Friedman Industries (FRD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $123.75M
• Dividend Yield: 0.75%
• Average Volume (3M): 22.76K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.70
• Revenue Growth: 8.72%
• EPS Growth: 43.14%
• Country: US
• Employees: 268
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Steel
• EPS (TTM): 0.43
• Shares Outstanding: 7,112,182
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 15,212
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 22,764
• PEG Ratio: -0.27
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.78
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.23
• P/FCF Ratio: -10.99
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.76
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.37
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.36
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.31
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $18.50 ▼(-4.64% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/18/26

FRD scores mid-range primarily due to mixed financials: strong balance-sheet conservatism offsets weak cash flow and compressed margins. Technicals are a notable headwind with broad weakness versus key moving averages and negative momentum. Valuation is reasonable, and the Sinton expansion is a constructive long-term catalyst, but near-term execution/cash conversion remain key risks.

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheet

Very low TTM leverage and a sizable equity base give Friedman durable financial flexibility to fund operations, withstand cyclical downturns, and execute strategic projects. This balance-sheet conservatism reduces refinancing risk and supports capital allocation optionality over the next 2–6 months.

Sinton expansion adds fabrication capability

Adding laser cut-to-length and mill-adjacent fabrication creates a structural shift toward higher value-added services. This strengthens customer ties, improves supply-chain efficiency and can sustainably enhance mix and margins if executed, supporting long-term competitive positioning.

Recent revenue rebound

A meaningful TTM revenue rebound indicates regained demand or market share, improving fixed-cost absorption and utilization. Sustained top-line momentum can underpin margin recovery and strengthen cash conversion potential if cost structure and mix are managed over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Weak cash generation

Negative operating and free cash flows materially constrain internal funding for capex, working capital and the Sinton expansion. Persistent cash burn increases reliance on liquidity or external financing, limiting strategic flexibility and raising execution risk over coming quarters.

Compressed margins and earnings volatility

Thin gross and net margins reduce the buffer versus raw-material cost swings and price competition. Coupled with historical volatility, this compresses retained earnings and makes consistent reinvestment, dividend support, and margin-led growth more challenging across business cycles.

Cyclical steel exposure

Structural exposure to steel market cycles and end-market demand (construction, industrial) drives revenue and working-capital swings. This cyclicality undermines predictability of cash flow and margins, heightening execution risk for strategic investments during downturns.

Friedman Industries Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Friedman Industries, Incorporated engages in steel processing, pipe manufacturing and processing, and the steel and pipe distribution businesses the United States. It operates in two segments, Coil and Tubular. The Coil segment is involved in the conversion of steel coils into flat sheet and plate steel cut to customer specifications and reselling steel coils. This segment also processes customer-owned coils on a fee basis. The company sells coil products and processing services to approximately 230 customers located primarily in the midwestern, southwestern and southeastern regions of the United States. Its principal customers for these products and services are steel distributors and customers manufacturing steel products, such as steel buildings, railroad cars, barges, tanks and containers, trailers, component parts and other fabricated steel products. The Tubular segment manufactures line and oil country pipes, as well as pipes for structural applications. This segment sells its tubular products principally to steel and pipe distributors through its own sales force. Friedman Industries, Incorporated was incorporated in 1965 and is headquartered in Longview, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Friedman Industries makes money primarily by buying steel and converting it into higher-value products and services sold to customers. Its key revenue streams generally come from: (1) Coil products: the company purchases steel coil and generates revenue by processing it (e.g., slitting coils into narrower widths and cutting-to-length into sheets/plate) and selling the processed steel to customers. Revenue in this segment is driven by shipment volumes, the spread between selling prices and input steel costs, and fees/embedded margin for processing services. (2) Tubular products: the company manufactures (and/or further processes) steel pipe and tube products and sells them to customers, with revenue influenced by demand in end markets such as construction and industrial applications, product mix, and the margin between selling prices and steel input and conversion costs. Across both segments, profitability is sensitive to steel price movements, inventory costs, operating utilization, and customer demand cycles; specific major partnerships or customer concentration details are null.

Friedman Industries Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet strength is a key positive (very low TTM leverage and solid equity base), but cash generation is a major drag (TTM operating cash flow slightly negative and free cash flow materially negative). Profitability has also compressed versus prior years (thin gross and net margins), despite a strong TTM revenue rebound.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue rebounded strongly (+14.5%), but profitability is thinner than prior years: gross margin fell to ~6.7% and net margin to ~2.8% versus healthier levels in 2022–2024. Annual results show meaningful volatility (2025 annual revenue down and profits compressed vs 2024), consistent with a cyclical steel environment—good top-line momentum recently, but weaker pricing/mix and less stable earnings power.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is very conservative in TTM (debt-to-equity ~0.03) and equity is sizable relative to the asset base, indicating strong balance-sheet flexibility. While debt was higher in recent annual periods (debt-to-equity ~0.30–0.38 in 2023–2025 annual), the overall profile still looks manageable, and returns on equity have been solid across the cycle (TTM ~12%, peaking much higher in 2022–2024).

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the weak spot: TTM operating cash flow is slightly negative and free cash flow is materially negative, following negative free cash flow in 2024 and 2025 annual periods. While 2023 showed very strong cash inflows (positive operating and free cash flow), the recent swing back to cash burn suggests working-capital/capex pressures and reduces near-term financial flexibility despite reported profits.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	584.35M	444.60M	516.25M	547.54M	285.24M	126.10M
Gross Profit	50.00M	45.48M	72.42M	69.98M	40.99M	23.59M
EBITDA	26.21M	13.94M	29.46M	32.93M	29.84M	16.76M
Net Income	15.63M	6.08M	17.34M	21.34M	14.07M	11.42M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	311.86M	226.82M	230.02M	199.31M	159.28M	95.01M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.00M	3.69M	2.89M	2.99M	2.60M	8.19M
Total Debt	97.13M	50.48M	43.13M	34.45M	18.82M	2.06M
Total Liabilities	169.65M	94.40M	102.54M	83.88M	79.59M	29.67M
Stockholders Equity	142.21M	132.43M	127.47M	115.43M	79.69M	65.34M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-7.45M	-9.41M	-813.00K	47.44M	-21.46M	3.82M
Operating Cash Flow	-658.00K	-4.41M	4.98M	63.89M	-13.40M	8.43M
Investing Cash Flow	-51.63M	-3.43M	-5.80M	-88.19M	-7.92M	-4.59M
Financing Cash Flow	54.57M	6.09M	1.34M	13.56M	17.25M	-701.91K

Friedman Industries Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 19.40
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FRD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 19.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.99, above the 50-day MA of 18.96, and above the 200-day MA of 19.01, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.56 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FRD.

Friedman Industries Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MSB	69 Neutral	$384.68M	40.46	79.30%	19.32%	-78.78%	-81.27%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
FRD	58 Neutral	$123.75M	11.73	11.34%	0.75%	8.72%	43.14%
HUDI	48 Neutral	$17.45M	-13.91	-1.85%	―	-20.24%	-119.83%
ACNT	46 Neutral	$114.77M	-27.96	-6.29%	―	-29.03%	―

Friedman Industries Corporate Events

Friedman Industries Expands Sinton Facility for Advanced Fabrication

On March 17, 2026, Friedman Industries announced plans to expand its facility on Steel Dynamics’ campus in Sinton, Texas by enlarging the building and installing laser cutting equipment to add new fabrication capabilities, with completion targeted for the fourth quarter of 2026. The investment is designed to support customers’ evolving processing needs, offer first-stage cut-to-length sheet processing directly at a mill-adjacent service center and enable Friedman to capture more value-added services, which management says should enhance margins, improve supply-chain efficiency and further strengthen its strategic market position and customer relationships.

Since its Sinton facility was completed in 2022, Friedman reports it has developed a strong reputation for quality and benefited from its partnership with Steel Dynamics, and the new expansion reflects management’s confidence in additional market opportunities. The company frames the Sinton project as part of a broader strategy of disciplined capital investment, operational excellence and service platform enhancement, signaling a continued push to deepen its role in metals processing and fabrication for industrial customers.

The most recent analyst rating on (FRD) stock is a Hold with a $18.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Friedman Industries stock, see the FRD Stock Forecast page.