Golden Agri-Resources (GARPY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.08B
• Dividend Yield: 2.78%
• Average Volume (3M): 0.00
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.14
• Revenue Growth: 19.13%
• EPS Growth: 260.19%
• Country: US
• Employees: 100,100
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Agricultural Farm Products
• EPS (TTM): 1.87
• Shares Outstanding: 128,375,490
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 0
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 0
• PEG Ratio: -0.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.49
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.21
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.61
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.89
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.49
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.90
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.97
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $24.00 ▲(6.34% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/09/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/09/26

The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance: solid revenue recovery and a stable balance sheet are offset by volatile profitability and uneven cash flows. Valuation is a key positive (low P/E and moderate yield), while technicals are neutral-to-weak due to near-term softness and mixed momentum indicators.

Positive Factors

Vertical integration

GAR's vertically integrated model from plantations through refining and branded downstream provides enduring competitive advantages: margin capture across the value chain, operational control over input quality and costs, and diversified revenue streams that reduce dependence on any single segment over the medium term.

Revenue recovery

Sustained top-line recovery into 2025 signals restored demand or improved operational throughput. Stronger revenue enhances scale benefits, supports utilization of mills/refineries and provides a foundation for more consistent cash generation and reinvestment over the next several quarters if commodity conditions remain supportive.

Balance sheet resilience

A reasonably stable balance sheet with equity exceeding debt and steady asset base gives GAR financial resilience through commodity cycles. Moderate leverage and gradual equity growth support access to funding for maintenance capex and working capital without immediate distress in typical downcycles.

Negative Factors

Volatile profitability

Significant swings in net income and materially lower margins versus peak levels indicate earnings are exposed to commodity price swings and cost pressures. This volatility undermines predictable cash flow, complicates capital allocation and dividend planning, and raises execution risk across cycles.

Uneven cash generation

Large swings in operating cash flow point to working-capital sensitivity and cycle-driven cash volatility. Such unpredictability strains short-term liquidity management, can force reactive financing or asset sales in weak years, and makes sustained investment or deleveraging plans harder to execute reliably.

Material leverage risk

While current leverage is moderate, it is material for a cyclical agricultural business. During commodity downturns this level of debt can restrict flexibility, increase interest burden and refinancing risk, and limit capacity to invest in yield-improving projects or weather prolonged pricing weakness.

Golden Agri-Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Golden Agri-Resources Ltd, an investment holding company, operates as an integrated palm oil plantation company in Europe, China, India, Pakistan, the Middle east, and the United States. It operates in two segments, Plantation and Palm Oil Mills; and Palm, Laurics and Others. The company offers bulk products, such as crude palm oil, palm kernel, palm kernel oil, palm kernel meal, olein, stearin, soybean oil, and soybean meal; oleo chemicals; palm oil based bio-diesel and other renewable resources based energy; and refined products, including cooking oil, margarine, shortening, butter oil substitute, and fats. It also produces processed food products, such as instant noodles, as well as snack products and beverages. The company manages oil palm estates with a total area of 536,013 hectares in Indonesia. In addition, it offers treasury management, building management, business and management consultancy, telecommunication and multimedia, commercial and industrial real estate management, digital analytics; aerial manuring, construction, training, ship management, chartering, and technology product services. Further, the company provides IT consultancy, IT application design, development, and maintenance services; facilities for data center resources and other IT outsourced activities; and port loading, storage, packaging, and transportation service. Additionally, it engages in importing, marketing, and distributing palm oil products; cultivation of ornamental plants; wholesale trade; property investment activities; production and distribution of bottled ionised mineral water and fatty alcohol, acid, derivatives, and other chemical; shipping and logistics; vessels operation; office administration and dormant services; refinery operation; and sale of food and beverage products. The company was incorporated in 1996 and is based in Singapore.

How the Company Makes Money

Golden Agri-Resources generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude palm oil (CPO) and palm oil products, which are sold to various industries including food manufacturing, cosmetics, and biofuels. The company's revenue model relies on its extensive plantation assets and processing facilities, which enable it to produce palm oil at scale. Key revenue streams include the direct sale of palm oil, palm kernel oil, and related products, as well as by-products such as biomass. Additionally, GARPY engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations that enhance its supply chain efficiency and market reach, contributing to its overall earnings. Factors such as global palm oil demand, commodity price fluctuations, and sustainability initiatives also play significant roles in shaping the company’s financial performance.

Golden Agri-Resources Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue has recovered strongly into 2025, and the balance sheet appears reasonably stable with moderate leverage. However, profitability has been volatile since 2022 and cash generation has been uneven (notably the negative operating cash flow in 2024), which limits the financial quality score despite the 2025 rebound.

Income Statement

Revenue has recovered well after the 2023 decline, reaching $13.0B in 2025 (+8.7% YoY after +11.8% in 2024). Profitability, however, has been volatile: net income fell from $782M (2022) to $198M (2023) and only partially rebounded to $400M (2025). Margins appear meaningfully lower than the strong 2022 level, suggesting a more challenging pricing/cost environment and less consistent earnings power.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks reasonably stable with equity of ~$5.4B (2025) against total debt of ~$3.25B, implying moderate leverage (debt-to-equity was ~0.60–0.74 in 2020–2024). Total assets have been steady around ~$9.1B–$10.7B while equity has gradually grown, which supports resilience. The main watch item is leverage remaining material for a cyclical agricultural business, limiting flexibility if profits weaken again.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is uneven. Operating cash flow swung from positive $555M (2023) to negative -$81M (2024), then rebounded strongly to $1.17B (2025), with free cash flow similarly improving to $738M in 2025 after -$410M in 2024. The sharp 2024 dip highlights working-capital or cycle-driven volatility, while the 2025 recovery is a clear positive but needs to prove repeatable.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	11.92B	12.95B	10.91B	9.76B	11.44B	10.18B
Gross Profit	2.00B	1.90B	2.05B	1.83B	3.03B	2.35B
EBITDA	1.17B	1.26B	1.15B	952.70M	1.74B	1.22B
Net Income	422.81M	400.20M	364.55M	197.60M	782.10M	476.18M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.67B	10.67B	10.69B	9.72B	9.90B	9.61B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.05B	1.14B	999.83M	1.14B	1.15B	666.02M
Total Debt	3.37B	3.25B	3.71B	3.06B	2.98B	3.00B
Total Liabilities	5.16B	4.94B	5.32B	4.54B	4.65B	4.72B
Stockholders Equity	5.22B	5.42B	5.10B	4.93B	5.00B	4.68B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	449.73M	738.19M	-410.47M	238.22M	885.48M	357.68M
Operating Cash Flow	632.13M	1.17B	-80.91M	554.54M	1.09B	564.79M
Investing Cash Flow	-167.70M	-543.98M	-626.21M	-604.61M	-705.86M	-196.19M
Financing Cash Flow	-468.41M	-539.17M	680.07M	-175.97M	-292.87M	-282.66M

Golden Agri-Resources Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 22.57
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GARPY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.57 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.17, below the 50-day MA of 22.85, and above the 200-day MA of 21.59, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.34 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.75 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GARPY.

Golden Agri-Resources Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SFD	77 Outperform	$9.08B	9.27	―	4.44%	―	―
FDP	70 Outperform	$1.91B	18.92	4.53%	3.34%	1.11%	414.23%
ADM	66 Neutral	$33.03B	25.81	4.80%	3.55%	-4.31%	-29.96%
BG	64 Neutral	$23.62B	18.12	5.98%	3.14%	10.29%	17.32%
GARPY	63 Neutral	$3.08B	6.65	9.59%	2.78%	19.13%	260.19%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
AGRO	53 Neutral	$2.07B	-484.91	-0.54%	4.40%	-7.37%	-84.53%