Glencore PLC (GB:GLEN)
LSE:GLEN
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Glencore
(LSE:GLEN)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
604.00 p
▲(10.40% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:02/19/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance: revenue and earnings recovered, but margins are extremely thin, leverage is rising, and free-cash-flow conversion is weak. Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend above key moving averages. Valuation is a notable headwind due to a very high P/E and only modest yield, while the latest earnings call added support via constructive guidance and copper-growth optionality despite several operational and cash-flow risk factors.
Positive Factors
Integrated model
Vertical integration of production and trading gives durable structural advantages: marketing smooths placement of owned output, captures location/quality arbitrage, and leverages logistics to protect margins. This reduces reliance on spot-sale timing and supports resilient revenue across cycles.
Negative Factors
Very thin margins
Persistently razor-thin net margins and poor free-cash-flow conversion limit the firm's ability to self-fund growth, pay sustained dividends, or rapidly de-lever through downturns. This heightens sensitivity to commodity price swings and working-capital timing over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Integrated model
Vertical integration of production and trading gives durable structural advantages: marketing smooths placement of owned output, captures location/quality arbitrage, and leverages logistics to protect margins. This reduces reliance on spot-sale timing and supports resilient revenue across cycles.
Read all positive factors
Glencore (GLEN) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£67.17B
Dividend Yield1.89%
Average Volume (3M)52.30M
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.1
Beta (1Y)1.36
Revenue Growth3.75%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUK
Employees84,146
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.04
Shares Outstanding11,735,355,000
10 Day Avg. Volume49,112,970
30 Day Avg. Volume52,303,286
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.42
Price to Book (P/B)1.68
Price to Sales (P/S)0.26
P/FCF Ratio165.16
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£615.00Price Target Upside12.41% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.54
Revenue Forecast (FY)£275.88B
Glencore Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Glencore plc produces, refines, processes, stores, transports, and markets metals and minerals, and energy products in the Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa, and Oceania. It operates through two segments, Marketing Activities and Industrial Activitie...
How the Company Makes Money
Glencore primarily makes money through two interconnected activities: (1) Industrial production and sales, and (2) Marketing (commodities trading, logistics and supply).
1) Industrial production and sales (Mining/Energy)
- Revenue is generated by...
Glencore Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a materially positive tone driven by strong full-year adjusted EBITDA ($13.5bn), marked H2 momentum (50% half-on-half improvement), a robust metals trading and copper performance, successful operational delivery (guidance met for the second year), and a well-progressed copper growth pipeline (Quechua acquisition, MARA/Pachon permitting, Alumbrera restart). These positives were tempered by notable headwinds — early-year weakness in coal markets, constrained cobalt sales (DRC quota impacts), a significant copper volume shortfall at Collahuasi, working capital swings, a sizable UK tax payment recorded as receivable, two fatalities in 2025, and some impairments — but management presented clear remediation actions (cost program, portfolio optimization, monetizations) and maintained disciplined capital guidance and shareholder return focus. Overall, highlights outweigh the challenges, and management projects further upside in spot scenarios.Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA of $13.5 billion for FY2025, with the industrial segment contributing close to $10 billion and marketing delivering $2.9 billion adjusted EBIT (back in the middle of the new range).
Negative Updates
Coal Segment Weakness and Early-Year Headwinds
Energy and steelmaking coal trading and prices were weaker in the first half of the year, producing a negative year-on-year price variance (coal contributed a -$2.4 billion swing in the waterfall analysis); although markets strengthened in H2, the segment lagged metals overall.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Full-Year EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA of $13.5 billion for FY2025, with the industrial segment contributing close to $10 billion and marketing delivering $2.9 billion adjusted EBIT (back in the middle of the new range).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Glencore reiterated a constructive outlook: 2025 adjusted EBITDA was $13.5bn (industrial ~ $9.9–10bn; marketing EBIT $2.9bn) and management showed a spot-illustrative EBITDA run‑rate of ~ $18.1bn with spot free cash flow of ~ $7bn (metals rising from ~$7bn to ~$11bn; industrial to ~$14.6bn); copper unit cash cost is shown at ~$1.85 (2026) falling to ~$1.18–1.08 by 2028–29 as copper production scales toward ~1.0Mt in the near term, ~1.6Mt with further upside and potentially >2Mt by 2035 (including Collahuasi snap‑back and KCC expansion to ~300ktpa). CapEx guidance was unchanged at an average ~$6.5bn p.a. for 2026–28 (net CapEx 2025 $6.9bn; EVR averaging ~ $1.3bn p.a.), they declared a $2bn dividend, reiterated a long‑term net debt target of ~$10bn, noted RMI increases (copper avg price up ~44% from ~$8,600 to ~$12,400 in 2025), and emphasized they met production guidance across key commodities for a second consecutive year.Glencore Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 252.75B | 230.94B | 217.83B | 255.98B | 203.75B |
| Gross Profit | 5.49B | 6.28B | 10.78B | 27.26B | 12.38B |
| EBITDA | 10.52B | 9.85B | 15.32B | 32.23B | 16.03B |
| Net Income | 370.62M | -1.63B | 4.28B | 17.32B | 4.97B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 142.25B | 130.46B | 123.87B | 132.58B | 127.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.95B | 2.17B | 1.95B | 1.97B | 2.69B |
| Total Debt | 42.76B | 38.11B | 32.24B | 28.78B | 34.64B |
| Total Liabilities | 108.63B | 94.80B | 85.63B | 87.36B | 90.59B |
| Stockholders Equity | 38.87B | 40.67B | 43.58B | 49.41B | 39.93B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 395.12M | 4.44B | 6.55B | 9.48B | 5.24B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.45B | 10.05B | 11.04B | 13.66B | 8.86B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.95B | -11.72B | -3.56B | -1.72B | -541.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.00B | 2.14B | -7.49B | -13.20B | -6.52B |
Glencore Technical Analysis
Positive
547.10
Price Trends
526.28
Positive
475.75
Positive
398.72
Positive
Market Momentum
9.98
Positive
51.97
Neutral
22.00
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:GLEN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 547.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 548.54, above the 50-day MA of 526.28, and above the 200-day MA of 398.72, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 9.98 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:GLEN.
Glencore Risk Analysis
Glencore disclosed 11 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Glencore reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Glencore Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | £134.45B | 6.00 | 16.59% | 4.75% | 4.05% | -16.51% | |
63 Neutral | £41.36B | -6.53 | -20.10% | 0.80% | -34.37% | -23.82% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
60 Neutral | £67.17B | 16.06 | 0.96% | 1.89% | 3.75% | ― | |
47 Neutral | £96.38M | -2.48 | -17.08% | ― | ― | ― | |
46 Neutral | £130.65M | -19.26 | -15.04% | ― | ― | 36.62% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
GB:GLEN
Glencore
574.30
316.78
123.01%
GB:AAL
Anglo American
3,833.00
1,811.60
89.62%
GB:ALL
Atlantic Lithium
16.30
9.40
136.23%
GB:JLP
Jubilee Metals Group
2.99
-0.91
-23.33%
GB:RIO
Rio Tinto
7,766.00
3,348.97
75.82%
Glencore Corporate Events
DividendsShareholder Meetings
Glencore Sets Multi-Currency Capital Return for H1 2026
Positive
May 15, 2026
Glencore plans a capital return of $0.085 per ordinary share in the first half of 2026, subject to shareholder approval at its upcoming annual general meeting, with payment scheduled for 3 June 2026 to shareholders on the Jersey register as of 8 M...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Glencore Publishes 2025 Payments to Governments Report
Positive
May 8, 2026
Glencore has published its Payments to Governments Report for the year ended 31 December 2025, in line with UK disclosure and transparency requirements and made it available on its website and via the UK Financial Conduct Authority’s Nationa...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Glencore Publishes 2025 Payments to Governments Report
Neutral
May 8, 2026
Glencore has published its Payments to Governments Report for the year ended 31 December 2025, making the document available on its website in line with UK disclosure and transparency rules. The report has also been submitted to the Financial Cond...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Glencore Holds 2026 Output Guidance as Higher Prices Offset Cost Pressures
Positive
Apr 30, 2026
Glencore reported first-quarter 2026 production broadly in line with expectations, keeping full-year guidance unchanged despite mine closures in Australia and operational challenges. Copper output rose 19% on stronger grades in Africa and at Peru&...
Regulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Glencore Publishes Notice for 2026 Annual General Meeting in Zug
Neutral
Apr 29, 2026
Glencore has published the notice and proxy materials for its 2026 annual general meeting, scheduled for 28 May 2026 at the Theater-Casino in Zug, Switzerland, and has begun making these documents available or posting them to shareholders. The AGM...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Glencore CEO Gary Nagle Receives Vesting of Long-Term Share Awards
Neutral
Mar 23, 2026
Glencore has disclosed that Chief Executive Officer Gary Nagle has received the vesting of previously granted share-based awards under the company’s Deferred Bonus Award and Restricted Share Plan. The vesting, which follows a three-year peri...
Executive/Board Changes
Glencore awards 1.5 million career share units to CEO Gary Nagle
Neutral
Mar 11, 2026
Glencore, the global diversified natural resources group based in Baar, Switzerland, is a leading producer and marketer of over 60 commodities and operates an integrated marketing and industrial platform across more than 30 countries. Its customer...
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Glencore Publishes 2025 Annual Report and Sets Date for 2026 AGM
Neutral
Mar 10, 2026
Glencore has published its 2025 Annual Report for the year ended 31 December 2025, making the document and other key components of its annual reporting suite available on its website and through the UK Financial Conduct Authority’s National ...
DividendsShareholder Meetings
Glencore Proposes US$0.17 Per Share 2025 Distribution in Two 2026 Tranches
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
Glencore has proposed a total shareholder distribution of US$0.17 per share for the 2025 financial year, to be paid in two equal tranches of US$0.085 during the first and second halves of 2026. The payout, drawn from capital contribution reserves,...
Business Operations and Strategy
Glencore Secures Key Land Deal to Extend Life of Kamoto Copper Mine
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
Glencore has finalised an agreement with Democratic Republic of Congo state miner Gécamines to secure long‑term land access for Kamoto Copper Company, its key copper operation in the country. The deal grants KCC expanded mining titles a...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Glencore Bets on Copper-Led Growth as 2025 Profit Rebounds
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
Glencore reported preliminary 2025 results showing revenue up 7% to $247.5 billion but Adjusted EBITDA down 6% to $13.5 billion, as weaker energy and steelmaking coal prices offset stronger metals pricing and a robust second half. Net income swung...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.