FRESNILLO PLC (GB:FRES)
OTHER OTC:FRES
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FRESNILLO
(OTC:FRES)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
3,314.00 p
▼(-12.37% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:03/06/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (sharp 2025 profitability and cash-flow rebound with low leverage) and a generally positive earnings outlook with a credible project pipeline. This is moderated by weaker near-term technical momentum (trading below the 20/50-day averages) and a valuation that is not especially cheap (P/E ~23.4), alongside 2026 transition-year and higher CapEx/tax cash-headwind risks highlighted on the call.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation & liquidity
Sustained multi‑billion free cash flow and a record cash balance (~$2.76–2.8bn) provide durable financial flexibility to fund higher 2026 CapEx, exploration, dividends and opportunistic M&A without immediate refinancing, supporting capital allocation through cycles.
Negative Factors
Earnings and cashflow cyclicality
Significant historical volatility in profits and free cash flow highlights exposure to metal prices and operational variability; this reduces predictability of dividends, capital spend and leverage metrics across 2–6 months horizons and increases the need for conservative cash management.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation & liquidity
Sustained multi‑billion free cash flow and a record cash balance (~$2.76–2.8bn) provide durable financial flexibility to fund higher 2026 CapEx, exploration, dividends and opportunistic M&A without immediate refinancing, supporting capital allocation through cycles.
Read all positive factors
FRESNILLO (FRES) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£21.90B
Dividend Yield2.05%
Average Volume (3M)1.03M
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.8
Beta (1Y)1.24
Revenue Growth24.81%
EPS Growth844.36%
CountryUK
Employees7,179
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryOther Precious Metals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.88
Shares Outstanding736,893,550
10 Day Avg. Volume886,473
30 Day Avg. Volume1,034,229
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.03
Price to Book (P/B)7.13
Price to Sales (P/S)7.17
P/FCF Ratio16.67
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£3,862.50Price Target Upside2.13% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)3.17
Revenue Forecast (FY)£6.53B
FRESNILLO Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Fresnillo plc is a Mexican mining firm primarily engaged in the exploration, development, and production of non-ferrous minerals within Mexico. The company specifically targets and processes silver, gold, lead, and zinc into concentrates. Its exte...
How the Company Makes Money
Fresnillo makes money mainly by producing and selling precious metals—primarily silver and gold—derived from its operated mines. Revenue is recognized from metal sales under offtake and trading arrangements, where produced metal (or metal-bearing ...
FRESNILLO Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call portrays a strongly positive financial and strategic position driven by record prices, exceptional cash generation, a large dividend payout and a value-accretive M&A adding significant gold resources. Management acknowledged operational and timing headwinds (notably a transitional 2026 with temporary production impacts, a metallurgical issue at Cienega, tax timing/cash pressure, and higher near-term CapEx), but presented mitigation plans, brownfield production coming online (Valles, Noche Buena) and a stepped-up exploration and development program. On balance the positive financial outcomes, balance sheet strength, resource/reserve growth and clear project pipeline outweigh near-term operational and tax timing challenges.Positive Updates
Record Financial Performance
Revenue and profitability surged in 2025: gross profit +114% YoY, operating profit +142% YoY, profit for the period ~+600% YoY, and EBITDA +81% YoY, driven primarily by higher precious metal prices.
Negative Updates
2026 Transition Year — Silver Production Pressure
Management flagged 2026 as a transition year with lower silver guidance due to staging and timing (Fresnillo not bringing in higher-grade zones this year and temporary impacts from Saucito shaft works), implying weaker near-term silver output.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Financial Performance
Revenue and profitability surged in 2025: gross profit +114% YoY, operating profit +142% YoY, profit for the period ~+600% YoY, and EBITDA +81% YoY, driven primarily by higher precious metal prices.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company said 2026 is a transition year but reiterated a clear path to higher output in 2027–28 driven by brownfield projects (Valles: 60–80k oz/year from mid‑2027; Noche Buena: 40–50k oz/year early next year) and later greenfields (Rodeo 75–90k oz/year from ~2029, Novador ~2032, Orisyvo and Guanajuato ~2033). Key financial and capital metrics: 2025 delivered record results (gross profit +$1.4bn, operating profit +142%, profit for period ~+600%, EBITDA +81%), generated ~$2.8bn cash from operations and >$2bn free cash flow, finished with ~$2.76bn cash, returned $950m to shareholders (69% of earnings), spent $175m on exploration/800k+ m drilling in 2025 and guided exploration to $308m in 2026 (35% to advanced projects). Cost and tax guidance: consolidated cost inflation was effectively flat in 2025 (0.24% deflation after FX), 2026 budgeting assumes ~6% inflation (ex‑FX), sustaining/operating CapEx ~ $765m in 2026 (vs. prior ~$500–550m run‑rate), a $3bn approximate 5‑year growth spend pipeline, and materially higher provisional cash tax payments (expect ~+$500m cash tax in March 2026); reserves/resources noted at ~2bn oz Ag and 44m oz Au (Probe Gold adds ~10m oz Au), with site‑level reserve metrics and projects (e.g., Fresnillo ~20Mt @ ~200 g/t Ag, Saucito ~17.5Mt @ >200 g/t Ag, Juanicipio ~10.3Mt @ ~200 g/t Ag) driving the outlook.FRESNILLO Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
83
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.61B | 3.50B | 2.71B | 2.43B | 2.70B |
| Gross Profit | 2.47B | 1.24B | 503.24M | 536.02M | 936.92M |
| EBITDA | 2.80B | 1.35B | 697.03M | 829.22M | 1.20B |
| Net Income | 1.41B | 140.92M | 233.91M | 271.90M | 421.21M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 7.28B | 5.88B | 5.74B | 5.91B | 5.77B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.76B | 1.30B | 534.58M | 969.06M | 1.24B |
| Total Debt | 851.28M | 853.46M | 948.95M | 1.28B | 1.28B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.21B | 1.67B | 1.67B | 2.00B | 1.96B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.63B | 3.86B | 3.77B | 3.69B | 3.62B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.98B | 929.26M | -57.49M | -89.94M | 303.09M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.39B | 1.30B | 425.92M | 502.19M | 895.14M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -26.70M | -465.46M | -369.53M | -514.18M | -501.56M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -780.50M | -248.28M | -495.83M | -254.11M | -227.32M |
FRESNILLO Technical Analysis
Negative
3782.00
Price Trends
3320.06
Negative
3452.46
Negative
3045.95
Negative
Market Momentum
-67.22
Negative
42.25
Neutral
54.14
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:FRES, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3782 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3128.10, above the 50-day MA of 3320.06, and above the 200-day MA of 3045.95, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -67.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:FRES.
FRESNILLO Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | £21.90B | 21.84 | 32.98% | 2.05% | 24.81% | 844.36% | |
63 Neutral | £232.94M | 8.70 | 14.10% | 2.58% | 70.88% | 218.79% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
45 Neutral | £462.67M | -81.83 | -25.01% | ― | ― | -157.72% | |
44 Neutral | £268.18M | -71.16 | -24.90% | ― | ― | 22.39% | |
41 Neutral | £72.31M | -50.10 | -7.12% | ― | 220.69% | -400.00% | |
38 Underperform | £21.80M | -0.25 | -186.54% | ― | -45.10% | 2.30% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
GB:FRES
FRESNILLO
2,972.00
1,573.32
112.49%
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FRESNILLO Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Fresnillo Details US$415 Million in 2025 Payments to Governments
Neutral
Jun 15, 2026
Fresnillo plc has published its 2025 report on payments to governments, detailing US$415.4 million in disbursements related to its extractive activities in Mexico and Peru, in line with UK transparency regulations. The bulk of payments, US$414.25 ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsShareholder Meetings
Fresnillo Wins Strong Shareholder Backing at 2026 AGM
Positive
May 19, 2026
Fresnillo plc said shareholders approved all 24 resolutions at its 19 May 2026 annual general meeting, including ordinary and special resolutions relating to dividends, directors’ remuneration policies and the re-election of both executive a...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Fresnillo posts record 2025 profits, boosts dividend and expands into Canada
Positive
May 19, 2026
Fresnillo reported an exceptional 2025, driven by higher precious metal prices, improved operational efficiency and cost discipline, and a supportive peso devaluation. Silver output met guidance while gold production exceeded expectations, helping...
Dividends
Fresnillo Sets Sterling Rate for 2025 Final Dividend
Positive
Apr 28, 2026
Fresnillo plc has set the sterling conversion rate for its 2025 final dividend at 1.35576 US dollars to the pound, translating the previously announced 108.12 US cents per share into 79.7486 pence per share. The final dividend will be paid on 29 M...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Fresnillo Starts 2026 on Track as Projects Advance Despite Softer Silver Output
Neutral
Apr 22, 2026
Fresnillo reported first-quarter 2026 production broadly in line with full-year guidance, though headline volumes were mixed across metals. Attributable silver output fell 8.5% quarter-on-quarter and 6.5% year-on-year to 11.1 million ounces, hit b...
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Fresnillo Publishes 2025 Annual Report and Sets Date for 2026 AGM
Neutral
Apr 17, 2026
Fresnillo plc has published its 2025 Annual Report and Accounts and the notice of its 2026 Annual General Meeting on its website, while also filing these documents with the UK’s National Storage Mechanism for public inspection. The AGM is sc...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.