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FRESNILLO
(OTC:FRES)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
3,296.00 p
▲(29.46% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/04/26
The score is driven primarily by strong recent financial performance (profitability and cash flow rebound with low leverage) and supportive earnings-call signals (guidance reiterated and CapEx discipline). These positives are tempered by weak technical setup (below major moving averages with negative MACD) and commodity/cost sensitivity highlighted on the call.
Positive Factors
Strong Cash Generation
Strong operating and free cash flow provides internal funding for sustaining capital, mine development, dividends and acquisitions. This reduces dependence on external financing and supports resilience through parts of the metals cycle.
Negative Factors
Commodity-Cycle Exposure
Fresnillo sells metals priced largely against market benchmarks, so earnings remain exposed to silver and gold cycles. The sharp historical swings in margins and cash flow make durable profitability less predictable when prices weaken.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Cash Generation
Strong operating and free cash flow provides internal funding for sustaining capital, mine development, dividends and acquisitions. This reduces dependence on external financing and supports resilience through parts of the metals cycle.
Read all positive factors
FRESNILLO (FRES) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£21.59B
Dividend Yield3.91%
Average Volume (3M)947.98K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.6
Beta (1Y)1.27
Revenue Growth47.70%
EPS Growth382.60%
CountryUK
Employees7,177
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryOther Precious Metals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.08
Shares Outstanding736,893,550
10 Day Avg. Volume869,070
30 Day Avg. Volume947,983
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.03
Price to Book (P/B)7.13
Price to Sales (P/S)7.17
P/FCF Ratio16.67
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£3,248.75Price Target Upside27.60% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)2.96
Revenue Forecast (FY)£6.28B
FRESNILLO Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Fresnillo plc mines, develops, and produces non-ferrous minerals in Mexico. It operates through seven segments: Fresnillo, Saucito, Ciénega, Herradura, Noche Buena, San Julián, and Juanicipio. The company primarily explores for silver, gold, lead,...
How the Company Makes Money
Fresnillo makes money mainly by producing and selling precious metals—primarily silver and gold—derived from its operated mines. Revenue is recognized from metal sales under offtake and trading arrangements, where produced metal (or metal-bearing ...
FRESNILLO Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 09, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a strongly positive financial and strategic picture driven by exceptional H1 metal prices and record profitability, solid cash generation and shareholder returns, and clear brownfield/greenfield project progression. Material operational and cost headwinds were disclosed (higher production costs, temporary Saucito disruptions, equipment availability, permitting and long lead times for greenfields), but management presented mitigations, disciplined capital allocation (CapEx cut to $500–$550M), and confidence in meeting 2026 guidance. On balance, the positives from record earnings, cash flow, dividends, and active portfolio expansion outweigh the operational and cost challenges disclosed.Positive Updates
Record Financial Performance
First half 2026 delivered record results since IPO: gross profit up 131% YoY, operating profit up 149% YoY, profit for the period almost tripled vs prior year, EBITDA nearly doubled, and cash generated by operations ~ $2.36 billion (more than doubled). Gross profit improvement driven by increased adjusted revenues (+$1.4 billion).
Negative Updates
Higher Adjusted Production Costs
Adjusted production costs rose ~21% YoY (+$138M). Management attributes ~66% of the cost increase to external factors: Mexican peso revaluation (average FX 12.5% stronger) and cost inflation in consumables (~3.25%).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Financial Performance
First half 2026 delivered record results since IPO: gross profit up 131% YoY, operating profit up 149% YoY, profit for the period almost tripled vs prior year, EBITDA nearly doubled, and cash generated by operations ~ $2.36 billion (more than doubled). Gross profit improvement driven by increased adjusted revenues (+$1.4 billion).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reconfirmed they remain on track to meet 2026 guidance and left 2027–2028 silver‑equivalent production guidance unchanged, while flagging a slightly higher gold profile (driven by Fresnillo/Herradura trends) and a slightly lower silver run‑rate from Saucito; corporate CapEx is being rationalized to $500–$550m for the year and excludes major greenfield build‑outs for 2027–28 (only modest project spend next year, e.g. $40–50m for the Guanajuato shaft), and they used conservative short‑term price assumptions of $55/oz silver and $4,000/oz gold for budgeting and dividend math. Key project metrics: Valles expected to start production Q3 with a long‑run range of 50,000–90,000 oz Au/year (avg ~65,000) and a 10‑year life; Noche Buena restart planned Q4 with fresh ore from Q2 next year (~15k–20k oz in 2027, fuller contribution in 2028); Herradura underground estimated to add 120k–160k oz when it starts (~2032); Rodeo PEA raises potential to ~90k–110k oz Au/year (targeted in service end‑2029/early‑2030, PFS/permits pending, capex cited ~ $500m); Guanajuato Sur envisaged at ~15–17 Moz Ag/year from ~2033 with total project capex in the ~$700–900m range; Orisyvo and Novador each targeted at ~200k oz Au peak production (longer‑lead, higher capex projects).FRESNILLO Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
83
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.03B | 4.61B | 3.50B | 2.71B | 2.43B | 2.70B |
| Gross Profit | 3.80B | 2.47B | 1.24B | 503.24M | 536.02M | 936.92M |
| EBITDA | 4.06B | 2.80B | 1.35B | 697.03M | 829.22M | 1.20B |
| Net Income | 2.27B | 1.41B | 140.92M | 233.91M | 271.90M | 421.21M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.49B | 7.28B | 5.88B | 5.74B | 5.91B | 5.77B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.52B | 2.76B | 1.30B | 534.58M | 969.06M | 1.24B |
| Total Debt | 857.91M | 851.28M | 853.46M | 948.95M | 1.28B | 1.28B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.92B | 2.21B | 1.67B | 1.67B | 2.00B | 1.96B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.15B | 4.63B | 3.86B | 3.77B | 3.69B | 3.62B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.30B | 1.98B | 929.26M | -57.49M | -89.94M | 303.09M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.77B | 2.39B | 1.30B | 425.92M | 502.19M | 895.14M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -652.04M | -26.70M | -465.46M | -369.53M | -514.18M | -501.56M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.17B | -780.50M | -248.28M | -495.83M | -254.11M | -227.32M |
FRESNILLO Technical Analysis
Positive
2546.00
Price Trends
2737.99
Positive
3027.10
Negative
3112.42
Negative
Market Momentum
66.50
Negative
56.66
Neutral
60.39
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:FRES, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2546 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2689.46, below the 50-day MA of 2737.99, and below the 200-day MA of 3112.42, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 66.50 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:FRES.
FRESNILLO Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | £21.59B | 12.57 | 46.50% | 3.74% | 47.70% | 382.60% | |
64 Neutral | £222.59M | 8.33 | 14.10% | 4.76% | 70.88% | 218.79% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
52 Neutral | £341.28M | -88.27 | -24.90% | ― | ― | 22.39% | |
51 Neutral | £67.88M | 15.33 | 19.91% | ― | -18.31% | ― | |
44 Neutral | £20.64M | -0.09 | -333.85% | ― | ― | ― | |
38 Underperform | £354.55M | -56.50 | -25.01% | ― | ― | -157.72% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
GB:FRES
FRESNILLO
2,861.00
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81.94%
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FRESNILLO Corporate Events
Dividends
Fresnillo Sets Sterling Rate for 2026 Interim Dividend
Positive
Aug 18, 2026
Fresnillo plc has set the sterling conversion rate for its 2026 interim dividend at 1.35537 US dollars to the pound, translating the previously announced dividend of 43.4 US cents per share into 32.0208 pence per share. The interim payout is sched...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Fresnillo cashes in on surging precious metal prices with bumper interim profits
Positive
Aug 4, 2026
Fresnillo reported a sharp improvement in interim results for the six months to 30 June 2026, as historic strength in silver and gold prices more than offset lower production volumes. Revenues surged 74.7% to US$3.38 billion, gross profit climbed ...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Fresnillo Profits Soar on Strong Bullion Prices Despite Lower Output
Positive
Aug 4, 2026
Fresnillo reported a sharp surge in interim earnings for the six months to 30 June 2026, as historic strength in silver and gold prices more than offset lower production volumes. Revenues jumped 74.7% to US$3.38 billion and gross profit more than ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Fresnillo Delivers Solid Q2 Output and Reaffirms 2026 Guidance Despite Lower Silver and Gold
Neutral
Jul 22, 2026
Fresnillo reported a solid second-quarter operational performance, with attributable silver output slipping 1.7% quarter-on-quarter to 10.9 million ounces and falling 12.6% year-on-year, mainly due to lower grades at key mines and the planned end ...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Fresnillo Discloses Director’s New Role at Grupo Aeroméxico
Neutral
Jul 10, 2026
Fresnillo plc has disclosed that board member Ms Guadalupe de la Vega has been appointed as an Independent Non-Executive Director of Grupo Aeroméxico, which is listed on the Mexican Stock Exchange. The company notes that there is no further i...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Fresnillo Takes Strategic Stake in Sinda Ahead of NYSE IPO
Positive
Jun 22, 2026
Fresnillo has agreed to acquire up to 5% of the common shares of Sinda Ltd. through a private placement that will close concurrently with Sinda’s initial public offering and listing on the New York Stock Exchange. The move expands Fresnillo&...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Fresnillo Details US$415 Million in 2025 Payments to Governments
Neutral
Jun 15, 2026
Fresnillo plc has published its 2025 report on payments to governments, detailing US$415.4 million in disbursements related to its extractive activities in Mexico and Peru, in line with UK transparency regulations. The bulk of payments, US$414.25 ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsShareholder Meetings
Fresnillo Wins Strong Shareholder Backing at 2026 AGM
Positive
May 19, 2026
Fresnillo plc said shareholders approved all 24 resolutions at its 19 May 2026 annual general meeting, including ordinary and special resolutions relating to dividends, directors’ remuneration policies and the re-election of both executive a...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Fresnillo posts record 2025 profits, boosts dividend and expands into Canada
Positive
May 19, 2026
Fresnillo reported an exceptional 2025, driven by higher precious metal prices, improved operational efficiency and cost discipline, and a supportive peso devaluation. Silver output met guidance while gold production exceeded expectations, helping...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.