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Rio Tinto (LSE:RIO) (GB:RIO)
:RIO

Rio Tinto (RIO) AI Stock Analysis

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GB

Rio Tinto

(LSE:RIO)

Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
4,996.00p
▲(20.75%Upside)
Rio Tinto exhibits a robust financial foundation and attractive valuation, bolstered by strategic corporate actions. However, technical indicators show bearish trends, and market challenges present risks. Continued focus on strategic growth and market adaptation will be key to future performance.
Positive Factors
Financial Valuation
Analyst's recommendation is to buy Rio Tinto shares as they trade on approximately 0.7x price to net present value, compared to the through-the-cycle large-cap miners trading on 0.6-1.1x price to net present value.
Leadership Stability
As an organization, Rio Tinto has a very deep 'bench', suggesting strong internal candidates for the CEO succession.
Strategic Growth
Jakob Stausholm has reset Rio Tinto’s strategy to align the group to the opportunities of the energy transition, shaping a pathway to a decade of profitable growth.
Negative Factors
Commodity Prices
Escalating trade tensions between the US and China, along with weaknesses in the Chinese property markets, are expected to negatively impact iron ore prices, which is a concern for Rio Tinto.
Leadership Uncertainty
The uncertainty around Rio Tinto's strategic direction due to the upcoming CEO succession creates a risk for the company.
Trade and Tariffs
Increased tariffs on US imports of aluminum from Canada are likely to negatively affect Rio Tinto, as the company is a major producer of aluminum in Canada.

Rio Tinto (RIO) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Rio Tinto Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRio Tinto Group engages in exploring, mining, and processing mineral resources worldwide. The company offers aluminum, copper, diamonds, gold, borates, titanium dioxide, salt, iron ore, and lithium. It also owns and operates open pit and underground mines, mills, refineries, smelters, power stations, and research and service facilities. Rio Tinto Group was founded in 1873 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyRio Tinto generates revenue primarily through the extraction and sale of minerals and metals. Its key revenue streams include the sale of iron ore, which is the largest contributor to its earnings, followed by aluminum and copper. The company operates in an oligopolistic market for several of its products, allowing it to maintain competitive pricing. Significant partnerships and joint ventures, such as those with the Chinese market for iron ore, also enhance its revenue potential. Additionally, Rio Tinto's investments in technology and sustainable mining practices contribute to operational efficiency and cost reduction, further bolstering profitability.

Rio Tinto Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: -15.56%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a balanced view of Rio Tinto's performance. While there were significant achievements in production growth, financial stability, and strategic diversification, these were offset by challenges such as adverse weather impacts, market weaknesses in China, and ongoing cost pressures in the iron ore segment. The potential impact of tariffs on Canadian exports also adds uncertainty.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Consistent Production Growth
Copper equivalent production increased by 1% in 2024, with expectations of a further 4% growth in 2025. This growth is driven by the ramp-up of Oyu Tolgoi and is part of a strategy for a decade of 3% compound annual production growth.
Strong Financial Performance
Despite an 11% lower iron ore price, underlying EBITDA was only down 2% to $23.3 billion. Operating cash flow rose by 3% with a 67% EBITDA cash conversion rate, up from 63% in 2023.
Dividend Stability
The company maintained a 60% payout for the ordinary dividend for the ninth consecutive year, equating to $6.5 billion.
Resilient Cash Flow
Net operating cash flow increased by 3%, supported by stronger performances from the copper and aluminum segments.
Decarbonization Progress
Emissions were reduced by 14% between 2018 and 2024, with significant progress toward the 2030 target to cut emissions by 50%.
Successful Lithium Diversification
The acquisition of Arcadium and the ramp-up at Rincon showcase progress in building a world-class lithium business.
Negative Updates
Impact of Weather on Iron Ore Production
Severe weather conditions, including cyclones, significantly impacted first-quarter production in the Pilbara region, causing a loss of 13 million tonnes of production.
Challenges in Chinese Market
The property sector in China has been weak, with steel demand down by as much as 30% from its peak in 2020, impacting demand for iron ore.
Cost Challenges in Iron Ore
Iron ore unit costs are expected to rise by around 3% in 2025, partly due to lower production volumes and ongoing inflationary pressures.
TiO2 Market Weakness
TiO2 volumes were affected by weak Western market conditions for pigment, and operational stability at IOC has not been achieved.
Potential Tariff Impacts
Uncertainty around potential tariffs on Canadian aluminum exports to the U.S. could affect the economics of Rio Tinto's aluminum business.
Company Guidance
In the call, Rio Tinto outlined its financial and operational performance for 2024, detailing several key metrics and strategic objectives. The company reported a slight 2% decline in underlying EBITDA to $23.3 billion, despite an 11% drop in iron ore prices, with resilience supported by a 3% increase in operating cash flow. Copper equivalent production saw a 1% increase, with expectations for a 4% increase in 2025, excluding the Arcadium Lithium acquisition. The company maintained a 60% dividend payout, distributing $6.5 billion, marking the ninth consecutive year at this level. Capital investment rose to $9.5 billion, ending the year with net debt of $5.5 billion. Rio Tinto also highlighted progress in its decarbonization strategy, achieving a 14% emissions reduction from 2018 to 2024, and affirmed its commitment to a 50% reduction by 2030. The guidance emphasized ongoing investments in projects like Oyu Tolgoi and Simandou, projecting a decade-long 3% compound annual growth in production.

Rio Tinto Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Rio Tinto's financial performance is strong, with excellent profitability and cash flow generation, supported by a stable balance sheet. However, challenges such as revenue contraction and fluctuating return on equity need to be addressed to maintain financial robustness.
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Rio Tinto's income statement reveals strong profitability with a consistent gross profit margin, though slightly decreasing revenue over recent years. Despite recent revenue contraction, net profit margins remain robust. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, indicating efficient operations. However, the declining revenue trend is a concern that could impact future profitability if not addressed.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet of Rio Tinto showcases a solid equity base with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio, indicating prudent financial management. The equity ratio suggests a balanced asset structure. However, the company's return on equity has shown some fluctuations, which could affect investor confidence. Overall, the balance sheet reflects stability but highlights the need to maintain strong equity performance.
Cash Flow
85
Very Positive
Rio Tinto's cash flow analysis is impressive, with consistent operating cash flow and a strong free cash flow to net income ratio. The company demonstrates effective cash management despite fluctuations in free cash flow growth. The operating cash flow to net income ratio illustrates robust cash generation capabilities, supporting financial flexibility and shareholder returns.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
53.66B54.04B55.55B63.49B44.61B
Gross Profit
30.28B32.40B34.27B44.93B29.13B
EBIT
15.65B14.82B19.93B29.82B16.83B
EBITDA
23.16B21.08B25.54B36.13B21.68B
Net Income Common Stockholders
11.55B10.06B12.39B21.11B9.77B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
7.20B9.78B8.94B15.35B13.23B
Total Assets
102.79B103.55B96.74B102.90B97.39B
Total Debt
13.86B14.35B12.27B13.53B14.02B
Net Debt
7.03B5.65B5.50B724.00M3.63B
Total Liabilities
44.82B47.21B44.47B46.31B45.49B
Stockholders Equity
55.25B54.59B50.17B51.43B47.05B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
5.98B8.07B9.38B17.96B9.69B
Operating Cash Flow
15.60B15.16B16.13B25.34B15.88B
Investing Cash Flow
-9.59B-6.96B-6.71B-7.16B-6.56B
Financing Cash Flow
-7.09B-5.28B-15.47B-15.86B-7.13B

Rio Tinto Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price4137.50
Price Trends
50DMA
4436.57
Negative
100DMA
4591.52
Negative
200DMA
4672.76
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-87.48
Positive
RSI
26.98
Positive
STOCH
3.44
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:RIO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4137.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4347.05, below the 50-day MA of 4436.57, and below the 200-day MA of 4672.76, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -87.48 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 26.98 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 3.44 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:RIO.

Rio Tinto Risk Analysis

Rio Tinto disclosed 5 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Rio Tinto reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Rio Tinto Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
GBRIO
74
Outperform
£72.19B7.6120.80%8.51%-3.39%11.60%
51
Neutral
$1.99B-1.26-21.11%5.30%2.92%-30.46%
$30.10B-13.39%1.48%
68
Neutral
£34.07B-3.81%1.96%3.11%-137.83%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:RIO
Rio Tinto
4,148.50
-759.59
-15.48%
AAUKD
Anglo American
29.00
-0.48
-1.63%
GB:GLEN
Glencore
286.35
-155.89
-35.25%

Rio Tinto Corporate Events

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Updates on Voting Rights and Issued Capital
Neutral
Jun 2, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced an update on its total voting rights and issued capital, stating that as of May 30, 2025, the company has 1,254,029,235 total voting rights. This update is in accordance with the Financial Conduct Authority’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules, which stakeholders can use to determine their notification obligations. The announcement also highlights the company’s dual listed companies (DLC) merger with Rio Tinto Limited, which includes a Special Voting Share to facilitate joint voting by shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:RIO) stock is a Buy with a £60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto stock, see the GB:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Discloses $8.4 Billion in Government Payments for 2024
Positive
May 29, 2025

Rio Tinto has published its report on payments to governments for the year ending December 31, 2024, in compliance with UK regulations. The report reveals that the company paid $8.4 billion in taxes and royalties and an additional $1.8 billion on behalf of its employees. This disclosure underscores Rio Tinto’s commitment to transparency and responsible tax practices, which could enhance its reputation and stakeholder trust in the extractive industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:RIO) stock is a Buy with a £60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto stock, see the GB:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Announces Key Management Transaction in ADRs
Neutral
May 28, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced a transaction involving the acquisition of 3,000 American Depository Receipts (ADRs) by Joc O’Rourke, a Non-Executive Director, at a price of $60.73 per ADR. This transaction, disclosed under the Market Abuse Regulation, highlights the company’s ongoing commitment to transparency and regulatory compliance, potentially impacting investor confidence and market perception.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:RIO) stock is a Buy with a £60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto stock, see the GB:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Announces Key Management Share Acquisition
Neutral
May 28, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced the acquisition of American Depository Receipts (ADR) relating to its ordinary shares by Joc O’Rourke, a key management personnel, through the New York Stock Exchange. This transaction, reported in compliance with the EU Market Abuse Regulation, underscores Rio Tinto’s commitment to transparency in its securities dealings, potentially impacting investor confidence and market perception.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:RIO) stock is a Buy with a £60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto stock, see the GB:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rio Tinto Announces CEO Succession Plan Amid Strategic Growth
Positive
May 22, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced a succession plan for its Chief Executive, Jakob Stausholm, who will step down later this year. Stausholm, who joined the company in 2018 and became CEO in 2021, has been instrumental in resetting the company’s strategy to focus on the energy transition and profitable growth. Under his leadership, Rio Tinto has restored stakeholder trust, aligned its portfolio with high-demand commodities, and set a growth trajectory. The company is now seeking a successor to continue this strategic direction and enhance operational performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:RIO) stock is a Buy with a £60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto stock, see the GB:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Rio Tinto and Codelco Partner on Chilean Lithium Project
Positive
May 19, 2025

Rio Tinto has entered into a joint venture with Codelco to develop a high-grade lithium project in Chile’s Salar de Maricunga. This strategic partnership aims to enhance both companies’ positions as key suppliers in the global energy transition. The project, which involves significant investment from Rio Tinto, will focus on sustainable development and community engagement, with the first lithium production targeted by 2030. This initiative is expected to bolster Rio Tinto’s portfolio in critical minerals and bring long-term benefits to the Atacama region.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:RIO) stock is a Buy with a £60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto stock, see the GB:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Rio Tinto CEO Presents at Global Metals Conference
Neutral
May 13, 2025

Rio Tinto’s Chief Executive Jakob Stausholm is presenting at the Bank of America Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference in Barcelona, highlighting the company’s strategic initiatives and industry positioning. This presentation underscores Rio Tinto’s commitment to maintaining its leadership in the global mining sector and may influence stakeholder perceptions and market dynamics.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:RIO) stock is a Buy with a £60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto stock, see the GB:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Rio Tinto Allocates Free Shares to Key Management Under UK Share Plan
Positive
May 2, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced the allocation of Free Shares to key management personnel under its UK Share Plan, which allows UK employees to purchase shares with matching shares provided by the company. This move reflects the company’s commitment to employee engagement and aligns management interests with shareholder value, potentially enhancing Rio Tinto’s operational performance and market positioning.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rio Tinto Awards Free Shares to Key Management
Neutral
May 2, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced the award of free shares to key management personnel under the UK Share Plan. This includes transactions involving Peter Cunningham, the Chief Financial Officer, Katie Jackson, the Chief Executive of Copper, and Jakob Stausholm, the Chief Executive. The transactions were conducted on April 30, 2025, at the London Stock Exchange, with each share priced at £45.465. This move is part of Rio Tinto’s strategy to align management interests with those of shareholders, potentially impacting the company’s governance and stakeholder relations.

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rio Tinto Executives Acquire Shares via Dividend Reinvestment Plan
Positive
May 1, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced that its key management personnel have acquired shares in the company through its Dividend Reinvestment Plan. This move, disclosed to both the Australian Securities Exchange and the London Stock Exchange, reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to shareholder value and may influence its market positioning by demonstrating confidence in its financial health.

Dividends
Rio Tinto Director Acquires ADRs in Dividend Reinvestment
Neutral
May 1, 2025

Rio Tinto announced that Jennifer Nason, a Non-Executive Director, has acquired American Depository Receipts (ADRs) under a dividend reinvestment plan. This transaction, conducted on April 17, 2025, at the NYSE, involved 72 ADRs at a price of $58.099722 each. The acquisition reflects ongoing engagement by key management personnel in the company’s financial instruments, potentially signaling confidence in the company’s market performance.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Discloses Updated Voting Rights and Issued Capital
Neutral
May 1, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced the total voting rights and issued capital as of April 30, 2025, in compliance with the Financial Conduct Authority’s regulations. The company reports an issued share capital of 1,255,976,743 ordinary shares, with 1,947,902 held in treasury, resulting in 1,254,028,841 voting rights. This information is crucial for shareholders and stakeholders to determine their notification obligations under the FCA’s rules, impacting the company’s transparency and governance practices.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rio Tinto Shareholders Reject Unification Proposal
Neutral
May 1, 2025

Rio Tinto held its annual general meetings in London and Perth, where shareholders voted on several resolutions. A significant focus was the Requisitioned Resolution, which proposed an independent review to unify the dual-listed company (DLC) structure. The Board recommended against this unification due to potential tax costs and inefficiencies, and shareholders largely agreed, with 80.65% voting against the resolution. The Board emphasized the benefits of the current DLC structure and the importance of focusing on long-term value creation. Despite some shareholder support for the resolution, Rio Tinto will continue engaging with shareholders to address their concerns.

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rio Tinto Management Increases Shareholdings Through Dividend Reinvestment
Positive
Apr 28, 2025

Rio Tinto announced the acquisition of shares by key management personnel through dividend reinvestment plans as part of its dual listed company structure. This move highlights the company’s commitment to aligning management interests with shareholder value, potentially reinforcing investor confidence and stability in its stock performance.

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rio Tinto Executives Acquire Shares Under Dividend Reinvestment Plan
Positive
Apr 28, 2025

Rio Tinto announced the acquisition of shares by key management personnel under a dividend reinvestment plan. This move involves several top executives, including the Chief Executive and Chief Financial Officers of various divisions, acquiring ordinary shares, which reflects confidence in the company’s future performance and aligns management interests with shareholders.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rio Tinto Executives Engage in Share Transactions
Neutral
Apr 24, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced share transactions involving its top executives under the Global Employee Share Plan and the UK Share Plan. The transactions, which include the vesting and acquisition of shares, reflect the company’s ongoing commitment to aligning employee incentives with shareholder interests, potentially impacting executive compensation and shareholder value.

Business Operations and Strategy
Rio Tinto Enhances Employee Engagement with Share Plans
Positive
Apr 24, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced updates regarding its Global Employee Share Plan (myShare) and UK Share Plan (UKSP), which allow employees to purchase company shares with matching shares awarded. On April 22, 2025, key management personnel received vested matching shares under myShare, with some sold to cover taxes. Additionally, on April 17, 2025, shares were acquired by PDMRs/KMPs under both myShare and UKSP, highlighting the company’s commitment to employee investment and engagement. This move is likely to enhance employee retention and align their interests with company performance, potentially impacting Rio Tinto’s operational and market positioning positively.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Rio Tinto Reports Strong Q1 2025 Amidst Weather Challenges
Positive
Apr 16, 2025

Rio Tinto reported strong operational improvements in the first quarter of 2025, with record production at the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine and bauxite operations. Despite challenges from extreme weather affecting Pilbara iron ore operations, the company is advancing its major growth projects, including the Western Range and Simandou iron ore projects, and has established a world-class lithium business following the Arcadium acquisition. The company maintains its production and cost guidance for 2025, with mitigation plans in place to address weather-related disruptions.

Dividends
Rio Tinto Announces 2024 Final Dividend Currency Exchange Rates
Neutral
Apr 8, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced the currency exchange rates for its 2024 final dividend, initially declared at 225.00 US cents per share. Shareholders who opted to receive their dividends in British pounds, Australian dollars, or New Zealand dollars will have their payments converted at the rates determined on April 8, 2025. This announcement ensures transparency in the dividend distribution process and reflects Rio Tinto’s commitment to its shareholders by providing clear financial information.

Other
Rio Tinto Executive Acquires Company Shares
Neutral
Apr 8, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced that Dean Dalla Valle, a person discharging managerial responsibility, has acquired 462 shares of Rio Tinto Limited at a price of AUD 108.00 per share. This transaction, part of the company’s dual-listed structure, was reported to both the Australian Securities Exchange and the London Stock Exchange, reflecting the company’s commitment to transparency in its operations.

Shareholder MeetingsStock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rio Tinto AGM Highlights Shareholder Dynamics and Strategic Decisions
Neutral
Apr 3, 2025

Rio Tinto plc held its annual general meeting on April 3, 2025, where several resolutions were voted on by shareholders. Notably, Resolution 22, which authorizes the purchase of Rio Tinto plc shares, passed with less than 80% approval, primarily due to opposition from Chinalco, a significant shareholder. This decision highlights Chinalco’s growing influence, as its stake now approaches the agreed threshold with the Australian Government. The results of other resolutions will be announced after the Rio Tinto Limited meeting in May.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rio Tinto Holds Annual General Meeting, Shares Strategic Insights
Neutral
Apr 3, 2025

Rio Tinto held its annual general meeting at The Queen Elizabeth II Centre in Westminster, where the Chair and Chief Executive addressed shareholders. The meeting’s proceedings, including strategic discussions and company updates, are accessible on the company’s website, indicating Rio Tinto’s commitment to transparency and stakeholder engagement.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Updates on Voting Rights and Issued Capital
Neutral
Apr 1, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced its total voting rights and issued capital as of March 31, 2025. The company’s issued share capital consists of 1,255,960,289 ordinary shares, with 1,987,902 held in treasury, resulting in 1,253,972,387 voting rights. This update is significant for shareholders and stakeholders as it affects the calculation of their interests under the FCA’s rules, highlighting the company’s transparency and compliance with regulatory requirements.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.