BP plc (GB:BP.A)
LSE:BP.A
Top Page
BP plc
(LSE:BP.A)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
159.00 p
▲(5.65% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/18/26
The score is driven primarily by solid cash-flow resilience but pressured/volatile profitability and higher leverage. Earnings-call guidance adds support via disciplined capex, cost cuts, and a deleveraging roadmap, while technical signals are neutral-to-slightly weak and valuation support comes mainly from the ~5.33% dividend yield (P/E not provided).
Positive Factors
Free cash flow strength
BP's step-up to roughly $13bn adjusted FCF in 2025, with operating cash flow near $24.5bn, provides durable internal funding. That cash generation supports dividend funding, disciplined capex, divestments and the targeted deleveraging pathway, improving resilience across commodity cycles.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and obligations
Rising leverage and large absolute debt reduce financial flexibility in a cyclical industry, increasing refinancing and covenant risk. Sizeable total financial obligations (~$58bn reported elsewhere) mean deleveraging must continue to avoid constrained capital allocation during downturns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free cash flow strength
BP's step-up to roughly $13bn adjusted FCF in 2025, with operating cash flow near $24.5bn, provides durable internal funding. That cash generation supports dividend funding, disciplined capex, divestments and the targeted deleveraging pathway, improving resilience across commodity cycles.
Read all positive factors
BP plc (BP.A) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£86.93B
Dividend Yield5.37%
Average Volume (3M)4.62K
Price to Earnings (P/E)1650.4
Beta (1Y)>-0.01
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUK
Employees100,500
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)N/A
Shares Outstanding7,232,838
10 Day Avg. Volume4,635
30 Day Avg. Volume4,620
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-19.42
Price to Book (P/B)1.71
Price to Sales (P/S)0.48
P/FCF Ratio8.05
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
BP plc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
BP p.l.c. provides carbon products and services. The company operates through Gas & Low Carbon Energy, Oil Production & Operations, and Customers & Products segments. It engages in the production of natural gas, and integrated gas and power; tradi...
How the Company Makes Money
BP generates revenue primarily through the exploration and production of oil and natural gas, which involves extracting these resources from various locations worldwide. The company sells crude oil and natural gas to various customers, including r...
BP plc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a strong set of operational and financial improvements — robust free cash flow growth (+~55% price-adjusted), better ROACE (14% vs 12%), disciplined capex, solid project execution (7 major starts, many ahead of schedule), important emissions and reliability outperformance, and meaningful cost savings ($2.8 billion delivered). Offsetting this were material negatives: four workforce fatalities, ~$4 billion of impairments (mainly in transition assets), the suspension of buybacks (reducing near-term shareholder returns), and a still-elevated balance sheet with substantial financial obligations (~$58 billion) requiring further deleveraging. On balance the positive operational delivery, cash generation and concrete actions to strengthen the balance sheet and cost base substantially outweigh the lowlights, although execution risks and transition-asset challenges remain.Positive Updates
Material free cash flow growth
Adjusted free cash flow of around $13 billion in 2025 (price-adjusted), representing ~55% growth versus 2024; operating cash flow for the year was $24.5 billion (operating cash flow plus divestment and other proceeds $30.4 billion).
Negative Updates
Tragic workforce fatalities and safety consequence
Four colleagues were killed in 2025 in the U.S. retail business (roadside incidents), prompting an immediate operational change (permanent stop to roadside assistance next to active traffic lanes) — a major human and reputational loss.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Material free cash flow growth
Adjusted free cash flow of around $13 billion in 2025 (price-adjusted), representing ~55% growth versus 2024; operating cash flow for the year was $24.5 billion (operating cash flow plus divestment and other proceeds $30.4 billion).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The guidance emphasized strengthening the balance sheet and disciplined capital allocation while accelerating cost and operational performance: BP reported adjusted replacement‑cost profit of $7.5bn and generated about $13bn of adjusted free cash flow in 2025 (price‑adjusted ≈ +55% y/y on a $70/bbl basis), operating cash flow $24.5bn (and $30.4bn including divestment/other proceeds), end‑2025 net debt $22.2bn (down $0.8bn y/y) with a net‑debt target of $14–18bn by end‑2027, and total financial obligations of ~ $58bn; 2025 CapEx was $14.5bn (organic $13.6bn) with 2026 CapEx guided to $13–13.5bn. Management suspended buybacks, kept the dividend ($0.0832 per ordinary share) with at least 4% p.a. growth as the first financial priority, and reiterated a $20bn divestment program (>$11bn completed/announced; $5.3bn received in 2025; ~$6bn expected from Castrol; $3–4bn expected in 2026). Cost reduction delivery reached $2.8bn to date (≈$2bn in 2025) with an increased structural target of $5.5–6.5bn by 2027 and expected underlying opex of ~$19–20bn by 2027; ROACE was ~14% in 2025 (price‑adjusted) with a >16% target for 2027. Operationally BP cited upstream production broadly flat underlying, 7 major project start‑ups (150k of 250k boe/d net peak production now started), 2026 production ~2.3m boe/d (ex‑divestments), reserves replacement ratio 90% in 2025 (100% target by 2027), plant/refinery availability >96%, wells reliability ~98%, operational emissions down ~37% vs 2019, methane intensity ~0.04%, managed base decline within 3–5%, and noted ~$4bn after‑tax impairments in Q4 as part of high‑grading the portfolio.BP plc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 189.34B | 185.23B | 213.67B | 240.86B | 154.71B |
| Gross Profit | 33.53B | 28.11B | 47.39B | 54.05B | 21.65B |
| EBITDA | 31.07B | 25.11B | 42.89B | 29.37B | 27.82B |
| Net Income | 55.00M | 382.83M | 15.50B | -2.48B | 7.42B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 278.53B | 282.23B | 280.29B | 288.12B | 287.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 36.71B | 34.52B | 28.59B | 29.77B | 30.96B |
| Total Debt | 72.53B | 71.55B | 63.08B | 55.49B | 69.79B |
| Total Liabilities | 204.53B | 203.91B | 194.80B | 205.13B | 196.83B |
| Stockholders Equity | 53.05B | 59.25B | 70.28B | 67.55B | 75.46B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 11.27B | 12.00B | 17.75B | 28.86B | 12.72B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 24.49B | 27.30B | 32.04B | 40.93B | 23.61B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -11.50B | -13.25B | -14.87B | -13.71B | -5.69B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -15.88B | -7.30B | -13.36B | -28.02B | -18.08B |
BP plc Technical Analysis
Negative
150.50
Price Trends
149.07
Negative
148.71
Negative
147.05
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.89
Positive
43.14
Neutral
40.00
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:BP.A, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 150.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 147.13, above the 50-day MA of 149.07, and above the 200-day MA of 147.05, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.89 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:BP.A.
BP plc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | £190.87B | 11.92 | 8.25% | 4.00% | -9.21% | -2.61% | |
70 Outperform | £2.91B | 13.86 | 8.95% | 5.64% | 159.13% | 143.76% | |
70 Outperform | £4.00B | -42.84 | -3.13% | 14.05% | 63.10% | -161.03% | |
69 Neutral | £4.95B | -24.34 | -4.05% | 8.77% | 123.03% | -330.89% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
61 Neutral | £86.93B | 1,650.36 | 0.10% | 5.37% | ― | ― | |
58 Neutral | £1.54B | -8.35 | -65.81% | 10.99% | -2.66% | 0.11% |
* Energy Sector Average
GB:BP.A
BP plc
145.50
14.56
11.12%
GB:HBR
Harbour Energy
272.00
130.22
91.85%
GB:SHEL
Shell (UK)
3,401.00
1,197.89
54.37%
GB:SEPL
SEPLAT Petroleum Development
485.00
335.20
223.76%
GB:ENOG
Energean
831.50
167.67
25.26%
GB:ITH
Ithaca Energy PLC
242.00
131.37
118.75%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.