Business Report Amid Ongoing Conflict

Ferrexpo has released its tenth annual Responsible Business Report for 2024, marking its first report aligned with Global Reporting Initiative standards. Despite the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Ferrexpo continues to prioritize health and safety, community engagement, and environmental responsibility. The report highlights achievements such as increased female representation in management, a decrease in emissions, and recognition for humanitarian efforts. The company’s commitment to ESG standards and its role in supporting Ukraine’s social and economic fabric remain steadfast, underscoring its resilience and dedication to responsible business practices.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FXPO) stock is a Hold with a £53.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ferrexpo stock, see the GB:FXPO Stock Forecast page.