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Diageo plc (GB:DGE)
LSE:DGE

Diageo (DGE) AI Stock Analysis

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GB:DGE

Diageo

(LSE:DGE)

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Neutral 68 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
1,821.00p
▲(8.49% Upside)
Diageo's overall stock score is driven by strong corporate events and a solid dividend yield. However, challenges in profitability margins, cash flow stability, and bearish technical indicators weigh on the score.
Positive Factors
Strong Brand Portfolio
A strong brand portfolio provides Diageo with a competitive advantage, allowing it to maintain market leadership and pricing power in the premium spirits segment.
Operational Efficiency
Operational efficiency supports sustainable margins and profitability, enabling Diageo to effectively manage costs and enhance shareholder value over time.
Global Market Reach
Strategic partnerships expand Diageo's global distribution network, increasing sales opportunities and market penetration in diverse regions.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage can increase financial risk, potentially limiting Diageo's ability to invest in growth opportunities and weather economic downturns.
Profitability Challenges
Decreasing net profit margins may signal challenges in maintaining cost control or pricing power, impacting long-term earnings potential.
Cash Flow Volatility
Volatile cash flow can affect Diageo's ability to fund operations, invest in growth, and return capital to shareholders, posing a risk to financial stability.

Diageo (DGE) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Diageo Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionDiageo plc is a global leader in alcoholic beverages, headquartered in London, England. The company operates in various segments, including spirits, beer, and wine, with a diverse portfolio of well-known brands such as Johnnie Walker, Guinness, Smirnoff, and Tanqueray. Diageo's products are distributed across more than 180 countries, making it a significant player in the global market for premium alcoholic drinks. The company focuses on innovation, sustainability, and consumer trends to maintain its competitive edge in the industry.
How the Company Makes MoneyDiageo generates revenue primarily through the sale of its alcoholic beverages, which include spirits, beer, and wine. The company's revenue model is based on both direct sales to retailers and wholesalers and indirect sales through distributors in various markets. Key revenue streams come from its extensive brand portfolio, with top-selling brands contributing significantly to overall earnings. Diageo also benefits from strategic partnerships with distributors and retailers, enabling broader market access and enhanced brand visibility. Additionally, the company's focus on premiumization and innovation allows it to capture higher price points, further boosting profitability. Factors such as increasing global demand for premium spirits and effective marketing strategies also contribute to Diageo's financial performance.

Diageo Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted continued growth in organic net sales and market share gains, particularly in the Tequila and Guinness segments. However, challenges remain with declining Scotch sales, a drop in organic operating profit, and significant uncertainty due to newly imposed tariffs. The decline in EPS and increased leverage ratio further contribute to a cautious outlook.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Return to Organic Net Sales Growth
Despite challenging macro environments, the company achieved a 1% growth in organic net sales, with growth in four out of five regions, including North America.
Market Share Gains
The company held or gained market share in 65% of net sales in measured markets, with strong performance in the U.S., Europe, and Greater China.
Tequila Segment Growth
Tequila organic net sales were up 21% in the half, with Don Julio leading the growth and maintaining share leadership in the Tequila category.
Guinness Performance
Guinness achieved its 8th consecutive half of double-digit growth, delivering 17% organic net sales growth in the half.
Positive Free Cash Flow
Free cash flow increased by $125 million to approximately $1.7 billion, driven by working capital management.
Negative Updates
Scotch Segment Decline
Scotch organic net sales declined by 5%, driven by softer industry performance in North America and Greater China, with down trading within the category.
Organic Operating Profit Decline
Organic operating profit in the first half declined 1.2%, primarily due to increased overheads and strategic investments.
Impact of Tariffs
The introduction of 25% tariffs on goods imported into the U.S. from Canada and Mexico creates uncertainty, with potential significant impact on costs, particularly for Tequila and Canadian Whiskey.
EPS Decline
Pre-exceptional EPS declined by almost 10% to $0.977 per share, impacted by the performance of Moet Hennessy and unfavorable foreign exchange.
Increased Leverage Ratio
The leverage ratio increased to 3.1x, above the target range of 2.5x to 3x, mainly due to share buyback impact and lower EBITDA year-on-year.
Company Guidance
In the first half of fiscal year 2025, Diageo reported a 1% growth in organic net sales, with momentum seen in four out of five regions, including North America. The company held or gained market share in 65% of its net sales in measured markets. Despite a challenging macroeconomic environment, Diageo demonstrated resilience, particularly in regions like Europe and Africa, and saw a modest improvement in the Latin America and Caribbean regions. The U.S. market showed a slight return to growth, driven by innovations such as smaller pack sizes and strong performances from brands like Crown Royal and Don Julio. However, the company faced challenges with a 5% decline in Scotch sales and pressures from recent U.S. tariff announcements, which could impact future guidance. The company plans to strengthen its balance sheet, focus on sustainable top-line growth, and improve operating leverage while maintaining a robust investment-grade balance sheet.

Diageo Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Diageo shows strong revenue growth and operational efficiency, but faces challenges with profitability margins and cash flow stability. The high leverage requires careful management to maintain financial health.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Diageo's income statement shows a strong gross profit margin and consistent revenue growth over the years, with a notable 18.3% growth in the most recent year. However, the net profit margin has decreased from previous years, indicating some pressure on profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy, reflecting operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet indicates a high debt-to-equity ratio, which suggests significant leverage. However, the company maintains a solid return on equity, demonstrating effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio is moderate, indicating a balanced asset structure.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
Diageo's cash flow statement reveals a decline in free cash flow growth, which could be a concern for future liquidity. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is stable, but the free cash flow to net income ratio has shown some volatility, indicating potential cash flow management challenges.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue20.33B20.25B20.27B20.55B15.45B12.73B
Gross Profit12.22B12.17B12.20B12.27B9.48B7.70B
EBITDA4.93B6.36B7.24B8.06B4.93B4.28B
Net Income2.36B2.35B3.87B4.45B3.94B2.66B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets49.32B49.32B45.47B44.88B36.52B31.95B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.65B2.65B1.13B1.81B2.54B2.87B
Total Debt24.40B24.40B21.50B20.79B16.02B14.73B
Total Liabilities36.14B36.14B33.40B33.17B27.00B23.52B
Stockholders Equity11.09B11.09B10.03B9.86B7.80B6.90B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow2.69B2.69B4.55B4.33B2.84B3.03B
Operating Cash Flow4.30B4.30B6.07B5.74B3.94B3.65B
Investing Cash Flow-1.72B-1.72B-1.59B-1.43B-1.34B-1.09B
Financing Cash Flow-1.49B-1.49B-3.11B-3.04B-3.26B-2.79B

Diageo Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price1678.50
Price Trends
50DMA
1742.87
Negative
100DMA
1807.32
Negative
200DMA
1881.11
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-23.03
Negative
RSI
45.88
Neutral
STOCH
65.71
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:DGE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1678.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1688.48, below the 50-day MA of 1742.87, and below the 200-day MA of 1881.11, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -23.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:DGE.

Diageo Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
£14.05B18.3428.56%1.95%6.00%42.42%
78
Outperform
£2.73B18.4715.07%1.49%6.96%28.47%
71
Outperform
£92.04B30.476.03%5.64%-2.24%
70
Outperform
£720.89M14.8015.73%2.13%3.97%34.09%
68
Neutral
£37.32B20.5022.29%4.73%-2.83%-40.42%
65
Neutral
£1.68B49.472.48%3.54%26.84%-81.73%
62
Neutral
$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:DGE
Diageo
1,678.50
-714.15
-29.85%
GB:BAG
AG Barr
648.00
55.92
9.44%
GB:BATS
British American Tobacco
4,236.00
1,506.58
55.20%
GB:CCH
Coca Cola HBC
3,864.00
1,215.66
45.90%
GB:CWK
Cranswick
5,110.00
345.76
7.26%
GB:TATE
Tate & Lyle
380.40
-253.30
-39.97%

Diageo Corporate Events

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Diageo Announces Sterling Equivalent of Final Dividend
Neutral
Nov 20, 2025

Diageo has announced the Sterling equivalent of its final dividend at 47.91 pence per ordinary share, following shareholder approval. This conversion was based on the exchange rate achieved through forward contracts for Sterling currency, with the dividend payment scheduled for 4 December 2025. This announcement reflects Diageo’s financial strategies and currency management, potentially impacting shareholder returns and market perception.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Diageo Implements Share Incentive Plan for Key Executives
Positive
Nov 11, 2025

Diageo announced transactions related to its 2001 Share Incentive Plan, where partnership shares were purchased, and matching shares were awarded to key executives, including the Interim CEO and members of the Executive Committee. This move, compliant with the UK Market Abuse Regulation, reflects Diageo’s commitment to aligning management interests with shareholder value, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder confidence.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Diageo Chair Acquires Shares, Signaling Confidence
Positive
Nov 10, 2025

Diageo announced that Sir John Manzoni, the Chair of the company, purchased shares under an arrangement with the company. This transaction, conducted on the London Stock Exchange, reflects the company’s adherence to UK Market Abuse Regulation and may indicate confidence in the company’s future performance.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Diageo Appoints Sir Dave Lewis as New CEO
Positive
Nov 10, 2025

Diageo has appointed Sir Dave Lewis as its new CEO, effective January 1, 2026. With a strong background in leading global consumer businesses, Lewis is expected to guide Diageo through market challenges and opportunities, enhancing shareholder value. His previous leadership roles at Tesco and Unilever, along with his current positions at Haleon and PepsiCo, underscore his capability to drive growth and strategic development for Diageo.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsStock BuybackDividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Diageo PLC AGM: All Resolutions Passed, Reinforcing Market Position
Positive
Nov 6, 2025

At its Annual General Meeting on November 6, 2025, Diageo PLC successfully passed all resolutions outlined in the meeting notice. Key outcomes included the approval of the directors’ remuneration report, the declaration of a final dividend, and the re-appointment of several directors. The adoption of the Diageo 2025 Share Value Plan and the authority to purchase own ordinary shares were also approved, indicating a strategic focus on shareholder value and corporate governance. These decisions are likely to reinforce Diageo’s market position and influence stakeholder confidence.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Diageo Reports Flat Q1 Sales Amid Challenges in Key Markets
Neutral
Nov 6, 2025

Diageo reported flat organic net sales growth for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, with a 2.9% increase in volume offset by a negative price/mix impact of 2.8%. The company faced challenges in the Chinese white spirits market and a softer US consumer environment, which affected overall performance. Despite these challenges, Diageo is advancing its Accelerate programme aimed at creating a more agile operating model, with cost savings of approximately $625 million expected over the next three years. The company remains committed to delivering around $3 billion in free cash flow for fiscal 2026 and plans to return to its target leverage ratio by fiscal 2028. Diageo is focusing on driving efficiencies and adapting to changing consumer environments to enhance its market positioning.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Diageo Announces Total Voting Rights and Capital Structure
Neutral
Nov 3, 2025

Diageo plc has announced its total voting rights and capital structure as of October 31, 2025. The company reported 2,432,425,480 issued Ordinary Shares, with 206,023,016 held in Treasury, resulting in 2,226,402,464 voting rights. This information is crucial for shareholders to determine their interest in the company under the FCA’s Disclosure Guidelines and Transparency Rules.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Diageo Announces Share Transactions Under 2001 Incentive Plan
Neutral
Oct 13, 2025

Diageo plc announced transactions related to its 2001 Share Incentive Plan, involving the purchase of partnership shares and the award of matching shares. This move, disclosed in compliance with the UK Market Abuse Regulation, involves several key executives and reflects Diageo’s commitment to aligning employee incentives with company performance, potentially impacting stakeholder confidence and market perception.

Other
Diageo Chair Purchases Shares, Signaling Confidence in Market Position
Positive
Oct 10, 2025

Diageo plc announced that Sir John Manzoni, the Chair of the company, purchased 358 ordinary shares at £18.33 each on the London Stock Exchange. This transaction, disclosed in accordance with UK Market Abuse Regulation, highlights the confidence of the company’s leadership in its market position and future prospects.

Private Placements and Financing
Diageo Finance Issues EUR 1 Billion in Fixed-Rate Instruments
Neutral
Oct 3, 2025

Diageo Finance plc has announced the issuance of EUR 1 billion in fixed-rate instruments under its European Debt Issuance Programme, guaranteed by Diageo plc. This issuance, consisting of two tranches due in 2032 and 2037, reflects Diageo’s strategic financial management and may impact its market positioning by potentially enhancing liquidity and financial flexibility.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Diageo Announces Total Voting Rights and Capital Structure
Neutral
Oct 1, 2025

Diageo plc has announced its total voting rights and capital structure as of September 30, 2025. The company reported an issued capital of 2,432,425,480 Ordinary Shares, with 206,037,878 shares held in Treasury, resulting in 2,226,387,602 voting rights available for shareholder calculations under regulatory guidelines.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Diageo Prices €1 Billion in Euro-Denominated Bonds
Positive
Oct 1, 2025

Diageo has successfully priced €1 billion in fixed rate euro-denominated bonds as part of its European Debt Issuance Programme. The issuance, divided into two series of €500 million bonds, is aimed at general corporate purposes and involves major financial institutions as lead managers. This strategic move is likely to enhance Diageo’s financial flexibility and solidify its market position, while adhering to relevant regulatory frameworks.

Shareholder Meetings
Diageo Announces 2025 AGM Details
Neutral
Sep 30, 2025

Diageo has announced the availability of the Notice of its 2025 Annual General Meeting (AGM), scheduled for November 6, 2025, in London. The AGM will be conducted as a hybrid event, allowing both physical and electronic participation, which reflects Diageo’s commitment to accessibility and shareholder engagement.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Diageo Appoints John Rishton as Non-Executive Director
Positive
Sep 16, 2025

Diageo has announced the appointment of John Rishton as a Non-Executive Director, effective November 1, 2025. Rishton brings over 40 years of business experience, having held executive roles in major companies like Rolls Royce and British Airways. His extensive background in consumer and retail businesses is expected to contribute to Diageo’s strategy for sustainable growth and enhanced shareholder returns.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Diageo Announces Executive Share Transactions Under Incentive Plan
Neutral
Sep 11, 2025

Diageo plc announced transactions related to its 2001 Share Incentive Plan, involving the purchase of partnership shares and the awarding of matching shares to key executives. These transactions, conducted on the London Stock Exchange and outside trading venues, reflect Diageo’s ongoing commitment to incentivize its leadership team, potentially impacting the company’s operational dynamics and stakeholder interests.

Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Diageo Chair Sir John Manzoni Purchases Company Shares
Neutral
Sep 10, 2025

Diageo plc announced that Sir John Manzoni, the company’s Chair, has purchased shares under an arrangement with the company. This transaction, disclosed in compliance with UK Market Abuse Regulation, reflects a strategic move that could influence investor confidence and market perception of Diageo’s leadership stability.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Diageo Aligns Leadership Incentives with Long-Term Growth Strategy
Positive
Sep 9, 2025

Diageo has announced the granting of various share awards to its directors and key managerial personnel under the Diageo 2023 Long Term Incentive Plan and the Diageo Exceptional Stock Award Plan. These awards, which include options and restricted stock units, are subject to performance conditions and are part of the company’s strategy to align the interests of its leadership with long-term shareholder value. This move is expected to strengthen Diageo’s market position by incentivizing its leadership to drive performance and growth, potentially impacting stakeholders positively by enhancing the company’s operational focus and strategic execution.

Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Diageo Awards Freeshares to Key Executives Under Incentive Plan
Neutral
Sep 9, 2025

Diageo plc has announced the award of Freeshares under its 2001 Share Incentive Plan to several key executives, including the Interim Chief Executive and members of the Executive Committee. This move, disclosed in compliance with the UK Market Abuse Regulation, reflects Diageo’s commitment to aligning the interests of its leadership with those of its shareholders, potentially impacting the company’s governance and stakeholder relations.

Executive/Board Changes
Diageo Awards Restricted Stock Units to Interim CEO
Neutral
Sep 9, 2025

Diageo PLC announced a conditional award of Restricted Stock Units to Nik Jhangiani, the Interim Chief Executive, under the Diageo Deferred Bonus Share Plan. This award, which is part of Jhangiani’s Annual Incentive Plan for fiscal 2025, will vest on June 30, 2028, reflecting Diageo’s commitment to aligning executive incentives with long-term company performance.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 07, 2025