FRESNILLO (FRES) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £30.36B
• Dividend Yield: 2.05%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.30M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 88.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.55
• Revenue Growth: 34.84%
• EPS Growth: 78.48%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 7,179
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Other Precious Metals
• EPS (TTM): 1.12
• Shares Outstanding: 736,893,550
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 884,999
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,302,468
• PEG Ratio: -1.00
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.49
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.64
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.17
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £3,772.86
• Price Target Upside: -8.43% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.3
• Revenue Forecast (FY): £6.60B

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: 4,351.00p ▲(5.61% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/08/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/08/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (better margins, low leverage, and significantly improved cash flow) and supportive earnings-call outlook. These positives are tempered by an overbought technical setup and a demanding valuation (high P/E), which raise near-term risk and reduce margin of safety.

Positive Factors

Strong free cash flow

Sustained free cash flow exceeding $1bn provides durable financial optionality: it funds capex, supports debt reduction, and enables shareholder returns without relying on volatile capital markets. Strong cash conversion also cushions the company through commodity price cycles and funds growth projects.

Low leverage / solid balance sheet

A low debt-to-equity ratio and high equity ratio give Fresnillo durable financial resilience: it reduces refinancing risk, preserves capacity to invest in development projects, and provides flexibility to manage cyclical revenue swings typical in mining without compromising operations.

Leading resource base and scale

Large reserve and production scale underpin a multi-year production profile, enabling steady output and unit-cost advantages. The sizable silver and gold resource base supports long-term cash generation, project prioritization, and market positioning versus smaller peers in precious metals.

Negative Factors

Workplace safety incidents

Recent fatalities create lasting operational and reputational risk: regulatory scrutiny, potential stoppages, higher compliance and insurance costs, and community relations pressure can all raise operating costs and delay projects. Improving safety is essential to avoid recurring disruptions.

Operational disruptions at key mines

Access and metallurgy problems that reduce processed volumes indicate execution risk at existing assets. Persistent operational disruptions erode production guidance reliability, raise unit costs, and can defer cash flow generation from affected mines for multiple quarters, impacting long-term project sequencing.

Silverstream buyback impact

The Silverstream buyback altered production attribution and produced a sizable non-cash hit to reported earnings, increasing earnings volatility and changing future attributable ounces. Such structural alterations affect long-term revenue mix and complicate forecasting of metal-specific output.

FRESNILLO Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Fresnillo plc mines, develops, and produces non-ferrous minerals in Mexico. It operates through seven segments: Fresnillo, Saucito, Ciénega, Herradura, Noche Buena, San Julián, and Other. The company primarily explores for silver, gold, lead, and zinc concentrates. Its projects include Fresnillo silver mine located in the state of Zacatecas; Saucito silver mine situated in the state of Zacatecas; Ciénega gold mine located in the state of Durango; Herradura gold mine situated in the state of Sonora; Noche Buena gold mine located in the state of Sonora; and San Julián silver-gold mine situated on the border of Chihuahua/Durango states. The company has mining concessions covering an area of approximately 1.7 million hectares of surface land in Mexico. It also leases mining equipment; produces gold/silver doré bars; and provides administrative services. The company was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico. Fresnillo plc is a subsidiary of Industrias Peñoles S.A.B. de C.V.

How the Company Makes Money

Fresnillo generates revenue primarily through the sale of precious metals, specifically silver and gold. The company operates several mining assets and is involved in both the extraction and processing of these metals. Its revenue model is based on the volume of metals produced and the market prices of silver and gold, which can fluctuate based on global demand and economic conditions. Key revenue streams include direct sales of metals to refineries and other customers, as well as the sale of by-products from its mining operations. Additionally, Fresnillo benefits from long-term contracts with customers, which provide stable revenue. The company also invests in exploration to discover new resources, thus ensuring a continuous supply of minerals for future revenue generation.

FRESNILLO Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong overall fundamentals: improved 2024 revenue and margins, a solid balance sheet with low leverage (Debt-to-Equity ~0.22) and higher cash, and notably stronger operating and free cash flow in 2024. Main risk is earnings volatility (net income decline in 2023).

Income Statement

Fresnillo has shown robust revenue growth with a significant increase from 2023 to 2024, improving its gross and net profit margins. Gross Profit Margin increased to approximately 35.4%, and Net Profit Margin rose to 4.03% in 2024. The EBIT and EBITDA margins also improved, indicating better operational efficiency. However, the company faced a net income decline in 2023, which is a concern.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is strong with a healthy Debt-to-Equity ratio of about 0.22 and an improved Equity Ratio of 65.6% as of 2024, indicating a stable financial structure. The company's ROE has slightly decreased, reflecting lower profitability relative to shareholder equity. However, the reduction in total debt and increase in cash reserves bolster financial stability.

Cash Flow

Fresnillo's cash flow position is notably strong with a substantial increase in operating cash flow and free cash flow in 2024. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is positive, indicating efficient cash generation relative to profits. The company's ability to generate cash flow suggests good liquidity and potential for reinvestment or debt reduction.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.94B	3.50B	2.71B	2.43B	2.70B	2.43B
Gross Profit	1.87B	1.24B	503.24M	536.02M	936.92M	879.37M
EBITDA	1.66B	1.35B	697.03M	829.22M	1.20B	1.25B
Net Income	456.05M	140.92M	233.91M	271.90M	421.21M	374.12M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.88B	5.88B	5.74B	5.91B	5.77B	5.67B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.82B	1.30B	534.58M	969.06M	1.24B	1.07B
Total Debt	850.46M	853.46M	948.95M	1.28B	1.28B	1.23B
Total Liabilities	1.73B	1.67B	1.67B	2.00B	1.96B	2.06B
Stockholders Equity	3.79B	3.86B	3.77B	3.69B	3.62B	3.48B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.58B	929.26M	-57.49M	-89.94M	303.09M	505.36M
Operating Cash Flow	1.94B	1.30B	425.92M	502.19M	895.14M	917.68M
Investing Cash Flow	-349.13M	-465.46M	-369.53M	-514.18M	-501.56M	-366.10M
Financing Cash Flow	-731.45M	-248.28M	-495.83M	-254.11M	-227.32M	178.73M

FRESNILLO Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 4120.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:FRES, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4120 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3906.90, above the 50-day MA of 3760.76, and above the 200-day MA of 2387.81, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 117.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:FRES.

FRESNILLO Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FRES	73 Outperform	£30.36B	88.78	11.97%	2.05%	34.84%	78.48%
SLP	63 Neutral	£325.17M	11.98	7.47%	2.58%	24.10%	182.94%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
EEE	50 Neutral	£231.04M	-46.43	-43.48%	―	―	―
GMET	48 Neutral	£472.44M	-88.33	-18.58%	―	―	―
EUA	41 Neutral	£105.51M	-71.50	-6.61%	―	220.69%	-400.00%
PDL	41 Neutral	£57.02M	-0.53	-70.13%	―	-45.11%	2.30%

FRESNILLO Corporate Events

Fresnillo Beats 2025 Gold Guidance but Lowers Near-Term Output Targets

Fresnillo reported a solid operational performance for 2025, with full-year attributable gold output of 600.3 koz surpassing guidance despite falling 5% year on year, while total attributable silver production, including the now-ended Silverstream, declined 13.5% to 48.7 moz but remained in line with guidance. Fourth-quarter figures showed mixed trends, with higher silver, lead and zinc volumes versus the previous quarter but sharp year-on-year falls in gold and silver, reflecting lower grades, reduced ore throughput at key mines such as Herradura, Saucito, Ciénega and San Julián, the cessation of mining at San Julián DOB and the discontinuation of zinc concentrates at Ciénega. The company issued 2026 guidance that trims expected silver and gold production compared with prior indications, citing mine-plan changes at Fresnillo, lower throughput and grades at Ciénega and delayed infrastructure at Saucito, while signalling a recovery in volumes from 2027 as new high-grade areas and projects come on stream, suggesting a near-term production dip but a constructive medium-term outlook for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FRES) stock is a Hold with a £4513.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on FRESNILLO stock, see the GB:FRES Stock Forecast page.

Fresnillo Enters Canada With CAD$770m Acquisition of Probe Gold

Fresnillo plc has completed its acquisition of Canada’s Probe Gold Inc. for approximately CAD$770 million in cash, securing a 10 million-ounce gold resource base centred on the Novador project in Quebec’s Val d’Or district. The deal marks Fresnillo’s first project outside Mexico, giving it immediate exposure to a tier-one Canadian mining jurisdiction with strong infrastructure and a skilled workforce, while maintaining its robust balance sheet and dividend policy. Fresnillo plans to advance development of Novador, an advanced project expected to produce more than 200,000 ounces of gold annually for over a decade, and to explore Probe’s 1,798 km² land package, including the Detour Gold Quebec project, to unlock additional growth and strengthen its long-term position in precious metals.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FRES) stock is a Hold with a £4415.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on FRESNILLO stock, see the GB:FRES Stock Forecast page.