Griffin Mining (GFM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £411.46M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 566.76K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 63.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.11
• Revenue Growth: -32.18%
• EPS Growth: -58.29%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 497
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): 0.04
• Shares Outstanding: 176,590,160
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 528,413
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 566,764
• PEG Ratio: -1.24
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.25
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.39
• P/FCF Ratio: -241.23
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £245.00
• Price Target Upside: 5.15% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: 263.00p ▲(12.88% Upside)

Griffin Mining's overall stock score reflects a mix of strong technical momentum and strategic corporate actions, offset by high valuation concerns and operational cash flow challenges. The stock's technical indicators are positive, but the high P/E ratio and recent executive share sale introduce risks.

Positive Factors

Strong Balance Sheet

A strong balance sheet with minimal leverage provides financial stability and flexibility, allowing the company to invest in growth opportunities without significant financial risk.

High Equity Ratio

A high equity ratio indicates a robust capital structure, reducing dependency on external debt and enhancing the company's ability to weather economic downturns.

Healthy Operating Cash Flow

Strong operating cash flow relative to net income suggests efficient core operations, providing the company with the necessary liquidity to fund operations and invest in future growth.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue

A decline in revenue indicates potential challenges in maintaining market share or demand, which could impact long-term growth prospects if not addressed.

Negative Free Cash Flow

Negative free cash flow suggests potential issues in cash generation or increased capital expenditures, which may limit the company's ability to invest in growth or return capital to shareholders.

Declining Profit Margins

Decreasing profit margins can indicate rising costs or pricing pressures, which may erode profitability and affect the company's ability to sustain long-term earnings growth.

Griffin Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Griffin Mining (GFM) is a mining and exploration company primarily focused on the development and production of zinc and lead in China. The company operates the Caijiaying mine, which is known for its high-grade zinc and lead resources. GFM is engaged in the exploration, mining, and processing of mineral resources, aiming to provide high-quality products to meet the demand in various industrial applications.

How the Company Makes Money

Griffin Mining generates revenue primarily through the extraction and sale of zinc and lead concentrates from its Caijiaying mine. The company benefits from selling these concentrates to smelters and traders in China and other international markets, capitalizing on the fluctuating market prices of zinc and lead. Key revenue streams include the direct sales of the mined concentrates, any associated by-products, and potentially, long-term contracts with strategic partners or customers in the mining and metal industries, which can help stabilize revenue and secure consistent sales. Additionally, factors such as efficient mining operations, cost management, and market demand for zinc and lead significantly contribute to the company's earnings.

Griffin Mining Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Griffin Mining shows a stable financial position with a strong balance sheet and adequate liquidity. However, declining revenue and profitability margins, coupled with negative free cash flow, highlight potential operational challenges and the need for improved cost management and revenue growth strategies.

Income Statement

Griffin Mining's income statement shows a mixed performance. Gross profit margin in the latest year was about 35.9%, which is healthy for the industry, but the net profit margin declined to 7.9% from 10.4% the previous year, indicating potential challenges in cost management or pricing pressures. Revenue decreased by 2.3% year-over-year, which reflects a contraction in sales. The EBIT and EBITDA margins also decreased year-over-year, suggesting declining operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is strong, with a very low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.002, indicating minimal leverage. The equity ratio is high at approximately 89.2%, showcasing strong equity financing. Return on Equity (ROE) is modest at 4.2%, reflecting stable but not exceptional shareholder returns. The company maintains a solid cash position, which supports financial flexibility.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates some weaknesses. There was a negative free cash flow of -$1.41 million in the latest year, a decline from $25.1 million the previous year, signaling potential issues with cash generation or increased capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.72, which is healthy, but the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting concerns in operational cash sufficiency.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	162.25M	142.60M	146.02M	100.01M	128.87M	79.09M
Gross Profit	68.56M	51.25M	51.84M	38.25M	58.42M	32.67M
EBITDA	62.06M	42.55M	52.69M	35.00M	53.46M	27.68M
Net Income	21.34M	11.35M	15.24M	7.70M	25.38M	8.91M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	324.43M	305.75M	321.22M	305.59M	320.53M	295.48M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	65.25M	48.76M	60.01M	34.14M	38.16M	16.43M
Total Debt	677.00K	620.00K	739.00K	852.00K	971.00K	383.00K
Total Liabilities	51.26M	33.08M	51.47M	60.13M	57.96M	61.77M
Stockholders Equity	273.16M	272.67M	269.75M	245.47M	262.58M	233.71M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	27.02M	-1.41M	25.10M	-5.57M	22.88M	-37.00K
Operating Cash Flow	50.96M	19.58M	48.38M	15.73M	42.88M	24.40M
Investing Cash Flow	-22.78M	-18.81M	-21.89M	-20.93M	-19.77M	-24.33M
Financing Cash Flow	-10.99M	-11.63M	-555.00K	-167.00K	-613.00K	-2.57M

Griffin Mining Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 233.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:GFM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 233 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 216.94, above the 50-day MA of 201.25, and above the 200-day MA of 186.66, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 11.72 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:GFM.

Griffin Mining Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GFM	68 Neutral	£411.46M	62.97	3.23%	―	-32.18%	-58.29%
ECOR	66 Neutral	£269.46M	-11.46	-6.87%	1.77%	-63.09%	-253.25%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
JLP	61 Neutral	£95.96M	―	―	―	―	―
KMR	56 Neutral	£210.47M	-5.46	-4.64%	7.05%	6.65%	-159.09%
SOLG	41 Neutral	£762.70M	-16.08	-27.65%	―	―	1.86%

Griffin Mining Corporate Events

Griffin Mining on Track for Zone II Commissioning at Caijiaying Mine

Griffin Mining Limited has announced that the commissioning of ore extraction from Zone II at the Caijiaying Mine is on track to begin in the first quarter of 2026. The company continues to support government safety measures, which have impacted production and financial results until the end of 2025, but have also strengthened its relationship with Chinese regulators, paving the way for future approvals and operational advancements.

Griffin Mining COO Sells Entire Shareholding

Griffin Mining Limited announced that its Chief Operating Officer, John Steel, has sold a total of 200,000 ordinary shares in the company on the London Stock Exchange’s Alternative Investment Market. The transactions, which took place on November 4th and 6th, 2025, resulted in John Steel no longer holding any interest in Griffin’s share capital. This move may impact the company’s stock perception among investors and stakeholders, as it involves a significant sale by a key executive.

Griffin Mining Reduces Share Count with Recent Buyback

Griffin Mining Limited announced the purchase and cancellation of 20,000 of its own ordinary shares at a price of 185 pence per share. This transaction reduces the total number of shares in issue to 176,610,171, which shareholders should use as the new denominator for calculating their interests in the company.

Griffin Mining Reduces Share Count with Recent Buyback

Griffin Mining Limited has announced the purchase and cancellation of 20,000 of its own ordinary shares at a price of 185 pence per share. This transaction reduces the total number of shares in issue to 176,630,171, which shareholders should now use as the denominator for calculating their interests in the company.

Griffin Mining Corrects Share Dealings Disclosure

Griffin Mining Limited announced a correction to a previous disclosure regarding share dealings by its Chief Operating Officer, John Steel. The correction clarified that Steel sold 50,000 shares at 180 pence per share, rather than purchasing them. This transaction leaves Steel with a 0.1% stake in the company, reflecting a minor adjustment in insider holdings, which is unlikely to significantly impact the company’s market position or stakeholder interests.

Griffin Mining COO Sells Shares Amid Market Speculation

Griffin Mining Limited announced that its Chief Operating Officer, John Steel, sold 50,000 ordinary shares at 180 pence per share, retaining an interest in 200,000 shares, which represents 0.1% of the company’s issued share capital. This transaction may impact stakeholders’ perceptions of the company’s stock value and management’s confidence in its future performance.

Griffin Mining Completes Share Buyback, Adjusts Capital Structure

Griffin Mining Limited has announced the results of its share buyback program, acquiring 7,531,308 ordinary shares at a total cost of £14,610,737.52 through a reverse accelerated bookbuild. This move reduces the company’s issued ordinary share capital to 176,672,173 shares, impacting the voting rights and shareholding percentages of directors and substantial shareholders. The buyback includes related party transactions with substantial shareholders Richard Griffiths and Overbrook Management, deemed fair and reasonable by the company’s directors.

Griffin Mining Completes £14.6 Million Share Buyback

Griffin Mining Limited has announced the completion of a share buyback program through a reverse accelerated bookbuild, acquiring over 7.5 million ordinary shares at 194 pence each, totaling approximately £14.6 million. This buyback, which includes transactions with substantial shareholders, will result in the cancellation of these shares, reducing the company’s issued share capital and affecting the voting rights. The move is considered fair and reasonable by the company’s directors, excluding those involved in the buyback, and reflects a strategic effort to manage the company’s share capital and enhance shareholder value.

Griffin Mining Announces Strategic Share Buyback

Griffin Mining Limited has announced a share buyback via a reverse accelerated bookbuild, aiming to purchase up to 10 million Ordinary Shares, which constitutes 5.4% of the company’s shares. The buyback, managed by Panmure Liberum Ltd, is intended to reduce the company’s share capital and enhance earnings per share, reflecting a strategic move to benefit shareholders and strengthen the company’s financial standing.

Griffin Mining Launches New Share Buyback Program

Griffin Mining Limited has announced the launch of a new share buyback program via a reverse accelerated bookbuild (RABB Buyback) following limited activity in its existing buyback program. The company has engaged Panmure Liberum Ltd to execute the RABB Buyback, aiming to repurchase up to 10 million ordinary shares, which represents 5.4% of its total shares, with a budget of up to $20 million. This strategic move is intended to reduce the company’s share capital and enhance earnings per share, reflecting a positive outlook on shareholder value.

Griffin Mining to Temporarily Reduce Throughput Amid Safety Initiative

Griffin Mining Limited has announced a temporary reduction in operational throughput by approximately 110,000 tonnes from September to December 2025, as requested by Chinese regulatory authorities to support a safety initiative. Despite this reduction, the company expects its full-year financial results to align with management expectations due to rising gold and zinc prices. The initiative is crucial for obtaining necessary permits for future expansions and maintaining good relations with Chinese regulators.

Griffin Mining Reports Recovery and Future Prospects Amid Revenue Decline

Griffin Mining Limited reported its unaudited interim results for the first half of 2025, highlighting a significant recovery in production during the second quarter after a complete shutdown in late 2024. Despite a 25.7% decrease in revenue compared to the same period in 2024, the company achieved a gross profit of $25.062 million, driven by historically high gold prices which contributed to 46.5% of gross revenues. The company plans to discontinue quarterly trading results due to variability in production, focusing instead on half-yearly and annual results. The upcoming commissioning of Zone II at the Caijiaying Mine is anticipated to further enhance production capabilities.