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Rio Tinto (GB:RIO)
LSE:RIO
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Rio Tinto (RIO) AI Stock Analysis

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GB:RIO

Rio Tinto

(LSE:RIO)

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Outperform 82 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:82Outperform
Price Target:
6,366.00p
▲(16.25% Upside)
Rio Tinto's strong financial performance and strategic corporate events are the most significant factors driving its stock score. The company's solid balance sheet and effective cash management provide a stable foundation, while recent strategic initiatives enhance growth prospects. Technical indicators support a positive outlook, though caution is advised as RSI approaches overbought levels. The valuation remains attractive, offering a good balance of growth and income potential.
Positive Factors
Production Growth
The increase in production across key minerals like bauxite, alumina, and copper indicates strong operational performance and potential revenue growth, reinforcing Rio Tinto's market position.
Strategic Investments
The investment in the West Angelas Sustaining Project reflects Rio Tinto's commitment to maintaining and expanding its iron ore production capabilities, ensuring long-term supply stability and market competitiveness.
Operational Efficiency
Improved operational efficiency and record production levels demonstrate Rio Tinto's ability to optimize its existing assets, which supports sustained profitability and shareholder value.
Negative Factors
Revenue Contraction
The recent revenue contraction poses a risk to future profitability if not addressed, potentially impacting Rio Tinto's ability to maintain its market position and financial health.
Fluctuating Return on Equity
Fluctuations in return on equity may signal underlying operational challenges, affecting investor confidence and potentially hindering Rio Tinto's ability to attract and retain investment.
Declining Revenue Trend
A declining revenue trend could undermine future growth prospects and profitability, necessitating strategic adjustments to reverse the trend and sustain long-term financial performance.

Rio Tinto (RIO) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Rio Tinto Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRio Tinto Group engages in exploring, mining, and processing mineral resources worldwide. The company offers aluminum, copper, diamonds, gold, borates, titanium dioxide, salt, iron ore, and lithium. It also owns and operates open pit and underground mines, mills, refineries, smelters, power stations, and research and service facilities. Rio Tinto Group was founded in 1873 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyRio Tinto generates revenue primarily through the sale of its mined products across various sectors. Its key revenue streams include iron ore, which constitutes a substantial portion of its income, followed by aluminum, copper, and diamonds. The company benefits from long-term contracts and spot market sales, which allows it to capitalize on fluctuating commodity prices. Additionally, Rio Tinto has established significant partnerships and joint ventures with other mining companies and stakeholders, enhancing its market reach and operational capabilities. Factors contributing to its earnings include global demand for metals, particularly from the construction and automotive industries, as well as effective cost management and technological innovations that improve production efficiency.

Rio Tinto Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a balanced view of Rio Tinto's performance. While there were significant achievements in production growth, financial stability, and strategic diversification, these were offset by challenges such as adverse weather impacts, market weaknesses in China, and ongoing cost pressures in the iron ore segment. The potential impact of tariffs on Canadian exports also adds uncertainty.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Consistent Production Growth
Copper equivalent production increased by 1% in 2024, with expectations of a further 4% growth in 2025. This growth is driven by the ramp-up of Oyu Tolgoi and is part of a strategy for a decade of 3% compound annual production growth.
Strong Financial Performance
Despite an 11% lower iron ore price, underlying EBITDA was only down 2% to $23.3 billion. Operating cash flow rose by 3% with a 67% EBITDA cash conversion rate, up from 63% in 2023.
Dividend Stability
The company maintained a 60% payout for the ordinary dividend for the ninth consecutive year, equating to $6.5 billion.
Resilient Cash Flow
Net operating cash flow increased by 3%, supported by stronger performances from the copper and aluminum segments.
Decarbonization Progress
Emissions were reduced by 14% between 2018 and 2024, with significant progress toward the 2030 target to cut emissions by 50%.
Successful Lithium Diversification
The acquisition of Arcadium and the ramp-up at Rincon showcase progress in building a world-class lithium business.
Negative Updates
Impact of Weather on Iron Ore Production
Severe weather conditions, including cyclones, significantly impacted first-quarter production in the Pilbara region, causing a loss of 13 million tonnes of production.
Challenges in Chinese Market
The property sector in China has been weak, with steel demand down by as much as 30% from its peak in 2020, impacting demand for iron ore.
Cost Challenges in Iron Ore
Iron ore unit costs are expected to rise by around 3% in 2025, partly due to lower production volumes and ongoing inflationary pressures.
TiO2 Market Weakness
TiO2 volumes were affected by weak Western market conditions for pigment, and operational stability at IOC has not been achieved.
Potential Tariff Impacts
Uncertainty around potential tariffs on Canadian aluminum exports to the U.S. could affect the economics of Rio Tinto's aluminum business.
Company Guidance
In the call, Rio Tinto outlined its financial and operational performance for 2024, detailing several key metrics and strategic objectives. The company reported a slight 2% decline in underlying EBITDA to $23.3 billion, despite an 11% drop in iron ore prices, with resilience supported by a 3% increase in operating cash flow. Copper equivalent production saw a 1% increase, with expectations for a 4% increase in 2025, excluding the Arcadium Lithium acquisition. The company maintained a 60% dividend payout, distributing $6.5 billion, marking the ninth consecutive year at this level. Capital investment rose to $9.5 billion, ending the year with net debt of $5.5 billion. Rio Tinto also highlighted progress in its decarbonization strategy, achieving a 14% emissions reduction from 2018 to 2024, and affirmed its commitment to a 50% reduction by 2030. The guidance emphasized ongoing investments in projects like Oyu Tolgoi and Simandou, projecting a decade-long 3% compound annual growth in production.

Rio Tinto Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Rio Tinto presents a strong financial profile with robust profitability and cash flow generation. Despite revenue contraction and fluctuating return on equity, the company's stable balance sheet and effective cash flow management provide a solid foundation for future growth.
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Rio Tinto's income statement reveals strong profitability with a consistent gross profit margin, though slightly decreasing revenue over recent years. Despite recent revenue contraction, net profit margins remain robust. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, indicating efficient operations. However, the declining revenue trend is a concern that could impact future profitability if not addressed.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet of Rio Tinto showcases a solid equity base with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio, indicating prudent financial management. The equity ratio suggests a balanced asset structure. However, the company's return on equity has shown some fluctuations, which could affect investor confidence. Overall, the balance sheet reflects stability but highlights the need to maintain strong equity performance.
Cash Flow
85
Very Positive
Rio Tinto's cash flow analysis is impressive, with consistent operating cash flow and a strong free cash flow to net income ratio. The company demonstrates effective cash management despite fluctuations in free cash flow growth. The operating cash flow to net income ratio illustrates robust cash generation capabilities, supporting financial flexibility and shareholder returns.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue53.73B53.66B54.04B55.55B63.49B44.61B
Gross Profit29.00B30.28B32.40B34.27B44.93B29.13B
EBITDA22.31B23.16B21.08B25.54B36.13B20.32B
Net Income10.27B11.55B10.06B12.39B21.11B9.77B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets120.81B102.79B103.55B96.74B102.90B97.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments9.33B7.20B9.78B8.94B15.35B13.23B
Total Debt23.64B13.86B14.35B12.27B13.53B14.02B
Total Liabilities58.84B44.82B47.21B44.47B46.31B45.49B
Stockholders Equity58.20B55.25B54.59B50.17B51.43B47.05B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow5.13B5.98B8.07B9.38B17.96B9.69B
Operating Cash Flow15.47B15.60B15.16B16.13B25.34B15.88B
Investing Cash Flow-17.27B-9.59B-6.96B-6.71B-7.16B-6.56B
Financing Cash Flow1.53B-7.09B-5.28B-15.47B-15.86B-7.13B

Rio Tinto Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price5476.00
Price Trends
50DMA
5262.88
Positive
100DMA
4919.95
Positive
200DMA
4655.12
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
65.41
Negative
RSI
59.00
Neutral
STOCH
48.69
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:RIO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5476 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5401.30, above the 50-day MA of 5262.88, and above the 200-day MA of 4655.12, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 65.41 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:RIO.

Rio Tinto Risk Analysis

Rio Tinto disclosed 14 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Rio Tinto reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
Being responsible operators throughout the entire life ofour assets – from discovery to closure Q4, 2024
2.
Preventing loss of operational control that may lead to potential fatalities, permanent disablements, or material production disruption Q4, 2024
3.
Remaining competitive through economic cycles or shocks by maintaining strong financial and operating performance, underpinned by a healthy inventory of high-quality reserves Q4, 2024

Rio Tinto Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
82
Outperform
£90.00B10.7818.43%5.20%-3.50%-7.04%
68
Neutral
£41.28B-26.72-5.26%1.97%-1.06%-285.88%
66
Neutral
$32.16B-9.21%0.82%-27.65%-160.77%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:RIO
Rio Tinto
5,476.00
661.76
13.75%
GB:AAL
Anglo American
2,930.00
466.49
18.94%
GB:GLEN
Glencore
378.90
-4.97
-1.29%

Rio Tinto Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Announces Share Acquisition by Key Management Personnel
Neutral
Dec 4, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced a notification to the London Stock Exchange regarding the acquisition of shares by Jennifer Nason, a person discharging managerial responsibility, as part of compliance with the EU Market Abuse Regulation. This acquisition reflects the company’s adherence to regulatory requirements and may indicate confidence in the company’s future performance, potentially impacting stakeholder perceptions and market positioning.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Announces ADR Acquisition by Non-Executive Director
Neutral
Dec 4, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced a transaction involving the acquisition of American Depository Receipts (ADR) by Jennifer Nason, a Non-Executive Director of the company. The transaction, which took place on November 28, 2025, involved the purchase of 107 ADRs at a price of $71.905 each on the New York Stock Exchange. This move is part of the company’s ongoing efforts to maintain transparency and compliance with market regulations, as disclosed under article 19 of the Market Abuse Regulation.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto CFO Engages in Share Transactions Under Equity Incentive Plan
Neutral
Dec 4, 2025

Rio Tinto announced a transaction involving its Chief Financial Officer, Peter Cunningham, who acquired shares from the 2022 Bonus Deferral Award under the 2018 Equity Incentive Plan. The transaction included the acquisition of shares in lieu of dividends and the sale of shares to cover tax withholding. This announcement is part of regulatory disclosures under the Market Abuse Regulation, reflecting the company’s compliance and transparency in managerial share dealings.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rio Tinto Announces Vesting of Bonus Deferral Awards for Key Management
Neutral
Dec 4, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced the vesting of Bonus Deferral Awards (BDA) for its key management personnel, as part of its 2018 Equity Incentive Plan. The awards, which constitute 50% of annual bonuses, are delivered in the form of deferred shares and vest three years after the performance year. This move is part of Rio Tinto’s strategy to align management interests with shareholder value, potentially impacting the company’s operational focus and stakeholder relations.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rio Tinto Reports Initial Lithium Resources and Reserves
Positive
Dec 4, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced the initial reporting of Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves for seven lithium assets acquired through the purchase of Arcadium Lithium. These assets include four lithium brine deposits in Argentina and three hard rock spodumene deposits in Canada and Australia. This announcement marks a significant step in Rio Tinto’s strategy to strengthen its position in the lithium market, which is increasingly important due to the growing demand for electric vehicles and renewable energy storage solutions. The detailed reporting of these resources underscores Rio Tinto’s commitment to expanding its lithium production capabilities, potentially impacting its market positioning and offering new opportunities for stakeholders.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Rio Tinto Unveils Strategic Plan for Enhanced Returns and Growth
Positive
Dec 4, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced a strategic plan to enhance its operational efficiency and financial performance, aiming to become the most valued metals and mining company. The strategy involves streamlining operations into three core businesses—Iron Ore, Copper, and Aluminium & Lithium—while focusing on operational excellence, project execution, and capital discipline. The company expects significant production growth and productivity benefits, alongside a strategic release of $5-10 billion from existing assets. This plan is expected to strengthen Rio Tinto’s balance sheet, improve shareholder returns, and support its decarbonization efforts, positioning the company for sustainable growth.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Updates on Voting Rights and Issued Capital
Neutral
Dec 1, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced its total voting rights and issued capital as of November 28, 2025, in compliance with the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rule. The company has 1,256,010,228 ordinary shares, with 1,717,902 held in treasury, resulting in 1,254,292,326 voting rights. This update is crucial for shareholders and stakeholders to determine their notification obligations under FCA rules, reflecting the company’s ongoing commitment to transparency and regulatory compliance.

Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Announces Share Acquisition by Non-Executive Director
Neutral
Dec 1, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced a transaction involving the acquisition of ordinary shares by Ngaire Woods, a Non-Executive Director, as part of a market purchase. This move reflects internal managerial activities and is disclosed under the Market Abuse Regulation, indicating transparency and adherence to regulatory requirements.

Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Announces Key Management Share Acquisition
Neutral
Dec 1, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced the acquisition of shares by Ngaire Woods, a person discharging managerial responsibility, as part of its compliance with the EU Market Abuse Regulation. This transaction, reported to both the Australian Securities Exchange and the London Stock Exchange, underscores the company’s commitment to transparency and regulatory compliance, which is crucial for maintaining investor confidence and market integrity.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Updates on Voting Rights and Issued Capital
Neutral
Nov 3, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced its total voting rights and issued capital as of October 31, 2025, in compliance with the Financial Conduct Authority’s rules. The company’s issued share capital includes over 1.25 billion ordinary shares, with a small portion held in treasury, affecting voting rights and dividend payments. This announcement is crucial for shareholders and stakeholders to understand their voting power and obligations under the FCA’s rules.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rio Tinto Launches $10 Billion Euro Medium Term Note Programme
Positive
Oct 31, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced the approval and publication of a Base Prospectus for its $10 billion Euro Medium Term Note Programme by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. This development is significant as it provides the company with a flexible financing option to support its operations and strategic initiatives, potentially impacting its market positioning and offering opportunities for investors.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rio Tinto Announces Strategic Board Restructuring
Neutral
Oct 24, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced several changes to its Board of Directors, marking the end of a transitional phase where the Board size peaked at 14 members. Key changes include the stepping down of Simon Henry and Martina Merz, with Sharon Thorne succeeding Henry as Chair of the Audit & Risk Committee, and Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz joining the Sustainability Committee. These changes aim to streamline the Board and enhance its focus on sustainability and innovation, potentially impacting the company’s governance and strategic direction.

Business Operations and Strategy
Rio Tinto Announces Share Vesting and Acquisition for Key Personnel
Positive
Oct 22, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced the vesting and acquisition of shares under its Global Employee Share Plan (myShare) and UK Share Plan (UKSP) for key management personnel. The vesting involves the allocation of matching shares to employees, which are subject to a three-year holding period. This initiative reflects Rio Tinto’s commitment to aligning employee interests with company performance, potentially enhancing employee engagement and retention.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Announces Key Management Share Transactions
Neutral
Oct 22, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced a series of transactions involving key management personnel under its Global Employee Share Plan. These transactions, which include the vesting and acquisition of shares, were conducted by Peter Cunningham, Katie Jackson, and Jérôme Pécresse, who hold significant roles within the company. The transactions reflect the company’s ongoing commitment to aligning management interests with shareholder value, potentially impacting the company’s market positioning and stakeholder relations.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Rio Tinto Achieves Record Production in Q3 2025 Amid Strategic Shifts
Positive
Oct 14, 2025

Rio Tinto reported strong production results for the third quarter of 2025, with record outputs in its bauxite business and significant progress in copper production at Oyu Tolgoi. The company has upgraded its bauxite production guidance and remains on track to meet its overall production targets for the year. Despite challenges such as a tragic incident at the SimFer mine and external economic pressures, Rio Tinto continues to focus on safety and operational efficiency, aiming for a robust year-end performance. The company’s strategic initiatives, including a new operating model and executive team, are expected to simplify operations and unlock additional shareholder value.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rio Tinto Announces Key Management Transaction in ADRs
Neutral
Oct 3, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced a transaction involving the acquisition of American Depository Receipts (ADRs) under a dividend reinvestment plan by Jennifer Nason, a Non-Executive Director. This transaction, conducted on the NYSE, reflects the company’s ongoing efforts to engage key management personnel in its financial strategies, potentially influencing investor confidence and market perception.

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rio Tinto Management Acquires Shares Through Dividend Reinvestment Plan
Positive
Oct 3, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced that its key management personnel have acquired shares in the company through its Dividend Reinvestment Plan. This plan allows shareholders to reinvest their cash dividends to purchase additional Rio Tinto shares, reflecting confidence in the company’s financial health and growth prospects. The acquisition of shares by management is a positive signal to the market, potentially enhancing investor confidence and supporting the company’s stock value.

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rio Tinto’s Key Management Acquires Shares via Dividend Reinvestment
Positive
Oct 2, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced the acquisition of shares by its key management personnel through dividend reinvestment plans across its Share Plan Account, UK Share Plan, and Global Employee Share Plan. This move reflects the company’s commitment to aligning management interests with shareholder value, potentially strengthening its market position and stakeholder confidence.

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rio Tinto Executives Acquire Shares Under Dividend Reinvestment Plan
Positive
Oct 2, 2025

Rio Tinto announced the acquisition of shares by key management personnel under a dividend reinvestment plan. This move involves several executives, including the Chief Financial Officer and various Chief Executives of different segments, acquiring ordinary shares at a price of £48.69941 per share. This transaction highlights the company’s ongoing efforts to align management interests with shareholder value, potentially strengthening its market position and signaling confidence in its financial strategies.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Announces Total Voting Rights and Issued Capital
Neutral
Oct 1, 2025

Rio Tinto announced its total voting rights and issued capital as of September 30, 2025, with an issued share capital comprising over 1.25 billion ordinary shares. This disclosure is in line with the Financial Conduct Authority’s rules and is crucial for shareholders to determine their notification obligations regarding their interests in the company. The announcement also highlights the company’s dual listed companies (DLC) structure with Rio Tinto Limited, which facilitates joint voting and positions shareholders as if they held shares in a single enterprise.

Dividends
Rio Tinto Announces 2025 Interim Dividend Currency Exchange Rates
Neutral
Sep 16, 2025

Rio Tinto announced the currency exchange rates for its 2025 interim dividend, initially declared on 30 July 2025. Shareholders of Rio Tinto plc and Rio Tinto Limited, as well as ADR holders, will receive their dividends in US dollars, with the option to convert to pounds sterling, Australian dollars, or New Zealand dollars at specified rates. The dividend payment is scheduled for 25 September 2025, reflecting the company’s commitment to shareholder returns and its stable financial performance.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Key Management Personnel Acquires Shares
Positive
Sep 12, 2025

Rio Tinto announced that Ben Wyatt, a person discharging managerial responsibility, acquired 200 shares of Rio Tinto Limited at a price of AUD 114.93 per share. This transaction is part of the company’s dual-listed structure, which requires notification of dealings in securities to both the Australian Securities Exchange and the London Stock Exchange. The acquisition by a key management personnel may indicate confidence in the company’s future prospects and could have implications for investor sentiment.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 07, 2025