FRESNILLO (FRES) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £27.75B
• Dividend Yield: 2.05%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.14M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 78.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.78
• Revenue Growth: 34.84%
• EPS Growth: 78.48%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 7,179
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Other Precious Metals
• EPS (TTM): 0.53
• Shares Outstanding: 736,893,550
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,409,396
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,137,498
• PEG Ratio: -1.00
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.49
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.64
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.17
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £3,181.21
• Price Target Upside: -15.26% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): 175.83
• Revenue Forecast (FY): £395.98B

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: 4,101.00p ▲(9.24% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (better margins, low leverage, and significantly improved cash flow) and supportive earnings-call outlook. These positives are tempered by an overbought technical setup and a demanding valuation (high P/E), which raise near-term risk and reduce margin of safety.

Positive Factors

Free Cash Flow Strength

A marked increase in operating and free cash flow in 2024 strengthens durable liquidity and funds capex, project development and shareholder returns without adding leverage. Reliable cash generation reduces refinancing risk across commodity cycles and supports strategic optionality.

Conservative Balance Sheet

Low leverage and a ~65.6% equity ratio provide lasting financial flexibility to absorb commodity shocks, finance development projects, and pursue opportunistic M&A. A conservative capital structure lowers insolvency risk and preserves capacity for investment or shareholder returns over the medium term.

Scale and Resource Base

Market leadership and a large resource inventory (2.2bn oz silver, 38.5m oz gold) underpin long mine life, operating scale and bargaining power. This structural position supports steady production, spreads fixed costs and improves project economics versus smaller peers over multiple years.

Negative Factors

Safety Incidents

Recent fatalities highlight persistent safety and operational risk; serious incidents can prompt regulatory scrutiny, production stoppages, higher compliance costs and reputational harm. Over time safety failures can increase operating costs and impair workforce stability and permitting timelines.

Mine-Level Operational Disruptions

Unstable access at San Rafael and metallurgy issues at Ciénega indicate site-specific operational vulnerabilities. Recurring access or processing problems create production volatility, raise unit costs and delay expected project outputs, reducing mid-term volume visibility and cash flow predictability.

Silverstream Buyback Impact

The Silverstream buyback reduced attributable silver production and produced a $133m non-cash after-tax loss, altering future production mix and requiring cash deployment. Structurally this changes revenue timing and margins and constrains near-term metal sales and free cash flow composition.

FRESNILLO Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Fresnillo plc mines, develops, and produces non-ferrous minerals in Mexico. It operates through seven segments: Fresnillo, Saucito, Ciénega, Herradura, Noche Buena, San Julián, and Other. The company primarily explores for silver, gold, lead, and zinc concentrates. Its projects include Fresnillo silver mine located in the state of Zacatecas; Saucito silver mine situated in the state of Zacatecas; Ciénega gold mine located in the state of Durango; Herradura gold mine situated in the state of Sonora; Noche Buena gold mine located in the state of Sonora; and San Julián silver-gold mine situated on the border of Chihuahua/Durango states. The company has mining concessions covering an area of approximately 1.7 million hectares of surface land in Mexico. It also leases mining equipment; produces gold/silver doré bars; and provides administrative services. The company was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico. Fresnillo plc is a subsidiary of Industrias Peñoles S.A.B. de C.V.

How the Company Makes Money

Fresnillo generates revenue primarily through the sale of precious metals, specifically silver and gold. The company operates several mining assets and is involved in both the extraction and processing of these metals. Its revenue model is based on the volume of metals produced and the market prices of silver and gold, which can fluctuate based on global demand and economic conditions. Key revenue streams include direct sales of metals to refineries and other customers, as well as the sale of by-products from its mining operations. Additionally, Fresnillo benefits from long-term contracts with customers, which provide stable revenue. The company also invests in exploration to discover new resources, thus ensuring a continuous supply of minerals for future revenue generation.

FRESNILLO Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fresnillo exhibits strong financial health with improvements in revenue and cash flow, despite fluctuations in net income. The company has effectively managed its debt levels, enhancing financial stability and operational efficiency.

Income Statement

Fresnillo has shown robust revenue growth with a significant increase from 2023 to 2024, improving its gross and net profit margins. Gross Profit Margin increased to approximately 35.4%, and Net Profit Margin rose to 4.03% in 2024. The EBIT and EBITDA margins also improved, indicating better operational efficiency. However, the company faced a net income decline in 2023, which is a concern.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is strong with a healthy Debt-to-Equity ratio of about 0.22 and an improved Equity Ratio of 65.6% as of 2024, indicating a stable financial structure. The company's ROE has slightly decreased, reflecting lower profitability relative to shareholder equity. However, the reduction in total debt and increase in cash reserves bolster financial stability.

Cash Flow

Fresnillo's cash flow position is notably strong with a substantial increase in operating cash flow and free cash flow in 2024. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is positive, indicating efficient cash generation relative to profits. The company's ability to generate cash flow suggests good liquidity and potential for reinvestment or debt reduction.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.94B	3.50B	2.71B	2.43B	2.70B	2.43B
Gross Profit	1.87B	1.24B	503.24M	536.02M	936.92M	879.37M
EBITDA	1.66B	1.35B	697.03M	829.22M	1.20B	1.25B
Net Income	456.05M	140.92M	233.91M	271.90M	421.21M	374.12M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.88B	5.88B	5.74B	5.91B	5.77B	5.67B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.82B	1.30B	534.58M	969.06M	1.24B	1.07B
Total Debt	850.46M	853.46M	948.95M	1.28B	1.28B	1.23B
Total Liabilities	1.73B	1.67B	1.67B	2.00B	1.96B	2.06B
Stockholders Equity	3.79B	3.86B	3.77B	3.69B	3.62B	3.48B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.58B	929.26M	-57.49M	-89.94M	303.09M	505.36M
Operating Cash Flow	1.94B	1.30B	425.92M	502.19M	895.14M	917.68M
Investing Cash Flow	-349.13M	-465.46M	-369.53M	-514.18M	-501.56M	-366.10M
Financing Cash Flow	-731.45M	-248.28M	-495.83M	-254.11M	-227.32M	178.73M

FRESNILLO Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 3754.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:FRES, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3754 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3389.10, above the 50-day MA of 2865.08, and above the 200-day MA of 1910.97, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 254.70 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.54 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.95 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:FRES.

FRESNILLO Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FRES	73 Outperform	£27.75B	78.85	11.97%	2.05%	34.84%	78.48%
SLP	65 Neutral	£301.76M	19.43	7.47%	2.58%	24.10%	182.94%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
GMET	55 Neutral	£265.75M	-93.20	-18.58%	―	―	―
EEE	50 Neutral	£319.90M	-64.29	-43.48%	―	―	―
EUA	43 Neutral	£101.82M	-69.00	-6.61%	―	220.69%	-400.00%
PDL	41 Neutral	£63.73M	-0.59	-70.13%	―	-45.11%	2.30%

FRESNILLO Corporate Events

Fresnillo Expands into Canada with Probe Gold Acquisition

Fresnillo plc has announced its acquisition of Probe Gold Inc., a Canadian exploration company, for approximately CAD$780 million. This strategic move marks Fresnillo’s entry into the Canadian market, particularly the Val d’Or Mining camp in Quebec, known for its rich gold mining history. The acquisition aligns with Fresnillo’s strategy to expand its resource base and enhance its portfolio with high-quality exploration projects. The Novador Gold Project, a key asset of Probe, offers substantial exploration potential and is expected to significantly contribute to Fresnillo’s long-term growth. The transaction is anticipated to close in Q1 2026, subject to shareholder and court approvals, and will be financed with Fresnillo’s existing cash reserves.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FRES) stock is a Buy with a £2333.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on FRESNILLO stock, see the GB:FRES Stock Forecast page.

Fresnillo PLC’s Q3 Report: Gold Production Up, Silver Down

Fresnillo PLC reported its third-quarter production results, showing a decrease in silver production due to lower ore grades and the cessation of mining activities at San Julián DOB. Gold production, however, showed an upward trend year-to-date, driven by strong performance at the Herradura mine. The company remains on track to meet its full-year guidance, with gold production expected to reach the upper end of the forecast range. Despite challenges in silver production, Fresnillo aims to capitalize on strong precious metals prices through efficient operations and a focus on safety.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FRES) stock is a Hold with a £22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on FRESNILLO stock, see the GB:FRES Stock Forecast page.