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BP plc (GB:BP.A)
LSE:BP.A
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BP plc (BP.A) AI Stock Analysis

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GB:BP.A

BP plc

(LSE:BP.A)

Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
159.00p
▲(7.43%Upside)
BP's strong operational performance and strategic achievements highlighted in the earnings call are the primary contributors to the score. Financial performance remains solid but is offset by net income volatility and revenue declines. Technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, and valuation metrics are mixed with an absence of P/E ratio data.

BP plc (BP.A) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

BP plc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBP p.l.c. provides carbon products and services. The company operates through Gas & Low Carbon Energy, Oil Production & Operations, and Customers & Products segments. It engages in the production of natural gas, and integrated gas and power; trading of gas; operation of onshore and offshore wind power, as well as hydrogen and carbon capture and storage facilities; trading and marketing of renewable and non-renewable power; and production of crude oil. In addition, the company involved in convenience and retail fuel, EV charging, Castrol lubricant, aviation, B2B, and midstream businesses; refining and oil trading; and bioenergy business. Further, it engages in power and storage, digital transformation, carbon management, and bio and low carbon related products, as well as energy and environmental commodities and mobility businesses. The company was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyBP plc generates revenue through several key streams. The Exploration and Production segment involves the discovery, extraction, and production of crude oil and natural gas, which are then sold to various markets. The Refining and Marketing segment processes crude oil into refined products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, which are distributed and sold through a network of service stations and third-party retailers. BP also engages in trading activities, buying and selling oil, gas, and refined products to optimize supply and demand imbalances. Additionally, BP is expanding its portfolio in renewable energy investments, including wind, solar, and biofuels, contributing to its revenue growth. The company forms strategic partnerships and joint ventures to enhance its capabilities and market reach, which also play a significant role in its financial performance.

BP plc Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 9.66%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mix of strong operational achievements and strategic progress, counterbalanced by challenges in trading performance and refining margins. While the company has made notable strides in cost reduction and project startups, the issues in gas trading and refining margins pose concerns.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Operational Performance
BP delivered strong operational performance in Q1 2025 with over 96% refining availability and more than 95% upstream plant reliability, supporting record operating efficiency.
Project Startups and Exploration Discoveries
Successfully started three major projects: Cypre in Trinidad, Raven in Egypt, and GTA in Mauritania and Senegal, adding 100 mbd of capacity. Made six exploration discoveries, including a significant one in Namibia.
Cost Reduction Achievements
Achieved $500 million in underlying operating expenditure reduction quarter-on-quarter, as part of a $4 billion to $5 billion cost reduction program.
Divestment Progress
Completed or signed $1.5 billion in divestment agreements year-to-date with expectations of $3 billion to $4 billion in divestments for 2025, with proceeds weighted to the second half.
Negative Updates
Weak Gas Trading Performance
Gas and low carbon segment underperformed primarily due to a weak gas trading result, which was impacted by European regulation changes.
Net Debt Increase
Net debt rose in the quarter primarily due to working capital build, although it is expected to unwind through the year.
Refining Segment Challenges
Despite 96% uptime, the refining segment faced a difficult margin environment, suggesting it is currently loss-making even with strong operational performance.
Company Guidance
In BP's First Quarter 2025 Results Call, a range of performance metrics and strategic updates were discussed. Murray Auchincloss highlighted strong operational performance with over 96% refining availability and more than 95% upstream plant reliability, supporting record operating efficiency. The upstream segment saw the successful start of three major projects, adding a 100 mbd capacity towards a 250 mbd target by 2027. The company made six exploration discoveries, including a significant one in Namibia. Despite a weak gas trading result, the customer and products segment performed strongly, exceeding consensus. BP implemented a $1.5 billion intervention around cash flow for 2025, reducing CAPEX by $0.5 billion to $14.5 billion, with organic CAPEX now below $14 billion for the year. The company also completed or signed $1.5 billion in divestments year-to-date, expecting $3 billion to $4 billion in divestments for the year, with proceeds weighted to the second half. Operating expenditure reduced by $500 million quarter-on-quarter, and the company plans to provide further details on cost reductions in the next quarter's results. Net debt rose due to working capital build, expected to unwind throughout the year. Overall, BP is focused on delivering its ambitious growth plan, maintaining operational efficiency, and optimizing financial resilience.

BP plc Financial Statement Overview

Summary
BP plc demonstrates solid operational efficiency and stable financial structuring, with strong cash flows supporting its operations. However, volatility in net income and recent revenue declines pose potential risks. The company needs to address these challenges to maintain its financial health and growth trajectory.
Income Statement
68
Positive
The income statement shows solid gross profit margins, though there is volatility in net income with recent negative net income in TTM and 2022. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a notable decline in the latest TTM period. EBIT and EBITDA margins remain strong, indicating operational efficiency despite challenges.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
The balance sheet is robust with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting balanced leverage. Equity ratio is stable, indicating a sound financial structure. However, fluctuations in stockholders' equity and liabilities need monitoring for future stability.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals strong operational cash flows with a healthy free cash flow, despite recent declines. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, reflecting efficient cash conversion. However, the decline in free cash flow growth in the TTM period raises concerns.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue189.19B208.35B241.39B157.74B105.94B
Gross Profit30.24B64.06B55.10B22.86B10.18B
EBITDA27.98B43.50B59.47B32.55B14.54B
Net Income381.00M15.24B-1.36B7.57B-20.73B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets282.23B280.29B288.12B287.27B267.65B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments34.52B28.59B29.77B30.96B29.53B
Total Debt71.55B63.08B55.49B69.79B81.93B
Total Liabilities203.91B194.80B205.13B196.83B182.09B
Stockholders Equity59.25B70.28B67.55B75.46B71.25B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow12.00B17.75B28.86B12.72B-144.00M
Operating Cash Flow27.30B32.04B40.93B23.61B12.16B
Investing Cash Flow-13.25B-14.87B-13.71B-5.69B-7.86B
Financing Cash Flow-7.30B-13.36B-28.02B-18.08B3.96B

BP plc Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price148.00
Price Trends
50DMA
148.33
Negative
100DMA
143.01
Positive
200DMA
138.28
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.19
Positive
RSI
42.45
Neutral
STOCH
37.04
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:BP.A, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 148 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 150.00, below the 50-day MA of 148.33, and above the 200-day MA of 138.28, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:BP.A.

BP plc Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (59)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
83
Outperform
£156.02B15.497.41%0.16%-4.09%-20.79%
81
Outperform
£1.72B11.5717.50%0.64%-9.80%-1.98%
79
Outperform
£1.41B10.239.56%2.21%89.44%540.95%
70
Outperform
£3.37B21.62-2.87%5.78%29.33%
67
Neutral
£2.75B15.84-5.65%16.01%1.04%-156.59%
64
Neutral
£61.65B0.64%3.52%
59
Neutral
£7.36B-2.81-10.36%104.87%-1.03%-98.53%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:BP.A
BP plc
148.00
12.68
9.37%
GB:HBR
Harbour Energy
199.30
-71.09
-26.29%
GB:SHEL
Shell (UK)
2,667.50
-0.29
-0.01%
GB:SEPL
SEPLAT Petroleum Development
244.00
63.30
35.03%
GB:ENOG
Energean
922.00
-71.13
-7.16%
GB:ITH
Ithaca Energy PLC
166.40
61.72
58.96%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 25, 2025