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Aercap Holdings
(NYSE:AER)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$164.00
â–²(8.39% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/30/26
The score is driven by attractive valuation (low P/E) and a strong, upbeat earnings update (raised EPS guidance, strong cash generation, and significant buybacks). Offsetting these positives, financial risk remains elevated due to structurally high leverage and recent negative free cash flow/earnings volatility, while technicals are generally supportive over the longer term but show mild near-term softness.
Positive Factors
Scale & Fleet Position
Aercap's scale and focused widebody order book (large 787 position) create durable competitive advantages in leasing premium long‑haul aircraft. Scale supports pricing power, lower unit costs, deeper airline relationships and preferential access to new delivery slots over the next multi-year replacement cycle.
Negative Factors
Structural Leverage
High, structural leverage amplifies downside in aviation cycles and interest rate shocks. Even with some deleveraging, elevated debt-to-equity limits flexibility, raises fixed interest costs and increases sensitivity to aircraft value declines or airline credit deterioration over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Scale & Fleet Position
Aercap's scale and focused widebody order book (large 787 position) create durable competitive advantages in leasing premium long‑haul aircraft. Scale supports pricing power, lower unit costs, deeper airline relationships and preferential access to new delivery slots over the next multi-year replacement cycle.
Read all positive factors
Aercap Holdings (AER) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$23.79B
Dividend Yield0.89%
Average Volume (3M)1.05M
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.3
Beta (1Y)0.82
Revenue Growth1.88%
EPS Growth25.12%
CountryUS
Employees668
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRental & Leasing Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)20.66
Shares Outstanding157,685,100
10 Day Avg. Volume836,651
30 Day Avg. Volume1,049,153
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.07
Price to Book (P/B)1.35
Price to Sales (P/S)3.02
P/FCF Ratio-36.34
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$177.89Price Target Upside17.57% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)18.3
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.54B
Aercap Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AerCap Holdings N.V., a company founded in 1995 and based in Dublin, Ireland, operates extensively in the global aviation industry. The firm specializes in the acquisition, leasing, funding, sale, and general management of commercial aircraft and ...
How the Company Makes Money
AerCap primarily makes money by acquiring aircraft (and related aviation assets such as engines and helicopters) and leasing them to airline customers under multi-year lease contracts. Its core revenue stream is lease rental income, which is typic...
Aercap Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a clearly positive operational and financial message: strong Q2 earnings (adjusted EPS $5.14), robust operating cash flow ($1.5B), substantial liquidity (~$22B), aggressive shareholder returns (>$1.4B repurchased H1), high-quality asset sales (20% gain margin) and an increased full-year EPS outlook to $16.80. Management also emphasized strategic positioning (large 787 order book, 131 aircraft added YTD) and resilient leasing metrics (85% lease extension rate, improving yields/spreads). Key negatives were largely macro and timing risks — higher airline input costs, regional traffic moderation, normalization of elevated maintenance contribution, uncertainty and capital intensity related to aeroderivative opportunities, and the deliberate pace of re-leveraging — but these do not outweigh the operational and financial strength presented.Positive Updates
Strong Adjusted Earnings and ROE
Adjusted EPS of $5.14 in Q2 2026 (adjusted net income $811M), GAAP net income $726M ($4.59/share), and an adjusted return on equity of 18% for the quarter.
Negative Updates
Airline Margin Pressure and Macro/Regional Weakness
Management highlighted geopolitical challenges and higher input costs (fuel) that could pressure airline margins; global traffic growth has moderated with weakness in Middle East, Asia Pacific and North America.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Adjusted Earnings and ROE
Adjusted EPS of $5.14 in Q2 2026 (adjusted net income $811M), GAAP net income $726M ($4.59/share), and an adjusted return on equity of 18% for the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
AerCap raised full‑year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $16.80 per share (up from prior $14.50), with EPS excluding gains‑on‑sale estimated at about $14 and the company already including $2.80 per share of gains‑on‑sale from the first half (no H2 gains assumed); management expects full‑year asset sales of $4–5 billion (H1 sales $2.8 billion) and reported Q2 gain‑on‑sale of $223 million (20% unlevered margin, ~1.7x book value) with ~$400 million held‑for‑sale at June 30. The raise is supported by strong cash generation and portfolio performance—Q2 operating cash flow $1.5 billion, Q2 adjusted EPS $5.14 (adjusted ROE 18%), GAAP net income $726 million ($4.59/sh)—and a robust balance sheet (total liquidity ≈ $22 billion including ~$1.7 billion cash, $10 billion revolvers and $3 billion committed facilities; excess capital ≈ $3.5 billion; sources‑to‑uses coverage 1.9x; leverage 2.05x; secured debt/total assets 9%; average cost of debt 4.2%) while continuing buybacks ($691 million in Q2, >$1.4 billion H1) and adding 131 aircraft to the order book including 15 Boeing 787s (deliveries 2030–2033).Aercap Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
76
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
49
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 8.30B | 8.19B | 8.00B | 7.58B | 7.01B | 4.59B |
| Gross Profit | 4.97B | 4.89B | 4.61B | 4.34B | 3.80B | 2.53B |
| EBITDA | 7.54B | 8.72B | 4.52B | 5.34B | 3.18B | 4.14B |
| Net Income | 3.39B | 3.75B | 2.10B | 3.14B | -726.04M | 1.00B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 71.18B | 71.67B | 71.44B | 71.27B | 69.73B | 74.57B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.80B | 1.48B | 1.21B | 1.63B | 1.60B | 1.73B |
| Total Debt | 42.77B | 43.57B | 45.35B | 46.58B | 46.67B | 50.55B |
| Total Liabilities | 52.77B | 53.35B | 54.26B | 54.69B | 53.53B | 57.92B |
| Stockholders Equity | 18.41B | 18.32B | 17.18B | 16.59B | 16.12B | 16.57B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -307.27M | -681.17M | -1.18B | -970.95M | 1.30B | 1.90B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.62B | 5.39B | 5.44B | 5.26B | 5.17B | 3.69B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -789.51M | -1.66B | -3.72B | -3.18B | -2.16B | -23.46B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.88B | -3.65B | -2.13B | -2.01B | -3.16B | 20.18B |
Aercap Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
151.30
Price Trends
145.76
Positive
142.96
Positive
140.97
Positive
Market Momentum
2.12
Negative
59.63
Neutral
73.84
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AER, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 151.3 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 150.55, above the 50-day MA of 145.76, and above the 200-day MA of 140.97, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AER.
Aercap Holdings Risk Analysis
Aercap Holdings disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Aercap Holdings reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Aercap Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
AER
Aercap Holdings
155.13
47.38
43.98%
WLFC
Willis Lease Finance
65.21
15.84
32.09%
Aercap Holdings Corporate Events
AerCap Files Q2 2026 Interim Results and Declares $0.40 Quarterly Dividend
Jul 29, 2026
On July 29, 2026, AerCap furnished its interim financial report and related press release for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, providing updated unaudited balance sheets, income statements, cash flow data and equity movements. The filing, made on ...
AerCap Raises $900 Million via 4.875% Senior Notes Due 2031
Jul 7, 2026
On July 7, 2026, AerCap Funding Designated Activity Company, a wholly owned subsidiary of AerCap Holdings N.V., issued $900 million of 4.875% Senior Notes due 2031, fully and unconditionally guaranteed on a senior unsecured basis by AerCap and cer...
AerCap Prices $900 Million Senior Notes Due 2031 to Fund Fleet Investments and Debt Repayment
Jun 29, 2026
On June 29, 2026, AerCap Funding Designated Activity Company, a wholly owned subsidiary of AerCap Holdings, priced a $900 million offering of 4.875% senior notes due 2031, which will be fully and unconditionally guaranteed on a senior unsecured ba...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.