Rio Tinto (GB:RIO)
LSE:RIO
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Rio Tinto
(LSE:RIO)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
7,901.00 p
â–²(16.67% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/20/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance despite mid-cycle pressures (margin compression, higher debt, and weaker FCF conversion). Technicals add support via a clear uptrend and healthy momentum. Valuation is fair with an attractive dividend, while earnings-call positives (productivity and copper growth) are tempered by safety, debt, iron ore weakness, and near-term volume headwinds.
Positive Factors
Operating cash generation
Rio Tinto's operating cash flow outpacing net income in 2025 indicates strong earnings quality and robust cash generation. Over the medium term this supports funding of heavy project capex, sustaining dividend payouts, and provides resilience through commodity cycles without immediate reliance on fresh external financing.
Negative Factors
Sharp debt increase
A material step‑up in gross debt in 2025 reduces balance‑sheet headroom and increases interest and refinancing sensitivity through the cycle. While gearing remains moderate, higher leverage constrains flexibility for additional large projects and increases the importance of successful asset sales or stronger cash conversion to restore conservative metrics.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Operating cash generation
Rio Tinto's operating cash flow outpacing net income in 2025 indicates strong earnings quality and robust cash generation. Over the medium term this supports funding of heavy project capex, sustaining dividend payouts, and provides resilience through commodity cycles without immediate reliance on fresh external financing.
Read all positive factors
Rio Tinto (RIO) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£116.00B
Dividend Yield4.75%
Average Volume (3M)2.97M
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.0
Beta (1Y)1.21
Revenue Growth-3.50%
EPS Growth-7.04%
CountryUK
Employees60,000
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.88
Shares Outstanding1,255,010,600
10 Day Avg. Volume2,191,880
30 Day Avg. Volume2,969,863
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.08
Price to Book (P/B)2.10
Price to Sales (P/S)2.23
P/FCF Ratio26.67
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£6,812.31Price Target Upside0.60% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)8.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)£60.53B
Rio Tinto Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Rio Tinto Group engages in exploring, mining, and processing mineral resources worldwide. The company offers aluminum, copper, diamonds, gold, borates, titanium dioxide, salt, iron ore, and lithium. It also owns and operates open pit and undergrou...
How the Company Makes Money
Rio Tinto generates revenue primarily through the sale of its mined products across various sectors. Its key revenue streams include iron ore, which constitutes a substantial portion of its income, followed by aluminum, copper, and diamonds. The c...
Rio Tinto Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive operational and financial picture: record and growing copper and bauxite production, rising EBITDA (driven by copper and aluminum), completed major project milestones (OT underground, first Simandou shipment), and clear productivity initiatives unlocking a $650m run rate with expectations for materially higher cash benefits in 2026. Offsetting factors include a fatal safety incident at Simandou with immediate operational impacts, a rise in net debt (post‑acquisition), weaker iron ore earnings, cyclone-related costs, and near-term volume headwinds from scheduled closures and grade decline. Management emphasized capital discipline, project execution, and a pipeline of growth options while retaining a strong dividend policy.Positive Updates
Production Growth — Copper Equivalent
Copper equivalent production increased 8% year-on-year, with annual production records set for both copper and bauxite; management reiterated ambition of ~3% CAGR in copper equivalent production through the end of the decade.
Negative Updates
Fatal Safety Incident at Simandou
A fatality occurred at the Simandou mine site during construction; immediate actions include stopping site works, launching independent internal and external investigations, and appointing an independent safety advisory panel — a material operational and reputational concern.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Production Growth — Copper Equivalent
Copper equivalent production increased 8% year-on-year, with annual production records set for both copper and bauxite; management reiterated ambition of ~3% CAGR in copper equivalent production through the end of the decade.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The management guidance emphasized disciplined growth and cost improvement, including a 3% CAGR target for copper‑equivalent production to the end of the decade after an 8% copper‑equivalent increase in 2025, delivery of a $650m annualized productivity run‑rate by end‑Q1 (with 2026 cash improvements materially above the Q1 run‑rate), and nearly $3bn of volume improvement year‑on‑year contributing to a $2.9bn sales uplift and an $800m unit‑cost benefit; key project and capacity targets include ~500,000 tpa copper from Oyu Tolgoi (2028–2036), 60 Mtpa iron ore from Simandou at full ramp, and ~200,000 tpa lithium capacity by 2028; financial metrics/guidance comprised underlying EBITDA $25.4bn (up 9%), underlying earnings $10.9bn with a 60% payout ($6.5bn dividend), net debt $14.4bn (gearing ~18%), iron ore unit cost guidance $23.50–$25/t (2026), group CapEx ~up to $11bn for the next two years then stepping to $10bn, a $5–10bn capital‑release target (testing RTIT and Borates), and an exploration tilt of 85% of budget to copper.Rio Tinto Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 58.85B | 53.66B | 54.04B | 55.55B | 63.49B |
| Gross Profit | 15.60B | 30.28B | 32.40B | 34.27B | 44.93B |
| EBITDA | 22.31B | 23.16B | 21.08B | 25.54B | 36.13B |
| Net Income | 10.18B | 11.55B | 10.06B | 12.39B | 21.11B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 128.15B | 102.79B | 103.55B | 96.74B | 102.90B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.45B | 7.20B | 9.78B | 8.94B | 15.35B |
| Total Debt | 24.59B | 13.86B | 14.35B | 12.27B | 13.53B |
| Total Liabilities | 61.10B | 44.82B | 47.21B | 44.47B | 46.31B |
| Stockholders Equity | 62.23B | 55.25B | 54.59B | 50.17B | 51.43B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.91B | 5.98B | 8.07B | 9.38B | 17.96B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 17.51B | 15.60B | 15.16B | 16.13B | 25.34B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -18.08B | -9.59B | -6.96B | -6.71B | -7.16B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 864.77M | -7.09B | -5.28B | -15.47B | -15.86B |
Rio Tinto Technical Analysis
Positive
6772.00
Price Trends
6746.12
Positive
6151.98
Positive
5338.05
Positive
Market Momentum
-67.18
Positive
53.59
Neutral
68.50
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:RIO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6772 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6654.20, above the 50-day MA of 6746.12, and above the 200-day MA of 5338.05, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -67.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:RIO.
Rio Tinto Risk Analysis
Rio Tinto disclosed 14 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Rio Tinto reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
Being responsible operators throughout the entire life ofour assets – from discovery to closure Q4, 2024
2.
Preventing loss of operational control that may lead to potential fatalities, permanent disablements, or material production disruption Q4, 2024
3.
Remaining competitive through economic cycles or shocks by maintaining strong financial and operating performance, underpinned by a healthy inventory of high-quality reserves Q4, 2024
Rio Tinto Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | £116.00B | 6.00 | 16.59% | 4.75% | -3.50% | -7.04% | |
65 Neutral | £469.73M | 11.82 | 3.23% | ― | -32.18% | -58.29% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
60 Neutral | £64.74B | 176.08 | 0.96% | 1.89% | -1.06% | -285.88% | |
50 Neutral | £171.56M | -0.89 | -4.54% | 7.30% | 6.65% | -159.09% | |
48 Neutral | £33.38B | -11.13 | -20.10% | 0.80% | -27.65% | -160.77% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
GB:RIO
Rio Tinto
6,772.00
2,346.89
53.04%
GB:AAL
Anglo American
3,093.00
999.79
47.76%
GB:GFM
Griffin Mining
266.00
88.00
49.44%
GB:GLEN
Glencore
553.50
277.25
100.36%
GB:KMR
Kenmare Resources
194.00
-183.03
-48.55%
Rio Tinto Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Rio Tinto lifts earnings quality with higher output, cost cuts and new growth projects
Positive
Feb 19, 2026
Rio Tinto reported an 8% increase in copper-equivalent production in 2025, driven by the ramp-up of the Oyu Tolgoi underground copper mine and strong Pilbara iron ore output, which helped lift underlying EBITDA 9% to $25.4 billion and operating ca...
Business Operations and Strategy
Rio Tinto reshapes resource base with major reserve and classification updates
Neutral
Feb 19, 2026
Rio Tinto has updated its Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves ahead of its 2025 annual reporting, announcing a series of reclassifications and volume changes across key copper, aluminium and borates assets. The adjustments reflect new drilling data...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Rio Tinto sets date for 2025 full-year results webcast
Neutral
Feb 19, 2026
Rio Tinto has scheduled its 2025 full-year results presentation for 19 February 2026, to be delivered by Chief Executive Simon Trott and Chief Financial Officer Peter Cunningham via a live webcast. The company has made the accompanying presentatio...
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
Rio Tinto Sets Key Dates for 2026 Annual General Meetings
Neutral
Feb 19, 2026
Rio Tinto has set the timetable for its 2026 annual general meetings, outlining governance milestones for shareholders and potential board candidates. Nominations for director positions not put forward by the board must be received by 2 March 2026...
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Publishes 2025 Annual and Sustainability Reports
Neutral
Feb 19, 2026
Rio Tinto has released its 2025 Annual Report, making it available via the Australian Securities Exchange, the company’s website and the UK National Storage Mechanism, with hard copies provided to shareholders on request. The group also plan...
Executive/Board Changes
Rio Tinto to Replace Chief Legal, Governance & Corporate Affairs Officer in 2026
Neutral
Feb 12, 2026
Rio Tinto has announced that Isabelle Deschamps, its Chief Legal, Governance Corporate Affairs Officer, will leave the company during 2026 after five years in the role to pursue opportunities outside the group. She will remain in position until a...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Rio Tinto Walks Away from Potential Glencore Tie-Up on Value Grounds
Neutral
Feb 5, 2026
Rio Tinto has formally withdrawn from talks over a potential merger or business combination with Glencore, stating it could not reach an agreement that would create sufficient value for its shareholders. The decision, made under the disciplined ca...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Updates Market on Total Voting Rights and Dual-Listed Share Structure
Neutral
Feb 2, 2026
Rio Tinto plc has updated the market on its share capital and voting rights, confirming that as of 30 January 2026 it has 1,256,023,083 ordinary shares in issue, of which 1,547,592 are held in treasury and carry no dividend or voting entitlements....
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Executives Acquire Shares Under Global and UK Employee Plans
Positive
Jan 22, 2026
Rio Tinto has disclosed share acquisitions by three senior executives under its employee share schemes, in line with market abuse regulations. Chief Financial Officer Peter Cunningham, Chief Executive of Copper Katie Jackson, and Chief Executive o...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Reports Executive Share Acquisitions Under Employee Plans
Neutral
Jan 22, 2026
Rio Tinto has disclosed routine share dealings by persons discharging managerial responsibilities under its Global Employee Share Plan (myShare) and UK Share Plan, as required under its dual-listed company structure in London and Australia. On 19 ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Rio Tinto Delivers Strong 2025 Production Growth and Confirms 2026 Output Targets
Positive
Jan 21, 2026
Rio Tinto reported an 8% year-on-year increase in 2025 copper-equivalent production, underpinned by record quarterly iron ore output in the Pilbara, an 11% rise in copper volumes following completion and ramp-up of the Oyu Tolgoi underground mine,...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Rio Tinto Confirms Preliminary Talks on Possible All-Share Merger With Glencore
Positive
Jan 9, 2026
Rio Tinto has confirmed that it is in preliminary talks with Glencore over a potential combination of some or all of their businesses, including the possibility of an all-share merger that would see Rio Tinto acquire Glencore via a UK court-sancti...
DividendsFinancial Disclosures
Rio Tinto Sets Out 2026 Dividend and Results Timetable
Neutral
Jan 8, 2026
Rio Tinto has released its key financial calendar for 2026, detailing the timetable for its 2025 final dividend and 2026 interim dividend, including results announcement dates, ex-dividend dates, record dates, and payment dates for shareholders in...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Updates Market on Total Voting Rights and Dual-Listed Capital Structure
Neutral
Jan 2, 2026
Rio Tinto plc has confirmed that, as of 31 December 2025, its issued share capital consisted of 1,256,010,314 ordinary shares, of which 1,717,902 are held in treasury and therefore excluded from dividend payments and voting at shareholder meetings...
Business Operations and Strategy
Rio Tinto Highlights Lithium Growth in Argentina
Positive
Dec 8, 2025
Rio Tinto has announced an investor site visit to Argentina to showcase its integrated lithium business and growth prospects. This initiative underscores the company’s commitment to expanding its presence in the lithium sector, which is cruc...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Announces Share Acquisition by Key Management Personnel
Neutral
Dec 4, 2025
Rio Tinto has announced a notification to the London Stock Exchange regarding the acquisition of shares by Jennifer Nason, a person discharging managerial responsibility, as part of compliance with the EU Market Abuse Regulation. This acquisition ...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Announces ADR Acquisition by Non-Executive Director
Neutral
Dec 4, 2025
Rio Tinto has announced a transaction involving the acquisition of American Depository Receipts (ADR) by Jennifer Nason, a Non-Executive Director of the company. The transaction, which took place on November 28, 2025, involved the purchase of 107 ...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto CFO Engages in Share Transactions Under Equity Incentive Plan
Neutral
Dec 4, 2025
Rio Tinto announced a transaction involving its Chief Financial Officer, Peter Cunningham, who acquired shares from the 2022 Bonus Deferral Award under the 2018 Equity Incentive Plan. The transaction included the acquisition of shares in lieu of d...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Rio Tinto Announces Vesting of Bonus Deferral Awards for Key Management
Neutral
Dec 4, 2025
Rio Tinto has announced the vesting of Bonus Deferral Awards (BDA) for its key management personnel, as part of its 2018 Equity Incentive Plan. The awards, which constitute 50% of annual bonuses, are delivered in the form of deferred shares and ve...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Rio Tinto Reports Initial Lithium Resources and Reserves
Positive
Dec 4, 2025
Rio Tinto has announced the initial reporting of Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves for seven lithium assets acquired through the purchase of Arcadium Lithium. These assets include four lithium brine deposits in Argentina and three hard rock spodu...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Rio Tinto Unveils Strategic Plan for Enhanced Returns and Growth
Positive
Dec 4, 2025
Rio Tinto has announced a strategic plan to enhance its operational efficiency and financial performance, aiming to become the most valued metals and mining company. The strategy involves streamlining operations into three core businesses—Ir...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Updates on Voting Rights and Issued Capital
Neutral
Dec 1, 2025
Rio Tinto has announced its total voting rights and issued capital as of November 28, 2025, in compliance with the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rule. The company has 1,256,010,228 ordinary shares, with 1,717,902 held in treasur...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Announces Share Acquisition by Non-Executive Director
Neutral
Dec 1, 2025
Rio Tinto has announced a transaction involving the acquisition of ordinary shares by Ngaire Woods, a Non-Executive Director, as part of a market purchase. This move reflects internal managerial activities and is disclosed under the Market Abuse R...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Announces Key Management Share Acquisition
Neutral
Dec 1, 2025
Rio Tinto has announced the acquisition of shares by Ngaire Woods, a person discharging managerial responsibility, as part of its compliance with the EU Market Abuse Regulation. This transaction, reported to both the Australian Securities Exchange...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.