Aercap Holdings (AER) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $24.94B
• Dividend Yield: 0.74%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.16M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.78
• Revenue Growth: 2.90%
• EPS Growth: 67.73%
• Country: US
• Employees: 698
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Rental & Leasing Services
• EPS (TTM): 3.95
• Shares Outstanding: 166,876,540
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,131,677
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,157,760
• PEG Ratio: 0.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.35
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.02
• P/FCF Ratio: -36.34
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.71
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 8.42
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 16.04
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.22
• 1Y Price Target: $161.67
• Price Target Upside: 8.18% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 15.41
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $8.26B

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $169.00 ▲(13.09% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/08/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/08/26

The score is driven primarily by strong underlying profitability and a low P/E, offset by high leverage and negative free cash flow in recent years. Near-term technicals are soft and 2026 guidance points to lower earnings versus 2025, which further caps the overall rating.

Positive Factors

Market Position & Lease Durability

AerCap's scale and high lease-extension rate create durable revenue visibility and lower re-leasing risk. A large, diversified customer base and frequent transactions smooth idiosyncratic airline shocks, supporting steady cashflows and bargaining power when negotiating leases and asset dispositions.

High Profitability & Returns

Sustained high margins and strong ROE reflect structural pricing power in leasing and effective asset management. Durable profitability enhances internal capital generation and book value growth, enabling reinvestment in newer, in-demand aircraft and supporting long-term shareholder returns despite cyclical swings.

Operating Cash Flow & Investment Capacity

Consistently strong operating cash flow funds fleet growth and substantial CapEx without sole reliance on equity issuance. This cash generation underpins strategic investments (engines, cargo, helicopters), supports disciplined buybacks/dividends, and provides a buffer for funding cycles and OEM delivery timing over the medium term.

Negative Factors

High Absolute Leverage

AerCap's large debt stock amplifies downside in weaker aviation cycles and limits balance sheet flexibility. Even with improved ratios, high absolute debt requires steady asset sales or market access to refinance maturities, raising refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity risks over the coming months.

Negative Free Cash Flow Recently

Persistent negative free cash flow despite positive operating cash flow shows heavy reinvestment, capex timing or working-capital swings. This reduces cash available for debt paydown and shareholder returns, making capital allocation and deleveraging more dependent on asset-sale timing and external funding.

Earnings Volatility & One-off Dependence

Management's exclusion of sizable 2025 gains-on-sale and recoveries highlights reliance on non-recurring items for peak results. That dependence plus maintenance timing and Spirit restructuring risk increases earnings volatility and reduces forward visibility for core leasing profitability over the medium term.

Aercap Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AerCap Holdings N.V. engages in the lease, financing, sale, and management of commercial flight equipment in China, Hong Kong, Macau, the United States, Ireland, and internationally. The company offers aircraft asset management services, such as remarketing aircraft and engines; collecting rental and maintenance rent payments, monitoring aircraft maintenance, monitoring and enforcing contract compliance, and accepting delivery and redelivery of aircraft and engines; and conducting ongoing lessee financial performance reviews. Its aircraft asset management services also include periodically inspecting the leased aircraft; coordinating technical modifications to aircraft to meet new lessee requirements; conducting restructuring negotiations in connection with lease defaults; repossessing aircraft and engines; arranging and monitoring insurance coverage; registering and de-registering aircraft; arranging for aircraft and engine valuations; and providing market research services. The company also provides cash management services, including treasury services, such as the financing, refinancing, hedging, and ongoing cash management of vehicles; and administrative services comprising accounting and corporate secretarial services consisting of the preparation of budgets and financial statements. In addition, it offers airframe and engine parts and supply chain solutions to airlines; maintenance, repair, and overhaul service providers; and aircraft parts distributors. As of December 31, 2021, the company had a portfolio of 2,369 owned, managed, or on order aircraft. AerCap Holdings N.V. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.

How the Company Makes Money

Aercap makes money primarily through leasing its aircraft to airlines on a long-term basis, generating consistent rental income. The company typically acquires aircraft from manufacturers and then leases them out, charging airlines a monthly fee. In addition to leasing revenues, Aercap also earns money through aircraft sales, where it sells older aircraft from its portfolio. Key revenue streams include operating leases, finance leases, and gains from the sale of aircraft. Aercap maintains significant partnerships with major airlines and aircraft manufacturers, which not only strengthens its market position but also enhances its ability to negotiate favorable leasing terms. Additionally, the company's financial strategies, such as leveraging debt financing for aircraft acquisitions, contribute to its profitability by optimizing its capital structure.

Aercap Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue growth and very high recent profitability support the score, but it is tempered by elevated leverage (large absolute debt) and weak free cash flow (negative in 2023–2025 despite strong net income), which limits financial flexibility.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded meaningfully over the period (2025: ~$8.19B vs. 2020: ~$4.49B), with particularly strong growth in 2025. Profitability is a key strength: recent net margins are very strong (2025 ~46%, 2023 ~41%), and 2025 earnings improved sharply versus 2024. The main weakness is earnings volatility—losses were recorded in 2020 and 2022, and 2024 profitability dipped before rebounding—suggesting results can swing with cycle/one-time items.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is asset-heavy with sizable equity (~$18.3B in 2025), but leverage is elevated with debt still large (~$43.6B in 2025). Leverage has improved modestly versus prior years (debt-to-equity down from ~3.25 in 2020 to ~2.38 in 2025), and returns on equity are strong in recent years (2025 ~20%). The key risk remains high absolute debt levels, which can amplify downside in weaker operating environments.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is consistently positive and fairly stable (~$5.2B–$5.4B from 2022–2025), which supports the business model. However, free cash flow is a clear weakness recently: it is negative in 2023–2025 (2025 about -$0.68B, 2024 about -$1.18B), and cash generation has not kept pace with accounting earnings (2025 free cash flow is negative relative to net income). This points to heavy reinvestment/capex timing or working-capital swings that reduce cash available to shareholders and debt reduction.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.19B	8.00B	7.58B	7.01B	4.59B
Gross Profit	4.89B	4.61B	4.34B	3.80B	1.30B
EBITDA	8.72B	4.15B	3.91B	5.79B	2.72B
Net Income	3.75B	2.10B	3.14B	-726.04M	1.00B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	71.67B	71.44B	71.27B	69.73B	74.57B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.48B	1.21B	1.63B	1.60B	1.73B
Total Debt	43.57B	45.35B	46.58B	46.67B	50.55B
Total Liabilities	53.35B	54.26B	54.69B	53.53B	57.92B
Stockholders Equity	18.32B	17.18B	16.59B	16.12B	16.57B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-681.17M	-1.18B	-970.95M	1.30B	1.90B
Operating Cash Flow	5.39B	5.44B	5.26B	5.17B	3.69B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.66B	-3.72B	-3.18B	-2.16B	-23.46B
Financing Cash Flow	-3.65B	-2.13B	-2.01B	-3.16B	20.18B

Aercap Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 149.44
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AER, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 149.44 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 146.90, above the 50-day MA of 145.02, and above the 200-day MA of 126.40, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.92 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AER.

Aercap Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WLFC	72 Outperform	$1.39B	12.19	18.91%	0.82%	27.90%	19.25%
MGRC	70 Outperform	$2.73B	17.48	13.24%	1.79%	4.77%	-35.44%
AER	68 Neutral	$24.94B	6.86	21.13%	0.74%	2.90%	67.73%
FTAI	68 Neutral	$31.37B	66.48	241.16%	0.73%	50.37%	―
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
AL	63 Neutral	$7.26B	6.98	13.60%	1.37%	9.67%	96.43%
HRI	58 Neutral	$4.66B	4,368.44	0.06%	1.79%	19.40%	-120.47%

Aercap Holdings Corporate Events

AerCap Posts Record 2025 Earnings, Boosts Dividend and Buybacks

On February 6, 2026, AerCap reported record financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, highlighted by net income of $633 million for the quarter and $3.8 billion for the year, with adjusted net income of $660 million and $2.7 billion, respectively. The company generated strong lease revenue growth, realized $819 million of gains on $3.9 billion of asset sales, received $1.5 billion of insurance and other recoveries related to the Ukraine conflict in 2025, and delivered GAAP return on equity of 21% for the year while increasing book value per share by 19% to $112.59. Reflecting confidence in its outlook and robust cash generation, AerCap returned $2.6 billion to shareholders in 2025 through buybacks and dividends, launched a new $1 billion share repurchase program in December, raised its quarterly dividend to $0.40 per share, and issued adjusted EPS guidance of $12.00–$13.00 for 2026, underscoring its strategy of disciplined capital deployment and shareholder value creation.

The most recent analyst rating on (AER) stock is a Buy with a $159.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aercap Holdings stock, see the AER Stock Forecast page.

AerCap Raises $1.75 Billion Through New Senior Notes Issuance

On January 15, 2026, AerCap’s wholly owned subsidiaries AerCap Ireland Capital DAC and AerCap Global Aviation Trust issued $900 million of 4.125% senior notes due 2029 and $850 million of 4.750% senior notes due 2033, raising a total of $1.75 billion in senior unsecured debt. The notes, fully and unconditionally guaranteed on a senior basis by AerCap Holdings N.V. and certain subsidiaries under an existing indenture structure, reinforce the aircraft lessor’s access to U.S. capital markets and provide additional long-term funding flexibility to support its aviation leasing operations and capital structure management, with the related legal and underwriting documentation incorporated into its existing shelf registration.

The most recent analyst rating on (AER) stock is a Buy with a $160.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aercap Holdings stock, see the AER Stock Forecast page.

AerCap Prices $1.75 Billion Senior Notes to Fund Aircraft Investments and Debt Repayment

On January 6, 2026, AerCap’s wholly owned subsidiaries AerCap Ireland Capital DAC and AerCap Global Aviation Trust priced a $1.75 billion senior notes offering, comprising $900 million of 4.125% notes due 2029 and $850 million of 4.750% notes due 2033, fully and unconditionally guaranteed on a senior unsecured basis by AerCap and certain subsidiaries. The company plans to use the proceeds for general corporate purposes, notably to acquire, invest in, finance or refinance aircraft assets and to repay indebtedness, a move that underscores its ongoing fleet investment and balance sheet management strategy in the competitive global aircraft leasing market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AER) stock is a Buy with a $162.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aercap Holdings stock, see the AER Stock Forecast page.

AerCap Holdings Announces $1 Billion Share Repurchase Program

On December 2, 2025, AerCap Holdings N.V. announced that its board of directors approved a share repurchase program authorizing the buyback of up to $1 billion of its ordinary shares through June 30, 2026. This strategic move, funded by the company’s cash reserves and operational cash flow, allows AerCap to potentially enhance shareholder value and optimize its capital structure, reflecting confidence in its financial health and future prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (AER) stock is a Buy with a $144.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aercap Holdings stock, see the AER Stock Forecast page.