Gecina (GFC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €5.80B
• Dividend Yield: 6.39%
• Average Volume (3M): 157.04K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.47
• Revenue Growth: 3.84%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: FR
• Employees: 473
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Office
• EPS (TTM): 3.27
• Shares Outstanding: 76,792,336
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 160,856
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 157,045
• PEG Ratio: 0.30
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.57
• Price to Sales (P/S): 6.97
• P/FCF Ratio: -12.20
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €100.23
• Price Target Upside: 27.76% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 6.73
• Revenue Forecast (FY): €720.18M

• Rating: 59 Neutral
• Price Target: €78.00 ▼(-0.57% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/18/26

The score is driven primarily by a mixed financial profile: strong reported margins and stable leverage are tempered by earnings volatility and, most importantly, weakened cash generation with negative free cash flow in 2025. Technicals also weigh on the score given a clear downtrend (price below key moving averages and negative MACD), while valuation is a positive offset thanks to a moderate P/E and a high dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Improved profitability in 2025

Gecina reported materially stronger gross, operating and net margins in 2025 versus 2024. Durable margin improvement increases free operating cash potential from core leasing activities, supports payout capacity and provides a cushion versus cyclical rent or occupancy swings over the next 2–6 months.

Moderate leverage and large equity base

Debt-to-equity around 0.65 is moderate for a major REIT and consistent with recent years, implying manageable refinancing and covenant risk. A large equity base provides long-term funding stability and room to access capital markets if needed without immediate leverage stress.

Prime urban, diversified real-estate portfolio

Focus on high-quality Paris assets and a mix of offices, residential and student housing gives structural demand advantages. Prime locations and diversified leasing streams support occupancy resilience, predictable long-term rental income and easier asset rotation or redevelopment.

Negative Factors

Weakening cash generation; negative FCF

A shift to negative free cash flow in 2025 signals structural pressure on internal funding for capex, developments or distributions. Persistently weak cash conversion raises the probability of increased external financing, dividend pressure or curtailed reinvestment over coming quarters.

Revenue stagnation and earnings volatility

Flat or slightly declining revenues coupled with marked volatility (large 2023 loss) reduce predictability of recurring cash flows. For a REIT reliant on steady lease income, stagnating top line and episodic losses undermine multi-quarter planning and investor confidence in payout consistency.

Elevated absolute debt load and modest ROE

While leverage ratios are moderate, the absolute debt stock remains elevated and ROE is modest, limiting financial flexibility. High nominal debt increases sensitivity to rate moves and earnings shocks, potentially raising interest costs and constraining strategic investments or buybacks.

Gecina Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Gecina operates innovative and sustainable living spaces. The Group owns, manages and develops Europe's leading office portfolio, with nearly 97% located in the Paris Region, and a portfolio of residential assets and student residences, with over 9,000 apartments. These portfolios are valued at 20 billion euros at end-June 2020. Gecina has firmly established its focus on innovation and its human approach at the heart of its strategy to create value and deliver on its purpose: Empowering shared human experiences at the heart of our sustainable spaces. For our 100,000 clients, this ambition is supported by our client-centric brand YouFirst. It is also positioned at the heart of UtilesEnsemble, our label setting out our commitment to the environment, to people and to the quality of life in cities. Gecina is a French real estate investment trust (SIIC) listed on Euronext Paris, and is part of the SBF 120, CAC Next 20, CAC Large 60, Euronext 100, FTSE4Good, DJSI Europe and World, Stoxx Global ESG Leaders and Vigeo indices. In 2020, Gecina was awarded the maximum A rating in the CDP climate change rankings.

How the Company Makes Money

Gecina generates revenue primarily through the leasing of its properties. The company earns rental income from long-term leases with businesses and individuals who occupy their office and residential spaces. Additionally, Gecina benefits from property sales and development projects, where it can realize profits from the appreciation of its real estate assets. The company also engages in strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its market presence and operational efficiencies. Factors such as location desirability, occupancy rates, and the overall health of the real estate market in France significantly contribute to Gecina's earnings.

Gecina Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Reported profitability is strong in 2025 with improved margins versus 2024 and generally stable leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.65). Offsetting this, results have been volatile (including a large 2023 loss), revenue is essentially flat/slightly down in 2025, and cash flow is the key weakness: operating cash generation weakened and free cash flow turned negative in 2025.

Income Statement

Profitability is strong in the most recent annual period (2025) with high gross and operating margins and a solid net margin, improving versus 2024. However, revenue has been essentially flat over time and slightly down in 2025, and results show meaningful volatility highlighted by a large loss in 2023, which tempers confidence in earnings stability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet appears generally stable for a REIT, with moderate leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.65 in 2025, broadly consistent with recent years) and a large equity base. Key watchouts are the still-elevated absolute debt load and relatively modest return on equity in 2024–2025 after a sharply negative year in 2023, indicating sensitivity to valuation/earnings swings.

Cash Flow

Operating cash generation is positive but has weakened in 2025 versus 2024, and cash conversion looks pressured as operating cash flow is low relative to net income in 2024–2025. Most notably, free cash flow turned negative in 2025 after being positive in prior years, signaling higher spending or working-capital pressure and reducing financial flexibility near term.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	858.58M	854.08M	835.69M	772.05M	762.01M
Gross Profit	662.73M	628.88M	621.76M	569.72M	616.15M
EBITDA	554.91M	414.63M	-1.69B	263.77M	473.11M
Net Income	448.20M	309.76M	-1.79B	169.58M	849.29M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	18.02B	17.92B	17.65B	20.68B	20.44B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	77.94M	179.04M	143.72M	50.57M	15.10M
Total Debt	6.88B	6.76B	6.43B	7.23B	6.91B
Total Liabilities	7.44B	7.40B	7.05B	7.90B	7.46B
Stockholders Equity	10.56B	10.51B	10.58B	12.76B	12.96B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-490.78M	145.18M	218.03M	149.61M	146.73M
Operating Cash Flow	479.02M	599.85M	449.17M	390.86M	390.15M
Investing Cash Flow	-210.09M	-405.94M	882.93M	-266.16M	192.59M
Financing Cash Flow	-370.03M	-158.58M	-1.24B	-89.23M	-741.76M

Gecina Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 78.45
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FR:GFC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 78.45 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 76.98, above the 50-day MA of 78.41, and below the 200-day MA of 83.65, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.38 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.30 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for FR:GFC.

Gecina Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
COVH	68 Neutral	€3.63B	11.06	6.03%	6.49%	21.24%	241.67%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
COV	61 Neutral	€6.92B	9.32	5.11%	6.37%	8.36%	―
URW	60 Neutral	€15.21B	11.98	―	3.80%	4.09%	―
GFC	59 Neutral	€5.80B	12.95	4.93%	6.39%	3.84%	―
ICAD	52 Neutral	€1.62B	-13.20	-4.49%	20.25%	-6.91%	80.39%