Antofagasta (GB:ANTO)
LSE:ANTO
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Antofagasta
(LSE:ANTO)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
3,593.00 p
▲(10.01% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:02/18/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial performance and a strong technical uptrend, reinforced by a constructive earnings outlook with funded growth projects. Offsetting these positives are elevated valuation (high P/E, low yield) and balance-sheet/free-cash-flow risks from higher leverage and recent negative FCF during peak CapEx.
Positive Factors
Fully-funded growth pipeline
A fully financed, on-time growth program that includes Centinela second concentrator and Los Pelambres enablers targets ~30% production growth over the coming years. This scale expansion is durable: it should sustainably increase volumes, diversify cash flows, and lower unit costs once projects ramp, reducing dependence on spot price moves and minimizing near-term financing risk.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage
A material step-up in absolute debt through 2025 reduces financial flexibility and raises refinancing and covenant sensitivity if commodity conditions weaken. Even if net-debt metrics are described as broadly stable, higher gross leverage during a peak investment phase increases exposure to rate rises, price shocks, or project delays over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Fully-funded growth pipeline
A fully financed, on-time growth program that includes Centinela second concentrator and Los Pelambres enablers targets ~30% production growth over the coming years. This scale expansion is durable: it should sustainably increase volumes, diversify cash flows, and lower unit costs once projects ramp, reducing dependence on spot price moves and minimizing near-term financing risk.
Read all positive factors
Antofagasta (ANTO) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£32.20B
Dividend Yield0.92%
Average Volume (3M)1.22M
Price to Earnings (P/E)32.1
Beta (1Y)2.01
Revenue Growth13.52%
EPS Growth38.75%
CountryUK
Employees8,095
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCopper
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.62
Shares Outstanding985,856,700
10 Day Avg. Volume1,004,434
30 Day Avg. Volume1,219,046
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.51
Price to Book (P/B)4.19
Price to Sales (P/S)4.94
P/FCF Ratio-113.21
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£3,484.66Price Target Upside6.70% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)1.72
Revenue Forecast (FY)£9.85B
Antofagasta Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Antofagasta plc operates as a mining company. It operates through Los Pelambres, Centinela, Antucoya, Zaldívar, Exploration and Evaluation, and Transport Division segments. The company holds a 60% interest in the Los Pelambres mine, a 70% interest...
How the Company Makes Money
Antofagasta makes money primarily by producing and selling copper, with additional revenue from by-products recovered during processing. The core revenue stream is the sale of copper products (e.g., copper concentrate and/or copper cathode), price...
Antofagasta Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a strong, constructive performance: record revenue and EBITDA, expanded margins (60%), robust operating cash flow, a fully financed growth pipeline progressing on time and on budget, and continued leadership on safety and sustainability. Offsetting items include flat copper production year-on-year, a working capital build driven by shipment timing and year-end prices, a higher effective tax rate (36%), ongoing peak CapEx execution risk, upcoming labor negotiations, and modest commercial cost headwinds (~$0.15/lb marketing). Overall, the positives (material revenue, margin and cash-flow gains, funded growth and low costs) substantially outweigh the operational and timing headwinds.Positive Updates
Record Financial Performance
Revenue rose 30% year-on-year to $8.6 billion; EBITDA increased 52% to a record $5.2 billion; operating cash flow grew 30% to $4.3 billion; EBITDA margin expanded to 60%, placing the company at the top end of its pure-play copper peer group.
Negative Updates
Flat Copper Production Year-on-Year
Copper production was in line year-on-year (no growth) as higher grades and recoveries offset lower throughputs, indicating production volume constraints despite favorable markets.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Financial Performance
Revenue rose 30% year-on-year to $8.6 billion; EBITDA increased 52% to a record $5.2 billion; operating cash flow grew 30% to $4.3 billion; EBITDA margin expanded to 60%, placing the company at the top end of its pure-play copper peer group.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The guidance emphasized delivering ~30% production growth from projects already under construction (projects on time and on budget), with the Centinela second concentrator mechanically completing/commissioning in 2027, ramping through 2028 and reaching its first full year at design capacity in 2029, and Los Pelambres grades expected to recover to ~0.6% Cu; group CapEx peaked in 2025, the company holds >$4bn cash and plans roughly $600m for Los Pelambres enablers and ~$1.5–1.6bn for Centinela second concentrator + Encuentro sulphides this year. Management reiterated a disciplined capital allocation framework with a 50% payout for 2025 (dividends paid $760m in 2025; proposed $0.646/share if approved), a strong balance sheet (2025 revenue $8.6bn, EBITDA $5.2bn, EBITDA margin 60%, operating cash flow $4.3bn, net debt/EBITDA broadly flat), an effective tax rate ~36%, and continued cost competitiveness (Los Pelambres net cost $0.82/lb, Centinela $0.75/lb, competitiveness program savings ~$0.08/lb and marketing/TC/RC ≈ $0.15/lb), while advancing innovation (industrial-scale Cuprochlor heap leach pad in 2026) and targeting sustainable, fully financed growth.Antofagasta Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 8.80B | 6.61B | 6.32B | 5.86B | 7.47B |
| Gross Profit | 4.31B | 2.50B | 2.66B | 2.43B | 4.35B |
| EBITDA | 5.36B | 3.81B | 3.30B | 2.76B | 4.63B |
| Net Income | 1.36B | 829.40M | 835.10M | 1.53B | 1.29B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 26.43B | 22.63B | 19.65B | 18.24B | 17.28B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.91B | 4.32B | 3.38B | 2.39B | 3.71B |
| Total Debt | 7.73B | 5.35B | 4.08B | 3.27B | 3.17B |
| Total Liabilities | 11.99B | 9.68B | 7.60B | 6.59B | 6.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.37B | 9.46B | 8.95B | 8.63B | 8.35B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -384.19M | -129.30M | 203.80M | -2.30M | 1.89B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.38B | 2.29B | 2.33B | 1.88B | 3.67B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.57B | -2.08B | -2.09B | -477.50M | -2.20B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 741.13M | 1.35B | -402.00M | -1.33B | -1.95B |
Antofagasta Technical Analysis
Negative
3266.00
Price Trends
3721.18
Negative
3371.14
Negative
2795.70
Positive
Market Momentum
-144.78
Positive
39.98
Neutral
48.56
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:ANTO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3266 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3599.85, below the 50-day MA of 3721.18, and above the 200-day MA of 2795.70, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -144.78 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:ANTO.
Antofagasta Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | £23.40B | 23.39 | 32.98% | 2.05% | 34.84% | 78.48% | |
70 Outperform | £32.20B | 32.06 | 10.67% | 0.92% | 13.52% | 38.75% | |
65 Neutral | £1.07B | 16.42 | 15.06% | 0.74% | 23.97% | 216.41% | |
63 Neutral | £268.56M | -5.82 | -22.86% | 5.15% | 5.70% | -9.60% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
60 Neutral | £62.97B | 176.08 | 0.96% | 1.89% | -1.06% | -285.88% | |
48 Neutral | £33.03B | -11.13 | -20.10% | 0.80% | -27.65% | -160.77% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
GB:ANTO
Antofagasta
3,266.00
1,625.85
99.13%
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Antofagasta Corporate Events
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Antofagasta Publishes 2025 Annual Report and Sets Date for 2026 AGM
Neutral
Mar 26, 2026
Antofagasta has published its 2025 Annual Report and Accounts alongside the 2026 Notice of Annual General Meeting, making these documents available via the UK’s National Storage Mechanism and on the company’s website. The filings inclu...
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Antofagasta Publishes 2025 Annual Report and Sets Date for 2026 AGM
Neutral
Mar 26, 2026
Antofagasta has published its 2025 Annual Report and Accounts alongside the 2026 Notice of Annual General Meeting, making these documents available through the UK Financial Conduct Authority’s National Storage Mechanism and on the company...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Antofagasta Refreshes Board Committee Membership Ahead of April 2026
Neutral
Mar 11, 2026
Antofagasta has announced changes to the composition of its board committees, effective 1 April 2026, as part of an update to its governance structure. Newly appointed non-executive director Andrónico Luksic Lederer will join both the Sustain...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Antofagasta Posts Record EBITDA and Boosts Payout as Growth Projects Peak
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
Antofagasta reported a 52% jump in EBITDA to a record $5.2 billion for 2025, as revenue climbed 30% to $8.6 billion on higher copper, gold and molybdenum prices and increased volumes. The EBITDA margin widened to 60%, earnings per share more than ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Antofagasta Sets 17 February Date for 2025 Full-Year Results and Investor Presentation
Neutral
Feb 5, 2026
Antofagasta plc will publish its full-year results for 2025 on 17 February 2026, with the announcement and accompanying presentation slides released on the company’s website early that morning, followed by a transcript made available after t...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Antofagasta Cuts Net Costs to Five-Year Low as Growth Projects Stay on Track
Positive
Jan 29, 2026
Antofagasta reported a strong finish to 2025, with fourth-quarter copper production rising 9% to 177,000 tonnes and full-year net cash costs dropping 27% to $1.19 per pound, a five-year low, helped by higher gold and molybdenum by-product output a...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Antofagasta Reshapes Board as Luksic Family Roles Shift
Neutral
Jan 28, 2026
Antofagasta plc has announced that long-serving non-executive director Andrónico Luksic Craig has resigned from its board with effect from 27 January 2026 and will not receive any loss-of-office payments beyond accrued remuneration. The compa...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.