Antofagasta (ANTO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £40.99B
• Dividend Yield: 0.92%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.22M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 41.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.89
• Revenue Growth: 13.52%
• EPS Growth: 38.75%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 8,095
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Copper
• EPS (TTM): 0.61
• Shares Outstanding: 985,856,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,004,434
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,219,046
• PEG Ratio: 0.51
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.19
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.94
• P/FCF Ratio: -113.21
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £3,606.92
• Price Target Upside: -13.25% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.68
• Revenue Forecast (FY): £9.84B

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: 4,901.00p ▲(17.87% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Upgraded 02/18/26

The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial performance and a strong technical uptrend, reinforced by a constructive earnings outlook with funded growth projects. Offsetting these positives are elevated valuation (high P/E, low yield) and balance-sheet/free-cash-flow risks from higher leverage and recent negative FCF during peak CapEx.

Positive Factors

Fully funded growth pipeline

Management reports a fully financed, on-time growth program (Centinela 2nd concentrator >70% complete, commissioning 2027, ramping through 2028–29) targeting ~30% production growth. This structurally increases scale and future cash generation potential, lowering long-term unit costs and enhancing competitive position.

Record financial performance and cash generation

Record revenue, EBITDA and elevated 60% EBITDA margin with materially higher operating cash flow demonstrate durable earnings power and strong cash conversion. These fundamentals support reinvestment in growth projects, maintain dividend capacity, and provide a buffer through commodity cycles over the medium term.

Low cost base and cost discipline

Sustained low unit costs across assets, material by‑product credits and targeted competitiveness savings create a durable cost advantage. Structural low costs improve margin resiliency across cycles, enabling the company to retain profitability and cash generation through commodity downcycles and support long-term returns.

Negative Factors

Rapidly increased leverage

A marked step-up in gross debt to ~£7.7bn in 2025 materially increases leverage versus prior years. Higher leverage reduces financial flexibility, raises refinancing and interest risks if copper weakens, and limits optionality for M&A or accelerated shareholder returns absent sustained cash generation improvements.

Inconsistent and recent negative free cash flow

Despite strong operating cash flow, inconsistent free cash flow and a -£384m outflow in 2025 reflect heavy capex and working-capital timing. This pattern constrains net-debt reduction or extra shareholder distributions and increases reliance on cash reserves or debt to fund the growth program over the medium term.

Peak CapEx with execution, labour and permitting risks

The company is in a peak-capex phase that requires flawless execution. Planned collective bargaining at key sites and pending permits (e.g., mine-life extensions) create multi-year operational risks. Delays or labor disputes could push out production ramps, raise unit costs, and defer expected cash generation.

Antofagasta Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Antofagasta plc operates as a mining company. It operates through Los Pelambres, Centinela, Antucoya, Zaldívar, Exploration and Evaluation, and Transport Division segments. The company holds a 60% interest in the Los Pelambres mine, a 70% interest in the Centinela mine, a 70% interest in the Antucoya mine, and a 50% interest in the Zaldívar mine located in Chile. Its mines produce copper cathodes and copper concentrates, as well as molybdenum, gold, and silver by-products. The company also has exploration projects in various countries. In addition, it provides rail and road cargo services to mining customers in northern Chile. The company was founded in 1888 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom. Antofagasta plc is a subsidiary of Metalinvest Establishment.

How the Company Makes Money

Antofagasta generates revenue primarily through the sale of copper, which is its main product, accounting for a significant portion of its earnings. The company sells copper in various forms, including cathodes and concentrates, to global markets, benefiting from the high demand for copper in industries such as construction, electronics, and renewable energy. Additionally, Antofagasta earns revenue from the sale of by-products like molybdenum and gold. The company's revenue model is supported by its operational efficiency and cost management strategies, which help maintain profitability even in fluctuating market conditions. Significant partnerships with international trading firms and logistics companies also enhance its distribution capabilities, while long-term contracts with customers provide stable revenue streams. Fluctuations in copper prices and operational performance in its mines are key factors influencing its earnings.

Antofagasta Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong income statement momentum (2025 revenue up sharply and solid profitability) and improving operating cash flow, but rising leverage (notably higher debt in 2025) and uneven/negative free cash flow in recent years reduce financial flexibility and increase cyclicality risk.

Income Statement

Revenue accelerated sharply in 2025 (annual report revenue up ~58% vs. 2024), and profitability remains solid with strong gross profit and EBIT levels. However, margins show volatility across the cycle (notably higher profitability in 2021–2022 vs. lower in 2023–2024), and net income fell materially from 2022 levels, underscoring commodity-price sensitivity.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a sizable equity base (equity consistently near ~£8.4–10.4B) supporting asset growth, but leverage has increased meaningfully: total debt rose from ~£4.1B (2023) to ~£5.3B (2024) and ~£7.7B (2025). Prior years showed moderate debt relative to equity (debt-to-equity ~0.38–0.57 in 2020–2024), but the 2025 step-up in debt raises balance-sheet risk if commodity conditions weaken.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is positive and improving into 2025 (~£3.38B vs. ~£2.29B in 2024), indicating healthy cash generation from operations. The key weakness is inconsistent free cash flow: strong positive in 2020–2021 and 2023, but negative in 2022, 2024, and 2025 (including ~-£384M in 2025), suggesting heavier capital spending and/or working-capital swings that pressure cash available to shareholders and debt reduction.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.80B	6.61B	6.32B	5.86B	7.47B
Gross Profit	4.31B	2.50B	2.66B	2.43B	4.35B
EBITDA	5.36B	3.81B	3.30B	2.76B	4.63B
Net Income	1.36B	829.40M	835.10M	1.53B	1.29B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	26.43B	22.63B	19.65B	18.24B	17.28B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.91B	4.32B	3.38B	2.39B	3.71B
Total Debt	7.73B	5.35B	4.08B	3.27B	3.17B
Total Liabilities	11.99B	9.68B	7.60B	6.59B	6.25B
Stockholders Equity	10.37B	9.46B	8.95B	8.63B	8.35B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-384.19M	-129.30M	203.80M	-2.30M	1.89B
Operating Cash Flow	3.38B	2.29B	2.33B	1.88B	3.67B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.57B	-2.08B	-2.09B	-477.50M	-2.20B
Financing Cash Flow	741.13M	1.35B	-402.00M	-1.33B	-1.95B

Antofagasta Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 4158.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:ANTO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4158 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3902.60, above the 50-day MA of 3644.20, and above the 200-day MA of 2628.20, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 184.82 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:ANTO.

Antofagasta Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CAML	74 Outperform	£409.22M	14.87	9.97%	5.15%	5.70%	-9.60%
FRES	73 Outperform	£30.36B	88.78	11.97%	2.05%	34.84%	78.48%
ANTO	70 Outperform	£40.99B	41.73	11.88%	0.92%	13.52%	38.75%
ATYM	65 Neutral	£1.56B	20.59	15.06%	0.74%	23.97%	216.41%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
GLEN	60 Neutral	£62.55B	231.17	-5.26%	1.89%	-1.06%	-285.88%
AAL	56 Neutral	£38.74B	-13.55	-9.21%	0.80%	-27.65%	-160.77%

Antofagasta Corporate Events

Antofagasta Posts Record EBITDA and Boosts Payout as Growth Projects Peak

Antofagasta reported a 52% jump in EBITDA to a record $5.2 billion for 2025, as revenue climbed 30% to $8.6 billion on higher copper, gold and molybdenum prices and increased volumes. The EBITDA margin widened to 60%, earnings per share more than doubled on an underlying basis, and the miner proposed a final dividend of 48 cents per share, maintaining a 50% payout ratio while keeping net debt to EBITDA at a modest 0.53.

Capital expenditure peaked at $3.7 billion in 2025 as major growth projects at Centinela and Los Pelambres progressed on time and on budget, positioning the company for about 30% medium-term production growth and lower costs. The group sustained strong safety performance, robust cash generation and a growing cash pile, while reaffirming 2026 copper output guidance of 650,000–700,000 tonnes and signalling continued investment of $3.4 billion in capex to reinforce its standing among leading copper producers.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ANTO) stock is a Hold with a £3700.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Antofagasta stock, see the GB:ANTO Stock Forecast page.

Antofagasta Sets 17 February Date for 2025 Full-Year Results and Investor Presentation

Antofagasta plc will publish its full-year results for 2025 on 17 February 2026, with the announcement and accompanying presentation slides released on the company’s website early that morning, followed by a transcript made available after the event. Management, including the CEO, CFO and Vice President of Sustainability, will host a hybrid results presentation and Q&A at the London Stock Exchange, open to all investors in person, online or via telephone, underlining the company’s focus on transparent engagement with the market ahead of what could be a closely watched update for stakeholders in the copper and broader mining sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ANTO) stock is a Buy with a £4410.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Antofagasta stock, see the GB:ANTO Stock Forecast page.

Antofagasta Cuts Net Costs to Five-Year Low as Growth Projects Stay on Track

Antofagasta reported a strong finish to 2025, with fourth-quarter copper production rising 9% to 177,000 tonnes and full-year net cash costs dropping 27% to $1.19 per pound, a five-year low, helped by higher gold and molybdenum by-product output and firmer gold prices. While full-year copper production edged down 2% to 653,700 tonnes, gold output climbed 13% and molybdenum surged 48%, underscoring the benefit of the group’s diversified by-product stream. Management reaffirmed that its major growth projects at Centinela and Los Pelambres remain on time and on budget and are expected to be completed in 2027, ultimately adding around 30% to copper volumes and lowering costs, supported by a planned $3.4 billion in capital expenditure for 2026. The company guided 2026 copper production to 650,000–700,000 tonnes with broadly stable net cash costs of $1.15–$1.35 per pound, and highlighted continued progress on key infrastructure including the Centinela Second Concentrator, Los Pelambres’ pipeline and desalination expansions, and long-term water supply and exploration initiatives. Antofagasta also maintained a strong safety record with another fatality-free year and secured several multi-year labour agreements, reducing operational risk as it scales up its growth programme in a structurally tight copper market.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ANTO) stock is a Hold with a £4060.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Antofagasta stock, see the GB:ANTO Stock Forecast page.

Antofagasta Reshapes Board as Luksic Family Roles Shift

Antofagasta plc has announced that long-serving non-executive director Andrónico Luksic Craig has resigned from its board with effect from 27 January 2026 and will not receive any loss-of-office payments beyond accrued remuneration. The company is appointing Andrónico Luksic Lederer, currently Vice President of Development and an executive committee member, as a non-executive director from 1 March 2026, following his resignation from his executive role to become Deputy Chairman of Quiñenco S.A. The board has clarified that Luksic Lederer, who has played a central role in major strategic transactions and exploration-led growth, will not be considered independent under the UK Corporate Governance Code, underscoring the continued influence of the Luksic family over Antofagasta’s governance while aiming to leverage his experience to support future project development and regional expansion.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ANTO) stock is a Hold with a £4113.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Antofagasta stock, see the GB:ANTO Stock Forecast page.