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Antofagasta
(LSE:ANTO)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
3,836.00 p
▲(5.65% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:08/17/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying operating performance but constrained by weaker cash conversion (recent negative free cash flow) and a higher-risk balance sheet after increased leverage. Technicals are soft with the stock trading below key moving averages, and valuation is not especially supportive given the high P/E and modest yield. The earnings call adds a positive offset via strong H1 results and stable cost guidance, though near-term production was reduced due to weather impacts.
Positive Factors
Revenue and Profit Growth
Sharp revenue growth and solid EBIT indicate strong operating performance and copper demand exposure. Although cyclical, this earnings base supports reinvestment and strengthens the company’s ability to fund growth projects.
Negative Factors
Higher Financial Leverage
The substantial debt increase raises financial risk for a cyclical miner. If copper prices weaken or projects are delayed, higher interest, lease and funding obligations could reduce flexibility and compete with dividends or expansion spending.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and Profit Growth
Sharp revenue growth and solid EBIT indicate strong operating performance and copper demand exposure. Although cyclical, this earnings base supports reinvestment and strengthens the company’s ability to fund growth projects.
Read all positive factors
Antofagasta (ANTO) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£35.65B
Dividend Yield1.35%
Average Volume (3M)1.22M
Price to Earnings (P/E)28.6
Beta (1Y)2.00
Revenue Growth20.22%
EPS Growth46.11%
CountryUK
Employees8,457
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCopper
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.68
Shares Outstanding985,856,700
10 Day Avg. Volume1,004,434
30 Day Avg. Volume1,219,046
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.51
Price to Book (P/B)4.19
Price to Sales (P/S)4.94
P/FCF Ratio-113.21
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£3,869.09Price Target Upside6.56% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)1.89
Revenue Forecast (FY)£10.33B
Antofagasta Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Antofagasta plc operates as a mining company. It operates through Los Pelambres, Centinela, Antucoya, Zaldívar, Exploration and Evaluation, and Transport Division segments. The company produces copper cathodes and copper concentrates; molybdenum c...
How the Company Makes Money
Antofagasta makes money mainly by selling copper products produced from its mines. Its primary revenue stream is the sale of copper (typically as copper concentrate and/or copper cathodes), with realized revenues largely driven by production volum...
Antofagasta Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 13, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 23, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a predominantly positive operating and financial picture: robust H1 results (EBITDA +27%, cash flow +53%), strong margins (63%), reduced net cash costs (‑8%), continued project progress and full funding of a low‑risk growth pipeline, and continued emphasis on safety. However, notable near‑term risks were highlighted: severe weather at Pelambres that reduced production guidance (now 625,000–655,000 tonnes) and deferred higher‑grade ore, inflationary pressure on diesel and sulfuric acid (with some contractual exposure for 2027), additional lease liabilities (~$630m), and localized technical work at Centinela. On balance, the company emphasized cost discipline, secured supply/contracts, and that major projects remain on track and funded, suggesting strengths outweigh the near‑term operational headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
EBITDA increased 27% to $2.84 billion in H1 2026; EBITDA margin reached an industry-leading 63%. Cash flow from operations rose 53% year‑on‑year. Interim dividend of $0.301 was declared (consistent with 35% minimum payout policy), representing an ~80–81% increase versus last year.
Negative Updates
Severe Storm Impact at Pelambres and Production Guidance Cut
Severe weather (El Niño event) at Pelambres led to suspension and orderly restart of operations; approximately 5 million cubic meters of snow to be removed. Company lowered full‑year copper production guidance to 625,000–655,000 tonnes and noted deferral of higher‑grade ore feeding into the plant, with risk of further winter disruption remaining.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Financial Performance
EBITDA increased 27% to $2.84 billion in H1 2026; EBITDA margin reached an industry-leading 63%. Cash flow from operations rose 53% year‑on‑year. Interim dividend of $0.301 was declared (consistent with 35% minimum payout policy), representing an ~80–81% increase versus last year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management kept net cash cost guidance unchanged at $1.15–$1.35/lb for 2026 while lowering full‑year copper production guidance to 625,000–655,000 tonnes to reflect the Pelambres storm disruption (management noted ~5 million m3 of snow cleared and that guidance embeds winter weather contingency). H1 showed EBITDA up 27% to $2.84bn, a record 63% EBITDA margin, operating cash flow +53% and an interim dividend of $0.301 (c.80–81% increase, consistent with a 35% minimum payout); net cash cost was down ~8% year‑on‑year. Capital metrics: group CapEx guidance of $3.4bn for 2026 (2025: $3.7bn) with peak spend behind, sustaining CapEx run‑rate ~$1.0–$1.5bn pa, Centinela spend to date ~$3.3bn, commissioning due in 2027 with ramp‑up in 2028, a $2.5bn project facility to be drawn as planned, the growth pipeline is fully funded and targets ~30% volume uplift on commissioning, Zaldivar water pipeline investment approved at $900m, and ~$630m of lease liabilities were added to net debt.Antofagasta Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 9.32B | 8.80B | 6.61B | 6.32B | 5.86B | 7.47B |
| Gross Profit | 4.97B | 4.31B | 2.50B | 2.66B | 2.43B | 4.35B |
| EBITDA | 5.65B | 5.36B | 3.81B | 3.30B | 2.76B | 4.63B |
| Net Income | 1.66B | 1.36B | 829.40M | 835.10M | 1.53B | 1.29B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 27.40B | 26.43B | 22.63B | 19.65B | 18.24B | 17.28B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.16B | 4.91B | 4.32B | 3.38B | 2.39B | 3.71B |
| Total Debt | 8.13B | 7.73B | 5.35B | 4.08B | 3.27B | 3.17B |
| Total Liabilities | 12.32B | 11.99B | 9.68B | 7.60B | 6.59B | 6.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.75B | 10.37B | 9.46B | 8.95B | 8.63B | 8.35B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -93.41M | -384.19M | -129.30M | 203.80M | -2.30M | 1.89B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.60B | 3.38B | 2.29B | 2.33B | 1.88B | 3.67B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.16B | -3.57B | -2.08B | -2.09B | -477.50M | -2.20B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -705.46M | 741.13M | 1.35B | -402.00M | -1.33B | -1.95B |
Antofagasta Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | £1.42B | 14.60 | 16.00% | 1.03% | 20.02% | 42.42% | |
70 Outperform | £253.91M | -4.73 | -22.86% | 8.13% | 3.81% | -240.81% | |
64 Neutral | £35.65B | 28.64 | 10.67% | 1.32% | 20.22% | 46.11% | |
64 Neutral | £21.59B | 12.57 | 46.50% | 3.74% | 47.70% | 382.60% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
59 Neutral | £64.79B | 16.48 | 0.96% | 2.07% | 26.71% | ― | |
55 Neutral | £42.39B | -22.36 | -15.45% | 0.46% | -13.95% | 40.97% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
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Antofagasta Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Antofagasta Delivers Higher Profits and Cash Flow as Copper Prices Surge and Growth Projects Advance
Positive
Aug 13, 2026
Antofagasta reported a strong first half of 2026, with revenue up 18% to $4.48 billion and EBITDA rising 27% to $2.84 billion, lifting the EBITDA margin to 63.4%. Higher realised copper, gold and molybdenum prices, tighter cost control and working...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Antofagasta Sets Virtual Investor Q&A for 2026 Half-Year Results
Positive
Aug 3, 2026
Antofagasta plc will publish its half-year results for the period ended 30 June 2026 on 13 August, with an announcement, presentation video, slides and transcript available on its website from 7:00 a.m. UK time. The company is providing investors ...
Business Operations and Strategy
Antofagasta Restarts Los Pelambres After Storm Shutdown With Guidance Intact
Positive
Jul 24, 2026
Antofagasta said its Los Pelambres copper operation in Chile has returned to production after an orderly shutdown triggered by an intense weather system that brought heavy rainfall and intermittent power outages across several regions. The miner r...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Antofagasta Holds Guidance as Growth Projects Advance and Costs Rise
Positive
Jul 15, 2026
Antofagasta reported steady second-quarter 2026 operating performance, with copper output at 142,000 tonnes, broadly flat quarter-on-quarter but 9% lower year-to-date, while gold and molybdenum production remained stable versus the previous quarte...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Antofagasta Details 2025 Government Payments and New Chilean Royalty Impact
Neutral
Jun 30, 2026
Antofagasta plc has published its 2025 Report on Payments to Governments, detailing taxes and other specified payments linked to its mining operations for the year to 31 December 2025. The report is prepared under UK regulations implementing the E...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Antofagasta Details 2025 Government Payments Under Chile’s Mining Tax Regime
Neutral
Jun 30, 2026
Antofagasta plc has published its 2025 Report on Payments to Governments, detailing taxes and other specified payments tied to its mining activities for the year to 31 December 2025. The vast majority of these payments, over 99%, were made in Chil...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.