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Glencore PLC (GB:GLEN)
LSE:GLEN
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Glencore (GLEN) AI Stock Analysis

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GB:GLEN

Glencore

(LSE:GLEN)

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Neutral 68 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
414.00p
▲(9.26% Upside)
Glencore's overall stock score is driven by a positive earnings call outlook and strong technical momentum. However, financial performance challenges, particularly in profitability and cash flow, and a negative P/E ratio weigh on the score. The company's strategic initiatives and shareholder returns provide some support.
Positive Factors
Strategic Partnerships
The strategic equity investment and long-term offtake rights with PPX Mining enhance Glencore's supply chain stability and market access, ensuring consistent supply from a high-quality Peruvian project, which can strengthen its market position and revenue streams.
Cost Savings Initiatives
The focus on cost-saving initiatives across coal, copper, and zinc-nickel divisions can improve operational efficiency and margin sustainability, enhancing long-term profitability and competitiveness in the resource sector.
Marketing Business Resilience
The strong performance in the marketing segment, with increased EBIT, highlights Glencore's ability to navigate challenging market conditions, supporting stable cash flows and reinforcing its competitive advantage in commodity trading.
Negative Factors
Declining Free Cash Flow
The declining trend in free cash flow growth, despite strong operating cash flows, poses a risk to Glencore's ability to fund operations and investments without increasing leverage, potentially impacting long-term financial health.
Rising Leverage
The increase in leverage, indicated by the rising debt-to-equity ratio, could constrain Glencore's financial flexibility, limiting its capacity to invest in growth opportunities or weather economic downturns without incurring additional debt.
Profitability Challenges
Negative net profit margins reflect ongoing profitability challenges, which can undermine investor confidence and limit the company's ability to reinvest in its business, potentially affecting long-term growth and competitive positioning.

Glencore (GLEN) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Glencore Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGlencore PLC is a leading integrated producer and marketer of commodities, headquartered in Baar, Switzerland. The company operates through various sectors, including metals and minerals, energy products, and agricultural products. Glencore's core offerings encompass the extraction, production, and distribution of commodities such as copper, zinc, nickel, coal, oil, and agricultural goods. With a global presence, Glencore plays a pivotal role in connecting producers and consumers in the commodity supply chain.
How the Company Makes MoneyGlencore generates revenue through a diversified business model that includes both commodity trading and production. The company's primary revenue streams come from the sale of metals and minerals, energy products, and agricultural commodities. In the metals and minerals sector, Glencore earns income by mining and selling copper, zinc, nickel, and cobalt, either directly or through trading operations. The energy segment contributes significantly to revenue through the production and marketing of oil and coal. Additionally, Glencore’s agricultural products division generates revenue by trading grains, oilseeds, and other agricultural commodities. The company benefits from its extensive logistics and marketing network, which allows it to optimize supply chains and manage price volatility. Strategic partnerships with mining operations and agricultural producers further enhance its market position and profitability.

Glencore Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a positive outlook for Glencore, despite challenges in coal pricing and operational delays in copper production. Strong contributions from the zinc and gold segments, successful EVR integration, and resilient marketing performance were key highlights. The company is also focused on cost-saving initiatives and returning value to shareholders.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Despite weaker commodity markets and economic uncertainties, Glencore reported an adjusted EBITDA of $5.4 billion for the first half of 2025.
Zinc and Gold Production Success
The zinc gold business, particularly in Kazakhstan, showed strong results despite low coal prices.
EVR Acquisition Contribution
EVR contributed $786 million to adjusted EBITDA, highlighting successful integration and value creation.
Marketing Business Resilience
Adjusted marketing EBIT reached $1.4 billion, annualizing above the middle of the old range, with an increase in the marketing range to $2.3 billion to $3.5 billion.
Cost Savings Initiatives
Glencore announced approximately $1 billion in annualized cost savings, with significant operational and structural improvements.
Shareholder Returns
Glencore announced $3.2 billion in shareholder returns, including dividends and buybacks.
Negative Updates
Coal Price Decline
Coal prices fell significantly, with Newcastle prices down 21% and hard coking coal prices down 33% year-over-year, impacting industrial EBITDA.
Cobalt Sales Challenges
Cobalt sales were impacted by stockpiling due to export bans, affecting cash flow and operational performance in the DRC.
Operational Delays in Copper Production
Copper production was heavily weighted towards the second half of the year, causing temporary operational challenges.
Energy Market Volatility
Energy and steel marketing faced challenging conditions with geopolitical uncertainties, impacting earnings in those segments.
Company Guidance
During the Glencore 2025 Half Year Results Conference Call, the company provided detailed guidance on its financial performance and future expectations. Glencore reported an adjusted EBITDA of $5.4 billion for the first half of 2025, with $3.8 billion coming from its industrial asset business despite low coal prices. The company highlighted a strong performance from its zinc gold business in Kazakhstan and noted a temporary mismatch in copper production, with 60% expected in the second half. The marketing business achieved an adjusted EBIT of $1.4 billion, surpassing the middle of its previous range, prompting an increase in the marketing range to $2.3 billion to $3.5 billion ex Viterra. Glencore's net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio stood at 1.08, slightly over its 1x target, and the company generated $4.3 billion in cash from operating activities. Shareholder returns for 2025 were announced at $3.2 billion, including base dividends and up to $2 billion in buybacks. The company also outlined approximately $1 billion in annualized cost savings across its operations by 2026, primarily from coal, copper, and zinc-nickel divisions.

Glencore Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Glencore exhibits mixed financial health. Revenue growth is present, but declining margins and profitability are concerning. The balance sheet shows manageable leverage but decreasing equity returns. Cash flow statements highlight strong operating cash flow but a declining trend in free cash flow. Overall, the company faces challenges in profitability and cash flow growth amidst a stable but leveraged financial position.
Income Statement
60
Neutral
Glencore's income statement reflects a volatile performance with significant fluctuations in revenue and profitability. The gross profit margin has decreased over the years, falling to 2.88% in 2024 from 4.95% in 2023. The net profit margin turned negative in 2024 at -0.71%, a decline from 1.96% in 2023, indicating profitability challenges. Revenue growth from 2023 to 2024 was modest at 6.01%, but this follows a substantial decline from 2022. Despite a positive EBITDA margin of 3.69% in 2024, the absence of EBIT highlights operational challenges.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet indicates a stable equity base with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.94 in 2024, which is manageable but has increased from previous years. The equity ratio stands at 31.17%, down from 35.17% in 2023, suggesting increased leverage. Return on equity turned negative in 2024 at -4.02%, reflecting profitability issues. Overall, the balance sheet shows reasonable stability, but rising leverage and diminished equity returns pose concerns.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
Cash flow analysis shows a decrease in free cash flow from 2023 to 2024, reflecting a negative growth rate of -32.15%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 6.15 in 2024, indicating strong operating cash flows relative to net income, despite the latter being negative. The free cash flow to net income ratio is -2.72, highlighting cash flow challenges. Overall, the company maintains robust operating cash generation, but declining free cash flow growth and negative net income are concerning.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue231.25B230.94B217.83B255.98B203.75B142.34B
Gross Profit5.76B6.28B10.78B27.26B12.38B3.70B
EBITDA9.15B9.85B15.32B32.23B16.03B3.13B
Net Income-2.06B-1.63B4.28B17.32B4.97B-1.90B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets132.18B130.46B123.87B132.58B127.51B118.00B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.70B2.17B1.95B1.97B2.69B1.42B
Total Debt42.34B38.11B32.24B28.78B34.64B37.48B
Total Liabilities99.39B94.80B85.63B87.36B90.59B83.60B
Stockholders Equity37.83B40.67B43.58B49.41B39.93B37.64B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow143.00M4.44B6.55B9.48B5.24B-905.00M
Operating Cash Flow6.06B10.05B11.04B13.66B8.86B2.66B
Investing Cash Flow-12.39B-11.72B-3.56B-1.72B-541.00M-2.71B
Financing Cash Flow6.20B2.14B-7.49B-13.20B-6.52B-320.00M

Glencore Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price378.90
Price Trends
50DMA
356.23
Positive
100DMA
328.58
Positive
200DMA
304.00
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
6.66
Negative
RSI
62.72
Neutral
STOCH
80.19
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:GLEN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 378.9 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 362.11, above the 50-day MA of 356.23, and above the 200-day MA of 304.00, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 6.66 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.19 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:GLEN.

Glencore Risk Analysis

Glencore disclosed 11 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Glencore reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Glencore Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
82
Outperform
£90.00B10.7818.43%5.20%-3.50%-7.04%
68
Neutral
£41.28B-26.72-5.26%1.97%-1.06%-285.88%
66
Neutral
$32.16B-9.21%0.82%-27.65%-160.77%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:GLEN
Glencore
378.90
-4.97
-1.29%
GB:AAL
Anglo American
2,930.00
466.49
18.94%
GB:RIO
Rio Tinto
5,476.00
661.76
13.75%

Glencore Corporate Events

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Glencore Advances Copper Production with Alumbrera Mine Restart
Positive
Dec 3, 2025

Glencore has announced significant advancements in its copper portfolio, aiming to produce approximately 1 million tonnes by 2028 and targeting 1.6 million tonnes by 2035. The company plans to restart the Alumbrera copper mine, enhancing its production capabilities and supporting its strategic growth in the copper sector. Additionally, Glencore is optimizing its operating structures to ensure accountability and reliability, while continuing to focus on shareholder value through strategic partnerships and investments. The company’s efforts align with the growing global demand for commodities driven by AI infrastructure and energy transition needs, positioning Glencore as a leading player in the natural resource industry.

Business Operations and Strategy
Glencore Hosts Capital Markets Day to Outline Strategic Direction
Neutral
Dec 3, 2025

Glencore plc announced it will host a Capital Markets Day presentation, providing stakeholders with insights into its operations and strategic direction. This event underscores Glencore’s commitment to transparency and engagement with investors and the public, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder relationships.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Glencore Updates Total Voting Rights and Shareholding Details
Neutral
Dec 1, 2025

Glencore has announced its total voting rights as of November 28, 2025, with an issued share capital consisting of over 13 billion ordinary shares, of which approximately 1.27 billion are held in treasury. This results in a total of 11.77 billion voting rights, which shareholders can use as a denominator for interest calculations under the Financial Conduct Authority’s rules. This update is crucial for stakeholders to understand their shareholding position and any necessary notifications regarding changes in their interest in the company.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Glencore Advances Share Buy-Back Program with UBS Transaction
Positive
Dec 1, 2025

Glencore plc announced the purchase of 7.2 million of its own shares from UBS AG as part of its ongoing buy-back program. The transaction, conducted off-market, aims to reduce the total number of shares in issue, enhancing shareholder value and aligning with the company’s strategic financial management goals.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Glencore Advances Share Buy-Back Program with UBS Purchase
Positive
Nov 21, 2025

Glencore plc announced the purchase of 9.6 million of its own shares from UBS AG as part of its ongoing buy-back program. This transaction, which is part of a strategy to manage share capital and enhance shareholder value, will result in the cancellation of the purchased shares, reducing the total number of shares in circulation.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Glencore Advances Share Buy-Back Programme with UBS Purchase
Positive
Nov 17, 2025

Glencore PLC announced the purchase of 9.6 million of its own shares from UBS AG as part of its ongoing buy-back programme. The shares were bought at a net price of CHF 2.5077 per share, with the transaction being part of a strategy to reduce the number of shares in circulation, thereby potentially increasing shareholder value. The buy-back programme, which began in July 2025, is expected to conclude by February 2026. This move is aligned with Glencore’s strategy to manage its equity exposure and optimize its capital structure.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Glencore Advances Share Buyback with UBS Transaction
Positive
Nov 10, 2025

Glencore plc announced the purchase of 6.4 million of its ordinary shares from UBS AG as part of its ongoing share buyback program. This transaction, conducted off-market, is aimed at reducing the number of shares in circulation and is expected to be completed by February 2026, aligning with the company’s financial results release. The buyback is part of a strategic move to enhance shareholder value and manage equity exposure, with the shares purchased intended for cancellation.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Glencore Updates on Share Capital and Voting Rights
Neutral
Nov 3, 2025

Glencore announced that as of October 31, 2025, its issued share capital consisted of 13,072,525,895 ordinary shares, with 11,804,416,854 shares carrying voting rights. This figure is crucial for shareholders to determine their notification requirements under the FCA’s rules. The announcement highlights Glencore’s transparency in shareholding and voting rights, which is significant for stakeholders monitoring changes in ownership and corporate governance.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Glencore Advances Share Buy-Back Program with UBS Transaction
Neutral
Nov 3, 2025

Glencore plc announced the purchase of 7.2 million of its ordinary shares from UBS AG as part of its ongoing buy-back program. The shares were bought for cancellation, reducing the total number of shares in issue to approximately 11.8 billion. This transaction is part of a broader strategy to manage the company’s capital structure and is expected to be completed by February 2026.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Glencore Maintains 2025 Production Guidance Amid Strong Q3 Performance
Positive
Oct 29, 2025

Glencore reported a strong third-quarter production performance, particularly in copper and coal, maintaining its full-year 2025 production guidance for key commodities. Copper production increased by 36% quarter-on-quarter, with significant contributions from KCC, Mutanda, Antamina, and Antapaccay. Zinc production rose by 10% year-to-date, while steelmaking and energy coal volumes are expected to meet the upper ends of guidance ranges. The company also highlighted a strategic focus on prioritizing copper production in the DRC over cobalt due to export quotas, with plans to store excess cobalt production in-country. The completion of the Pasar copper smelter sale and the cessation of operations at the Mount Isa copper mine were also noted.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Glencore Maintains 2025 Production Guidance Amid Strong Q3 Performance
Positive
Oct 29, 2025

Glencore reported a strong third quarter in 2025, particularly in copper and coal production, maintaining its full-year production guidance for key commodities. Copper production saw a significant increase of 36% quarter-on-quarter, driven by improved performance at several mines, while zinc production rose by 10% year-to-date. The company also highlighted a 123% rise in steelmaking coal production, attributed to the acquisition of EVR. Despite some declines in other areas like ferrochrome and nickel, Glencore remains confident in its marketing performance, expecting full-year adjusted EBIT to align with its long-term guidance range. The recent lifting of the cobalt export ban in the DRC, with new export quotas, will allow Glencore to prioritize copper production over cobalt, utilizing its inventory to meet quota allocations.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Glencore Advances Share Buyback with UBS Share Purchase
Positive
Oct 23, 2025

Glencore plc has announced the purchase of 10.8 million of its own shares from UBS AG as part of its ongoing share buyback program. The transaction, which was conducted off-market, is part of a strategy to reduce the number of shares in issue and is expected to be completed by February 2026. This move is aligned with Glencore’s efforts to enhance shareholder value and optimize its capital structure, reflecting confidence in its financial health and future prospects.

Business Operations and Strategy
Glencore to Host Capital Markets Day in December 2025
Neutral
Oct 21, 2025

Glencore plc announced it will host a Capital Markets Day presentation on December 3, 2025, at 1 pm UK time, which will be accessible via a live webcast. This event is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into Glencore’s strategic direction and operational plans, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Glencore Advances Share Buy-Back Program with UBS Transaction
Positive
Oct 20, 2025

Glencore PLC has announced the purchase of 10.8 million of its ordinary shares from UBS AG as part of its ongoing share buy-back program. The transaction, which was conducted off-market, aims to cancel the purchased shares, thereby reducing the total number of shares in issue and potentially enhancing shareholder value. This buy-back initiative, which began in July 2025, is expected to conclude by February 2026, aligning with the company’s financial results announcement. The purchase was executed in Swiss francs, with Swiss withholding tax deducted, and is part of a broader strategy to manage equity exposure and optimize capital structure.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Glencore Advances Share Buy-Back Program with UBS Transaction
Positive
Oct 13, 2025

Glencore plc announced the purchase of 10.8 million of its own shares from UBS AG as part of its ongoing share buy-back program. The shares were purchased at a net price of CHF 2.4803 each, with the transaction aimed at reducing the number of shares in circulation and enhancing shareholder value. This buy-back initiative, which began in July 2025, is expected to conclude by February 2026, aligning with the release of the company’s financial results. The transaction reflects Glencore’s strategic focus on optimizing its capital structure and underscores its commitment to returning value to shareholders.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Glencore Enhances Shareholder Value with Strategic Buy-Back
Positive
Oct 6, 2025

Glencore plc has announced the purchase of 7.2 million of its own shares from UBS AG as part of its ongoing share buy-back program. The shares were bought at a net price of CHF 2.3977 per share, with the transaction aimed at reducing the number of shares in circulation and enhancing shareholder value. This buy-back initiative is part of a broader strategy to optimize the company’s capital structure and is expected to conclude by February 2026, aligning with the release of its financial results for the year 2025.

Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Glencore Updates Shareholders on Total Voting Rights
Neutral
Oct 1, 2025

Glencore announced its total voting rights as of September 30, 2025, with an issued share capital of over 13 billion ordinary shares, of which approximately 11.85 billion carry voting rights. This update is crucial for shareholders to determine their notification requirements under the FCA’s rules. The announcement reflects Glencore’s ongoing transparency in its financial disclosures, impacting stakeholders’ understanding of their investment positions.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Glencore Advances Share Buy-Back Programme with UBS Transaction
Positive
Sep 29, 2025

Glencore plc has announced a transaction involving the purchase of 8 million of its own shares from UBS AG, as part of its ongoing share buy-back programme. The shares were bought at a net price of CHF 2.2867 per share, with the purchase price paid in Swiss francs. This transaction is part of Glencore’s strategy to reduce the number of shares in circulation, thereby potentially increasing shareholder value. The buy-back programme, which began in July 2025, is expected to conclude with the release of the company’s financial results in February 2026.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Glencore Advances Share Buy-Back Program with UBS Transaction
Positive
Sep 22, 2025

Glencore plc announced the purchase of 8 million of its own shares from UBS AG as part of its ongoing buy-back program. The shares were bought at a net price of CHF 2.1575 per share, with the transaction aimed at reducing the number of shares in circulation and enhancing shareholder value. This move is part of a broader strategy to manage equity exposure and optimize the company’s capital structure, with the buy-back program expected to conclude by February 2026.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Glencore Advances Share Buyback with UBS Transaction
Positive
Sep 15, 2025

Glencore plc has announced the purchase of 9.3 million of its own shares from UBS AG as part of its ongoing share buyback program. The transaction, conducted in Swiss francs, is part of a strategy to reduce the number of shares in circulation, thereby potentially increasing shareholder value. This buyback program, which began in July 2025, is expected to conclude by February 2026, aligning with the release of Glencore’s financial results for the year. The company aims to cancel the purchased shares, impacting the total number of voting rights and shares in issue, while maintaining a significant number of shares in treasury.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Glencore Advances Share Buyback Program with UBS Transaction
Positive
Sep 8, 2025

Glencore plc announced the purchase of 10,951,423 of its ordinary shares from UBS AG as part of its ongoing share buyback program. The shares were bought at a net price of CHF 2.0270 per share, with the transaction forming part of a strategy to reduce the number of shares in circulation and enhance shareholder value. This buyback program, which started in July 2025, is expected to conclude by February 2026, aligning with the release of the company’s financial results. The transaction reflects Glencore’s commitment to managing its capital structure efficiently and returning value to shareholders.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 07, 2025