Five Star (FSBC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $846.58M
• Dividend Yield: 2.18%
• Average Volume (3M): 61.66K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.82
• Revenue Growth: 22.24%
• EPS Growth: 18.63%
• Country: US
• Employees: 205
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.83
• Shares Outstanding: 21,367,388
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 72,257
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 61,664
• PEG Ratio: 0.44
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.70
• Price to Sales (P/S): 116.21
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.56
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.85
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.19
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.63
• 1Y Price Target: $41.00
• Price Target Upside: 3.48% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: $44.00 ▲(11.06% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (profitability, improved leverage, and healthy returns) and supportive technical momentum (price above key moving averages with positive MACD). Valuation is reasonable with a modest dividend, while earnings-call takeaways were positive overall but tempered by rising expenses and guidance that deposit growth should normalize.

Positive Factors

Loan & Deposit Growth

Sustained, large-scale organic loan and deposit growth strengthens the core net interest income engine and funding mix. Durable growth in core deposits reduces reliance on wholesale funding, supports continued lending capacity and enables predictable interest spread generation over the next several quarters.

Stronger Balance Sheet / De‑leveraging

Material de‑leveraging and rising equity provide a meaningful de‑risking of the franchise, improving capital cushions and regulatory flexibility. Stronger capitalization supports prudent lending, dividend increases, and potential opportunistic growth without materially increasing funding stress.

High Asset Quality & Capitalization

Exceptionally low credit losses and healthy capital ratios indicate conservative underwriting and resilient portfolio quality. Low NPLs reduce provisioning volatility and support consistent earnings and dividend capacity, making credit risk a smaller drag on long‑term profitability.

Negative Factors

Margin Normalization

Net interest margin and profit margins appear to be reverting from elevated peaks, which can persist as structural headwinds if loan mix or funding costs shift. Margin compression reduces incremental earnings leverage from asset growth and increases sensitivity to funding cost changes over months.

Rising Noninterest Expense

Increases in salaries and headcount-driven operating costs can erode efficiency if revenue growth slows. Persistent expense growth risks a higher efficiency ratio over time, requiring sustained revenue expansion or tighter cost control to maintain returns and dividend support.

Deposit Growth Normalization & Paydown Risk

Management expects deposit growth to normalize, and sector-specific payoffs create volatility in loan balances. Reduced deposit momentum raises funding cost and growth risks, potentially pressuring loan growth and forcing greater reliance on pricier funding or slower asset expansion over coming quarters.

Five Star Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Five Star Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Five Star Bank that provides a range of banking products and services to small and medium-sized businesses, professionals, and individuals. The company accepts various deposits, such as money market, noninterest-bearing and interest checking accounts, savings accounts, and time deposits. Its loan products include commercial and residential real estate loans; commercial loans; commercial land loans; farmland loans; commercial and residential construction loans; and consumer and other loans. The company also offers debit cards; and remote deposit capture, online and mobile banking, and direct deposit services. It operates through seven branch offices and two loan production offices in Northern California. Five Star Bancorp was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Rancho Cordova, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Five Star (FSBC) generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from its hospitality services, which include room bookings, food and beverage sales, and event management services. The company charges competitive rates for its accommodations and upsells additional services such as spa treatments and guided tours. Additionally, FSBC collaborates with corporate clients for event hosting and catering services, creating significant revenue opportunities from large-scale events. Strategic partnerships with travel agencies and online booking platforms further enhance visibility and sales, driving more customers to its properties and services.

Five Star Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Solid profitability and multi-year revenue growth, with materially improved leverage (debt-to-equity down to ~0.20) and healthy ROE (~13.9%). Offsetting this, growth and margins have normalized versus prior peaks and TTM free cash flow is down ~25.8% versus the prior period despite strong cash conversion (~99% of net income).

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is higher than prior years (TTM $254.4M vs. 2024 $212.2M vs. 2023 $180.7M), showing a solid multi-year growth trajectory. Profitability remains strong for the period with healthy TTM operating and net margins (about 32.6% EBIT margin and 23.3% net margin). However, margins have compressed versus the unusually high levels seen in 2021–2022, and the most recent revenue growth pace is much slower than the outsized growth posted in 2023–2024, suggesting the company is transitioning from a high-growth phase to a more normalized run-rate.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has improved materially from 2022–2023 levels, with debt-to-equity down to ~0.20 in TTM (and similar in 2024), which is a meaningful de-risking versus 2023 (~0.87). Equity has also grown (TTM ~$445.8M vs. 2024 ~$396.6M). Returns remain healthy (TTM return on equity ~13.9%), though below the peak levels seen in earlier years (notably 2020–2022), indicating profitability on the equity base has moderated even as the balance sheet has strengthened.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is steady, with TTM operating cash flow of ~$52.1M and free cash flow of ~$51.5M—roughly in line with 2024 and well above 2023. Free cash flow also tracks reported earnings closely in TTM (free cash flow is ~99% of net income), which is a positive quality signal. The main weakness is momentum: TTM free cash flow declined about 25.8% versus the prior period, and the cash-flow-to-assets indicator remains very low (consistent with a bank balance sheet), limiting the cushion implied by cash flow relative to the asset base.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	255.47M	212.20M	180.70M	123.79M	87.82M
Gross Profit	148.74M	118.01M	113.20M	102.24M	82.15M
EBITDA	83.73M	66.60M	68.23M	64.49M	47.76M
Net Income	61.61M	45.67M	47.73M	44.80M	42.44M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.75B	4.05B	3.59B	3.23B	2.56B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	0.00	454.66M	435.52M	385.83M	588.60M
Total Debt	97.78M	80.75M	249.35M	177.85M	28.39M
Total Liabilities	4.31B	3.66B	3.31B	2.97B	2.32B
Stockholders Equity	445.83M	396.62M	285.77M	252.82M	235.05M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	51.16M	38.26M	45.49M	27.94M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	51.79M	38.91M	45.98M	28.66M
Investing Cash Flow	3.77B	-446.74M	-279.28M	-836.92M	-455.01M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	425.73M	301.95M	625.61M	561.19M

Five Star Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 39.62
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FSBC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 39.62 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.72, above the 50-day MA of 36.50, and above the 200-day MA of 31.93, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.81 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FSBC.

Five Star Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FSBC	76 Outperform	$846.58M	13.66	13.95%	2.18%	22.24%	18.63%
MPB	76 Outperform	$760.17M	12.94	7.31%	2.58%	12.09%	-15.97%
TRST	75 Outperform	$799.60M	13.35	8.35%	3.48%	5.75%	20.52%
BFST	75 Outperform	$834.26M	10.10	10.39%	2.12%	17.99%	11.08%
THFF	74 Outperform	$772.19M	10.43	12.46%	3.19%	16.57%	69.64%
GSBC	69 Neutral	$686.80M	9.92	11.18%	2.48%	0.67%	17.88%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

Five Star Corporate Events

Five Star Bancorp Posts Strong Q4 and 2025 Results

On January 26, 2026, Five Star Bancorp reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, with net income rising to $17.6 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, up from $16.3 million in the prior quarter and $13.3 million a year earlier, and full-year 2025 net income increasing to $61.6 million from $45.7 million in 2024. Key performance metrics improved, including higher returns on average assets and equity, a lower efficiency ratio, and earnings per share climbing to $2.90 for 2025, supported by 15% year-over-year growth in total loans, 18% growth in total deposits and a reduction in wholesale funding. Management highlighted expanding franchise reach with a new Walnut Creek office and an enlarged Agribusiness vertical, as well as a higher shareholder dividend, underscoring the bank’s disciplined expense control, conservative underwriting and strengthened community-bank positioning, further validated by multiple industry and leadership awards and recognitions during 2024–2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (FSBC) stock is a Buy with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Five Star stock, see the FSBC Stock Forecast page.

Five Star Bancorp Raises Quarterly Cash Dividend Payout

On January 16, 2026, Five Star Bancorp announced that its board had declared a fourth-quarter cash dividend of $0.25 per share on its voting common stock, payable on February 9, 2026 to shareholders of record as of February 2, 2026. The $0.05 increase, marking the first dividend raise since April 2023, underscored the company’s continued strong financial performance, the success of its organic growth strategy, and its ongoing commitment to stakeholders, signaling confidence in its earnings power and balance sheet strength.

The most recent analyst rating on (FSBC) stock is a Buy with a $43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Five Star stock, see the FSBC Stock Forecast page.

Five Star Bancorp Schedules Fourth-Quarter 2025 Results Webcast

On January 13, 2026, Five Star Bancorp announced it plans to report financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, after the market closes on January 26, 2026, and will hold a live webcast for analysts and investors to review the results on January 27, 2026. The scheduled disclosure and webcast underscore the company’s ongoing engagement with the investment community and provide stakeholders with a defined timeline to assess Five Star’s recent financial performance and outlook within the regional banking sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (FSBC) stock is a Buy with a $39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Five Star stock, see the FSBC Stock Forecast page.

Five Star Bank Enters Change in Control Agreements

On November 4, 2025, Five Star Bank entered into change in control agreements with two of its executive officers, Heather Luck and Michael Rizzo. These agreements outline the compensation and benefits the executives will receive if their employment is terminated following a qualifying change in control, including severance payments and accelerated vesting of equity awards. The agreements are set to expire on December 31, 2028, if no qualifying change in control occurs.

The most recent analyst rating on (FSBC) stock is a Hold with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Five Star stock, see the FSBC Stock Forecast page.

Five Star Bancorp Reports Strong Q3 2025 Earnings

Five Star Bancorp reported a net income of $16.3 million for the third quarter of 2025, marking an increase from previous quarters. The company achieved significant growth in loans and deposits, with a notable increase in non-wholesale deposits. The bank’s efficiency ratio improved, and a new office was opened in Walnut Creek, California, to meet regional demand. The company’s strategy of organic growth and focus on customer experience has driven its financial performance, positioning it well in the banking industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (FSBC) stock is a Buy with a $41.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Five Star stock, see the FSBC Stock Forecast page.