Glencore PLC (GB:GLEN)
LSE:GLEN
Top Page
Glencore
(LSE:GLEN)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
593.00 p
â–²(5.22% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/19/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance: revenue and earnings recovered, but margins are extremely thin, leverage is rising, and free-cash-flow conversion is weak. Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend above key moving averages. Valuation is a notable headwind due to a very high P/E and only modest yield, while the latest earnings call added support via constructive guidance and copper-growth optionality despite several operational and cash-flow risk factors.
Positive Factors
Integrated industrial + marketing model
Glencore's vertically integrated model — owning production while operating a global trading and logistics franchise — creates durable margin and volume optionality. Integration lets the company optimize routes, timing and product mix, smooth revenue variability and monetize by-products over cycles.
Negative Factors
Extremely thin margins & weak free cash flow conversion
Very low net margins and poor free cash flow conversion reduce the company's ability to self-fund growth, pay sustained dividends or service higher leverage. Persistently weak cash conversion also raises sensitivity to working-capital swings and commodity price reversals, limiting durable financial resilience.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Integrated industrial + marketing model
Glencore's vertically integrated model — owning production while operating a global trading and logistics franchise — creates durable margin and volume optionality. Integration lets the company optimize routes, timing and product mix, smooth revenue variability and monetize by-products over cycles.
Read all positive factors
Glencore (GLEN) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£65.92B
Dividend Yield1.89%
Average Volume (3M)52.30M
Price to Earnings (P/E)176.1
Beta (1Y)1.43
Revenue Growth-1.06%
EPS Growth-285.88%
CountryUK
Employees84,146
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.11
Shares Outstanding11,735,355,000
10 Day Avg. Volume49,112,970
30 Day Avg. Volume52,303,286
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.42
Price to Book (P/B)1.68
Price to Sales (P/S)0.26
P/FCF Ratio165.16
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£555.45Price Target Upside-1.45% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)0.46
Revenue Forecast (FY)£257.02B
Glencore Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Glencore plc produces, refines, processes, stores, transports, and markets metals and minerals, and energy products in the Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa, and Oceania. It operates through two segments, Marketing Activities and Industrial Activitie...
How the Company Makes Money
Glencore primarily makes money through two interconnected activities: (1) Industrial production and sales, and (2) Marketing (commodities trading, logistics and supply).
1) Industrial production and sales (Mining/Energy)
- Revenue is generated by...
Glencore Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a materially positive tone driven by strong full-year adjusted EBITDA ($13.5bn), marked H2 momentum (50% half-on-half improvement), a robust metals trading and copper performance, successful operational delivery (guidance met for the second year), and a well-progressed copper growth pipeline (Quechua acquisition, MARA/Pachon permitting, Alumbrera restart). These positives were tempered by notable headwinds — early-year weakness in coal markets, constrained cobalt sales (DRC quota impacts), a significant copper volume shortfall at Collahuasi, working capital swings, a sizable UK tax payment recorded as receivable, two fatalities in 2025, and some impairments — but management presented clear remediation actions (cost program, portfolio optimization, monetizations) and maintained disciplined capital guidance and shareholder return focus. Overall, highlights outweigh the challenges, and management projects further upside in spot scenarios.Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA of $13.5 billion for FY2025, with the industrial segment contributing close to $10 billion and marketing delivering $2.9 billion adjusted EBIT (back in the middle of the new range).
Negative Updates
Coal Segment Weakness and Early-Year Headwinds
Energy and steelmaking coal trading and prices were weaker in the first half of the year, producing a negative year-on-year price variance (coal contributed a -$2.4 billion swing in the waterfall analysis); although markets strengthened in H2, the segment lagged metals overall.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Full-Year EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA of $13.5 billion for FY2025, with the industrial segment contributing close to $10 billion and marketing delivering $2.9 billion adjusted EBIT (back in the middle of the new range).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Glencore reiterated a constructive outlook: 2025 adjusted EBITDA was $13.5bn (industrial ~ $9.9–10bn; marketing EBIT $2.9bn) and management showed a spot-illustrative EBITDA run‑rate of ~ $18.1bn with spot free cash flow of ~ $7bn (metals rising from ~$7bn to ~$11bn; industrial to ~$14.6bn); copper unit cash cost is shown at ~$1.85 (2026) falling to ~$1.18–1.08 by 2028–29 as copper production scales toward ~1.0Mt in the near term, ~1.6Mt with further upside and potentially >2Mt by 2035 (including Collahuasi snap‑back and KCC expansion to ~300ktpa). CapEx guidance was unchanged at an average ~$6.5bn p.a. for 2026–28 (net CapEx 2025 $6.9bn; EVR averaging ~ $1.3bn p.a.), they declared a $2bn dividend, reiterated a long‑term net debt target of ~$10bn, noted RMI increases (copper avg price up ~44% from ~$8,600 to ~$12,400 in 2025), and emphasized they met production guidance across key commodities for a second consecutive year.Glencore Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 252.75B | 230.94B | 217.83B | 255.98B | 203.75B |
| Gross Profit | 5.49B | 6.28B | 10.78B | 27.26B | 12.38B |
| EBITDA | 10.52B | 9.85B | 15.32B | 32.23B | 16.03B |
| Net Income | 370.62M | -1.63B | 4.28B | 17.32B | 4.97B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 142.25B | 130.46B | 123.87B | 132.58B | 127.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.95B | 2.17B | 1.95B | 1.97B | 2.69B |
| Total Debt | 42.76B | 38.11B | 32.24B | 28.78B | 34.64B |
| Total Liabilities | 108.63B | 94.80B | 85.63B | 87.36B | 90.59B |
| Stockholders Equity | 38.87B | 40.67B | 43.58B | 49.41B | 39.93B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 395.12M | 4.44B | 6.55B | 9.48B | 5.24B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.45B | 10.05B | 11.04B | 13.66B | 8.86B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.95B | -11.72B | -3.56B | -1.72B | -541.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.00B | 2.14B | -7.49B | -13.20B | -6.52B |
Glencore Technical Analysis
Positive
563.60
Price Trends
516.55
Positive
457.76
Positive
386.37
Positive
Market Momentum
13.22
Negative
67.42
Neutral
86.08
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:GLEN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 563.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 530.41, above the 50-day MA of 516.55, and above the 200-day MA of 386.37, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 13.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.08 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:GLEN.
Glencore Risk Analysis
Glencore disclosed 11 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Glencore reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Glencore Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | £120.45B | 6.00 | 16.59% | 4.75% | -3.50% | -7.04% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
60 Neutral | £65.92B | 176.08 | 0.96% | 1.89% | -1.06% | -285.88% | |
48 Neutral | £35.70B | -11.13 | -20.10% | 0.80% | -27.65% | -160.77% | |
46 Neutral | £116.02M | -19.26 | -17.14% | ― | ― | 54.72% | |
45 Neutral | £99.92M | -1.04 | -12.80% | ― | ― | ― |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
GB:GLEN
Glencore
563.60
333.29
144.71%
GB:AAL
Anglo American
3,308.00
1,517.76
84.78%
GB:ALL
Atlantic Lithium
14.48
7.48
106.79%
GB:JLP
Jubilee Metals Group
3.10
0.17
5.80%
GB:RIO
Rio Tinto
7,102.00
3,071.91
76.22%
Glencore Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Glencore CEO Gary Nagle Receives Vesting of Long-Term Share Awards
Neutral
Mar 23, 2026
Glencore has disclosed that Chief Executive Officer Gary Nagle has received the vesting of previously granted share-based awards under the company’s Deferred Bonus Award and Restricted Share Plan. The vesting, which follows a three-year peri...
Executive/Board Changes
Glencore awards 1.5 million career share units to CEO Gary Nagle
Neutral
Mar 11, 2026
Glencore, the global diversified natural resources group based in Baar, Switzerland, is a leading producer and marketer of over 60 commodities and operates an integrated marketing and industrial platform across more than 30 countries. Its customer...
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Glencore Publishes 2025 Annual Report and Sets Date for 2026 AGM
Neutral
Mar 10, 2026
Glencore has published its 2025 Annual Report for the year ended 31 December 2025, making the document and other key components of its annual reporting suite available on its website and through the UK Financial Conduct Authority’s National ...
DividendsShareholder Meetings
Glencore Proposes US$0.17 Per Share 2025 Distribution in Two 2026 Tranches
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
Glencore has proposed a total shareholder distribution of US$0.17 per share for the 2025 financial year, to be paid in two equal tranches of US$0.085 during the first and second halves of 2026. The payout, drawn from capital contribution reserves,...
Business Operations and Strategy
Glencore Secures Key Land Deal to Extend Life of Kamoto Copper Mine
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
Glencore has finalised an agreement with Democratic Republic of Congo state miner Gécamines to secure long‑term land access for Kamoto Copper Company, its key copper operation in the country. The deal grants KCC expanded mining titles a...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Glencore Bets on Copper-Led Growth as 2025 Profit Rebounds
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
Glencore reported preliminary 2025 results showing revenue up 7% to $247.5 billion but Adjusted EBITDA down 6% to $13.5 billion, as weaker energy and steelmaking coal prices offset stronger metals pricing and a robust second half. Net income swung...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Glencore Rejects Undervalued Rio Tinto Approach, Backs Standalone Growth Strategy
Positive
Feb 5, 2026
Glencore has rejected the terms of a potential combination with Rio Tinto after Rio Tinto announced it does not intend to make an offer, leaving it bound by UK takeover rules that restrict a renewed approach. Glencore’s board said the propos...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Glencore in $9bn DRC Copper-Cobalt Stake Talks With US-Backed Orion Consortium
Positive
Feb 3, 2026
Glencore has signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with the US-backed Orion Critical Mineral Consortium for the potential sale of a 40% stake in its Mutanda Mining and Kamoto Copper Company assets in the Democratic Republic of Congo, va...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Glencore Confirms Total Voting Rights at 11.74 Billion Shares
Neutral
Feb 2, 2026
Glencore has disclosed that, as of the close of business on 30 January 2026, its issued share capital comprised 13,003,464,600 ordinary shares, of which 1,268,109,041 are held in treasury and do not carry voting rights. This leaves a total of 11,7...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Glencore Delivers 2025 Output Within Guidance as Copper Strategy and DRC Quotas Reshape Portfolio
Positive
Jan 29, 2026
Glencore reported that for 2025 it delivered production for its key commodities within guidance for a second consecutive year, underlining the benefits of its simplified operating structure, even as full-year own-sourced copper output fell 11% to ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Glencore Sets Dates for 2025 Production Update and Preliminary Results
Neutral
Jan 15, 2026
Glencore has scheduled the release of its 2025 Full Year Production Report for 29 January 2026, followed by its 2025 Preliminary Results on 18 February 2026, with both announcements to be published via the London Stock Exchange’s Regulatory ...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Glencore Confirms Early-Stage Merger Talks With Rio Tinto Under UK Takeover Rules
Neutral
Jan 9, 2026
Glencore has confirmed that it is in preliminary talks with mining rival Rio Tinto over a potential combination of some or all of their businesses, which could include an all-share merger structured as a court-sanctioned scheme of arrangement unde...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Glencore Cancels 8.4 Million Shares in Ongoing Buyback from UBS
Positive
Jan 9, 2026
Glencore plc has repurchased 8.4 million of its own ordinary shares off-market from UBS AG on 8 January 2026 as part of its ongoing share buyback programme that began in July 2025. The shares, bought in Swiss francs with Swiss withholding tax dedu...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.