Rio Tinto (GB:RIO)
LSE:RIO
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Rio Tinto
(LSE:RIO)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
8,791.00 p
â–²(18.03% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:02/20/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance despite mid-cycle pressures (margin compression, higher debt, and weaker FCF conversion). Technicals add support via a clear uptrend and healthy momentum. Valuation is fair with an attractive dividend, while earnings-call positives (productivity and copper growth) are tempered by safety, debt, iron ore weakness, and near-term volume headwinds.
Positive Factors
Copper growth and project pipeline
Rio Tinto's materially stronger copper performance and completed Oyu Tolgoi underground set a multi-year growth base. Higher copper volumes and targeted 500k tpa output provide durable, higher-margin cash generation that diversifies earnings away from iron‑ore cyclicality.
Negative Factors
Sharp debt increase after 2025 acquisition
The large step‑up in debt materially reduces headroom and raises sensitivity to commodity earnings volatility. Higher leverage constrains strategic optionality, increases interest and refinancing risk, and may limit the pace of further organic or inorganic investment.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Copper growth and project pipeline
Rio Tinto's materially stronger copper performance and completed Oyu Tolgoi underground set a multi-year growth base. Higher copper volumes and targeted 500k tpa output provide durable, higher-margin cash generation that diversifies earnings away from iron‑ore cyclicality.
Read all positive factors
Rio Tinto (RIO) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£136.21B
Dividend Yield4.75%
Average Volume (3M)2.97M
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.0
Beta (1Y)1.24
Revenue Growth4.05%
EPS Growth-16.51%
CountryUK
Employees60,000
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.15
Shares Outstanding1,255,045,700
10 Day Avg. Volume2,191,880
30 Day Avg. Volume2,969,863
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.08
Price to Book (P/B)2.10
Price to Sales (P/S)2.23
P/FCF Ratio26.67
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£6,522.77Price Target Upside-12.42% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)8.16
Revenue Forecast (FY)£62.48B
Rio Tinto Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Rio Tinto Group engages in exploring, mining, and processing mineral resources worldwide. The company offers aluminum, copper, diamonds, gold, borates, titanium dioxide, salt, iron ore, and lithium. It also owns and operates open pit and undergrou...
How the Company Makes Money
Rio Tinto primarily makes money by producing and selling mined commodities and processed metals, with revenue largely tied to shipment volumes and prevailing global commodity prices. Its largest earnings driver is typically iron ore, where it mine...
Rio Tinto Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive operational and financial picture: record and growing copper and bauxite production, rising EBITDA (driven by copper and aluminum), completed major project milestones (OT underground, first Simandou shipment), and clear productivity initiatives unlocking a $650m run rate with expectations for materially higher cash benefits in 2026. Offsetting factors include a fatal safety incident at Simandou with immediate operational impacts, a rise in net debt (post‑acquisition), weaker iron ore earnings, cyclone-related costs, and near-term volume headwinds from scheduled closures and grade decline. Management emphasized capital discipline, project execution, and a pipeline of growth options while retaining a strong dividend policy.Positive Updates
Production Growth — Copper Equivalent
Copper equivalent production increased 8% year-on-year, with annual production records set for both copper and bauxite; management reiterated ambition of ~3% CAGR in copper equivalent production through the end of the decade.
Negative Updates
Fatal Safety Incident at Simandou
A fatality occurred at the Simandou mine site during construction; immediate actions include stopping site works, launching independent internal and external investigations, and appointing an independent safety advisory panel — a material operational and reputational concern.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Production Growth — Copper Equivalent
Copper equivalent production increased 8% year-on-year, with annual production records set for both copper and bauxite; management reiterated ambition of ~3% CAGR in copper equivalent production through the end of the decade.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The management guidance emphasized disciplined growth and cost improvement, including a 3% CAGR target for copper‑equivalent production to the end of the decade after an 8% copper‑equivalent increase in 2025, delivery of a $650m annualized productivity run‑rate by end‑Q1 (with 2026 cash improvements materially above the Q1 run‑rate), and nearly $3bn of volume improvement year‑on‑year contributing to a $2.9bn sales uplift and an $800m unit‑cost benefit; key project and capacity targets include ~500,000 tpa copper from Oyu Tolgoi (2028–2036), 60 Mtpa iron ore from Simandou at full ramp, and ~200,000 tpa lithium capacity by 2028; financial metrics/guidance comprised underlying EBITDA $25.4bn (up 9%), underlying earnings $10.9bn with a 60% payout ($6.5bn dividend), net debt $14.4bn (gearing ~18%), iron ore unit cost guidance $23.50–$25/t (2026), group CapEx ~up to $11bn for the next two years then stepping to $10bn, a $5–10bn capital‑release target (testing RTIT and Borates), and an exploration tilt of 85% of budget to copper.Rio Tinto Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 58.85B | 53.66B | 54.04B | 55.55B | 63.49B |
| Gross Profit | 15.60B | 30.28B | 32.40B | 34.27B | 44.93B |
| EBITDA | 22.31B | 23.16B | 21.08B | 25.54B | 36.13B |
| Net Income | 10.18B | 11.55B | 10.06B | 12.39B | 21.11B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 128.15B | 102.79B | 103.55B | 96.74B | 102.90B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.45B | 7.20B | 9.78B | 8.94B | 15.35B |
| Total Debt | 24.59B | 13.86B | 14.35B | 12.27B | 13.53B |
| Total Liabilities | 61.10B | 44.82B | 47.21B | 44.47B | 46.31B |
| Stockholders Equity | 62.23B | 55.25B | 54.59B | 50.17B | 51.43B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.91B | 5.98B | 8.07B | 9.38B | 17.96B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 17.51B | 15.60B | 15.16B | 16.13B | 25.34B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -18.08B | -9.59B | -6.96B | -6.71B | -7.16B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 864.77M | -7.09B | -5.28B | -15.47B | -15.86B |
Rio Tinto Technical Analysis
Positive
7448.00
Price Trends
6914.67
Positive
6398.25
Positive
5531.21
Positive
Market Momentum
178.49
Negative
66.37
Neutral
63.71
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:RIO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7448 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6932.20, above the 50-day MA of 6914.67, and above the 200-day MA of 5531.21, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 178.49 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:RIO.
Rio Tinto Risk Analysis
Rio Tinto disclosed 14 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Rio Tinto reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
Being responsible operators throughout the entire life ofour assets – from discovery to closure Q4, 2024
2.
Preventing loss of operational control that may lead to potential fatalities, permanent disablements, or material production disruption Q4, 2024
3.
Remaining competitive through economic cycles or shocks by maintaining strong financial and operating performance, underpinned by a healthy inventory of high-quality reserves Q4, 2024
Rio Tinto Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | £136.21B | 6.00 | 16.59% | 4.75% | 4.05% | -16.51% | |
65 Neutral | £561.56M | 11.82 | 4.19% | ― | -1.71% | 94.27% | |
63 Neutral | £42.07B | -6.53 | -20.10% | 0.80% | -34.37% | -23.82% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
60 Neutral | £67.07B | 16.06 | 0.96% | 1.89% | 3.75% | ― | |
52 Neutral | £205.17M | -0.32 | -34.92% | 7.30% | -22.99% | -583.84% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
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Rio Tinto Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
Rio Tinto CEO to Address Bank of America Metals and Mining Conference
Neutral
May 12, 2026
Rio Tinto announced that chief executive Simon Trott is presenting at the Bank of America Global Metals, Mining Steel Conference 2026 in Miami, highlighting the company’s engagement with investors and industry stakeholders. The group has ma...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Discloses Director ADR Purchase Under Dividend Reinvestment Plan
Positive
May 12, 2026
Rio Tinto disclosed that non-executive director Jennifer Nason acquired 53 American Depositary Receipts relating to ordinary shares under a dividend reinvestment plan on April 16, 2026, at a price of $99.7850 per ADR on the New York Stock Exchange...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Discloses PDMR Share Acquisition Under Dividend Reinvestment Plan
Neutral
May 12, 2026
Rio Tinto has disclosed a routine share transaction involving a person discharging managerial responsibility under its dividend reinvestment plan. On 16 April 2026, board member Jennifer Nason acquired 53 Rio Tinto plc American Depositary Receipts...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackShareholder Meetings
Rio Tinto shareholders back all AGM resolutions, renew capital powers
Positive
May 6, 2026
Rio Tinto reported that all resolutions put to shareholders at its dual-listed annual general meetings in London and Perth were passed, including approval of the 2025 annual report, directors’ remuneration reports, auditor reappointment and ...
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
Rio Tinto Publishes AGM Speeches for Dual-Listed Group
Neutral
May 6, 2026
Rio Tinto has notified investors that the speeches from the chair and chief executive at today’s annual general meetings of Rio Tinto plc in London and Rio Tinto Limited in Melbourne are now available on the company’s website. The disc...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Grants Free Shares to Senior Managers Under UK Employee Plan
Neutral
May 5, 2026
Rio Tinto has disclosed that several persons discharging managerial responsibility received awards of Free Shares under its HMRC-approved UK Share Plan on 30 April 2026. The plan, which allows qualifying UK employees to buy shares via salary deduc...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Rio Tinto Grants Routine Share Awards to Senior Executives
Neutral
May 5, 2026
Rio Tinto has disclosed routine share awards to senior executives under its UK Share Plan, granting 49 ordinary shares each to Chief Financial Officer Peter Cunningham and Copper Chief Executive Katie Jackson, and 17 shares to Chief Executive Simo...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Updates Market on Share Capital and Voting Rights After New Employee Share Issuance
Neutral
May 1, 2026
Rio Tinto plc has modestly increased its issued share capital on the London Stock Exchange, issuing 14,724 new ordinary shares between 12 March and 30 April 2026 to satisfy awards under its Global Employee Share Plan, with the new shares ranking p...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Reports Executive and Employee Share Acquisitions via Dividend Reinvestment
Neutral
Apr 23, 2026
Rio Tinto has disclosed routine share dealings by persons discharging managerial responsibility under its dual-listed structure, reporting acquisitions of Rio Tinto Limited shares funded through dividend reinvestment. The transactions, involving M...
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing Changes
Rio Tinto Seeks LSE Admission for New Shares to Fund Employee Plan
Positive
Apr 22, 2026
Rio Tinto has applied for the admission of 26,000 new ordinary shares of 10 pence each to trading on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. The shares, expected to be admitted on 27 April 2026, will be issued to satisfy awards under the com...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Discloses Executive Share Acquisitions Through Dividend Reinvestment Plans
Neutral
Apr 21, 2026
Rio Tinto has reported share dealings by persons discharging managerial responsibilities and key management personnel under its various employee share plans, in line with disclosure obligations in London and Australia. The company operates share p...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto reports executive share awards under global employee plans
Neutral
Apr 21, 2026
Rio Tinto has disclosed a series of share transactions by senior executives under its Global Employee Share Plan and UK Share Plan, in line with U.K. market transparency rules. Chief Financial Officer Peter Cunningham, Copper chief executive Katie...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto discloses executive share awards and purchases under employee plans
Neutral
Apr 21, 2026
Rio Tinto has disclosed recent dealings in its securities by persons discharging managerial responsibility under its Global Employee Share Plan, known as myShare, and its UK Share Plan. On 17 April 2026, Chief Financial Officer Peter Cunningham re...
Dividends
Rio Tinto executives boost holdings via dividend reinvestment plans
Positive
Apr 21, 2026
Rio Tinto has disclosed that several senior executives, including Chief Financial Officer Peter Cunningham and the chiefs of its Copper, Aluminium Lithium, Iron Ore and other businesses, have acquired additional Rio Tinto plc ordinary shares thro...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Rio Tinto lifts Q1 output, holds 2026 guidance amid geopolitical uncertainty
Positive
Apr 21, 2026
Rio Tinto reported a 9% year-on-year increase in copper-equivalent output for the first quarter of 2026, driven by the ramp-up of the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine, strong performance from its integrated aluminium business and higher Pilbara iron ore pro...
Dividends
Rio Tinto sets FX rates for 2025 final dividend payout
Neutral
Apr 7, 2026
Rio Tinto has confirmed the currency conversion rates for its previously declared 2025 final dividend of 254.00 US cents per share, payable to shareholders of Rio Tinto plc, Rio Tinto Limited and ADR holders. Investors who elected to receive the p...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto updates market on share capital and total voting rights
Neutral
Apr 1, 2026
Rio Tinto has confirmed that, as of 31 March 2026, its issued share capital consists of 1,256,023,963 ordinary shares, of which 1,067,389 are held in treasury and carry no dividend or voting rights, leaving 1,254,956,574 voting rights in the compa...
Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Updates Documentation for US$10 Billion Euro Medium Term Note Programme
Positive
Mar 31, 2026
Rio Tinto has published a supplementary prospectus for its U.S.$10 billion Euro Medium Term Note programme, which has been approved by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. The document, relating to notes issued by Rio Tinto Finance (USA) entities a...
Business Operations and Strategy
Rio Tinto Strikes A$2bn Clean-Energy Deal to Secure Future of Boyne Aluminium Smelter
Positive
Mar 25, 2026
Rio Tinto, a major player in the global mining and metals industry, operates a fully integrated aluminium value chain in Queensland from bauxite mining to alumina refining and aluminium smelting, anchored by Boyne Smelters Limited near Gladstone. ...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Grants Deferred Bonus and Performance Share Awards to Executives
Neutral
Mar 20, 2026
Rio Tinto has granted 2025 bonus deferral awards and 2026 performance share awards to members of its Executive Committee under its 2018 Equity Incentive Plan. The awards, made in Rio Tinto plc and Rio Tinto Limited shares, align executive pay with...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Grants Equity Incentive Share Awards to Senior Executives
Neutral
Mar 20, 2026
Rio Tinto has disclosed a series of share awards to senior executives under its Equity Incentive Plan 2018, granting bonus deferral and performance share awards in ordinary 10p shares to several top managers. Chief financial officer Peter Cunningh...
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
Rio Tinto Sets Parallel 2026 AGMs and Alternating Board Attendance Between London and Australia
Neutral
Mar 20, 2026
Rio Tinto has issued the notices for its 2026 annual general meetings for both Rio Tinto plc and Rio Tinto Limited, with documents available on its website and lodged with relevant market authorities. The AGMs will be held in parallel on 6 May 202...
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing Changes
Rio Tinto Admits Additional Shares to LSE for Employee Plan
Neutral
Mar 11, 2026
Rio Tinto has admitted 54,705 new ordinary shares of 10p each to trading on the London Stock Exchange’s Main Market to satisfy awards under its Global Employee Share Plan. The additional stock, which is fully fungible with existing ordinary ...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Discloses Vested Share Award for Iron Ore Chief
Neutral
Mar 4, 2026
Rio Tinto has disclosed a management share award transaction involving Matthew Holcz, who recently became Chief Executive of the Iron Ore division. Under the company’s 2018 Equity Incentive Plan, Holcz received 2,159 Rio Tinto Limited shares...
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing Changes
Rio Tinto Seeks LSE Admission for New Shares Issued Under Employee Plan
Positive
Mar 4, 2026
Rio Tinto has applied to the London Stock Exchange for the admission of 54,705 new ordinary shares to trading on its Main Market. The shares, each with a nominal value of 10 pence, have been issued to satisfy awards granted under the company’...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Updates Market on Voting Rights and Dual-Listed Capital Structure
Neutral
Mar 2, 2026
Rio Tinto has updated the market on its capital structure, reporting that as of 27 February 2026 it had issued 1,256,023,286 ordinary shares, of which 1,067,389 are held in treasury and therefore excluded from voting and dividend entitlements. Thi...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Discloses Vested Share Awards for Iron Ore Chief Under 2018 Incentive Plan
Neutral
Feb 24, 2026
Rio Tinto has disclosed dealings in its securities by key management personnel under its dual-listed structure, in line with market abuse and disclosure regulations in the U.K. and Australia. The company reported that Management Share Awards grant...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto discloses share vesting and sale by Iron Ore chief
Neutral
Feb 24, 2026
Rio Tinto has disclosed a change in the shareholding of Matthew Holcz, Chief Executive, Iron Ore, following the vesting of ordinary shares under a Management Share Award. The transaction reflects routine executive compensation practices and aligns...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto discloses PDMR share purchase by Ben Wyatt
Neutral
Feb 24, 2026
Rio Tinto has disclosed a small on-market share purchase by Ben Wyatt, classified as a person discharging managerial responsibility and key management personnel. Wyatt acquired 100 Rio Tinto Limited shares on 23 February 2026 at a price of A$160.6...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Rio Tinto lifts earnings quality with higher output, cost cuts and new growth projects
Positive
Feb 19, 2026
Rio Tinto reported an 8% increase in copper-equivalent production in 2025, driven by the ramp-up of the Oyu Tolgoi underground copper mine and strong Pilbara iron ore output, which helped lift underlying EBITDA 9% to $25.4 billion and operating ca...
Business Operations and Strategy
Rio Tinto reshapes resource base with major reserve and classification updates
Neutral
Feb 19, 2026
Rio Tinto has updated its Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves ahead of its 2025 annual reporting, announcing a series of reclassifications and volume changes across key copper, aluminium and borates assets. The adjustments reflect new drilling data...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Rio Tinto sets date for 2025 full-year results webcast
Neutral
Feb 19, 2026
Rio Tinto has scheduled its 2025 full-year results presentation for 19 February 2026, to be delivered by Chief Executive Simon Trott and Chief Financial Officer Peter Cunningham via a live webcast. The company has made the accompanying presentatio...
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
Rio Tinto Sets Key Dates for 2026 Annual General Meetings
Neutral
Feb 19, 2026
Rio Tinto has set the timetable for its 2026 annual general meetings, outlining governance milestones for shareholders and potential board candidates. Nominations for director positions not put forward by the board must be received by 2 March 2026...
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Publishes 2025 Annual and Sustainability Reports
Neutral
Feb 19, 2026
Rio Tinto has released its 2025 Annual Report, making it available via the Australian Securities Exchange, the company’s website and the UK National Storage Mechanism, with hard copies provided to shareholders on request. The group also plan...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.