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Antofagasta plc (UK) (GB) (GB:70GD)
:70GD
UK Market

Antofagasta (70GD) AI Stock Analysis

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Antofagasta

(LSE:70GD)

Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
Antofagasta demonstrates solid financial performance with strong operating margins and a stable balance sheet. The company has shown significant progress in growth projects and sustainability, as highlighted in the recent earnings call. However, the technical outlook remains neutral, and the absence of valuation metrics adds uncertainty. Challenges related to cash flow and permit renewals need to be managed carefully.

Antofagasta (70GD) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Antofagasta Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAntofagasta PLC is a Chilean-based copper mining group with significant operations in the mining sector. The company is primarily engaged in the exploration, extraction, and sale of copper, with additional interests in gold and molybdenum by-products. Antofagasta operates several large-scale mining operations in Chile, including Los Pelambres, Centinela, Antucoya, and Zaldívar, making it one of the leading copper producers globally.
How the Company Makes MoneyAntofagasta makes money primarily through the production and sale of copper, which is its core business. The company's revenue model is centered around its four key mining operations in Chile, where it extracts copper along with by-products such as gold and molybdenum. The extracted minerals are sold to industrial customers worldwide, contributing significantly to the company's revenue streams. Key factors influencing its earnings include global copper prices, production volumes, and operational efficiencies. Additionally, Antofagasta engages in hedging strategies to manage commodity price volatility, and it may enter into joint ventures or partnerships to enhance its mining capabilities and expand its market presence.

Antofagasta Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: 0.00%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 14, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong financial and operational performance, significant progress in growth projects, and exceptional safety and sustainability achievements. However, challenges persist with permit renewals and temporary operational disruptions.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Safety Performance
2024 was a fatality-free year with a record performance in safety indicators, including a 40% reduction in high-potential incidents.
Strong Financial Results
Revenue and EBITDA grew by 5% and 11%, respectively, with margins increasing by 300 basis points to 52%. A proposed final dividend equates to 50% of net earnings.
Progress in Growth Projects
Significant progress in Centinela Second Concentrator and Los Pelambres projects, with over 8,000 contractors mobilized for Centinela. Centinela ore reserves grew by 35%.
Sustainability Achievements
Record achievements in sustainability, including approaching 30% female workforce representation and targets for decarbonization and water resource management.
Negative Updates
Zaldívar Permit Challenges
Pending permit renewal for Zaldívar with a May deadline, requiring regulatory submission of a temporary closure plan.
Temporary Drop in Shipments
EBITDA growth was partially offset by a temporary drop in shipments due to bad weather, rescheduling sales into 2025.
Centinela Mine Development Issues
Midyear challenges at Centinela with reliance on stockpiles due to mine development delays, affecting concentrator performance.
Company Guidance
In the call, Antofagasta's leadership provided a comprehensive overview of the company's financial and operational performance for 2024 and outlined their strategic outlook. The company reported revenue and EBITDA growth of 5% and 11%, respectively, with margins increasing by 300 basis points to 52%. The proposed final dividend equates to 50% of net earnings. Safety performance was highlighted with a record fatality-free year and a 40% reduction in high-potential incidents. The company emphasized its focus on copper, discussing the anticipated rising demand due to trends in electrification and new technologies like AI, contrasted with a challenging supply environment. The financial strategy included $6 billion in committed financing for growth projects and a 20-year financing plan for water infrastructure at Los Pelambres. Sustainability remained a focal point, with targets set for female representation and decarbonization. The call also addressed the progress of major projects such as the Centinela Second Concentrator and the Los Pelambres expansion, which are crucial to achieving a mid-term production outlook close to 900,000 tonnes of copper.

Antofagasta Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Antofagasta exhibits solid financial performance with strong operating margins and a stable balance sheet. Revenue growth is steady, although profitability margins show room for improvement. The company maintains a balanced financial structure but faces challenges in free cash flow due to high capital expenditures. Overall, Antofagasta is positioned well, but careful management of cash flows and leverage is crucial for sustaining growth.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Antofagasta's income statement shows a strong gross profit margin of approximately 37.9% for 2024, reflecting efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is moderate at 12.5%, indicating room for improvement in profitability. Revenue growth from 2023 to 2024 is 4.6%, demonstrating steady growth, though slower compared to previous years. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 30.4% and 60.0% respectively, highlighting significant operating efficiency.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
The balance sheet of Antofagasta reveals a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.57, showing a moderate level of leverage. Return on equity (ROE) is 8.8%, indicating moderate profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 41.8%, suggesting a stable financial structure with a good proportion of assets financed by equity. However, there is a moderate level of debt that presents potential risk in fluctuating market conditions.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
Antofagasta's cash flow statement indicates negative free cash flow for 2024, reflecting significant capital expenditures, which could be a concern. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, signifying good cash conversion efficiency. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative due to high capital expenditures, suggesting potential liquidity challenges if not managed carefully.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue6.32B6.61B6.32B5.86B7.47B5.13B
Gross Profit2.66B2.50B2.66B2.43B4.17B2.27B
EBITDA2.89B3.97B3.30B2.85B4.63B2.56B
Net Income835.10M829.40M835.10M1.53B2.23B886.60M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets19.65B22.63B19.65B18.24B17.28B16.60B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.38B4.32B3.38B2.39B3.71B3.67B
Total Debt4.08B5.35B4.08B3.27B3.17B3.75B
Total Liabilities7.60B9.68B7.60B6.59B6.25B6.52B
Stockholders Equity8.95B9.46B8.95B8.63B8.35B7.75B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow203.80M-129.30M203.80M-2.30M1.89B751.30M
Operating Cash Flow2.33B2.29B2.33B1.88B3.67B2.06B
Investing Cash Flow-2.09B-2.08B-2.09B-477.50M-2.20B-2.19B
Financing Cash Flow-402.00M1.35B-402.00M-1.33B-1.95B717.10M

Antofagasta Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$10.62B96.263.70%1.39%25.76%-41.10%
77
Outperform
£279.71M7.1113.74%6.28%6.77%32.64%
74
Outperform
£650.31M12.8511.38%0.97%17.22%97.69%
70
Neutral
£36.38B-3.81%1.82%3.11%-137.83%
66
Neutral
£18.89B
7.09%
GBAAL
61
Neutral
$24.43B-13.39%0.01%-13.16%-1091.44%
57
Neutral
£2.72B4.85-9.97%3.91%-1.19%-6.71%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:70GD
Antofagasta
70.50
0.00
0.00%
GB:FRES
FRESNILLO
1,460.00
900.34
160.87%
GB:AAL
Anglo American
2,244.00
-105.92
-4.51%
GB:GLEN
Glencore
306.20
-163.61
-34.82%
GB:ATYM
Atalaya Mining
463.00
24.13
5.50%
GB:CAML
Central Asia Metals
164.00
-18.88
-10.32%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Apr 06, 2025