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FTAI Aviation
(NASDAQ:FTAI)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$207.00
▼(-4.16% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/30/26
The score reflects a split profile: very strong earnings-call outlook (reaffirmed 2026 targets, production ramp, liquidity improvements and dividend increase) is tempered by weaker underlying financial quality (high leverage and deeply negative recent operating/free cash flow) and a bearish technical trend (below key moving averages), with valuation also appearing demanding (high P/E and low yield).
Positive Factors
Revenue & Margin Expansion
Sustained multi-year revenue scaling with high gross and EBITDA margins indicates durable unit economics in both leasing and aftermarket services. Reliable margin structure supports reinvestment into capacity, SPVs and product development, underpinning longer-term cash generation if operational execution holds.
Negative Factors
High Leverage & Thin Equity
Despite recent deleveraging, the capital structure remains heavily indebted relative to equity, leaving limited cushion against asset-value or cash-flow shocks. High leverage amplifies downside risk, constrains strategic flexibility and increases sensitivity to covenant and market funding conditions over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue & Margin Expansion
Sustained multi-year revenue scaling with high gross and EBITDA margins indicates durable unit economics in both leasing and aftermarket services. Reliable margin structure supports reinvestment into capacity, SPVs and product development, underpinning longer-term cash generation if operational execution holds.
Read all positive factors
FTAI Aviation Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue By Segment
Breaks down revenue by business segments, revealing which areas are driving growth and contributing most to the company's overall performance.
Breaks down revenue by business segments, revealing which areas are driving growth and contributing most to the company's overall performance.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyFTAI Aviation (FTAI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$20.26B
Dividend Yield0.73%
Average Volume (3M)1.18M
Price to Earnings (P/E)44.2
Beta (1Y)1.21
Revenue Growth44.51%
EPS Growth14.62%
CountryUS
Employees985
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.66
Shares Outstanding102,582,970
10 Day Avg. Volume1,378,090
30 Day Avg. Volume1,183,423
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.03
Price to Book (P/B)60.42
Price to Sales (P/S)8.05
P/FCF Ratio-18.99
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$347.50Price Target Upside60.89% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)6.56
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.75B
FTAI Aviation Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
FTAI Aviation Ltd. is a company dedicated to the ownership and acquisition of critical equipment for the aviation and offshore energy industries, thereby supporting the worldwide movement of goods and people. The company operates through two prima...
How the Company Makes Money
FTAI Aviation generates revenue primarily from (1) leasing aviation assets and (2) selling aviation aftermarket products and services. On the leasing side, the company earns contractual payments from customers that lease its owned assets (commonly...
FTAI Aviation Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial momentum: accelerating aerospace revenue and EBITDA, a substantial production ramp, robust strategic capital vehicle activity, improving liquidity and leverage, and encouraging commercial progress for the Power platform (prototype milestones, JV with Jereh, and strong customer interest). Lowlights were mostly execution- and timing-related (startup costs for Power, outstanding PMA part approvals, production mix variability) and macro/geopolitical uncertainty that could cause near-term volatility. Overall, the positives — including reaffirmed 2026 guidance, dividend increase, and substantive growth indicators — significantly outweigh the contained lowlights.Positive Updates
Strong Consolidated EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA of $325.6M in Q1 2026, a 17% increase vs. $277.2M in Q4 2025. Segment contributions: Aerospace Products ~$222.6M, Aviation Leasing ~$153M, partially offset by Corporate & Other (−$50M).
Negative Updates
Geopolitical Risk and Potential Volatility
Conflict in the Middle East (beginning end of February) creates uncertainty: while direct exposure is limited (<3% of current-gen narrow-body fleet based in region), elevated fuel prices can strain airline liquidity, potentially increasing volatility in demand and creating shifting customer priorities.
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Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Consolidated EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA of $325.6M in Q1 2026, a 17% increase vs. $277.2M in Q4 2025. Segment contributions: Aerospace Products ~$222.6M, Aviation Leasing ~$153M, partially offset by Corporate & Other (−$50M).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
FTAI reaffirmed 2026 guidance of $1.625 billion in total business segment EBITDA (split $1.05 billion aerospace products, $575 million aviation leasing) and about $915 million of adjusted free cash flow while targeting production of 1,050 CFM56 modules for the year. Q1 results included $325.6 million of adjusted EBITDA (Aerospace $222.6M, Aviation Leasing ~$153M, Corporate & Other -$50M), Aerospace revenue growth of +104% YoY and +32% QoQ, 270 CFM56 modules refurbished in Q1 (+96% YoY) with Aerospace Q1 EBITDA up ~70% YoY to ~$223M at a 30% margin, and Aviation Leasing EBITDA that included $45M of insurance recoveries (additional ~$5M expected in 2026), $12M gains on sale and $25M of 2025 SPV management/co-investment returns. Strategic capital milestones: the 2025 SPV has closed 165 aircraft and is expected to be fully invested by end‑Q2 and shift to harvest/distributions (warehouse facility upsized to $3.5B, +$1B across 10 lenders); the 2026 SPV targets a first close end‑Q2 with acquisitions starting in Q3 and a 12–15 month deployment. Liquidity and balance‑sheet moves include reducing leverage to ~2.3x (below the 2.5–3x target range), upsizing the public revolver from $400M to $2.025B (maturity extended to 2031, 15 lenders), Q1 adjusted free cash flow of $158M (or ~$333M excluding ~$175M of growth investments: $75M CFM56 prepayments, $81M V2500 prepayments, $19M Power inventory), $127.5M of asset sale proceeds YTD (9% gain, $12.1M), a dividend increase from $0.40 to $0.45 per share per quarter (payable May 26, record May 13), and a Power program on track for commercial launch in Q4 2026 with prototype testing ahead of schedule, final testing expected in Q3, a targeted 100‑unit 2027 run (mostly sold out) and meaningful 2028 commitments.FTAI Aviation Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.11B | 2.51B | 1.75B | 1.19B | 722.32M | 335.58M |
| Gross Profit | 1.06B | 779.35M | 577.88M | 395.31M | 222.72M | 126.80M |
| EBITDA | 1.05B | 1.08B | 469.55M | 530.66M | 230.71M | 263.02M |
| Net Income | 496.27M | 501.06M | 8.68M | 243.82M | -193.21M | -104.23M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.49B | 4.37B | 4.04B | 2.97B | 2.45B | 4.88B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 337.19M | 300.48M | 115.12M | 90.91M | 53.06M | 138.21M |
| Total Debt | 3.45B | 3.45B | 3.44B | 2.52B | 2.18B | 2.50B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.09B | 4.04B | 3.96B | 2.80B | 2.43B | 3.76B |
| Stockholders Equity | 403.99M | 334.17M | 81.37M | 175.35M | 18.88M | 1.12B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.23B | -1.06B | -1.34B | -647.91M | -834.31M | -789.67M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -439.76M | -310.75M | -187.96M | 128.98M | -20.66M | -22.04M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 742.88M | 723.31M | -469.50M | -373.35M | -411.25M | -1.29B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -54.14M | -227.21M | 681.81M | 282.21M | 44.91M | 1.59B |
FTAI Aviation Technical Analysis
Negative
215.98
Price Trends
238.04
Negative
242.21
Negative
229.04
Negative
Market Momentum
-10.46
Positive
43.66
Neutral
63.39
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FTAI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 215.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 213.72, below the 50-day MA of 238.04, and below the 200-day MA of 229.04, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -10.46 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FTAI.
FTAI Aviation Risk Analysis
FTAI Aviation disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. FTAI Aviation reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
FTAI Aviation Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $41.21B | 62.96 | 17.82% | 0.04% | 18.80% | 30.84% | |
70 Neutral | $69.91B | 39.15 | -24.26% | ― | 13.26% | 8.24% | |
69 Neutral | $14.98B | 16.09 | 11.93% | 0.08% | 8.80% | 19.82% | |
66 Neutral | $9.64B | 32.57 | 11.26% | ― | 15.02% | 319.25% | |
64 Neutral | $5.56B | 28.70 | 12.19% | ― | 18.97% | 1317.49% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
60 Neutral | $20.26B | 44.21 | 163.97% | 0.69% | 44.51% | 14.62% |
* Industrials Sector Average
FTAI
FTAI Aviation
206.00
69.73
51.17%
AIR
AAR
140.04
67.05
91.86%
HEI
HEICO
356.36
31.51
9.70%
TXT
Textron
85.26
8.10
10.50%
TDG
Transdigm Group
1,254.38
-228.64
-15.42%
SARO
StandardAero, Inc.
29.31
1.45
5.20%
FTAI Aviation Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
FTAI Aviation Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 29, 2026
At its Annual General Meeting held on May 28, 2026, FTAI Aviation shareholders elected three Class I directors – Joseph P. Adams Jr., Judith A. Hannaway and Martin Tuchman – to serve until the 2029 meeting, reinforcing continuity on th...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
FTAI Aviation Expands and Extends Revolving Credit Facility
Positive
Apr 30, 2026
On April 24, 2026, FTAI Aviation upsized and refinanced its revolving credit facility, entering a new credit agreement that increases total commitments from $400 million to $2.025 billion and extends the maturity to April 24, 2031. The facility, l...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.