Antofagasta (GB:ANTO)
LSE:ANTO
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Antofagasta
(LSE:ANTO)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
3,918.00 p
▼(-1.04% Downside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:02/18/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial performance and a strong technical uptrend, reinforced by a constructive earnings outlook with funded growth projects. Offsetting these positives are elevated valuation (high P/E, low yield) and balance-sheet/free-cash-flow risks from higher leverage and recent negative FCF during peak CapEx.
Positive Factors
Fully funded growth pipeline
A fully financed, on-time growth programme that includes a second Centinela concentrator materially increases long-term production capacity (management targets ~30% group production growth). Funding in place reduces dilution and execution focus supports durable volume expansion once ramped.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage
A material step-up in debt over 2024–25 increases balance-sheet risk and reduces financial flexibility if copper prices weaken. Higher leverage raises interest and covenant sensitivity, making the company more exposed to commodity-driven earnings volatility over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Fully funded growth pipeline
A fully financed, on-time growth programme that includes a second Centinela concentrator materially increases long-term production capacity (management targets ~30% group production growth). Funding in place reduces dilution and execution focus supports durable volume expansion once ramped.
Read all positive factors
Antofagasta (ANTO) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£42.07B
Dividend Yield0.92%
Average Volume (3M)1.22M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.4
Beta (1Y)2.10
Revenue Growth26.29%
EPS Growth55.41%
CountryUK
Employees8,095
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCopper
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.08
Shares Outstanding985,856,700
10 Day Avg. Volume1,004,434
30 Day Avg. Volume1,219,046
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.51
Price to Book (P/B)4.19
Price to Sales (P/S)4.94
P/FCF Ratio-113.21
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£3,249.12Price Target Upside-17.93% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)1.7
Revenue Forecast (FY)£9.90B
Antofagasta Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Antofagasta plc operates as a mining company. It operates through Los Pelambres, Centinela, Antucoya, Zaldívar, Exploration and Evaluation, and Transport Division segments. The company holds a 60% interest in the Los Pelambres mine, a 70% interest...
How the Company Makes Money
Antofagasta makes money primarily by producing and selling copper, with additional revenue from by-products recovered during processing. The core revenue stream is the sale of copper products (e.g., copper concentrate and/or copper cathode), price...
Antofagasta Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a strong, constructive performance: record revenue and EBITDA, expanded margins (60%), robust operating cash flow, a fully financed growth pipeline progressing on time and on budget, and continued leadership on safety and sustainability. Offsetting items include flat copper production year-on-year, a working capital build driven by shipment timing and year-end prices, a higher effective tax rate (36%), ongoing peak CapEx execution risk, upcoming labor negotiations, and modest commercial cost headwinds (~$0.15/lb marketing). Overall, the positives (material revenue, margin and cash-flow gains, funded growth and low costs) substantially outweigh the operational and timing headwinds.Positive Updates
Record Financial Performance
Revenue rose 30% year-on-year to $8.6 billion; EBITDA increased 52% to a record $5.2 billion; operating cash flow grew 30% to $4.3 billion; EBITDA margin expanded to 60%, placing the company at the top end of its pure-play copper peer group.
Negative Updates
Flat Copper Production Year-on-Year
Copper production was in line year-on-year (no growth) as higher grades and recoveries offset lower throughputs, indicating production volume constraints despite favorable markets.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Financial Performance
Revenue rose 30% year-on-year to $8.6 billion; EBITDA increased 52% to a record $5.2 billion; operating cash flow grew 30% to $4.3 billion; EBITDA margin expanded to 60%, placing the company at the top end of its pure-play copper peer group.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The guidance emphasized delivering ~30% production growth from projects already under construction (projects on time and on budget), with the Centinela second concentrator mechanically completing/commissioning in 2027, ramping through 2028 and reaching its first full year at design capacity in 2029, and Los Pelambres grades expected to recover to ~0.6% Cu; group CapEx peaked in 2025, the company holds >$4bn cash and plans roughly $600m for Los Pelambres enablers and ~$1.5–1.6bn for Centinela second concentrator + Encuentro sulphides this year. Management reiterated a disciplined capital allocation framework with a 50% payout for 2025 (dividends paid $760m in 2025; proposed $0.646/share if approved), a strong balance sheet (2025 revenue $8.6bn, EBITDA $5.2bn, EBITDA margin 60%, operating cash flow $4.3bn, net debt/EBITDA broadly flat), an effective tax rate ~36%, and continued cost competitiveness (Los Pelambres net cost $0.82/lb, Centinela $0.75/lb, competitiveness program savings ~$0.08/lb and marketing/TC/RC ≈ $0.15/lb), while advancing innovation (industrial-scale Cuprochlor heap leach pad in 2026) and targeting sustainable, fully financed growth.Antofagasta Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 8.80B | 6.61B | 6.32B | 5.86B | 7.47B |
| Gross Profit | 4.31B | 2.50B | 2.66B | 2.43B | 4.35B |
| EBITDA | 5.36B | 3.81B | 3.30B | 2.76B | 4.63B |
| Net Income | 1.36B | 829.40M | 835.10M | 1.53B | 1.29B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 26.43B | 22.63B | 19.65B | 18.24B | 17.28B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.91B | 4.32B | 3.38B | 2.39B | 3.71B |
| Total Debt | 7.73B | 5.35B | 4.08B | 3.27B | 3.17B |
| Total Liabilities | 11.99B | 9.68B | 7.60B | 6.59B | 6.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.37B | 9.46B | 8.95B | 8.63B | 8.35B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -384.19M | -129.30M | 203.80M | -2.30M | 1.89B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.38B | 2.29B | 2.33B | 1.88B | 3.67B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.57B | -2.08B | -2.09B | -477.50M | -2.20B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 741.13M | 1.35B | -402.00M | -1.33B | -1.95B |
Antofagasta Technical Analysis
Positive
3959.00
Price Trends
3682.81
Positive
3461.04
Positive
2890.76
Positive
Market Momentum
71.44
Negative
61.37
Neutral
75.86
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:ANTO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3959 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3497.45, above the 50-day MA of 3682.81, and above the 200-day MA of 2890.76, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 71.44 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:ANTO.
Antofagasta Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | £27.32B | 8.31 | 32.98% | 2.05% | 24.81% | 844.36% | |
70 Outperform | £42.07B | 13.41 | 10.67% | 0.92% | 26.29% | 55.41% | |
65 Neutral | £1.35B | 23.70 | 14.96% | 0.74% | 39.45% | 171.03% | |
63 Neutral | £43.85B | -6.53 | -20.10% | 0.80% | -34.37% | -23.82% | |
63 Neutral | £270.95M | -1.30 | -22.86% | 5.15% | 3.81% | -240.81% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
60 Neutral | £69.70B | 16.06 | 0.96% | 1.89% | 3.75% | ― |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
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Antofagasta Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Antofagasta Director Ignacio Bustamante Joins Pan American Silver Board
Positive
May 5, 2026
Antofagasta has announced that non-executive director Ignacio Bustamante has joined the board of Pan American Silver Corp., a publicly listed precious metals producer, effective 30 April 2026. The external appointment underscores the cross-industr...
DividendsFinancial Disclosures
Antofagasta Sets Sterling and Euro Rates for Final 2026 Dividend
Positive
Apr 24, 2026
Antofagasta has confirmed the currency equivalents for its previously announced final dividend of 48.0 US cents per share, setting the sterling payment at 35.5766 pence and the euro payment at 40.8928 cents, based on specified exchange rates. The ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Antofagasta Cuts Net Cash Costs as Growth Projects Stay on Track
Positive
Apr 15, 2026
Antofagasta reported first-quarter 2026 copper production of 143,000 tonnes, down 8% year-on-year due to lower processing rates and grades at its main concentrators, while gold output rose 8% and molybdenum was broadly stable. Despite higher under...
Executive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Antofagasta Grants New LTIP Awards and Pays Out Over £10m as 2023–25 Incentives Vest
Positive
Apr 1, 2026
Antofagasta has granted new long-term incentive plan awards to a group of senior executives and general managers, including CEO Iván Arriagada, with performance and restricted awards referenced to a total of 227,867 notional shares. The award...
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Antofagasta Publishes 2025 Annual Report and Sets Date for 2026 AGM
Neutral
Mar 26, 2026
Antofagasta has published its 2025 Annual Report and Accounts alongside the 2026 Notice of Annual General Meeting, making these documents available via the UK’s National Storage Mechanism and on the company’s website. The filings inclu...
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Antofagasta Publishes 2025 Annual Report and Sets Date for 2026 AGM
Neutral
Mar 26, 2026
Antofagasta has published its 2025 Annual Report and Accounts alongside the 2026 Notice of Annual General Meeting, making these documents available through the UK Financial Conduct Authority’s National Storage Mechanism and on the company...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Antofagasta Refreshes Board Committee Membership Ahead of April 2026
Neutral
Mar 11, 2026
Antofagasta has announced changes to the composition of its board committees, effective 1 April 2026, as part of an update to its governance structure. Newly appointed non-executive director Andrónico Luksic Lederer will join both the Sustain...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Antofagasta Posts Record EBITDA and Boosts Payout as Growth Projects Peak
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
Antofagasta reported a 52% jump in EBITDA to a record $5.2 billion for 2025, as revenue climbed 30% to $8.6 billion on higher copper, gold and molybdenum prices and increased volumes. The EBITDA margin widened to 60%, earnings per share more than ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.