Antofagasta (ANTO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £35.76B
• Dividend Yield: 0.92%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.22M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 45.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.90
• Revenue Growth: 13.52%
• EPS Growth: 38.75%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 8,095
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Copper
• EPS (TTM): 0.35
• Shares Outstanding: 985,856,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,004,434
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,219,046
• PEG Ratio: -20.10
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.07
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.97
• P/FCF Ratio: -151.68
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £3,354.44
• Price Target Upside: -7.51% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: 4,235.00p ▲(16.76% Upside)

Antofagasta's overall stock score reflects strong technical momentum and positive earnings call sentiment, offset by valuation concerns and cash flow challenges. The company's robust operational efficiency and strategic initiatives are promising, but the high P/E ratio and cash flow issues warrant caution.

Positive Factors

High and improving margins

Sustained high EBITDA margins indicate durable operational efficiency and strong cost control across mines. Elevated margins provide structural capacity to fund reinvestment, cushion commodity cycles, and support dividend policy, improving long-term cash generation potential despite cyclical prices.

Near-term production uplift from projects

A planned ~30% production increase from Centinela and Pelambres represents a structural expansion of output and scale. Higher production should lower unit costs, diversify commodity mix (copper, molybdenum, gold) and underpin sustainable revenue growth and margin resilience over the medium term.

Manageable leverage and balanced structure

Moderate leverage and a balanced equity ratio give the company financial flexibility to fund large growth capex and withstand commodity swings. Manageable debt levels reduce refinancing risk and support the capacity to invest in projects without acute solvency pressure over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Free cash flow deterioration

A shift to negative free cash flow reflects rising capital intensity and reduces self-funding capability for projects and dividends. Persistently negative FCF could force external financing, constrain strategic optionality, and increase sensitivity to execution or commodity setbacks over the medium term.

Back‑loaded capex increases execution risk

A concentrated, back‑loaded $3.9bn capex schedule raises timing and execution risk. Delivering a large portion of annual spend late in the year can amplify cost overruns, logistical strain and cash timing pressure, potentially delaying the expected production and margin benefits from projects.

Operational & water-solution uncertainties

Operational maintenance at Los Pelambres and an unresolved long-term water solution for Zaldívar pose structural production and capital risks. Both issues can raise future capex, constrain mine life economics, and introduce variability to output and unit costs over multiple years.

Antofagasta Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Antofagasta plc operates as a mining company. It operates through Los Pelambres, Centinela, Antucoya, Zaldívar, Exploration and Evaluation, and Transport Division segments. The company holds a 60% interest in the Los Pelambres mine, a 70% interest in the Centinela mine, a 70% interest in the Antucoya mine, and a 50% interest in the Zaldívar mine located in Chile. Its mines produce copper cathodes and copper concentrates, as well as molybdenum, gold, and silver by-products. The company also has exploration projects in various countries. In addition, it provides rail and road cargo services to mining customers in northern Chile. The company was founded in 1888 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom. Antofagasta plc is a subsidiary of Metalinvest Establishment.

How the Company Makes Money

Antofagasta generates revenue primarily through the sale of copper, which is its main product, accounting for a significant portion of its earnings. The company sells copper in various forms, including cathodes and concentrates, to global markets, benefiting from the high demand for copper in industries such as construction, electronics, and renewable energy. Additionally, Antofagasta earns revenue from the sale of by-products like molybdenum and gold. The company's revenue model is supported by its operational efficiency and cost management strategies, which help maintain profitability even in fluctuating market conditions. Significant partnerships with international trading firms and logistics companies also enhance its distribution capabilities, while long-term contracts with customers provide stable revenue streams. Fluctuations in copper prices and operational performance in its mines are key factors influencing its earnings.

Antofagasta Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Antofagasta shows solid operational efficiency with strong margins and a balanced capital structure. However, challenges in revenue growth and cash flow management, particularly in sustaining free cash flow amidst higher capital expenditures, are notable. The financial health is stable with manageable debt, but there is a need to enhance revenue growth and improve cash flow stability.

Income Statement

Antofagasta's income statement shows stable profitability despite fluctuating revenues. The gross profit margin for 2024 was solid at 37.88%, and the net profit margin was 12.55%, indicating efficient cost management. However, revenue growth from 2023 to 2024 was modest at 4.57%, reflecting industry challenges. The EBIT and EBITDA margins remained strong at 30.37% and 60.03% respectively, underlining operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a robust financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.57, suggesting manageable leverage. The return on equity (ROE) was 8.77%, which is stable but indicates room for improvement in generating higher returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stood at 41.80%, showing a balanced capital structure with a healthy proportion of equity financing.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges, with free cash flow deteriorating from a positive in 2023 to negative in 2024, indicating increased capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio was 2.75, suggesting strong cash generation relative to net earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio was negative, highlighting concerns over cash availability for reinvestment and dividends.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.56B	6.61B	6.32B	5.86B	7.47B	5.13B
Gross Profit	2.26B	2.50B	2.66B	2.43B	4.35B	2.27B
EBITDA	2.77B	3.81B	3.30B	2.76B	4.63B	2.54B
Net Income	830.60M	829.40M	835.10M	1.53B	1.29B	506.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	24.07B	22.63B	19.65B	18.24B	17.28B	16.60B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.58B	4.32B	3.38B	2.39B	3.71B	3.67B
Total Debt	6.87B	5.35B	4.08B	3.27B	3.17B	3.75B
Total Liabilities	10.51B	9.68B	7.60B	6.59B	6.25B	6.52B
Stockholders Equity	9.73B	9.46B	8.95B	8.63B	8.35B	7.75B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-340.70M	-129.30M	203.80M	-2.30M	1.89B	751.30M
Operating Cash Flow	1.82B	2.29B	2.33B	1.88B	3.67B	2.06B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.11B	-2.08B	-2.09B	-477.50M	-2.20B	-2.19B
Financing Cash Flow	167.15M	1.35B	-402.00M	-1.33B	-1.95B	717.10M

Antofagasta Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 3627.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:ANTO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 3627 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3625.80, above the 50-day MA of 3287.92, and above the 200-day MA of 2440.54, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 106.58 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.91 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GB:ANTO.

Antofagasta Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CAML	74 Outperform	£373.21M	13.84	9.97%	5.15%	5.70%	-9.60%
FRES	73 Outperform	$27.83B	81.70	11.97%	2.05%	34.84%	78.48%
ANTO	69 Neutral	£35.76B	45.20	11.88%	0.92%	13.52%	38.75%
AAL	66 Neutral	$38.42B	-11.10	-9.21%	0.80%	-27.65%	-160.77%
ATYM	65 Neutral	£1.43B	20.59	15.06%	0.74%	23.97%	216.41%
GLEN	65 Neutral	£59.84B	-38.96	-5.26%	1.89%	-1.06%	-285.88%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%

Antofagasta Corporate Events

Antofagasta Cuts Net Costs to Five-Year Low as Growth Projects Stay on Track

Antofagasta reported a strong finish to 2025, with fourth-quarter copper production rising 9% to 177,000 tonnes and full-year net cash costs dropping 27% to $1.19 per pound, a five-year low, helped by higher gold and molybdenum by-product output and firmer gold prices. While full-year copper production edged down 2% to 653,700 tonnes, gold output climbed 13% and molybdenum surged 48%, underscoring the benefit of the group’s diversified by-product stream. Management reaffirmed that its major growth projects at Centinela and Los Pelambres remain on time and on budget and are expected to be completed in 2027, ultimately adding around 30% to copper volumes and lowering costs, supported by a planned $3.4 billion in capital expenditure for 2026. The company guided 2026 copper production to 650,000–700,000 tonnes with broadly stable net cash costs of $1.15–$1.35 per pound, and highlighted continued progress on key infrastructure including the Centinela Second Concentrator, Los Pelambres’ pipeline and desalination expansions, and long-term water supply and exploration initiatives. Antofagasta also maintained a strong safety record with another fatality-free year and secured several multi-year labour agreements, reducing operational risk as it scales up its growth programme in a structurally tight copper market.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ANTO) stock is a Hold with a £4060.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Antofagasta stock, see the GB:ANTO Stock Forecast page.

Antofagasta Reshapes Board as Luksic Family Roles Shift

Antofagasta plc has announced that long-serving non-executive director Andrónico Luksic Craig has resigned from its board with effect from 27 January 2026 and will not receive any loss-of-office payments beyond accrued remuneration. The company is appointing Andrónico Luksic Lederer, currently Vice President of Development and an executive committee member, as a non-executive director from 1 March 2026, following his resignation from his executive role to become Deputy Chairman of Quiñenco S.A. The board has clarified that Luksic Lederer, who has played a central role in major strategic transactions and exploration-led growth, will not be considered independent under the UK Corporate Governance Code, underscoring the continued influence of the Luksic family over Antofagasta’s governance while aiming to leverage his experience to support future project development and regional expansion.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ANTO) stock is a Hold with a £4113.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Antofagasta stock, see the GB:ANTO Stock Forecast page.

Antofagasta Hosts Investor Tour at Centinela Project

Antofagasta PLC is hosting a site visit for investors and analysts at its Centinela Second Concentrator Project, emphasizing the project’s adherence to budget and schedule. The visit aims to showcase the company’s strategic initiatives, safety measures, and technological advancements, potentially reinforcing its market position and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ANTO) stock is a Hold with a £2480.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Antofagasta stock, see the GB:ANTO Stock Forecast page.