Antofagasta (ANTO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £26.25B
• Dividend Yield: 1.1%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.22M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 31.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.85
• Revenue Growth: 13.52%
• EPS Growth: 38.75%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 8,095
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Copper
• EPS (TTM): 0.36
• Shares Outstanding: 985,856,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,004,434
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,219,046
• PEG Ratio: -20.10
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.07
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.97
• P/FCF Ratio: -151.68
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £2,575.91
• Price Target Upside: -5.40% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: 2,885.00p ▲(5.95% Upside)

Antofagasta's strong earnings performance and positive technical indicators are offset by valuation concerns and cash flow challenges. The earnings call provided a positive outlook with growth in key projects, but CapEx and operational uncertainties remain.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The significant increase in revenue and EBITDA highlights strong demand and operational efficiency, positioning Antofagasta well for sustained growth.

Project Expansion

On-schedule project expansions will boost production by 30%, enhancing long-term output capacity and competitive positioning in the copper market.

Mine Life Extension

Securing the mine life extension ensures long-term operational stability and resource availability, supporting future production and revenue streams.

Negative Factors

CapEx Execution Challenges

Underperformance in CapEx execution may lead to delays in project completions, affecting future production timelines and financial performance.

Operational Challenges

Operational challenges at key mines can disrupt production and increase costs, impacting profitability and operational efficiency in the near term.

Water Solution Uncertainty

Uncertainty around future water solutions could lead to significant capital expenditures, affecting financial flexibility and long-term operational sustainability.

Antofagasta Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Antofagasta plc is a Chilean-based mining company primarily engaged in the production of copper, gold, and molybdenum. The company operates several mines in the Antofagasta Region of northern Chile, with its core operations including the Los Pelambres, Centinela, and Antucoya mines. Antofagasta is also involved in the transportation of minerals through its rail and port operations, providing a complete value chain from extraction to shipment.

How the Company Makes Money

Antofagasta generates revenue primarily through the sale of copper, which constitutes the majority of its earnings. The company benefits from global demand for copper driven by industrial use, construction, and the growing renewable energy sector. Additional revenue streams include the sale of by-products such as gold and molybdenum. Antofagasta's revenue is influenced by commodity prices, and it has established contracts and partnerships with various industrial clients and trading companies to secure sales. The company's operational efficiency and cost management further enhance profitability, while its investments in projects and infrastructure contribute to long-term growth.

Antofagasta Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Antofagasta shows strong operational efficiency with solid margins and a balanced capital structure. However, challenges in revenue growth and cash flow management, particularly with negative free cash flow, are areas of concern.

Income Statement

Antofagasta's income statement shows stable profitability despite fluctuating revenues. The gross profit margin for 2024 was solid at 37.88%, and the net profit margin was 12.55%, indicating efficient cost management. However, revenue growth from 2023 to 2024 was modest at 4.57%, reflecting industry challenges. The EBIT and EBITDA margins remained strong at 30.37% and 60.03% respectively, underlining operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a robust financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.57, suggesting manageable leverage. The return on equity (ROE) was 8.77%, which is stable but indicates room for improvement in generating higher returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stood at 41.80%, showing a balanced capital structure with a healthy proportion of equity financing.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges, with free cash flow deteriorating from a positive in 2023 to negative in 2024, indicating increased capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio was 2.75, suggesting strong cash generation relative to net earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio was negative, highlighting concerns over cash availability for reinvestment and dividends.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.56B	6.61B	6.32B	5.86B	7.47B	5.13B
Gross Profit	2.26B	2.50B	2.66B	2.43B	4.35B	2.27B
EBITDA	2.77B	3.02B	3.30B	2.76B	4.50B	2.54B
Net Income	830.60M	829.40M	835.10M	1.53B	1.29B	506.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	24.07B	22.63B	19.65B	18.24B	17.28B	16.60B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.58B	4.32B	3.38B	2.39B	3.71B	3.67B
Total Debt	6.87B	5.35B	4.08B	3.27B	3.17B	3.75B
Total Liabilities	10.51B	9.68B	7.60B	6.59B	6.25B	6.52B
Stockholders Equity	9.73B	9.46B	8.95B	8.63B	8.35B	7.75B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-340.70M	-129.30M	203.80M	-2.30M	1.89B	751.30M
Operating Cash Flow	1.82B	2.29B	2.33B	1.88B	3.67B	2.06B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.11B	-2.08B	-2.09B	-477.50M	-2.20B	-2.19B
Financing Cash Flow	167.15M	1.35B	-402.00M	-1.33B	-1.95B	717.10M

Antofagasta Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 2723.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:ANTO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2723 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2728.65, above the 50-day MA of 2553.33, and above the 200-day MA of 1988.34, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 40.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:ANTO.

Antofagasta Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FRES	72 Outperform	$15.81B	44.93	11.97%	3.03%	34.84%	78.48%
ATYM	70 Outperform	£950.12M	15.11	13.54%	0.55%	21.25%	108.30%
ANTO	69 Neutral	£26.25B	31.12	11.88%	1.10%	13.52%	38.75%
GLEN	68 Neutral	£41.28B	-26.72	-5.26%	2.09%	-1.06%	-285.88%
HOC	67 Neutral	£1.63B	14.20	24.43%	0.46%	35.83%	397.32%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
AAL	56 Neutral	$30.16B	―	-9.21%	0.87%	-27.65%	-160.77%

Antofagasta Corporate Events

Antofagasta Reports Strong Q3 2025 with Lowered Cost Guidance

Antofagasta PLC reported a strong third quarter in 2025, with copper production remaining stable and net cash costs decreasing due to record by-product credits driven by higher gold production and favorable pricing. The company has adjusted its net cash cost guidance for 2025 to a lower range of $1.20-1.30/lb and reduced its capital expenditure forecast to $3.6 billion, largely due to the depreciation of the Chilean peso. Major construction projects at Centinela and Los Pelambres are progressing as planned, with anticipated production and margin growth. The global copper market remains robust, supported by increasing demand from sectors like energy security and new technologies, despite supply-side disruptions.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ANTO) stock is a Hold with a £2885.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Antofagasta stock, see the GB:ANTO Stock Forecast page.

Antofagasta PLC Announces Interim Dividend Payment Details

Antofagasta PLC announced the payment details for its interim dividend, with the Sterling equivalent set at 12.2636 pence and the Euro equivalent at 14.1662 Euro cents per ordinary share. This announcement follows the half-year results and reflects the company’s continued commitment to providing returns to its shareholders, with the payment scheduled for 30 September 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ANTO) stock is a Hold with a £21.78 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Antofagasta stock, see the GB:ANTO Stock Forecast page.

Antofagasta PLC Prices $600 Million in Senior Unsecured Notes

Antofagasta PLC has announced the pricing of US$600 million in 5.625% Senior Unsecured Notes due in 2035. The proceeds from this issuance will be used for general corporate purposes, and the notes are expected to be listed on the London Stock Exchange. This move is part of Antofagasta’s strategy to strengthen its financial position and support its ongoing operations, potentially impacting its market positioning and offering new opportunities for institutional investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ANTO) stock is a Hold with a £21.78 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Antofagasta stock, see the GB:ANTO Stock Forecast page.

Antofagasta Plc’s Earnings Call Highlights Growth and Challenges

Antofagasta Plc Reports Strong Financial Performance Amid Operational Challenges

Antofagasta Reports Strong H1 2025 Results with Significant EBITDA Growth

Antofagasta PLC reported a robust financial performance for the first half of 2025, with a 60% increase in EBITDA and a 25% rise in EBITDA margins, driven by higher copper production and lower costs. The company continues to advance its growth program at Los Pelambres and Centinela, with a medium-term output growth expectation of over 30%. The interim dividend reflects Antofagasta’s confidence in its operations and commitment to shareholder returns. The company’s strong safety performance and strategic capital allocation further bolster its industry standing.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ANTO) stock is a Buy with a £1950.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Antofagasta stock, see the GB:ANTO Stock Forecast page.

Antofagasta PLC Announces Changes to Board Committees

Antofagasta PLC announced changes to its Board Committees effective from 1 September 2025. Ignacio Bustamante, who joined as an Independent Non-Executive Director in July 2025, will become a member of both the Audit and Risk Committee and the Remuneration and Talent Management Committee. Meanwhile, Francisca Castro will step down from the Audit and Risk Committee. These changes reflect the company’s ongoing efforts to strengthen its governance and oversight structures, potentially impacting its strategic direction and stakeholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ANTO) stock is a Buy with a £1950.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Antofagasta stock, see the GB:ANTO Stock Forecast page.

Antofagasta to Announce 2025 Half-Year Results with Investor Q&A

Antofagasta PLC is set to release its half-year results for 2025 on 14 August, which will be accompanied by a presentation video, slides, and a transcript available on their website. The company will also host a Q&A video conference on the same day, led by key executives, to discuss the results with investors, highlighting its transparency and engagement with stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ANTO) stock is a Buy with a £1950.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Antofagasta stock, see the GB:ANTO Stock Forecast page.