Aercap Holdings (AER)
NYSE:AER
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Aercap Holdings
(NYSE:AER)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$169.00
▲(16.13% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/08/26
The score is driven primarily by strong underlying profitability and a low P/E, offset by high leverage and negative free cash flow in recent years. Near-term technicals are soft and 2026 guidance points to lower earnings versus 2025, which further caps the overall rating.
Positive Factors
Market Position & Lease Durability
AerCap's scale and high lease-extension rate create durable revenue visibility and lower re-leasing risk. A large, diversified customer base and frequent transactions smooth idiosyncratic airline shocks, supporting steady cashflows and bargaining power when negotiating leases and asset dispositions.
Negative Factors
High Absolute Leverage
AerCap's large debt stock amplifies downside in weaker aviation cycles and limits balance sheet flexibility. Even with improved ratios, high absolute debt requires steady asset sales or market access to refinance maturities, raising refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity risks over the coming months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Market Position & Lease Durability
AerCap's scale and high lease-extension rate create durable revenue visibility and lower re-leasing risk. A large, diversified customer base and frequent transactions smooth idiosyncratic airline shocks, supporting steady cashflows and bargaining power when negotiating leases and asset dispositions.
Read all positive factors
Aercap Holdings (AER) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$24.29B
Dividend Yield0.74%
Average Volume (3M)1.38M
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.6
Beta (1Y)0.85
Revenue Growth2.90%
EPS Growth67.73%
CountryUS
Employees698
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRental & Leasing Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.95
Shares Outstanding166,876,540
10 Day Avg. Volume894,292
30 Day Avg. Volume1,382,471
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.07
Price to Book (P/B)1.35
Price to Sales (P/S)3.02
P/FCF Ratio-36.34
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.77
Enterprise Value/Revenue8.40
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit16.00
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.19
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$164.17Price Target Upside12.81% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)15.27
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.24B
Aercap Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AerCap Holdings N.V. engages in the lease, financing, sale, and management of commercial flight equipment in China, Hong Kong, Macau, the United States, Ireland, and internationally. The company offers aircraft asset management services, such as r...
How the Company Makes Money
Aercap makes money primarily through leasing its aircraft to airlines on a long-term basis, generating consistent rental income. The company typically acquires aircraft from manufacturers and then leases them out, charging airlines a monthly fee. ...
Aercap Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 06, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized a very strong 2025 with record revenue, earnings, operating cash flow, disciplined capital returns (repurchases and higher dividend), portfolio upgrades, and strategic growth in engines, cargo, and helicopters. Management provided a conservative 2026 outlook that excludes the sizable 2025 gains on sale and insurance-related items, resulting in materially lower near-term earnings guidance and near-term headwinds (Spirit restructuring, maintenance timing, and assumed lower other income). Despite the cautious 2026 guidance, the company’s robust liquidity, low secured leverage, strong operating cash generation, and multiple strategic initiatives support a confident long-term view.Positive Updates
Record Profitability and Earnings
Full-year 2025 GAAP net income of $3.8B ($21.30 per share) and adjusted net income of $2.7B ($15.37 per share), both company records; GAAP ROE 21% and adjusted ROE 15%.
Negative Updates
Guidance Reflects Lower Recoveries and No Gains on Sale
2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $12–$13 (excludes gains on sale) implies a meaningful decline versus 2025 adjusted EPS of $15.37 (midpoint guidance ~12.5 represents ~-18.7% vs 2025); management cited that 2025 included ~$3.95 per share of gains on sale not assumed in 2026 guidance.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Profitability and Earnings
Full-year 2025 GAAP net income of $3.8B ($21.30 per share) and adjusted net income of $2.7B ($15.37 per share), both company records; GAAP ROE 21% and adjusted ROE 15%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For 2026 AerCap guided adjusted EPS of $12.00–$13.00 per share (explicitly excluding any gains on sale), with GAAP net income of roughly $1.7 billion and adjusted net income of about $2.0 billion after adding back ~ $300 million of purchase‑accounting adjustments (noting 2025 included $3.95 of gains on sale per share that were not assumed for 2026). They expect lease rents ≈ $6.7 billion, maintenance revenues ≈ $700 million and other income ≈ $200 million for total revenues around $7.6 billion; expenses include depreciation & amortization ≈ $2.6 billion, interest expense ≈ $2.0 billion and leasing/SG&A/other ≈ $1.2 billion. The company is forecasting cash CapEx of ~$5.2 billion, asset sales of $2–$3 billion, equity earnings of ≈ $200 million (primarily SES), and an effective tax rate of 15.5% (vs. 13.6% in 2025), noting other income is projected ~ $0.45 lower and the ETR change reduces EPS by ~$0.30; guidance assumes no additional Ukraine recoveries and flags that CapEx and sales volumes can vary with OEM deliveries and market demand.Aercap Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 8.19B | 8.00B | 7.58B | 7.01B | 4.59B |
| Gross Profit | 4.89B | 4.61B | 4.34B | 3.80B | 1.30B |
| EBITDA | 8.72B | 4.15B | 3.91B | 5.79B | 2.72B |
| Net Income | 3.75B | 2.10B | 3.14B | -726.04M | 1.00B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 71.67B | 71.44B | 71.27B | 69.73B | 74.57B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.48B | 1.21B | 1.63B | 1.60B | 1.73B |
| Total Debt | 43.57B | 45.35B | 46.58B | 46.67B | 50.55B |
| Total Liabilities | 53.35B | 54.26B | 54.69B | 53.53B | 57.92B |
| Stockholders Equity | 18.32B | 17.18B | 16.59B | 16.12B | 16.57B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -681.17M | -1.18B | -970.95M | 1.30B | 1.90B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.39B | 5.44B | 5.26B | 5.17B | 3.69B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.66B | -3.72B | -3.18B | -2.16B | -23.46B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.65B | -2.13B | -2.01B | -3.16B | 20.18B |
Aercap Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
145.53
Price Trends
142.28
Positive
141.31
Positive
130.21
Positive
Market Momentum
0.70
Negative
60.00
Neutral
82.47
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AER, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 145.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 137.46, above the 50-day MA of 142.28, and above the 200-day MA of 130.21, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.70 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.47 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AER.
Aercap Holdings Risk Analysis
Aercap Holdings disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Aercap Holdings reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Aercap Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $2.81B | 12.96 | 13.21% | 1.79% | 4.77% | -35.44% | |
68 Neutral | $7.28B | 9.92 | 13.23% | 1.37% | 9.67% | 96.43% | |
68 Neutral | $24.29B | 6.60 | 20.95% | 0.74% | 2.90% | 67.73% | |
64 Neutral | $1.38B | 8.05 | 16.94% | 0.82% | 27.90% | 19.25% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
60 Neutral | $25.79B | 40.29 | 256.98% | 0.73% | 50.37% | ― | |
47 Neutral | $3.44B | 4,644.29 | 0.06% | 1.79% | 19.40% | -120.47% |
* Industrials Sector Average
AER
Aercap Holdings
145.53
50.68
53.44%
AL
Air Lease
65.00
23.01
54.79%
HRI
Herc Holdings
102.96
-13.73
-11.77%
MGRC
Mcgrath Rentcorp
114.11
9.14
8.71%
WLFC
Willis Lease Finance
202.98
64.10
46.16%
FTAI
FTAI Aviation
251.42
153.19
155.96%
Aercap Holdings Corporate Events
AerCap Posts Record 2025 Earnings, Boosts Dividend and Buybacks
Feb 6, 2026
On February 6, 2026, AerCap reported record financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, highlighted by net income of $633 million for the quarter and $3.8 billion for the year, with adjusted net income of $660 m...
AerCap Raises $1.75 Billion Through New Senior Notes Issuance
Jan 15, 2026
On January 15, 2026, AerCap’s wholly owned subsidiaries AerCap Ireland Capital DAC and AerCap Global Aviation Trust issued $900 million of 4.125% senior notes due 2029 and $850 million of 4.750% senior notes due 2033, raising a total of $1.7...
AerCap Prices $1.75 Billion Senior Notes to Fund Aircraft Investments and Debt Repayment
Jan 6, 2026
On January 6, 2026, AerCap’s wholly owned subsidiaries AerCap Ireland Capital DAC and AerCap Global Aviation Trust priced a $1.75 billion senior notes offering, comprising $900 million of 4.125% notes due 2029 and $850 million of 4.750% note...
AerCap Holdings Announces $1 Billion Share Repurchase Program
Dec 3, 2025
On December 2, 2025, AerCap Holdings N.V. announced that its board of directors approved a share repurchase program authorizing the buyback of up to $1 billion of its ordinary shares through June 30, 2026. This strategic move, funded by the compan...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.