FTAI Aviation (FTAI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $24.49B
• Dividend Yield: 0.73%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.09M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 56.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.05
• Revenue Growth: 50.37%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 580
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Rental & Leasing Services
• EPS (TTM): 1.10
• Shares Outstanding: 102,572,920
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,881,026
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,093,059
• PEG Ratio: -14.64
• Price to Book (P/B): 179.75
• Price to Sales (P/S): 8.36
• P/FCF Ratio: -10.88
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.83
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 8.62
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 27.45
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 19.09
• 1Y Price Target: $236.83
• Price Target Upside: -0.82% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $211.00 ▼(-11.64% Downside)

The score is held back primarily by leverage and weak TTM cash flow quality despite strong reported margins, while the earnings call provided upbeat growth and cash-flow guidance (and a dividend increase). Technically, the uptrend is strong but looks overextended, and valuation is a secondary headwind due to the high P/E and low yield.

Positive Factors

Aerospace Products Margin Expansion

Sustained high margins and rapid YoY EBITDA growth in aftermarket engines/modules indicate a scalable, higher‑value business line. Durable demand for MRO and refurbished engine modules supports recurring cash flow, margin resilience, and diversification away from cyclical lease revenues.

Strategic Capital Initiative (SCI) Upsize

A materially larger committed equity base expands deployment capacity and accelerates fleet growth without immediate reliance on market equity issuance. The SCI structure and co‑investment align incentives, supporting durable scale advantages in sourcing, placement, and financing of aircraft assets.

Improved FCF Guidance & Dividend

Upgraded EBITDA and free cash flow targets alongside a dividend increase reflect management confidence in sustainable cash generation. If achieved, this strengthens internal funding for growth, reduces incremental external financing needs, and signals disciplined capital allocation continuity.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

Elevated leverage materially raises refinancing, interest‑rate and solvency risk in a cyclical aviation sector. High debt limits strategic flexibility, constrains ability to absorb downturns, and increases vulnerability to higher rates or weaker cash conversion despite reported margin improvements.

Weak Cash Flow Quality

Negative operating and free cash flows and reliance on non‑operational sources undermine the firm's capacity to sustain capex, service debt, or consistently return capital. This structural cash quality weakness elevates dependency on asset sales or external capital to fund growth and liabilities.

Leasing Segment Weakness

A decline in core leasing EBITDA and reliance on seed portfolio sales reduce recurring, predictable lease income. If leasing fundamentals remain pressured, the company's revenue stability and earnings quality could be impaired long term, increasing reliance on non‑leasing segments.

FTAI Aviation Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

FTAI Aviation Ltd. owns and acquires aviation and offshore energy equipment for the transportation of goods and people worldwide. It operates through two segments, Aviation Leasing and Aerospace Products. The Aviation Leasing segment owns and manages aviation assets, including aircraft and aircraft engines, which it leases and sells to customers. As of December 31, 2023, this segment owned and managed 363 aviation assets consisting of 96 commercial aircraft and 267 engines, including eight aircraft and seventeen engines that were located in Russia. The Aerospace Products segment develops, manufactures, repairs, and sells aircraft engines and aftermarket components for aircraft engines. The company was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

FTAI generates revenue primarily through its aircraft leasing operations, where it leases commercial aircraft to airlines and other operators, earning income from lease payments. Additionally, the company capitalizes on its maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) services, which provide essential support and maintenance for a variety of aircraft, thus contributing to its revenue streams. Key partnerships with airlines and operators enhance FTAI's market position and provide a steady flow of contracts and agreements. Furthermore, the sale of aircraft parts and components plays a significant role in the company's financial performance, as it caters to the ongoing needs of the aviation sector. Overall, FTAI's diversified revenue model, combined with strategic partnerships and strong market demand, contributes to its earnings.

FTAI Aviation Financial Statement Overview

Summary

FTAI Aviation shows strong revenue growth and profitability with healthy margins. However, the high debt-to-equity ratio and negative cash flows indicate financial instability and reliance on non-operational cash sources.

Income Statement

FTAI Aviation shows strong revenue growth with a TTM increase of 9.17%. The company maintains healthy margins, with a gross profit margin of 40.93% and a net profit margin of 20.13% in the TTM. However, the net profit margin has fluctuated significantly over the years, indicating potential volatility in profitability.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio, peaking at 115.25 in 2022, which poses a financial risk. Although the return on equity improved to 3.58% in the TTM, the overall equity ratio remains low, suggesting limited financial stability.

Cash Flow

FTAI's cash flow situation is concerning, with negative operating and free cash flows in the TTM. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 2.79, indicating reliance on non-operational sources for cash. Despite some growth in free cash flow, the overall cash flow health is weak.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.35B	1.75B	1.19B	722.32M	335.58M	370.24M
Gross Profit	738.86M	577.88M	395.31M	222.72M	126.80M	84.58M
EBITDA	1.06B	469.55M	530.66M	230.71M	263.02M	163.43M
Net Income	487.95M	8.68M	243.82M	-193.21M	-104.23M	-88.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.24B	4.04B	2.97B	2.45B	4.88B	3.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	509.94M	115.12M	90.91M	53.06M	138.21M	161.42M
Total Debt	3.45B	3.44B	2.52B	2.18B	2.50B	1.97B
Total Liabilities	3.99B	3.96B	2.80B	2.43B	3.76B	2.29B
Stockholders Equity	252.46M	81.37M	175.35M	18.88M	1.12B	1.08B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-1.22B	-1.34B	-647.91M	-834.31M	-789.67M	-531.67M
Operating Cash Flow	-173.47M	-187.96M	128.98M	-20.66M	-22.04M	63.11M
Investing Cash Flow	695.90M	-469.50M	-373.35M	-411.25M	-1.29B	-509.12M
Financing Cash Flow	-124.38M	681.81M	282.21M	44.91M	1.59B	364.92M

FTAI Aviation Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 238.80
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FTAI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 238.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 189.47, above the 50-day MA of 175.61, and above the 200-day MA of 142.93, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 16.82 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 82.29 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.76 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FTAI.

FTAI Aviation Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AER	77 Outperform	$25.98B	6.68	21.71%	0.74%	2.90%	67.73%
GATX	75 Outperform	$6.35B	20.56	11.93%	1.41%	10.66%	13.61%
WLFC	74 Outperform	$1.01B	9.32	18.91%	0.82%	27.90%	19.25%
AL	73 Outperform	$7.18B	7.45	12.74%	1.37%	9.67%	96.43%
R	73 Outperform	$7.67B	16.24	16.26%	1.75%	1.68%	9.91%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
FTAI	63 Neutral	$24.49B	56.20	263.05%	0.73%	50.37%	―