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Aercap Holdings
(NYSE:AER)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$171.00
▲(15.97% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/04/26
The score is driven mainly by strong profitability and a constructive earnings outlook (raised guidance, strong liquidity and buybacks), supported by a low P/E valuation. Offsetting factors are elevated leverage and weak free-cash-flow conversion, while technical indicators are broadly neutral with slightly negative momentum.
Positive Factors
High Profitability & ROE
AerCap’s record adjusted earnings and near‑20% adjusted ROE demonstrate durable earnings power from lease cashflows and asset trading. Strong margins and consistent profitability support reinvestment, dividend/buyback capacity and resilience across aviation cycles over the next several months.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
AerCap’s capital‑intensive leasing model carries consistently high leverage, which constrains balance‑sheet flexibility and increases sensitivity to rising interest rates or tighter credit conditions. High debt levels raise refinancing and covenant risks over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High Profitability & ROE
AerCap’s record adjusted earnings and near‑20% adjusted ROE demonstrate durable earnings power from lease cashflows and asset trading. Strong margins and consistent profitability support reinvestment, dividend/buyback capacity and resilience across aviation cycles over the next several months.
Read all positive factors
Aercap Holdings (AER) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$23.63B
Dividend Yield0.74%
Average Volume (3M)1.26M
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.5
Beta (1Y)0.83
Revenue Growth-3.68%
EPS Growth100.38%
CountryUS
Employees698
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRental & Leasing Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)23.25
Shares Outstanding157,685,100
10 Day Avg. Volume1,139,792
30 Day Avg. Volume1,263,272
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.07
Price to Book (P/B)1.35
Price to Sales (P/S)3.02
P/FCF Ratio-36.34
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.72
Enterprise Value/Revenue7.91
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.97
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.67
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$169.14Price Target Upside14.71% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)17.19
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.46B
Aercap Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AerCap Holdings N.V., a company founded in 1995 and based in Dublin, Ireland, operates extensively in the global aviation industry. The firm specializes in the acquisition, leasing, funding, sale, and general management of commercial aircraft and ...
How the Company Makes Money
AerCap primarily makes money by acquiring aircraft (and related aviation assets such as engines and helicopters) and leasing them to airline customers under multi-year lease contracts. Its core revenue stream is lease rental income, which is typic...
Aercap Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strong operational and financial quarter with record adjusted earnings, high ROE, meaningful liquidity, disciplined capital allocation (buybacks and opportunistic orders), and an improved full-year outlook. Management acknowledged external risks—chiefly sustained elevated jet fuel and regional geopolitical disruptions—that could pressure airline profitability, used-asset values and lease rate dynamics if prolonged. However, current flight reductions remain minimal, AerCap's portfolio is heavily weighted to new-technology aircraft (limited exposure to older assets), leverage is conservative, and management emphasized readiness to pursue accretive opportunities, suggesting that positives materially outweigh the risks at this time.Positive Updates
Record Earnings and Returns
GAAP net income of $818 million ($4.96/share) and record adjusted net income of $889 million ($5.39/share). Adjusted return on equity was a record 19.4% (GAAP ROE ~18%).
Negative Updates
Fuel Price Risk and Potential Airline Stress
Management highlighted that sustained elevated jet fuel prices for 3–6+ months could pressure airline profitability and may accelerate retirement of older technology aircraft; fuel represents ~30% of airline costs and airlines have been passing through roughly 40–50% of increased fuel costs to consumers.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Earnings and Returns
GAAP net income of $818 million ($4.96/share) and record adjusted net income of $889 million ($5.39/share). Adjusted return on equity was a record 19.4% (GAAP ROE ~18%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
AerCap raised its full‑year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to approximately $14.50, with EPS excluding gains on sale increased to about $13 (the top of its prior range) and Q1 gains‑on‑sale of $1.50 already included (no further gains assumed for the rest of the year); the company now expects full‑year asset sales to exceed $3 billion (vs. prior $2–3 billion), after $1.5 billion of Q1 sales from 41 assets and $899 million of assets held for sale at quarter‑end. Q1 financials that underpin the guidance included GAAP net income of $818 million ($4.96/sh), adjusted net income of $889 million ($5.39/sh) and adjusted ROE of ~19.4%; other reported metrics: basic lease rents $1.682 billion, maintenance revenue $190 million and net maintenance contribution $138 million, net gain on sale $291 million (unlevered gain‑on‑sale margin 24% or 1.9x book), interest expense $467 million, operating cash flow $1.4 billion, secured debt/total assets 9%, average cost of debt 4.1%. Capital allocation and liquidity supporting the guidance include Q1 buybacks of $745 million (5.4 million shares), a new $1 billion repurchase authorization, a below‑target leverage ratio of 2.1x net debt/equity, ~$21 billion of liquidity (including ~ $1.5 billion cash and ~$10 billion of committed facilities), a sources‑to‑uses coverage of ~2x and roughly $10 billion of excess cash coverage, and “more than $3 billion” of excess capital.Aercap Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
54
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 8.11B | 8.19B | 8.00B | 7.58B | 7.01B | 4.59B |
| Gross Profit | 4.29B | 4.89B | 4.61B | 4.34B | 3.80B | 2.53B |
| EBITDA | 8.37B | 8.72B | 4.52B | 5.34B | 3.18B | 4.14B |
| Net Income | 3.93B | 3.75B | 2.10B | 3.14B | -726.04M | 1.00B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 71.42B | 71.67B | 71.44B | 71.27B | 69.73B | 74.57B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.58B | 1.48B | 1.21B | 1.63B | 1.60B | 1.73B |
| Total Debt | 43.04B | 43.57B | 45.35B | 46.58B | 46.67B | 50.55B |
| Total Liabilities | 53.02B | 53.35B | 54.26B | 54.69B | 53.53B | 57.92B |
| Stockholders Equity | 18.40B | 18.32B | 17.18B | 16.59B | 16.12B | 16.57B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 405.11M | -681.17M | -1.18B | -970.95M | 1.30B | 1.90B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.56B | 5.39B | 5.44B | 5.26B | 5.17B | 3.69B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 155.44M | -1.66B | -3.72B | -3.18B | -2.16B | -23.46B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.45B | -3.65B | -2.13B | -2.01B | -3.16B | 20.18B |
Aercap Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
147.45
Price Trends
142.72
Positive
142.10
Positive
138.36
Positive
Market Momentum
2.56
Negative
57.07
Neutral
57.02
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AER, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 147.45 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 146.45, above the 50-day MA of 142.72, and above the 200-day MA of 138.36, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.56 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.02 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AER.
Aercap Holdings Risk Analysis
Aercap Holdings disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Aercap Holdings reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Aercap Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $23.63B | 6.45 | 21.57% | 0.74% | -3.68% | 100.38% | |
73 Outperform | $1.70B | 13.02 | 17.33% | 0.82% | 23.13% | 12.80% | |
68 Neutral | $2.87B | 18.51 | 12.84% | 1.79% | 3.14% | -34.73% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | $23.32B | 44.15 | 181.39% | 0.73% | 47.35% | 2157.79% | |
56 Neutral | $4.97B | -557.22 | -0.26% | 1.79% | 28.39% | -105.83% |
* Industrials Sector Average
AER
Aercap Holdings
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31.27%
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Aercap Holdings Corporate Events
AerCap Raises $900 Million via 4.875% Senior Notes Due 2031
Jul 7, 2026
On July 7, 2026, AerCap Funding Designated Activity Company, a wholly owned subsidiary of AerCap Holdings N.V., issued $900 million of 4.875% Senior Notes due 2031, fully and unconditionally guaranteed on a senior unsecured basis by AerCap and cer...
AerCap Prices $900 Million Senior Notes Due 2031 to Fund Fleet Investments and Debt Repayment
Jun 29, 2026
On June 29, 2026, AerCap Funding Designated Activity Company, a wholly owned subsidiary of AerCap Holdings, priced a $900 million offering of 4.875% senior notes due 2031, which will be fully and unconditionally guaranteed on a senior unsecured ba...
AerCap Files Q1 2026 Interim Report and Declares $0.40 Quarterly Dividend
Apr 29, 2026
On April 29, 2026, AerCap furnished its interim financial report and related press release for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, providing updated financial information on its large portfolio of flight equipment and aviation assets. The filing als...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.