Antofagasta (ANTO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £35.25B
• Dividend Yield: 0.92%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.22M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 41.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.93
• Revenue Growth: 13.52%
• EPS Growth: 38.75%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 8,095
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Copper
• EPS (TTM): 0.35
• Shares Outstanding: 985,856,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,004,434
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,219,046
• PEG Ratio: -20.10
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.07
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.97
• P/FCF Ratio: -151.68
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £3,170.45
• Price Target Upside: -11.34% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: 3,916.00p ▲(9.51% Upside)

Antofagasta's overall stock score reflects strong technical momentum and positive earnings call sentiment, offset by valuation concerns and cash flow challenges. The company's robust operational efficiency and strategic initiatives are promising, but the high P/E ratio and cash flow issues warrant caution.

Positive Factors

High operating margins

Sustained high gross and EBITDA margins indicate durable operational efficiency and low unit costs across Antofagasta's asset base. Strong margins support reinvestment, dividend capacity and resilience through commodity cycles, underpinning medium-term cash generation potential.

Large production upside from projects

Clearly defined, on-schedule expansions that can raise output by ~30% represent structural growth in the company’s core commodity. Delivering these projects reduces unit costs and increases scale, materially improving long-term revenue and cash flow capacity once commissioned.

Manageable leverage and balanced capital structure

Moderate leverage and a healthy equity ratio provide financial flexibility to fund capex cycles and withstand commodity volatility. This balance sheet profile supports sustainable investment in growth projects without forcing excessive refinancing or asset sales under stress.

Negative Factors

Free cash flow turned negative

A shift to negative free cash flow driven by elevated capital spending weakens the company's ability to self-fund projects, maintain dividends and reduce debt. If high capex persists, financing needs may increase and constrain strategic optionality over the medium term.

Concentrated second-half CapEx risk

A front-loaded spending profile concentrated in H2 raises execution and cash-timing risks; delayed or higher-than-expected spending could magnify FCF pressure, increase financing needs and postpone expected production gains from projects into later periods.

Water-solution and operational uncertainties

Unresolved long-term water supply for Zaldívar and other operations presents a structural risk: securing solutions may require large capex or operational trade-offs. This can limit mine life extensions, raise unit costs, and introduce regulatory and execution risk over the medium term.

Antofagasta Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Antofagasta plc operates as a mining company. It operates through Los Pelambres, Centinela, Antucoya, Zaldívar, Exploration and Evaluation, and Transport Division segments. The company holds a 60% interest in the Los Pelambres mine, a 70% interest in the Centinela mine, a 70% interest in the Antucoya mine, and a 50% interest in the Zaldívar mine located in Chile. Its mines produce copper cathodes and copper concentrates, as well as molybdenum, gold, and silver by-products. The company also has exploration projects in various countries. In addition, it provides rail and road cargo services to mining customers in northern Chile. The company was founded in 1888 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom. Antofagasta plc is a subsidiary of Metalinvest Establishment.

How the Company Makes Money

Antofagasta generates revenue primarily through the sale of copper, which is its main product, accounting for a significant portion of its earnings. The company sells copper in various forms, including cathodes and concentrates, to global markets, benefiting from the high demand for copper in industries such as construction, electronics, and renewable energy. Additionally, Antofagasta earns revenue from the sale of by-products like molybdenum and gold. The company's revenue model is supported by its operational efficiency and cost management strategies, which help maintain profitability even in fluctuating market conditions. Significant partnerships with international trading firms and logistics companies also enhance its distribution capabilities, while long-term contracts with customers provide stable revenue streams. Fluctuations in copper prices and operational performance in its mines are key factors influencing its earnings.

Antofagasta Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Antofagasta shows strong operational efficiency with solid margins and a balanced capital structure. However, challenges in revenue growth and cash flow management, particularly with negative free cash flow, are areas of concern.

Income Statement

Antofagasta's income statement shows stable profitability despite fluctuating revenues. The gross profit margin for 2024 was solid at 37.88%, and the net profit margin was 12.55%, indicating efficient cost management. However, revenue growth from 2023 to 2024 was modest at 4.57%, reflecting industry challenges. The EBIT and EBITDA margins remained strong at 30.37% and 60.03% respectively, underlining operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a robust financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.57, suggesting manageable leverage. The return on equity (ROE) was 8.77%, which is stable but indicates room for improvement in generating higher returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stood at 41.80%, showing a balanced capital structure with a healthy proportion of equity financing.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges, with free cash flow deteriorating from a positive in 2023 to negative in 2024, indicating increased capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio was 2.75, suggesting strong cash generation relative to net earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio was negative, highlighting concerns over cash availability for reinvestment and dividends.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.56B	6.61B	6.32B	5.86B	7.47B	5.13B
Gross Profit	2.26B	2.50B	2.66B	2.43B	4.35B	2.27B
EBITDA	2.77B	3.81B	3.30B	2.76B	4.63B	2.54B
Net Income	830.60M	829.40M	835.10M	1.53B	1.29B	506.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	24.07B	22.63B	19.65B	18.24B	17.28B	16.60B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.58B	4.32B	3.38B	2.39B	3.71B	3.67B
Total Debt	6.87B	5.35B	4.08B	3.27B	3.17B	3.75B
Total Liabilities	10.51B	9.68B	7.60B	6.59B	6.25B	6.52B
Stockholders Equity	9.73B	9.46B	8.95B	8.63B	8.35B	7.75B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-340.70M	-129.30M	203.80M	-2.30M	1.89B	751.30M
Operating Cash Flow	1.82B	2.29B	2.33B	1.88B	3.67B	2.06B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.11B	-2.08B	-2.09B	-477.50M	-2.20B	-2.19B
Financing Cash Flow	167.15M	1.35B	-402.00M	-1.33B	-1.95B	717.10M

Antofagasta Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 3576.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:ANTO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3576 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3328.40, above the 50-day MA of 3003.16, and above the 200-day MA of 2279.20, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 169.70 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.16 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.82 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:ANTO.

Antofagasta Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CAML	74 Outperform	£338.99M	12.25	9.97%	5.15%	5.70%	-9.60%
ATYM	73 Outperform	£1.30B	18.57	15.06%	0.74%	23.97%	216.41%
FRES	73 Outperform	$27.75B	78.85	11.97%	2.05%	34.84%	78.48%
ANTO	69 Neutral	£35.25B	41.79	11.88%	0.92%	13.52%	38.75%
GLEN	68 Neutral	£56.68B	-36.91	-5.26%	1.89%	-1.06%	-285.88%
AAL	66 Neutral	£35.33B	-10.21	-9.21%	0.80%	-27.65%	-160.77%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%

Antofagasta Corporate Events

Antofagasta Hosts Investor Tour at Centinela Project

Antofagasta PLC is hosting a site visit for investors and analysts at its Centinela Second Concentrator Project, emphasizing the project’s adherence to budget and schedule. The visit aims to showcase the company’s strategic initiatives, safety measures, and technological advancements, potentially reinforcing its market position and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ANTO) stock is a Hold with a £2480.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Antofagasta stock, see the GB:ANTO Stock Forecast page.

Antofagasta PLC Publishes Prospectus for $600 Million Notes

Antofagasta PLC announced the publication of a prospectus for the listing of $600 million 5.625% notes due in 2035, approved by the Financial Conduct Authority. This move is part of the company’s financial strategy, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests by providing a new investment opportunity.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ANTO) stock is a Hold with a £25.65 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Antofagasta stock, see the GB:ANTO Stock Forecast page.

Antofagasta PLC Announces $600 Million Note Listing

Antofagasta PLC has announced the approval and publication of a prospectus for the listing of $600 million 5.625% notes due in 2035. This financial move is expected to strengthen the company’s capital structure, potentially enhancing its market position and providing additional resources for future projects.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ANTO) stock is a Hold with a £25.65 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Antofagasta stock, see the GB:ANTO Stock Forecast page.

Antofagasta Reports Strong Q3 2025 with Lowered Cost Guidance

Antofagasta PLC reported a strong third quarter in 2025, with copper production remaining stable and net cash costs decreasing due to record by-product credits driven by higher gold production and favorable pricing. The company has adjusted its net cash cost guidance for 2025 to a lower range of $1.20-1.30/lb and reduced its capital expenditure forecast to $3.6 billion, largely due to the depreciation of the Chilean peso. Major construction projects at Centinela and Los Pelambres are progressing as planned, with anticipated production and margin growth. The global copper market remains robust, supported by increasing demand from sectors like energy security and new technologies, despite supply-side disruptions.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ANTO) stock is a Hold with a £2885.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Antofagasta stock, see the GB:ANTO Stock Forecast page.