Rexel SA (RXL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €10.64B
• Dividend Yield: 3.61%
• Average Volume (3M): 681.50K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.27
• Revenue Growth: 2.16%
• EPS Growth: -64.02%
• Country: FR
• Employees: 26,706
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Technology Distributors
• EPS (TTM): 1.16
• Shares Outstanding: 296,096,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 683,520
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 681,505
• PEG Ratio: 0.22
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.84
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.51
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.24
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €38.17
• Price Target Upside: 5.24% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.48
• Revenue Forecast (FY): €20.01B

• Rating: 70 Neutral
• Price Target: €40.00 ▲(10.28% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/18/26

The score is driven primarily by steady underlying financial quality (especially consistent free cash flow) tempered by 2025 revenue decline and moderately rising leverage. Technicals add support due to a positive trend and momentum signals, while valuation is fair with a supportive dividend yield but no clear discount.

Positive Factors

Consistent free cash flow

Rexel’s consistent and improving free cash flow (FCF up ~15.8% in 2025 and ~0.82x net income) supports durable capital allocation: funds dividends, working capital and organic investment. Over 2–6 months, strong FCF underpins resilience to cyclical revenue swings and gradual debt reduction.

Broad distribution network and services

A large branch and online distribution footprint plus logistics and technical services creates stickiness with contractors, industrial and energy customers. This diversified, service-led model supports recurring demand, cross-sell opportunities and competitive differentiation over a multi-month horizon.

Stable gross margins

Steady gross margins in the mid‑20% range provide structural cushion against top-line volatility, helping preserve gross profit even when revenue fluctuates. This margin stability supports consistent service delivery and reinvestment in operations across business cycles.

Negative Factors

2025 revenue decline

An ~8.3% revenue decline in 2025 erodes scale and pressures operating leverage. If top-line weakness persists, it can compress margins, reduce bargaining power with suppliers, and constrain investment in growth initiatives, limiting medium-term earnings recovery prospects.

Rising leverage

Leverage rising to near parity with equity (debt-to-equity ~0.94) reduces financial flexibility and increases sensitivity to rate shocks. With operating cash flow covering only a modest portion of debt, deleveraging is likely gradual, limiting ability to fund M&A or absorb prolonged downturns.

Cyclical, volatile profitability

Volatile net margins and a history that includes a loss year signal earnings sensitivity to economic cycles. This increases uncertainty around sustainable returns and capital allocation decisions, making medium-term cash dividends and growth financing less predictable.

Rexel SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Rexel S.A., together with its subsidiaries, distributes electrical products and services for the residential, commercial, and industrial energy markets worldwide. The company offers smart cameras, sensors, controllers, and monitoring software; light sources, lights, and control switches; climate control products, including heat pumps, air conditioning, and water heaters; fire alarms, surveillance equipment, access controls devices, and emergency lightings; and connection cables, and switches and routers, as well as enclosures, mounts, and racks. It also provides solar modules and inverters; connected lighting, intelligent home system, home control touch screen, and smart thermostat products; residential chargers, commercial stations, and charging cables for electric vehicles; electric motors, variable speed drives, programmable logic controllers, and computers and operator interface; and fastening systems, electrical power and control, and valves and instrumentation products. The company offers products, services, and solutions in the fields of technical supply, automation, and energy management related to the construction, renovation, maintenance, and production. It operates a network of approximately 1,900 branches in 24 countries. The company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Paris, France.

How the Company Makes Money

Rexel generates revenue primarily through the sale of electrical products and solutions to professionals in various sectors, including construction, industry, and energy. The company's revenue model is structured around direct sales, where they supply products to contractors, electricians, and businesses through their extensive network of branches and online platforms. Key revenue streams include the sale of electrical equipment, automation systems, and services related to energy efficiency and sustainability. Significant partnerships with manufacturers and suppliers enhance their product offerings and enable competitive pricing, while their focus on value-added services, such as logistics and technical support, helps to differentiate their offerings and build customer loyalty.

Rexel SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are solid but mixed: cash flow is consistently positive and improved in 2025, supporting resilience. Offsetting this, revenue declined in 2025 and profitability has been cyclical, while leverage has risen to a moderate level, reducing balance-sheet flexibility.

Income Statement

Revenue has been fairly stable over the last several years, but growth turned negative in 2025 (down ~8.3% year over year) after modest growth in 2024. Profitability is positive and improved in 2025 versus 2024 (net margin ~3.0% vs ~1.8%), but remains below 2022–2023 levels, and margins have shown some volatility (including a loss year in 2020). Gross margin is steady around the mid‑20% range, supporting resilience, but overall earnings power looks somewhat cyclical and recently pressured.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is moderate: debt is roughly in line with equity in 2025 (debt-to-equity ~0.94), up from 2023–2024 levels, which reduces financial flexibility. Equity remains sizable and relatively stable across the period, and total assets are steady, indicating no major balance sheet deterioration. However, the rising leverage trend into 2025 and the business’s historically variable profitability suggest the balance sheet is adequate but not particularly conservative.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength: operating cash flow and free cash flow are consistently positive across all years shown, with free cash flow generally tracking a large portion of earnings (about 0.82x net income in 2025). Free cash flow growth rebounded strongly in 2025 (up ~15.8%) after a decline in 2024. The main watch-out is that operating cash flow is relatively modest versus total debt (coverage around ~0.19x in 2025), implying that deleveraging would likely be gradual rather than rapid.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	19.43B	19.41B	19.29B	19.15B	18.70B	14.69B
Gross Profit	4.83B	4.87B	4.80B	4.51B	4.87B	3.87B
EBITDA	1.19B	1.49B	1.32B	1.60B	1.70B	1.19B
Net Income	247.60M	588.90M	339.10M	774.70M	922.30M	597.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	14.06B	14.37B	14.41B	13.65B	12.91B	11.55B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	439.30M	1.04B	883.30M	912.70M	895.40M	573.50M
Total Debt	4.83B	5.09B	4.73B	4.18B	3.55B	3.30B
Total Liabilities	8.92B	8.96B	8.84B	8.12B	7.63B	6.99B
Stockholders Equity	5.13B	5.39B	5.56B	5.53B	5.28B	4.56B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	561.80M	650.30M	744.80M	783.90M	708.70M	608.30M
Operating Cash Flow	707.10M	795.80M	876.90M	942.10M	840.10M	717.60M
Investing Cash Flow	-442.80M	-400.70M	-565.40M	-709.30M	-182.10M	-542.30M
Financing Cash Flow	-224.40M	-215.70M	-363.60M	-200.80M	-286.60M	-299.70M

Rexel SA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 36.27
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FR:RXL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 36.27 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.01, above the 50-day MA of 35.35, and above the 200-day MA of 29.76, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.35 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.66 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for FR:RXL.

Rexel SA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ELIS	76 Outperform	$6.21B	17.23	10.25%	1.88%	4.83%	52.47%
RXL	70 Neutral	€10.64B	18.46	4.63%	3.61%	2.16%	-64.02%
SPIE	66 Neutral	€8.87B	43.44	10.66%	2.14%	10.87%	-10.35%
MRN	63 Neutral	€661.52M	13.68	6.15%	3.94%	0.23%	-35.65%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
SAMS	60 Neutral	€429.03M	22.77	―	6.56%	7.61%	-56.24%
IDL	56 Neutral	€2.59B	44.67	11.18%	―	18.03%	3.43%