Antofagasta (ANTO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £30.44B
• Dividend Yield: 0.96%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.22M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 36.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.92
• Revenue Growth: 13.52%
• EPS Growth: 38.75%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 8,095
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Copper
• EPS (TTM): 0.36
• Shares Outstanding: 985,856,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,004,434
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,219,046
• PEG Ratio: -20.10
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.07
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.97
• P/FCF Ratio: -151.68
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £2,820.00
• Price Target Upside: -9.56% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: 3,296.00p ▲(5.71% Upside)

Antofagasta's overall stock score reflects strong technical momentum and positive earnings call sentiment, offset by valuation concerns and cash flow challenges. The company's robust operational efficiency and strategic initiatives are promising, but the high P/E ratio and cash flow issues warrant caution.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The significant increase in revenue and EBITDA highlights strong demand and operational efficiency, positioning Antofagasta well for sustained growth.

Project Expansion

On-schedule project expansions will boost production by 30%, enhancing long-term output capacity and competitive positioning in the copper market.

Mine Life Extension

Securing the mine life extension ensures long-term operational stability and resource availability, supporting future production and revenue streams.

Negative Factors

CapEx Execution Challenges

Underperformance in CapEx execution may lead to delays in project completions, affecting future production timelines and financial performance.

Operational Challenges

Operational challenges at key mines can disrupt production and increase costs, impacting profitability and operational efficiency in the near term.

Water Solution Uncertainty

Uncertainty around future water solutions could lead to significant capital expenditures, affecting financial flexibility and long-term operational sustainability.

Antofagasta Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Antofagasta PLC is a Chilean-based multinational mining company primarily engaged in the extraction and production of copper and other minerals. Established in 1888, the company operates through various segments, including copper mining, transportation, and logistics services. Its core products include copper cathodes and concentrate, as well as molybdenum and gold, with significant mining operations located in the Antofagasta Region of northern Chile.

How the Company Makes Money

Antofagasta generates revenue primarily through the sale of copper, which is its main product, accounting for a significant portion of its earnings. The company sells copper in various forms, including cathodes and concentrates, to global markets, benefiting from the high demand for copper in industries such as construction, electronics, and renewable energy. Additionally, Antofagasta earns revenue from the sale of by-products like molybdenum and gold. The company's revenue model is supported by its operational efficiency and cost management strategies, which help maintain profitability even in fluctuating market conditions. Significant partnerships with international trading firms and logistics companies also enhance its distribution capabilities, while long-term contracts with customers provide stable revenue streams. Fluctuations in copper prices and operational performance in its mines are key factors influencing its earnings.

Antofagasta Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Antofagasta shows strong operational efficiency with solid margins and a balanced capital structure. However, challenges in revenue growth and cash flow management, particularly with negative free cash flow, are areas of concern.

Income Statement

Antofagasta's income statement shows stable profitability despite fluctuating revenues. The gross profit margin for 2024 was solid at 37.88%, and the net profit margin was 12.55%, indicating efficient cost management. However, revenue growth from 2023 to 2024 was modest at 4.57%, reflecting industry challenges. The EBIT and EBITDA margins remained strong at 30.37% and 60.03% respectively, underlining operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a robust financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.57, suggesting manageable leverage. The return on equity (ROE) was 8.77%, which is stable but indicates room for improvement in generating higher returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stood at 41.80%, showing a balanced capital structure with a healthy proportion of equity financing.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges, with free cash flow deteriorating from a positive in 2023 to negative in 2024, indicating increased capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio was 2.75, suggesting strong cash generation relative to net earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio was negative, highlighting concerns over cash availability for reinvestment and dividends.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.56B	6.61B	6.32B	5.86B	7.47B	5.13B
Gross Profit	2.26B	2.50B	2.66B	2.43B	4.35B	2.27B
EBITDA	2.77B	3.81B	3.30B	2.76B	4.63B	2.54B
Net Income	830.60M	829.40M	835.10M	1.53B	1.29B	506.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	24.07B	22.63B	19.65B	18.24B	17.28B	16.60B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.58B	4.32B	3.38B	2.39B	3.71B	3.67B
Total Debt	6.87B	5.35B	4.08B	3.27B	3.17B	3.75B
Total Liabilities	10.51B	9.68B	7.60B	6.59B	6.25B	6.52B
Stockholders Equity	9.73B	9.46B	8.95B	8.63B	8.35B	7.75B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-340.70M	-129.30M	203.80M	-2.30M	1.89B	751.30M
Operating Cash Flow	1.82B	2.29B	2.33B	1.88B	3.67B	2.06B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.11B	-2.08B	-2.09B	-477.50M	-2.20B	-2.19B
Financing Cash Flow	167.15M	1.35B	-402.00M	-1.33B	-1.95B	717.10M

Antofagasta Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 3118.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:ANTO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3118 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2874.85, above the 50-day MA of 2786.54, and above the 200-day MA of 2145.72, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 94.85 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.59 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:ANTO.

Antofagasta Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FRES	76 Outperform	£21.75B	61.81	11.97%	2.25%	34.84%	78.48%
HOC	74 Outperform	£2.42B	21.15	24.43%	0.33%	35.83%	397.32%
ATYM	73 Outperform	£1.11B	15.74	15.06%	0.78%	23.97%	216.41%
ANTO	69 Neutral	£30.44B	36.08	11.88%	0.96%	13.52%	38.75%
GLEN	68 Neutral	£44.41B	-29.48	-5.26%	1.93%	-1.06%	-285.88%
AAL	66 Neutral	$31.19B	-9.07	-9.21%	0.83%	-27.65%	-160.77%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%

Antofagasta Corporate Events

Antofagasta Hosts Investor Tour at Centinela Project

Antofagasta PLC is hosting a site visit for investors and analysts at its Centinela Second Concentrator Project, emphasizing the project’s adherence to budget and schedule. The visit aims to showcase the company’s strategic initiatives, safety measures, and technological advancements, potentially reinforcing its market position and stakeholder confidence.

Antofagasta PLC Publishes Prospectus for $600 Million Notes

Antofagasta PLC announced the publication of a prospectus for the listing of $600 million 5.625% notes due in 2035, approved by the Financial Conduct Authority. This move is part of the company’s financial strategy, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests by providing a new investment opportunity.

Antofagasta PLC Announces $600 Million Note Listing

Antofagasta PLC has announced the approval and publication of a prospectus for the listing of $600 million 5.625% notes due in 2035. This financial move is expected to strengthen the company’s capital structure, potentially enhancing its market position and providing additional resources for future projects.

Antofagasta Reports Strong Q3 2025 with Lowered Cost Guidance

Antofagasta PLC reported a strong third quarter in 2025, with copper production remaining stable and net cash costs decreasing due to record by-product credits driven by higher gold production and favorable pricing. The company has adjusted its net cash cost guidance for 2025 to a lower range of $1.20-1.30/lb and reduced its capital expenditure forecast to $3.6 billion, largely due to the depreciation of the Chilean peso. Major construction projects at Centinela and Los Pelambres are progressing as planned, with anticipated production and margin growth. The global copper market remains robust, supported by increasing demand from sectors like energy security and new technologies, despite supply-side disruptions.

Antofagasta PLC Announces Interim Dividend Payment Details

Antofagasta PLC announced the payment details for its interim dividend, with the Sterling equivalent set at 12.2636 pence and the Euro equivalent at 14.1662 Euro cents per ordinary share. This announcement follows the half-year results and reflects the company’s continued commitment to providing returns to its shareholders, with the payment scheduled for 30 September 2025.