Dunelm Group (GB:DNLM)
LSE:DNLM
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Dunelm Group
(LSE:DNLM)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
843.00 p
▲(4.79% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/10/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial performance and a constructive earnings outlook (consensus-aligned PBT guidance and lower CapEx) alongside attractive valuation (low P/E and high yield). These positives are offset by weak technical momentum (price below key moving averages, negative MACD) and financial risk flags from leverage and declining free cash flow growth.
Positive Factors
High gross margin & private‑label mix
A sustained gross margin above 50% combined with a high private‑label mix indicates durable pricing power and supply control across core categories. This supports long‑term product margin sustainability, enabling reinvestment in omnichannel and cushioning cost pressures while preserving category profitability.
Negative Factors
High financial leverage
A debt‑to‑equity ratio above 3 indicates material leverage that constrains financial flexibility over the medium term. Elevated leverage increases interest and refinancing risk, limiting capacity to absorb margin shocks or fund strategic investments if cash generation weakens.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High gross margin & private‑label mix
A sustained gross margin above 50% combined with a high private‑label mix indicates durable pricing power and supply control across core categories. This supports long‑term product margin sustainability, enabling reinvestment in omnichannel and cushioning cost pressures while preserving category profitability.
Read all positive factors
Dunelm Group (DNLM) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£1.62B
Dividend Yield3.99%
Average Volume (3M)346.18K
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.7
Beta (1Y)1.08
Revenue Growth3.78%
EPS Growth3.29%
CountryUK
Employees12,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.42
Shares Outstanding201,313,030
10 Day Avg. Volume246,141
30 Day Avg. Volume346,178
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio5.79
Price to Book (P/B)20.30
Price to Sales (P/S)1.36
P/FCF Ratio10.93
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£1,199.50Price Target Upside49.10% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.78
Revenue Forecast (FY)£1.83B
Dunelm Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Dunelm Group plc retails homewares in the United Kingdom. The company offers furniture for bedroom, living room, dining room, and office; sofas and chairs; bean bags; bed frames, mattresses, storage beds, divan bases, and headboards, as well as ki...
How the Company Makes Money
Dunelm makes money primarily by retailing homewares and furniture products to consumers in the UK. Its core revenue stream is the sale of goods across a wide home category assortment (e.g., furniture, soft furnishings, window treatments, bedding, ...
Dunelm Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 08, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced clear operational and financial progress with near-term headwinds. Highlights include steady H1 sales growth (3.6%), a 60bp gross margin improvement to 53.4%, stronger cash generation (GBP 171m FCF), increased market share (7.9%), higher CSAT (+2.6ppt) and digital engagement (41% participation), plus decisive strategic actions (new CCO hire, app launch, range and store initiatives). Lowlights were an H1 PBT decline to GBP 114m (down GBP 9m), higher operating costs (+GBP 32m YoY), softer Q2 trading, a furniture forecasting availability lapse and a temporary working capital timing benefit of GBP 93m. Management communicated clear remediation steps, productivity levers and confidence in delivering full-year PBT in line with consensus while moderating CapEx, which supports a constructive near-to-medium term outlook.Positive Updates
Half-Year Sales Growth
Group sales grew 3.6% year-on-year to GBP 926m in H1, with Q1 up 6.2% and Q2 up 1.6%.
Negative Updates
Profit and EPS Decline
Profit before tax was GBP 114m, down GBP 9m year-on-year; diluted EPS fell from 45p to 41.7p.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Half-Year Sales Growth
Group sales grew 3.6% year-on-year to GBP 926m in H1, with Q1 up 6.2% and Q2 up 1.6%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance: management expects full‑year profit before tax in line with market consensus, an effective tax rate about 50–100bps above the headline corporation tax rate, and a reduced FY26 CapEx target of ~£40m (down from ~£50m), with broadly neutral working capital at year end; they expect H2 operating‑cost inflation to moderate materially as productivity accelerates (including self‑serve checkouts in >100 stores by year‑end), a continuing foreign‑exchange tailwind into the remainder of the year, and confidence in delivering consensus PBT despite Q2 softness. Key H1 metrics referenced alongside this guidance include sales +3.6% to £926m (Q1 +6.2%, Q2 +1.6%), gross margin 53.4% (+60bps), PBT £114m (‑£9m YoY), EPS 41.7p (from 45p), headline free cash flow £171.4m, headline net cash £13m (underlying net debt ~£80m after a £93m payables timing variance), cash conversion 65%, digital participation 41% (+2pp), H1 net operating costs £375m (+£32m), interim dividend 17p (+3%) and a special dividend of 25p (plus a buyback programme of up to 1.6m shares).Dunelm Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
75
Positive
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.80B | 1.77B | 1.71B | 1.64B | 1.58B | 1.34B |
| Gross Profit | 911.10M | 928.30M | 883.30M | 741.80M | 730.30M | 611.40M |
| EBITDA | 265.00M | 251.20M | 295.90M | 278.20M | 297.10M | 241.60M |
| Net Income | 149.50M | 156.30M | 151.20M | 151.90M | 171.20M | 128.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 779.20M | 741.50M | 682.00M | 696.80M | 737.90M | 766.70M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 46.30M | 30.00M | 23.40M | 46.30M | 30.20M | 128.60M |
| Total Debt | 287.60M | 377.70M | 326.60M | 334.10M | 330.90M | 293.30M |
| Total Liabilities | 615.60M | 622.70M | 544.10M | 559.30M | 559.60M | 485.50M |
| Stockholders Equity | 163.60M | 118.80M | 137.90M | 137.50M | 178.30M | 281.20M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 202.80M | 220.70M | 199.90M | 217.70M | 225.70M | 167.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 241.90M | 255.90M | 232.30M | 239.50M | 249.70M | 183.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -51.50M | -65.90M | -38.30M | -21.80M | -41.70M | -15.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -199.50M | -183.00M | -217.30M | -202.20M | -307.50M | -126.80M |
Dunelm Group Technical Analysis
Negative
804.50
Price Trends
881.24
Negative
966.04
Negative
1021.62
Negative
Market Momentum
-33.01
Positive
36.01
Neutral
23.77
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:DNLM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 804.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 832.86, below the 50-day MA of 881.24, and below the 200-day MA of 1021.62, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -33.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:DNLM.
Dunelm Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | £2.80B | 2.38 | 21.64% | ― | -6.43% | 52.93% | |
73 Outperform | £1.33B | 23.58 | 5.88% | 1.18% | 9.51% | -31.96% | |
65 Neutral | £1.62B | 6.72 | 121.78% | 3.99% | 3.78% | 3.29% | |
63 Neutral | £480.59M | 11.70 | 7.52% | ― | 13.21% | -54.35% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
56 Neutral | £34.87M | -3.95 | 15.03% | ― | 16.66% | 147.92% | |
53 Neutral | £49.85M | -28.65 | -10.09% | 2.09% | -5.97% | 14.75% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
GB:DNLM
Dunelm Group
804.50
-30.04
-3.60%
GB:FRAS
Frasers Group
650.50
68.50
11.77%
GB:AO
AO World
86.50
-8.00
-8.47%
GB:CURY
Currys plc
127.70
27.47
27.40%
GB:MRK
Marks Electrical Group Plc
47.50
-10.87
-18.62%
GB:PROC
ProCook Group PLC
32.00
11.00
52.38%
Dunelm Group Corporate Events
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Dunelm Updates Market on Total Voting Rights and Share Capital
Neutral
Apr 1, 2026
Dunelm Group has confirmed that its issued ordinary share capital stands at 203,426,835 shares, of which 2,113,796 are held in treasury, leaving 201,313,039 ordinary shares carrying voting rights. This updated share count provides the key denomina...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Dunelm CEO Boosts Equity Stake Through Nil-Cost Option Exercise
Neutral
Mar 31, 2026
Dunelm Group has disclosed that Chief Executive Officer Clodagh (Clo) Moriarty exercised 56,478 nil-cost share options granted under the company’s 2014 Long Term Incentive Plan, which were awarded as a buy-out to compensate her for forfeited...
Stock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Dunelm Completes Share Buyback, Updates Voting Share Capital
Neutral
Mar 10, 2026
Dunelm Group plc has completed its latest share buyback programme with the purchase of 4,241 ordinary shares on 9 March 2026 at a volume-weighted average price of £9.03 per share. The shares, acquired via Barclays, will be held in treasury to...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Dunelm Advances Buyback With Treasury Share Purchase
Positive
Mar 9, 2026
Dunelm Group plc has continued executing its recently announced share buyback programme, repurchasing 104,265 ordinary shares on 6 March at a volume-weighted average price of £9.40, with Barclays acting as broker. The shares will be held in t...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Dunelm Tightens Free Float With Latest Share Buyback for Treasury
Positive
Mar 6, 2026
Dunelm Group plc has continued its previously announced share buyback programme, repurchasing 103,394 ordinary shares on 5 March 2026 at a volume-weighted average price of 944 pence, with Barclays acting as broker. The shares will be held in treas...
Stock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Dunelm Buys Back Over 100,000 Shares for Treasury in Ongoing Programme
Neutral
Mar 5, 2026
Dunelm Group plc has continued its previously announced share buyback programme, repurchasing 102,903 ordinary shares on 4 March 2026 at a volume-weighted average price of £9.46, with Barclays executing the trades. The shares will be held in ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Dunelm Adds to Treasury Stock with Latest Share Buyback
Positive
Mar 4, 2026
Dunelm Group plc has continued its previously announced share buyback programme, repurchasing 100,426 ordinary shares on 3 March 2026 at a volume-weighted average price of £9.63, with Barclays acting as broker. The shares will be held in trea...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Dunelm Buys Back 94,451 Shares for Treasury in Ongoing Capital Return
Positive
Mar 3, 2026
Dunelm Group has repurchased 94,451 of its own ordinary shares as part of its ongoing share buyback programme, paying a volume-weighted average price of 999 pence per share, with Barclays acting as broker. The shares will be held in treasury to me...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Dunelm Updates Share Capital and Voting Rights for Disclosure Purposes
Neutral
Mar 2, 2026
Dunelm Group plc has confirmed that, as of 27 February 2026, it had 203,426,835 issued ordinary shares of 1p each, of which 1,474,204 were held in treasury, leaving 201,952,631 ordinary shares in circulation with voting rights. This updated share ...
Stock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Dunelm Reduces Free-Float with Latest Share Buyback for Treasury
Neutral
Mar 2, 2026
Dunelm Group has repurchased 115,899 of its own ordinary shares on 27 February 2026 as part of an ongoing share buyback programme, paying a volume-weighted average price of about £10.04 per share via Barclays. The shares will be held in treas...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Dunelm Buys Back 111,814 Shares for Treasury Use
Positive
Feb 27, 2026
Dunelm Group plc has repurchased 111,814 of its own ordinary shares on 26 February 2026 under its recently announced buyback programme, paying a volume-weighted average price of £9.93 per share, with trades executed by Barclays. The acquired ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Dunelm Buys Back 113,000 Shares for Treasury in Ongoing Capital Management Drive
Positive
Feb 26, 2026
Dunelm Group plc has repurchased 113,000 of its own ordinary shares on 25 February 2026 under its ongoing share buyback programme, at a volume-weighted average price of £9.95, with Barclays acting as broker. The shares will be held in treasur...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Dunelm tightens equity base with latest share buyback
Positive
Feb 25, 2026
Dunelm Group has continued to execute its share buyback programme, repurchasing 112,643 ordinary shares on 24 February 2026 at a volume-weighted average price of £9.93, with Barclays acting as broker. The shares will be held in treasury to me...
Stock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Dunelm Tightens Free Float with Further Treasury Share Buyback
Positive
Feb 24, 2026
Dunelm Group has continued to execute its previously announced share buyback programme, repurchasing 105,229 ordinary shares on 23 February at prices between 975p and 995p, with a volume-weighted average price of 984p. The shares, acquired via Bar...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Dunelm Buys Back 105,000 Shares for Treasury in Ongoing Capital Plan
Positive
Feb 24, 2026
Dunelm Group has continued its recently launched share buyback programme, repurchasing 105,229 ordinary shares on 23 February 2026 at a volume-weighted average price of 984 pence, with Barclays acting as broker. The shares will be held in treasury...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Dunelm CFO Exercises Sharesave Options, Retains Shares Under Policy
Positive
Feb 24, 2026
Dunelm Group plc has disclosed that its Chief Financial Officer, Karen Witts, has exercised 2,698 options over ordinary shares in the company at an exercise price of 667 pence per share. The options were granted in November 2022 under the Dunelm G...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Dunelm Adds to Buyback, Tightens Free Float With New Treasury Shares
Positive
Feb 23, 2026
Dunelm Group has continued execution of its recently launched share buyback, repurchasing 107,222 ordinary shares on 20 February at a volume‑weighted average price of £9.79, with Barclays acting as broker. The shares will be held in tre...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Dunelm Buys Back 107,420 Shares for Treasury in Ongoing Capital Management Drive
Positive
Feb 20, 2026
Dunelm Group plc has repurchased 107,420 ordinary shares at a volume-weighted average price of £9.76 as part of its recently announced share buyback programme, with Barclays executing the transactions on the London Stock Exchange. The shares ...
Stock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Dunelm Buys Back Over 100,000 Shares for Treasury in Ongoing Programme
Neutral
Feb 19, 2026
Dunelm Group has continued executing its recently announced share buyback programme, repurchasing 107,456 ordinary shares on 18 February at a volume-weighted average price of £9.74, with Barclays acting as broker. The shares will be held in t...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Dunelm Advances Buyback With 105,460-Share Repurchase
Neutral
Feb 18, 2026
Dunelm Group has repurchased 105,460 ordinary shares at a volume-weighted average price of £9.74 as part of its recently launched share buyback programme, with Barclays executing the trades. The shares will be held in treasury for potential u...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Dunelm Buys Back 104,000 Shares for Treasury in Capital Management Move
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
Dunelm Group has repurchased 104,177 ordinary shares at a volume-weighted average price of £9.74 as part of its recently announced share buyback programme, with Barclays executing the trades. The shares will be held in treasury to meet employ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Dunelm Launches £17m Share Purchase Programme to Fund Employee Awards
Positive
Feb 16, 2026
Dunelm Group has mandated Barclays Bank to purchase up to 1.6 million of its ordinary shares, with a maximum aggregate spend of £17 million, in the period running up to the company’s 2026 annual general meeting. The shares bought under ...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Dunelm Discloses PDMR Share Purchase by Senior Manager
Positive
Feb 13, 2026
Dunelm Group has disclosed a management share dealing involving Person Discharging Managerial Responsibility Luisa Wright, who purchased 2,442 ordinary shares in the company. The transaction, executed on the London Stock Exchange at a price of ...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Dunelm lifts sales and margins as it grows digital share despite Q2 slowdown
Positive
Feb 10, 2026
Dunelm Group reported a solid first-half performance for the 26 weeks to 27 December 2025, with total sales up 3.6% to £926.3m and digital sales rising to 41% of revenue, helping it gain 20 basis points of market share in the UK homewares and...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Dunelm Confirms Total Voting Rights and Share Capital Structure
Neutral
Feb 2, 2026
Dunelm Group plc has confirmed that its issued ordinary share capital totals 203,426,835 shares with a nominal value of 1p each, of which 791,338 shares are held in treasury, leaving 202,635,497 ordinary shares carrying voting rights. The company ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Dunelm Delivers Solid First Half but Tempers Profit Outlook Amid Tough UK Retail Climate
Neutral
Jan 15, 2026
Dunelm Group reported a solid first half in a difficult UK retail environment, with total sales rising 3.6% year-on-year to £926m and digital sales increasing to 41% of the mix. While strong trading in the first quarter was followed by a soft...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Dunelm Delivers Solid First Half but Warns on Full-Year Profit Amid Tough Trading
Negative
Jan 15, 2026
Dunelm reported a solid first-half performance in a tough UK retail environment, with total sales up 3.6% year-on-year to £926m and digital sales rising to 41% of the total, while gross margin improved by 60 basis points, helped by foreign ex...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.