FRESNILLO PLC (GB:FRES)
LSE:FRES
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FRESNILLO
(LSE:FRES)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
3,521.00 p
▼(-1.62% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/06/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (sharp 2025 profitability and cash-flow rebound with low leverage) and a generally positive earnings outlook with a credible project pipeline. This is moderated by weaker near-term technical momentum (trading below the 20/50-day averages) and a valuation that is not especially cheap (P/E ~23.4), alongside 2026 transition-year and higher CapEx/tax cash-headwind risks highlighted on the call.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation and liquidity
Fresnillo produced exceptional free cash flow (~$2bn) and finished 2025 with ~ $2.76–2.8bn cash. That durable cash cushion sustains project funding, sizable dividends and M&A optionality through commodity cycles, reducing refinancing and liquidity risk over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Near-term cash drain: higher CapEx and tax timing
Management guides materially higher 2026 capex (~$765m vs prior ~$500–550m) alongside significant provisional tax outflows (~$500m timing hit). These structurally increase near-term cash deployment and reduce free cash flow available for discretionary returns or buffers during the transition year.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation and liquidity
Fresnillo produced exceptional free cash flow (~$2bn) and finished 2025 with ~ $2.76–2.8bn cash. That durable cash cushion sustains project funding, sizable dividends and M&A optionality through commodity cycles, reducing refinancing and liquidity risk over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
FRESNILLO (FRES) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£26.37B
Dividend Yield2.05%
Average Volume (3M)1.17M
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.4
Beta (1Y)1.15
Revenue Growth34.84%
EPS Growth78.48%
CountryUK
Employees7,179
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryOther Precious Metals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.12
Shares Outstanding736,893,550
10 Day Avg. Volume935,390
30 Day Avg. Volume1,170,406
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.03
Price to Book (P/B)7.13
Price to Sales (P/S)7.17
P/FCF Ratio16.67
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£3,843.12Price Target Upside7.38% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)3.27
Revenue Forecast (FY)£6.66B
FRESNILLO Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Fresnillo plc mines, develops, and produces non-ferrous minerals in Mexico. It operates through seven segments: Fresnillo, Saucito, Ciénega, Herradura, Noche Buena, San Julián, and Other. The company primarily explores for silver, gold, lead, and ...
How the Company Makes Money
Fresnillo makes money primarily by selling the metals it produces—mainly silver and gold—into commodities markets. Revenue is generated when produced metal (or metal contained in concentrates/doré, depending on the site’s process route) is sold to...
FRESNILLO Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call portrays a strongly positive financial and strategic position driven by record prices, exceptional cash generation, a large dividend payout and a value-accretive M&A adding significant gold resources. Management acknowledged operational and timing headwinds (notably a transitional 2026 with temporary production impacts, a metallurgical issue at Cienega, tax timing/cash pressure, and higher near-term CapEx), but presented mitigation plans, brownfield production coming online (Valles, Noche Buena) and a stepped-up exploration and development program. On balance the positive financial outcomes, balance sheet strength, resource/reserve growth and clear project pipeline outweigh near-term operational and tax timing challenges.Positive Updates
Record Financial Performance
Revenue and profitability surged in 2025: gross profit +114% YoY, operating profit +142% YoY, profit for the period ~+600% YoY, and EBITDA +81% YoY, driven primarily by higher precious metal prices.
Negative Updates
2026 Transition Year — Silver Production Pressure
Management flagged 2026 as a transition year with lower silver guidance due to staging and timing (Fresnillo not bringing in higher-grade zones this year and temporary impacts from Saucito shaft works), implying weaker near-term silver output.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Financial Performance
Revenue and profitability surged in 2025: gross profit +114% YoY, operating profit +142% YoY, profit for the period ~+600% YoY, and EBITDA +81% YoY, driven primarily by higher precious metal prices.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company said 2026 is a transition year but reiterated a clear path to higher output in 2027–28 driven by brownfield projects (Valles: 60–80k oz/year from mid‑2027; Noche Buena: 40–50k oz/year early next year) and later greenfields (Rodeo 75–90k oz/year from ~2029, Novador ~2032, Orisyvo and Guanajuato ~2033). Key financial and capital metrics: 2025 delivered record results (gross profit +$1.4bn, operating profit +142%, profit for period ~+600%, EBITDA +81%), generated ~$2.8bn cash from operations and >$2bn free cash flow, finished with ~$2.76bn cash, returned $950m to shareholders (69% of earnings), spent $175m on exploration/800k+ m drilling in 2025 and guided exploration to $308m in 2026 (35% to advanced projects). Cost and tax guidance: consolidated cost inflation was effectively flat in 2025 (0.24% deflation after FX), 2026 budgeting assumes ~6% inflation (ex‑FX), sustaining/operating CapEx ~ $765m in 2026 (vs. prior ~$500–550m run‑rate), a $3bn approximate 5‑year growth spend pipeline, and materially higher provisional cash tax payments (expect ~+$500m cash tax in March 2026); reserves/resources noted at ~2bn oz Ag and 44m oz Au (Probe Gold adds ~10m oz Au), with site‑level reserve metrics and projects (e.g., Fresnillo ~20Mt @ ~200 g/t Ag, Saucito ~17.5Mt @ >200 g/t Ag, Juanicipio ~10.3Mt @ ~200 g/t Ag) driving the outlook.FRESNILLO Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
83
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.61B | 3.50B | 2.71B | 2.43B | 2.70B |
| Gross Profit | 2.47B | 1.24B | 503.24M | 536.02M | 936.92M |
| EBITDA | 2.80B | 1.35B | 697.03M | 829.22M | 1.20B |
| Net Income | 1.41B | 140.92M | 233.91M | 271.90M | 421.21M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 7.28B | 5.88B | 5.74B | 5.91B | 5.77B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.76B | 1.30B | 534.58M | 969.06M | 1.24B |
| Total Debt | 851.28M | 853.46M | 948.95M | 1.28B | 1.28B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.21B | 1.67B | 1.67B | 2.00B | 1.96B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.63B | 3.86B | 3.77B | 3.69B | 3.62B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.98B | 929.26M | -57.49M | -89.94M | 303.09M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.39B | 1.30B | 425.92M | 502.19M | 895.14M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -26.70M | -465.46M | -369.53M | -514.18M | -501.56M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -780.50M | -248.28M | -495.83M | -254.11M | -227.32M |
FRESNILLO Technical Analysis
Positive
3579.00
Price Trends
3632.86
Negative
3453.95
Positive
2709.31
Positive
Market Momentum
4.41
Negative
52.77
Neutral
60.70
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:FRES, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3579 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3362.55, below the 50-day MA of 3632.86, and above the 200-day MA of 2709.31, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 4.41 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.70 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:FRES.
FRESNILLO Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | £26.37B | 23.39 | 32.98% | 2.05% | 34.84% | 78.48% | |
63 Neutral | £282.12M | 3.84 | 14.10% | 2.58% | 24.10% | 182.94% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
53 Neutral | £524.63M | -16.62 | -25.01% | ― | ― | ― | |
44 Neutral | £253.99M | -74.29 | -24.90% | ― | ― | ― | |
41 Neutral | £87.80M | 7.11 | -7.12% | ― | 220.69% | -400.00% | |
41 Neutral | £58.20M | ― | -186.54% | ― | -45.11% | 2.30% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
GB:FRES
FRESNILLO
3,579.00
2,567.21
253.73%
GB:EUA
Eurasia Mining
2.98
-1.35
-31.13%
GB:EEE
Empire Metals
34.75
24.45
237.38%
GB:SLP
Sylvania Platinum
109.00
61.03
127.21%
GB:PDL
Petra Diamonds
17.35
-8.34
-32.47%
GB:GMET
Golden Metal Resources Plc
270.00
230.60
585.28%
FRESNILLO Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Fresnillo Delivers Record 2025 Earnings and Boosts Payout on Strong Metal Prices
Positive
Mar 3, 2026
Fresnillo reported record 2025 results, with adjusted revenue up 27.6% to US$4.65 billion and EBITDA rising 80.7% to US$2.80 billion, driven mainly by higher precious metal prices and tight cost control despite lower production volumes. Profit for...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Fresnillo Beats 2025 Gold Guidance but Lowers Near-Term Output Targets
Neutral
Jan 28, 2026
Fresnillo reported a solid operational performance for 2025, with full-year attributable gold output of 600.3 koz surpassing guidance despite falling 5% year on year, while total attributable silver production, including the now-ended Silverstream...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Fresnillo Enters Canada With CAD$770m Acquisition of Probe Gold
Positive
Jan 22, 2026
Fresnillo plc has completed its acquisition of Canada’s Probe Gold Inc. for approximately CAD$770 million in cash, securing a 10 million-ounce gold resource base centred on the Novador project in Quebec’s Val d’Or district. The d...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.